Ikhungethwe yizinkinga zomnotho nezangaphakathi, iPakistan ihloselwe ukwenziwa ngokwejwayelekile futhi ihwebe neNdiya — kepha uhulumeni kaNarendra Modi wamaHindu ubuzwe uyehluleka ukuthatha leli thuba.
Lapho uNarendra Modi ebuyela embusweni ihlandla lesibili e-India ngokunqoba okukhulu ngo-2019, uhulumeni wakhe wasebenza ngokushesha. Ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ngemuva kokhetho, uhulumeni waseModi ichithiwe i-athikili 370 yoMthethosisekelo waseNdiya. Ngokwenza kanjalo, yaphuca isikhundla esikhethekile somthethosisekelo esinikezwe i-Jammu ne-Kashmir, okuwukuphela kwezwe lase-India elinamaSulumane amaningi, futhi yehlisa isimo sayo isuka esimweni esinomhlangano wayo okhethiwe yaya endaweni yezinyunyana elawulwa uhulumeni omkhulu eDelhi. Lesi sinyathelo siphazamise isimo esishubile i-India nePakistan ebesibambelele kuso eKashmir amashumi eminyaka: I-India ifuna ukuthi iPakistan ihoxe enyakatho nasentshonalanga yeKashmir, engaphansi kokuphathwa kwePakistan, kanti iPakistan ifuna inhlolovo ukuze kutholwe ukuthi ngubani ophethe yonke indawo, ngazo zombili izinhlangothi ezibambelele ngokuqinile Kulayini Wokulawula. Icasulwe yisinyathelo sikahulumeni waseModi, iPakistan yaziphindiselela ngokumisa ubudlelwano bezohwebo neNdiya.
Kuze kube muva nje, isikhundla sePakistan ngokubuka i-India sigcizelele isisombululo odabeni lwaseKashmir njengesinyathelo sangaphambilini sokunyakaza kunoma yiziphi ezinye izindaba. Manje, njengoba iPakistan isenkingeni yezomnotho embi kakhulu, kungekho mathemba okuthi izoshintsha izwe laseNdiya, kanye nokubanga ihlandla lesithathu njengondunankulu weModi ngemuva kokhetho lukazwelonke lwaseNdiya, iPakistan ingaphoqeleka ukuthi ifune ukuqalisa kabusha ubudlelwano bezohwebo ngenkathi ibeka iKashmir. i-backburner.
Selokhu uModi aba undunankulu waseNdiya ngo-2014, bekulokhu kulindelwe ePakistan-okukhuphuka ngaso sonke isikhathi sokhetho lwaseNdiya-ukuthi uhulumeni waseModi uzohlanganisa inkulumo emelene nePakistan ukuze aqinise isisekelo sawo. Ngo-Ephreli 2019, emhlanganweni wokukhankasela eRajasthan ngaphambi kokhetho lukazwelonke lokugcina, uModi wamemezela ukuthi usekulungele ukusebenzisa izikhali zenuzi zaseNdiya ngokumelene nePakistan. "Siligcinile ibhomu lethu lenuzi likaDiwali?" ebuza esixukwini. IPakistan yazigxeka ngokushesha lezi zinkulumo ngokuthi "ziyishwa elikhulu futhi azinandaba" futhi okhulumela ihhovisi lakwamanye amazwe wabiza ukusetshenziswa kukaModi "inkulumo enjalo ukuze uthole izinzuzo zesikhashana zezepolitiki nezokhetho, ngokunganaki ngokuphelele imiphumela yazo ekuzinzeni kwamasu eNingizimu ye-Asia," ngokubona kufanele. “kuyadabukisa futhi kuphambene nezinkambiso zokuziphatha okuhle kwezikhali zenuzi.”
UModi usebenzise i-hyperbole efanayo ngenkathi ekhuluma ngokusebenza kwe-commando emngceleni ngo-2016 kanye nokuhlasela kwezindiza endaweni yasePakistan ekuqaleni kuka-2019 iNew Delhi yathi yakwenza ukuziphindiselela ngokuhlaselwa kwebutho laseNdiya eJammu naseKashmir. Ingxoxo mayelana nalokhu kusebenza, uModi ayibiza ngokuthi "iziteleka zokuhlinzwa," yayinokubaluleka kwezombusazwe eNdiya kunokubaluleka kwezempi kwangempela phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan. Njengamanje asebeyizihloko zamamuvi e-Bollywood, okuwenza abe yingxenye yezinkulumo ezivuna uModi.
Kule nyanga nje, i-Guardian ibike ukuthi izikhulu zezobunhloli kuwo womabili la mazwe zithi i-India inomgomo wokukhomba amaphekula kwamanye amazwe, kwabulawa abantu abangu-20 ePakistan kusukela ngo-2020. ukuthi uma “noma yimuphi umphekula uzozama ukuphazamisa i-India evela ePakistan, sizonikela muh tod jawaab” (“impendulo eshaya imihlathi”). Wengeze wathi, “Uma kudingeka, Pakistan mein ghus ke maarenge” (“Uma kudingeka, sizongena ngesinyenyela ePakistan futhi sibabulale”). Uma singena kwenye isizini yokhetho, uSingh wayephinda inkulumo kaModi eqinile yobushokobezi evela “ezitelekeni zokuhlinzwa” ngo-2019. EPakistan, lo mbiko ukhuphule ukwesaba ngokuziphatha kwamaNdiya, wenza buthaka amathuba okuba kuvamile kobudlelwano phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan— okuthile okungabandakanya ukuchithwa kwezempi eKashmir, ukuphela kokusekelwa kwemingcele yezempi yiwo womabili la mazwe kanye nokuhwebelana okukhulu phakathi kwamaNdiya namaPakistani ngemithetho yama-visa ekhululekile kanye nokwenyuka kohwebo nokubambisana.
Izimfuneko ezimelene nePakistan zezinqubomgomo zesifunda ze-Modi, ngokubona kwePakistan, ziyingxenye yepolitiki yasekhaya emelene namaSulumane echaze iqembu elibusayo i-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ngaphansi kwe-Modi. Abashisekeli bezwe abangamaHindu bamise amaSulumane aseNdiya njengezikhwama zabo zokubhoboza ekhaya, kanti iPakistan, enomlando wayo omningi wamaSulumane nomlando oshubile neNdiya, idlala indima efanayo esigabeni sesifunda. Okwakamuva umbiko yi-India Hate Lab, iqembu locwaningo elizinze eWashington, DC, libonise izigameko ezirekhodiwe ezingu-668 zenkulumo enenzondo ebhekiswe kumaSulumane eNdiya ngo-2023. Kulezi zenzakalo, ezingu-255 zeza engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka kanye ne-413 engxenyeni yesibili-okumaka Ukwenyuka ngamaphesenti angama-62 ekwakhiweni kokhetho lukazwelonke, iningi lazo zonke lezi zigameko zenzeka ezifundazweni zaseNdiya eziphethe ohulumeni be-BJP. Umbono ogqamile ePakistan ukuthi lo mkhuba, kanye nokuvuvukala okuhambisanayo kwemizwa emelene nePakistan, kuzokhula kakhulu njengoba ukhetho lwaseNdiya luqhubeka ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi, futhi futhi uma—noma uma izibikezelo ezikhona zilungile, lapho—uModi ewina umklomelo wakhe. ithemu yesithathu ilandelana.
Ngalokhu kulangazela, abenzi benqubomgomo basePakistan bacabanga ukuthi i-India eqhubeka ngaphansi kwe-Modi ngeke izimisele ukusebenzelana ne-Pakistan i-vis-à-vis Kashmir, futhi cishe izokwandisa ukwesekwa kwayo emaqenjini amasosha asebenzelana nezwe lasePakistan, kuhlanganise ne-Tehrik-i- Izingubo ze-Taliban Pakistan kanye ne-Baloch separatist. Cishe eminyakeni emihlanu ngemva kokuchithwa kwe-Article 370, kanye neNkantolo Ephakeme yaseNdiya kusukela yachitha zonke izinselelo zomthetho zokuba semthethweni kwesenzo, umqondo weKashmir njengendawo elawulwa iDelhi ngaphandle kokuvikelwa kwayo okukhethekile kwangaphambili kanye nokuzimela okulinganiselwe uye zigxile ngokujulile futhi zibe nezikhungo eNdiya. IPakistan ayikwazi ukulindela ngokweqiniso ukuthi izwe laseNdiya lihlehlise lesi sikhundla. Kuzoba nzima kakhulu, noma kungenzeki, kuhulumeni ongewona owe-BJP ukuthi ahlehlise lolu shintsho ngenxa yokwesaba ukuhlehla okudumile, nangenxa yesinqumo senkantolo esimemezela ukuthi iKashmir ayinabo ubukhosi bangaphakathi obuyihlukanisa kwezinye izifundazwe nezindawo. .
Umzila we-Track II wokuxoxisana phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan, ohlanganisa imihlangano engeyona esemthethweni phakathi kwezikhulu esezithathe umhlalaphansi kanye nezifundiswa zala mazwe womabili, futhi emashumini eminyaka adlule wawunconywa njengomthombo wethemba lokuthula, nawo awukwazanga ukuletha noma iyiphi inzuzo. imiphumela eminyakeni ye-Modi. Ayiphumelelanga nje kuphela ukuhambisa inaliti ezindabeni zeKashmir nobushokobezi, kodwa ayizange ikwenze lokho ekuvuleni kabusha iziteshi ezisemthethweni zezingxoxo nokusebenzisa i-diplomacy ukuxazulula izingxabano.
Njengoba izwe laseNdiya livaleleke endaweni yalo eKashmir, iPakistan iphishekela isimo esisha esifana nemodeli yamaSino-Indian yobudlelwano bamazwe amabili. Ngobubanzi, lokhu kungasho ukuvula ezohwebo ngaphandle kokuphoqelela ukuxazululwa kwangaphambili kwezingxabano zezindawo ezisasele. Sekungamashumi eminyaka, futhi naphezu kokungqubuzana okuthile ezindaweni eziphikisanayo eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-India ne-China bakwazile ukwenza kancane kancane futhi bandise ukuhwebelana kwamazwe amabili, okuyinani lamanje elilinganiselwa ku-$136 billion ngonyaka. Isilinganiso seBhange Lomhlaba lango-2018 sabonisa ukuthi ukuhweba kwe-India-Pakistan kungakhula kufinyelele ku-$37 billion ngonyaka uma izimo ezifanele zenzeka. I-Pakistan, ebisenqenqemeni lokuwa komnotho ngokuphelele eminyakeni embalwa edlule, ayikwazi ukukuziba ukubaluleka okubalulekile kwekusasa layo lokuhwebelana neNdiya, futhi i-Islamabad ibizama ukuthola indlela yokufeza isithembiso sayo.
Lapho ubhubhane luhlasela, iPakistan yaqala kabusha ukungenisa kwemithi evela eNdiya, ezinyangeni eziyisishiyagalolunye ngemuva kokumisa konke ukuhwebelana nalo makhelwane. Njengoba isimo sayo somnotho siwohloka, iye yasusa imingcele eyengeziwe ukuze izitholele izimpahla ezishibhile zaseNdiya. NgoMashi, ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle wasePakistan, u-Ishaq Dar, uthembise "ukubheka ngokucophelela izindaba zokuhwebelana neNdiya." Igcizelela ukuthi akuyona iPakistan kuphela ezozuza: I-India ingathola izimakethe ezintsha ezinkulu ePakistan, kanye nezinsiza zokuqhubekisela phambili ukukhula kwayo. Uma kukhona, ngomnotho wayo osezingeni eliphezulu, i-India ibingavikela ingxenye enkulu yemali elinganiselwa ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-37 zamarandi ohwebo—kanye nawo wonke amandla ezombusazwe kanye nezamanxusa azoza nakho.
Ngisho namasosha asePakistani, ukujwayela okuncane kobudlelwano neNdiya okungasiza ekuguquleni isimo somnotho wezwe, inqobo nje uma kuza ngaphandle kokuyekethisa obala ngeKashmir, akusona isivumelwano esinzima. Noma yikuphi ukuthuthukiswa okulandelayo ekuhwebeni kwamazwe amabili, okungabandakanya ukugunyazwa kwamasosha asePakistan nokubamba iqhaza amabhizinisi amakhulu, engasiza amasosha ukuthi alulame ukuhlehla kwasekhaya kwakamuva ekuzibandakanyeni nasekusebenziseni ipolitiki yasePakistan. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma ukuhweba kungaqinisa ukuthula emngceleni, lokhu kungase kuvumele amasosha asePakistan ukuthi agxile ngokucace kakhudlwana ekubhekaneni nokuqubuka kabusha kwezempi yezenkolo neyobuzwe esanda kubamba izingxenye ezithile zezwe. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa futhi IBalochistan izifundazwe.
EPakistan, ngakho-ke, kunezinzuzo eziqondile zokwamukela uhlaka lwe-"Sino-Indian", kodwa umbuzo obalulekile ukuthi ngabe i-India, eholwa nguModi kanye ne-BJP, izovuma yini ukusebenzisana nePakistan ukuthuthukisa uhlaka olunjalo. Njengomphumela, iPakistan kufanele futhi ibuze ukuthi yini engayenza ukuze ikholise i-India ukuthi ilandele le modeli yobudlelwano bamazwe amabili.
Umbono onethemba ukuthi sesivele sikhona isisekelo sokusebenza. Iminyaka engaphezu kwemithathu, kusukela ngoFebhuwari 2021, i-India kanye nePakistan baye babona a misa ukudubula ngomugqa Wokulawula—okwenza lokhu kube ngenye yezindlela zokumiswa kwezikhali okuhlala isikhathi eside kakhulu emlandweni wawo womabili la mazwe futhi kukhombisa ukuthi ukuxazululwa okuxoxiwe ngakho kungenzeka ukuthi kungafinyelelwa kuphela kodwa futhi kugcineke. Lokhu kumiswa komlilo kwasungulwa uhulumeni waseModi ngasohlangothini lwaseNdiya, futhi kunesizathu sokuthemba ukuthi kuzohlala uma abaphathi abasha abaholwa yiModi bebuyela emandleni. Ngaleso sikhathi, iPakistan ingaba nethemba lokuthi uhulumeni omusha weModi naye angaqiniseka ukuthi aqale kabusha ubudlelwano bezohwebo.
Lokho iPakistan engakwenza ukukhulisa amathuba alokhu ukuqeda noma yikuphi ukwesekwa okukhona kwamaqembu ezidlamlilo afuna ukuzimela kweKashmir ephethwe yiNdiya. Iminyaka eminingi, iNew Delhi ibilokhu isola iPakistan ngokungaguquki ngokweseka ubushokobezi, futhi iqiniso lokuthi amaqembu amaningi amasosha azinze ePakistan afuna ukuzimela kweKashmir kuyasiqinisa lesi simangalo. Ngo-2022, iPakistan yakhombisa i-India ukuthi ibucayi ngalolu daba ngenkathi igweba uHafiz Saeed, umsunguli wenhlangano yezidlamlilo iLashkar-e-Taiba, iminyaka engu-31 ebhadla ejele ngamacala okuxhasa amaphekula. Ukuhlukana okukhulu nokunqumayo kusuka kulawa maqembu kungase kubonise ukuthi iPakistan ikulungele ukusebenzelana neNdiya.
I-Pakistan kufanele futhi ibheke ukuthi i-India isanda kushintsha kanjani ukugxila kwayo ebudlelwaneni besifunda yasuka ku-South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) ephelelwe amandla futhi yabhekisa ku-Bay of Bengal Initiative of Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). I-BIMSTEC, enekomkhulu eDhaka, ihlanganisa wonke amazwe e-SAARC ngaphandle kwePakistan, Afghanistan, kanye neMaldives, futhi ihlanganisa iMyanmar neThailand. Ishiya ngemuva ohlangothini olungasentshonalanga lwe-Subcontinent, kanye nezingxabano zase-India-Pakistan ezivame ukuvusa i-SAARC, i-BIMSTEC ibekwa njengenye ye-SAARC kanye nendlela yokudambisa ithonya le-China esifundeni. Izifunda ze-BIMSTEC zeseka ukuhoxa kukaModi engqungqutheleni ye-SAARC ehlelelwe ngasekupheleni kuka-2016 e-Islamabad, lapho i-India yayibona njengokunqoba kwePakistan.
I-BIMSTEC inemikhawulo yayo, kodwa ukuthuthukiswa kwayo kudinga ukunakwa kwePakistan, ikakhulukazi kulokho ekushoyo ngekusasa le-SAARC. Kuzo zonke izinkinga zayo, i-SAARC inikeza indawo engaba khona yokuthi iPakistan ihlanganyele neNdiya ekuphishekeleni ukujwayela kanye nokuhweba. Osopolitiki basePakistan bangenza kahle ukubona ukuthi ingcebo yayo ingavuselelwa kanjani.
Ukuthi izinto zihamba kuphi kuzocaca ngemuva kokhetho lwamaNdiya. Uhulumeni oqinile we-BJP kungenzeka ungasiboni isidingo sokuhlala etafuleni lezingxoxo nePakistan, ngenxa yezizathu ezihlanganisa nepolitiki egxilile emelene nePakistan kanye ne-anti-Muslim — noma, ngethemba, uModi oqinisekiswe ngokuphelele ngokungahlaselwa kwakhe ekhaya angase abe nomuzwa wokuthi unamandla. indawo yokuphusha izibopho ezithuthukisiwe. Akukho ukucasha, nokho, ukuthi lesi simo sakamuva siyinto engenzeka kude kakhulu, njengoba kunjalo namathuba obudlelwano besitayela samaSino-Indian phakathi kweNdiya nePakistan. Kunomehluko obalulekile phakathi kobudlelwano be-India ne-Pakistan kanye nobudlelwano bayo ne-China: I-India ne-China ayinayo i-engeli yomphakathi yokungqubuzana kwendawo. Noma ngabe iPakistan ifuna ukuqhela ekuthembeleni kwayo kubalingisi abangebona bezwe eKashmir ukuze izuze intuthuko ephusile ebudlelwaneni bamazwe amabili, iNdiya eholwa yiModi, enenzondo ehlakulelwe ngamaMuslim kanye nePakistan, mancane amathuba okuthi ithathe noma yisiphi isinyathelo esingasithatha. ibukela phansi ukuma kwayo kwezombusazwe ekhaya.
Uma i-India kaModi iqhubeka nokuphishekela izinhloso zayo zobuzwe bobuHindu, ngokuzonda amaSulumane kanye nokucindezelwa kwamalungelo ayisisekelo omphakathi wamaSulumane amaNdiya, kuzoba nzima ngokufanayo kuhulumeni wasePakistan ukumela uhwebo nobudlelwano obuthuthukisiwe, naphezu kwalokho. ukudangala kwayo kwezomnotho.
Lesi sihloko siyingxenye ye-“Modi's India from the Edges,” uchungechunge olukhethekile luka I-Himal Southasian sethula imibono yesifunda saseNingizimu Melika ngeshumi leminyaka lika-Narendra Modi ephethe kanye nokubuya okungenzeka njengondunankulu okhethweni lwaseNdiya lwango-2024. I-athikili isatshalaliswa ngokubambisana ne I-Globetrotter.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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