Ezingxoxweni zamazwe ngamazwe kwamukelwa kabanzi ukuthi ukunyuka kwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke okungu-2ยฐC ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni kuzodala ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okuyingozi. Yini oyibheka njengokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa okuphephile okuthi ngemva kwalokho kube nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuyingozi?
Corinne Le Quรฉrรฉ Ngicabanga ukuthi u-2ยฐC umkhawulo okungafanele seqe. Leli izinga lokushisa eliphakeme kakhulu esingacabanga ukuthi lenzekile eMhlabeni okungenani eminyakeni eyizigidi ezimbili edlule. Ngakho siyazi ukuthi ukufudumala kwe-2ยฐC kuzinzile ngokwanele ukuze abantu baphile, nakuba singaba nezinguquko eziningi esizozenza ukuze sivumelane nezwe elifudumele elingu-2ยฐC, ikakhulukazi ukukhiqiza ukudla kanye nokuqinisekisa ukutholakala kwamanzi. Ngaphezu kuka-2ยฐC ingozi iphezulu kakhulu yokuthi impendulo yemvelo yoMhlaba ingaphazamisa isimo sezulu ngaphandle kokufudumala kwaso, futhi kungase kube nzima ngokobuchwepheshe, kubize futhi kungenzeki ukujwayelana nakho, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezimpofu kakhulu emhlabeni.
Robert Watson Sesivele siphila nemiphumela emibi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu se-anthropogenic ezindaweni eziningi zomhlaba, ngezinguquko kukho kokubili izinqubo zebhayoloji nezomzimba. Ngakho, ezweni elikahle besingagcina isimo sezulu siseduze nesanamuhla ngangokunokwenzeka. Njengoba ubukhulu nezinga lokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu landa imiphumela iba mibi kakhulu, abantu abampofu kanye namazwe ampofu yibona abathinteka kakhulu. Abantu abahlala ezindaweni eziphansi basengozini enkulu yokuphakama kwezinga lolwandle, kuyilapho abanye besengozini yokusongelwa ukuvikeleka kokudla nokuvikeleka kwamanzi, ukulahlekelwa izinsizakalo ezibalulekile ze-ecosystem kanye nokwanda kwezinsongo zezempilo.
Nakuba ngingalithandi igama elithi 'ingozi', ngenxa yokuthi amaqembu ahlukene abantu nemikhakha athinteka ngendlela ehlukile, akungabazeki ukuthi abantu abaningi, kanye nesimiso semvelo semvelo, sizothinteka kabi ngokushintsha kwezinga lokushisa elingaphezu kuka-1.5ยฐC uma kuqhathaniswa nangaphambi kwesikhathi. -amazinga ezimboni. Umgomo wezombangazwe wokunciphisa uguquko lwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke lingabi ngaphezu kuka-2ยฐC ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni ngeke ufezeke ngaphandle kokunciphisa ngokushesha okukhulu emhlabeni jikelele ekukhishweni kwesisi esibamba ukushisa emhlabeni.
Simon Lewis Isilinganiso esiphephile sokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke akunakwenzeka ukusho ngokungaqondile. Kwabanye abantu imithelela ehlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu isivele iyingozi, futhi iyabulala. Izisulu, esingavamile ukuzwa ngabo, bancane kakhulu, bakhulile noma bampofu. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi abanye abantu, amazwe, izinhlobo zezilwane kanye nemvelo kusengozini kakhulu kunabanye. Amanye amazwe asengozini kakhulu amelela umkhawulo ongu-1.5ยฐC ezingxoxweni zamazwe ngamazwe. Kunjalo, ukunquma ukuthi yimiphi imiphumela nezingozi okuyinani elamukelekayo lokusebenzisa izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi kusendimeni yezombangazwe, hhayi isayensi. Uma sibheka kuphela imithelela engemihle engase ibe khona ezivunweni zezitshalo ngaphansi kokufudumala okuqhubekayo, okuhambisana nomthelela wokwenyuka kwentengo yokudla - imibhikisho yokudla yango-2007 kanye no-2008 ehlanganisa amazwekazi amathathu, kanye namanani okudla athathwa kabanzi njengengxenye ngesikhathi se-Arab Spring - I cabangela ukufudumala kwe-2ยฐC ukuze kungagcini nje ngokushintsha umhlaba, kodwa kungase kuqhume emphakathini, futhi.
UKevin Anderson Akuyona indima yososayensi besimo sezulu ukuchaza umkhawulo ofanele phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okwamukelekayo nokuyingozi. Lesi isinqumo esifanele senhlangano yomphakathi ngokusebenzisa inkhulumomphendvulwano ephindaphindayo nevulekile, ngenqubo engcolile ngokungenakugwemeka yezombusazwe kanye nezingxoxo zamazwe ngamazwe. Isayensi iyayikhanyisela le ngxoxo, kodwa ososayensi abasahlonyiselwe ukunikeza impendulo eqondile njengabanye abantu abathembisene umshado.
Kodwa-ke, uma izinhlangano zomphakathi sezichaze umkhawulo 'oyingozi' kuyindima yososayensi ukuhlola ukuthi lokhu kusho ukuthini ngokwesabelomali sekhabhoni, ukuncishiswa kokungcoliswa komoya, njll. Njengesakhamuzi, nginombono ofanelekile wokuthi kusho ukuthini 'isimo sezulu esiyingozi. shintsha'. Ngehlulela ukuthi kufanele sihlose ukuba ngaphansi kuka-2ยฐC, kukhawulelwe, ekugcineni, ngokukhishwa kwekhabhoni esesivele sikukhiyele ohlelweni - cishe cishe ku-1.5ยฐC.
Ekugcineni, ukukhetha kwami โโmayelana nomkhawulo ofanele kwenziwa olwazini olungochwepheshe lwesabelomali sekhabhoni, amazinga okunciphisa njll, kuhlanganiswe nokuchazwa kokuziphatha komhlaba kanye nendlela yami yomuntu siqu ebheke engcupheni kanye nokungaqiniseki. Ukukhetha kwami โโumkhawulo obaluleke kakhulu akunabo ubuqiniso ukwedlula okwabanye abaye bacabangisisa ngezindaba.
Iliphi ithuba ocabanga ukuthi umhlaba unalo lokuhlala ngaphansi kuka-2ยฐC wokufudumala?
Corinne Le Quรฉrรฉ Umhlaba manje usufudunyezwe cishe ngo-0.8ยฐC, ngakho-ke singakwazi ukukhawulela ukufudumala ku-2ยฐC, kodwa sidinga ukuthatha isinyathelo manje futhi senze izenzo ezinqala ukuze ukukhula, ingcebo nentuthuko kungaqhubeki nokuthembela ekushisweni kwezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi. Amamodeli ezenhlalo-mnotho asitshela ukuthi inani eliphakeme lezinto ezikhishwayo lidinga ukwenzeka ngaphambi kuka-2020 ukuze kukhawulwe ukufudumala ku-2ยฐC. Lolu wudaba olukhethwa umphakathi kanye nohulumeni.
Robert Watson Naphezu kokuwohloka komnotho kwakamuva ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba futhi kwasho izibopho zikahulumeni zokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya, ukukhishwa kwakamuva kwe-carbon dioxide emhlabeni wonke kuphezulu kakhulu, yingakho mancane amathuba okuthi ufinyelele umgomo oshiwo ongu-2ยฐC. Izibophezelo zamanje zomhlaba zokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi ezikhishwayo zihambisana nokukhuphuka okungenani okungu-3ยฐC (ithuba elingu-50/50) lokushisa, izinga lokushisa elingabonakali emhlabeni cishe iminyaka eyizigidi ezintathu, nezingozi ezinkulu zokukhuphuka ngo-5ยฐC, a. izinga lokushisa elingakaze libonwe emhlabeni cishe iminyaka eyizigidi ezingu-30.
Simon Lewis Ukukhishwa okunqwabelanayo kwamagesi abamba ukushisa okubalelwa isikhathi eside. Kodwa-ke, ukukhishwa kwegesi kuyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka, ngaphandle komzamo omkhulu wokuwehlisa. Cishe akukho ngxoxo mayelana nokuthi ungayigcina kanjani i-carbon eningi yezinto ezimbiwa phansi emkhathini. Lapho ngisho namazwe acebe kakhulu ethola ukuthi anezigidigidi zamadola ekhabhoni yezinsalela egqitshwe ngaphansi komhlaba, ayayikhipha: isihlabathi setiyela eCanada, uwoyela negesi ephukile e-US nase-UK.
Mancane kakhulu amathuba okuhlala ngaphansi kuka-2ยฐC. Izindaba ezinhle ezingavamile ukukhula kancane kwezinga lokushisa lomoya ongaphezulu emhlabeni ngeminyaka yawo-2000s liphakamisa ukuthi kungathatha ishumi leminyaka elide ukufika ku-2ยฐC kunalokho obekucatshangwa ososayensi abaningi phambilini.
UKevin Anderson Ngaphandle uma sinenhlanhla enkulu ngokuzwela kwesimo sezulu, amathuba okuthi angadluli ngisho nomkhawulo ongu-2ยฐC mancane kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, uma singazami, ithuba liyaphuma lisuka kokuncane kakhulu liye kuziro. Ezingxenyeni ezicebile zomhlaba, ngivumelana nombono obanzi weziphetho ze-International Energy Agency. Ukuze sizimisele ngomkhawulo ongu-2ยฐC, sineminyaka engaba mihlanu yokuhlanganisa inguquko enkulu ohlelweni lwamandla e-zero-carbon. Qaphela 'amandla' kanye 'nohlelo' - okungukuthi akukhona nje ugesi, futhi kumayelana nesidingo samandla njengoba kumayelana nokuphakelwa kwamandla.
Uma kungathathwa izinyathelo ezanele mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, umhlaba uyobe unjani eminyakeni engu-50 noma eyikhulu uma kubhekwa amazinga okushisa omhlaba, imithelela yezemvelo, yezenhlalo nezomnotho?
Robert Watson Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni noma ngaphezu kwamazinga amanje kungakhuphula izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke ngaphezu kuka-3ยฐC, kubangele izinguquko kuzo zonke izingxenye zesistimu yesimo sezulu, ezinye zazo ebezingeke zibe khona ngaphambili emakhulwini kuya ezinkulungwaneni zeminyaka, futhi eziningi zazo ezizoqhubeka amakhulu eminyaka. Izinguquko zizokwenzeka kuzo zonke izifunda futhi zizofaka amazinga okushisa ezwe nolwandle, umjikelezo wamanzi, i-cryosphere, izinga lolwandle, ezinye izehlakalo ezimbi kakhulu kanye ne-acidification yolwandle. Lokhu kuzonciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwezolimo, ubungako bamanzi kanye nezinga ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba, kucekele phansi imizamo yokunciphisa ubumpofu, kuxoshwe inani elikhulu labantu, kubangele ukulahlekelwa okukhulu kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo futhi kucekele phansi izinsiza ezibalulekile ze-ecosystem.
UKevin Anderson Uma amanani anamuhla e-emissions eqhubeka - futhi okwamanje angiboni izinqubomgomo ezibalulekile noma izizathu zokuthi kungani kungenzeka ehle - ngivumelana nokuhlaziya kwe-IEA ukuthi u-4โ6ยฐC ekupheleni kwekhulunyaka ubukeka engenzeka. Njengoba izinto ezikhishwayo zisele zingancishisiwe, i-4ยฐC ngo-2050โ2070 ayibonakali ingenangqondo.
Corinne Le Quรฉrรฉ Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni okwamanje kulandela izimo ezidla kakhulu ikhabhoni ezisetshenziselwa ukuveza ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, okuholela emazingeni okushisa angaba ngu-2ยฐC kakade cishe ngo-2050, kanye no-4โ6ยฐC ngo-2100. Lokhu akuwona kuphela amazinga okufudumala aphezulu kakhulu, kodwa futhi ukufudumala okushesha kakhulu, okukhawulela amandla okujwayela imvelo yethu kanye nomphakathi.
Ngo-2ยฐC ungalindela ukuthi i-Arctic ingabi neqhwa ehlobo, kanye nokuncibilika okukhulu nokuhlelekile kwesembozo seqhwa neqhwa enyakatho nenkabazwe, okuhlanganisa ne-permafrost equkethe inani elikhulu lekhabhoni. Ungalindela futhi izinguquko zesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi enyakatho nenkabazwe, kanye noshintsho olukhulu emjikelezweni wamanzi, lapho izindawo ezomile ziba nezindawo ezomile nezimanzi zibe manzi, kanye nokwanda kwezikhukhula nobukhulu bezikhukhula, isomiso namagagasi okushisa. โ okungukuthi izehlakalo ezeqisayo.
Ngo-4ยฐC ulindele uguquko lwendawo ezungezile, okuhlanganisa uhlaza kuzo zonke izigaba, zesimo sezulu, izinkathi zonyaka kanye namaphethini wesimo sezulu (isb. imonsoon nenyakatho ye-Atlantic oscillation elawula isimo sezulu eYurophu). Imithelela ye-biosphere mikhulu njengoba izitshalo nezilwane ezivamile zilahlekelwa ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-50 ezinhlobonhlobo zazo ze-niche. Izindleko zokuzivumelanisa nezimo - ikakhulukazi ukunyuka kwezinga lolwandle kanye nokuvikela ngokumelene neziphepho ezikhulayo ezindaweni ezisogwini - zizoba zikhulu kakhulu.
Simon Lewis Umhlaba we-2100 uzokwakhiwa yizimpendulo eziningi ezinseleleni ezibhekene nesintu. Kuzodingeka sisungule izinto ezintsha ukuze sihlale ngaphambi kokuvela kwamagciwane amelana namagciwane [futhi] sizodinga ukonga umhlabathi nempilo yawo ukuze sigcine ukukhiqiza kwezolimo, ukubala izinkinga ezimbili ezinganakwa zesikhathi eside ezingase zikhawulele inhlalakahle yabantu kuleli khulu leminyaka.
Ngokuphathelene nezinga lokushisa elimaphakathi lonyaka, ngisola ukuthi sizobona ukufudumala kwe-3-4ยฐC. Lokhu kwakuzoguqula umhlaba wenyama inzalo yethu eyayingawubona. Ama-ecosystem amaningi azoba amaqoqo amasha ezinhlobo zezilwane. Izinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo zizobe zehle kakhulu. Amazinga olwandle ayoba phezulu; abanye abantu basedolobheni naseziqhingini bazobe sebethuthile. Ukukhiqiza kwezolimo emhlabeni wonke kuzoba nzima njengoba izindlela zokuna kwemvula zishintsha. Kuzosetshenziswa izinsiza ezinkulu ekuzivumelaniseni nezimo ezintsha.
Bengingeke ngibheje isimo sesintu. Akukacaci kimina ukuthi impendulo izoba yini ekutheni indlela umnotho oqhutshwa ngayo inciphisa izimo zemvelo ezidingekayo ukuze kusimame izigidigidi zabantu emhlabeni.
Ungakwazi yini ukunikeza umbono wezinga nesivinini sezinguquko ohulumeni bethu okudingeka bazenze ukuze kugwenywe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okuyinhlekelele?
Robert Watson Ukuze kuzuzwe umgomo wezombangazwe wokunciphisa uguquko emazingeni okushisa asezingeni lomhlaba angabi ngaphezu kuka-2ยฐC ngaphezu kwamazinga angaphambi kwezimboni kudinga isinyathelo esisheshayo yibo bonke abakhipha amagesi abamba ukushisa. Ukukhishwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emhlabeni wonke kufanele kukhuphuke ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka futhi ngaphambi konyaka wezi-2020, futhi kube ngaphansi kwamaphesenti angama-50 ezinto ezikhishwa manje ngo-2050. Amazwe anezimboni kufanele ahole.
Ushintsho olusheshayo oluya emnothweni wekhabhoni ephansi luyadingeka, kubhekwane nayo yonke imikhakha - amandla, ezokuthutha, izimboni, ezolimo kanye namahlathi - nokusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bekhabhoni ephansi obuhambisana nezinqubomgomo ezifana nenani lekhabhoni kanye nezinguquko ekuziphatheni komuntu ngamunye, ezinkampanini nakuhulumeni. .
Corinne Le Quรฉrรฉ Ohulumeni kudingeka bathathe isinyathelo ngokushesha, ngokutshalwa kwezimali okubalulekile, ikakhulukazi ekongeni ugesi, kubuchwepheshe obusebenzisa amandla - izindlu, ezokuthutha, izinto zikagesi kanye ne-IT - kanye nemithetho ecacile ekhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokusatshalaliswa okukhulu kwamandla avuselelekayo.
Emazweni acebile, ukukhishwa kwegesi ekhishwayo kudingeka kwehle okungenani ngamaphesenti amathathu ngonyaka kuze kube yilapho sekuyingxenye yamazinga awo ka-3. Ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni e-UK kwehle cishe ngephesenti elilodwa ngonyaka kule minyaka engu-1990 edlule, ngakho imizamo kufanele ithuthukiswe. Ngezinguquko ezinjalo nemizamo ehambisanayo e-China nakwamanye amazwe ezomnotho asafufusa, sisethubeni lokukhawulela ukufudumala ku-1ยฐC.
Simon Lewis Ukuncishiswa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa [okudingekayo] ukuze kube noshintsho ngo-50/50 ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nomgomo ongu-2ยฐC, kanye nokuzuza ukukhishwa kwegesi okulinganayo phakathi kwamazwe athuthukile nasathuthuka esikhathini esizayo, kungaphezu kwamaphesenti amahlanu minyaka yonke amashumi eminyaka emazweni athuthukile. . Bambalwa abacabanga ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka. Izinqubomgomo zezomnotho nezokulawula ziyadingeka ukuze kugcinwe i-carbon eningi yezinsalela phansi. Uma kubhekwa izithakazelo ezithintekayo, ohulumeni abazimisele, uma sikubeka ngembaba, ukushaysa umthetho i-BP, iStatoil, iShell nezinye ukuthi ziphume ebhizinisini labo lamanje.
UKevin Anderson Lo mbuzo uhlobene nendawo yami eyinhloko yocwaningo. Kunoma yiliphi izinga elizwakalayo lokulingana phakathi kwezingxenye zomhlaba ezimpofu nezicebile, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni okuvela emazweni afana ne-UK, i-US kanye ne-EU yonkana kudingeka kwehle cishe ngamaphesenti ayi-10 ngonyaka. Amazinga anjalo okuncishiswa awanaso isibonelo futhi angaphezu kwanoma yini okwamanje.
Njengomuntu omsebenzi wakhe ubanika ukuqonda okujulile ngekusasa elimnyama elibhekene nembulunga nesintu, wena ngokwakho ubhekana kanjani nalokhu ezingeni lemizwa nengokwengqondo?
Robert Watson Udaba lokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye nezinye izindaba ezihlobene nalo, njengokuqedwa kobumpofu, ukulahleka kwezinhlobonhlobo zezilwane nokudla kanye nokuvikeleka kwamanzi, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuthi ungadangali ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezinyathelo zikahulumeni kanye nezinkampani ezizimele, noma ukunganeliseki phakathi kwezinhlangano zomphakathi. Umsebenzi wami, kanye nabanye ososayensi, ukuqinisekisa ukuthi ohulumeni, izimboni kanye nezinhlangano zomphakathi bonke bayazazi izingozi ezihlobene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu, nokuthi kunezixazululo ezibiza izindleko nezilinganayo.
Izizukulwane zamanje nezesikhathi esizayo zidinga ukuthi sithathe isinyathelo manje; akukho okunye okuzokwenza. Akekho phakathi kwethu ongakwazi ukuzifeza ngokudangala. Uma singabaphumeleli, bazobuza ukuthi kungani sifake ikusasa labo ngenxa yamandla ashibhile, futhi [kungani sehlulekile] ukubhekana nezithakazelo esinazo ezizuzayo ngokugcina isimo samanje.
Corinne Le Quรฉrรฉ Ucwaningo lwakamuva luthole ukuthi umphakathi waseBrithani ukweseka kakhulu ukusuka kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kanye noguquko endleleni esisebenzisa ngayo nesibusa ngayo amandla. Nginethemba lokuthi sizophatha inguquko eya emhlabeni osimeme ngokuthula, okuhlanganisa nokukhawulela ukufudumala ku-2ยฐC noma cishe nje. Mina nozakwethu sisebenza kanzima ukwenza lokhu kwenzeke, futhi ngihlala ngicabanga ukuthi singase siphumelele.
UKevin Anderson Ngikubheka njengokungaphumeleli (futhi kungamukeleki ngokokuziphatha) kulabo bethu abasondelene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu ukuthi bangakhombisi ukuncipha okukhulu kokuphuma kwethu esikhiqizweni, nakuba iningi lozakwethu lingavumelani nalesi sikhundla. Akukhona ukuthi ukukhishwa kwethu komuntu siqu, ngokuhlukaniswa, kubalulekile, kodwa ukuthi isenzo sethu esihlangene 'njengochwepheshe' endaweni sinikeza ukwethembeka ocwaningweni lwethu kanye nobukhali beziphetho zethu. Ubuqotho bezinkulumo zethu zokuthi abantu, izinhlangano, ohulumeni njll basebenzise amazinga amakhulu okunciphisa bubukela phansi lapho umlayezo ulethwa usuka kumafidi angu-35,000 endleleni eya komunye umhlangano 'obalulekile' wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu wamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukwenza izinguquko ezinjalo zomuntu siqu kuye kwaba inselele kakhulu. Ubungane bami, izibopho zomndeni kanye nezinga lempilo lilonke lihlupheke kakhulu ngenxa yokunciphisa ukungcola engizizwe ngiphoqelekile ukukwenza. Iningi lethu elisebenzela ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu liseqenjini elikhipha umoya ongcolile ezizweni zakithi, ingasaphathwa eyembulunga yonke. Kulabo abafana nathi, ngeke kube lula - kodwa ngokuqinisekile kulula kunabampofu basemhlabeni, ngisho nenzalo yethu siqu, ukubhekana nemithelela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okunganqamuki.
Simon Lewis Kulula ukugxila ekubhaleni amaphepha esayensi yezobuchwepheshe, noma ukuphikisa ngokuthi isimo siyinkimbinkimbi ngakho-ke akwethusi kangako. Kulula ukucabanga ngemininingwane kuphela hhayi isithombe esikhulu. Nokho, ngicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukwenza ngethemba. Ulwazi lwesayensi luyithuluzi elibalulekile ekuqondeni umhlaba. Futhi ngibheka ukuthi ukuqonda kangcono umhlaba kuzonikeza ithuba elingcono lokuwushintsha ube ngcono.
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