Yebo, i I-Doomsday Clock ilokhu inyakaza - manje sekuyimizuzwana engama-90 ukuya phakathi kwamabili, ngokusho kombiko I-Bulletin ye-Atomic Scientists - kodwa ibhomu lesikhathi sokugcina alikutholi ukunakwa okufanele. Ngisho noma kungenzeka ukuqothulwa kwezikhali zenuzi kuseduze, izimpawu eziningi eziyisixwayiso zaleli khulu leminyaka zisesesimweni sikaCassandras.
Omongameli uGeorge W. Bush kanye noDonald Trump bahoxise i-United States ezivumelwaneni ezibalulekile phakathi kwe-US neRussia, amazwe amabili anamandla enuzi, avala izikhali zenuzi. I-Anti-Ballistic Missile, Vula Isibhakabhaka, futhi Amabutho Enuzi Ebanga Eliphakathi izivumelwano. Futhi naphezu kokuthembisa okunye, oMongameli uBarack Obama noJoe Biden abenzi lutho ukubavuselela.
Ngaphansi kwegama elithi "isimanjemanje," uhulumeni waseMelika, i-thermonuclear colossus, wachitha. $ 51 billion ngonyaka odlule uwodwa ukuvuselela kanye nokugcina izikhali zenuzi, kwathola umfutho ohlelweni oluzoqhubeka emashumini eminyaka ezayo. "Ukwenza isimanje nokugcina izimpi zenuzi kanye nengqalasizinda yamanje kulinganiselwa ukuthi kubiza ama- $ 1.7 trillion ngonyaka Wezimali ka-2046," ihhovisi likaSenator Edward Markey (D-MA) wabonisa, โyize iHhovisi Lesabelomali Se-Congressional lilindele ukuthi ukwenziwa kwesimanjemanje kwezikhali zenuzi kuzobiza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-494 ngoNyaka Wezimali ka-2028.โ
Izibalo ezinjalo ezikhukhumele zingase zibonise impikiswano enhle ngokumelene nezinhlelo zezikhali ezithile, kodwa uMalume uSam unezikhwama ezijulile ngokumangalisayo zezikhali zenuzi kanye noxhaxha lwezinye izimpi zezempi. Eqinisweni, uma kuqhathaniswa nezindleko zokuthumela inqwaba yamasosha, izikhali zenuzi zingabonakala zicishe zonga. Futhi cabangela intengo emangalisayo yesithwali sendiza esisodwa esiqale ukusebenza ngo-2017, the Gerald R. Ford: $13.3 billion.
Ukweba okukhulu kwezempi esintwini sekudlule isikhathi eside, njengoba uMongameli uDwight D. Eisenhower kwacaca enkulumweni yango-1953:
โZonke izibhamu ezenziwayo, yonke imikhumbi yempi eqhunyiswayo, wonke amarokhethi adubulayo asho, ekugcineni, ukwebiwa kwalabo abalambile nabangondliwa, labo ababandayo nabangagqokile. Lo mhlaba wezikhali awuchithi imali wodwa. Ichitha izithukuthuku zezisebenzi zayo, ubuhlakani bososayensi bayo, amathemba ezingane zayoโฆ Lena akuyona neze indlela yokuphila, nganoma yimuphi umqondo weqiniso. Ngaphansi kwefu lempi esongelayo, isintu silenga esiphambanweni sensimbi.โ
I-Nuclear Complex kanye ne "Crackpot Realism"
Endabeni yesabelomali sezikhali zenuzi, amathegi entengo amakhulu - ngomqondo ophelele ongacatshangwa - omaka bokujaha okuqhubekayo, okuhlelekile, okuqondile i-omnicide, ukubhujiswa kwezinhlobo zabantu. Khonamanjalo, okudluliswayo engxoxweni ngeCapitol Hill ngokuvamile kuwumsebenzi wenkulumo ye-eyeshade eluhlaza, ukuhlola ukuphuma okungabizi kakhulu ukuze kube lula i-Armagedoni, kunokuba kuxoxwe ngobuhlakani bokugcina nokukhulisa umjaho wezikhali zenuzi kwasekuqaleni.
Thatha, isibonelo, izindaba zakamuva mayelana nezindleko ze-ballyhooed Isistimu ye-missile yase-Sentinel esekelwe emhlabeni, emabhodini okudweba ukuze athathele indawo imicibisholo ecitshwayo ye-intercontinental ballistic (ICBMs) ekhona eziseleni ezingaphansi komhlaba ezingu-400 eziseColorado, e-Montana, e-Nebraska, eNyakatho Dakota, nase-Wyoming. INorthrop Grumman isivele ifake ephaketheni inkontileka ka-$13.3 billion ukuze iqale ukuqhubekisela phambili umsebenzi. Kepha izindleko bezilokhu zikhuphuka ngokushesha okukhulu kangangokuba zikhala izinsimbi ze-alamu kuCongress, okuphoqa ukuthi kuhlolwe kabusha.
"Uhlelo olusha lwe-US Air Force lwe-intercontinental ballistic ballistic missile lusengcupheni yokudlula isilinganiso salo sokuqala sezindleko zamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-96 kangangokuthi ukugcwala kungase kubangele isibuyekezo sokuthi uzowunqamula yini umsebenzi," Bloomberg News. kubika maphakathi no-December. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, ukukhuphuka okulinganiselwe kuye kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka. Ngenyanga edlule, uNorthrop Grumman udalule ukuthi izindleko ze-missile ngayinye zohlelo zikhuphuke "okungenani ngamaphesenti angama-37," zafinyelela ku-$ 162 million - futhi, njengeBreaking Defense. kuphawulwe, UNobhala Wezokuvikela u-Lloyd Austin uzodinga "ukuqinisekisa uhlelo ukuze anqande ukwesulwa kwalo."
Kwelinye izinga, ukukhanselwa kuzoqinisekisa indlela eyathathwa amaqembu agxile ekulahlekisweni kwezikhali eminyakeni embalwa edlule lapho ezama ukumisa ukwakhiwa kweSentinel ngokuphikisana ngokuthi kuzoba โumcibisholo womgodi wemali.โ Kodwa ezingeni elijulile, ukuphikisana kwezindleko - nakuba engase abe owinile ekuvimbeni i-Sentinel - uyahluleka uma kuziwa ekwehliseni izingozi zempi yenuzi, i-ICBMs eyithuthukisa ngokukhethekile njengengxenye esekelwe emhlabeni yochungechunge lwenuzi yalesi sizwe.
Njengoba uDaniel Ellsberg kanye nami wabhala ku- Nation ngo-2021, "Uma ukunciphisa izingozi zempi yenuzi kuwumgomo, okuhamba phambili kufanele kube ukususa umlenze osekelwe phansi we-triad - hhayi ukuwenza ube yisimanje." Ukuqeda ama-ICBM kungaba yisinyathelo esibalulekile uma kufikwa ekunciphiseni lezo zingozi, ngoba โngokungafani nezikhali zenuzi ezihamba ngaphansi kwamanzi noma amabhomu, imicibisholo ecitshwayo esezweni isengozini yokuhlaselwa futhi ingase yethule umkhuzi omkhulu ngokuzisebenzisa-noma ngokuzumayo. -lahlekelwa ukukhetha kwabo. " Kungakho ama-ICBM asesixwayisini sokuqhumisa izinwele futhi kungani ukwehlula i-Sentinel kungaba ukunqoba kwe-Pyrrhic ngempela uma isidingo okuhloswe ngaso semicibisholo enjalo esekelwe emhlabathini siqinisekiswa futhi kule nqubo.
Ngokombono, ukuvimba i-Sentinel ngokuyichaza njengebiza kakhulu kungaba isinyathelo sokuvala ama-ICBM ngokuphelele. Empeleni, ngeshwa, ukungqubuzana kwezindleko ngokuvamile kuholele ekugcizeleleni ukuthi ama-ICBM amanje e-Minuteman III angavele athuthukiswe futhi aqhubeke nokusebenza ngokufanayo - kuphela okuqinisa ukucabanga ukuthi ama-ICBM ayadingeka kwasekuqaleni.
Umbhali wocwaningo lwe-Pathbreaking 2022 "Izindleko Zangempela zama-ICBM,โ u-Emma Claire Foley, manje usenguzakwethu naye RootsAction.org, lapho exhumanisa khona Nciphisa Impi Yenuzi entsha yomfelandawonye umkhankaso wokuqeda ama-ICBM. โIzindaba zokweqa kwezindleko ezimangazayo ohlelweni lweSentinel azimangazi, kodwa angicabangi ukuthi kufanele kukhuthaze abagqugquzeli bokwehliswa kwezikhali,โ ungitshele muva nje. โUkukhanselwa kohlelo lweSentinel akufani nokuncipha kwenani lezikhali zenuzi, noma ingozi yempi yenuzi. Kuzothatha inhlangano ehlelekile yokwenza leli thuba ukuze kuncishiswe ingozi yempi yenuzi.โ
Ingxabano equbukayo kabusha ye-ICBM ingesinye isibonelo esisezingeni eliphezulu sohlobo lwesibhamu abagqugquzeli bokuncishiswa kwezikhali abahlale bebhekana naso eWashington esemthethweni, lapho ukwethula ukuhlaziya okusekelwe ekuhlakanipheni kucishe kubhekwe โnjengengelona iqiniso.โ Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma kukhulunywa ngezindaba zenuzi, kuvunyelwana ngokuthi โcrackpot realismโ kuwumbandela wokuthi uthathwe ngokungathi sรญna abaguquli nabanyakazayo eCapitol Hill nasegatsheni lesigungu.
Ukuhlaliswa okunjalo kuhilela ukulungisa ubukhulu bokusangana kwesistimu cishe okungaphezu kokuqonda. Abagqugquzeli bokwehliswa kwezikhali bavame ukubhekana nokukhetha okungasho lutho phakathi kokubonakala kungenandaba nobupristi benuzi kanye nabalandeli babo noma ukuphishekela izinguquko ezincane kulokho uDaniel Ellsberg, esihlokweni sencwadi yakhe yokugcina eyingqopha, abizwa ngokunembe kakhulu. Umshini we-Doomsday.
Amaqembu akuleli zwe amelene nezikhali zenuzi kanye nokuncishiswa kwezikhali anemithombo yezindaba evamile. Futhi lapho bekhuluma ngokungananazi ekuphonseni inselelo ngokuqondile ukunganaki kukahulumeni okunganqamuki - ngemiphumela engabandakanya izigidigidi zokufa kwabantu abavela "ubusika benyukliyaโ โ ukuncipha kokufinyelela kwemidiya abangakwazi ukukuthola. Lapho uMongameli Biden reneged esithembisweni sakhe somkhankaso ka-2020 sokwamukela inqubomgomo yokungaqali ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi, ngokwesibonelo, ukubuyisela emuva okubucayi kwabezindaba bekukuncane futhi kudlula ngokushesha. Ukusabalala kwezindaba okuncane kwenzeka lapho idlanzana lamalungu eCongress liphuma endleleni yalo ukuphikisa.
โNgeshwa,โ uMarkey wathi enkulumweni eyayisesitezi seSigele eminyakeni emibili edlule, โintando yeningi yethu yaseMelika kanye nombuso wentando yeningi waseRussia kuhlanganyela ngento eyodwa enkulu efanayo: Zombili izinhlelo zethu zinikeza omongameli base-United States nowabaseRussia amandla afana nonkulunkulu aziwa njengegunya elilodwa lokuqeda ukuphila emhlabeni njengegunya eliwukuphela kwalo lokuqeda ukuphila emhlabeni. siyakwazi ngokuyalela isiteleka sokuqala senuzi.โ
I-Nuclear Madness kanye ne-Psychic Numbing
Noma isiphi isiteleka sokuqala senuzi kungenzeka siholele empini yenuzi esikalini esigcwele. Futhi isayensi icacile ukuthi "ubusika benyukliyaโ izolandela ngempela - ku-Ellsberg's amagama, โukubulala isivuno emhlabeni wonke futhi kubulawe indlala cishe wonke umuntu emhlabeni. Cishe bekungeke kubangele ukushabalala. Siyavumelana nezimo. Mhlawumbe i-1% yenani lethu labantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.4 lingasinda, kodwa u-98% noma u-99% ngeke uphile.โ
Ukwehla okunjalo emazingeni okushisa amaplanethi kungadlula lokho okubikezelwe okubi kakhulu kwemiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ngisho noma ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuhambisana nezinga lokushisa. Kodwa abaholi benhlangano yesimo sezulu abavamile ngisho nokusho amandla ezikhali zenuzi zokucekela phansi isimo sezulu seplanethi ngendlela ehlukile kunokufudumala komhlaba. Lokho kweqiwa kukhombisa ukunqoba okuqhubekayo kohlanya lwenuzi kanye โukubamba kwengqondoโ okuhambisana nayo.
Esikhathini esingaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yekhulu kusukela ngo-Agasti 1945, lapho uhulumeni wase-US ephonsa amabhomu e-athomu e-Hiroshima naseNagasaki, i-nuclear genie yeqa ebhodleleni yaya kwamanye amazwe ayisishiyagalombili - iRussia, iFrance, i-United Kingdom, i-China, i-Pakistan. , i-India, i-Israel, neNyakatho Korea - zonke manje seziveza ezazo izikhali zokucekela phansi okukhulu. Futhi imibuso emikhulu yenuzi ibilokhu ibukela phansi Isivumelwano sokungakhushulwa kwezikhali ze-Nuclear.
Amandla abalulekile awashintshile kusukela, ngo-2006, i-Center for International Governance Innovation yashicilela ukuhlaziya okucacile okwathi. waphetha: โIYurophu neNyakatho Melika zimatasatasa zilwela izikhali zenuzi njengecilongo lokugcina lokuvikeleka kanye nophawu oluvelele lwethonya lezombangazwe, ngaleyo ndlela kwakha umongo wezombangazwe/wokuvikeleka oya ngokuya uphikisana nokungasabalala.โ
NjengoBarack Obama ngaphambi kwakhe, uJoe Biden uthembise izinguquko ebezidingeka kakhulu kuzinqubomgomo zenuzi ngesikhathi sokuzama kwakhe ukunqoba i-White House, kodwa esengene esikhundleni - njengezithembiso zika-Obama - lezo zifungo ezikhuthazayo zaphenduka intuthu engaka. Abaphathi okudala balindelwe Ukubuyekezwa Kwesimo Senuzi (NPR), eyakhishwa ngo-Okthoba 2022, yayiwumthamo ojwayelekile wobuhlanya benuzi. "Yize uJoe Biden emkhankasweni wakhe wokhetho lukamongameli wakhuluma kakhulu ekuvuneni kwezinqubomgomo zokungasebenzisi kuqala nezinjongo zodwa, i-NPR ikwenqaba ngokusobala zombili zombili okwamanje," i-Federation of American Scientists. wakhala. โNgokokulawulwa kwezikhali kanye nombono wokunciphisa ubungozi, i-NPR iyadumala. Imizamo yangaphambilini yokunciphisa izikhali zenuzi kanye nendima edlalwa izikhali zenuzi iye yanqotshwa ukuncintisana kwamasu okuvuselelwe phesheya kanye nokuphikiswa koklebe bezokuvikela ekhaya.โ
Bethonywe abaphathi be-Biden kanye neCongress, izinhlangano eziningi nezishoshovu ezisebenza ezindabeni zezikhali zenuzi zakhuthazwa ifilimu ye-blockbuster. I-Oppenheimer, khuthazwa kusukela ekuqaleni njengomculi odumile ngo-โJ. URobert Oppenheimer, indoda eyindida okufanele ibeke engcupheni yokucekela phansi umhlaba ukuze iwusindise. โ Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokukhishwa kwefilimu ngoJulayi odlule, izishoshovu zazilungiselela ukuyisebenzisa njengesisekelo sengxoxo ebanzi yomphakathi ngezikhali zenuzi. Ifilimu ngempela yenze omkhulu umsindo futhi yavusa ingxoxo yomphakathi eminingi ngama-nukes e-United States kunalokho okwake kwenzeka emashumini eminyaka. Ifilimu yayinamanani amangalisayo okukhiqiza. Ngeshwa, izindinganiso zayo zobuntu bezingathandeki kangako, ikakhulukazi njengoba abantu bethola ubuhlakani besayensi eLos Alamos eHiroshima naseNagasaki (kanye ngisho nama-downwinders eNew Mexico) ihlale ingaphandle kwesikrini.
Lapho ngibuka ifilimu, ngacabanga ngokuvakashela kwami โโeLabhorethri Kazwelonke yase-Los Alamos cishe eminyakeni engama-60 ngemva kokuhlolwa okunqobayo kwe-athomu kaZiqu-zintathu. Ngesikhathi senhlolokhono, omunye wochwepheshe bezokuxhumana nomphakathi lapho wachaza ukuthi inhlangano esemthethweni ephethe ilebhu yase-Los Alamos "iyinhlangano enesibopho esilinganiselwe." Lokho kwabonakala kufingqa ukuntula kukahulumeni wethu isibindi sokuziphendulela ngokusungulwa kweplanethi yethu yenuzi.
Ngemva kwezinyanga eziyisithupha I-Oppenheimer ifike kuma-multiplex, umthelela wayo wezepolitiki ubonakala usondele ku-zero. Izici eziphazamisayo zefilimu zalimala phansi, kodwa - ngaphandle komnyakazo onamandla wokukhishwa kwezikhali noma ubuholi obusebenzayo phakathi kwezikhulu zaseWashington mayelana nezindaba zezikhali zenuzi - kuncane ukutshala okwenziwe.
Ekupheleni kukaJanuwari, abalandeli bagubhe iminyaka yokuqala H. Res. 77, umthethosivivinywa oxhaswe uMmeleli uJim McGovern waseMassachusetts futhi oxhaswe amanye amalungu angu-42 eNdlu, โokwamukela imigomo nezinhlinzeko zeSivumelwano Sokuvinjelwa Kwezikhali Zenuzi.โ Isinyathelo esingabophi sifingqa ngokufanelekile ingozi yezikhali zenuzi emhlabeni futhi sinikeza izincomo ezibalulekile, siqala ngekhwelo lokuthi i-United States ilandele ngenkuthalo futhi iphothule โizingxoxo mayelana nesivumelwano esisha, samazwe amabili sokulawula izikhali zenuzi kanye nohlaka lohlaka lokuncishiswa kwezikhali neRussian Federationโ kanye nokunenjongo. izingxoxo "neChina nezinye izifundazwe ezihlome ngezikhali zenuzi."
Izincomo eziqondile kulo mthethosivivinywa zihlanganisa: โukulahla inketho yokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi kuqala; ukuqeda igunya likaMongameli yedwa lokuhlasela ngezikhali zenuzi; ukususa izikhali zenuzi zase-United States ekuxwayiseni kokudubula izinwele; nokuhoxisa uhlelo lokubuyisela izikhali zenuzi zase-United States ngezikhali zesimanje nezithuthukisiwe.โ
Iqiniso lokuthi amalungu eNdlu angu-10% kuphela aze akhetha ukuxhasa isinqumo libonisa ukuthi kufanele sihambe ibanga elingakanani ukuze siqale ukubeka amabhuleki emncintiswaneni wezikhali zenuzi osongela ukucekela phansi - ngempela - yonke into.
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