Tyake ndi gawo lachiwiri la mndandanda wa Jack Rasmus wokhudza mbiri yakale komanso momwe mavuto azachuma akuchitikira. The Nkhani yoyamba adawonekera mu Z Magazine Nkhani ya February.
Tchaka chake chomwe chikubwera chikhoza kukumbukiridwa ngati chaka chomwe ndale zinayamba kukumana ndi mavuto azachuma omwe akupitirirabe. Mu Januwale, mu zisankho za Senate ku Massachusetts, ovota ogwira ntchito ndi apakatikati adalembetsa motsimikiza kusaleza mtima kwawo ndi $ 2.3 thililiyoni pakubweza kwa mabanki, makampani a inshuwaransi, mabungwe akulu, ndi osunga ndalama olemera-omwe adayambiranso mwachangu kudzipatsa mabonasi olemba. Iwo anasonyeza kukwiya kwawo ndi mabanki amene akulandira ndalama zaulere kuboma pa chiwongola dzanja cha ziro peresentiโmonga mmene amagwiritsidwira ntchito mwamsanga kuyerekezera ndalama zakunja, masheya, ndi katundu wakunjaโpamene sangasinthidwe ngongole zawo zanyumba, satha kupeza ngongole za ophunzira pa chilichonse koma kukwera mtengo kwa msika, kapena akukanidwa kwambiri ngongole kubanki kuti mabizinesi awo ang'onoang'ono asagwe. Iwo analemba kunyansidwa kwawo ndi makampani a kirediti kadi mopambana kulepheretsa ngakhale amantha kuyesayesa kwa Congressional kuika kapu ya 34 peresenti pa zolipiritsa makadi ndi chindapusa. Iwo anasonyeza kusakhulupirira kwawo lonjezo la bili yosintha chisamaliro chaumoyo yomwe tsiku lililonse imasinthidwa kukhala bilu ya subsidy ya makampani a inshuwaransi yaumoyoโkupatsa makampani a inshuwalansi mamiliyoni a makasitomala atsopano pamtengo wa okhometsa msonkho pamene antchito okhala ndi inshuwaransi yaumoyo amalipira zonsezo. Iwo adawona kusakhutira kwawo ndi mavumbulutso oti makampani akuluakulu monga AIG ndi Goldman Sachs adabwezeredwa 100 peresenti ndi US Treasury chifukwa cha kubetcha ndi ngongole zawo zongopeka pomwe iwo, ogwira ntchito ndi apakatikati, akupitiliza kutaya nyumba zawo ndi mamiliyoni chaka chilichonse, kapena anakakamizika kuwonera pamene ndalama zawo zapakhomo zikugwera pansi pa ngongole zanyumba. Osachepera, adalemba ukali wawo ndi pafupifupi $ 500 biliyoni ya $ 787 biliyoni yolimbikitsira yomwe Congress idagwiritsa ntchito pochepetsa misonkho ndi zothandizira zomwe sizinatsikebe kuti apange ntchito.
A Republican sanapambane chisankho cha Massachusetts. Munthu m'modzi yemwe anali wochenjera kwambiri kuti atengere mkwiyo wa populist adasankha. Adathamanga kwambiri ngati populist kuposa waku Republican. Poyesa kuyika chidwi pazotsatira za zisankho za Massachusetts, malo ofalitsa nkhani aku Republican ngati Fox adakankhira mfundo yoti kutayika kwa Massachusetts chifukwa cha Democrats kumayimira kubweza kwa ovota odziyimira pawokha pakuthandizira malingaliro a demokalase pazaumoyo, zolimbikitsa zachuma, kuwongolera mabanki. , ndi zina zotero. Koma kafukufuku wochitidwa ndi AFL-CIO atangovota adawonetsa momveka bwino kuti ma Democrat akutaya chithandizo mwachangu, osati kwa odziyimira pawokha, koma kuchokera kwa ogwira ntchito ndi ovota mabungwe. Malinga ndi Purezidenti wa AFL-CIO, Richard Trumka, polankhula poyera kwa ogwira ntchito m'bungwe m'dziko lonselo chisankho cha Massachusetts chitangotha, "Pokhapokha ngati ma Democrat awonetsa kuti kukonza chuma ndiye chinthu chofunikira kwambiri ndikuyamba kupanga ntchito zambiri kwa anthu aku America omwe akugwira ntchito tsopano, tili pano. tiwona zotsatira zambiri mu Novembala ngati chisankho cha Massachusetts. " Trumka anawonjezera kuti "America yogwira ntchito ikufuna kusintha kwakukulu tsopano - osati amantha, pang'onopang'ono, mayankho ang'onoang'ono."
Odabwitsa 31 peresenti (pafupifupi 50 miliyoni) mwa antchito 150 miliyoni aku US adapeza kuti alibe ntchito nthawi ina mu 2008-2009. Achinyamata, ochepa, ndi ogwira ntchito kusukulu za sekondale anavutika ndi ulova wa 30 peresenti, 40 peresenti, ndi kupitirira apo. Osowa ntchito kwenikweni kumapeto kwa chaka adayandikira 23-25 โโmiliyoni. Kuonjezera chipongwe, osagwira ntchito amauzidwa mobwerezabwereza kuti asayembekezere kuti ntchito zomwe zatayika zibwererenso mpaka 2016 koyambirira - pambuyo pa 2020 ndi kuyerekezera kwina. Pakadali pano, omwe akufunafuna ntchito masiku ano pamlingo wapansi akudziwa kuti kusowa kwa ntchito sikuchepa, ngakhale boma likuwerengera. Kufikira pomwe mabizinesi adayamba kulemba ganyu kumapeto kwa chaka, amalemba ganyu mazana masauzande a antchito osakhalitsa komanso okhazikika omwe adzachotsedwanso pakuwonetsa pang'ono kutsika. Momwe kusowa kwa ntchito sikunapitirire kumapeto kwa chaka, ndichifukwa choti mazana masauzande ambiri adasiya kupeza ntchito ndikusiya ogwira ntchito ndipo dipatimenti yantchito yaku US idapitilizabe kulimbikira kupanga ziwerengero zabodza zamabizinesi atsopano ndikulemba ganyu mwadongosolo. kuti athetse kutayika kwa ntchito zenizeni. Kusowa ntchito kwenikweni kukukulirakulirabe. Sichiwerengero chovomerezeka cha 10 peresenti komanso chokhazikika, koma 18 peresenti ndikukwera.
Kutsogolo kwa nyumba, nyumba zinanso zokwana 2.4 miliyoni zinalandidwa chaka chathaโkuposa 6 miliyoni kuchokera pamene vuto la nyumba linayamba mu 2006. Anthu 2009 miliyoni mpaka XNUMX miliyoni pa ngongole zanyumba zokwana XNUMX miliyoni zomwe zatsala pangโono kutha akuyembekezeka kulandidwa mโnthawi yamavuto. . Pakati pa gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu ndi theka la ngongole zonse za ngongole zikuyembekezeka kukhala "pansi pa madzi" panthawi ina. Lonjezo la kukonzanso nyumba kumapeto kwa chilimwe chatha likuyambanso kuzimiririka, pamene kugulitsa nyumba zatsopano, kumanga nyumba zatsopano, ndi mitengo ya nyumba zinayamba kutsikanso m'miyezi yomaliza ya XNUMX.
Pamodzi ndi kukwera kwa ngongole za ogula, kukulirakulira kwa kusalingana kwa ndalama ndi chifukwa chachikulu cha kufooka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito. Ogula ambiri lerolino akadali ndi ngongole 130 peresenti ya ndalama zawo zenizeni zomwe amapeza - ndipo ndalama zenizenizi zikutsikabe. Mu 2009, kuchepa kwa malipiro ndi malipiro kunapitirira kwa anthu oposa 100 miliyoni ogwira ntchito ndi apakati ku America, kutsikanso 1.3 peresenti. Ogwira ntchito amapeza ndalama zochepa masiku ano kuposa momwe adachitira mu 2001.
Ntchito, kutsekereza, kutsika kwa ndalama, kusapezeka kwa ngongole - zonsezi zatanthauza kugwa kopitilira muyeso kwa kufunikira kwazakudya komwe kumaphatikizapo 71 peresenti yachuma. Kusintha kwachuma kwachuma sikungachitike popanda kusintha kwazakudya. Ndipo kusintha kwanthawi yayitali kuchedwa, m'pamenenso padzakhala kutsika kwachiwiri muzachuma kapena vuto lazachuma lachiwiri. Komanso, ngati pachitika vuto lachiwiri lazachuma, kutsika kwachuma kwamasiku ano kungasinthe n'kukhala kuvutika maganizo kwapadziko lonse.
Epic Recession Today: Type I (1907-1914) kapena Type II (1929-1931)?
Obama ndi alangizi ake sakumvetsetsa bwino lomwe vuto lomwe lilipo pano. Kutsika kwachuma kwamasiku ano si kutsika kwachuma. Ndizosiyana kwambiri ndi zina mwazinthu zisanu ndi zinayi zam'mbuyomu zomwe zidachitika ku US kuyambira 1945-2001. Kumbali ina, si yachilendo. Zakhala zikuchitika kale, kangapo kwenikweni, m'zaka za 19th ndi 20th, ku US ndi kwina kulikonse.
Ku US, kutsika kwachuma kwamtundu woyamba kunachitika mu 1907-1914, kutsatira kusokonekera kwakukulu kwa banki komanso mantha azachuma mu 1907. Kutsika kofanana kwa ngongole ndi chuma chenicheni kudatsata vutolo, zomwe zidapangitsa kukonzanso kwakukulu kwamabanki. ku US, ndikupanga Federal Reserve ndikukhazikitsa msonkho wokhazikika kwa nthawi yoyamba. Ndiko kuti, kusintha kwakukulu mu ndondomeko ya zachuma ndi zachuma kunakhazikitsidwa panthawiyo (zonse zomwe sizinachitike pakugwa kwachuma kwamakono).
Komabe, kusintha kofunikira kumeneku m'mabanki ndi misonkho kunathandiza kuti chuma chisagwe. Iwo sanachite bwino kubweretsa chiwongola dzanja chokhazikika. Zinthu sizinaipire, koma sizinali bwino kwa nthawi yochepa. Pambuyo pa 1907, chuma cha US chidayimilira kwa zaka zina zisanu ndi chimodzi, kuyambira 1908 mpaka 1914, osatha kubweretsanso nthawi yayitali koma kulepheretsa kugwa kwanthawi yayitali. Kutsatira kusokonekera kwachuma komanso kuchepa kwachuma koyamba, kuchira kwakanthawi kochepa kwa miyezi pafupifupi 24 kunachitika. Pambuyo pake, kutsika kwinanso kwa miyezi 21, kuchira kwachiลตiri kochepa kwa miyezi 15 ndi kutsika kwinanso kwa miyezi 24โpambuyo pake Nkhondo Yadziko I inaloลตereramo ndikupereka chisonkhezero chachikulu cha zachuma. Kubwerera kuwiri kwakanthawi kochepa, kofooka komanso kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kuwiri kunapangitsa kuti chuma chisasunthike kwanthawi yayitali. Zinali, mwa kuyankhula kwina, zaka khumi zotayika. Kuyimitsidwa kwanthawi yayitali komwe kudachitika kudathetsedwa kokha ndi kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe boma lidagwiritsa ntchito - mwachitsanzo, kulimbikitsa kwakukulu kwachuma - komwe kudapangitsa kuti dziko la US lilowe muzachuma mu Nkhondo Yadziko I pambuyo pa 1915.
Mosiyana ndi 1907-1914, kuchepa kwachuma kwa Type II kunachitika mu 1929-1931. A Type II ndi kugwa kwachuma komwe chuma chimalephera kukhazikika pakanthawi kochepa, koma chikupitilirabe kutsika pang'onopang'ono ndikusintha kukhala kukhumudwa kwenikweni. Mu mtundu Woyamba, kusokonekera kwachuma komanso kugwa kwa mabanki kumawunikiridwa ndikusungidwa, koma kufooka kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito kumapitilirabe, kulepheretsa kuchira. Mu mtundu wachiwiri wachiwiri, kusokonekera kwachuma komanso kugwiritsa ntchito zinthu zonse zikupitilirabe kuwonongeka, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti chuma chisokonezeke pang'onopang'ono komanso kuchepa kwambiri.
Miyezi 24 yoyambirira ya Kupsinjika Kwakukulu kwa zaka za m'ma 1930 inali nthawi yovuta kwambiri, kuyambira kumapeto kwa chilimwe cha 1929 mpaka m'chilimwe cha 1931. Chigwirizano cha anthu chinali chakuti chuma sichinali m'mavuto. Kuchotsedwa ntchito kunali kwakukulu, koma osati koopsa. Kupanga ndi kumanga zidatsika kwambiri, koma osati chuma chonse. Mabanki anali asanagwere mwaulere. Komabe, mosiyana ndi zomwe zinachitikira 1907-1914, vuto loyamba lazachuma (kuwonongeka kwa msika wa October 1929) ndi kuchepa kwa ngongole ndi kuchepa kwenikweni kwachuma komwe kunatsatira kunasandulika ku Great Depression pambuyo pa zaka zapakati pa 1931, m'malo mwa nthawi yotalikirapo. pambuyo pa 1907. Chuma chotsalacho chinagwirizana ndi kupanga ndi kumanga, ndipo chuma mwachisawawa chinalowa m'nyengo yowonjezereka kwambiri. Ulova unakula kwambiri pambuyo pa zaka zapakati pa 1931, ndipo dongosolo lakubanki lokhalo pomalizira pake linagwa mochititsa mantha.
Mkhalidwe wosiyana uwu wa 1929-1931 poyamba udali chifukwa chakulephera kukhazikitsa njira zamabanki pomwe idayamba kunyonyotsoka, mwachitsanzo, pomwe idakula pang'onopang'ono. Chuma chenicheni ndi kuwonongeka kwa mowa kunaphwanyidwa pamodzi m'chilimwe cha 1931. Ndondomeko ya zachuma inagwa kachiwiri pakati pa 1931, koma nthawi ino mabanki okha m'malo mwa msika wogulitsa. Chochitikacho chinakokera pansi chuma chenichenicho mu theka lachiwiri la 1931. Chimodzi mwa chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwachiwiri kwachuma mu 1931 chinali chisankho cha olamulira a Hoover kuti asamakhale "kulinganiza bajeti" komanso kuti Federal Reserve ikwere msanga chiwongoladzanja. pofuna kuteteza mtengo wa dola ya US m'misika yapadziko lonse (zokamba zomwe zanenedwa mu 2010). Chifukwa chake Federal Reserve mu 1931 idasankha kusiya kubweza chuma chanyumba kuti ateteze ndalama zamabanki, osunga ndalama olemera, ndi makampani aku US omwe akukulirakulira kunja. Ndi mantha oyamba akubanki mu 1931, ngongole idachita bwino kwambiri, mabizinesi adayamba kusakhulupirika ndikupindika, kusowa kwa ntchito kudachitika, kutsika kwamitengo ndi kudulidwa kwamalipiro kutsatiridwa, ndipo kusakhulupirika (ogula, bizinesi, ndi maboma) kudakwera mwachangu.
Izi zinabwerezedwanso mu 1932 ndi kuchiyambi kwa 1933. Pofika mโchilimwe cha 1933, ulova unali 25-30 peresenti, kupanga kutsika ndi theka, mabanki angโonoangโono oposa 15,000 analephera, msika wa masheya unatsika ndi 89 peresenti, ndipo Mabanki Akuluakulu anachepa. Kupsinjika maganizo kunali kochepa kwambiri. The Great Depression of the 1930s sichinali chophweka, kutsika pang'onopang'ono kwa chuma kuyambira 1929 mpaka 1941. Linapangidwa ndi magawo angapo ndi magawo angapo. Gawo lotsegulira linali vuto lalikulu lachuma, 1929-1931, lomwe linaloledwa kuipiraipira ndipo pamapeto pake linasintha kukhala ma contract angapo otsatira, kuyambira 1931 mpaka 1933. . Koma kukhazikika kumeneko sikunali kokwanira kuti pakhale chitukuko chokhazikika chachuma ndipo 1933-34 inali nthawi yachuma chenicheni, ngakhale nthawi yomwe mitengo yamtengo wapatali ndi ndalama zinayamba kubwereranso, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti anthu ayambe kuchira. Koma kuleza mtima si kuchira. M'malo mwake, kuyambira 1933-1934, panalibe zosachepera zisanu zobwezeretsa msika, ngakhale mawonekedwe ake sanakhalitse.
Zokonda zamabizinesi ndi mabanki zidatsutsa mwamphamvu pulogalamu yoyamba yobwezeretsa ya FDR mu 1933, kupatulapo mabanki a bailout ndi njira zokhazikika. FDR inaganiza mu 1934, patatha pafupifupi zaka ziwiri mu ofesi popanda kuchira, kusintha kwambiri ndondomeko ndi kutsutsa malonda mwachindunji ndi mwaukali. Inali panthawiyi mapulogalamu omwe si a banki, osachita bizinesi a FDR's New Deal anayamba kupanga. Koma mapulogalamu a Roosevelt a New Deal apakati pa zaka za m'ma 1930 adawonetsa kuti sangakwanitse kukonza chuma chokhazikika. Kuphatikiza apo, zokonda zabizinesi mu Congress, makhothi, ndi atolankhani adayambitsa zipolowe zandale kuti ayambe kuphwanya mfundo zazikuluzikulu za New Deal. Kwa iwo, Kupsinjika maganizo kunatha, ndi mitengo ya katundu ikukwera mofulumira ndipo phindu lamakampani likubwerera. Mโmalingaliro awo, panalibe chifukwa chopitirizira kuwononga ndalama pa ntchito, nyumba, ndi njira zina zopindulitsa antchito ndi mabizinesi angโonoangโono. Kulinganiza bajeti kunakhalanso ndondomeko ya ndondomeko. Chifukwa chake, pofika 1937, ndalama zolimbikitsira zidachepetsedwa ndipo misonkho idakwezedwa.
Kuchoka pakulimbikitsa zachuma kumatanthauza kuti chuma chabwereranso kuchisoni pofika kumapeto kwa 1937-1938. Pochita mantha ndi umboni wa zomwe adachita, Congress mu 1938 inabwezeretsa ndalama zina. Koma idabwereranso ku mfundo zandalama za Federal Reserve, zomwe zidakhalanso patsogolo kuposa ndalama. Ndondomeko yatsopanoyi sinathe kubweretsa kuchira kokhazikika ndipo pofika kumayambiriro kwa 1941 panalibe 15 peresenti ya ulova.
Kupsinjika Kwakukulu sikunathe mpaka kulowa kwa US mu Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yadziko Lonse, pomwe ndalama zambiri zaboma zidakwera kuchokera pa 15 peresenti mpaka 40 peresenti yachuma chapachaka (kapena GDP) mu 1942 mpaka 70 peresenti nthawi ina mu 1944. Motero, kuchira kwadzaoneni ndi kugwa kwachuma kwa mtundu Wachiwiri kunali kotheka kokha chifukwa cha kuwononga ndalama kwa boma kwadzaoneniโmonga momwe zinalili mu 1915-1918 potsirizira pake kugwa kwachuma kwa mtundu woyamba.
Mfundo yofunika kwambiri imeneyi sikutanthauza kuti nkhondo yapadziko lonse, mwina, ndiyo njira yokhayo yothetsera mavuto aakulu a zachuma kapena kuvutika maganizo. Zikutanthauza, komabe, kuti ndalama zochulukirapo zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito mwanjira ina ndi zomwe zatsimikizira kale njira yofunikira kuti chuma chibwererenso pakagwa mavuto aakulu azachuma monga kugwa kwachuma ndi kupsinjika maganizo. Osati kuwonjezeka kwa 5 peresenti ya GDP, monga momwe zidachitikira kumayambiriro kwa 2009 ndi phukusi loyamba la Obama la $ 787 biliyoni - koma mapepala olimbikitsa omwe ali ndi 15-20 peresenti ya GDP, kapena, masiku ano ofanana ndi $ 2.5-3 thililiyoni. (Mwina ndizothandiza kudziwa kuti chuma chimodzi chokha chachikulu poyankha kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kudayambitsa njira yolimbikitsira yomwe idafika pafupifupi 20 peresenti ya GDP yake. Dzikoli ndi chuma chake chinali China chomwe, mwa mbiri yonse, chinabwereranso m'mbuyomu. milingo ndi mitengo yakukula kwachuma pofika 2010.)
Maphunziro a Zakale za Epic Recessions
To tsiku, olamulira a Obama athana ndi zovuta zomwe zilipo ngati kuti ndikugwa kwachuma. Iwo achotsa mbali yokha ya dongosolo lazachuma ndipo motero aletsa kwakanthawi kugwa kwake kwina. Koma kukhazikika kwa mabanki kungathe, makamaka, kubweretsa nyengo yotalikirapo ya kusokonekera kwachuma. Sizingabweretse kuchira kokhazikika. Njira yonse ya Obama mu 2009 idanenedweratu poganiza kuti kubweza mabanki kudzabweza ngongole, monga momwe iye ndi alangizi ake amanenera mobwerezabwereza. Koma sizinatero. Mbiri tsopano ikuwonekeratu kuti mabanki sangabwereke - osati kwa mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono ndi apakatikati omwe amafunikira kwambiri. Adzapitirizabe kulingalira padziko lonse lapansi, kufunafuna phindu lachangu komanso lofulumira. Zidzatengera kukonzanso kwamabanki kuti asinthe izi. Monga momwe kukonzanso kofunikira kwachuma cha US kudzafunika.
Ataphulitsa mabiliyoni ambiri a madola omwe akuthandizira mabanki ndi makampani akuluakulu (monga GM, yemwe tsopano akugulitsa ndalama zambiri ku China ndi kwina m'malo mwa US), ngongole za ogula ndi zapakhomo zikadali zowopsa. Pakadali pano, ndalama zomwe anthu ambiri amapeza m'banjamo zikupitilirabe kutsika chifukwa cha ulova womwe sunathetsedwe, kuchepetsedwa kwa malipiro ndi malipiro, kuchepa kwa phindu, kuchepa kwa ndalama zopuma pantchito, mavuto osiyanasiyana azachuma, ndi zina zambiri.
Izi zinali choncho pambuyo pa 1907, 1930-1931, ku Japan pambuyo pa 1991, ndi kwina kulikonse. Kuchulukitsa kwachuma kumabanki kutsatira zovuta zazachuma zomwe zadzetsa kutsika kwachuma kungathe kuchita bwino pakukhazikitsa njira zamabanki kwakanthawi; koma sizimabweretsa kubweza ngongole ndi kubwereketsa kofunikira kuti pakhale kubweza chuma chokhazikika. Kuchira sikungokhazikitsa dongosolo lakubanki. Komanso sikubwereranso kwa GDP pakukula kwabwino - GDP ndiyosakwanira kuyesa njira zakugwa kwachuma kapena kukhumudwa. Mayankho anthawi zonse pazachuma, mwachitsanzo, misonkho yocheperako komanso momwe boma limawonongera ndalama, nawonso sakwanira kuti abweze bwino ndipo, makamaka, amathetsa vuto la kugwa kwa ndalama ndi bizinesi.
Obama ndi utsogoleri wake, Congress, ndi umoyo wa mamiliyoni makumi ambiri ali pamphambano mu 2010. Kodi Obama ali ndi luso lowoneratu zam'tsogolo komanso mphamvu zaumwini kuti atembenukire ku pulogalamu ya anthu omwe ali ngati FDR? Kapena kodi apitiliza ndi pulogalamu ina ya ntchito, kukonzanso pulogalamu yobwezeretsa nyumba, ndi nkhani zambiri zolimba za mabanki koma zina zochepa? Lingaliro la wolemba uyu ndikuti azisewera bwino ndikusindikiza tsogolo lake mu Novembala ndi pambuyo pake. Masiku 60 otsatirawa adzanena ngati malingaliro ake a 2010 akupitiriza kukhala ochepa kwambiri.
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Jack Rasmus ndiye wolemba zikubwerazi Epic Recession: Prelude to Global Depression (Palgrave-Macmillan ndi Pluto Press).