Inkinga yezempi e-Iraq ayibangelwa ukuhoxa kukaMongameli uBarack Obama “ngaphambi kwesikhathi” noma ukungaboni ngaso linye yinhlangano emelene nempi. Kunalokho, kuwumphumela oqondile wokuthi i-US ishiya amaSunni ase-Iraq embusweni wehlelo, ocindezelayo wamaShiite e-Baghdad oxhaswe ngemali futhi ehlonywe yi-US. Umbuso waseBaghdad owakhiwa uhulumeni kaBush no-Obama ungumngane we-Iran futhi uyisitha esikhulu samaSunni phambilini ayeyisigaba esikhethekile ngaphansi kukaSaddam Hussein. Akuyona ingozi ukuthi amaShiites azoziphindiselela kumaSunni. Okuwukuphela kombuzo ukuthi kungani sagcina inkohliso ye-“pluralism” kanye “nentando yeningi” kuyilapho ukuhlanjululwa kobuhlanga kwabantu baseSunni kuqhubeka sibhekile.
Ukuncishwa amalungelo kwamaSunni kwaholela ekuhlaselweni okugcwele kwezempi kwe-ISIS kanye nezingxenye zeqembu langaphambili le-Baath Party. I-ISIS ayikwazi ukumiswa amaShiites, ngisho nangamandla omoya ase-US, futhi ngeke amiswe ngokuxoxisana nepolitiki yaseBaghdad kanye nezinkulumo mayelana "nokufakwa." Ukunikezwa kuphela kokuzimela okubonakalayo kumaSunni, okufana nokuzimela kwe-Iraqi Kurdistan, okuzohlinzeka ngokumeleleka, ukuphepha, nokwabelana kwamandla kwaleyo sidingo samaSunni esizweni esisha somfelandawonye.
I-ISIS ikhule isuka emajele axhaswe yi-US eSifundazweni sase-Anbar, njengoba nje owandulelayo, i-Al Qaeda, yavela endaweni efanayo ewugwadule ngaphambili. Kunomehluko omkhulu phakathi kwamaSunni afuna indima yokuzimela e-Iraq entsha kanye nalabo abafisa uBukhosi lapho yonke imingcele inyamalala khona. Labo abafuna ukulondoloza izwe lezwe lase-Iraqi kumele banake lo mehluko oyisisekelo wemibono phakathi kwamaSunni futhi benze izivumelwano ezinkulu ngokushesha okukhulu. Ngaphandle kwalokho ikusasa lingenye yempi yombango yamahlelo lapho abantu baseMelika bengenasithakazelo kuyo.
Ukuhlasela kwe-ISIS nakho kwenziwa ukuthi iSyria ibe isizinda esikhulu sangemuva sokuvukela umbuso e-Iraq. Leso sizinda esingemuva senziwe senzeka iminyaka eminingi yokumelana kwamaSunni nombuso wama-Alawite amancane eDamaseku. Ngenkathi ibiza ukuphela kobushiqela buka-Assad, i-US ayizange izimisele ukubeka engcupheni yokusiza ekuketulweni kwayo. Ngenxa yalokho, i-ISIS ithole amandla eSyria empini ye-proxy yeqembu nezinye izakhi eziphikisana ne-Assad ezisekelwa iNtshonalanga. Ukushabalala kuka-Assad kungase kuhlukanise izikhundla zokuvukela umbuso phakathi kwalabo abafuna ushintsho embusweni waseSyria nalabo abafisa ukuphoqelela iCaliphate ngaphandle kwemingcele, kucishwe iSyria ne-Iraq kulolu hlelo.
Kusetshenziswe ukuphawula okuningi kakhulu ekusongeleni okunodlame okubangelwe i-ISIS ngokuzumayo futhi akukho noyedwa embuzweni wokuthi ingabhekana kanjani ne-ISIS ebuthakathakeni bayo bezepolitiki: ukukhuphuka kwayo ezimangalweni zokuthi iyisikhungo esisha sawo wonke umhlaba wamaSulumane. Leso simangalo sinqatshwa izigidi zamaSunni ezifundazweni eziningi, futhi kuzoholela ekwehlukeni kwangaphakathi, okuzokwenza buthaka i-ISIS ngaphakathi.
Isizathu esenza ukuthi i-ISIS ifune ukuthi abaseMelika nabaseNtshonalanga baqhume ngamabhomu futhi bahlasele indawo yabo yingoba bayazi ukuthi ubudlova bangaphandle buyindlela eqinisekile yokuhlanganisa wonke amaSunni.
Ngakho-ke yini u-Obama okufanele acelwe ukuba ayicabangele?
Okokuqala, funa ukugunyazwa kweCongressional kanye nenkulumompikiswano yenqubomgomo ebanzi kakhulu. Ungahambi wedwa.
Okwesibili, sho ngokuphindaphindiwe ukuthi asikho isisombululo sezempi.
Okwesithathu, qonda ukuthi ukuhlasela kwe-drone kuzobonakala kakhulu kunalokho obekukhona ezifundeni zezizwe ezingafinyeleleki zase-Afghanistan, lapho bekunengxabano enkulu khona. Khawulela ububanzi nenjongo yanoma yikuphi ukuhlasela kwasemoyeni, futhi wamukele uhlelo lwezikhathi olufushane oluhambisana Nokulungiswa Kwamandla Empi.
Okwesine, noma yimaphi “amabhuzu aphansi” kufanele abe amaSunni futhi asekelwe kuwo wonke umhlaba wama-Arab. Uma leyo mfelandawonye ingazimisele, inqubomgomo yase-US izokwehla.
Okwesihlanu, phikisana “nomthambeka oshelelayo” ngokubheka ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo kwama-American Special Forces, amaqembu ezobunhloli nabeluleki.
Okwesithupha, ukusebenzisa umthetho we-US Leahy ovimbela noma yiluphi usizo kumayunithi ezempi angaphandle abephula izimiso zamalungelo abantu. Lokho kusho ukuhlanzwa okugcwele kwamaShiite Special Forces, ibutho namaphoyisa.
Okwesikhombisa, ukwenqaba ukusekela umbuso waseBaghdad ngaphandle uma izinqubomgomo zawo zamahlelo ziqedwa ngokuphelele.
Okwesishiyagalombili, ukwenza idiplomacy enolaka eNhlanganweni Yezizwe, ikakhulukazi okubandakanya ukuxhumana ne-Iran neRussia.
Ngaphezu kwakho konke, khumbula ukuthi inhloso yase-US e-Iraq "ukuphazamisa, ukululaza nokudiliza" i-Al Qaeda, futhi ngemva kokubulala izinkulungwane zabantu, inethiwekhi ayikho nje kuphela kodwa isakaze kude eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Afrika. Yilokho okwenzekayo lapho izimbangela eziyisisekelo zichithwa sengathi azikho.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela