Lero, February 5, 2018 msika waukulu wa US, DOW, unagwa mfundo zina za 1,175, dontho lalikulu kwambiri m'mbiri yake. Izi zidatsata kutsika kwakukulu kwa mfundo 665 zam'mbuyomu Friday. Kutsika kwathunthu kwa masiku awiri ndi 7.5%. Misika ina yayikulu yaku US, Nasdaq ndi S&P 500 idalembetsanso kuchepa kwakukulu kwamaperesenti ofanana. Misika ku Japan ndi ku Europe idatsata zomwezo kumapeto kwa sabata poyankha Lachisanu Kutsika kwa US; ndipo akuyembekezeka kugwa mofanana ndi ku US akamatsegula Lachiwiri, February 6. Kodi chikuchitika ndi chiyani? Koma chofunika kwambiri n’chakuti, n’chiyani chidzachitike m’masiku oŵerengeka otsatirawa ndiponso m’milungu ikubwerayi?
Atolankhani abizinesi ndi atolankhani adatsitsa akatswiri onse lero. 'Kuzungulira' ndi uthenga wake unali wakuti “musachite mantha” anthu. Izi ziyenera kuyembekezera, iwo amati, chifukwa cha kuwira kwa mtengo wa 2017, makamaka kuyambira November watha 2017, pambuyo pake kuwirako kunakula mofulumira. M'mwezi wa Januware wokha, DOW idakwera pafupifupi 7%. Zimenezo zimaonedwa ngati ‘phindu la chaka chabwino’ mu nthaŵi wamba. Komabe akatswiri azachuma ambiri akuti sikunakhale kobvuta, pomwe sapereka tanthauzo la zomwe kuwira kwenikweni - chifukwa sadziwa. Koma ndithudi kuthamanga kwa DOW kuchokera kuzungulira 16,000 kutsika mu 2016 mpaka kupitirira 26,000 pazaka zopitirira chaka kumapanga ngati kuwira.
Koma atolankhani omwe amalankhula akuyenda kutsogolo kwa makamera lero akuimba nyimbo yomweyi, "musachite mantha". Imabwera m'makiyi osiyanasiyana: "Ndikokokera kolandirika", "kugulitsa bwino", "mwayi wogula pa dipu" ndi zamkhutu zina zotere. Koma atafunsidwa chifukwa chake tsopano kugwa, alibe chowonjezera.
Chomwe chikuyimira, komabe, ndi akatswiri omwe amagulitsa ndalama m'mabungwe adaganiza 'kutenga ndalama zawo ndikuyendetsa', kusiya osunga ndalama ang'onoang'ono kuti awonongeke. Ndipo enanso akubwera. Akatswiriwa amazindikira kuti banki yayikulu, Fed, ikweza chiwongola dzanja 3-4 chaka chino. Izi zayamba kale kutumiza misika yama bond kukhala tailpin. Ndipo tsopano masheya akutsatira. Misika yamasheya yakwera kwambiri pazifukwa zingapo:
Chimodzi ndi jekeseni wamkulu wazaka 9 wa ndalama zaulere ndi Fed ndi mabanki ena apakati. Zoposa zofunikira kuyika ndalama pakupanga zenizeni, motero zimayenda m'misika yazachuma ku US komanso padziko lonse lapansi. Phindu lamakampani kuyambira 2010 lawonjezeka pafupifupi katatu, ndipo misonkho yopeza ndalama zambiri yatsika pang'onopang'ono ndi mabiliyoni ambiri a madola kuyambira 2010. Mabungwe akhala akusunga ndalama zokhazikika kwa eni ake omwe amagawana nawo ndi zaka 7 za kugula masheya ndi kubweza kwa magawo - pafupifupi madola thililiyoni pachaka kwa zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri! Phindu, zopindula, zogula, zochepetsera msonkho wa phindu lalikulu zinapangitsa kuti ma thililiyoni alowe m'misika yazachuma. Onjezani ku mbiriyo kuchuluka kwa ndalama zogulira masheya ndi osunga ndalama ang'onoang'ono (nthawi zonse chizindikiro chambiri) ndipo ndiye gwero la mbiri yamitengo yamisika. Ndipo, inde, tisaiwale za kudulidwa kwamisonkho kwa abizinesi a Trump opitilira $4 thililiyoni (osati $ 1.5) zomwe zikubwera pamwamba pa zonsezi - zomwe zithandizira phindu ndikuwonjezera phindu la 10% -31%, pamwamba. za phindu lomwe mabungwe aku US adapeza kale. Kuchulukitsa kwachuma kwachuma kukukwera m'misika ndi m'misika ina yazachuma. Ndicho chifukwa kuwira.
Koma bwanji za kuphulika? Bwanji tsopano—osati kale kapena pambuyo pake? Ndi chifukwa cha kusintha kwa misika yokha: kubwera kwa zomwe zimatchedwa 'momentum trading' ndi mabungwe akuluakulu monga quant hedge funds ndi ena; ndi kusintha kwa ndalama zomwe zimangokhala ndi zomwe zimatchedwa index funds; ndi zotumphukira monga ETFs kuyendetsa mitengo yamasheya komanso. Zonse zomwe zili pamwambazi zimabweretsa kukwera kwamitengo ndikumamwa ndalama zambiri chifukwa mitengo ikukwera….zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mitengo ikwere.
Mpaka pomwe banki yayikulu ikuwatsimikizira kuti 'punchbowl of free money' ikutha. Kenako akatswiriwo amatenga ndalama zawo ndikuthamanga, ndikusiya 'gulu' la osunga ndalama ang'onoang'ono atanyamula chikwama chopanda kanthu.
Chosangalatsa kwambiri ndichakuti chiwongola dzanja cha Fed sichinafike ngakhale 2% ndipo dongosololi lasweka. Mu 2007, mitengo ya Fed inayenera kupitirira 5% isanayambe kuwonongeka kwa ngongole. Koma mlembiyu ananeneratu kuti zikanakhala choncho, mwachitsanzo, kuti ndalama za Fed sizingakwere pamwamba pa 2-2.25% (ndi zaka 10 za Treasury bond pamwamba pa 3%) popanda kuyambitsa vuto lina la ngongole.
Koma kuwonongeka kwa katundu kwa February 2 ndi 5 si chiyambi kapena mapeto a zomwe zikubwera. Pakhoza kukhala kutsika kwina m'masiku akubwera koma kukhazikika. Padzakhala kuchira kapena mitundu. Koma kudzakhala 'kudumpha kwa mphaka wakufa', monga momwe zimakhalira nthawi zonse pazochitika zoterezi. Masabata angapo, kapena miyezi ingapo pambuyo pake, kudumpha kwenikweni kumayamba. Ndipo chimenecho chidzakhala chenichenicho.
Kukumbukira zomwe zidachitika mu 2008, kunali kugwa kwa banki yobwereketsa ya Countrywide Mortgage ndi Bear Stearns koyambirira kwa 2008 zomwe zinali zizindikiro zochenjeza. Kuchira kunatsatiridwa kwakanthawi, mpaka Fannie Mae kenako Lehman Brothers adakhazikitsa mphamvu zenizeni. Zomwe zikuchitika mwina sizingachokere ku US koma kunja. Misika yachuma ku Japan ndi Emerging Market ndiyowopsa kwambiri. Koma misika yazachuma ndi yapadziko lonse lapansi ndipo imaphatikizidwa mwamphamvu m'dongosolo lamasiku ano la capitalist. Kupatsirana kumapangidwa m'dongosolo padziko lonse lapansi. Ndipo osunga ndalama amasuntha ndalama zawo padziko lonse lapansi nthawi yomweyo. Pambuyo pake adzabwerera, kudikirira ndikuwona, ndipo misika idzakhazikika kwakanthawi. Kodi ndi mwayi wopeza zotayika za osunga ng'ombe ang'onoang'ono omwe ataya ma thililiyoni sabata ino? Ndi zomwe akatswiri oyika ndalama, osunga ndalama m'mabungwe akuluakulu, ma hedge funds, mabizinesi achinsinsi, ma capitalist akuluakulu azidzifunsa. Kapena kodi ndizovuta zenizeni zomwe zingagwetse misika osachepera 20% m'masiku ndi masabata akubwera? Adzadzifunsanso kuti Fed idzagwirabe ndondomeko yake kuti ipitirize kukweza mitengo? Zikatero, iwo asankha ng'ombe yayikulu yothamanga ya 2010-18 ndipo kuwira kwake kwatha ndipo apita kumbali yamtsogolo, osati kwakanthawi. Iwo atenga matrilioni awo a madola ndi kuthamanga. Ndipo akatero, kutsika kwenikweni kudzayamba….ndipo njira yopita ku kutsika kwachuma kwina.
Pakali pano, onani mphaka wakufayo akudumpha. Kukwera bwanji. Ndipo ikafika, kodi iyo idzagubuduka itafa kapena kudzuka ndi kuthamanganso?
Dr. Rasmus ndi wolemba buku la 2017, 'Mabanki Apakati Pamapeto a Zingwe Zawo: Ndondomeko Yazachuma ndi Kukhumudwa Kukubwera', Clarity Press, Ogasiti 2017, ndi Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy, Clarity Press, 2016
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