Hankalin kafafen yada labarai da masana tattalin arziki na Amurka a cikin watanni da dama da suka gabata yana karuwa kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. A cikin 'yan makonnin nan, duk da haka, masu tsara manufofin Amurka sun farka tare da fahimtar cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na daɗaɗɗa, da ƙarfi, da kuma ƙara yin barazana ga makomar tattalin arzikin Amurka nan take.
An kai madaidaicin 'kofar wayar da kan jama'a' a wannan makon da ya gabata lokacin da babban bankin Amurka, Babban Bankin Tarayya, ya kara saurin hauhawar farashin sa da maki 75 - da nufin kawo karshen hauhawar farashin farashi. Ko Fed na iya yin nasara wajen daidaita hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da yin hakan ba tare da haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki ba ya rage a gani amma ba zai yuwu ba. Taimakawa hauhawar farashin kaya ba tare da haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki ba shine babban tambayar tattalin arziki na ragowar 2022.
A bayyane yake wasu suna ganin hakan mai yiyuwa ne—watau ƙarin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai daidaita saurin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba tare da haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki na gaske ba kuma ya haifar da abin da ake kira 'saukarwa mai laushi'. A bayyane yake Fed da gwamnatin Biden sun yi imanin hakan zai faru. Amma ƙungiyar mawaƙa ta hatta masana tattalin arziki da sassan bincike na banki ba sa tunanin haka. Kusan sabbin hasashen yau da kullun na bankunan duniya da manazarta sun bayyana suna nuna koma bayan tattalin arziki fiye da 50-50 mai yuwuwa - kuma zai zo da wuri a ƙarshen 2022 fiye da na 2023.
Wannan labarin ya ƙare ba tare da shakka ba cewa manufofin kuɗi na Fed na yau na haɓaka yawan riba ba zai iya rage hauhawar farashin kaya ba yayin da yake guje wa koma bayan tattalin arziki-duk fiye da irin wannan ƙimar Fed a cikin 1980-81 ya yi. Kuma wannan lokacin hauhawar farashin ba zai buƙaci haɓaka kamar na 1980-81 ba kafin su jefa tattalin arzikin cikin wani koma bayan tattalin arziki na gaskiya.
Tun daga watan Yuni 2022 Fed ya haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin kuɗin kuɗin tarayya zuwa babban ƙarshen kewayon 1.75%. Yana shirin ninka wancan aƙalla a ƙarshen 2022, zuwa kewayon 3.5% zuwa 4%. Amma tattalin arzikin Amurka ya kusa durkushewa kuma alamu na kara samun rauni. Kamar yadda wannan marubucin ya yi jayayya tun daga faɗuwar 2021, ƙimar Fed zuwa 4% ko fiye tabbas tabbas yana nufin 'saukarwa mai wahala', watau koma bayan tattalin arziki. Haka kuma, ba zai rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki haka ba. Farashi ba zai ragu sosai ba har sai Amurka ta shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Wannan yana nufin yanayin da ake kira stagflation, tattalin arziƙin gaske na kwangila a tsakanin hauhawar farashin da yanayin tattalin arziƙin da ba a gani a Amurka ba tun ƙarshen 1970s. Stagflation ya riga ya isa idan mutum yayi la'akari da kusan tattalin arzikin Amurka a farkon rabin 2022; kuma zai zurfafa da zarar koma bayan tattalin arziki ya fara a rabi na biyu.
Don fahimtar dalilin da ya sa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba zai ragu da yawa ba a shekarar 2022, da kuma dalilin da ya sa koma bayan tattalin arziki za a samu wani lokaci kafin karshen shekarar nan, ya zama dole a fara fahimtar Halittar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki (watau tsari da juyin halitta) wanda ya bayyana a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan tsarin jiki, ko tsari, na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya nuna abubuwan da ke haifar da su a halin yanzu ba su dace da hauhawar farashin Fed a cikin gajeren lokaci ko ma matsakaici na watanni goma sha biyu masu zuwa ba.
Wajibi ne a fahimci dalilin da ya sa manufofin kuɗi a cikin nau'i na ƙimar Fed ba zai rage yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba kafin koma bayan tattalin arziki ya faru-da kuma dalilin da ya sa irin wannan hawan hawan zai sami tasiri mafi girma a kan ƙaddamar da koma bayan tattalin arziki tun kafin Fed na iya kawo farashin farashi. kasa zuwa dogon zangonsa na tarihi na kashi 2%.
Tsarin Halittar Haɗin Kan Amurka: 2021-22
Bayan haɓaka matsakaicin kusan kashi 4% na shekara-shekara lokacin da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya fara buɗewa a cikin bazara na 2021, yana da mahimmanci a lura da saurin farashin mabukaci ya tsaya tsayin daka tsawon watanni huɗu masu zuwa a duk lokacin bazara na 2020, a kusan 5.5%. (Sabbin Sakin Ofishin Kididdiga na Ma'aikata, Mayu 11, 2022, Chart 2). Wannan matakin ya fara tashi a hankali kowane wata kawai bayan ƙarshen Agusta 2021.
Farawa a watan Satumbar 2021 da ya gabata hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka ba kawai ya fara haɓakawa ba amma tun daga lokacin ya zama na yau da kullun. Hatta jiga-jigan manufofin Amurka ba za su iya musun hakan ba. Tun da farko a cikin 2022 Sakatariyar Baitulmali Janet Yellen ta bayyana a bainar jama'a cewa hauhawan farashin Amurka zai kasance ' gajeriyar rayuwa kuma na ɗan lokaci'. A watan Yuni sai ta sake ba da hakuri tare da ba da hakuri game da hasashen da ba daidai ba. Kuma wannan makon da ya gabata ya yarda cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yanzu an 'kulle shi' na sauran 2022.
Menene dalilai da shaidun hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya zama dindindin kuma na dindindin - aƙalla har sai koma bayan tattalin arziki ya fara?
Babu shakka cewa Buƙatar, saboda sake buɗe tattalin arzikin Amurka bayan mafi munin Covid a cikin Maris-Afrilu 2021 ya ba da gudummawa ga bullar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a ƙarshen bazara-lokacin bazara na 2021. Amma Buƙatun wuce gona da iri ba shine farkon bayaninsa ba. Bukatar kayayyaki da ayyuka sun tashi a tsakanin Afrilu-Mayu 2021 yayin da ma'aikata suka koma bakin aikinsu da samun karuwar albashi. Koyaya, rikodin ya nuna bayan tashin hankali a cikin Afrilu-Mayu 2021, farashin mabukaci ya daidaita a duk lokacin bazara na 2021, Yuni zuwa Agusta 2021, akan sama da kashi 5%. Ya kasance a tsaye daga baya a wancan matakin na waɗannan watanni yayin da tattalin arzikin ya ci gaba da buɗewa.
Haɓaka farashin a cikin sauri ya fara ne kawai a ƙarshen lokacin rani, kusan Agusta-Satumba. Wannan haɓakar farashin ya zo daidai da hauhawar matsaloli a cikin sarƙoƙi na samarwa—dukansu ta nau'in shigo da kayayyaki na duniya zuwa Amurka da kuma batutuwan samar da kayayyaki na cikin gida na Amurka da ke da alaƙa da jigilar kayayyaki, ɗakunan ajiya, da samun ƙwararrun ma'aikata. A takaice, yayin da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya yi kokarin sake bude sarkar samar da kayayyaki a duniya har yanzu ya karye kuma, a cikin gida, kasuwannin Amurka da kasuwannin kwadago sun ji rauni sosai sakamakon tasirin abubuwan da suka faru na Covid na Maris 2020 zuwa Maris 2021.
'Yan siyasa masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, sha'awar kasuwanci, da reshensu na kafofin watsa labarai na yau da kullun, duk da haka sun yi iƙirari a lokacin - kuma galibi har yanzu suna ci gaba da kasancewa a yau - cewa ya kasance mai karimci, tallafin kuɗi mai yawa daga shirye-shiryen net ɗin agajin jama'a na Amurka (ARP). a cikin Maris 2021, da shirye-shiryen da suka gabace su a shekara guda da ta gabata, wanda ke da alhakin wuce gona da iri a tsakiyar 2021 kuma don haka hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya biyo bayan Satumba na waccan shekarar.
Amma ko bayanan gwamnatin Amurka ba su goyi bayan wannan ra'ayi ba. ARP ta ba da izinin kashe dala biliyan 800 kawai a cikin duka watanni goma sha biyu masu zuwa. Na 3rd kwata - cikakken kwata na farko lokacin da kashe shirin ARP ya mamaye tattalin arzikin kuma lokacin da farashin ya fara haɓakawa a cikin watan Agusta - tabbas bai wuce dala biliyan 200 daga shirye-shiryen ARP da ke shiga tattalin arzikin ba. An riga an rarraba ƙarin ƙididdigar kuɗin shiga kuma an kashe galibi a cikin 2nd kwata. Abin da ya rage a cikin 3rd na kowane girma sun kasance ƙarin fa'idodin rashin aikin yi, ƙaramin taimako na haya, da tallafin kula da yara na matsakaici da matsakaicin iyalai waɗanda aka gabatar a watan Yuli. Dala biliyan 200 allura mai yiwuwa ma ya yi yawa. Tabbas ba duk kudaden shiga na dala biliyan 200 da aka yiwa allura ba a zahiri aka kashe wancan kwata. (Kamar yadda masana tattalin arziki suka yarda, ra'ayin masu amfani da su don kashe ƙarin kuɗin shiga koyaushe yana ƙasa da 'ɗaya' - watau ba sa kashe su nan da nan). An kashe dala biliyan 150 ko makamancin haka. Wannan dala biliyan 150 ya kwatanta da 3rd kwata na jimlar GDP na sama da dala tiriliyan 5! Babu yadda tattalin arzikin da girmansa zai iya haifar da haɓakar farashin da ya fara a wancan lokacin daga allurar dala biliyan 150 akan fiye da dala tiriliyan 5.
Haka kuma, dala biliyan 150 na iya yin ƙima da yawa kuma. An katse yawancin abubuwan ƙarfafawar ARP a farkon watan Satumba, watan ƙarshe na 3rd kwata: misali, ƙarin fa'idodin rashin aikin yi da aka bayar a baya ga ma'aikata miliyan 10 ya ƙare, tare da taimakon haya, tallafin Tsarin Kariyar Biyan Biyan kuɗi ga ƙananan 'yan kasuwa, da sauran ƙananan allurai.
A taƙaice, gwargwadon buƙatun ya ba da gudummawa ga hauhawar farashin a cikin 2nd kuma 3rd Kwata-kwata, ana iya bayyana tasirin Buƙatun ta hanyar ci gaba da sake buɗe tattalin arziƙin a maimakon dogaro ga shirye-shiryen tallafin kuɗi na Shirin Ceto na Amurka wanda bai wuce dala biliyan 100- dala biliyan 150 ba a duk faɗin 3.rd kwata lokacin da farashin ya fara haɓaka. Da yawa don jayayya cewa ma'aikata sun cika da samun kudin shiga daga ayyukan da suke komawa da kuma shirye-shiryen samun kudin shiga na ARP fiye da gwamnati! Bayanan kawai ba su goyi bayan ra'ayin Buƙatar da Buƙatar kashe gwamnati musamman ke da alhakin fara hauhawar farashin a watan Satumban 2021 da ya gabata.
Mafi kusantar bayanin da ke bayan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a ƙarshen lokacin rani na 2021 shine matsalolin sarkar samar da kayayyaki a duniya, musamman abin da ya shafi shigo da kayayyaki daga Asiya da China musamman. A watan Agusta-Satumba yawancin farashin kayayyaki ne ke haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Kudaden mabukaci a kan ayyuka yana sake fitowa. Matsala ta sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki ita ce kamfanoni a duk duniya sun rufe ayyukansu yayin mafi munin Covid, suna barin ma'aikata da masu siyar da kaya su tafi. Lokacin da tattalin arzikin ya fara buɗewa a lokacin bazara na 2021, yawancin waɗannan ma'aikata da masu ba da kayayyaki ba su samuwa. Hakan ya kasance gaskiya musamman ga kwantena na duniya da sauran kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki. Babu isassun jiragen ruwa don isar da kayayyaki daga Asiya zuwa Arewacin Amurka. Abin da aka samo shi ne aka ƙaddamar da farko don jigilar kayayyaki tsakanin ƙasashen Asiya da farko. Bugu da ƙari, tashoshin jiragen ruwa na yammacin Amurka suna da irin wannan matsala: tashar jiragen ruwa ba su da ma'aikata na gargajiya da sufuri. Ba ma'aikatan tashar jiragen ruwa kadai ba amma manyan motocin daukar kaya masu zaman kansu wadanda suka dauki kaya daga tashar jiragen ruwa na Los Angeles, alal misali, zuwa manyan shaguna na tsakiya. Kuma tun daga waɗancan manyan ɗakunan ajiya zuwa ɗakunan ajiya na yanki waɗanda daga nan ake rarraba kayayyaki zuwa wuraren ajiya da shagunan kamfanoni. Kamar karancin motocin dakon kaya, an sami rashin isassun komawar ma'aikata zuwa shaguna su ma. Irin wannan matsalar karancin ma'aikata ta kasance tare da ma'aikatan jirgin kasa. A wasu kalmomi, har yanzu an karya sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na Amurka—tare da wadatar duniya.
Shirye-shiryen kara kuzari na gwamnatin Amurka na 2020 da 2021 yakamata su guje wa matsalolin samar da kayayyaki na cikin gida (aiki da sufuri) ta hanyar samarwa kasuwancin Amurka dala biliyan 625 a cikin lamuni da tallafi waɗanda za su ci gaba da ɗaukar ma'aikatansu aiki yayin rufewar tattalin arzikin Covid. An kira shi Shirin Kariyar Biyan Kuɗi, PPP. Fiye da kashi uku cikin huɗu na takaddun PPP ga 'yan kasuwa - kusan dukkanin lamunin an canza su zuwa tallafi kai tsaye - an keɓe don kashewa kan tallafin albashin ma'aikata. Sauran kan kuɗaɗen kai tsaye na kasuwanci, kamar farashin kayan aiki, ribar lamuni, da sauransu. Duk da haka, rikodin yanzu ya nuna hakan bai faru ba. Ba a gudanar da bincike don tabbatar da yadda aka kashe dala biliyan 625 na tallafin ba. Yawancin kasuwancin da ke samun tallafin PPP sun kori ma'aikatansu ko ta yaya. Bayan haka, yayin da tattalin arzikin Amurka ya yi ƙoƙarin sake buɗe kasuwancin iri ɗaya ya kasa samun ma'aikatan da aka sallama cikin sauri. Matsalolin samar da kayayyaki na cikin gida ne sakamakon hakan.
A bayyane yake cewa hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka da ya fara kusan ƙarshen Agusta-Satumba 2021 yana da alaƙa da batutuwan sarƙoƙi - na duniya da na cikin gida. Ba Bukatar ba. Wataƙila kashi uku cikin huɗu na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a lokacin suna da alaƙa da Supply; Sauran Buƙatun-da kuma Buƙatar ƙarin saboda saurin sake buɗe tattalin arzikin ƙasa fiye da shirye-shiryen samun kuɗin shiga na ARP waɗanda a zahiri ke ɓacewa a watan Satumba 2021.
An lullube kan wannan yanayin na galibin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, haɗe tare da wasu Buƙatu ya haifar da hauhawar farashin, har yanzu wani muhimmin ci gaba ne wanda ya fito a matsayin babban mahimmanci kamar 3.rd kwata 2021 ya ƙare: watau faɗaɗa farashin da kamfanonin Amurka ke yi tare da ƙarfin kasuwa wanda ya ba su damar haɓaka farashin fiye da buƙatu da wadata na yau da kullun.
Yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya karu kuma jama'a ke kara fahimtarsa, kamfanoni masu karfin iko (watau kamfanoni hudu ko biyar ko kasa suka samar da kashi 80% ko sama da haka na kayayyaki ko sabis a cikin tattalin arzikin) sun yi amfani da wannan wayar da kan jama'a game da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. domin su ɗaga farashin su—ko da a lokacin da masana'antunsu ba su fuskanci al'amurran sarkar kayayyaki ba.
Misali mai kyau shi ne kamfanonin mai na Amurka da ba su da matsalar samar da kayayyaki a lokacin kuma har yanzu ba su samu ba. Ƙungiyoyin mai na Amurka a lokacin, kamar yanzu, suna iya haɓaka yawan man da suke hakowa a Amurka (watau wadata) da aƙalla ƙarin ganga miliyan 2 a kowace rana. Sun zaɓi maimakon su bar wannan man a cikin ƙasa, ba don faɗaɗa hakowa a matatun Amurka ba, kuma sun ƙi sake buɗe yawancin rijiyoyin haƙa da suka yi a lokacin mafi muni na shekarar 2020-21 da ta gabata.
A cikin watannin da suka gabata farkon rufewar Covid a cikin Maris 2021 ƙungiyoyin mai na Amurka suna samar da fiye da ganga miliyan 13 a kowace rana; zuwa faɗuwar 2021 suna samar da kusan miliyan 11 a kowace rana (kuma har yanzu suna nan). Duk da haka, kamfanonin mai na Amurka sun kara farashinsu da sauri fiye da kowace masana'antu. Ya zuwa kwata na hudu 2021 farashin makamashi ya tashi da kashi 34.2% na shekara-shekara, bisa ga lissafin GDP na Amurka (Ofishin Harkokin Tattalin Arziƙi na Ƙasar Amurka, Teburin NIPA 2.3.7).
Tare da farashin yanzu ya hauhawa bayan Satumba 2021 muhimmin sabon abu kuma farashin tuki ba ya da alaƙa da wadata ko buƙata. Ma'auni ne na farashin da kamfanonin Amurka ke da ikon kasuwa don yin hakan. Kuma ba wai kawai kamfanonin mai ba, ko da yake suna da alhakin fiye da rabin farashin farashi a lokacin - kuma har yanzu suna. Sauran kamfanoni masu sarrafa abinci, kamfanonin jiragen sama, kayan aiki, da sauransu masu iko na monopolistic sun yi haka. Wannan dalili na siyasa (ikon kasuwa), haɗe tare da Buƙatu da Sojoji, bayan Agusta ya haifar da ƙarin hauhawar farashin ta cikin ragowar 2021.
Tun daga shekara ta 2022 ƙarin sojoji kuma sun fara tantance yanayin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka:
Farawa Maris 2022, ƙara da kuma rufe kan direbobin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na 2021 shine takunkumin Amurka da EU kan kayayyaki na Rasha, waɗanda ke da mahimmanci musamman yayin da tattalin arzikin duniya ke ci gaba da ƙoƙarin sake buɗewa da dawo da warkar da sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na duniya.
Rasha tana ba da kashi 20% zuwa 30% na manyan kayayyaki na duniya da yawa - ciki har da mai, iskar gas da sarrafa man nukiliya a fannin makamashi. Amma kuma samfuran ƙarfe na masana'antu kamar nickel, palladium, aluminum da sauran albarkatun da ake buƙata don kera motoci, ƙarfe da sauran kayayyaki a cikin Amurka da EU. Haka kuma kayayyakin amfanin gona kamar kashi 30% na alkama na duniya; 20% na samar da masarar duniya da ake amfani da su wajen samar da abincin dabbobi; 75% na m kayan lambu mai kamar sunflowers; da kuma kashi 75% na takin potassium-don suna mafi mahimmanci.
Tun ma kafin takunkumin Amurka/EU akan waɗannan mahimman kayayyaki na Rasha ya fara shafar ainihin wadatar kayayyaki, masu hasashen kasuwan kasuwar hada-hadar kuɗi ta duniya sun fara haɓaka hauhawar farashin kayayyaki cikin tsammanin takunkumin zai fara aiki. Masu hasashe da sauri kamfanonin sufurin jiragen ruwa na duniya suka bi sahun masu hasashe waɗanda suka ɗage farashinsu kafin a sanya musu takunkumi. Kamfanonin inshorar jigilar kayayyaki sun haɗa su. A duk cikin sassan samar da kayayyaki, 'yan jari-hujja a sassan da ke da ikon yin amfani da karancin takunkumin da ke tafe sun fara sarrafa farashi cikin sa rai. Karancin jiki daga takunkumi daga baya ya fara yin tasiri a ƙarshen 2nd kwata 2022 yayin da yaki a Ukraine ya tsananta kuma aka aiwatar da takunkumi. Masu hasashe, masu jigilar kaya da masu inshorar daga baya sun ƙara ƙarin farashi zuwa tasirin takunkumi na gaba ɗaya.
Lokacin da Sakatariyar Baitulmali ta Amurka, Yellen, ta bayyana hasashenta a farkon shekarar 2022 cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai kasance na ɗan lokaci, babu shakka ta yi hakan ne bisa kuskuren zato cewa ko ta yaya za a warware matsalolin sarkar samar da kayayyaki na duniya da na cikin gida na ƙarshen bazara 2021 a cikin 2022, da farashin kamfanoni. gouging cewa lamuran sarkar samar da kayayyaki suma zasu ragu ko ta yaya. A fili ba ta yi la'akari da hasashen hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da take yi ba musamman tasirin yaki da takunkumi.
Shugaba Biden ya kira yanzu ƙarin haɓakar farashin a cikin bazara 2022 a matsayin 'Farashin farashin Putin'. Ana iya yin wannan da'awar a kan karancin wasu kayayyakin noma da ke rushewa kai tsaye a yankunan yakin Ukraine, amma ba za a iya sanya shi kan farashin makamashi na duniya wanda kusan duka daga cikin tattalin arzikin Rasha ba na Ukraine ba. Don haka girman hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya kasance saboda hauhawar farashin makamashi - wanda ya kai sama da rabin jimlar hauhawar farashin a matakin mabukaci - ya fi dacewa da takunkumin Biden kuma don haka shine 'Farashin farashin Biden' maimakon na Putin.
Ta hanyar 2nd kwata 2022 duk rundunonin da ke sama sun haifar da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki (watau matsakaicin buƙata, sarƙoƙin samar da kayayyaki na duniya & na cikin gida, hauhawar farashin kamfanoni, farashin mai, makamashi da kayayyaki) sun haɗu don samar da haɓaka, na yau da kullun, da ci gaba da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A tsawon lokacin da sabbin farashin ke samuwa, Maris-Mayu, farashin mabukaci (Index na CPI) yana tashi a tsayayyen ƙimar 8.5% yayin da farashin masu samarwa waɗanda a ƙarshe ke ciyarwa cikin farashin mabukaci ya tashi a madaidaicin ƙimar 10-11. % na watanni uku. Bugu da ƙari, matsa lamba akan farashin masu samarwa (wanda ke ciyarwa cikin farashin mabukaci) na iya haɓaka ko da 10-11% na matsakaicin farashin mai samarwa na yanzu. Misali, Fihirisar Farashin Mai samarwa da aka fitar na watan Mayu ya nuna nau'in 'Matsakaici' kayayyaki da farashin sabis suna tashi da sauri. Kayayyakin da aka sarrafa na tsaka-tsaki (misali karfe) suna karuwa da kashi 21.6% na shekara a cikin shekarar da ta gabata, yayin da matsakaicin kayan da ba a sarrafa su ba (misali iskar gas) ya tashi da kashi 39.7% na shekara-shekara.
Sarkar samar da kayayyaki da dakarun buƙatun na shekarar da ta gabata, Mayu 2021 zuwa Mayu 2022, da alama za su ci gaba da tuƙi a farashi mai kama da wannan lokacin rani na 2022 da kuma sauran sauran shekara. Ga alama dai babu iyaka, alal misali, yakin Ukraine da kuma takunkumin da aka kakabawa Rasha da ke ci gaba da tsananta. Haƙiƙa za a ci gaba da haɓaka farashin waɗannan kayayyaki da yaƙi da takunkumin ya shafa kamar yadda babban al'amari na tashin gwauron zabi na kamfanoni masu zaman kansu. Masu hasashen kuɗi na gaba na kayayyaki za su ci gaba da yin hasashe; Kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki suna ci gaba da sarrafa farashi don amfanin su; kuma masu inshorar suna ci gaba da haɓaka farashinsu akan jigilar kayayyaki da yawa a duniya.
Bugu da kari, sabbin runduna kuma suna bullowa a wannan bazarar ta 2022 wadanda za su kara ba da gudummawa ga hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin sauran 2022 da yuwuwa har ma fiye da haka.
Ɗaya daga cikin irin wannan sabon abu shine hauhawar farashin Ma'aikata don kasuwanci, wanda mutane da yawa za su yi ƙoƙari su wuce ga masu siye a wannan bazara da bayan haka. Farashin naúrar aiki (ULCs) ana ƙididdige su ta hanyar canjin aiki don kasuwanci da/ko albashi. Idan albashi ya karu, ULC ya tashi; Hakanan idan yawan aiki ya faɗi, ULCs yana tashi. Yayin da ake ganin albashi yana ƙaruwa kaɗan a cikin ƙididdiga, yawan aiki yana faɗuwa da sauri. Bayanai na baya-bayan nan kan yanayin samar da kayayyaki a Amurka sun nuna yadda yawan aiki ke durkushewa cikin sauri tun lokacin da aka fara tattara bayanai a shekara ta 1947. Wannan shi ne saboda saka hannun jarin kasuwanci ya tsaya cak yayin da ake fuskantar rashin tabbas na tattalin arziki game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma yiwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki. Gudunmawar hauhawar albashi ga haɓaka ULCs yana kan matsakaicin matsakaici, kamar yadda shugaban Fed Jerome Powell ya yarda. Matsalolin albashi galibi sun karkata zuwa babban ƙarshen ma'aikata inda ƙwararrun ƙwararrun ƙwararru ke 'ɗaukar aiki' don samun nasarar samun kuɗin shiga na 18% akan matsakaita; A halin da ake ciki, karancin albashin ma'aikatan sabis yana karuwa yayin da wasu da yawa sun ƙi komawa aiki a mafi ƙarancin albashin Amurka na $ 7.25 / hr wanda bai canza ba tun 2009. Kasuwancin sabis sun ba da ƙarin. Amma babban tsakiyar ma'aikatan Amurka ba sa samun samun albashi ko wani muhimmin matsayi. Don haka 'matsakaicin' albashin ma'aikata, matsakaicin matsakaici kamar yadda suke, ba sa lissafin haɓakar ULCs waɗanda kasuwancin za su yi ba da daɗewa ba, idan ba a rigaya ba, za su fara '' isarwa' ga masu amfani da farashi mafi girma na sauran 2022. Sakataren Baitulmali Yellen kanta a yanzu ta yarda cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai ci gaba da girma a cikin 2022 - babu shakka a wani bangare na nuna sabbin sojojin da ke kara matsin lamba.
Wani abin da ke tasowa na haɓaka mahimmanci ga ci gaba da haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin 2022 shine tasirin 'tsarin hauhawar farashin kaya' yanzu yana tasowa. Shugaban Fed, Jerome Powell, a cikin taron manema labarai na baya-bayan nan da ya biyo bayan sanarwar kwanan nan na Fed, Powell ya yi magana game da binciken jami'ar Michigan na kwanan nan wanda ke nuna tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yanzu kuma tabbas yana tasowa.
Yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke ci gaba da hauhawa, tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana nufin masu sayayya za su saya da wuri, ko ma abubuwan da ba su yi niyyar siya ba, don guje wa tashin farashin nan gaba. Wannan yana nufin wani ƙarfin Buƙatun da ke ƙara zuwa ga yanayin hauhawar farashin kaya, kamar yadda faɗuwar yawan aiki da ULC mafi girma ke wakiltar ƙarin ƙarfin Ba da gudummawar da ke ba da gudummawa ga hauhawar farashin nan gaba.
A takaice dai, yanzu shigar da mahallin abubuwan da ke haifarwa a cikin 2022 shine tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, faduwa yawan aiki yana haifar da ULCs da wucewar farashi ga masu siye, da hauhawar matsin lamba kan hauhawar kayayyaki saboda yakin Ukraine da takunkumi kan Rasha.
Lokacin da aka ƙara duk waɗannan abubuwan da suka kunno kai na 2022 zuwa ga sake buɗe tattalin arzikin 2021 da kuma samar da sarkar abubuwan da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki - da kuma ci gaba da hauhawar farashin kamfanoni - babban hoton da ya bayyana yana nuna dalilai masu yawa na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki - yawancinsu suna cin gajiyar juna; wasu na siyasa, wasu ba su da alaka da wadatar kasuwa ko buqata, kuma babu wani daga cikinsu da ake ganin yana daidaitawa sosai. A zahiri, hauhawar farashin kamfanoni, magudin kasuwannin kayayyaki ta hanyar masu hasashe, yakin Ukraine, da takunkumi kan Rasha duk suna wakiltar gudummawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ka iya haɓaka cikin watanni shida masu zuwa.
Mai yiwuwa Stagflation ya riga ya iso
Stagflation gabaɗaya ana bayyana shi azaman hauhawar farashi a cikin ci gaban tattalin arziƙin gaske. Wannan ya rigaya ya same mu a matakin farko: GDP na Amurka na 1st kwata na 2022 ya sami raguwar -1.5% yayin da babban bankin 'inuwa' GDP na babban bankin Atlanta ya kiyasta ci gaban GDP (0.0%) na Afrilu-June 2 na yanzu.nd kwata! Idan hasashen Atlanta Fed ya tabbatar da daidaito, wannan shine tabarbarewar mafi kyau. Kuma idan 2nd kwata a zahiri kwangila, to yana wakiltar wani lokaci mai zurfi tukuna na Stagflation.
Kamar yadda masanan tattalin arziki da kafofin watsa labarai na yau da kullun suka yi ta muhawara na tsawon watanni ko hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na yau da kullun ko na ɗan lokaci ne, masana iri ɗaya a yanzu suna muhawara ko tashin hankali zai faru nan ba da jimawa ba lokacin da a zahiri ya riga ya iso. (duba Larry Summers' latest pontification ga harkokin kasuwanci kafofin watsa labarai inda ya yi kashedin na stagflation a kusa da kusurwa lokacin da ya riga ya juya shi).
Mataki na gaba na stagflation mai zuwa a ƙarshen 2022 da farkon 2023 zai nuna raguwar tattalin arziƙin gaske-watau koma bayan tattalin arziki. GDP ba zai tsaya kawai ba tare da haɓaka ba, amma ya ragu. Tabbas, koma bayan tattalin arziki ya rigaya ya kusa kusa idan za mu yarda da Atlanta Fed's 2nd Hasashen GDP na kwata-kwata da alamomin tattalin arziki na farko a yanzu suna bayyana. Stagflation na iya kasancewa a nan, kamar yadda 1st kwata-kwata GDP na Amurka -1.5% na kwangila yana biye da wani ƙanƙancewa - ba girma ba kawai - a cikin 2 na yanzu.nd kwata. Kashi biyu a jere na naƙuda suna bayyana abin da ake kira ' koma bayan tattalin arziki'. Ainihin ma'anar koma bayan tattalin arziki an bar shi ga Ofishin Binciken Tattalin Arziki na Ƙasa, NBER, masana tattalin arziki su kira. Kullum suna jira watanni bayan gaskiya don yin kiransu. Amma 'koma bayan fasaha' kusan koyaushe yana haifar da sanarwar NBER daga baya na ainihin koma bayan tattalin arziki. Kuma tattalin arzikin Amurka a fili yana kan hanyar koma bayan fasaha a kalla.
Maganganun hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Biden
Matsalolin Biden daban-daban har zuwa yau sune ƙarin abubuwan da suka shafi hulɗar jama'a da aka tsara don nuna cewa ana yin wani abu maimakon ayyukan da ke magance matsalar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka kai tsaye.
Matsalolin da Biden ya gabatar sun hada da samun kamfanonin mai na Amurka da sauran masu samar da mai a duniya don kara yawan abin da suke hakowa; ko ta yaya za su gamsar da ƙasashen da suka amince da takunkumin da Amurka ta kakaba wa Rasha don aiwatar da wani 'tafiya' kan farashin mai a duniya; rage haraji kan shigo da kayayyaki daga China zuwa Amurka; daidaita farashin samar da makamashi ga masu amfani da Amurka ta hanyar rage farashin sauran kayan masarufi; haɓaka gasa a tsakanin kamfanoni na Amurka guda ɗaya ta hanyar ba da tallafin sabbin masu fafatawa don shiga masana'antar su; gabatar da dakatarwar harajin iskar gas na tarayya.
Duk da zagin da Biden ya yi kan kamfanonin mai, da kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki, da sauran masu siyar da farashi, duk magana ce kuma babu wani mataki. Duk shawarwarin nasa ba su yi aiki ba har yau. Sun kasance ko dai kawai ra'ayoyin da aka taso ba tare da ainihin shawarwarin zartarwa ko na majalisa ba. Ko kuma tuni Majalisa ta yi watsi da su. Ko, ko da an aiwatar da shi, za a 'wasa' kuma kamfanoni masu ƙarancin tasiri akan farashin mabukaci. Ko kuma ba za ta samar da isasshen ƙarin albarkatun mai, iskar gas da makamashi na duniya don rage hauhawar farashin makamashi da yawa.
Dabarar Biden ita ce 'magana zance' ba tare da tafiya ba, kamar yadda ake cewa.
Hanya guda daya tilo da ainihin mafita da gwamnatin ta amince da shi cikin nutsuwa, amma ba ta yarda a bainar jama'a ba, ita ce ta sa Fed ta haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki ta hanyar rikodin rikodi na saurin hauhawar riba a wannan lokacin rani na 2022 yanzu yana ci gaba. Kuma kamar yadda suke cewa, 'wannan jirgin ya bar tashar'. An gama yarjejeniya. 'Maganin' Biden shine a sami Fed ya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Shiga Tarayyar Tarayya
Fed kanta ta riga ta yanke shawarar koma bayan tattalin arziki! Haka kuma, samfuri ne na manufofin da aka yi amfani da shi a baya.
Asalin koma bayan tattalin arziki mai zuwa ya bayyana sosai kamar koma bayan tattalin arziki na 1981-82. A wancan lokacin Fed ya kuma haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki ta hanyar yin tsaurin ra'ayi tare da manufar 'lalacewar buƙata' kamar yadda ake kira. Ma’ana, a lokacin kamar yanzu, dabarar ita ce a rika biyan gidaje da ma’aikata albashi ta hanyar lalata kudaden da ake samu daga albashi ta hanyar kora daga aiki, saboda abin da ya kasance a wancan lokacin samar da kayayyaki ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ke da nasaba da hauhawar iskar man fetur a duniya da kungiyar OPEC da matsakaita suka yi. masu samar da man gabas.
A maki 75 farashin Fed ya riga ya hauhawa a saurin da ba a gani ba tun 1994. Duk da haka, kamar yadda wannan marubucin ya yi jayayya, tattalin arzikin duniya ya fi rauni da haɗin kai a yau fiye da yadda yake a cikin 981-82 lokacin da Fed ya haɓaka rates zuwa 1980% da ƙari. Tattalin arzikin jari-hujja na duniya a yau ba zai ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar ko da kashi ɗaya bisa uku na wannan kashi 81% ba kafin yin kwangila sosai.
Yana da mahimmanci fiye da a'a cewa Fed zai ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar riba a matakan 75 lokacin da ya hadu a gaba a watan Yuli, kuma mai yiwuwa iri ɗaya a cikin taron na gaba. A 4% don ƙimar kuɗin tarayya na ma'auni (ba a 1.75%) lalacewar tattalin arziki za ta fashe ba. Ba zai kai kashi daya bisa uku na matakin 1982 ba, kashi 5%.
Me yasa tattalin arzikin zai zamewa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki da kyau kafin wannan marubucin ya tattauna matakin 5% a cikin 2017 a cikin littafin, 'Masu Banki na Tsakiya a Ƙarshen Igiyoyinsu: Manufofin Kuɗi da Tashin hankali mai Zuwa', Clarity Press.
A ci gaba da wannan makala, dalilin da ya sa ainihin tattalin arzikin Amurka ke da rauni a yau an yi magana game da shi gami da mafi yawan shaidun da ke nuna raunin tattalin arzikin Amurka na gaske. Hakanan ana magana shine dalilin da yasa adadin kuɗin tarayya na Fed ya karu zuwa 4% ko sama da haka zai haifar da koma bayan tattalin arzikin Amurka nan ba da jimawa ba, kuma, ba ko kaɗan, me yasa ƙimar Fed na wannan girman zai iya haifar da mummunan tasiri akan kasuwannin kadari na kuɗi. haifar da matsananciyar rashin ruwa da ma tashe-tashen hankula a cikin tsarin hada-hadar kudi na jari hujja na duniya.
Idan kwangilar kadari na kuɗi ya faru tare da raguwa na tattalin arziki na gaske, to, koma bayan tattalin arziki na 2022 zai kusan zurfafa a cikin 2023. Kuma a cikin wannan yanayin rikicin tattalin arziki zai bayyana kamar 2008-10 da 1981-82. Ko watakila hadewar koma bayan tattalin arziki guda biyu zuwa daya.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
Bada Tallafi