Gawo I la mndandanda wawonekera Pano mโmagazini ya March ya Z Magazine
In umboni pamaso pa US Congress House Financial Services Committee kumapeto kwa February 2008, wapampando wa US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) Ben Bernanke anavomereza kwa nthawi yoyamba zomwe ambiri a zachuma, mabanki, ndi ndondomeko za boma ayamba kuvomereza mwakachetechete: kuti mavuto a zachuma tsopano akufalikira mofulumira kupitirira gawo la subprime zogona zobwereketsa ku misika ina ya ngongole komanso kuti ndondomeko ya ndalama ndi Fed (ie, kuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja) zikuwoneka kuti sizingathe kuchita zambiri za mavuto azachuma kapena kuchepa kwachuma.
Monga Bernanke adavomereza ku Komiti pa February 27, 2008: "Mkhalidwe (waposachedwa) wachuma wakhala wochepa kwambiri," ndi kuchepa kwa msika wogulitsira nyumba, nyumba zosakhalamo "zikhoza kuchepa kwambiri m'madera akubwera," ogula. Kuwononga ndalama komanso bizinesi zidzachepa kwambiri, ndipo ngongole zambiri zitha "kulimba kwambiri." Komanso, "kuopsa kwa kawonedwe kameneka kumakhalabe kocheperako." Bernanke adavomereza kuti Fed, ngakhale kuti idachepetsa mobwerezabwereza chiwongoladzanja chanthawi yochepa kuyambira September 2007, idalephera kuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja cha nthawi yayitali. M'malo mwake, mitengo yanthawi yayitali-yomwe imakhudza kwambiri ndalama zogulira ogula ndi bizinesi ndipo motero kutsika kwachuma-yayamba kukwera "padziko lonse lapansi."
Chotsatira ndi kufotokozera momwe mavuto azachuma akufalikira mofulumira ku US, kuchokera ku subprime mortgage kupita ku misika ina ya ngongole, ndi momwe kupatsirana kumayambira kulowa mu chuma chenicheni (chosakhala chandalama), kuchititsa kuya. kutsika kwachuma komwe kukubwera ku US
The subprime mortgage crisis yomwe inayambika poyera mu July-August 2007 sichinapangitse mavuto a zachuma, koma chinali chimodzi mwa zizindikiro zingapo (ndipo zikukula) za kusakhazikika kwachuma kozama kwambiri. Kuyerekeza kwa ngongole zanyumba za subprime - zolimbikitsidwa ndi kusintha kwatsopano kwachitetezo ndi zotuluka m'zachuma, kuchotsedwa kwachuma kuyambira kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990, mphamvu zatsopano zaukadaulo, komanso katangale ndi katangale pamitundu ingapo-zinapanga mtengo wamtengo wapatali wanyumba wapakati pa 2003. -2006. Kubwereketsa ngongole kunakwera madola 4 triliyoni pakati pa 2003-6 ndi $ 2 triliyoni mwa zomwe zinaperekedwa mu subprime mortgages. Izi ndi pafupifupi $1 thililiyoni pachaka kwa zaka 4 zotsatizana. Masiku ano, msika wa subprime mortgage wasanduka nthunzi, ndipo msika wambiri womwe si wa subprime umabwera mofulumira.
Ndi kutuluka kwa msika wa subprime kunagwa mitengo ndi mtengo wa subprime mortgage securities (bond). Chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa malingaliro ($ 2 triliyoni) m'nyumba zanyumba za subprime, kuchuluka kwa kutayika kwa mabanki ndi mabungwe azachuma kunalinso kwakukulu. Malinga ndi mabungwe owerengera ndalama a Moody's ndi Standard & Poor's, pofika kuchiyambi kwa 2008 zotayika zidakwana zosachepera $400 biliyoni. Mabanki ena akunja amayerekeza kutayika komwe kungathe kuchokera ku subprimes ku US pa $ 600 biliyoni. Mabanki ndi mabungwe azachuma mpaka pano angochotsa $120 biliyoni yokha. Izi zimasiya $ 280- $ 480 biliyoni kuti zipite.
Chikhalidwe chachikulu cha zotayika mwamsanga chinayambitsa kugwa kwa misika ina ya ngongole yogwirizana kwambiri ndi msika wa subprime. Ma subprimes nthawi zambiri amamangidwa ndi zitetezo zina asanagulitsidwe ngati mabanki opangidwanso ndi ndalama za hedge kwa osunga ndalama, ndi pepala lazamalonda lotchedwa asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). Pamene ma subprimes adagwa ndi $600 biliyoni mu 2007, msika wa ABCP unatsika ndi pafupifupi $500 biliyoni pamodzi ndi izo mkati mwa miyezi yochepa. Kupatsirana kuchokera kumsika wa subprime kudakhudzanso msika wobwereketsa nyumba womwe si wa subprime (wotchedwa Alt-A mortgages). Momwemonso, msika wa ABCP udakhudza msika wamapepala osagwirizana ndi katundu. M'malo mwake, msika wanyumba zamalonda udatsika ndi madola mabiliyoni mazana angapo kumapeto kwa 2007, ndikuyerekeza kuti mwina kutsekedwa kudzachitika pakati pa 2008.
Ngongole zochulukirachulukira m'misika 5 yokhayi yolumikizana zidaposa $1.6 thililiyoni, zomwe zidachitika m'miyezi yosakwana 6, ndikuwonongeka kogwirizana ndi banki ndikulemba zomwe zikuyerekeza pafupifupi $600-$800 biliyoni.
Tkumanga (nyumba-zamalonda) ndi kutsika kwamisika yamapepala okhudzana kwambiri ndi malonda kunayamba kuchulukirachulukira kumisika yamabizinesi, makamaka msika womwe umadziwika kuti wokolola kwambiri wamakampani omwe adachita mgwirizano ndi 90 peresenti pofika Januware 2008 January 2007, kutsika ndi oposa $900 biliyoni. Monga msika wa ABCP, msika wa junk bond ndi komwe mabungwe osakhazikika azachuma amapita kukapeza ndalama popereka ndi kugulitsa ma bond awo osatetezedwa. Ndi ABCP ndi misika yandalama ya bond yakugwa, mabungwe omwe adadalira kale amanenedweratu kuti sangasinthe manambala ojambulidwa. Mitengo yosasinthika ikuyembekezeka kukwera kuchokera pa 18 peresenti kufika kupitirira khumi pa zana, malinga ndi a Moody's ndi Standard & Poor's. Izi zikutanthauza kutayika kwina kwakukulu kwa mabanki pamwamba pa subprime ndi kutayika kwa nyumba zamalonda zomwe zikuchitika kale. Zikutanthauzanso kuti mabizinesi akamalephera, ambiri amasowa ndalama ndikusiya mabizinesi, zotsatira zake zikhala zakuti anthu ambiri achotsedwa ntchito m'miyezi XNUMX ikubwerayi.
Kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja chamakampani ndi kutayika kwa banki komwe kumayembekezeredwa kumapangitsa kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja chamakampani omwe ali okhazikika. Kuchokera kumsika wamabizinesi osafunikira, kutsika kwa ngongole kwafalikira kumisika yodziwika bwino yamabizinesi, monga ngongole zamabanki zamabanki ndi misika yanthawi yochepa yamapepala. Pamodzi, awiriwa akuyimira misika yangongole yomwe mabungwe ambiri apakati ndi ang'onoang'ono amadalira kwambiri kuti azipereka ndalama zoyendetsera bizinesi. Misika iwiriyi inali ndi ndalama zokwana madola 3.3 thililiyoni pa ngongole zomwe zinaperekedwa ku bizinesi mu August 2007. Pofika kumayambiriro kwa 2008 ndalamazo zidatsika ndi zoposa $300 biliyoni.
Msika wina wangongole womwe udayamba kuwonekera koyambirira kwa 2008 unali msika wa leveraged buyout (LBO). Uwu unali malo ongopeka kwambiri omwe makampani amakonza ngongole ndi ndalama zina kudzera m'mabanki osungira ndalama kuti agule makampani ena kapena kukhala mwachinsinsi pofuna kupewa kuyang'anira boma pazantchito zongopeka ndi zina zambiri zabizinesi. Pofika kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2008 ndalama zokwana madola 200 biliyoni za ngongole zogulira zogulira ndalama zinasiyidwa popanda ogula omwe ali ndi chidwi. Izi zikutanthawuza kuti mabanki ndi osunga ndalama oyambirira amayenera kutenga zotayikazo.
Koma nkhani yayikulu kwambiri kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2008 inali kukula kwamakampani opanga inshuwaransi, monga MBIA, Ambac, ndi ena (otchedwa ma monolines) omwe akukumana ndi kutsika komanso mwina kudzisintha okha. Makampaniwa adapereka inshuwaransi yama bondi ndi ngongole zamakampani ena, ndikulonjeza kuti azilipira osunga ndalama pazowonongeka zamakampani ndi zina zikachitika. Koma ndi nkhokwe zophatikizana za $20- $30 biliyoni zokha zomwe zilipo, ma inshuwaransi khumi ndi awiri omwe ali ndi ndalama zochepa kwambiri. Ngongole zawo zophatikizidwira (ie, malonjezano a inshuwaransi) amaposa $1.9 thililiyoni. Kuphatikiza apo, nawonso amalingalira m'ma subprimes komanso ndalama zina zochokera ku $ 572 biliyoni. Zakhala zomveka bwino kwa osunga ndalama ndi misika kuti ma monolines osungidwa anali osakwanira. Mabungwe owunikira adanyalanyaza mkhalidwe wawo munthawi yongopeka. Koma a Moody's ndi S&P tsopano akuwopseza kutsitsa ma inshuwaransi. Izi zikachitika, mabungwe ndi mabanki osawerengeka omwe adagula inshuwaransi yawo akhoza kukumananso ndi kutsika kwakukulu, zomwe zimabweretsa kutayika kwina ndi kulephera.
Kusakhazikika, komanso kutayika kwakukulu kwa ma monoline kudapangitsa wandalama wapadziko lonse a George Soros posachedwapa kuti afotokoze kuti, "Pali nkhawa yayikulu yokhudzana ndi ma monoline ... palinso vuto lomwe lingakhalepo chifukwa chandalama zamsika zomwe zitha kukhala ndi katundu wokayikitsa." Nkhawa za Soros zidafanananso ndi CEO wa JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, yemwe adawonjezera kuti, "Ngati imodzi mwa mabungwewa (ma inshuwaransi) sakwanitsa, zotsatira zachiwiri zitha kukhala zoyipa." Zotsatira zachiwirizi zitha kukhala kutsika komanso kusakhazikika kwa mabiliyoni mazana ambiri m'mabizinesi - pamwamba pa zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa kale kuchulukitsa ka 10 pakulephera kwamakampani mu 2008.
Akatswiri ena amalosera kuti kutha kwa bankirapuse kapena kutsika kwakukulu kwa ma inshuwaransi amodzi kapena angapo kutha kutsika mosavuta ku msika wandalama wa $ 3.3 thililiyoni kapena msika wa $ 2.5 triliyoni wa ma municipalities, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mabanki azigwira ntchito m'mabanki omwe angakhale osiyana kwambiri ndi omwe amasungitsa ndalama. ' banki ikuyenda m'ma 1930 ndi m'mbuyomu. Zizindikilo zoyambilira za izi zinayamba kuonekera mu February 2008, pamene magawo akuluakulu a msika wa muni bond anayamba kuuma. Ndi pafupifupi theka la ma bond a municipalities omwe ali ndi inshuwaransi ndi ma inshuwaransi, chitetezo cha ma muni bond chinayamba kufunsidwa. Magawo awiri ofunikira amsika wa muni adachita mgwirizano kwambiri - mwachitsanzo, kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi kuchuluka kwa ma bond a municipalities, omwe amapereka ndalama zokwana $330 biliyoni ndi $500 biliyoni motsatana. Zovuta kwambiri pazandalama za boma ndi maboma, kuchepa kwa malonda m'misika ya muni kudawopseza kukwera kwamitengo komanso mavuto azandalama kumaboma am'deralo. Maboma ambiri aboma ndi maboma tsopano akukumana ndi kubwereketsa kochulukira panthawi yomwe ikuchulukirachulukira komanso kutsika kwamisonkho.
Njira ina ya inshuwaransi idayambanso kukakamizidwa pofika kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2008. Uwu unali msika wotengera zinthu zomwe zimatengera ngongole. Pafupifupi kulibeko chaka cha 2002 chisanafike, kusinthana kwa ngongole zomwe zatsala pang'ono kutha tsopano zikuposa $45 thililiyoni, zazikulu kuposa zonse zomwe boma la US likuchita ndi misika yanyumba pamodzi. Zotetezedwa zambiri pamsikawu zimakhala mumsika wamabanki, womwe udachokera mu nthawi ya 2001, yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ndi mabanki kuti ayimitse katundu wowopsa "kuchotsa ndalama" komanso zobisika kwa osunga ndalama ndi mabungwe oyang'anira boma (makonzedwe ofanana ndi kuti pa ENRON Corp. yomwe tsopano yatha, yomwe oyang'anira akuluakulu a kampaniyo adatsutsidwa ndikutsekeredwa m'ndende). Monga ma monolines, zotengera zosinthika zangongole zidapangidwa kuti zitsimikizire motsutsana ndi zolakwika. Koma ngati kusakhulupirika kwa ma bond kumafika pamlingo wabwinobwino wa 1.25 peresenti, a Bill Gross, woyang'anira wamkulu wa thumba lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, Pimco, adanena poyera kuti $500 biliyoni pamakontrakitala otengera ngongole angawononge ndalama zosachepera $250 biliyoni.
Mwina mbendera yofiira yoyambirira yachiyambi cha kuphwanyidwa koteroko kwa msika wa $ 45 thililiyoni wotengera ngongole kunali kutayika kwakukulu komwe kunalengezedwa mu Januwale ndi banki yayikulu yaku France, Societe General, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti vuto silinali longokhala ndi ma subprimes ndi katundu. pepala lochirikizidwa, koma linali lofala kwambiri, monga mutu wa Pimco Bill Gross adaneneratu.
Zizindikiro zamavuto akulu m'makampani a inshuwaransi zidawonekeranso koyambirira kwa 2008, pomwe AIG Inc., kampani yayikulu ya inshuwaransi yokhala ndi katundu, idalengeza kutayika kwambiri kwa $ 11.5 biliyoni chifukwa chakugulitsa kosinthana ndi ngongole. Chithunzi chakumapeto kwa February 2008 chinali chimodzi mwazomwe zatsika kwambiri za ngongole, mwa zina zomwe zidapangitsa kuti zolemba ziwonongeke komanso zotayika.
Kutayika ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa ngongole sikumaphatikizapo kutayika kowonjezereka ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa ngongole ya ogula-makamaka madera a ngongole zamagalimoto, ngongole za kirediti kadi, ndi ngongole za ophunzira. Umboni womwe ukuwoneka tsopano ukusonyeza kuti kutayika kwakukulu kukuyembekezeredwanso m'misika iyi. Makampani akuluakulu a kirediti kadi monga American Express ndi ena alengeza za kutayika kwa mbiri ndikuyika pambali poyembekezera zolakwika za ogula. Mndandanda womwe ukukula wamayunivesite aboma alengeza kuti atseka mapulogalamu a ngongole za ophunzira chifukwa chakukwera kwambiri kwamitengo yobwereketsa. General Electric Corp. yalengeza cholinga chake chosiyiratu misika ya ogula. Chifukwa chake, vuto la ngongole zanyumba, banki, ndi ngongole zamakampani zikuwoneka koyambirira kwa 2008 kuti zikuwononga misika ya ogula. Monga ngongole yamakampani yochulukirapo, ngongole zonse zapanyumba kuyambira 2003-07 zidakwera pafupifupi $7 thililiyoni.
Hkodi kutayika kwachuma kumeneku kukupangitsa kuti chuma cha US chikhale chozama? Yankho lalifupi ndiloti kutayika kwachuma kumakhala ndi zotsatira ziwiri zaposachedwa. Choyamba, kutayika kwa ndalama za mabungwe azachuma kumatanthauza kuti zotayika ziyenera kubwezeredwa powonjezera ndalama zenizeni. Ngati sichoncho, mabungwewo akhoza kulephera. Atha kubwereka kumabanki ena, ku Federal Reserve, kapena, monga zakhala zikuchitika posachedwapa, kuchokera ku ndalama zomwe zimatchedwa ndalama zodziyimira pawokha, zomwe ndi ndalama zaboma zakunja. Njira yoyamba ndivuto pamene mabanki akukayikitsa za chuma cha wina ndi mzake. Kubwereketsa kwa Interbank kukuuma, monga momwe zinakhalira kumapeto kwa 2007. Kubwereka ku Federal Reserve ndi njira yachiwiri ndipo yakhala ikuchitika kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2007 pansi pa mawu abwino kwambiri a Fed. Koma ngongole za Fed pakadali pano zakhala zosakwanira kubweza kuchuluka kwa mabanki omwe akuyembekezeredwa. Momwemonso, ndalama zodziyimira pawokha zomwe zili ku Dubai, Singapore, ndi kwina zapereka ndalama kumabanki pogula umwini wa Merrill Lynch, Citicorp, ndi ena. Koma ndalamazo zimayesedwa mu mabiliyoni otsika, palibe pafupi ndi mazana mabiliyoni otayika omwe atayika mpaka pano ndikuyembekezeredwa.
Chifukwa cha kutayika kwakukulu komwe kukuyembekezeka komanso kusakwanira kwa ndalama zomwe zilipo, mabanki ayamba kubwereketsa ndalama zomwe ali nazo. Chifukwa chake amakweza chiwongola dzanja kuti alembe milingo. Chiwongola dzanja ichi si chiwongola dzanja chanthawi yayitali cha 3 mpaka 4 peresenti pomwe Fed imabwereketsa ndalama kumabanki. Mabanki omwe amaperekedwa kwa makasitomala ndi chiwongola dzanja chanthawi yayitali - makamaka ma bondi ndi ngongole zanthawi yayitali - zobwereketsa 7 peresenti, 10 peresenti, kapena kupitilira apo. Kukwera kwamitengo yanthawi yayitali kumakweza mtengo wobwereketsa ndi makasitomala omwe si akubanki komanso kwa ogula ogula zinthu zolimba monga magalimoto, mipando, nyumba, ndi zina.
Pakugwa kwachuma komwe kukukulirakulira, mabanki safuna kubwereketsa ndipo mabungwe nawonso safuna kubwereka. Makampani omwe ali pachiwopsezo ndi omwe ali okonzeka kubwereketsa pamitengo yokwera kwambiri, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti nthawi zambiri atha kupitilira - motero zolosera za Moody's ndi S&P zakuwonjezeka kwa 10 kwamitengo yamakampani m'miyezi 18 ikubwerayi. Kuchepa kwandalama komanso kuwononga ndalama zamabizinesi kumapangitsa kuti anthu asamagwire ntchito, osalephera kubweza galimoto, ma kirediti kadi, ndi ngongole za ophunzira, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kutsika kwachuma.
Zomwe zili pamwambazi zimatengera miyeso yamalingaliro panthawi ina, zomwe zimakulitsa kuchepa kwachuma. Mantha ndi kusatsimikizika pa zomwe sizinatchulidwebe, kutayika kwina kwa banki kumabweretsa kusowa chidaliro pamabanki komanso kusafunanso kubwereketsa kapena kubwereketsa. Chinthu china chamaganizo ndi pamene mantha a kutayika pamsika wa subprime mortgage kumabweretsa nkhawa za kutayika komanso kubwereketsa nyumba zopanda subprime, misika yamalonda, ndi misika yogwirizana kwambiri monga mapepala amalonda omwe amathandizidwa ndi katundu. Mitengo yobwereka imakwera ndipo ochita malonda amasiya kubwereka osati m'misika ya subprime ndi yogwirizana, koma misika ina yobwereketsa ngongole. Mitengo ya katundu ndiye mphuno ikudutsa pa bolodi. Kutsika kwamitengo yangongole yamtunduwu, ikafalikira kuchokera kumisika yakutali kupita kumisika yangongole, kumayenderana kwambiri ndi kutsika kwachuma osati kutsika kwachuma.
Chitsanzo china: nkhawa yoti ma inshuwaransi (monolines) ndi kusinthana kwa ngongole sikungathe kubweza zolakwika zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa kumapangitsa osunga ndalama kuti achoke m'misika yotetezeka yangongole monga ma muni bond, pafupifupi theka la omwe ali ndi inshuwaransi. Mโmalo mwake, maboma a boma ndi angโonoangโono amachepetsa kuwononga ndalama, kutsitsa antchito, kuchepetsa phindu kwa ena, kukweza misonkho ya katundu ndi zolipiritsa zosiyanasiyana, ndi zina zoteroโzonsezi zimene zimachititsa kuti pakhale mavuto a zachuma.
Chitsanzo chachitatu: kukwera kwachuma kwa mabungwe azachuma kumatanthauza kukwera kwa mitengo komanso kukhwimitsa mawu a ngongole kwa ogula komanso obwereketsa mabizinesi. Mitengo ya kirediti kadi imakwera, mawu amavuta, mabanki amayamba kulipiritsa makasitomala ogula ndalama zambiri, mitengo ya ngongole zamagalimoto imakwera, ngongole za ophunzira zimakhala zovuta kupeza ndi mitengo yokwera, maboma ndi maboma amayenera kuwononga ndalama zambiri kubwereka ndikubweza ndalama kwa nzika. m'malipiro apamwamba a m'deralo, misonkho ya katundu, ndi kuwononga ndalama zochepa (zimene zimachititsa kuti anthu azichepa kapena kuchotsedwa ntchito). Kuchulukirachulukira, ogula amalephera kubwereketsa magalimoto, ophunzira, ndi ngongole za kirediti kadi.
Czosemphana ndi Monetary and Fiscal Policy
BMfundo zandalama za Fed komanso ndalama zaposachedwa za $ 168 biliyoni zodula msonkho za DRM zikuwonetsa kuti sizokwanira kuthana ndi mavuto azachuma komanso kugwa kwachuma. Kutsika kwachangu (ie, kugwa kwamitengo) tsopano kukuchitika m'misika yanyumba ndi malonda ndipo posachedwapa kungafalikire kumisika ina yosamanga pamene kusakhulupirika kwamakampani kumakwera komanso kutayika kwa banki kwina kumanenedwa. Kutsika kwa ngongole m'misika yanyumba ndi katundu ndi zotsatira zosapeลตeka za kutsika kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali (nyumba ndi katundu) m'mbuyomo, zomwe zinapangidwa ndi kulingalira kwakukulu. Kulingalira mopambanitsa kumadzetsa kukwera kwa mitengo modabwitsa ndipo potsirizira pake kumangokhala kutsika kodabwitsa. Koma deflation ndiye ngozi yayikulu.
Pamene kuchepa kwa ngongole kumafalikira kuchokera ku nyumba kupita kumadera ena azachuma, vuto lenileni limayamba. Makampani omwe akukumana ndi kukwera mtengo komanso kusapezeka kwa ndalama zothandizira bizinesi yatsiku ndi tsiku, akuyamba kukweza ndalama mwadzidzidzi pogulitsa zinthu zawo pansi pamitengo yamisika. Izi zimakweza ndalama zomwe zimafunikira kuti ugwire ntchito kapena kukhalabe mubizinesi, koma zimabweretsa kutsika kwamitengo - mwachitsanzo, kutsika mtengo - komwe kumachulukitsa kutayika komanso kufunikira kochepetsanso mitengo. Izi ndi zomwe zimasiyanitsa makamaka kuvutika maganizo ndi kuchepa kwachuma. Kuyesetsa kukweza ndalama mwa kuchepetsa mitengo, kuwonjezera apo, nthawi zambiri kumatsagana ndi kuchepetsa ndalama pochotsa anthu ambiri. Chifukwa chake kukwera kwa ulova kumatsagana ndi deflation kufananiza. Chuma cha US chikuyandikira pachimake, kulowera komweko.
Kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja choposa 3 peresenti pofika Marichi 2008 kwathandiza kuti mabanki achepetse phindu, koma sikunapambane kuthetsa vuto langongole komanso kugwa kwachuma. Vutoli likupitilirabe kuchitapo kanthu pa Fed pomwe chiwongola dzanja chanthawi yayitali chakwera ndipo motero chuma chatsika kwambiri. Fed mwina idathandiziranso kutsika kwachuma pakutsika kwaposachedwa kwa chiwongola dzanja kwakanthawi kochepa. Mwachitsanzo, mitengo yotsika yachititsa kuti dola ya ku United States ichepe kwambiri komanso kusintha kuchoka pa dola kupita ku Yuro ndi ndalama zina monga njira yokondeka pazamalonda ndi zachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Mavuto azachuma akusintha mwachangu kukhala vuto la ndalama zofananira - zomwe zilinso chizindikiro cha kukhumudwa poyerekeza ndi kuchepa kwachuma.
Kugwa kwa dola kukuchititsanso kuti mitengo iyambe kukwera, monga kukwera mitengo kwa zinthu monga chakudya, zakudya, zopangira, zitsulo, ndi mafuta. Pamene dola ikutsika, OPEC ndi opanga mafuta ku Middle East akhala akukweza mitengo yawo kuti athetse kugwa kwa ndalama zomwe amagulitsa mu madola. Mitengo yamafuta yakwera $100 mbiya imodzi. Kukwera kwamitengo yazinthu kumapangitsa kuti ogula aku US achepetse kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama, zomwe zimachepetsa kugulitsa zinthu, ndikuchepetsa kuchepa kwachuma. Mafuta ndi zinthu zina zongoyerekeza zitha kukwezanso mitengo yamafuta ndi chakudya isanafike kwa ogula aku US, koma zomwe Fed imayamba ndikudyetsa zonsezo. Chifukwa chake, zoyesayesa za Fed zoletsa kugwa kwachuma zimathandizira kwambiri kugwa kwachuma. Panthawi ina, Fed idzasiya kutsitsa chiwongoladzanja chifukwa cha zotsatira zake. Izi zikachitika, zotsatira zina zamaganizo zidzachitika ndipo zotsatira zake zidzakhala zazikulu. Pochita izi, a Fed adzavomereza kuti sangathe kuchita chilichonse chokhudza vutoli.
Kumbali yazachuma, phukusi laposachedwa la $ 168 biliyoni la DRM (ndi Bush) kuti lilimbikitse chuma lidzakhalanso losathandiza. Choyamba, gawo labwino la phukusi lodula misonkho ndi kuchepetsa msonkho wabizinesi komwe sikudzakhala ndi vuto pakugwa kwachuma. Munthawi yomwe kutsika kwachuma kukuchulukirachulukira, kutsika kwamisonkho kwabizinesi sikuyambitsa kubweza ndalama. Bizinesi ikhoza kutenga ndalama zochepetsera msonkho, koma kuchedwetsa zisankho zoyika ndalama pomwe mukuchepetsa ntchito. Gawo labwino la kuchepa kwa misonkho yamabizinesi lidzasinthidwanso kuti likulitsidwe m'mphepete mwa nyanja ndi mabungwe omwe sadzakhala ndi vuto lililonse pazachuma ku US, zomwe zakhala zikuchitika kwa zaka zingapo tsopano. Pomaliza, zomwe mabizinesi amawononga ndalama zomwe zimachitika chifukwa chakuchepetsa misonkho zidzakhala zochulukirapo kuposa kuchotsedwa kwamakampani ambiri omwe akubwera kumapeto kwa chaka chino.
Pang'ono pang'ono pa kubwezeredwa kwa msonkho wa ogula kudzamasulira ku ndalama zatsopano. Ogula ambiri, omwe tsopano ali ndi ngongole zambiri, adzagwiritsa ntchito kubweza ngongole kuti alipire ngongole. Mwina gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu okha la $ 168 biliyoni ndizomwe zidzawononge ogula atsopano. Ndipo kuwononga ndalama kwa ogula kudzachepetsedwa kwambiri ndi kuchepetsedwa kwa ndalama ndi chindapusa chokwera ndi maboma ndi maboma, popeza ndalama zamisonkho zimatsika chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma pomwe ndalama zobwereketsa zikukwera kwambiri. Chisankho cha Novembala 2008 chisanachitike zidzaonekeratu kuti ndalama zaposachedwa za Congress-Bush zinali chitsanzo chochepa kwambiri.
Ngati mavuto ndi kugwa kwachuma zikapitilirabe, njira zatsopano zidzafunika. Monga nthawi ya Kukhumudwa kwa zaka za m'ma 1930, zothetsera zatsopano zingafunike kukonzanso kwakukulu kwa Federal Reserve System, kubwereranso kwa chinachake monga bungwe la boma la Reconstruction Finance Corp. la nthawi imeneyo, ndi kukonzanso kofunikira kwa gawo lazachuma ku US. , ndi kutembenuzidwa kwa malamulo kuyambira mโma 1980 kumene kwachititsa kugaลตikananso kwakukulu kwa ndalama zimene zadzetsa kuchulukitsitsa koyerekeza kwa zaka makumi angapo zapitaziโkungotchulapo zochepa chabe.
Nkhani 2008-09
Fkusowa kwadongosolo komanso nthawi zina kusintha kwakukulu kwachuma chandale ku US kudzakhala kofunikira kuthana ndi mavuto azachuma. Vutoli lingaphatikizepo zina mwa izi:
- Kuwonongeka kwamakampani ndi kuchotsedwa kwakukulu komwe kumachitika pambuyo pake mu 2008 mpaka 2009.
- Kupitiliza kuwululidwa za kuwonongeka kwina ndi mabanki ndi mabungwe azachuma
- Kugwa kwa banki imodzi kapena zingapo zazikulu ku US, zomwe zikuyambitsa kuwongolera kwakukulu kwa msika wa 20-30 peresenti.
- Kutsika kwinanso kwa 10-20 peresenti ya dola m'misika yamayiko akunja
- Kuchulukirachulukira kwamitengo yamafuta ndi zinthu ngati oyerekeza akunyanja akupitilizabe kupezerapo mwayi pamavuto aku US akuipiraipira pakugwa kwachuma.
- Kutsika kufalikira kuchokera ku nyumba ndi ndalama zina ku US kupita ku katundu ndi ntchito. Lembani zoperewera za bajeti za US (zogwirizana) za $ 700 biliyoni kuphatikiza
- Kuzindikira kwakukulu kuti ndondomeko zamakhalidwe azachuma ndi zachuma zikulephera kuthana ndi mavuto azachuma komanso kugwa kwachuma.
Aliyense amene ali purezidenti mu 2009 adzayenera kuthana ndi zomwe zikukulirakulira kuti chuma chonse chapadziko lonse lapansi chikutsika, limodzi ndi US, ndikugwa molumikizana.
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Jack Rasmus ndi mlembi wa Nkhondo Kunyumba: Zokhumudwitsa Zamakampani Kuchokera kwa Ronald Reagan kupita ku George W. Bush (2006) ndi The Trillion Dollar Income Shift: Essays on Income Inequality in America (zikubwera).