Yini engakwazi kodwa ukushaya iso ekuvukeleni Tunisia futhi Egypt ukungabikho okusobala kwe-Muslimism. Ngokwesiko elingcono kakhulu lezwe lentando yeningi, abantu bamane bavukela umbuso ocindezelayo, inkohlakalo nobumpofu bawo, futhi bafuna inkululeko nethemba lezomnotho. Ukuhlakanipha okugxekayo kwama-liberals asentshonalanga, ngokusho kwawo, emazweni ama-Arab, umqondo wentando yeningi wangempela ukhawulelwe kubantu abakhulu abakhululekile kuyilapho iningi lingaqoqwa kuphela nge-fundamentalism yezenkolo noma ubuzwe, kuye kwafakazelwa njengephutha. Umbuzo omkhulu uthi kuzokwenzekani ngokulandelayo? Ubani ozophuma njengomnqobi kwezepolitiki?
Ngenkathi kuqokwa uhulumeni omusha wesikhashana e-Tunis, wakhipha ama-Islamist kanye nesobunxele. Ukusabela kwama-liberals kwaba: kuhle, bayafana; ukweqisa okubili kobushiqela - kodwa ingabe izinto zilula njengalokho? Ingabe ukuphikisana kweqiniso kwesikhathi eside akukhona ngokuqondile phakathi kwama-Islamist nakwesokunxele? Ngisho noma behlangene okwesikhashana ngokumelene nombuso, uma sebesondele ekunqobeni, ubunye babo buhlukana, bahlanganyela empini ebulalayo, ngokuvamile enonya kakhulu kunesitha esihlanganyelwe.
Asizange yini siyibone ngeso lengqondo impi enjalo ngemva kokhetho lokugcina e-Iran? Yini amakhulu ezinkulungwane Abasekeli bakaMousavi wema for kwaba iphupho ethandwayo ukuthi wasekela Khomeini Revolution: inkululeko nobulungiswa. Ngisho noma lesi siphumo sephupho, siholele ekuqhumeni okumangalisayo kobuhlakani bezombangazwe nezenhlalo, ukuhlola kwenhlangano kanye nezinkulumo-mpikiswano phakathi kwabafundi nabantu abavamile. Lokhu kuvulwa kwangempela okwaveza amandla angakaze azwakale oguquko emphakathini, umzuzu lapho konke okwakubonakala kungenzeka, kwabe sekuvinjwa kancane kancane ngokuthathwa kokulawulwa kwezepolitiki yinhlangano yamaSulumane.
Ngisho nasendabeni yokunyakaza okucacile okuyisisekelo, umuntu kufanele aqaphele ukuthi angaphuthelwa ingxenye yezenhlalakahle. I-Taliban yethulwa njalo njengeqembu lama-Islamist ayisisekelo eliphoqelela ukubusa kwawo ngokwesaba. Nokho, lapho, entwasahlobo ka-2009, bathatha isigodi saseSwat ePakistan, The New York Times babike ukuthi basungule "ukuvukela kwekilasi okusebenzisa imifantu ejulile phakathi kweqembu elincane labanikazi bezindlu abacebile nabaqashi babo abangenamhlaba". Uma, "ngokuthatha ithuba" losizi lwabalimi, amaTaliban adala, ngokusho kwe-New York Times "i-alamu mayelana nobungozi ePakistan, ehlala iningi le-feudal," yini evimbe amademokhrasi enkululeko ePakistan nase-US ngokufanayo. "ukuthatha inzuzo" yalolu sizi futhi uzama ukusiza abalimi abangenamhlaba? Ingabe ukuthi amandla e-feudal ePakistan angabambisene bemvelo yentando yeningi yenkululeko?
Isiphetho esingenakugwenywa okufanele sifinyelelwe ukuthi ukukhuphuka kobuSulumane obuqinile bekulokhu kuwulunye uhlangothi lokunyamalala kwesobunxele bezwe emazweni amaSulumane. Lapho i-Afghanistan ivezwa njengezwe elikhulu kunawo wonke lama-Islamic fundamentalist, osakhumbula ukuthi, eminyakeni engama-40 edlule, kwakuyizwe elinesiko eliqinile lezwe, kuhlanganise neqembu elinamandla lamakhomanisi elathatha izintambo lapho ngaphandle kweSoviet Union? Lashonaphi leli siko lezwe?
Futhi kubalulekile ukufunda izehlakalo eziqhubekayo e-Tunisia nase-Egypt (kanye nase-Yemen kanye ... mhlawumbe, ngethemba, ngisho ne-Saudi Arabia) ngokumelene nalesi sizinda. Uma isimo ekugcineni sizinzile ukuze umbuso omdala usinde kodwa ngokuhlinzwa okuthile okunenkululeko yokulungisa izimonyo, lokhu kuzodala ukuhlehla okungenakunqotshwa kwe-fundamentalist. Ukuze ifa eliyisihluthulelo liqhubeke likhona, abakhululekile badinga usizo lobuzalwane lwesobunxele. Emuva e-Egypt, ukusabela okuyihlazo nokuyingozi kakhulu kwakungokuka-Tony Blair njengoba kubikiwe ku-CNN: ushintsho luyadingeka, kodwa kufanele kube uguquko oluzinzile. Ushintsho oluzinzile e-Egypt namuhla lungasho ukuvumelana kuphela namabutho e-Mubarak ngendlela yokwandisa umbuthano obusayo. Yingakho ukukhuluma ngoguquko olunokuthula manje kuyichilo: ngokushaya abaphikisi, uMubarak ngokwakhe wenza lokhu kungenzeki. Ngemva kokuba uMubarak ethumele ibutho ngokumelene nababhikishi, ukukhetha kwacaca: noma ushintsho lwezimonyo lapho okuthile kushintsha khona ukuze yonke into ihlale ifana, noma ikhefu langempela.
Nanku-ke umzuzu weqiniso: umuntu akanakusho, njengase-Algeria eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, ukuthi ukuvumela ukhetho olukhululekile ngempela kulingana nokuletha amandla kubalandeli benkolo bamaSulumane. Okunye okukhathazayo okukhululekile ukuthi awekho amandla epolitiki ahleliwe angathatha izintambo uma uMubarak ehamba. Yebo akukho; U-Mubarak wakunakekela lokho ngokunciphisa konke ukuphikiswa kwemihlobiso engasenani, ukuze umphumela ufane nesihloko senoveli edumile ye-Agatha Christie, Futhi Khona Bebengekho. Ingxabano kaMubarak - kungaba nguye noma isiphithiphithi - iyingxabano ephikisana naye.
Ubuzenzisi bama-liberal asentshonalanga buyamangalisa: basekela intando yeningi esidlangalaleni, futhi manje, lapho abantu bevukela omashiqela egameni lenkululeko yezwe kanye nobulungisa, hhayi egameni lenkolo, bonke bakhathazeke kakhulu. Kungani ukhathazeke, kungani ungajabuli ngokuthi inkululeko inikezwa ithuba? Namuhla, kunanini ngaphambili, isiqubulo esidala sikaMao Zedong sifanelekile: "Kunesiphithiphithi esikhulu ngaphansi kwezulu - isimo sihle kakhulu."
Ngabe uMubarak kufanele aye kuphi? Lapha, impendulo nayo icacile: eHague. Uma kukhona umholi okufanele ahlale lapho, kuba nguye.
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Nikela