I-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Iwashi Losuku Lwembubhiso isanda kumiswa kuya kumasekhondi angamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye kuya phakathi kwamabili, okusondele kakhulu ukuthi sekuphelile. Abahlaziyi ababeka iwashi bacaphuna izizathu ezimbili eziphawuleka kakhulu: usongo olukhulayo lwempi yenuzi nokwehluleka ukuthatha izinyathelo ezidingekayo zokuvimbela ukushisa kwembulunga yonke ukuba kufinyelele endaweni lapho kuyobe sekwephuze kakhulu, hhayi isimo esikude.
Singangeza isizathu sesithathu: ukuntula ukuqonda komphakathi ngokuphuthuma kwalezi zinhlekelele. Lokhu kuboniswa ngezithombe esikhathini sakamuva Ukuvota kwePew Research Center enikeze abaphenduli isethi yezindaba okufanele bazilinganise ngokulandelana kokuphuthuma. I-nuclear war ayizange ingene ohlwini. Ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kwabalwa eduze nokokugcina; phakathi kwamaRiphabhulikhi, ngamaphesenti ayi-13 kuphela athi ukunciphisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kufanele kube yinto eza kuqala.
Imiphumela yocwaningo, nakuba iyinhlekelele, ayimangazi, uma kubhekwa inkulumo ekhona. Impi yenuzi kukhulunywa ngayo ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa iphathwa ngokunganaki: Uma kwenzeka, kuthiwani? Kuncane ukuqaphela ukuthi impi yenuzi phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu icishe ibe isiphetho sayo yonke into.
Inkampani enkulu inkulumo-ze ecasulayo uye wafuna amashumi eminyaka ukuze alulaze ukukhathazeka ngenhlekelele yemvelo ezayo, uma kungenjalo ukuphika usongo ngokuphelele. Umqondo we-capitalism ongavinjelwe uhlanganisa ukuthi ukusinda kwezinhlobo zezilwane kudlula kude ukukhathazeka ngenzuzo nesabelo semakethe. Ngokukhula kwenzuzo yokuzibulala kwethu, izikhulu zikawoyela zishiya imizamo yazo elinganiselwe yokwengeza amandla asimeme kule ngxube.
Ngaphakathi kohlaka lwamanje lwesikhungo, ukukhetha okumele kwenziwe kunqunyelwe: ohulumeni kufanele bafumbathise labo abacekela phansi imvelo ukuze bayeke. Lokhu akuyona into entsha. Njengoba i-United States yayihlanganisa impi eminyakeni engamashumi ayisishiyagalombili edlule, ngaleso sikhathi uNobhala Wezempi uHenry Stimson wachaza: โUma uzozama ukuya empini, noma ukulungiselela impi, ezweni lonxiwankulu, kufanele uvumele ibhizinisi lenze imali ngale nqubo noma ibhizinisi ngeke lisebenze.โ
Ukungabi nangqondo kogibe lwesikhungo kucace ngokwanele. Kufana nohulumeni waseMexico ozama ukufumbathisa izinkampani zezidakamizwa ukuze ziyeke ukubulawa kwabantu abaningi. Akukhona ukuthi ezinye izindlela ziyashoda; bamane bangaphandle kohlaka lwemfundiso yenkoloโokwamanje, okungenani.
I-orthodoxy yezimfundiso ibhalisa ezinye izimpumelelo ezihlaba umxhwele. NgoFebhuwari noMashi 2023 kuphawula iminyaka emibili ebalulekile: isikhumbuzo seminyaka engamashumi amabili sokuhlasela kwe-US-UK e-Iraq, kanye nesikhumbuzo sokuqala sokuhlasela kweRussia i-Ukraine-zombili izibonelo ze "ubugebengu obuphakeme bamazwe ngamazweโ lolaka; okwesibili kubi ngokwanele, nakuba kungasondeli esokuqala ngokwethuka, nganoma yisiphi isilinganiso esinengqondo.
Impi yase-Iraq ayizange idlule ngaphandle kokugxekwa, ngaphakathi kwemingcele emincane yezimfundiso. Cishe akunakwenzeka ukuthola ukugxekwa enkulumweni evamile ehamba ngale kokuthi โBekuyiphutha lamasuโโngokwesibonelo, uBarack Obama, i-echoed Izikhulu zaseRussia ezimelene nokuhlasela kwe-Afghanistan ngezizathu ezifanayo.
Akukhona ukuthi ezinye izindlela ziyashoda; bamane bangaphandle kohlaka lwemfundiso yenkoloโokwamanje, okungenani.
Impi yakhiwe kabusha njengomsebenzi womusa wokuhlenga ama-Iraqi ekubanjweni kukamashiqela omubi. Izingqondo ezincane kuphela ezikhumbulayo ukuthi ubugebengu obubi kakhulu bukaSaddam Hussein benziwa ngokusekelwa okuqinile kwe-US. Sehle saze safika lapho iHarvard University inconywa khona eqhuba inkulumo-mpikiswano mayelana nokuthi umkhankaso wase-Iraq ufanelekile yini njengokungenelela kosizo lwabantu. Lowo owayengumqondisi ngaleso sikhathi weCarr Center for Human Rights Policy, uMichael Ignatieff, wavuma. Izingqondo ezincane, futhi, zingase zibuze ukuthi singasabela kanjani ekusebenzeni okunjalo eMoscow State University.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Navy ine nje kumemezela umkhumbi omusha wokuhlasela we-amphibious: i-USS Fallujah, oqanjwe ukukhumbula ubugebengu obubi kakhulu bokuhlasela. Abanye abakutholi kuhlekisa lokhoโngokwesibonelo, ama-Iraqi.
Intatheli uNabil Salih ubhala ukuthi โubudlova base-US abuzange bupheleโ ngokubulawa kwabantu abaningi kwabesifazane nezingane kanye โnokuthela i-Fallujah nge-uranium ephelile ne-phosphorus emhlophe . . . . Ngemva kweminyaka engamashumi amabili kanye nezinkinga zokuzalwa ezingenakubalwa kamuva, i-US Navy iqamba omunye wemikhumbi yayo yempi ngokuthi USS Fallujah . . . . Ngale ndlela uMbuso WaseMelika uqhubeka nempi yawo ngokumelene nama-Iraqis. Igama lika-Fallujah, elifakwe i-phosphorus emhlophe efakwe ezibelethweni zomama izizukulwane ngezizukulwane, liyimpango yempi, futhi. . . . Okusele wukungabikhona kwamalungu omkhaya okuxakayo, amakhaya aqhunyiswa ngamabhomu angabibikho, nezithombe zishiswe nobuso obumamathekayo. Esikhundleni salokho, uhlelo olukhohlakele oluyingozi lokudlelana ngamaqembu ahlukene ngokweba salushiyelwa yizigebengu zempi ezingajeziswanga zase-Downing Street naseBeltway.โ
IZizwe Ezihlangene ziqopha ukufa kwabantu abangaba ngu-7,000 e-Ukraine, okuwukubukelwa phansi okukhulu. Uma siphindaphinda ngamashumi amathathu, sizofinyelela inani likaMongameli wangaphambili u-Ronald Reagan wase-Central America Ubugebengu obuhambisana. I-Iraq ngeke ifinyeleleke, ingasaphathwa eyezimpi zase-US ezweni eliseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, okuyikilasi ngokwalo ngesikhathi sangemva kweMpi Yezwe II, futhi elingenawo ukugxekwa okuvamile ngale kwegama elithi โiphutha.โ
Ubugebengu obuphakeme bamazwe ngamazwe abunakwa e-Ukraine. I-European Union isabela kahle esibizweni sokuthi inkantolo yamazwe ngamazwe ibambe ubuholi obuphezulu โngecala lobudlova,โ isikhulu saseYurophu esihilelekile ezinhlelweni. utshele I-Intercept. Ukhuluma โngesidingo sokuziphatha, sezombangazwe, kanye nesomthetho sokubamba ubuholi obuphezulu baseRussia buphendule ngecala lobudlova e-Ukraine.โ Inxusa loMnyango Wezwe LaseMelika elibhekele ubulungiswa bobugebengu emhlabeni wonke, uBeth Van Schaack, usisekela ngokuqinile lesi sizathu esihle, echaza ukuthi kufanelekile ukusho i-Ukraine: โIqiniso liwukuthi ubudlova baseRussia bukhulu kakhulu, bucacile futhi bucacile. ngokusobala ukwephulwa komthethosisekelo we-UN. Futhi ukuziphatha kwempi kuhluke kakhulu kunoma yini esiyibonile ngempela kusukela ngeMpi Yezwe II.โ
Singase sikhumbule eka-Harold Pinter Ikheli likaNobel Literature Prize:
Akukaze kwenzeke. Akukaze kwenzeke lutho. Nangesikhathi kwenzeka kwakungenzeki. Kwakungenandaba. Yayingenasithakazelo. Ubugebengu base-United States bebuhlelekile, buhlala bunonya, bungenasici, kodwa bambalwa kakhulu abantu abake bakhuluma ngabo. Kufanele uyinikeze eMelika. Isebenzise amandla okukhohlisa emhlabeni wonke ngenkathi izenza amandla okwenza okuhle emhlabeni jikelele. Kuyisenzo esihlakaniphile, esihlakaniphile, esiphumelele kakhulu sokulutha.
I-United States imane ilandela umbhalo wabanduleli bayo abanonya odlameni lwasebukhosiniโihlala ichichima ukulunga njengoba iqothula izihluku ukuze kube nenzuzo enkulu.
Akulungile kancane lokho. Akukho "okuhlukile kweMelika." I-United States imane ilandela umbhalo wabanduleli bayo abanonya odlameni lwasebukhosiniโihlala ichichima ukulunga njengoba iqothula izihluku ukuze kube nenzuzo enkulu.
I-Ukraine iyacekelwa phansi njengoba iRussia iphendukela kancane kwisitayela sempi sase-US-UK esithi "Shock and Awe": ibhubhisa ngokushesha noma yini evumela umphakathi ukuthi usebenze. Ubugebengu bufinyelela kude kakhulu: Izigidi zibhekene nendlala njengoba imithombo yesifunda soLwandle Olumnyama incishwa kakhulu. I-Europe, nayo, ihlupheka kakhulu, mhlawumbe isibheke ekuncipheni kwezimboni ezilinganiselwe njengoba inqanyulwa kubalingani bayo abahweba ngemvelo abanothe ngezinsiza ukuya empumalanga. Usongo lokubhebhetheka kwempi yenuzi luyaqina. Mhlawumbe okubi kunakho konke, mayelana nemiphumela yesikhathi eside, imizamo encane yokubhekana nokushisa komhlaba ibuyiselwe emuva kakhulu.
Abanye benza kahle. Amasosha ase-US kanye nezimboni zikaphethiloli ezimbiwa phansi zicwila enzuzweni, ngamathemba amakhulu emishini yazo yokubhubhisa eminyakeni eminingi ezayo. Ngengxenyana encane yesabelomali sayo esikhulu sezempi, i-United States ilulaza kakhulu amabutho esitha esikhulu sezempi. Esimeni sezwe, ubudlova buka-Vladimir Putin bobugebengu bunikeze i-United States isifiso sayo esikhulu: ukushayela iYurophu ijule ohlelweni olusekelwe e-NATO olusekelwe e-US.
Umbuzo omkhulu phakathi nenkathi yangemva kwempi bekuwukuthi iYurophu izothatha inkambo yokuzimela, mhlawumbe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi I-Gaulist imigqa noma ngokwemibandela kaWilly Brandt Ostpolitik. Umbuzo waphakama kakhulu lapho iSoviet Union iwa nowayenguMongameli uMikhail Gorbachev kubizwe โikhaya elivamile laseYurophuโ elisuka e-Lisbon liya e-Vladivostok, elingenabudlelwane bezempi futhi liqhubekela kuntando yeningi yezenhlalo. Owake waba nguMongameli wase-US uBill Clinton wabukela phansi lolo songo ngokuhoxisa isithembiso sikaMongameli wangaphambili uGeorge HW Bush esicacile nesicacile sokuthi i-NATO ngeke inwebe empumalanga uma uGorbachev evuma ukuvumela iJalimane ebumbene ukuthi ijoyine i-NATOโimvume impela uma kubhekwa umlando. Kube nokuhlanekezela okuningi ngale ndaba kangangokuthi kufanelekile ukuhlola imibhalo yokuqala, kalula kuyatholakala kusizindalwazi se-National Security Archive.
Izinga eliphakeme kakhulu lamanxusa ase-US, cishe zonke izazi-mlando, kanye nabahlaziyi bezepolitiki abaqavile baxwayise ngokuthi ukwanda kwe-NATO emingceleni yaseRussia kwakubudedengu futhi kuvusa inkanukoโikakhulukazi isimemo saseGeorgia ne-Ukraine sokujoyina umfelandawonye wezempi waseWashingtonโakusizi. Manje iWashington isiphunyukile ekukhathazekeni kokulahlekelwa ukulawula iYurophu, okungenani okwesikhashana.
I-NATO selokhu yandise ithonya layo esifundeni sase-Indo-Pacific ukuze "izungeze" i-China, ngamagama asemthethweni. IYurophu idonselwa emkhankasweni wase-US wokuvimbela ukuthuthukiswa kwezobuchwepheshe kweShayina, ngezindleko ezinzima ezimbonini ezithuthukile zaseYurophu ekukhiqizeni ama-chip, umnyombo wemboni yesimanje; ISouth Korea neJapan nazo zinjalo. Lezi ezinye izinyathelo ekuwohlokeni komhlaba wezimboni zaseNtshonalanga osondela eWashington, kuyilapho i-United States ifuna ukusekela ukubusa kwayo emhlabeni wonke okufiphalayo. Okwamanje, i-United States ayinikezi ngezinhlelo ezinhle zomhlaba ngaphandle kwemisho yokukhonza edala inhlekisa ngaphandle kwebhamuza laseNtshonalanga. Uhlelo oluyinhloko lwaseWashington luvimbela izitha ukuthi zithuthuke ngokuzimela.
I-China ayidikibali. Iyaqhubeka nokwandisa izinhlelo zayo zokubolekwa kwemali nentuthuko ngokusebenzisa i-Eurasia, idlulele naseMpumalanga Ephakathi, e-Afrika, ngisho naseLatin America, okuze kube nzima kakhulu eWashington.
Umhlaba ongaphandle kwe-Anglosphere kanye ne-Western Europe ubungazimisele ukujoyina lokho abaningi abakubona njengempi yommeleli wase-US-Russia elwiwa nemizimba yase-Ukraine. Imifelandawonye emisha iyakhiwa, kanye nokusebenzisana kwezohwebo kanye nezinhlelo zezezimali ezintsha ezingancikile e-United States kanye nokuziphindiselela kwayo okuqinile ngokujeziswa nangezinye izindlela.
Khonamanjalo, izinsiza eziyivelakancane ezidingeka kakhulu ukuze kusingelwe umhlaba ophilayo, nokudala ongcono kakhulu, zimosheka ngokucekelwa phansi nokucekwa, nokuhlelelwa izinhlekelele ezinkulu nakakhulu.
Imizuzwana engamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye ingase ibe ukulinganisa okuhle kakhulu, ngaphandle uma labo abafuna ukusindisa umhlaba ezingozini ezimbi kakhulu benza ngokushesha, ngokuqinile, nangokunquma.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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