Na yi imani da mun yi kuskure: kuskure wanda sakamakonsa, idan na yi gaskiya, zai yi wuya a wuce gona da iri. Ina tsammanin hasashen samar da abinci a duniya na iya zama gaba ɗaya kuskure.
Farashin abinci ya sake yin tashin gwauron zabi, saboda barnar da aka yi wa amfanin gona a yankin arewacin kasar ta hanyar muguwar yanayi. A cikin Amurka, Rasha da Yukren, fari na ban mamaki ya rufe amfanin gonakin hatsi. A wasu sassan arewacin Turai, kamar Burtaniya, ruwan sama mara iyaka ya rutsa da su.
Duk da haka, wannan ba, kamar yadda wani rahoto a cikin Guardian ya yi iƙirari a makon da ya gabata, "ɗaya daga cikin mafi munin girbin duniya a cikin shekaru" (1). Yana daya daga cikin mafi kyau. Noman hatsi a duniya a bara shi ne mafi girma da aka samu; amfanin gona na wannan shekara shine kawai 2.6% karami (2). Matsalar ita ce, saboda haɗuwa da haɓakar yawan jama'a da kuma karkatar da lalata da yawa na hatsi zuwa abincin dabbobi da man fetur (3), dole ne a kafa sabon tarihi a kowace shekara. Ko da yake shekarar 2012 ita ce girbi na uku mafi girma a duniya a tarihi (bayan 2011 da 2008) (4), wannan kuma shekara ce ta karancin abinci, wanda a cikinta za mu ci fiye da ton miliyan 28 fiye da manoman da aka noma (5). Idan girbi na 2013 bai kafa sabon tarihin duniya ba, matalauta suna cikin matsala mai tsanani.
Don haka tambayar ta yaya canjin yanayi zai iya canza samar da abinci ba zai iya zama mai mahimmanci ba. Hakanan yana da matukar wahala a iya warwarewa, kuma ya dogara da irin waɗannan kayan aikin masu ban tsoro kamar "samfuran jujjuyawar juzu'i masu yawa"(6). Matsalar ita ce akwai abubuwa da yawa da ke tattare da hakan. Shin za a soke karin ruwan sama ta hanyar karin danshi? Shin tasirin takin carbon dioxide zai kasance mafi ƙarfi fiye da lalacewar zafi da yake haifarwa? Har yaushe manoma za su iya daidaitawa? Shin sabbin nau'ikan amfanin gona za su ci gaba da canza yanayi?
Amma, in faɗi sosai, yarjejeniya ita ce, sauyin yanayi zai cutar da manoma a wurare masu zafi da kuma taimakawa manoma a ƙasashe masu zafi. Shahararriyar takarda da aka buga a shekara ta 2005 ta kammala cewa idan muka bi yanayin da ake ciki na samar da iskar gas mai gurbata yanayi (wanda muke ciki a halin yanzu), dumamar yanayi zai haifar da girbi a kasashe masu arziki da kashi 3% nan da 2080s, kuma za a rage yawan amfanin gonaki. su a cikin kasashe matalauta da kashi 7% (7). Wannan yana ba da raguwar wadatar abinci a duniya gabaɗaya (idan aka kwatanta da abin da zai faru ba tare da canjin yanayi na ɗan adam ba) na 5%.
Takardun da aka buga tun daga lokacin sun goyi bayan wannan ƙarshe: sun hango lokuta masu wahala ga manoma a Afirka da Kudancin Asiya (8,9,10), amma bonanza ga manoma a sassan duniya masu sanyi (11,12,13), waɗanda amfanin gona zai yi. tashi kamar yadda kasashe masu tasowa suka kasa ciyar da kansu. Sauyin yanayi na iya yin illa ga yawancin matalauta na duniya. Idan manoma a kasashe masu tasowa ba za su iya yin takara ba, duk abin da suke samu da kuma wadatar abinci za su ragu, kuma adadin mutanen da ke fama da tamowa na dindindin na iya karuwa. Al'ummar da suke rayuwa a cikinsu, wanda ya kamata a ce yawan ci gaban da suke samu ya samo asali ne daga samar da abinci, dole ne su shigo da abinci da yawa daga kasashen waje. Amma dangane da ɗimbin kayan masarufi, ƙirar ba ta yin hasashen wata matsala mai yuwuwa.
To a nan ne batun ya taso. Samfuran da yawancin waɗannan takaddun ke amfani da su suna hasashen tasirin canje-canje a matsakaicin yanayi. Ba su la'akari da matsanancin yanayi na yanayi (14,15). Gaskia: sun riga sun rikiɗe. Amma idan canje-canjen girman girbin duniya aka ƙayyade ƙasa da matsakaicin yanayi fa?
Wannan shi ne abin da ya faru a cikin 2012. Wannan shi ne abin da ake ganin zai iya faruwa a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Ga dalilin da ya sa. Wani takarda a wannan shekara da babban masanin kimiyyar yanayi a duniya James Hansen ya nuna cewa yawan al'amura masu zafi (kamar fari da suka mamaye Amurka da Rasha) ya karu da kusan 50 idan aka kwatanta da shekarun da suka gabata kafin 1980(16). . Shekaru arba'in da suka wuce, matsanancin zafi na rani yakan shafi tsakanin 0.1 zuwa 0.2% na duniya. A halin yanzu yana da kusan kashi 10%. "Za mu iya yin aiki da kwarin gwiwa," in ji jaridar, "cewa yankin da ke fama da matsanancin zafi zai ci gaba da karuwa a cikin 'yan shekarun da suka gabata kuma ma za a yi mugun nufi." Amma duk da haka waɗannan matsananciyar ba su bayyana a cikin daidaitattun samfuran da ke hasashen canje-canjen amfanin amfanin gona ba.
Idan tsarin da wata takarda ta gabatar daidai ne, ba kawai matsanancin zafi ba ne zai iya tashi (17). Na bayyana wannan a baya, amma ina ganin yana da daraja a maimaita. Rafin jet wani yanayi ne na iska da ke tafiya gabas a kewayen arewaci na sama. Yana raba yanayin sanyi mai sanyi zuwa arewa da zafi, bushewar yanayi zuwa kudu. Haushi tare da wannan kintinkiri manyan ma'anoni ne da ake kira Rossby waves. Yayin da Arctic ke zafi, masu tsaka-tsakin suna raguwa kuma sun zama masu tsayi. Yanayin ya makale.
Manne yanayi wata hanya ce ta faɗin matsanancin yanayi. Idan rafin jet ya matse zuwa arewacin inda kake, yanayin yana tsayawa zafi da bushewa, kuma yanayin zafi yana haɓaka - kuma sama. Idan ya sauka a kudancin ku, ruwan sama ya ci gaba da zubowa, ƙasa ta cika, koguna kuma suka fashe. A wannan lokacin rani da Burtaniya da Amurka da alama sun sami kansu a ɓangarorin maɓalli na makale, kuma girbin amfanin gona a ƙasashen biyu ya sha wahala ta hanyar adawa da matsanancin yanayi.
Wannan shi ne inda muke tsayawa tare da kawai digiri 0.8 na dumamar yanayi da asarar 30% na kankara na rani. Hoton duniyar da ke da digiri 2, 4 ko 6 na dumamar yanayi da sandar igiya ba tare da kankara ba, kuma kuna da ra'ayin abin da zai iya zuwa.
Manoma a cikin ƙasashe masu arziki na iya daidaitawa da canji a matsakaicin yanayi. Yana da wuya a ga yadda za su iya daidaitawa da matsananciyar al'amura, musamman idan waɗannan abubuwan sun bambanta a kowace shekara. A lokacin hunturu da ya gabata, alal misali, na kwashe kwanaki ina tabbatar da fari na itacen apple, kamar yadda bazarar da ta gabata ta bushe sosai - 'yan makonni bayan pollination - yawancin 'ya'yan itacen sun bushe sun mutu. Wannan bazarar ta kasance jika sosai har da kyar masu yin pollinators suka fito kwata-kwata: furen da ba ta da taki ne ya bushe ya mutu. Na gode wa taurari na cewa ban yi rayuwa ta haka ba.
Wataƙila babu wata al'ada kuma. Wataƙila matsakaicin matsakaicin yanayin ɗumamar yanayin yanayin yanayi - lokaci guda mai ban tsoro da ban mamaki - rufe iyakar daji wanda babu manomi da zai iya tsarawa wanda babu manomi da zai iya amsawa. A ina wannan zai bar duniya wanda dole ne ko dai ya ci gaba da haɓaka samarwa ko kuma yunwa?
www.monbiot.com
References:
1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/10/un-rising-food-costs-weather
2. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
3. http://www.monbiot.com/2007/11/06/an-agricultural-crime-gainst-humanity/
4. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
5. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/161602/icode/
6. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2030220
7. Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig da Matthew Livermore, 2005. Canjin yanayi, samar da abinci na duniya da hadarin yunwa. Ma'amalar Falsafa na Royal Society - B, juzu'i na 360, shafi 2125–2138. doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1751 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1569580/
8. Misali Jerry Knox, Tim Hess, Andre Daccache da Tim Wheeler, 2012. Sauyin yanayi yana tasiri ga amfanin amfanin gona a Afirka da Kudancin Asiya. Haruffa Binciken Muhalli 7. 034032. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032
9. Christoph Müller et al, 2012. Haɗarin canjin yanayi ga aikin noma na Afirka. Abubuwan da aka ɗauka na Cibiyar Nazarin Kimiyya ta Ƙasa ta Farko. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1015078108
10. P. Krishnan et al, 2011. Babban tasirin zafi akan ci gaban shinkafa, yawan amfanin ƙasa, da ingancin hatsi. Ci gaba a Agronomy. Vol 111, shafi 87-205.
11. Jan Beck, 2012. Hasashen tasirin canjin yanayi akan aikin noma daga ƙirar ƙirar muhalli: wane riba, wa ya yi hasara? Canjin yanayi - an buga shi akan layi.
doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0481-x http://www.springerlink.com/content/p46301h961544077/
12. Tom Osborne, Gillian Rose da Tim Wheeler, 2012 (a cikin latsawa). Bambance-bambancen tasirin sauyin yanayi na duniya kan yawan amfanin gona saboda rashin tabbas da kuma daidaita yanayin yanayi. Aikin noma da yanayin daji. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.006
13. Kyungsuk Cho et al, 2012. Yawan alkama na hunturu a Burtaniya: rashin tabbas a cikin
yanayi da tasirin gudanarwa. Binciken Yanayi. Vol. 54, shafi 49-68.
doi: 10.3354/cr01085
14. Misali Martin Parry, Cynthia Rosenzweig da Matthew Livermore, 2005 (kamar yadda yake sama) sun rubuta: “Tsarin haɓaka amfanin gona ya ƙunshi sauƙaƙa da yawa. Misali, ciyawa, cututtuka da kwari ana tsammanin ana sarrafa su, babu matsala yanayin ƙasa (misali yawan salinity ko acidity) kuma babu matsanancin yanayi kamar hadari mai ƙarfi.”
15. da Kyungsuk Cho et al, 2012 (kamar yadda yake sama) suna bayyana: "Ba mu haɗa da abubuwan da aka haifar ba.
ta yanayi mara kyau na ƙasa kamar salinity, acidity da compaction, matsanancin yanayin yanayi ko kwari da cututtuka, waɗanda sauyin yanayi zai iya shafan su kai tsaye ko a kaikaice da kuma haifar da canje-canje a ayyukan gudanarwa.”
16. James Hansen, Makiko Satoa, Reto Ruedy, 2012. Tunanin canjin yanayi. Abubuwan da aka gabatar na Kwalejin Kimiyya ta Kasa, wanda aka buga akan layi. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.full.pdf+html?with-ds=yes
17. Jennifer A. Francis da Stephen J. Vavrus, 2012. Shaidar da ke danganta ƙarawar Arctic zuwa matsanancin yanayi a tsakiyar latitudes. Haruffa Binciken Geophysical, Vol. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000.
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