Ngo-September odlule kwaba nesenzakalo sezulu esasiyivelakancane ngempela: isiphepho saseMedithera, noma “imithi.” Ngesinye isikhathi, uLwandle LwaseMedithera aluzange lushise ngokwanele ukukhiqiza iziphepho ngaphezu kwamakhulu ambalwa eminyaka (yebo, amakhulu ambalwa!) Kulokhu, nokho, iStorm Daniel sahlasela iLibya ngozamcolo wohlobo lwebhayibheli izinsuku ezine eziqondile. Kwanele ukumboza amadamu e-al-Bilad nase-Abu Mansour eduze kwedolobha laseDerna, akhiwa ngeminyaka yawo-1970 ukuze acaciselwe izinto zakudala zomhlaba opholile. Isikhukhula esiwumphumela wabhubhisa cishe izakhiwo eziyinkulungwane, zageza izinkulungwane zabantu olwandle, futhi zasusa amashumi ezinkulungwane ezengeziwe.
USaliha Abu Bakr, ummeli, utshele indaba ehlasimulisa umzimba yokuthi amanzi ayelokhu ekhuphuka kanjani esakhiweni sakhe ngaphambi kokuthi acishe afinyelele ophahleni futhi akhukhula izakhamuzi zakhona eziningi. Wabambelela efenisha yokhuni amahora amathathu emanzini. “Ngiyakwazi ukubhukuda,” yena etshela intatheli ngemva kwalokho, “kodwa lapho ngizama ukusindisa umkhaya wami, angikwazanga ukwenza lutho.” Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu, kucasulwa yindlela esiphalaza ngayo 37 billion amathani we-metric wegesi eyingozi ye-carbon dioxide emkhathini wethu minyaka yonke, enza inhlekelele yaseLibya izikhathi 50 kungenzeka kakhulu kunakuqala. Okubi nakakhulu, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye nomhlaba wonke, lelo phupho elibi ngokungangabazeki liwukuqala nje kwezinhlekelele ezilandelanayo ezizayo (futhi zifike zibuye zifike) ngokungangabazeki zizokwenza izigidi zabantu zingabi namakhaya noma zibe zimbi nakakhulu.
Kwehluleka Amabanga
Emjahweni wokugcina le planethi ekushiseni okungaphezu kuka-2.7° Fahrenheit (1.5° Centigrade) ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sangaphambi kwezimboni, umhlaba wonke usuvele uthola amabanga anyanyekayo. Ngale kwalokhu kulinganisa, ososayensi bayesaba, sonke isimo sezulu seplanethi singawela esiphithiphithini, siyibekele inselele enkulu impucuko ngokwayo. I Inkomba Yokusebenza Yokushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu (CCPI), eqapha ukuqaliswa kwezivumelwano zesimo sezulu zaseParis, yethule iziphetho zayo ezishaqisayo embikweni wasekupheleni kukaMashi. Iqembu le-CCPI lidunyazwe kakhulu ngalokho elikutholile - alikho izwe eliseduzane ngisho nokuhlangabezana nemigomo ebekwe kuleso sivumelwano - kangangokuthi lishiye izindawo ezintathu eziphezulu ohlelweni lwayo lokuklelisa zingenalutho ngokuphelele.
Ngokwengxenye enkulu, amazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi enze umboniso ompofu kakhulu uma kuziwa ekukhishweni kwesisi esibamba ukushisa okuvela ekushisweni kwezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi esezishisa iplanethi ngokukhulu kangaka. Kuyavunywa, iMorocco, enezinjongo zamandla aluhlaza ezinde futhi ezishisekelayo, ingene endaweni yesishiyagalolunye, futhi Egypt, encike kakhulu emandleni kagesi ophehlwa ngamanzi futhi enamaphrojekthi athile elanga, ikleliswe endaweni yama-22. Nokho, amanye amazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi njengeSaudi Arabia kanye ne-United Arab Emirates ashayeke phansi eshadini le-CCPI. Lokho kubalulekile njengoba ngokungangabazeki ngeke umangale ukwazi ukuthi isifunda kukhiqiza mhlawumbe u-27% we-petroleum yomhlaba ngonyaka futhi uhlanganisa abakhiqizi bakawoyela abahlanu kwabayi-10 abakhulu emhlabeni.
Okuxakayo ukuthi i-Middle East isengozini ekhethekile yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ososayensi baye benza kanjalo okutholiwe ukuthi ihlangabezana nezinga lokushisa eliphindwe kabili njengesilinganiso somhlaba wonke futhi, esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, baxwayisa ngokuthi izohlupheka, njengokwakamuva. cwaningo okuvela kuyi-Carnegie Institute for International Peace yakubeka, kusukela “ekuphakameni kwamagagasi okushisa, imvula enciphayo, isomiso esinwetshiwe, iziphepho zesihlabathi ezinamandla nezikhukhula, nokukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle.” Futhi nokho amanye amazwe abhekene nosongo olukhulu oluvela enkingeni yesimo sezulu abonakala ehlose ukuwenza abe kubi kakhulu.
I-Sparta encane
Inkomba ye-CCPI, ekhishwe yi-Germanwatch, i-NewClimate Institute, kanye ne-Climate Action Network (CAN), ezinhlwini amazwe emizamweni yawo yokufeza izinhloso ezibekwe yiSivumelwano saseParis ngokwemibandela emine: ukukhishwa kwawo kwamagesi abamba ukushisa, ukusebenzisa kwawo amandla avuselelekayo, ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwamandla kaphethiloli, kanye nezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni wawo zesimo sezulu. Ababhali babhale i-United Arab Emirates (UAE) endaweni yama-65, beyibiza “ngelinye lamazwe angenzi kahle kakhulu.” Umbiko wabe usugxeka uhulumeni kaMongameli u-Mohammed Bin Zayed, wathi: “Ukukhishwa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya e-UAE kumuntu ngamunye (GHG) siphakathi kwenani eliphakeme kakhulu emhlabeni, kanye nengcebo yomuntu ngamunye, kuyilapho izinhloso zayo zesimo sezulu zingenele. I-UAE iyaqhubeka nokuthuthukisa nokuxhasa ngezimali izizinda ezintsha zikawoyela negesi ngaphakathi nangaphandle.” Ogwini oluseningizimu-mpumalanga yeNhlonhlo ye-Arabia, i-UAE inezakhamuzi ezingaba yisigidi kuphela (kanye nezisebenzi eziyizivakashi ezingaba yizigidi eziyisishiyagalombili). Noma kunjalo ingamandla e-geopolitical kanye negesi ebamba ukushisa kwe-oda lokuqala.
I-Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, noma i-ADNOC, ekomkhulu enhloko-dolobha yalelo zwe futhi isizwa usomabhizinisi uSultan Ahmed al-Jaber (ophinde abe ngungqongqoshe wezwe wezomkhakha nobuchwepheshe obuthuthukile), inokuthile okwengeziwe. ambitious izinhlelo zokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwe-petroleum emhlabeni. Eqinisweni, i-ADNOC ifuna ukukhulisa ukukhiqizwa kwayo kukawoyela kusuka ezigidini ezine kuya emiphongolweni eyizigidi ezinhlanu ngosuku ngo-2027, ngenkathi iqhubeka nokuthuthukisa insimu yayo ebalulekile kawoyela i-al-Nouf, eduze kwalapho i-UAE yakha isiqhingi sokwenziwa ukusiza ngokulindelekile kwayo. ukwanda kwesikhathi esizayo. Ukuze kube nobulungisa, i-UAE iziphatha ngokuhlukile kancane kune-United States, ebeka kuphela izindawo ezimbalwa kangcono ku-57. Ngo-Okthoba odlule, empeleni, i-American. ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela, eqhubeka nokuxhaswa kakhulu nguhulumeni (njengoba kwenza leyo mboni eYurophu), empeleni ifinyelele phezulu.
I-UAE ingumsekeli oyinhloko wesu elingabazisayo lokuthwebula nokugcinwa kwekhabhoni, okungakatholakali ukuthi yehlisa ukukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide (CO2) ngokuphawulekayo noma ukwenza kanjalo ngokuphepha nangendlela ethengekayo. Umagazini I-Oil Change International iveza ukuthi imizamo yezwe yokubamba i-carbon e-Emirates Steel Plant cishe ayithathi ngaphezu kuka-17% we-CO2 ekhiqizwa lapho nokuthi i-carbon dioxide egciniwe ibe isijovwa ezindaweni ezindala, ezingakhiqizi zikawoyela ukusiza ukubuyisa amaconsi okugcina kaphethiloli. babambe.
I-UAE, iPentagon eyibiza ngokuzithoba ngokuthi “i-Sparta encane” ngokungenelela kwayo okunonya kwezempi ezindaweni ezinjenge-Yemen neSudan, ishaya indiva ngesibindi ukuvumelana kwesayensi yamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nesenzo sezulu. Njengoba u-al-Jaber we-ADNOC wayenehlathi Faka isicelo ekwindla edlule: “Ayikho isayensi, noma asikho isimo laphaya, esithi ukuqedwa kukaphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi yikho okuzofinyelela ku-1.5C.”
Ukuphika okudabukisayo okunjalo kufinyelela ukuphakama kwe-Trumpian ngobukhazikhazi be-mendacity bayo. Ngaleso sikhathi, u-al-Jaber futhi, ngokuxakayo, wayengusihlalo wengqungquthela yaminyaka yonke ye-UN Conference of Parties (COP) sezulu. NgoNovemba 21 odlule, waba nesibindi kuphakanyisiwe le nselelo: “Ngicela ungisize, ningibonise umgwaqo wokukhipha uphethiloli wezinto ezimbiwa phansi ozovumela intuthuko esimeme yezenhlalo nezomnotho, ngaphandle uma ufuna ukubuyisela umhlaba emigedeni.” (Emhlabeni usiza ekudaleni, yebo, ngisho nemigede izoba kushisa kakhulu ukuba ingaphathwa.) Kulo nyaka i-International Energy Agency izimisele ngokuqiniseka. waphendula isiqephu sakhe esiyingqophamlando ngokubika ukuthi amazwe acebile, ikakhulukazi lawo aseYurophu, empeleni akhulise imikhiqizo yawo yezwe lonke ngo-2023 njengoba anciphisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 ngo-4.5%. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuqhela ezintweni zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi kungenza isintu sichume kakhudlwana futhi siphephe enhlekeleleni yeplanethi kunokusenza sibe izinxibi eziningi kangaka.
“Akunjalo neze!”
Yini engaba yimbi kunenqubomgomo ye-UAE ye-pro-fossil yamandla kaphethiloli? Nokho, i-Iran, eshade kakhulu nowoyela negesi, iku-66, ikleliswe endaweni eyodwa ngaphansi kwalelozwe. Okuxakayo ukuthi, unswinyo oluningi lwaseMelika ekuthengisweni kwe-petroleum e-Iran ekugcineni, kungenzeka ukuphenduka ama-ayatollah abusayo kulelo zwe ekudaleni amaphrojekthi amakhulu kagesi womoya kanye nelanga.
Kodwa nginesiqiniseko sokuthi ngeke umangale ukwazi ukuthi ufile ekugcineni - ngokugcizelela "ufile" - uza intandokazi kaDonald ("bhola, bhola, bhora") UTrump, eSaudi Arabia, okuthi, eneminyaka engama-67, "athole amaphuzu aphansi kakhulu kuzo zonke izigaba ezine zenkomba ye-CCPI: Ukusetshenziswa Kwezamandla, Inqubomgomo Yesimo Sezulu, Amandla Avuselelekayo, kanye Nokukhishwa Kwe-GHG." Abanye ababukeli baye bakwenza lokho kuphawulwe ukuthi, kusukela ngo-1990, ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni yombuso yombuso kukhuphuke ngenani elihlanganisiwe laminyaka yonke elicishe libe ngama-4% futhi, ngo-2019, lelo zwe elincane laliyi-10th ekhipha i-CO2 ngobukhulu emhlabeni.
Okubi nakakhulu, nakuba ubungeke ukwazi ngendlela abaholi be-United Arab Emirates kanye ne-Saudi Arabia abenza ngayo, iNhlonhlo Yase-Arabia (eyaseyiwugwadule futhi ewugwadule) ayinalutho ezinhlekeleleni ezingaba khona ezikhiqizwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Unyaka ka-2023 empeleni ubungowesithathu oshisa kakhulu kwirekhodi eSaudi Arabia. (U-2021 uthathe uphawu olushisa kakhulu kunabo bonke kuze kube manje.) Isimo sezulu asibekezeleleki ehlobo. NgoJulayi 18, 2023, izinga lokushisa esifundazweni saseMpumalanga yombuso, i-al-Ahsa, kufinyelelwe cishe okungenakucatshangwa okungu-122.9° F (50.5° C). Uma, esikhathini esizayo, amazinga okushisa anjalo ayezohambisana nomswakama ongu-50%, abanye abacwaningi basikisela ukuthi angabulala abantu. NgokukaProfesa Lewis Halsey wase-University of Roehampton eNgilandi nozakwabo, lolo hlobo lokushisa ingakhuphula ngempela izinga lokushisa lomuntu ngo-1.8° F. Ngamanye amazwi, kungaba sengathi uphethwe imfiva futhi, okubi nakakhulu, “amazinga abantu okugaywa kwemithambo nawo akhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-56, nezinhliziyo zabo zenyuka ngamaphesenti angu-64.”
Nakuba iNhlonhlo Yase-Arabia yomile uma kuqhathaniswa, amadolobha asoLwandle Olubomvu naseGulf of Aden ngezinye izikhathi angaba nomswakama futhi abe namachibi, okusho ukuthi ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa ngokushesha noma kamuva kuwenza angahlali muntu. Ukushisa okunjalo okukhuphukayo kusongela ngisho nenye “yezinsika ezinhlanu” zamaSulumane. Kulo nyaka odlule uhambo lwamaSulumane oluya eMecca, olwaziwa ngokuthi iHajj, lwenzeka ngo-June, lapho amazinga okushisa ngezinye izikhathi ayefinyelela ku-118° F (48° C) entshonalanga yeSaudi Arabia. Bangaphezu kuka-2,000 ama-pilgrim aba yizisulu zazo ukucindezeleka kokushisa, inkinga eqinisekisiwe izoba yimbi kakhulu njengoba iplanethi ishisa kakhulu.
Naphezu kosongo olubangelwa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu enhlalakahleni yezakhamizi zakuleliya lizwe, uhulumeni weNkosi uSalman kanye neNkosana yoBukhosi uMohammed Bin Salman wenza okuncane kakhulu ukubhekana nezinkinga ezikhulayo. Njengoba ababhali be-CCPI bekubeka, “Ukukhishwa kwesisi esingcolisa umoya eSaudi Arabia kumuntu ngamunye kukhuphuka kancane kancane. Isabelo saso samandla avuselelekayo ku-total primary primary supply supply (TPES) sisondele ku-zero.” Khonamanjalo, engqungqutheleni ye-UN yesimo sezulu yango-2022 eyayise-Egypt, “i-Saudi Arabia ibambe iqhaza elingakhi ezingxoxweni. Ithimba lalo lifaka phakathi ama-lobbyists amaningi e-fossil fuel. Liphinde lazama ukululaza ulimi olusetshenziswe esinqumweni se-COP.”
Emhlanganweni olandelayo e-Dubai ekwindla edlule, i-COP28, idokhumenti yokugcina kubizwe kuphela "Ukusuka ekulahlekeni kwezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi ezinhlelweni zamandla, ngendlela enobulungiswa, ehlelekile nelinganayo, kusheshisa isenzo kuleli shumi leminyaka elibucayi, ukuze sifinyelele ku-zero ephelele ngo-2050 ngokuhambisana nesayensi." Okugwenyiwe kwaba ibinzana elibaluleke kakhulu elithi "isigaba phansi" noma "isigaba sokuphuma" uma kukhulunywa ngezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi futhi ngisho "ukuguquguquka" okuthambile kwafakwa kuphela ekuphikiseni okunzima kuka-Riyadh, ungqongqoshe wakhe wezamandla, uPrince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, wathi “akunjalo” kunoma yiluphi ulimi olunjalo. Wengeze wathi, "Futhi ngiyakuqinisekisa ukuthi akekho noyedwa umuntu - ngikhuluma ngohulumeni - okholelwa kulokho." Ukugomela kwakhe kwakungumbhedo. Eqinisweni, abanye abaholi, njengalabo Isiqhingi sasePacific izizwe, zicabangele ukuqedwa ngokushesha kwezibaseli ezimbiwa phansi ezibalulekile ekusindeni kwamazwe azo.
Ukulahla Umqondo Wezinyathelo Ezincane
Nakuba abaholi baseSaudi Arabia ngezinye izikhathi bahlanganyela ukushisa okuhlaza okotshani, kuhlanganise nokwenza ngezikhathi ezithile izimemezelo mayelana nezinhlelo zesikhathi esizayo zokuthuthukisa amandla aluhlaza, awenzanga lutho kulokho, naphezu kwamandla amakhulu oMbuso wamandla elanga nawomoya. Okuxakayo ukuthi impumelelo enkulu yeSaudi green energy ibe phesheya, sibonga Amandla e-ACWA eqinile, ibhizinisi elihlanganyelwe likahulumeni nezizimele eMbusweni. Uhulumeni waseMorocco, okuwukuphela kwawo eMpumalanga Ephakathi othathe izinyathelo ezinqala ekulweni nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, ulethe i-ACWA njengengxenye Consortium ukwakha i-epochal Noor concentrated energy complex complex eduze kwedolobha lasendulo i-Ouarzazate emaphethelweni ogwadule lwaseSahara. Izibekele umgomo wokuthola u-52% kagesi wayo ezintweni ezivuselelekayo ngo-2030. Uphendule ukuthi, ekupheleni kuka-2022, u-37% kagesi waseMorocco usuvele uvela ezintweni ezivuselelekayo futhi, ngonyaka odlule nje, weqela ku-40%, ngokukhiqizwa okuvuselelekayo okuphelele kwamagigawathi angu-4.6 wamandla.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, iMorocco ine- i-plethora yamaphrojekthi kagesi ohlaza asendleleni, okuhlanganisa ukufakwa kukagesi wamanzi okwengeziwe angama-20, amapulazi omoya ayi-19, kanye namapulazi elanga ali-16. Izitshalo zelanga zizodwa kulindeleke ukuthi zikhiqize amagigawathi ayi-13.5 eminyakeni embalwa, okuphindaphindeka kathathu inani lamanje lamandla aluhlaza eliphuma ezweni. Amapulazi amabili amakhulu omoya, elinye elakhiwe kabusha ngesizukulwane esisha sama-turbine amakhulu, asevele akhona woza ku-inthanethi engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka. Ukwandiswa kwezwe lokukhiqizwa kukagesi oluhlaza kusukela lethula izinhlelo zalo ezinombono ngo-2009 akugcinanga nje ngokusiza ekwenzeni igxathu elikhulu ekuqedeni ukukhiqizwa kukagesi kodwa kube nomthelela ugesi emaphandleni ayo, lapho ukufinyelela emandleni manje sekutholakala emhlabeni wonke. Kule minyaka engamashumi amabili nesigamu edlule, uhulumeni uhlinzeke amakhaya ayizigidi ezi-2.1 ngogesi. I-Morocco inama-hydrocarbons ayo ambalwa futhi amandla aluhlaza endawo asiza izwe ukuthi ligweme ukudonsa kanzima kwisabelomali saso.
Ngokuphambene nombhedo omubi ovame ukukhafulwa yizikhulu zaseSaudi ne-Emirati, inkosi yaseMoroccan, uMohammed VI, ayinakungabaza ngezinselelo ezinzima izwe layo eligcwele ubumpofu elibhekene nazo. Yena utshele engqungqutheleni yesimo sezulu ye-UN COP28 ekuqaleni kuka-December, “Njengoba ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kwanda ngokungenakuvinjelwa, ama-COP kumele, kusukela lapha kuqhubeke, aqhamuke emcabangweni ‘wezinyathelo ezincane,’ osekunesikhathi eside ziwaphawuleka.”
Izinyathelo ezinkulu ezibheke eMpumalanga Ephakathi (kanye nomhlaba) wamandla anekhabhoni ephansi, kungaba intuthuko enkulu. Ngeshwa, emhlabeni basiza ekushiseni ngendlela emangalisayo, i-United Arab Emirates, i-Iran, kanye ne-Saudi Arabia bathathe izinyathelo - ezinkulu, empeleni - ezithinta ukukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide eyengeziwe. Okubi nakakhulu, zitholakala engxenyeni yomhlaba lapho izinqubomgomo zokubuyisela emuva zifana nokudlala i-roulette yesiRashiya ngesibhamu esigcwele.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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