Kanye njengoko iintloko zamazwe aseBrazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) zilungiselele ukudibana eBrasilia ngoNovemba 13-14, ebanjwe nguJair Bolsonaro, inyikima yezopolitiko ephindwe kabini: inkululeko kaLula entolongweni ngoNovemba 8, ilandelwa Ubhukuqo-mbuso ngokuchasene nomongameli waseBolivia uEvo Morales ngoNovemba 11.
ULula wayengundoqo ekusekweni kweBRICS kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo. Iinkcukacha malunga nokungabikho kokusesikweni okunzulu kunye nokuthotywa umongameli waseBrazil ka-2003-10 - owavalelwa ngo-Epreli ka-2018 ngezityholo zorhwaphilizo (ezingekho mthethweni, ezicwangcisiweyo) - kunye nokubanakho ukuphinda kuqale kweWorkers Party (PT) kunokufumaneka ngokuthembekileyo (kwi ulwimi lwesiNgesi) apha Brasilwire. Imeko ihleli ikwimo eguquguqukayo kuba owayesakuba ngumongameli oneminyaka engama-74 ubudala unezilingo ezininzi ezisalindelweyo kwaye ngokobuchwephesha akavunyelwanga ukuba abuyele kwezopolitiko ngenxa yokugwetywa kwakhe kwangaphambili, kodwa izibheno ziyaqhubeka.
Nokuba umthetho udlala njani na, uLula wenze i-schizophrenia yezopolitiko nezoqoqosho: yintoni intatheli yaseBrazil uPepe Escobar ichaza njengomahluko phakathi kwedemokhrasi yoluntu kunye neo-fascism. Amandla angakumbi kuLula kunye ne-Brazilian ebuyileyo eshiyekileyo-naso sonke isilumko esifanelekileyo malunga nokuba ibhalansi yemikhosi iyalithethelela ithemba elinjalo elisekelwe kwikamva lepolitiki enye, nokuba ziphakame kangakanani na izakhono zakhe.
Ngokuqinisekileyo xa, ebutsheni bowe-1989, ndadlanโ indlebe naye kuthungelwano lukanomathotholo lwaseUnited States Pacifica, impendulo yakhe kumbuzo wam yayimangalisa: โUsandulโ ukuvela kwiQumrhu lezoRhwebo laseBrazil-American, utheni kubo?โ
Lula: โUkuba abanikezeli imisesane yabo, siya kubanqumla iminwe.โ
Kodwa loo Lula utshintshile kakhulu ngelo xesha ukusukela, emva kogqatso oluphindaphindiweyo kumongameli. I-ajenda yakhe yezopolitiko yamodareyithwa kunye nokuzingela kwakhe amahlakani phakathi koohlohlesakhe ekucingelwa ukuba bathanda ilizwe labo kwakhawuleziswa, ngakumbi ngexesha lomjikelo omkhulu wemveliso ka-2002-11. Kodwa uphinde wawuphinda kabini umvuzo omncinci kwaye, ngokunyuka kwemali egqithiselwayo kubantu abaninzi, wanciphisa kakhulu ukungalingani kweBrazil. Wasishiya isikhundla nesona siphezulu ehlabathini imvume kamongameli uvoto: 80 ekhulwini.
Iimeko zoloyiko kunye neefantasy
Ukukhululwa kukaLula kushiya ongxowankulu becaphukile kwaye besoyika. Ngokukhawuleza emva kokukhululwa kwakhe, wabhala a Forbes uthi, โIBrazil yayiyeyona iqhuba kakubi kwimarike ngenxa yeso sigwebo seNkundla Ephakamileyo. I-Brazilian yokwenyani yehla yaya kutsho kwelona nqanaba lisezantsi ukusukela nge-14 kaSeptemba 2018, yabetha i-R4.17 kwidola. I-Wall Street inokuba ilungile ukujonga uLula njengento ekhoyo, enobuchule obuncinci bokuvusa ngaphaya kwesiseko sakhe somanyano lwendabuko, isiseko esabona abaninzi ivoti eBolsonaro ngo-2018. Nangona kunjalo, akukho mntu ufanele ukuthandabuza ukudibanisa kukaLula ngaphakathi kwephiko lasekhohlo. Iintshukumo zamatshantliziyo aseMzantsi Melika afana neGrupo de Puebla kunye nokukwazi kwabo ukuvukela oorhulumente abatyekele ekunene.
Nantsi eyoyikayo Forbes Imeko yombhali: โULula ufumana umtsalane owothusayo kwaye uyakwazi ukukhupha abantu ezitalatweni bewangawangisa iiflegi zabo ezibomvu ze-PT kunye neQela lamaKomanisi. Iifestile zebhanki zophukile. Imarike yemasheya yaseBrazil iwohloka ngamanqaku ali-10,000, kwaye eyokwenene yaseBrazil ifikelela kwi-R4.25 ukuya kwidola ngokubetha kwentliziyo.โ
Ukusuka kwicala elahlukileyo, i-Escobar Ukubonakalisa ithemba lokuba ubuncinane ababini kwezinye iindwendwe ze-BRICS, u-Vladimir Putin kunye no-Xi Jinping, baza kubamba intlanganiso eyimfihlo: โUPutin no-Xi bangamahlakani okwenene kaLula kwinqanaba lehlabathi. Bebelindele uLula, njengoko oonozakuzaku baye bandiqinisekisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo. "
Iingcinga ezinqwenelekayo, nangona kunjalo, oku kufuna umbuzo olandelayo: ngawaphi amafa kulawulo lukaLula - kwaye mhlawumbi nemvuselelo - esinokuyizuza ukulwa i-neoliberal hegemony ngalo mzuzu ubalulekileyo embalini, kanye phambi kokudodobala koqoqosho lwehlabathi?
Kwaye malunga neBRICS, enye impikiswano yaba zichazwe yinkokeli yoMbutho wabaSebenzi abangenamhlaba uJoรฃo Pedro Stedile kwi Brasil de Fato: โSinoloyiko lokuba i-ajenda yabo iya kuba kuphela kwizivumelwano zorhwebo kunye nokuchazwa kwemali kwiiprojekthi eziza kuxhaswa ngezimali yiBhanki yoPhuhliso oLutsha ye-BRICS. I-BRICS sisindululo sokudityaniswa kwengingqi esijolise ngokuthe ngqo ukugxeka impiriyali yase-US yokulawula uqoqosho, idola kunye nokukhohlisa kweminye imibutho yamazwe ngamazwe efana ne-International Monetary Fund, iWorld Bank kunye neWorld Trade Organisation.
Ngaba yinyani leyo, okanye ngokuchaseneyo, ayiyo-BRICS ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukurhoxisa la maziko? (Le sisiseko sencwadi entsha ehlelwe ngokudibeneyo, I-BRICS kunye ne-Resistance e-Afrika, esandula kupapashwa ziincwadi zeZed.)
Ezi mpikiswano - zombini zembali kunye nezangoku - zifanele ukubonakaliswa ngakumbi, nokuba ziziphi iziphazamiso ezikhawulezileyo ezenziwe kukubuyela kukaLula okufunekayo ngoku kwezopolitiko zaseBrazil.
'UThixo wayengumBrazil' (ubuncinane ngo-2006-10)
Utyelelo lwam lokugqibela eBrazil, ngoDisemba ka-2018, lwavumela ithuba lokuxoxa nomxhasi we-centrist kaLula, owayesakuba ngumphathiswa wezemali uLuiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira. Ngokuqinisekileyo wayengengomxhasi we-PT ekuqaleni, akazange eze kuphela ukuze avumele uqoqosho lwezopolitiko lukaLula, kodwa wasebenza kwithiyori yakhe: 'Uphuhliso olutsha.'
Kulawulo lwesibini lukaLula (2006-10), wathi uBresser-Pereira, "UThixo wayengumBrazil." Enkosi kumjikelo omkhulu wempahla kunye neyakhe Programa de Aceleraรงรฃo do Crescimento, uLula "akazange azise ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okanye achaphazele kakubi ukukhula," ukhumbula uBresser-Pereira. I-PT "ayizange yoyike ukucaphukisa izityebi," kodwa nangona kunjalo "yayinoxanduva lwezemali" kwaye "iphendule kakuhle kwintlekele yezemali yehlabathi ka-2008," ngokuyinxenye "ngokwehlisa izinga lenzala yokwenyani malunga nesiqingatha" kwaye ibeke "ulawulo kwimali eyinkunzi. ukungena.โ
ULula njengenkokeli, wagubha uBresser-Pereira kwinqaku lika-2011, "wakhumbula ukuba kukho into efana nosomashishini kunye neshishini lesizwe, okanye, ngamanye amazwi, kukho isizwe, amandla aso namandla okukhuphisana nolunye. izizwe ziya kuxhomekeka ekucaceni nasekubambeni komanyano lwezopolitiko phakathi koosomashishini, iofisi yoluntu kunye nabasebenzi. "
Ulawulo lweBolsonaro ukusukela oko lwatshabalalisa nasiphi na 'isizwe' esinjalo, kwaye ityholwa ngokufanelekileyo ngokubuyisela iBrazil kwindawo egobileyo, ngakumbi ngokunxulumene neWashington, ngoko ke ibizwa ngokuba 'yi-imperialist engaphantsi' (njengeBrazilian. ukuxhomekeka ingcali yeengcamango uRuy Mauro Marini wachaza ukuma kwisiqingatha senkulungwane eyadlulayo). Enkosi ngokuyinxenye ekunyukeni kukaDonald Trump, iingxaki ezimangalisayo ze-geopolitical zenzeka kwihlabathi liphela, kunye nokuqonda kukaLula ezi, ngexesha. udliwanondlebe olude noEscobar kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, ityhila ubukhulu bakhe obungalinganiyo kunye nokuzithemba.
Kodwa kukho izifundo ezihlala ixesha elide zexesha likaLula onokucinga ngazo. Ngaba ingcamango yakhe yedemokhrasi yezentlalo-ntle kodwa ekwayiyo neoliberal yayiyenye indlela yokwenyani yokuba abaqhubela phambili behlabathi bacamngce ngoku, njengoko thina (ngokungaziqondi) senzayo, umzekelo eMzantsi Afrika, ngexesha elibizwa ngokuba yi-'Lula Moment'? Njengoko uEscobar Yibeke kule veki, โUbuncinci ngoku ukufa kuyaphoswa โ kwaye kucace gca: Yidemokhrasi yezentlalo ngokuchasene ne-neo-fascism. Iinkqubo ezibandakanya uluntu, imibutho yoluntu ebandakanyekayo ekumiseleni umgaqo-nkqubo woluntu, umlo wokulingana ngokuchasene nolawulo lwentando yesininzi, amaziko karhulumente anxulumene nemikhosi, ubuhlanga kunye nentiyo kubo bonke abantu abambalwa. "
I-Brazil's New Developmentalism ngokuchasene ne-Washington's imperial under-developmentalism
Uqhanqalazo oluchasene ne-anti-austerity kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo kufuneka lupholise umqolo weengcamango zeniyoliberal. I-IMF kunye neBhanki yeHlabathi yagqiba iminyaka engama-75 ubudala kulo nyaka, kudala igqithile kwiminyaka efanelekileyo yomhlalaphantsi. Ngenxa yolawulo lwezimali zehlabathi, amathemba amaninzi abahlaziyi axhomekeke ekutshintsheni ubume bamaZiko eBretton Woods, kubandakanywa ubuzwe bobunkokeli babo, imeko yemali mboleko yabo, uhlobo lokukhutshwa kwebheyile, kunye 'nelizwi' lamazwe eSithathu kunye namandla okuvota. .
Njengenxalenye yaloo nkqubo, uthungelwano lwe-BRICS bekulindeleke ukuba luxhase ulungelelwano ngakumbi, ulwahlulo 'oluchubekileyo' lwamandla emali noxanduva lwezizwe ngezizwe, ngenxa yentsalela enkulu yamashishini asakhulayo kunye noko abanye bakubona njengengcamango yophuhliso. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ngo-2014, iBhanki eNtsha yoPhuhliso (i-NDB) kunye ne-Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) zazalwa kwingqungquthela ye-BRICS yaseFortaleza, eyayisingathwe ngulowo owangena ezihlangwini zikaLula uDilma Rousseff.
Unxunguphalo luye lwanda malunga namaziko emali avela kumazwe amaninzi anoxanduva lwenkxaso yolungelelwaniso lwentlawulo-mali (i-IMF) kunye nemali yeprojekthi (iBhanki yehlabathi kunye nabazala bayo bengingqi). Amathemba okusasazwa koPhuhliso oLutsha kwihlabathi jikelele aquka unikezelo lwetyala kuzo zombini iindlela zobuchule obukhulu kunye noqoqosho oluncinci olufana nesicwangciso esamkelwe ngurhulumente we-PT waseBrasilia, kunye ne-CRA kunye ne-NDB zithathwe njengeeprojekthi zolingo ezibalulekileyo.
Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka emihlanu kamva, njengoko iBrazil iphinda ibamba iinkokeli ze-BRICS, la mathemba aphelile-ingxaki eyenzeka ngaphambi kokuba uBolsonaro alawule. Xa sijonga umva, namhlanje, iinzame ze-BRICS zokuguqula kunye nokumisela ngokusemthethweni amaZiko e-Bretton Woods abonakale engenasiqhamo nje kuphela kodwa eyingozi.
Endaweni yoko, indlela eyahlukileyo, yamabhongo ngakumbi ehambelana nefilosofi endala, i ukuxhomekeka ukugxeka, ngoku kufanelekile ngakumbi, nokuba kuyacaca ukuba ulungelelwaniso olubi lwemikhosi ngaphakathi kwe-BRICS, lukwenza ukuba oku kungenzeki kakhulu kwikamva elibonakalayo.
Ngaba iBRICS kunye neNtshona ziyasokola, okanye zirhorhozela?
Ngexesha lengqungquthela ye-Fortaleza ka-2014, i-New Developmentalism echongwe ngu-Bresser-Pereira yayiphelile, njengoko u-Dilma wayejongene noqhanqalazo oluninzi. Kodwa ke ingqiqo yayinyanzelisa abahlaziyi: ulawulo olusebenzayo ngakumbi lobudlelwane boqoqosho lwamazwe ngamazwe, kubandakanywa nemiba yezemali neyemali, ethathwe ngokuyinxenye kwisicwangciso esiyimpumelelo saseBrazil ekupheleni kweminyaka yoo-1990 noo-2000.
Omnye umba obalulekileyo yayingekokunyuka kwe-BRICS kuphela, kodwa ukuhla kwamandla eNtshona kunye nokuba semthethweni, okwathi kamva kwabonakaliswa kwindlela amaziko eBretton Woods abeke ngayo imiqathango-amatyala anzima kwaye aphinda avelise ubunkokeli ngokungafanelekanga: uhlala engummi wase-US okhokelayo. IBhanki, kunye neYurophu ekhokela i-IMF.
Ngokuyinxenye yeso sizathu, kwaye ngokuyinxenye nangenxa yomsantsa kwimarike yozinzo lwezemali, iqhinga le-BRICS lohlaziyo lwezimali kwihlabathi liye lachongwa noosoqoqosho ababini ababesakuba ziintloko zeBhanki yeHlabathi โ uJoseph Stiglitz noNicolas Stern โ ababhala ingqikelelo yokuqala yento eyaba yimpumelelo. iBhanki eNtsha yoPhuhliso ye-BRICS (i-NDB) ngowama-2011.
Le ndlela kucingelwa ukuba intsha yayinokwenzeka, uBresser-Pereira wachaza kwiphepha lobuchwephesha lika-2018, kuba iBhanki yeHlabathi iye yawela โkwingxaki yesazisi xa, ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1980, urhulumente waseMelika wayinyanzela ukuba itshintshe isuka kwibhanki yophuhliso yezizwe ngezizwe enemigaqo-nkqubo ejolise kubo. ngophuhliso lwezoqoqosho ukuba ibe yi-arhente enoxanduva lokwenza iinguqu zeneoliberal ukuqhubela phambili kumazwe asaphuhlayo - ukuguqula ulawulo lomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho ukusuka kowophuhliso ukuya kwekhululekileyo."
Yintoni enokuzithabathelโ indawo? I-NDB inemali eyinkunzi eyi-50 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (nangona kuphela i-10 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngo-2021, ifunwa kubahlawuli berhafu be-BRICS njengenkunzi ehlawulwayo, yahlulwe ngokulinganayo phakathi kwamalungu amahlanu). I-capitalisation ye-CRA yi-100 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, equka oovimba bemali yamazwe angaphandle ezinikele ekubolekeni-mboleko kwimeko yongxamiseko yemali eseleyo yentlawulo.
Ukubonakalisa ubudlelwane bamandla ngaphakathi kwe-BRICS, omabini amaziko amatsha aneempembelelo ezibalulekileyo zaseTshayina, hayi kancinci kwindima yekomkhulu laseShanghai ye-NDB, kunye ne-Beijing igqithise ngama-41 epesenti yegalelo lemali kwi-CRA, ilandelwa yiBrazil, iRussia kunye neIndiya kunye ne-18 lepesenti yezabelo nganye. , noMzantsi Afrika nge-10 ekhulwini.
Kodwa iibhanki ezigxile eNtshona zingqindilili emhlabeni ngaphakathi kwe-NDB. Umzekelo, umongameli u-KV Kamath ngaphambili wathengisela bucala eyona bhanki iphambili yelizwe laseIndiya. Ummi waseMzantsi Afrika okhethwe njengoSekela Mongameli, uLeslie Maasdorp, ngaphambili ebesebenza eGoldman Sachs, eBarclays nakwiBhanki yaseMelika โ ekwakhokela i-ofisi yangaphakathi yoshishino lwabucala ePitoli. Ukusukela kweyeKhala ka-2015 ukuya kutsho kweyeThupha ka-2017, umlawuli ongeyonxalenye yesigqeba waseMzantsi Afrika osebenza kwi-NDB yayinguTito Mboweni, ngoko owayezinze eGoldman Sachs, nowayesakuba yirhuluneli yeBhanki enguVimba (kwaye ukususela ngo-Okthobha ka-2018, umphathiswa wezemali waseMzantsi Afrika) ukhunjulwa kakhulu ngokuyigcina ikwimeko entle kakhulu. inzala ephezulu ngexesha lakhe le-1999-2009.
Olo mgaqo-siseko ubalulekile ngexesha i-ajenda yezemali yamazwe aseNtshona ingqamana neendima zayo eziphazamisayo, ezizitshabalalisayo kweminye imimandla ebalulekileyo, umz. ulawulo lwemozulu yehlabathi, i-geopolitics kunye nolawulo loqoqosho olukhulu. Utyekelo lokuzibulala luye lwaqina ngakumbi phantsi kweempembelelo zikaTrump. Nangona kunjalo wanikwa ukuqeshwa okungachaswanga kukaDavid Malpass njengomongameli weBhanki yeHlabathi ekuqaleni kuka-2019, owaqinisekisa amandla azinzileyo eNtshona ukuba angagcini nje ukulawula imali yamazwe ngamazwe kunye namaziko ayo (kubandakanya ubunkokeli), kodwa abeke i-ajenda yexesha lokunyuka kweNtshona- Ungquzulwano lweBRICS, ngenxa yobutshaba obaziwayo baseMalpass kwiChina.
Okanye hayi, kuba uMalpass uye warhoxa kwiSinophobia yakhe yangaphambili. Ngokutsho kowayesakuba ngumlawuli weBhanki yaseTshayina, uYukon Huang, โi-China yenzela iBhanki yeHlabathi ububele ngokuboleka, kuba abantu bayaqonda ukuba ayizukusilela kwezo mali-mboleko.โ Akalindelanga ukuba iMalpass yenze utshintsho olukhulu ngokunxulumene neTshayina ngexesha lesiphithiphithi sezoqoqosho, kuba โiMelika ihlala isiya kwisisombululo esomeleza inkqubo yezemali yehlabathi, kuba ingamandla eMelika. Inkqubo yezemali yehlabathi ngokusisiseko yinkqubo yezemali yaseMelika.โ Kwaye ngokumangalisayo, okwangoku, oko kufanelekile eBeijing.
Amandla kunye nekratshi lokuqeshwa kweMalpass ayimangalisi. Njengomnye umzekelo wobugwenxa baseNtshona kulawulo lwezimali zehlabathi, owayesakuba ngusoqoqosho oyintloko weBhanki yeHlabathi uNicholas Stern waqhayisa kwinkomfa yaseLondon ngo-2013 esithi. he ihlanganise kwawona mbono weBhanki ye-BRICS, ngezizathu ezingenanto yakwenza nezityholo zozinzo kunye nenkxaso-mali yemozulu (njengoko ibango labakwaStern noStiglitz kwiphepha labo le-NDB lika-2011). Endaweni yoko, wayenqwenela ukuvalelwa kweziko phakathi kwabenzi boshishino kunye neqela elithembekileyo lamagosa esizwe e-BRICS aza kuhlonipha iikhontrakthi zamazwe abo kunye namashishini anjalo.
UStern wakhangela iindlela zokuthintela imigaqo-nkqubo echaphazele kakubi loo mashishini: โUkuba unebhanki yophuhliso eyinxalenye [yeshishini elikhulu] yenza kube nzima ngakumbi koorhulumente ukuba bangathembekiโฆ Into obunayo bubukho beshishini I-European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) inciphisa amandla okuba nomngcipheko womgaqo-nkqubo owenziwe ngurhulumente, kunye nobukho be-EBRD kwisivumelwano esenza urhulumente welizwe elibamba ukuzithemba ngakumbi malunga nokwamkela olo tyalo-mali. Yiyo loo nto uMeles Zenawi, uJoe Stiglitz kunye nam, phantse kwiminyaka emithathu eyadlulayo ngoku, saqala umbono. Kwaye kukho naluphi na ucinezelo apha, endleleni? Kulungile, ke le ntwana ayikho kwirekhodiโ (Stern 2013). (Enyanisweni, ikwirekhodi, kwi-youtube.)
Ngokumalunga ne-100 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwingxowa-mali ye-CRA, ngenye imini inokuba yimfuneko kwimeko yokudodobala kwemali kunye nokosulela okufana no-1998 no-2008, ngakumbi eMzantsi Afrika. Kodwa ngelo xesha, i-IMF kusenokwenzeka ukuba ibaluleke ngakumbi, ukuba ukuhlawulwa kwetyala langaphandle lasePitoli elingazange libonwe ngoku elingazange libonwe ngaphambili liyabuzwa. Emva kokuba uMzantsi Afrika uboleke i-180 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi zokuqala kwi-CRA, imithetho yayo ifuna ukuba phambi kokuba kukhululwe i-3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ezilandelayo, i-IMF kufuneka iphumeze uhlengahlengiso kulowo ubolekayo.
Ezi kunye nezinye izinto ezininzi zimele i-South-North snuggle, kungekhona umzabalazo. I-BRICS igcine intembeko ethile 'njengamandla aphakathi' ahamba nomanyano lwamazwe amaninzi.
Nangona kunjalo, nge-ajenda entsha ye-Bolsonaro yasekunene iza kugxila (kubandakanya ukuqeshwa kwakhe komongameli olandelayo we-BRICS NDB), imeko ayiqikelelekanga. Umphathiswa wakhe wezeziMali we-ultra-neoliberal uPaulo Guedes wabizwa ngokuba ngusihlalo we-NDB kwiNtlanganiso ka-Epreli yoNyaka ka-2019 eKapa, โโngelo xesha indima kaGuedes kurhwaphilizo olunxulumene nomhlalaphantsi yayisiya icaca ngakumbi.
Kodwa iimeko zoqoqosho olukhulu ziya kuba nezigqibo, kwaye apha - kanye njengoko kukwibala leziko elachazwa nguStern (2013) - kwakhona kubonakala ngathi i-BRICS ayikho. ezizezinye, kodwa endaweni yoko i iamplifier, yenkcaso edalwe ngaphakathi kwi-Western-centric capitalism (Bond and Garcia 2015). Ngaloo mxholo, i-New Developmentalism ayiyonto yokunyanga le mikhwa, ityhila ukuqwalasela izifundo ezibanzi zolawulo lukaLula.
Uphuhliso olunzima kunye ne 'Lula Moment' enzima
Ukusekwa kwe-Fortaleza kowama-2014 kwe-NDB kuphakamise ulindelo lokuba i-BRICS inokuvelisa amandla amatsha anika umdla: ukwaphula ulawulo lwezemali olumazwe ngamazwe ngamaZiko e-neoliberal Bretton Woods, nolawulo lwawo lokuthenga ngetyala olunemiqathango olukhule emva kwentlekele yezemali yowama-2008. Iibhanki ezixhaswa ngaseNtshona ziye zalawula kungekuphela nje abantu abahlwempuzekileyo kodwa noqoqosho olusakhulayo (umzekelo, iArgentina kutshanje) - kanye njengakwiminyaka yoo-1980 - kunye namazwe ambalwa atyebileyo (iPortugal, i-Ireland, iGreece kunye neSpain) esandula ukuwela kwintlekele.
I-Brazil's New Developmentalism, ngokuchaseneyo, ibandakanya amanqanaba anyukayo okubandakanywa koluntu kunye nokungalingani okuphantsi, okuhambelana nokuziqhelanisa ngempumelelo nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe. Inkuthazo yeNew Developmentalism yokuthunyelwa kwemveliso kumazwe angaphandle inxulunyaniswe ngokusondeleyo nemiba emine yoqoqosho olukhulu, yezemali neyemali:
- amaxabiso otshintshiselwano ahlayo, xa kujongwa umkhethe kukungayixabisi imali yelizwe kwaye ngaloo ndlela ugcine imivuzo enxulumeneyo isezantsi;
- ukuncipha kwentsilelo karhulumente kwinkcitho yangoku (hayi eyinkunzi) ukuze kuthintelwe ukuxinana kwenkxaso-mali kutyalo-mali lwecandelo labucala;
- ukuzinikela ekusekweni kweziseko ezingundoqo ezitsha; kwaye
- izinga lenzala elisezantsi ngokwentelekiso.
EMzantsi Afrika nakwamanye amazwe ambalwa asakhasayo, ezi ngcamango ziphembelele iingxoxo-mpikiswano malunga neenguqu ezifunekayo zomgaqo-nkqubo, ngakumbi apho ukukhula koo-2000 kwanika indawo eyaneleyo yoqoqosho lokuzama imiba yeNew Developmentalism.
Kwi-phraseology yaseRhawutini, ngexesha lokuphakama kwegunya leQeqe lika-Worker ngo-2013-14, umnqweno we-'Lula Moment' wavakaliswa zizifundiswa ezikhokelayo zomgaqo-nkqubo wasekhohlo kunye neemanyano zabasebenzi ezivela eMzantsi Afrika naseBrazil ngokufanayo, zikhokelwa nguChris Hani weQela lamaKomanisi. Iziko. Ukuqinisekisa ukuba, uLula Moment advocacy naye watsala ukugxekwa, ngakumbi njengokuba yayiliqhinga elixhaswe yintanda-bulumko engazinzanga 'yombutho'. Ethelekisa iBrazil nesakhono soMzantsi Afrika, umphengululi uBen Fogel wakhalaza esithi, uLula โuye wasilela ukwakha inkcubeko entsha yezopolitiko ngohlaziyo lomgaqo-siseko nezopolitiko okanye ngokuqubisana namajelo eendaba anobutshabaโ kwaye endaweni yoko, โwenza umanyano nabarhwebi bamagunya bommandla abonakeleyo nabasabelayo, ukwamkela isithethe saseBrazil sokuxhasa ngokwezopolitiko ukuze sifumane amandla eziko ngokulahlekelwa yimibutho yabasebenzi namahlakani emibutho yasekuhlaleni.โ
Ingxoxo-mpikiswano yoMzantsi Afrika ibingqamene nokugxothwa kowona mbutho mkhulu wabasebenzi โ iNational Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa) enamalungu angama-350,000 XNUMX โ kumfelandawonye wemibutho yeli lizwe ngenxa yokuba ubushiywe kakhulu. Ngoko ke umahluko wawungowokuba 'umzuzu weNumsa' owawunokubakho owawunokutshintsha kakhulu ubunini bomgangatho ophakamileyo woqoqosho.
Ngo-2014, usoqoqosho wezopolitiko waseBrazil u-Alfredo Saad-Filho waxoxa ukuba ukungafani kweemeko phakathi kwala mazwe mabini kufuna ukuchaneka ngakumbi xa kuhlalutywa: "Imizamo yokwakha 'umzuzu weNumsa' eMzantsi Afrika izakujongana nobunzima obukhulu kunobo babujongene ne-PT kunye norhwebo. iimanyano (CUT) eBrazil, emva phaya ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1980. UMzantsi Afrika sele udlule kwinguqu kwidemokhrasi nakwineoliberalism, ngelixa iPT kunye neCUT zavela phambi kwezi nguqu zimbini. Idemokhrasi yezopolitiko neneoliberalism ibe neziphumo ezibi kakhulu kuqulunqo, umanyano oluphilayo kunye namandla okuhlanganisa abasebenzi phantse kuyo yonke indawo. Ke ngoku umceli mngeni mkhulu, kodwa intshukumo yabasebenzi kunye nenxele eMzantsi Afrika nazo zomelele kakhulu kunakuqala eBrazil. Inqaku, ke, kukwakha ipolitiki ekhohlo kunye ne-hegemony yabasebenzi, kunokuba ibe phantsi kobunkokheli bengqondo yamacandelo odidi oluphakathi, okanye i-economic hegemony yoohlohlesakhe basekhaya, njengoko kwakunjalo 'kwiLula Moment' eBrazil. .โ
Nangona kunjalo, nokuba uMzantsi Afrika kufanele balandele le ndlela, ngakumbi kuqoqosho olukhulu, phakathi koo-2010 bekusele kuncinci ukuba sibe nethemba, kulo naliphi na ilizwe. UMzantsi Afrika uye wabandezeleka kwi-kleptocracy ukususela ngo-2009-18 phantsi kobunkokeli bukaJacob Zuma, edibanisa intetho-ntetho yasekhohlo yabantu-abaphuhlisi boluntu kunye neniyoliberalism ehamba ngasekunene kunye nobuqhophololo obuninzi.
Okumangalisayo kukuba, eBrazil, u-2013 ujike kwineoliberalism ngowalandela uLula, uRousseff, kwathetha ukuba inkxaso yoohlohlesakhe basekhaya kwi-PT yaguquka yaba ngumphunga, emva kokuba uqhanqalazo luka-2013-16 lonakalise ukuba semthethweni kwakhe kwaye lwehliselwa imvume yoluntu kwinani elinye. Uchaso lokuqala lwaphenjelelwa ngabalandeli basekhohlo ababenomsindo ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezithuthi zikawonke-wonke. Kodwa ubutshantliziyo benkqubela-phambili bukhawuleze boyiswa zizityebi zamaphiko asekunene okwathi phakathi ku-2016 kwakhokelela kubhukuqo-mbuso lwasepalamente ngokuchasene noRousseff ngusekela-mongameli wephiko lakhe lasekunene uMichael Temer kunye namahlakani akhe enkongolo.
Kuye kwabonakala ngencopho yemveliso yorhwebo ngo-2011 ukuba ixesha lokudityaniswa kwehlabathi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto zorhwebo kunokuzisa kakhulu eBrazil. Ngelixa kwithuba lika-1998-2004, ubukhulu becala phantsi kolawulo lukaFernando Henrique Cardoso, iBrazil yaqhuba urhwebo/GDP ratio ukusuka kwi-15 ukuya kuma-30 epesenti, lo mlinganiselo wokudityaniswa wehla waya kuma-24 epesenti ngo-2017. (Amanye amazwe e-BRICS' urhwebo/i-GDP ratios nayo yehle ngokuphawulekayo, emva kokuphakama ngexesha lika-2000-08, yehla nangakumbi kunokwehla kwehlabathi, ukusuka kuma-61 ukuya kuma-56 ekhulwini.)
Ukudityaniswa kwehlabathi ngoku kuya kusiba mbi ngakumbi, kuthekani ngokhuseleko lukaTrump lwase-US. Umbutho wezoRhwebo weHlabathi (2019) urekhode ukwehla okumangalisayo kwi-2018 WTO Index yorhwebo, kubandakanya nokuwa kwesalathiso se-6.3 yeepesenti (unyaka nonyaka ukusuka ngoDisemba 2017), kunye ne-7.9 yeepesenti kwiiodolo zokuthumela ngaphandle, kunye nokuphinda kabini. iingozi zedijithi kwimfuno yeemoto (-10.3 ekhulwini) kunye nombane (-12.9 ekhulwini).
Ixesha le-Workers Party lanika i-Brazil ngokubandakanyeka ngakumbi kunye (ngokufutshane) nokukhula kokukhula okukhokelwa yimpahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle, okulandela i-New Developmentalism ka-Bresser-Pereira. Kodwa eli yayingelilo kuphela ilizwe laseLatin America elibonelela ngezifundo zophuhliso. Ukongeza, kube yimpumelelo - kunye neendlela ezibukhali ngakumbi - kunxibelelwano lwelizwe jikelele-kwindawo ingakumbi ngokunxulumene nezezimali.
Ezemali ezijonge imali
Ezinye iindlela ezimandla zibandakanya ukusilela kuMatyala aMatyala (umzekelo yi-Ecuador ngo-2009, ngenxa yovumo lwaseNorway lokuba iimali-mboleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa zonakele) kunye nolawulo olungqingqwa lotshintshiselwano lokumisa ukuqukuqela kwemali ngokungekho mthethweni (umzekelo, iVenezuela ngo-2003). Kwakukho nesiphakamiso (esisazalwa) seBhanki yaseMazantsi ngu-Hugo Chavez eyayiza kufaka i-ajenda eqinile yophuhliso kunye nokusingqongileyo kwintsebenziswano yaseMzantsi-South. Zonke ezi zicwangciso zobuchule zivele ngenkxalabo enkulu: ukuqonda okunzulu malunga nendlela amatyala angaphandle anokuthi aphelise ngayo amabhongo ophuhliso, njengoko abantu baseLatin America kunye nawo onke amanye amazwe eHlabathi leSithathu ekhumbulayo ukusukela kwiminyaka yoo-1980-90s.
Kunyaka ophelileyo, uBresser-Pereira waphawula ngenye yezona mpawu zibalulekileyo zeendlela ezintsha, ezizezinye zokuxhasa imali, ezikukuthelekisa ii-asethi kunye namatyala xa kufikwa kwimali ekubolekwayo ngayo: โI-NDB, ibhanki elawulwa ngamazwe e-BRICS, yachaza isiphakamiso sokulandela lo mgca wesenzo. Ezinye iibhanki zamazwe ngamazwe, ngakumbi iBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseAsia, iQumrhu lezeMali laMazwe ngaMazwe kunye neBhanki yehlabathi sele ibolekisa ngemali yalapha ekhaya. Ngoba? Ngaba iya kuba yinkxalabo entsha malunga nokungahambelani kwemali kunye nophuhliso lweemalike zenkunzi zalapha ekhaya?โฆ iMultilateral Banks iguqukela kwiimali zangaphakathi kuba abathengi bazo badla ngokuba ziinkampani zabucala ezixhathisayo ekuthatheni iimali-mboleko ngemali enzima ukuthintela imingcipheko enaniselwano lwangaphandle. โ
Uqhube wathi, โOkwesibini, kuba emva kwentlekele yezemali yaseAsia ngo-1997, amazwe amaninzi, ngakumbi amazwe aseAsia, abona umngcipheko wentlekele yezemali obandakanyekayo ekungeneni ematyaleni kwimali yangaphandle kwaye aqala ukuqokelela oovimba abakhulu bamazwe ngamazwe. Okwesithathu, ngenxa yokuba, emva kwemizamo eyintlekele yokukhula ngamatyala angaphandle (ulondolozo lwangaphandle) eyacetywa yi-Washington Consensus ukusuka ekuqaleni koo-1990 (kanye emva kokuba ingxaki enkulu yamatyala angaphandle koo-1980 yoyiswa), oorhulumente bamazwe asaphuhlayo babuyela emva Umgaqo-nkqubo wokugcina i-akhawunti yangoku ilungelelene okanye inentsalela, njengoko iTshayina ibisenza ixesha elide.โ
Kodwa umbono weBresser-Pereira awuzange ufezekiswe nge-NDB. Omnye umthetheleli ophambili wase-Asia kurhulumente wophuhliso, u-Jomo KS, wayenomsindo xa ebuzwa kutshanje nge-NDB: โNdinqwenela ukuba iibhanki zophuhliso ezintsha ezinamazwe ngamazwe zingakhalipha, kodwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, zikhethe ukusebenza phantsi kwenkqubo-sikhokelo eyongameleyo equlunqwe yinkqubo-sikhokelo yophuhliso. Washington Consensus, mhlawumbi ukukhusela ukuzithemba kwimarike. "
Uphuhliso lokwenene?
Akukho nanye kwezi ebinokothusa abakhi-mkhanya abasele benamava kumahluko phakathi kwabantu abakhethekileyo beBRICS kunye neemfuno zoluntu kunye nokusingqongileyo. Njengoko isazi ngezoqoqosho eseDelhi esekwe eDelhi uPrabhat Patnaik waxela kwangaphambili ngo-2014, โUmbuzo weBhanki ye-BRICS awunakuhlahlelwa ngaphandle kokubhekisa koohlohlesakhe abakhulu bamazwe e-BRICS, njengoko abahlalutyi bephantse benzile. Ngamanye amazwi ubume bodidi lwaba lawulo bunempembelelo ebalulekileyo kulwalathiso oluya kulandelwa yiBhanki ye-BRICS: ingaba iBhanki ye-BRICS kunye ne-CRA ziya kuba ngumzekelo nje weBhanki yeHlabathi kunye ne-IMF kunye nabathunywa begunya abasuka โphezulu. "kumagunya eBRICS, okanye baya kwandisa igumbi lengqiniba lamazwe aseMazantsi."
U-Patnaik uqhubeke wathi, "Amazwe amaninzi e-BRICS ngokufutshane aye ahlangana ne-impiriyali ekhokelwa yi-US ukumosha isindululo sokuzisa amazwe aseMazantsi phambili "kulawulo lwezoqoqosho lwehlabathi", ade avuselela i-IMF eyayisele ingasebenzi ngale njongo. . Ukucinga ukuba la mazwe manye ngoku aza kuma noMzantsi, ngeBhanki ye-BRICS, ukuze akhulule i-impiriyalizim, yinto nje engenamsebenzi.โ
Ukucinga ukuba i-BRICS kunye nabaphezulu behlabathi banokukhutshwa ngenye imini, ngaba indlela eyahlukileyo yefilosofi inokwenzeka? UJohn Maynard Keynes wanikela ngowona mgaqo ubalaseleyo: โNdivelana nabo bajongela phantsi, endaweni yabo baza kwandisa uxinezeleko lwezoqoqosho phakathi kwezizwe. Izimvo, ulwazi, inzululwazi, ububele, ukuhamba - ezi zizinto ekumele ukuba ngokwendalo yazo zibe zezamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa iimpahla mazipheliswe ekhaya nanini na kunokwenzeka kwaye, ngaphezu kwako konke, imali mayibe yelizwe. โ
Loo ndlela ithetha uhlobo oludala lophuhliso, olusebenzisa ulawulo oluluqilima lotshintshiselwano, olulungelelanisa amacandelo ahlukeneyo oqoqosho ngotshintsho lwemizi-mveliso ephuma kumazwe angaphandle, ethi ke ngoko ibe nethuba elikhulu lokuhlangabezana neemfuno ezisisiseko zoluntu ngendlela ekhathalela indalo esingqongileyo, neyamkele izakhono. nabasebenzi abangaqeqeshwanga baye elunxwemeni lwayo.
Akukho namnye kwiBRICS olandela esi sicwangciso ngoku, kodwa kwixesha elizayo, abezopolitiko bamazwe abo abaqhubela phambili baya kuyiqaphela imfuneko yokuhamba kwicala lophuhliso lokwenene. Iimpawu zokusabela, ezisilelayo ze-ajenda yohlaziyo lolawulo lwezimali lwe-BRICS kunye namaziko aya kuthi emva koko aphelelwe yimbali, apho afaneleka khona.
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