Izinsongo zokukhuluma ezinekhodi ze-tit-for-tat kungazwakala kumnandi futhi u-John le Carré-esque uma bengebona bangempela. NgoSepthemba 2022, uMongameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin ucaphune i-U.S"esandulela” ekusebenziseni izikhali zenuzi eJapan futhi yathi iRussia izoba"sebenzisa zonke izindlela” ezitholakalayo ukuze"zivikele” empini yayo ne-Ukraine. Cishe ngemva kwamasonto amabili, uMongameli uJoe Biden wathi ku-CNN i-Pentagon ayidingi ukuqondiswa ukuze ilungiselele ukulwa nezikhali zenuzi futhi waxwayisa ngokuthi ngisho nempi yenuzi eyenzeka ngengozi ingase"ukuphela e-Armagedoni.” Amasosha aseMelika nawo athatha isinyathelo esingajwayelekile, ngo-Okthoba, sokudalula obala izindawo zemikhumbi-ngwenya yawo yesigaba sase-Ohio oLwandle lwase-Arabia kanye ne-Atlantic - phakathi kweRussia. Ngamunye angadedela 192 imicibisholo yenuzi ngomzuzu owodwa.
I-Pentagon kanye ne-Kremlin egiyayo ama-sabers amadala anesihloko senuzi ayesabeka ngokwanele; lawa mandla womabili aphethe okungaphezu kwalokho 90I-% yazo zonke izikhali zenuzi phakathi kwezikhali zabo ezimbili. Kepha isigaba esisha salokhu kuqhudelana kwekota yekhulu leminyaka kuhlanganisa ukuhlolwa kwemicibisholo yaseRussia ngo-Ephreli nango-Okthoba. 2022, kanye nokugasela okubikiwe komkhumbi-ngwenya okwaziyo ukwenza inyukliya I-USS Rhode Island eMedithera ngoNovemba.
Angakanani amathuba okusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi engxabanweni yaseRussia-Ukraine? UMatthew Bunn, umhlaziyi waseHarvard, ukubeka 10% kuya ku- 20%, ngokusekelwe esitatimendeni sikaPutin esidlangalaleni kanye nokwanda kokuphelelwa ithemba ngemva kwezihibe zezempi zaseRussia. Imvamisa, lokho kungase kube izingqinamba eziphephile, kodwa esimweni sezikhali ezinamandla kakhulu kunamabhomu abeka iHiroshima neNagasaki. 77 eminyakeni edlule futhi kwabulala amashumi ezinkulungwane zabantu ngokuphazima kokukhanya, lawo mathuba awacishe abe mancane ngokwanele.
Esinye sezimo okungenzeka kuxoxwe ngaso iRussia idubula impi ebizwa nge-tactical nuclear warhead e-Ukraine. Noma iyiphi impendulo yezempi yase-US noma ye-NATO, ngisho nangaphandle kwama-nukes, ingaba sengozini yokukhuphuka ibe ingxabano ebanzi yenuzi. A 2019 ukulingiswa ngabacwaningi eNyuvesi yasePrinceton Uhlelo lweSayensi kanye Nokuphepha Komhlaba kubonise ukuthi i-nuke eyodwa yeqhinga ingabangela kanjani ukushintshaniswa kwezikhali zenuzi ezibulalayo. 34 izigidi zabantu ngamahora amahlanu nje kuphela.
Ngisho nalesi silulumagama se"izikhali zamaqhinga” kanye nezikhali zenuzi"ukushintshana” kunciphisa izingozi zangempela zokuhlasela kwezikhali zenuzi zibe isikali sokulwa ebhodini le-Risk game. Iqiniso liwukuthi impilo ngemva kwanoma iyiphi impi yenuzi ingaba yimbi kakhulu kubo bonke abasindile, ngisho nakulabo bethu abahlala kude kakhulu nama-flashpoints. Ngo-August 2022 iphepha ku Ukudla Kwemvelo ithole ukuthi impi yenuzi egcwele phakathi kwe-United States neRussia izosibekela iplanethi 150 amathani ayizigidi zentshe, okwenza ukukhiqizwa kokudla kucishe kungenzeki futhi kubhubhise iningi lesintu. Ukukhishwa cishe 50 amathani ayizigidi ze-soot emkhathini ongaphezulu ovela emlilweni kulandela impi yenuzi ecatshangwayo yesifunda phakathi kwe-India nePakistan izoqeda izitshalo nezinhlanzi emhlabeni jikelele, kushiye okungaphezu kwalokho. 2 abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane bafa phakathi neminyaka emibili. Lezi zimo ezimbi azihlanganisi ngisho nokufa nokuhlupheka ngenxa yezingozi ezifana nokuwa kwemisebe nokuchayeka elangeni elishisayo ngemva kokuba ungqimba lwe-ozone luphihlizwe ukuqhuma kwe-athomu. Njengoba umbhali nesishoshovu uJonathan Schell ekubeka:"Ukuzalwa kwezikhali zenuzi ku 1945 yavula indlela ebanzi, engavimbekisiwe eya ekupheleni kwezwe.”
Ingozi ecacile nekhona
Izishoshovu zokuthula zase-US zifuna i-United States ibambe iqhaza elibonakalayo ekunciphiseni impi ye-Russia-Ukraine, uma kubhekwa usongo lwenuzi kanye nempi enkulu yabantu. Amaqhinga asukela ekunqumeni ukumiswa kwezikhali kuya ekuletheni izinhlangothi zombili etafuleni lezingxoxo ukuze kubhekwane nezikhalazo, okuhlanganisa izindlela iMelika ekhuthaze ngayo ukwanda kwe-NATO kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi.
Uma umhlaba ungabuyisela emuva kulolu nqenqemeni, mhlawumbe umugqa wesiliva kulokhu okubhubhisayo, 21st-impi yekhulu leminyaka ingase ibe ukuphuthuma okusha ngemuva komsebenzi wokunciphisa izikhali zenuzi. Umphakathi ukhunjuzwe ngezinqolobane ezinkulu zase-US naseRussia ezingaphezu kuka 4,000 izikhali zenuzi ngalinye, okuyinani eliphelele elingaphezu 3,000 zisatshalaliswa ngenkuthalo. Ukuze sigweme ukuzithola silapha futhi, sidinga ukukhishwa kwezikhali zenuzi.
Inqobo nje uma kunezikhali zenuzi, - njengesibhamu sikaChekhov - zilinde ukuphuma.
Siyazi ukuthi kungenzeka ukuhambisa umhlaba ekuncisheni izikhali ngoba sike sakwenza ngaphambili. Ngesikhathi seMpi Yomshoshaphansi, inhlangano enkulu kakhulu — eyakhiwe ngabasekeli kanye nezishoshovu zeGreenpeace, ososayensi nezindela nabapristi bamaKatolika, abasekeli beBlack Power namaPan-Africanists, ama-Pacific Islanders kanye nezizwe zoMdabu waseMelika, abameli namahippie, nabanye abaningi — amagagasi abheke ekuncishisweni kwezikhali. Ngochungechunge lwezivumelwano zokulawula izikhali, i-Russia ne-United States zehlise izindawo zazo zezikhali zenuzi cishe 87% kusuka esiqongweni sokuhlangana 63,000 ama-warheads phakathi1980s.
Njengoba ukunaka komphakathi kwasuka ezikhalini zenuzi, abakhiqizi bezikhali balwela ukugcina nokwandisa isabelo sabo semakethe emhlabeni oshintshayo. U-Lockheed Martin, u-Boeing, uRaytheon, uGeneral Dynamics kanye noNorthrop Grumman banxenxa futhi bajikijela iminikelo yomkhankaso ukuze baqhubekisele phambili ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali kanye nezimakethe ezivulekile zezikhali zabo, okuhlanganisa ukunwetshwa kwe-NATO emazweni ayengamaSoviet. Ngu 2009, i-United States ibichitha amaRandi29 izigidigidi ekunakekeleni, ekusebenzeni nasekuthuthukisweni kwezikhali zenuzi. Manje, okuwukuphela kwesivumelwano sokulawula izingalo esisele phakathi kwe-United States neRussia siphelelwa yisikhathi 2026, futhi iRussia yamisa isikhashana ezinkulumweni ezazihlelelwe ngo-November 2022. I-United States itshala imali efika ku-$1.5 isigidintathu ngokulandelayo 30 iminyaka yokuvuselela nokwenza izikhali zenuzi zibe zesimanjemanje kanye nezinhlelo zazo zokulethwa komoya, ulwandle nomhlaba. Asinazo izinombolo ezinzima zaseRussia, kodwa zisebenzisa izigidigidi futhi.
Izikhathi ezinzima zidinga umbono onesibindi. Ngeke siphumule zingakaqedwa izikhali. Isidingo sethu asikwazi ukuqedwa.
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