Umthombo: Richardfalk.com

Selokhu izinto zaqala ukubheda kabi eSyria ngemuva kokuvukela umbuso okwabangelwa yi-Arab Spring ka-2011, lesi simo siguqule inkungu yempi evamile yaba yibhokisi elimnyama elingangeneki. Akekho noyedwa kubadlali bepolitiki abangenelelayo okubandakanya iTurkey, i-United States, i-Iran, iRussia, i-Israel, i-UAE, neSaudi Arabia abalwe ngendlela efanele, kanjalo namaqembu ahlukene angewona awezwe ahlotshaniswa ne-al Qaeda kanye ne-ISIS kamuva, kanye nezinhlobonhlobo ze Izihlubuki zaseSiriya ezimelene neDamaseku. Akukho ukungqubuzana kwamazwe ngamazwe okuke kwaba okusobala, okunezici eziningi, futhi okuhlaselwe umdlalo wokungqubuzana, ngisho namabutho ezombusazwe kazwelonke, wesifunda, kanye namazwe omhlaba aziphikisayo. Okushiwoyo nalokho okwenziwayo kwehluka kakhulu kangangokuthi yonke imizamo yokuqonda incike futhi idinga ukubuyekezwa njalo. Ngaphandle kwemizamo eqotho yokuhumusha kanye nokulinganisa okwenzekayo nokuthi kungani, kunezinhlobonhlobo zezinhlelo ezikhohlisayo lapho amaqiniso, izinhloso, nezisusa zifakwa ngaphansi kokuqina kokuqina kwezinhloso zezepolitiki ezibanzi ezingavunywanga, futhi zimboze amaqiniso ezepolitiki. lokhu kusebenza kwezempi yaseTurkey emafini amnyama okwakhiwa. Kungenxa yokuqwashisa lobu bunzima lapho ngenza lo mzamo wokuphawula ngalesi siqephu sakamuva ngokulandelana okudabukisayo kwezehlakalo zaseSyria ezaqala eminyakeni engaphezu kweyisishiyagalombili eyedlule ngemibhikisho yabantu abavamile eDeraa ephikisana nokuhlukunyezwa kwamalungelo abantu okunzima okwenziwe nguhulumeni waseDamaseku, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kwezinye izingxenye zezwe okubangele ukufuduka kwabantu bangaphakathi kanye nezinkinga zokufuduka. Ukucindezela kukahulumeni kulo mbukiso wokuphikisa kwakunonya, futhi ngokushesha kwalandela ukuvukela okugcwele kwezikhali.

Izibalo ezimbili ezingalungile eziyisisekelo zabadlali abangewona ama-Syria, okwakuphindaphindwa kwamaphutha esikhathi esidlule yiwo wonke la mabutho ayephikisana, ngokuqinisekile kube nomthelela ekubhujisweni kweSiriya, ukuhlupheka okukhulu kwabantu bayo, ukufa nokulimala kwamakhulu ezinkulungwane, kanye nokuxoshwa kwezigidi. , ukudala isethi yezimo ezisenawo amathemba amancane okukhiqiza isiphetho esanelisayo. Ukungalungi kokuqala, okwabiwe ikakhulukazi yi-Ankara kanye neWashington, ukuthi ukungenelela kwezempi kunganciphisa ngokushesha ibhalansi, kukhiqize isikhathi eside. uguquko olufiswayo lombuso eDamaseku olufunwa amashumi eminyaka yi-US kanye ne-Israel. Iphutha lesibili laliwukucabanga ukuthi iSyria yayifana neLibya, okungukuthi, uhulumeni wobushiqela ongenakho ukwesekwa kwezombusazwe kubantu bakhona, futhi ngaleyo ndlela usengozini yokuketulwa kalula udlame lwabashokobezi, ikakhulukazi uma usekelwa isikhuthazo sangaphandle senxusa nosizo lwezempi. Lezi zibalo ezingalungile zishaye indiva ikhono le-Iran neRussia lokuqeda ukungenelela okulwa no-Assad futhi labukela phansi kakhulu ukwesekwa kwasekhaya okujatshulelwa uhulumeni waseDamaseku kanye nekhono nokusebenza kahle kwenkundla yempi yamasosha aseSyria, okudlula kude lokho obekukhona kuhulumeni. eLibya kaQaddafi.

Eminyakeni yezinxushunxushu, umshikashika wokulawula umbuso waseSyria waba matasatasa nezinye izinto ezithinta ezombusazwe, ikakhulukazi i-US yahola umzabalazo wokulwa ne-ISIS kanye nemizamo yamaKurdish yokuphishekela izinhloso zabo zokuzibusa, uma kubhekwa isimo sezombangazwe eSyria, ukujabulela kwayo ukwesekwa kweMelika, kanye nomthelela owenziwe yimpumelelo yamaKurds ase-Iraqi ekuzuzeni i-de facto statehood enyakatho ye-Iraq. Uhlelo lwamaKurd olwembulekayo, ngokubambisana namasosha ase-US okuthiwa akhona eSyria ukulwa ne-ISIS neDamaseku, bekuwukusiza amaKurds aseSyria ukuthi afeze izinhloso zawo ngaphansi kobuholi be-YPG (Kurdish Peoples Protection Group), okuyinto iningi labahlaziyi abangochwepheshe abavumelana ngayo ukuthi. ixhumene kakhulu ne-PKK (Peoples Workers Party), ebibambe iqhaza emzabalazweni wezikhali ngokumelene neTurkey iminyaka engaphezu kwengama-30 emzabalazweni oqhubekayo osekudle impilo yabantu abangaphezu kuka-40,000. Inhloso ye-PKK bekuwukudala i-Kurdistan ezimele noma ukusungula ibhizinisi elizimele elibuswa ngamaKurd ngaphakathi kwemingcele ekhona yaseTurkey, ebonakala ifana nomgomo we-YPG. Njengoba inkimbinkimbi, kuphikiswana ngayo, futhi ifaneleka njengalesi sangemuva, ingaphambili limurkier nakakhulu.

Kunezici eziningana ezingaphandle okudingeka zicatshangelwe. Okokuqala, i-diplomacy kaTrump, njengenjwayelo, ithumele ngokunganaki isignali exube kakhulu kubo bonke abathintekayo, okuhambisana nokuhlambalaza okuvuthayo kanye nokuhlambalaza okungenamsebenzi okuqondiswe ku-Kurdish kanye nezifiso. E-Ankara, ukuphuma kungazelelwe kwamasosha aseMelika kwabonakala kuhloswe ngokucacile futhi kuhunyushwa ngokunengqondo njengokukhanya okuluhlaza ukuze kwakhiwe indawo ephephile ngasohlangothini lwaseSyria emngceleni waseTurkey ngokuqeda ubukhona be-YPG endaweni engamakhilomitha angama-20 enyakatho-mpumalanga yeSyria. Isibonakaliso esinjalo ngokushesha salandelwa izinsongo ezinzima, ezingekho emthethweni, futhi ngokuphelele ezikhishwe ngokungalindelekile nguTrump exwayisa ngemiphumela emibi uma yehluleka ukulandela imiyalo evela eWhite House. Ukuguqulwa okunjalo kwezombusazwe kwaphinde kwaqiniswa ngokufakwa kwezijeziso (ukwenyusa amanani entengo yensimbi yaseTurkey ngo-50% kanye nokuqandisa impahla yezikhulu ezimbalwa zaseTurkey) ezingaqondakali. Lezi zijeziso zingahunyushwa njengokujezisa noma njengesenzo nje esiklanyelwe ukujabulisa abagxeki baseRiphabhulikhi kuCongress yaseMelika abazwakalise ukugxeka okuqinile, besola uTrump ngokushiya i-YPG, muva nje ongumlingani obalulekile empini yokuqala yaseMelika yokulwa nobushokobezi be-ISIS. Ngesikhathi sobumongameli bakhe, ukuchezuka okuningi kwenqubomgomo kaTrump yezangaphandle kubonakala kunqunywa kakhulu izibalo ezihlobene nepolitiki yasekhaya yaseMelika kunokubhekwa kabusha kokuthi kwenziwa kanjani izinqubomgomo zamazwe ngamazwe ngendlela ephumelelayo.

KumaKurds aseSyria ahambisana ne-YPG, kwaba ukuphela kwephupho lokuzinqumela, esikhundleni salokho ithemba elibi lenye futhi inhlekelele yezempi neyobuntu. Ngokusobala akuwona wonke amaKurds abelane ngale ncazelo njengoba izinkulungwane eziningi zabaleka zawela umngcele zifuna indawo engcwele eTurkey, futhi zengeza ababaleki abengeziwe ezigidini ezingu-3.5-4 asebevele bekhona. Njengalo lonke ikhulunyaka labo lokukhungatheka nomzabalazo inhlangano yesizwe yamaKurd yehlulekile ukwethula isisekelo esibumbene mayelana nezindlela neziphetho, futhi ayinabo ubuholi obubonakalayo obunamandla obungaba nomthelela emibonweni yomhlaba.

Iqoqo lesibili lezici libandakanya ukubhekelela umkhankaso oshubile wamazwe omhlaba owenziwa ngokumelene nohulumeni waseTurkey njengoba uholwa ngu-Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, owabanjwa yizitha zangaphandle zikamongameli waseTurkey kanye ne-AKP ebusayo (i-Justice and Development Party) ukuphawula Ukuhlasela kweTurkey 'njengokuhlanzwa kohlanga' ngisho 'nokubulawa kohlanga.' Kwaphinde kwaphikiswana ngokuthi iTurkey isiphenduke ihlazo ku-NATO kangangokuthi kufanele ixoshwe. I-American diplomacy nayo yahlaselwa kakhulu ngenxa yokulahlwa ngokungenangqondo kwamaKurds ngokushesha nje lapho iWashington ikholelwa ukuthi usizo lwabo alusadingeki. Akukhona ukuthi le mibono emelene ne-Turkish yonke ayilungile, kodwa ngokuqinisekile ibisetshenziselwa izinjongo ezibanzi ezingahlobene nokuhlasela kwemingcele, futhi ngenxa yalokho yahlanekezelwa cishe ngendlela engenakubonwa.

Lo mkhankaso omelene neTurkey uye waqhutshwa umfelandawonye oxekethile wamabutho ezombusazwe, okuhlanganisa amaKurds aphesheya kwezilwandle, ama-Kemalists aqinile, nabalandeli abangaphenduki benhlangano ye-Fetullah Gülen eyabamba eTurkey ukuzama ukuketula umbuso ngo-2016. Ngaleso sikhathi lokho okwaseYurophu naseNyakatho Ukusabela kweMelika kokunganaki ukuthi uhulumeni wentando yeningi okhethiwe waseTurkey usindile yini kwabonwa abaningi kuhulumeni waseTurkey nasemphakathini njengentuthuko esabekayo. Uma uthatha inkinga yokufunda okushicilelwe kumawebhusayithi aphikisayo asekela u-Israyeli, amaSiyoni ashisekayo afana ne-Middle East Forum, imoto yemibono ye-Zionist extremist Daniel Pipes, noma i-Gatestone Institute ehlotshaniswa nezibalo ezilungile njengo-Alan Dershowitz noJohn. I-Bolton uzobhekana nemibono engapheli eklanyelwe ukunikeza iTurkey igunya ngazo zonke izindlela. Kunombhalo omningi ongcwele kulawa mawebhusayithi mayelana nokuhlukunyezwa kwamalungelo abantu eTurkey, okuyinto efaneleke kakhulu, kodwa kuhambisana nokuthula okuvala izindlebe mayelana nokuhlukunyezwa okubi kakhulu eGibhithe naseSaudi Arabia. Akudingi i-PhD ukuthi iqonde ukuthi okusengcupheni yi-Middle East hegemony ukuze i-United States yenziwe ngokubambisana eduze ne-Israel ne-Saudi Arabia. Uma kubhekwa le ajenda evamile, akumangazi ukuthi kwenzeke izincazelo ezingalingani nezidukisayo ze-Operation Peace Spring, igama lekhodi elinikezwe ukusebenza kwamasosha aseTurkey, okubusa abezindaba.

Ngokumangazayo, i-New York Times, ishicilele ucezu lwemibono kaNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseTurkey, u-Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu ngo-Okthoba 11, olubeka ngamagama acacile nazwakalayo ububanzi bomsebenzi wezempi kanye nezinjongo zaseTurkey zizonke. Okwakumaphakathi, futhi kwanganakwa nhlobo isigubhu esinonya sokusakazwa kwezindaba ezimelene neTurkey, kwakuwukuqinisekisa ukuthi iTurkey yayifuna 'indawo ephephile' emingceleni yayo ngokususa i-YPG, futhi ingaqali ukuhlasela amaKurds. U-Çavuşoğlu uthe inhloso yaseTurkey inqunyelwe ukususa umugqa wamamayela angama-20 we-YPG ne-ISIS, kanye nokuvumela labo babaleki baseSyria eTurkey ababefisa ukubuyela eSyria ukuze bahlale kulo mhlaba osuliwe. Inhloso yesibili kwakuwukubuyisela ubukhosi baseSyria endaweni yayo, okwakusho ukwenqaba njengento engenakwenzeka iphrojekthi yokwakha isifunda saseRojava enyakatho-mpumalanga yeSyria. U-Çavuşoğlu usichithile kufanele isimangalo senkulumo-ze enonya sokuthi amabutho aseTurkey noma abazwelana nabo babekhulula ekuboshweni kwamakhulukhulu ezilwi ze-ISIS. Maqondana nalokhu, irekhodi le-Ankara lokulwa nobushokobezi lihambisana kakhulu kunelaseWashington-i-US ibeka i-PKK njengenhlangano yamaphekula kanti nokho izikhali futhi izimbisene ne-YPG, ukunwetshwa kwayo kwaseSyria, ehlinzekwa ngisho nepolitiki elawulwa kuzinqubomgomo nezinqubo zayo ngabaphezulu. Abaholi be-PKK. Izinsolo ezivuthayo, ezingenangqondo ebusweni bayo, zokuthi iTurkey izokhulula ngamabomu ama-ISIS fighters iphikisana neqiniso elinyantisayo lokuthi i-ISIS ibilokhu iqondisa udlame ezindaweni zaseTurkey futhi iTurkey ibizikhandla ekucekeleni phansi i-ISIS njengosongo lwezokuphepha, iqiniso engalibona njenge umhlali wetoho waseTurkey.

Ngaphakathi eTurkey, ngisho naphakathi kwalabo abamelene kakhulu no-Erdoğan kanye ne-AKP kukhona ukuvumelana okusekela lokhu kusebenza kwezempi okuqhubekayo inqobo nje uma kukhawulelwe ekuvikelekeni emngceleni kanye nezinjongo zokulwa namaphekula. I-Trump diplomacy ehlanganiswe nomfelandawonye we-AKP ne-MHP ephikisana namaKurdish ngemuva kokhetho lwango-2014, iyachaza ukuthi kungani amaKurds, ngisho noma engenalo uzwelo ngamasu noma inhlangano ye-YPG, ngokuqondakalayo enovalo kakhulu futhi ecasukile ngokwenzekayo, ikakhulukazi ngemva kokuba uTrump ekhiphe izintambo ngaphansi kwabo, ehlambalaza ethi abasibo abadlelana ne-US futhi ukuvikelwa kwabo kwakuyindaba encane engafanele ukuthathwa njengodaba lwezwe lonke. Ukusabela kwamaKurd kwaba ukuhlehlisa ukwakheka kwawo. Ngaphansi kwalezi zimo, ukuhlangana kabusha neDamaseku kubonakala kungebuphukuphuku futhi akumangazi. Okwamanje akunakwenzeka ukusho ukuthi ingabe lokhu kushintsha kokulindelwe yi-YPG kuwukuhlakanipha kwamaqhinga noma kubonisa ukwehla okukhulu ezifisweni zezombusazwe. Okuningi kuncike ekutheni uhulumeni waseSyria uzosabela kanjani, nokuwukuqagela kwanoma ngubani njengamanje. Kuhle ukulalela ukuhlaziya okuhlengiswe kahle kukaGraham Fuller mayelana nesimo samanje saseSyria, eveza ukuthi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule wonke umuntu ukhaphele wonke umuntu eSyria. U-Fuller kufanele azi, njengoba sekuyisikhathi eside esebenza njengesikhulu esiphezulu emsebenzini obaluleke kakhulu we-CIA eTurkey, indawo enkulu yezempi ngesikhathi seMpi Yomshoshaphansi.

Kunzima ukuhlola 'ukuphela komlilo' okusanda kumenyezelwa nguMike Pence e-Ankara ngemuva kwezingxoxo ezinde no-Erdoğan, noma ngabe igama elithi ceasfire lifanelekile yini. Mayelana nalokhu, u-Çavuşoğlu uye waqikelela ukubiza lokho okwavunyelwana ngakho ngokuthi 'ukuphumula' kwezinsuku ezinhlanu emsebenzini oqhubekayo wokuwela umngcele. Ulimi lubalulekile. Uma impi iqala kabusha, iTurkey izosolwa ngokwephula isivumelwano sokumiswa, kuyilapho iTurkey izophendula ngokuthi ivumelene ngokumiswa okwesikhashana. Okuningi cishe kuncike ekutheni amabutho e-YPG ayahamba yini noma anquma ukuhlala, futhi azibandakanye namasosha aseTurkey. Njengamanje, kubonakala kulungile ukuphetha ngokuthi iTurkey ibonakala ithola imiphumela ebiyifuna. Futhi, ngendlela yokuhoxa kweMelika amasosha ayo ayinkulungwane kanye nezingxoxo zayo ezintengantengayo ezintengayo, iRussia ne-Iran zingaqina isibindi, kuyilapho i-Israel neSaudi Arabia ziphelelwa ubuthongo. Akumangazi ukuthi uNobhala Wezwe waseMelika, uMike Pompeo, wathunyelwa esuka e-Ankara waya eJerusalema emsebenzini wobuhlengikazi ukuyojabulisa uNetanyahu. Kufanele futhi kube nentshisekelo ukuthi uPompeo akacelwanga ukuthi ame e-Riyadh nomsebenzi ofanayo wokubamba ngesandla.

Isicelo sami phakathi kwaleyo siphithiphithi sangamabomu nemsulwa, siwukuba kugodlwe ukwahlulela kanye nokuzenzisa okucacile, futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke ukugwema ukungenelela okwengeziwe noma ukukhulisa ububanzi noma ukuqina kokungqubuzana, ukufuna izingxoxo ezilinganiselwe emaqenjini esifunda, futhi uhlale ukhumbula. ukukhathazeka kobuntu. Kungasiza futhi ukunganaki abashisekeli abamelene namaTurkey abanhloso yabo esobala ingushintsho lombuso eTurkey okufanele luzuzwe nganoma iyiphi indlela, kodwa okwamanje ngokunikeza izwe laseTurkey igunya ngokwezinga okungenzeka ngalo, ukukhuthaza uTrump ukuthi enze usongo olukhulu lokubhubhisa iTurkey. kwezomnotho, okuletha usizi kwelinye izwe esifundeni, leli eliyikhaya labantu abayizigidi ezingu-85. Akufanele sikhohlwe ukuthi iTurkey iyizwe elizimele elinelungelo lokusekela ukuphepha kazwelonke njenganoma yimuphi omunye, futhi naphezu kwezinkinga zalo, elikwazi kakhulu kunanoma yiliphi elinye izwe eMpumalanga Ephakathi lokuphishekela i-diplomacy eyakhayo esifundeni sonke.

Nakuba kwakuyihlazo ukuthi uTrump walulaza ukukhathazeka kwamaKurdish, akusilo neze amahloni ukuthi abezindaba benkululeko eMelika benze sengathi ukusebenza kwamasosha aseTurkey okugxile ku-YPG kwathathwa njengokufana nokuhlasela abantu baseKurdish. Kuyafaneleka ukuqaphela ukuthi phakathi neminyaka yokusebenza kweTurkey ngokumelene ne-PKK ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwamandla akuzange kuphonselwe inselelo njengoba kuqondiswe kubantu baseKurdish bebonke, kodwa futhi, i-PKK ayizange ibhaliswe amabutho aseMelika ukuze ahlanganyele emisebenzini ehlangene. njengoba kwakunjalo neYPG. Ukwaneliseka kwamalungelo ayisisekelo amaKurd kubaluleke kakhulu njengakuqala, kodwa lokhu kuphoqeleka akufanele kudidaniswe namalungelo okuzimela aseTurkey okusekela ukuphepha emngceleni ngezindlela ezifanele kanye neSiriya ukubuyisela ubukhosi bayo bendawo ngesizathu esihlobene sokuthi amazwe ahlangene, noma kunjalo imvelaphi yabo ekhulwini leminyaka edlule, kungenzeka ukuthi kuholele ekuthuleni nasekuzinzeni kweMpumalanga Ephakathi kunokuvela kwezindawo zobuhlanga kuso sonke isifunda.