Muyenera kudzitsina nokha. Mpaka pano, Dzuwa ladzudzula akatswiri azachilengedwe monga "loonies" ndi "ndevu za eco". Sabata yatha idasindikiza "umboni wazithunzi kuti kusintha kwanyengo kulidi." (1). Patsamba lomwe likanabwera molunjika kuchokera ku kabuku ka Greenpeace, idakhazikitsa "malamulo" khumi kuti owerenga atsatire - "Gwiritsani ntchito zoyendera za anthu onse ngati kuli kotheka; gwiritsani ntchito mababu opulumutsa mphamvu; zimitsani zida zamagetsi pakhoma; osagwiritsa ntchito chowumitsira potoโฆโ(2).
Masabata awiri apitawa, a Economist adasiyanso. M'mbuyomu idanenanso kuti "A Bush anali olondola kukana pangano la Kyoto lokwera mtengo kwambiri"(3). Inasindikizanso mapepala a Copenhagen Consensus, omwe amaika kusintha kwa nyengo pansi pa mndandanda wa zinthu zofunika kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi(4). Tsopano, m'nkhani yapadera yomwe ikuwopseza owerenga ake, ikunena kuti "gawo lazinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe zimayenera kugwiritsidwa ntchito poletsa kutulutsa mpweya mwina ndi ... pansi pa 1%."(5) Imafunika kaboni misonkho ndi pulogalamu yofuna kuwononga ndalama za boma.
Pafupifupi kulikonse, kukana kusintha kwanyengo tsopano kukuwoneka ngati kopusa komanso kosavomerezeka monga kukana kwa Holocaust. Koma sindikondwererabe. Choopsa chake sichikutanthauza kuti tidzasiya kulankhula za kusintha kwa nyengo, kapena kuzindikira kuti kumabweretsa chiopsezo kwa anthu. Choopsa chake nโchakuti tidzalankhula tokha ku Ufumu Bwerani.
Ngati chilengedwe chawonongeka, sichidzachitidwa ndi iwo omwe sakanatha kudziletsa, popeza tsopano ali m'gulu laling'ono lomwe likucheperachepera. Idzaonongedwa ndi anthu abwino, a zolinga zabwino, okonda dziko lonse lapansi omwe amavomereza mlandu wodula mpweya, koma omwe sangasinthe ndi gawo limodzi momwe amakhalira. Ndikudziwa anthu omwe amati amasamala kwambiri za kutentha kwa dziko, koma ndani angamwe posakhalitsa Bakha wa Chimbudzi kusiyana ndi kuchotsa mpweya wawo, ma heaters a patio ndi ma TV a plasma, onse omwe amawononga kwambiri.
Kabuku kaposachedwapa kofalitsidwa ndi Co-operative Bank imadzitama kuti โnsanja yake yoyendera dzuwaโ ku Manchester โidzapanga magetsi okwanira chaka chilichonse kupanga makapu 9 miliyoni a tiyi.โ Patsamba lapitalo, ikulimbikitsa makasitomala ake "kukhala ndi maloto ndi kugula nyumba yabwino yatchuthi ... Ndi ndege zotsika mtengo zomwe zilipo tsopano, kupita kunyumba kwanu padzuwa pakagwa chipewa ndikotheka kuposa momwe mukuganizira. โ(6)
Ngakhale kuti chilengedwe chakhala chikudziwika ngati chodetsa nkhaลตa pakati pa anthu apakati, ndipo pamene izi nthawi zambiri zakhala zopanda chilungamo, tsopano pali mgwirizano wosatsutsika wa ndale zamagulu ndi makhalidwe abwino-ogula malonda. Anthu amadzilola kukhulupirira kuti zomwe akhudzidwa nazo padziko lapansi ndizocheperako kuposa zomwe sizinasambitsidwe chifukwa amagula ku Waitrose osati Asda, amagula tomme de savoie m'malo mwa magawo a tchizi ndikutenga eco-safaris ku Serengeti m'malo mwatchuthi. Torremolinos Zoona zake, mpweya wa carbon umagwirizana kwambiri ndi ndalama zomwe mumapeza: mukakhala olemera, mumakhala ndi mwayi wowononga dziko lapansi, ngakhale matabwa odulidwa ndi mbale zoponyedwa pamanja zili m'khitchini yanu.
Sizithandiza kuti andale, mabizinesi komanso ochita kampeni yosintha nyengo amafuna kutiteteza ku chowonadi chankhanza cha kuchuluka komwe kukuyenera kusintha. Sabata yatha a Friends of the Earth adafalitsa lipoti lomwe adapereka kuchokera ku bungwe la Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research, lomwe lidafotokoza za kuchepetsa mpweya wa 90% pofika chaka cha 2050 (7). Izi zidadabwitsa m'manyuzipepala. Koma kuwerengera kwina, pogwiritsa ntchito magwero omwewo, kukuwonetsa kuti ngakhale cholinga chofuna kutchukachi chachedwa zaka makumi awiri (8). Zimakhala zovuta, koma chonde pirirani nane, chifukwa tsogolo lathu likudalira manambala awa.
Bungwe la Tyndall Center limati kuti dziko lisatenthe ndi madigiri oposa awiri pamwamba pa mlingo wa carbon dioxide mโmlengalenga uyenera kukhazikika pa magawo 450 pa miliyoni kapena kucheperapo (pakali pano akuima pa 380). Koma izi, monga momwe magwero ake amasonyezera, ndizosakwanira(9).
Chifukwa chake ndi chakuti mpweya woipa (CO2) siwokhawo wowonjezera kutentha. Zina - monga methane, nitrous oxide ndi hydrofluorocarbons - zimakulitsa mphamvu zake ndi 15%. Mukawonjezera kuchuluka kwa CO2 ndi mpweya wina wowonjezera kutentha palimodzi, mumapeza chithunzi chodziwika kuti "CO2 yofanana". Koma likulu la Tyndall limagwiritsa ntchito "CO2" ndi "CO2 yofanana" mosiyana, zomwe zimatsogolera ku mishmash yochititsa manyazi ya sayansi.
"Kukhazikika kwa magawo 450 pa miliyoni CO2 ofanana kapena kutsika", ikutero, kumapereka "mpata wokwanira mpaka wapamwamba wosapitirira 2 digiri C" (10). Izi ndi zoona, koma lipoti silikufuna malire a magawo 450 a "CO2 yofanana". Ikuyitana malire a magawo 450 a CO2, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti magawo 500 a CO2 ofanana. Pamulingo uwu, pali kuthekera kotsika mpaka kutsika kwambiri kosunga kutentha mpaka pansi pa madigiri a 2 (11,12). Nangano nโchifukwa chiyani bungwe lasayansi lodziwika bwino limeneli padziko lapansi lasokoneza ziwerengerozi?
Yankho mungalipeze patsamba 16 la lipotilo. "Monga momwe zimakhalira ndi maubwenzi onse a kasitomala ndi alangizi, malire adakhazikitsidwa momwe angagwiritsire ntchito kusanthula. โฆ Friends of the Earth, molumikizana ndi mabungwe omwe siaboma komanso ndi thandizo la zipani zosiyanasiyana kuchokera kwa aphungu, akhala akulimbikira kuti akhazikitse 'bilu ya kusintha kwa nyengo' โฆ [Bilu] idakhazikitsidwa pa mgwirizano wa 2 ยฐC yokhala ndi magawo 450 pa miliyoni ya CO2.
Mwa kuyankhula kwina, Friends of the Earth anali ataika kale chandamale asanafunse ofufuza ake kuti adziwe chomwe chandamale chiyenera kukhala. Ndikukayikira kuti idasankha nambala yolakwika chifukwa imakhulupirira kuti 90% yodulidwa pofika 2030 sikhala yovomerezeka pandale.
Izi zikufanana ndi kukana kwa Sir David King, wasayansi wamkulu, kuyitanitsa chandamale cha magawo osakwana 550 pa miliyoni miliyoni ya CO2 mumlengalenga, chifukwa "zingakhale zosatheka pandale"(13). Uthengawu ukuwoneka kuti sayansi ikhoza kupita ku gehena - tidzauza anthu zomwe timaganiza kuti angathe kupirira.
Choncho tonsefe timadzinyenga tokha ndipo timanamizana za kusintha komwe kukufunika kuchitika. Anthu apakati akuganiza kuti apita obiriwira chifukwa amagula zovala za thonje zopangidwa ndi organic ndi sopo zopangidwa ndi manja zomwe zimakhala ndi masamba - ngakhale amatenthetsa malo awo osungiramo zinthu zakale ndikusunga nyumba zawo za tchuthi ku Croatia. Anthu omwe akuyenera kukumana nawo ndi chowonadi cholimba amalimbana ndi vutolo. Ndipo andale sadumpha mpaka enafe titero.
Lamlungu a Liberal Democrats adalengeza kuti akupanga kusintha kwanyengo kukhala chinthu chofunikira kwambiri pandale, ndipo Lachiwiri adavota kuti asinthe misonkho kuchokera kwa anthu kupita kuipitsa. Poyamba zimawoneka molimba mtima, koma kenako mumapeza kuti sanakhudze vutolo. Ngakhale ma risiti onse amisonkho ku United Kingdom amafika pa $350 biliyoni pachaka(14), akufuna kusintha ndalama zokwana ยฃ8 biliyoni - kapena 2.3%.
Ndiye funso lomwe tsopano likukumana ndi aliyense - ndale, magulu a kampeni, asayansi, owerenga Guardian komanso Economist ndi Dzuwa - ndi ili: mungatenge zenizeni zingati? Kodi mukufunadi kuletsa chipwirikiti cha nyengo, kapena mumangofuna kudzimva bwino?
Buku la George Monbiot Kutentha: momwe mungaletsere kutentha kwa dziko lapansi tsopano lafalitsidwa ndi Penguin. Wakhazikitsanso tsamba latsopano - turnuptheheat.org - kuwulula zoyeserera zabodza zamakampani pakusintha kwanyengo.
www.monbiot.com
Zothandizira:
1. Martin Phillips, 14th September 2006. Kukokoloka ku gahena. Dzuwa.
2. Harry MacAdam, 13th September 2006. Masiku asanu ndi awiri ndi zobiriwira. Dzuwa.
3. Palibe mlembi, 16 February 2002. Utsi wofuka - Dongosolo lotentha la dziko la George Bush. The Economist.
4. Palibe mlembi, 1st May 2004. Digiri ya kusiyana - The economics of climate change. The Economist.
5. Palibe wolemba, 9th September 2006. Kutentha Kuli Pa. The Economist.
6. Cooperative Bank, July 2006. Living the Dream. Kabuku katumizidwa kwa makasitomala.
7. Alice Bows et al, July 2006. Kukhala mkati mwa bajeti ya carbon. Report for Friends of the Earth ndi The Co-operative Bank. Lofalitsidwa mu September 2006. http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/living_carbon_budget.pdf
8. Izi zikufotokozedwa mu George Monbiot, 2006. Kutentha: momwe mungaletsere kutentha kwa dziko. Penguin, London.
9. Malte Meinshausen, 2006. Kodi cholinga cha 2C chikutanthauza chiyani pa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha?
kukhazikika? Kupewa Kusintha Kwa Nyengo Koopsa - Mutu 28. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/pdf/avoid-dangercc.pdf
10. Alice Bows et al, ibid, p14.
11. Bill Hare ndi Malte Meinshausen, 2004. Kodi Timadzipereka Kutentha Kwambiri Bwanji Ndipo Tingapewe Motani? Lipoti la PIK 93, Chithunzi 7, tsamba 24. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/publications/pik_reports/reports/pr.93/pr93.pdf
12. Paul Baer ndi Tom Athanasiou, 2005. Kuona Mtima Ponena za Kusintha Kwanyengo Koopsa.
http://www.ecoequity.org/ceo/ceo_8_2.htm
13. David King, 21st September 2005. Kulankhula ku Decarbonising the UK conference, Church House, Westminster.
14. Ofesi ya National Statistics, per comm ? chiwerengero cha FY 2005/6.