Uma kubhekwa ingozi yokuqubuka kwezikhali zenuzi, ingabe inhlangano yokuthula kufanele ifune - njengoba abanye beye basikisela - ukuthi i-United States ne-NATO bayeke ukunikeza i-Ukraine izikhali njengendlela yokugwema ukucasula iRussia?

Impi yenuzi - kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nezifo eziwubhadane - imele enye yezinkinga sikhona izinsongo ebhekene nazo ubuntu. Ikusasa lezinhlobo zethu zezilwane lingaqedwa uma kuba nempi yenuzi egcwele.

Uma kubhekwa izinkinga, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuvimbela ukungqubuzana kwezikhali zenuzi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngenxa yokuthi ukuhwebelana ngezikhali zenuzi okulinganiselwe phakathi kwemibuso emikhulu kunamandla okudlondlobala kube impi engapheli, ukugwema ngisho nokuhwebelana okulinganiselwe kumelwe kube yinto eza kuqala.

Ngenkathi u-Putin eqala ukuhlasela kwakhe e-Ukraine ngo-Feb. 24, 2022, wakhipha umlayezo owawuqoshwe ngaphambili owawuthi. waxwayiswa:

Noma ngubani ozama ukusiphazamisa, futhi ngisho nangaphezulu ukudala izinsongo ezweni lakithi, kubantu bakithi, kufanele azi ukuthi impendulo yaseRussia izoba ngokushesha futhi izokuholela emiphumeleni enjalo ongakaze ube nayo emlandweni wakho.

Kwathi ezinsukwini ezintathu kamuva, uPutin wakubeka kwacaca usongo lwakhe, ememezela:

"Ngiyalela ungqongqoshe wezokuvikela kanye nenduna yebutho jikelele lamasosha aseRussia ukuthi babeke amabutho avimba impi yaseRussia endaweni ekhethekile yempi."

"Amazwe aseNtshonalanga awagcini nje ngokuthatha izinyathelo zezomnotho ezingenabungane ngokumelene nezwe lethu, kodwa abaholi bamazwe amakhulu e-NATO bakhuluma amazwi anonya ngezwe lethu," uPutin. wathi. Ngakho ngiyala ukuba ngithuthele amasosha aseRussia avimbe izikhali ngiwayise embusweni okhethekile.”

US izikhulu kubika ukuthi ababonanga zimpawu zokuthi empeleni iMoscow yayihlela ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi nokuthi kwakungeke kube khona ushintsho ekumeni kwamabutho enuzi ase-US. Kodwa ngokuqinisekile umuntu angaqonda ukuthi kungani 141 izizwe e Umhlangano Jikelele, ngokumelene namavoti amahlanu kuphela aphikisayo, akazange nje asole ukuhlasela kweRussia i-Ukraine kodwa wasilahla ngokuqondile “isinqumo seNhlangano YaseRussia sokwandisa ukulungela kwamabutho ayo enuzi.”

Isonto ngaphambi kokuhlasela, ngesikhathi iMoscow isagcizelela ukuthi yayingenazo izinhlelo zokuhlasela i-Ukraine, iKremlin. kumemezela ukuthi izokwenza izivivinyo zamandla ayo enuzi nokuthi uPutin uzoqondisa umkhuba wokuqhunyiswa kwemicibisholo ngokwakhe. Ezinyangeni ezimbili kamuva, ngo-Ephreli 20, iRussia yahlola umcibisholo omusha othatha ibanga elide, ngesaziso esifanele, kodwa futhi nangoPutin. uxwayisaukuthi lokhu kufanele “kwenze labo, abathi ngenxa yokushisa kwezinkulumo ezinolaka abazama ukusongela izwe lethu, bacabange kabili.”

I-Russia yayikhiphe imihlahlandlela emisha yokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi emuva ngo-June 2020 Izimiso Eziyisisekelo ye-Russian Federation's State Policy in the Domain of Nuclear Deterrence yamemezela ukuthi iMoscow izosebenzisa izikhali zenuzi kuphela ezimweni lapho iRussia noma abasekeli bayo behlaselwa ngezikhali ezibhubhisayo noma lapho kwaba nokuhlasela okuvamile ngokumelene neRussia lapho “khona kanye umbuso usengozini.” Lokhu kubonakala kunemingcele, kodwa lapho uPutin icala ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwakhe e-Ukraine ukuthi inqubomgomo ye-United States kanye nabalingani bayo "ayiyona nje ingozi yangempela ezithakazelweni zethu kodwa nokuba khona kombuso wethu kanye nobukhosi bawo" - esinye sezimo ezivumela ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi. - imiphumela yayingathandeki.

Various Izikhulu zaseRussia kusukela lapho bathi iMoscow yayingenanhloso yokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi e-Ukraine nokuthi izikhali zenuzi azisebenzi esimweni sase-Ukraine. Ngo-August 5, isithunywa saseRussia eNhlanganweni Yezizwe usolwa njengezingenasisekelo izinsolo zokuthi iRussia yayisabisa ngokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi e-Ukraine. Kwakungenakwenzeka ukuthi iRussia ikwenze lokho, wathi, ngoba akukho kwezimo lapho imihlahlandlela yemfundiso yaseRussia eyayivumela ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi endabeni yase-Ukraine. Uphinde wachaza ukuthi isimemezelo sikaPutin sangomhla zingama-27 kuNhlolanja sokuthi ubeka amabutho enuzi aseRussia “emsebenzini okhethekile” akusho ukuthi uwabeka esicongweni, kodwa nje ukuthi kuzoba “nokuqapha okukhulu.” Konke lokhu bekuyizitatimende ezamukelekile, nakuba kunikezwe ukwesekwa kweMoscow okuqhubekayo ngezenzo zayo e-Ukraine, usongo nokukhathazeka kusekhona.

Izitshalo Zamandla Enuzi

Lesi sihloko sizogxila ekusongelweni kwempi yenuzi, kodwa kufanele kukhulunywe kafushane lapha mayelana nengozi evela ezikhungweni zokuphehla amandla enuzi. (Khumbula ukuthi ingozi embi kunazo zonke emhlabeni yesikhungo samandla enuzi yenzeka eChernobyl e-Ukraine ngo-1986.) Ukuhlasela kwamanje kweRussia kumelela okokuqala emlandweni wezwe ukuthi kube nempi ezungeze iziteshi zamandla enuzi, okokuqala ngqa isikhungo samandla enuzi sibe khona. babanjwe ngamandla, futhi okokuqala abasebenzi benziwe ukuthi baqhube imboni ebanjiwe bekhonjwe ngezibhamu.

NgoFebhuwari 24, abaseRussia bathatha izintambo zokulawula iChernobyl kanye nendawo engabaliwe eyizungezile. Ibhodi Lababusi be-International Atomic Energy Agency ulahlwe ukuthumba futhi yafuna ukuthi iRussia ihoxise ngokushesha. Vuliwe Mashi 4, amaRussia ahlasela futhi athatha indawo yesikhungo senuzi saseZaporizhzhia, ingxenye yemayela lesikwele endaweni, ngomcibisholo oshaya isakhiwo esakhiweni futhi uqale umlilo, kodwa ngaphandle kokulimaza ama-reactors. Amasosha aseRussia ahoxile eChernobyl ngoMashi 31, njengengxenye yokuhlehla kwawo okujwayelekile endaweni yaseKyiv, kodwa asala esitshalweni saseZaporizhzhia.

NgoJulayi, amasosha aseRussia aphendule lesi sitshalo saba yi- isizinda sezempi, futhi bayisebenzisa njengehawu njengoba bedubula izibhamu namarokhethi ngaphesheya komfula endaweni ephethwe e-Ukraine. Nikopol. Okunye ukudubula endaweni yezitshalo kwenzeke - ukuhlaselwa kwe-drone kumasosha aseRussia yi-Ukraine, isibonelo - namanye amarokhethi. I-Russia isola lokhu ku-Ukraine, kodwa abasebenzi bezitshalo kanye nochwepheshe abahlukahlukene abazimele cabanga ukuthi umlilo uvela kubantu baseRussia, okuhloswe ngokucophelela ukunqamula izintambo zikagesi zalesi sikhungo ukuya endaweni yase-Ukraine, okuyingxenye yengozi enkulu. Isu lesiRashiya yokunqamula ugesi e-Ukraine futhi uwuqondise kabusha endaweni elawulwa yiRussia. Ngokusobala noma yimuphi umsebenzi wezempi lapha uyingozi kakhulu. I-Ukraine, i-United States, lo EU, Kanye Unobhala-jikelele we-UN bonke bacele ukuthi kusungulwe indawo engasenampi ezungeze lesi sikhungo. I-Russia inakho wenqatshelwe ucingo. Kepha isekela likasihlalo woMkhandlu Wezokuphepha waseRussia, owayengumongameli uDmitry Medvedev, akazange aphuthelwe yithuba Ukukhishwa olunye usongo: “Masingakhohlwa ukuthi i-European Union nayo inezimboni zokuphehla amandla enuzi. Nezingozi zingenzeka nalapho.”

Ingozi yenuzi eZaporizhzhia ingaba yimbi, nokho hhayi cishe kubi njengenhlekelele yaseChernobyl ngenxa yomklamo wesimanje weZaporizhzhia. Nokho, akukho nokho okungaqhathaniswa nokulimala okuvela ngisho nokuqhuma kwezikhali zenuzi, esibuyela kukho manje.

Umlando Wezinsongo Zenuzi

Izinsongo zenuzi zinomlando omude, ongcolile ngeMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Njengocwaningo lweNqolobane Yokuvikeleka Kazwelonke engekho ngaphansi kukahulumeni kufingqiwe It,

Phakathi neminyaka yawo-1950 nasekuqaleni kwawo-1960, kwaba nenani elimangalisayo lezinhlekelele lapho abaholi base-US benza izinsongo, bagunyaza izikhali zenuzi ukuthi zisetshenziswe, futhi babeka amandla amaqhinga esimweni esiphezulu sokulungela. Ngenkathi amaSoviet enza izinsongo, isb, uSuez, ngo-1956, isimo sokusongelwa kwe-US sasinamandla kakhulu.

Ngo-1953, umyalo woMkhandlu Wezokuphepha Kazwelonke oyimfihlo limenyezelwe ukuthi “Uma kunezingxabano, i-United States izobheka izikhali zenuzi njengezitholakalayo ukuze zisetshenziswe njengezinye izikhali.” Ngo-1955, uPres. U-Eisenhower, ngokwengxenye ukukhuthaza umphakathi waseMelika ukuthi uqede ukufiphala kwawo mayelana nezikhali zenuzi, esidlangalaleni. kusho ukuthi wayengasiboni isizathu sokuthi “kungani kungafanele asetshenziswe njengoba nje ubungasebenzisa inhlamvu noma enye into.”

Nokho, ekugcineni, futhi ikakhulukazi ngemva kwenhlekelele ye-missile yaseCuba yango-1962, ngemva kokuba umhlaba usulunguze kwalasha, omongameli base-US. waqonda ukuthi izikhali zenuzi zazisesigabeni esihluke ngokuphelele kwesejwayelekile nokuthi ukusetshenziswa kwazo, ngokwamazwi kaJohn Kennedy, “kwakuyovula izwe elisha.” Bobabili abaholi base-US nabaseSoviet bazibamba kakhulu ezinsongweni zabo zenuzi futhi baphishekela izivumelwano zokulawula izikhali ukuze banciphise ubungozi bempi yenuzi. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, bekuyivelakancane ukuba umholi wezwe asabise ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi. Yebo, iNorth Korea inakho waxwayiswa yeziteleka zenuzi ezimelene ne-United States (ephelele ngamavidiyo abonisa iWashington DC noma iManhattan ephansi ivutha amalangabi). Futhi uDonald Trump ukwenzile bhaluzekile ukuthi: “INorth Korea ingcono kakhulu ukuthi ingaphinde yenze ezinye izinsongo e-United States. Bazobhekana nomlilo nolaka olungakaze lubonwe umhlaba.” Kepha ukuziphatha kwabo kwasegcekeni lesikole, noTrump tweeting ukuthi inkinobho yakhe yenukliya “yayinkulu kakhulu futhi inamandla kakhulu” kunoKim Jong-un, ngenkathi eyingane futhi enganaki, kwakungeyona into ekhathazayo njengokusabisa kukaPutin, okwenzeka esimweni sempi enkulu kunazo zonke eYurophu eminyakeni engamashumi ayisikhombisa edlule, lapho ukwanda okungaqondile. kuveza ingozi yangempela.

Eziningi Ochwepheshe babe evezwe ukukhathazeka ukuthi namuhla siseduze nempi yenuzi kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi kusukela ngesikhathi senhlekelele ye-missile yaseCuba.

Ukusabela Ezinsongweni Zenuzi

Uma sibuyela embuzweni wokuqala, ingabe inhlangano yokuthula kufanele ifune ukuthi i-United States ne-NATO bayeke ukuhlomisa i-Ukraine ukuze bagweme ukucasula iRussia? Ngezinye izikhathi kunengqondo ukuvumela umhlaseli ongenabulungisa uma imiphumela yokungakwenzi lokho ingase ibe ukuqothulwa. Uma isigebengu sikhomba isibhamu emakhanda ethu futhi sifuna ukuba silahle izikhali zethu, senza kanjalo ngokungabaza.

Yiqiniso, uPutin - ngokungafani ne-villain ecatshangelwayo - uyazi ukuthi akusona nje isitha sakhe esizobhekana nemiphumela uma edonsa isibhamu. NgoJuni 2021, uPutin wajoyina iBiden qinisekisa kabusha“Isimiso sokuthi impi yenuzi ayinakunqotshwa futhi akumelwe neze ilwe.” Kodwa ingabe uPutin angahlanya ngokwanele ukuthi aqale impi yenuzi ezobhubhisa neRussia? Futhi ingabe lokho kusho ukuthi ngisho nethuba elikude lempi yenuzi lidinga ukuthi sivumelane nezimfuno zikaPutin zokuyeka ukuhlomisa i-Ukraine noma ukubeka unswinyo?

Inkinga yokuvumela izimfuno zikaPutin ukuthi ukwenza lokho akuyona indlela engcono kakhulu yokunciphisa ubungozi bempi yenuzi. Ngenxa yokuthi umholi ophusile wayengeke enze umgomo ozindleko zawo zingaphezu kwezinzuzo, ngezinye izikhathi abaholi benza iphutha, benza sengathi bazimisele ukubhekana nezindleko ezinkulu kakhulu kunalokho obekuvunyelwe ukuze basabise izitha zabo ukuze zizinikele. Nokho, ukuzinikela lapha kungandisa amathuba empi yenuzi eya phambili.

Omunye wabagqugquzeli abaphambili balelisu le-nuclear bluffing kwakunguRichard Nixon. Njengoba yena wachaza ukukhuluma kwakhe nomphathi wakhe we-White House u-HR Haldeman,

Ngiyibiza ngokuthi i-Madman Theory, u-Bob. Ngifuna abaseNyakatho neVietnam bakholwe ukuthi sengifinyelele lapho ngingenza noma yini ukumisa impi. Sizovele sishelele izwi kubo ukuthi, 'ngenxa kaNkulunkulu, uyazi uNixon ugxile kakhulu ngobuKhomanisi. Asikwazi ukumvimba lapho ethukuthele - futhi isandla sakhe sisenkinobho yenuzi' futhi uHo Chi Minh ngokwakhe uzobe eseParis ezinsukwini ezimbili ecela ukuthula.

UNixon kanye nomeluleki wakhe wezokuphepha kuzwelonke uHenry Kissinger bazamile ukwenza leli qhinga October 1969, ngethemba lokusabisa iSoviet Union ukuze icindezele iNyakatho yeVietnam ukuba yamukele imigomo yaseMelika. Ngo-Okthoba 6, uKissinger wayala unobhala wezokuvikela ukuba enze “uchungechunge lwezinyathelo zokuqapha ezandisiwe eziklanyelwe ukudlulisela kubantu baseSoviet ukulungela okwandayo kwamabutho amaqhinga ase-US.” Ngesonto elilandelayo, i-Strategic Air Command yafaka ukuqapha kwamabhomu angu-176 kanye namathangi afaka uphethiloli angu-189. UNixon wahlangana nenxusa laseSoviet, ebonisa, ngokukaKissinger owayehlabeke umxhwele, “amathumbu omgembuli wezikebhe zomfula.” Ngo-Okthoba 26, i-Strategic Air Command yandizisa amabhomu e-B-52 ayisithupha ahlomile phezu kwe-Alaska. Kodwa, naphezu kokusatshiswa, iMoscow ayizange iphoqe uHanoi ukuthi azinikele - futhi (ngenhlanhla) futhi abaholi baseSoviet abazange bethuke futhi baqalise isiteleka sokuqala e-United States.

The ezombusazwe isayensi izincwadi kubonisa ukuthi isu lohlanya ngokuvamile alisebenzi. Inkinga enkulu ngesu, ngamagama okuthi UStephen Walt, ummeli wamaqiniso ebudlelwaneni bamazwe ngamazwe:

Uma ezinye izifundazwe zisebenzisana nomholi onamandla kodwa ongalindelekile, zinganyathela ngokucophelela kodwa ngeke zenze izivumelwano ezinkulu.

Phela uma uhlanya luyingozi manje ukwenza noma yini elwenza lube namandla kuvele lube yingozi kakhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ukushweleza kwesinye isikhathi kuyisu elihlakaniphile lezokuxhumana, kodwa kuphela uma umuntu ekholelwa ukuthi ukuvumelana kuzosusa izikhalazo, kunciphise izinsolo, kwenze olunye uhlangothi lube mnene, futhi kuvumele ubudlelwano obuzuzisayo ukuthi buvele.

Cabanga ukuthi bekuzokwenzekani uma iWashington iphendula uPutin's bluster yenuzi ngokumisa izikhali zayo eziya e-Ukraine noma isuse unswinyo.

I-Kremlin, manje esenendlela efakazelwe yokuthola indlela yayo, ingabe isifuna ukuthi iGeorgia neMoldova, amaRiphabhulikhi amabili angaphambili eSoviet azinikele lapho amasosha aseRussia ebambe indawo ebangwayo njengamanje. Futhi lapho i-United States ne-NATO benqaba ukunikeza izikhali kulaba hulumeni (ngoba, ngemva kwakho konke, umuntu akafuni ukubeka engozini impi yenuzi), la mazwe amabili angeke abe nenketho encane ngaphandle kokuhambisa. Kodwa kungani ume lapho? Uma iRussia yabe ifuna (ngezinkulumo ezifanele nezivivinyo zemicibisholo) ukuthi amasosha e-NATO asuswe emazweni aseBaltic, bekungaba kuhle yini ukubeka engcupheni uhlanya lukaPutin olunyukela empini yenuzi? Ngakho-ke thobela. Futhi uma iphinda ifuna ukuthi kungabikho izingalo ze-NATO ezinikezwa lezi zingxenye zangaphambili zeSoviet Union, futhi, kungani kucasula iBhere? Kepha ngesinye isikhathi, iMoscow noma iWashington izobalela kabi - ingabe i-NATO izobuyela phansi? ingabe i-Russia iyakhohlisa? - futhi sizobe siphakathi kwempi yenuzi.

Futhi uPutin bekungeke kube nguyena yedwa ongazama ukusizakala ngaleli su. Ingabe impumelelo yakhe izozikhuthaza ezinye iziqhwaga zenuzi? Ingabe u-Israyeli angase enze izimfuno ze-Iran, lapho iTehran kwakuzodingeka inikeze khona funa ibhekane ne-Armagedoni? Ingabe iChina ingase ifune ukuthi i-United States iyeke ukuphatha izikhali ngisho nokuhweba neTaiwan, kube lula ukunqoba ngaphandle kwegazi? Kungenzeka yini ukuthi iNorth Korea ifune ukuthi iSouth Korea neJapan zixhase umnotho wayo?

Kodwa ukuvuma ukusongelwa uPutin ngeke nje kukhuthaze ukuqhubeka kwezenzo zokuqolwa kwezikhali zenuzi. Kungase futhi kushukumise labo abangase babe izisulu zalokhu kuqolwa ukuba bajahe ukuzitholela izikhali zenuzi njengendlela yokuzivikela. ISouth Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, nezinye nakanjani zizofuna ukuba yizifunda zezikhali zenuzi (uma zingakwenzi lokho). Abanye Ochwepheshe baye bathi ukwanda kwezikhali zenuzi kungaba kukhulu, ngoba akekho ongaphinde aye empini, esaba impindiselo yenuzi. Kodwa njengoba iningi abahlaziyi zwisisa, i izingozi of ngengozi, ngokungaqondile, noma impi ekhulayo, noma ubuphekula, noma ukucekelwa phansi kwempahla kukhuphuka kakhulu ngenani lezikhali zenuzi.

Ukuqiniseka, i umlando iphakamisa ukuthi izikhali zenuzi azizange ziphumelele kakhulu njengethuluzi eliphoqelelayo. (Cabanga ukuthi ukuba nezikhali zenuzi akuzange kuvumele i-United States ukuthi inqobe eVietnam noma eSoviet Union e-Afghanistan.) Kodwa uma izinsongo zenuzi zenza amaRussia anqobe e-Ukraine (ngoba bekuyoba kanjalo ukunqanyulwa kwempahla yezempi yaseNtshonalanga). okusho), i-calculus izoshintsha kakhulu. Uchwepheshe wezikhali zenuzi u-Todd Sechser une ukuphawula:

I-Russia isinikeze isikhumbuzo esicacile sokuthi izikhali zenuzi aziyona induku yomlingo. Lapho impi iqala, uVladimir Putin wenza izinsongo eziningi zenuzi - zombili ezicacile nezishoyo. Kodwa ukwesaba ukwanda kwezikhali zenuzi akuzange kusabise i-Ukraine ukuthi ithumele. Futhi lezi zinsongo azizange zivimbe amazwe aseNtshonalanga ekubekeni unswinyo olukhubazayo eRussia nasekunikezeni usizo lwezempi e-Ukraine. Uma kukhona, ukubhebhetheka kukaPutin kwenyukliya kuye kwabhebhethekisa ukuhlehla kwamazwe ngamazwe ngokumelene neRussia. Impi iye yagqama emikhawulweni yezombangazwe yezikhali zenuzi, futhi omashiqela abanezifiso zenuzi kufanele baqaphele.

Ukube esikhundleni salokho, i-NATO ibivuma noma ivumela izimfuno zikaPutin, izifundo zabaholi abanezifiso zenuzi bezizohluka.

Ngakho-ke, ukushweleza kunezingozi zako, okusungula amandla angase ande kunokunciphisa ubungozi bempi yenuzi. Kodwa ukwakha amasosha kanye nengqondo yokuvimbela kunezingozi zako futhi, njengoba sazi ezibonelweni eziningi zomlando. International ubudlelwane izifundiswa kanye Ukuthula Sekuyisikhathi eside abacwaningi behlonza “inkinga yezokuphepha” njengembangela enkulu yempi: lapho izwe elilodwa lithatha izinyathelo zokwandisa ukuvikeleka kwalo okubuye kwehlise ukuvikeleka kwezitha zalo, imiphumela ewumphumela yokuphikisana nayo igcina inciphisa ukuvikeleka kwawo wonke umuntu. (Empumalanga ukwanda kwe-NATO Kwakuyisibonelo sakudala salokhu kuguquguquka.) Ngakho-ke nakuba kungaba nengqondo ukubiza ukuhlehliswa kosizo e-Ukraine uma kunengozi yangempela yempi yenuzi, ukuvuma izimfuno zaseRussia uma kungukukhohlisa kungase kukhulise amandla. izingozi zempi yenuzi.

Izinsongo zenuzi ngaso sonke isikhathi kufanele zithathwe ngokungathi sína, futhi kuqikelelwe kakhulu ekuphenduleni kuzo. Kunezizathu eziningana, nokho, zokubheka izinsongo zikaPutin njengokuthumela kanye nokuziphatha kanjalo.

Okokuqala, izinsongo zakhe zihilele ukukhohlisa kanye ne-bluster, kodwa empeleni azihileli noma yikuphi ukunyakaza kwezempi okuhambisanayo. Lokhu kungenza uPutin abukeke eqinile ezilalelini zakhe zasekhaya, angethuse umbono womphakathi e-Ukraine naseNtshonalanga, kodwa ngaphandle kokufaka engcupheni imiphumela yokunyuka kwezempi. Ukube uPutin empeleni ubengabeka amandla akhe enuzi, lokho kungaba nemiphumela yangempela. IWashington ingase yenyuse isimo sokuqwashisa samandla ayo, futhi, okubi kakhulu, kungaba sengozini yesiteleka saseMelika sokuqala. Kepha ngokuzibandakanya ekukhulumeni okumangazayo ngenkathi eqinisekisa ukuthi ubuhlakani base-US bayabona ukuthi akazisusi izingalo zakhe zenuzi ezinobuhlakani. izindawo zokugcina ezisekelweni zempi, uPutin ubonisa ukuthi uyabazisa ubungozi bezikhali zenuzi. Ngempela, ngoMashi 2022, i-United States neRussia basungula “inombolo yocingo yokuqeda ukungqubuzana” ukuze ugweme noma yikuphi ukukhuphuka okungaqondile e-Ukraine. NgoMeyi, uNobhala Wezokuvikela wase-US kanye noSihlalo Wezikhulu Ezihlangene Zabasebenzi ukuxhumana okusungulwe kabusha nozakwabo baseRussia okokuqala ngqa selokhu kwaqala impi.

Okwesibili, uPutin wayenomlando wokuzama ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi. Yena wathi wayezimisele ukubeka amabutho akhe enuzi ngesikhathi sokuthathwa kweCrimea ngo-2014. Njengango-2022, nokho, inkulumo-ze ayifaniswanga nezenzo.

Okwesithathu izindleko zasekhaya. Kwesinye isikhathi kuphakanyiswa ukuthi awekho amandla noma izikhungo emphakathini waseRussia ezikhawulela uPutin - ukunyakaza okulwa nempi kubuthakathaka kakhulu - ngakho-ke ingozi yokucindezela inkinobho ingokoqobo kakhulu. Kepha iRussia akumele ibe yintando yeningi esebenza kahle ukuze kube nezingqinamba zasekhaya kuPutin. Cabanga ukuthi amasosha aseRussia awanalo inani lamasosha awadingayo (iRussia ibilwa impi enkulu evamile” “ngamandla esikhathi sokuthula,” kusho umhlaziyi wezempi wase-US uMichael. Kofman); lokhu kushoda kungaxazululwa ngokuyalela ukuhlangana okujwayelekile, kodwa u-Putin ngokusobala uyahlulela ukuthi izindleko zezombangazwe zasekhaya zokwenza lokho zizoba zikhulu kakhulu. Umuntu angacabanga ukuthi ukukhuphula "ukusebenza kwezempi okukhethekile" empini yenuzi kuzonyusa kakhulu izindleko zezepolitiki zasekhaya zikaPutin kanye nama-oligarchs akhe asekelayo.

Okwesine izindleko zamazwe ngamazwe. Sibone idiplomacy yaseRussia inyakaza ngokugcwele ekuzameni ukunqoba amazwe angaphandle. IYurophu ihlangene ngokumelene nokuhlasela kukaPutin, kodwa kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba, amazwe amaningi azama ukugwema ukuthatha uhlangothi. Ukuze iRussia isebenzise izikhali zenuzi kuzoletha igalelo elikhulu esimweni seMoscow emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi e-Afrika naseLatin America, lapho kunezindawo ezingenawo amandla enuzi. Ngisho neChina, eye yasekela iRussia buthule, izocindezelwa kanzima ukuthi isekele ukusetshenziswa kwezikhali zenuzi okokuqala, iphikisana nenqubomgomo yayo esimenyezelwe. (Ukubambisana kwezempi kweChina neRussia kusukela ekuhlaselweni bekulinganiselwe, futhi wagodla ngesinqumo se-General Assembly esilahla ukuhlasela kweRussia.) The sibikezelo ukuthi iChina izokweseka unswinyo olubhekiswe eMoscow uma kwenzeka isebenzisa izikhali zenuzi akubonakali kungenangqondo.

Okwesihlanu, iRussia ibonakala iqaphe kakhulu ekumemezeleni ukuthi imigqa ebomvu yeqiwe. Isibonelo, ngo-Ephreli, lapho umcibisholo wase-Ukraine ushaya ifulegi laseRussia Black Sea Fleet, nge usizo lwezobunhloli zase-US, iRussia yaphikelela ngokuthi yayingakaze ibe khona nhlobo imicibisholo, kwakunomlilo nje. Futhi ngo-Agasti, lapho amabutho ase-Ukraine eqala ukuqhuma eRussia I-airbase eCrimea, “UMnyango Wezokuvikela WaseRussia washesha wehlisa izinga lomonakalo, wathi akukho mishini ecekeleke phansi futhi abekho abashonile ababikiwe,” kugomela ngokuthi “kwaphikiswana nevidiyo eyavela endaweni yesigameko kanye nezibalo zomonakalo owenziwa yizikhulu zaseCrimea. .” Intshisekelo ye-Kremlin yokufihlela abantu baseRussia ukwehluleka kwayo kwezempi yenza kube nzima ukuhlanganisa umbono womphakathi waseRussia ukuze usekele noma yikuphi ukwanda.

Imigqa Ebomvu

Naphezu kwalezi zizathu zokukholelwa ukuthi izinsongo zenuzi zikaPutin zingamagxolo amaningi kunokuluma, ukuqapha kudinga ukucabanga ngamazinga ahlukene kanye nezinhlobo zosizo i-United States ne-NATO engase inikeze i-Ukraine nalapho lokhu kungase kube yingozi kakhulu.

Lezo zinqubomgomo ezingabeka amasosha ase-US ekulweni ngqo namasosha aseRussia kusobala ukuthi ziyingozi kakhulu. Yebo, kungenzeka ukuthi iRussia izohlehla lapho ibhekene nenselelo eqondile evela kumasosha aseNtshonalanga, kodwa lokho kubonakala kuyingozi enkulu kakhulu ukuthi ingathathwa. Indawo okungeyona impukane - njengoba ikhuthazwa nguZelensky kanye various US ama-pundits - kungabandakanya izingozi ezifanayo , ngoba ukudubula izindiza zaseRussia noma ukucekela phansi izikhali ezilwa nezindiza ezingase zisongele izindiza zase-US kuphakamisa ithemba lokungqubuzana okuqondile kwe-US-Russian.

U-Biden unakho kusho ngokucacile: "Inqobo nje uma i-United States noma abalingani bethu bengahlaselwa, ngeke sihlanganyele ngokuqondile kule ngxabano, noma ngokuthumela amasosha aseMelika ukuthi ayolwa e-Ukraine noma ngokuhlasela amabutho aseRussia." Kodwa uphi umugqa obomvu mayelana nokubandakanyeka okungaqondile kwe-US? Lokhu akuyona indaba yalokho okushiwo uPutin - uma enikezwe isisusa sakhe nokuthambekela kokukhohlisa - kodwa umbuzo wokuthi yiziphi izenzo ze-US ezingase zibangele iRussia ukuthi isebenzise izikhali zenuzi.

Enye indlela yokuthola umqondo wemigqa ebomvu yangempela kungaba ukubheka isibonelo somlando: ezinye izimo lapho amandla amakhulu anezikhali zenuzi ayelwa nomphikisi ongahlomile owayesekelwa amanye amandla amakhulu. Bahambe ibanga elingakanani? Yayiyini imigqa ebomvu?

Cabanga ngeMpi YaseKorea. I-United States yayilwa neNorth Korea (okungeyona eyenuzi). I-China, nayo eyayingakabi nazo izikhali zenuzi, yangenelela ngokuqondile ekulweni ngasohlangothini lwaseNyakatho Korea, yathumela “amavolontiya” ayizigidi ezimbili - ngaphandle kokunciphisa ukuhlasela kwe-US emhlabathini waseShayina, i-nuclear noma okunye. (Ujenene wase-US ophethe, uDouglas MacArthur, wacela ukuba kuteleke eChina, kodwa uTruman wamxosha.) ISoviet Union yayineziteleka. wasiza ukulungiselela ukuhlasela kokuqala kwePyongyang eNingizimu, futhi andisa usizo lwayo lwezempi eNyakatho Korea kashumi kusukela ngo-1949 kuya ku-1951 wanika Izwe laseShayina linezikhali ezanele zokuhlukanisa izinsana ezingama-64 kanye nezigaba zomoya ezingama-22 futhi linikeze amaphesenti angama-90 ezikhali zayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, abashayeli bezindiza baseSoviet bahlanganyela ngokuqondile empini, bendiza zakamuva I-Soviet fighter, i-MIG-15 (nakuba inezimpawu zesiShayina noma zaseNyakatho Korea, futhi ngaphezu kwendawo ephethwe amaKhomanisi), idubula abaningi Izindiza zase-US. Abanye 5,000 Abashayeli bezindiza baseSoviet basebenza kule mpi. Nakuba iMoscow yenza umzamo omkhulu wokufihla ukubandakanyeka kwayo okuqondile, i-United States wayazi ngayo futhi yanquma ukuyigcina iyimfihlo ukuze ingaholeli empini ebanzi.

Empini yaseVietnam, China wathumela amasosha onjiniyela ayi-100,000 eNyakatho yeVietnam, lapho akha futhi alungisa khona izindawo zempi kanye nemizila yezitimela, kanye namasosha ezikhali ezilwa nezindiza ayi-150,000, ukuze avikele izinhloso zamasu enyakatho yeHanoi ezindizeni zase-US. Eminyakeni lapho amabutho ase-US ayezibophezele kakhulu, ngo-1965-1972, iBeijing yanikeza uHanoi izibhamu eziyizigidi ezingu-1.3, izinhlamvu ezicishe zibe yisigidigidi, izingcezu zezikhali ezingama-43,000, amagobolondo ezikhali eziyizigidi eziyi-12, amathangi angama-344, imikhumbi yezempi eyi-141 kanye nezindiza ezingama-82. (Khumbula ukuthi i-China ngalesi sikhathi yayiyizwe elimpofu kakhulu, phakathi kwe-Cultural Revolution yalo enobudlova nesiphithiphithi.)

Usizo lweSoviet eNyakatho yeVietnam lwalubaluleke kakhulu. Kusuka 1965 kuya 1972, iMoscow yanikeza usizo lwezempi olungaphezu kwamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili, okungaba amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2 Amadola ka-2022. Ezweni eline-GDP cishe ingxenye yesithathu ye-United States ngaleso sikhathi, leli kwakuyizinga elingavamile lokusekelwa. (Uma kuqhathaniswa, usizo lwezempi lwase-US oluya e-Ukraine ngaphansi kokuphathwa kwe-Biden selusondele $ 10 billion) Usizo lwamaSoviet kuhlanganisiwe imicibisholo ye-surface to air (ama-SAM), izindiza zezindiza, nabeluleki bezobuchwepheshe. Ama-SAM okuqala adutshulwa ezindizeni zase-US ngo-1965 axoshwa ngabasebenzi baseSoviet. I-CIA kubika ngo-1968 ukuthi kwakubonakala sengathi kunomkhawulo ohlotsheni losizo iMoscow eyayilunikeza “ngaphandle kwezikhali ezihlaselayo ezingaholela ekulweni ne-US.”

Inkinga ye-missile yaseCuba ingesinye isibonelo esithakazelisayo. Kennedy kushiwo esidlangalaleni ukuthi imicibisholo yokulwa nezindiza yaseSoviet eCuba yayingelona usongo e-United States. Ngokusobala, lezi zingasetshenziswa ngokumelene nezindiza zase-US ezihlasela isiqhingi, kodwa lokho kwakungeyona inkinga. Nokho, uma amaRussia kufanele abeke imicibisholo ecasulayo engashaya izwe laseMelika, khona-ke “izinkinga ezimbi kakhulu zizovela." U-Kennedy wayezenzisa lapha, njengoba i-United States yayinezikhali zenuzi eTurkey ezingase zishaye iSoviet Union; kuKennedy, eMoscow wayenqatshelwe ukwenza lokho uWashington ayevunyelwe ukukwenza. Noma kunjalo, umehluko phakathi kwesikhali esingasetshenziswa kuphela ukuzivikela kanye nalesi esingasetshenziswa ukubangela umonakalo omkhulu endaweni yasekhaya yelinye izwe ungokoqobo.

Futhi umehluko osebenzayo nase-Ukraine. Ukunikeza i-Ukraine izikhali ezingase zingene shí eRussia kungaba inkanuko kakhulu kunokuhlinzeka ngezikhali ezingasetshenziswa ngokumelene namaRussia ngaphakathi kwe-Ukraine.

Lezi zibonelo zomlando ziphakamisa ukuthi usizo lwe-NATO oluya e-Ukraine alulona ubudedengu kunokuziphatha kwamandla amakhulu okwedlule.

Abahlaziyi bocwaningo uSamuel Charap noJeremy Shapiro asikisela ukuthi ukusesha komugqa othile obomvu akulungile. Nakuba bethi i-United States namadlelandawonye ayo kufanele baqhubeke nokuhlinzeka i-Ukraine ngezikhali ezidingayo, baphikisa ngokuthi awukho umugqa obomvu othize ukuwela kwawo okungadala ukwanda kweRussia. Kunalokho, ubungozi bokukhuphuka buvela eRussia ithola ukuthi izinhloso zayo zibhuntshile.

Inkinga akukhona ukuthi ukunikeza i-Ukraine isikhali esithile kungase kubangele ukwanda kodwa kunalokho uma ukusekelwa kwamazwe aseNtshonalanga kwe-Ukraine kuphumelela ukunqanda ukuqhubekela phambili kweRussia, lokho kuyosho ukwehlulwa okungamukeleki kwe-Kremlin.

Baqinisile impela ukuthi i-United States kufanele ibe neqhaza ekuxazululeni okuxoxiswana nabo ngokubhalela abaseRussia ukuthi yiziphi unswinyo lwezomnotho ezimisele ukulususa uma nalapho befinyelela esivumelwaneni esamukelekayo kubantu base-Ukraine. Futhi iWashington idinga ukucacisela i-Ukraine imikhawulo yosizo lwayo ukuze i-Kyiv yenze izinqumo ngolwazi olugcwele. Futhi i-NATO kufanele imemezele ukulungela kwayo ukuphetha isivumelwano esisha, esingaqinisekiswa sokuqeda amandla enuzi aphakathi nendawo eYurophu, ngaleyo ndlela yandise ukuphepha kwabo bonke. Kodwa uma iRussia isanethemba “lokuthuthuka,” kunzima ukubona ukuthi amazwe aseNtshonalanga angakugwema kanjani ukubhuntshisa izinhloso zeRussia.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, akusenakwenzeka ukuthi iMoscow igweme “ukunqotshwa okungamukeleki” ngoba isilahlekelwe ngaphezu kwanoma yini engayithola e-Ukraine. Ukugqugquzelwa kwe-NATO kanye nokungena kwe-Finland kanye ne-Sweden kuye kwenza ukuphepha kwe-Russia kwaba buthaka kakhulu kunanoma yibuphi ubulungu be-Ukraine obucatshangelwayo obungase buyenzile; kanye ne ukulahleka kwezomnotho izohlupheka ngokundiza kwezimali kanye nabasebenzi abanamakhono kanye nokulahlekelwa ukufinyelela ekuthengisweni kwezobuchwepheshe obuphezulu kuzodlula inani lalokho engakuphanga e-Ukraine.

Inqubomgomo yase-US

Uma kubhekwa izingqinamba ezihilelekile, impendulo yase-US ekuhlaseleni kweRussia i-Ukraine idinga ukulinganiswa ngokucophelela. Kuze kube manje, abaphathi be-Biden bakhombise ukuqaphela okuncomekayo ngokungaphenduli ku-bluster yenuzi kaPutin nge-bluster yayo, nangaphandle kokukhulisa isimo sokuqwashisa samandla ayo enuzi. Washington ngisho ukubambezeleka wabe esekhansela ukuhlolwa kwe-ICBM okwakuhleliwe ukuze kugwenywe ukungezwani okukhulayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Biden ngokusobala limenyezelwe:

Njengoba ngingavumelani noMnu. Putin, futhi ngithola izenzo zakhe zithukuthele, i-United States ngeke izame ukuletha ukuxoshwa kwakhe eMoscow. Uma nje i-United States noma abalingani bethu bengahlaselwa, ngeke sihlanganyele ngokuqondile kule ngxabano, noma ngokuthumela amasosha aseMelika ukuthi ayolwa e-Ukraine noma ngokuhlasela amabutho aseRussia. Asikhuthazi noma asivumeli i-Ukraine ukuthi iteleke ngale kwemingcele yayo. Asifuni ukunweba impi ukuze nje sizwise iRussia ubuhlungu.

(Kunezitatimende zezikhulu zaseMelika ezibonakala ziphikisana nesigwebo sokugcina, kodwa kunzima ukukholwa ukuthi abaphathi beBiden bacabanga ukuthi izithakazelo zase-US zisetshenziswa ngokukhipha impi edala umonakalo omkhulu kangaka kwezomnotho emazweni aseNtshonalanga futhi ebambezeleka. I-pivot yaseWashington eya e-Asia.)

Ingabe lokhu kusho ukuthi iWashington ibhekana ngokwanele nezingozi zempi yenuzi? Lutho neze. Kunezindlela eziningi inqubomgomo yase-US enomthelela ngayo engozini eqhubekayo yokuqothulwa kwezikhali zenuzi nalapho izinqubomgomo ezehlukene ezishaywe namuhla zingasenza sonke siphephe.

1. I-United States isathatha ngokusemthethweni isikhundla sokuthi izimisele ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi kuqala. Ithi “ngeke isebenzise noma isabise ngokusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi ngokumelene nezifundazwe eziyingxenye ye-NPT [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] futhi ezithobela izibopho zazo zokungavimbeli izikhali zenuzi,” esihlanganisa amazwe angaba ngu-180. Lo mkhawulo ekusetshenzisweni kwezikhali zenuzi waseWashington wamukelekile, kodwa kusasho ukuthi i-United States ingahlasela iRussia, iChina, iNorth Korea, noma i-Iran ngezikhali zenuzi naphezu kokungakaze kusetshenziswe izikhali zenuzi.I-China yona ngakolunye uhlangothi, naphezu kokunganaki. ulimi ephathini abezindaba, umemezele ukuthi ngeke kube ngesokuqala ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi. ISoviet Union yayinomgomo wokungasebenzisi kuqala kusukela ngo-1982-93, kodwa yawuyeka ngenqubomgomo eyayinemingcele encane ngemva kokuphela kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. IBrithani, i-France, nePakistan nayo ayinayo inqubomgomo yokungasebenzisi kuqala.Kunezinzuzo ezimbili eziyinhloko zenqubomgomo yokungasebenzisi kuqala. Okokuqala, izwe elenza lesi simemezelo ngeke libe mancane amathuba okuthi lisebenzise izikhali zenuzi. Futhi, okwesibili, izitha zezwe ezenza lesi simemezelo ngeke zibe mancane amathuba okuba zibaleke ngenxa yokwesaba ukuthi enkingeni zizoshaywa kuqala, okwenza izwe elimemezelayo lithambekele kakhulu ekubambeleleni ekuzibophezeleni kwalo.

   Ngakho-ke into yokuqala abaphathi beBiden abangayenza ukunciphisa ubungozi bempi yenuzi ukukhipha isimemezelo esingasebenzisi kuqala.

2. Kunokungaboni ngaso linye phakathi kwabahlaziyi mayelana nokuthi uPutin unalo yini igunya ngokwakhe lokuyalela isiteleka senuzi. Ukuqagela okungcono kakhulu ukuthi yena ayinayo lelo gunya ephepheni, kodwa ngokusebenza angaqinisekisa ukuthi ama-lackeys akhe kuphela abamba izikhundla ezifanele zokuhlola. Lokhu kubonakala kuwubudedengu ngokwedlulele, ukubeka isiphetho somhlaba ezandleni zabathathu noma mhlawumbe oyedwa. Kodwa noma yikuphi ukungaqondakali okukhona mayelana nezinhlaka zeziphathimandla zaseRussia, akungabazeki ukuthi e-United States umongameli unegunya lokusungula impi yenuzi. Cabanga nje, sibe nesiphetho sezinhlobo zethu ezandleni ezikhethekile zikaDonald Trump iminyaka emine. Kunjalo impela kubalulekile ukuthi ukuphela kwegunya likamongameli lihoxiswe.
3. Abaningi baye bakhala ngokuphelelwa amazinyo kweZizwe Ezihlangene ngokukwazi ukubhekana nolaka lombuso omkhulu. UMkhandlu Wezokuphepha, ngaphansi koMqulu we-UN onesibopho esiyinhloko sokuthula nokuvikeleka kwamazwe ngamazwe, uvame ukuvinjelwa yi-veto, njengalapho iRussia yafaka ivoti elilodwa elibi esinqumweni esigxeka ubudlova bayo e-Ukraine. Kepha iWashington ayikho esimweni sokugxeka amandla e-veto angenantando yeningi, uma kunikezwe awawo njalo ukusetshenziswa kwe-veto.I-United States iye yaxhasa ngokuhlanganyela i-General Assembly yakamuva isixazululo, eyamukelwe ngokuvumelana, efuna ukuba uMhlangano Jikelele uhlangane noma nini lapho kukhishwa i-veto eMkhandlwini Wezokuphepha. Kepha ayikajoyina iBrithani neFrance kanye namanye amazwe angamalungu ayi-120 ekusekeleni ikhodi ye ukuziphatha lapho amalungu oMkhandlu Wezokuphepha unomphela azibophezela ukuthi ngeke asebenzise i-veto yawo ezindabeni eziphathelene nokubulawa kwabantu, ubugebengu obubhekiswe esintwini, noma ubugebengu bempi.
4. Izwe elilodwa elingaphezu kwamazwe ayisihlanu okuqala athola izikhali zenuzi ngokweba nangokukhohlisa i-Israel. (U-Israyeli futhi babambisane ekuthuthukisweni kwezikhali zenuzi neNingizimu Afrika, ngaphambi kokuba le nhlangano iyeke ngokuzithandela uhlelo lwayo lwenuzi.) Izingcindezi zokwakhiwa kwezikhali zenuzi e-Iran bese kuthi amanye amazwe aseMpumalanga Ephakathi alandele umsuka wawo ohlelweni lwe-Israel. Usizo lwezempi lwase-US kanye nokwesekwa kwenxusa la mandla enuzi “aqinile” ayaqhubeka nokubukela phansi imizamo yomhlaba wonke yokungabhebhetheki.

Kuyaphuthuma ukuthi impi yase-Ukraine iphele. Ngaphandle komonakalo osabekayo e-Ukraine, ubungozi bezingozi kanye nokwanda okungahlosiwe kubi kakhulu. Kodwa ukunqanyulwa kwezikhali zaseNtshonalanga e-Kyiv ukuphendula lezi zingozi kungaholela ekunqotshweni kwezempi yase-Ukraine kanye nokuhlupheka okwengeziwe kubantu bayo, kanye nokunqoba komhlaseli wamazwe ngamazwe kanye nenkunzi yenuzi. Lokhu kungasho ukudalwa kwezwe eliyingozi kakhulu.

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