Kukho isivumelwano esibanzi phakathi kwabahlalutyi bezopolitiko ukuba uDonald Trump ngumntu owahlukileyo kwimbali yezopolitiko yase-United States- kwaye enye eyingozi ngokukodwa ngokunjalo. UDavid Frum kutshanje Inqaku elimnandi kwiAtlantiki elinesihloko esithi "Indlela yoKwakha i-Autocracy," kunye neWashington Post kaJohn McNeill ucebise kulo nyaka uphelileyo ukuba. UTrump "wayengumntu othanda u-fascist,” ngokutsho kwemigaqo eqinileyo ehlanganiswe “yinkitha yababhali-mbali nezazinzulu ngezobupolitika.”
Njengomdlali ohlekisayo uJon Stewart kutshanje ku-“The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,” “Asizange sijongane nale nto ngaphambili: isiphithiphithi esinenjongo, sokuziphindezela.”
Kukho izizathu ezininzi ezikhawulezayo zokuba nexhala malunga nomongameli weTrump, ukusuka "kukuvalwa kwakhe kwamaSilamsi" okuya kuthi phantse ngokuqinisekileyo. bandise ubunqolobi ekuqhelekeni kwakhe kwe-epistemology embi, ethathe uhlobo lweendaba zobuxoki, "iinyani ezizezinye" kunye neethiyori zeyelenqe. Kodwa kuthekani ngozinzo lwexesha elide lwedemokhrasi yaseMelika? Zinokuba yintoni iziphumo zemigaqo-nkqubo kaTrump kwizizukulwana ezincinci phakathi kwethu? Ngaba idemokhrasi yethu ingatshona kulawulo lwentando yesininzi, njengoko abanye besoyika?
Ukuphendula le mibuzo, ndiye ndaqhagamshelana UBruce Bueno de Mesquita kwaye Alastair Smith, oonjingalwazi kwiYunivesithi yaseNew York kunye nababhali abasebenzisanayo “Incwadi yeNcwadana kazwilakhe.” Yapapashwa ngo-2011 kodwa ibaluleke kakhulu kunangaphambili, le ncwadi ibonelela ngophononongo olunika umdla lwendlela abantu abazuza ngayo kwaye bazigcinele ulawulo kumacandelo amagunya afana noorhulumente namaqumrhu. Ukufumana umbono omangalisayo wezimvo zabo, ndikhuthaza abafundi ukuba babukele "Imithetho Yabalawuli,” ividiyo esekelwe “kwiNcwadi yeNgqondo kaDictator” eyasasazeka kulo nyaka uphelileyo.
Ndaqhagamshelana noBueno de Mesquita kunye noSmith phezu kwe-Skype ngengxoxo yemizuzu engama-38. (Olu dliwano-ndlebe luhlelwe kancinci ukuze lucace;
Ngokoluvo lwakho, ngowuphi owona mahluko ubalulekileyo phakathi kwedemokhrasi nozwilakhe?
Alastair Smith: Sithanda ukucinga ngabo njengabangahlukanga kodwa bakhona ngokuqhubekayo. Babelana ngeempawu ezininzi. Phezulu kumbutho kukho umntu ofuna ukuhlala encotsheni yombutho, kwaye ke bavelisa imigaqo-nkqubo efumana abantu ababenza bakwazi ukuhlala apho ukuze bamxhase. Ngoko ke umahluko liqondo lobukhulu malunga nokuba bangaphi abantu obadingayo.
Ukuphumelela ubumongameli e-US, ujonge amashumi ezigidi zabavoti, nangona inani lincinci kakhulu kunokuba unokulindela kuqala ngenxa yeKholeji yoNyulo. Ufuna kuphela izihlalo ezimbini ezinesiqingatha kwizithili ezisemdeni wamazwe aseludinini. Kodwa iseyinani elikhulu kakhulu. Ngelixa kwindawo efana neNorth Korea, siye saba neengcali ezixoxa nathi malunga nokuba ngaba ngabantu abali-11 ababaluleke ngokwenene kwaye ingaba umntu we-12 ubaluleke kangakanani na okanye hayi.
Ke kuthi, azahlukanga ngokwendalo, zahluke nje ngesikali. Imilinganiselo esisiseko yezopolitiko iyafana: Ufuna ukugcina amandla kwaye ufuna abaxhasi ukuba bakugcine kulawulo; umbuzo ngowokuba bangaphi abaxhasi ofunekayo ukuze wenze oku.
Zeziphi iimpawu zoluntu olusuka kwenye lusiya kolunye — masithi, idemokhrasi ingena kubuzwilakhe, nto leyo abantu abaninzi abayixhalabeleyo namhlanje?
UBruce Bueno de Mesquita: Umba ophambili kukuba bangaphi abantu ekufuneka inkokeli ixhomekeke kubo kwaye ihlale yonwabile ukuze ingaphelelwa ngamandla. Ukuze ulawulo lwentando yesininzi lube yidemokhrasi, ngumbuzo wokwandisa inani labantu omele uphendule kubo. Ukuze idemokhrasi ibe yintando yesininzi, ngumba wokuxhomekeka kubantu abambalwa. Kodwa oku akuyonkqubo yomgca.
Ukuba ndinokuba nobuchule obuncinci: Xa uxhomekeke kubantu abambalwa kakhulu, bafumana izibonelelo ezininzi zabucala. Njengoko uqala ukwandisa inani labantu oxhomekeke kubo, baya beba mbalwa kwaye beba mbalwa izibonelelo zabucala ngelixa uluntu lufumana ngakumbi nangakumbi uncedo loluntu. Ekugqibeleni izibonelelo zoluntu ziye zigqithise izibonelelo zabucala kwaye nabaxhasi bangcono kunaphantsi kwe-autocracy. Xa oku kwenzekile, akukho nkuthazo yokubuyela umva kuba abantu baya kwenziwa babe mbi ngakumbi kunokuba babengcono. Ke iidemokhrasi eziqolileyo azibi negunya. Bangaguquka kancinci kwaye babe ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi kwedemokhrasi, kodwa ababi buzwilakhe. Inene, ukuba sithetha ngedemokhrasi evuthiweyo, apho amaziko akhoyo, ikhona ze yenzeka ngaphambili. Oku kunika ithemba elincinci.
Sendiyithethile loo nto, asiyonto inqabileyo ukuba oomongameli bonyulwe ngaphandle kwevoti yesininzi. Enyanisweni, ixhaphake kakhulu. Kwaye kukho iimeko ezininzi zoomongameli abalahlekelwa yivoti ethandwayo: Umzekelo, uGeorge W. Bush kunye URutherford B. Hayes. Kodwa kwimeko kaTrump, inani labavoti ababalulekileyo, ababalulekileyo abaxhasayo yenze umahluko phakathi kokuphumelela nokuphulukana nabantu abamalunga nama-70,000 kuphela. Ukuba uTrump unokugcina abo bantu bangama-70,000 bonwabe ngokwenene, kwaye agcine inxalenye ekhululekileyo yomanyano lwakhe lonwabile ngokwaneleyo, ngoko unokwenza okuninzi akufunayo.
Ulifumene njani inani lama-70,000?
Bueno de Mesquita: Linani leevoti - iivoti ezithile - eziya kufuneka zihanjiswe kwiKholeji yoNyulo ukuba iye kuHillary Clinton kunokuba uDonald Trump. UTrump ubeke iivoti zakhe, ngaloo ndlela, ngokufanelekileyo. UAbraham Lincoln, ngendlela, wahambisa into efana neevoti ze-7,000. Ukuba wayengenzanga oko, uStephen Douglas ngewayengumongameli! ULincoln wayesebenza ngokumangalisayo ekuguquleni iivoti zibe yiloyiso.
Ngokombono wakho, ibuhlungu kangakanani into yokuba uDonald Trump abonakale egunyazisa amaphephandaba? Umzekelo, Trump ebizwa ngokuba yi-CNN "iindaba zobuxoki," uSteve Bannon uxelele amajelo eendaba ukuze “igcine umlomo wayo uvaliwe.” Kwaye bobabini bachaze ngokuphindaphindiweyo amajelo eendaba "njengeqela eliphikisayo." Ngaba olu lutyhalo oluyingozi olusingise kulawulo oluphantsi lwedemokhrasi?
Smith: Abantu badla ngokucinga ukuba idemokhrasi imalunga nonyulo olukhululekileyo nolungenamkhethe. Kodwa idemokhrasi imalunga nokungaphezulu koko, ubuncinci kwindlela esizijonga ngayo izinto. Umzekelo, i-Iran eneneni inonyulo olukhululekileyo nolunobulungisa, kodwa kukho izithintelo zokwenyani zokuba ngubani onokubaleka. Kwaye kukho izithintelo zeendaba zokwenyani ngokunjalo.
Okubaluleke kakhulu kukuba abantu banamalungelo okuthetha ngokukhululekileyo kunye namajelo eendaba azimeleyo. Andiboni ukuba uTrump uphumelele ngakumbi ekwenzeni abeendaba bathule. Iyakhathaza into yokuba abaleke nenye yayo. Kodwa ngoku ubizwa ngokuba ngokusisiseko uhlala kwihlabathi le-post-factual apho ezi zinto azinamsebenzi. Ngoko ke, andizikhathazi kangako ekuhambeni kwexesha. Ukuba uTrump ebenokuqalisa ukuvala amaphephandaba aze awatshutshise, injalo indlela oozwilakhe abathanda ukwenza ngayo izinto: Abanini bamaphephandaba ababhangayo ukuba bashicilela amabali abangawathandiyo baze bavalele iintatheli. Andiqondi ukuba nabani na uyaqonda ukuba uTrump uza kuyenza le nto kwixesha elizayo. Abashicileli baya kuqhubeka bethetha ngeTrump; ngenene, uyabhala kwaye awuziva umngcipheko wokuba uhlolwe.
[Oku kuchanekile: Olona loyiko lwam ngoku luyasuswa.]
Bueno de Mesquita: Ndicinga ukuba kukho iintsika ezintathu kurhulumente ophendulayo. Zininzi izinto abantu Cinga nge njengokuba niziintsika, njengomthetho, landelani kwezi ntsika zintathu. Udinga inkululeko yokuhlanganisana, intetho ekhululekileyo kunye nokushicilela ngokukhululekileyo.
Oko kukuthi, abantu kufuneka babe kwindawo yokutshintshiselana ngolwazi kwaye bafumanise ukuba ayingabo bodwa abangayithandiyo into eyenziwa ngurhulumente - kwaye baququzelele kwaye balungelelanise ukuchasa urhulumente. Ezibini izoyikiso kushicilelo lwasimahla a) ziindaba zobuxoki, nangona “iindaba ezinengxolo” bezisoloko zixhaphakile, njengokuba ungabuyela kumaxesha obukoloniyali, uya kufumanisa ukuba oku bekuyinyani, kwaye b) ukuzivavanya: Xa uBannon esithi umshicileli mawuvale umlomo, uthetha ukuba nizivavanyile. Leyo yingozi yokwenyani kuba, ukuyibeka rhabaxa, iphephandaba alikho kwishishini lokuthetha inyani. Umshicileli ukwishishini lokuthengisa indawo yentengiso ukwenza imali. Ke ukuba ukuthetha inyani kuyajikeka kulityala, ke banokuqalisa ukuzivavanya. Ngokuqinisekileyo oko kwenzeka eHong Kong emva kokubuyela eTshayina.
Kwakukho into encinci yophawu olubi [kule veki] eyandenza ndaxhalaba: UMongameli uTrump wenze ukhetho lobulungisa beNkundla ePhakamileyo. kumboniso womdlalo ngokuzisa abagqatswa kunomntu omnye aza kumtyumba aze atyumbe omnye—ethoba isidima omnye. Ngokombono wam, ukuba bendilawula inethiwekhi okanye iphephandaba, ingxelo yam ibinokuthi "uMongameli uTrump wonyule uNeil Gorsuch kwiNkundla ePhakamileyo." Ndinga hayi baye banika umboniso kamabonwakude we-farce njengoko zonke iinethiwekhi zenza kuba bebesondla nje upapasho lukaTrump olungezizo iindaba. Ndiye ndafumanisa ukuba ixhala kancinci.
Kodwa eyona isoyikiso inkulu kukuba kukho ukuphulukana nenkululeko yokuhlanganisana. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku le nkululeko isebenza kakuhle - abantu aboneleyo bebeqhanqalaza. Umzekelo, ekuqaleni kwale veki uTrump wayenyanzelisiwe ukuba ahlale kwi-White House kunokuba yiya eMilwaukee kwaye ujongane nenkcaso. Nantso into emele yenzeke: Abantu kufuneka bakhuthalele ukwazisa ukuba baxhalabile.
Ukuchaza iBarry Goldwater kwakudala kakhulu, ukuqapha lixabiso lenkululeko. Ukuba abantu bahlala nje bathi, "Ewe, iidemokhrasi azibi zii-autocracy, ngoko akufuneki ndikhathazeke." Abantu kufuneka basebenzise inkululeko yokuhlanganisana, basebenzise amaphepha-ndaba asimahla kunye nentetho ekhululekileyo ukwenza ukuba amalungu eNkongolo abize imali eninzi ukuze ahambisane nento efunwa ngumongameli xa ekholelwa ukuba yimpazamo. Amalungu eCongress kufuneka akholelwe ukuba isoyikisa unyulo lwabo kwakhona ukuba lube ngumqobo kuTrump.
Ke yintoni ekukhathazayo kakhulu malunga nolawulo lukaTrump?
Smith: Ndinexhala kakhulu malunga nemigaqo-nkqubo anokuthi ayiphumeze, kunokuba ibe nzulu, utshintsho lwexesha elide kwiziko. Iinkundla zizimele kwaye sele sizibonile zigweba ukuba ezinye zemigaqo-nkqubo kaTrump ayikho mthethweni. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, ewe, uTrump unokuvala iinkundla. Uzwilakhe uvala iinkundla kwaye asuse inkundla ezimeleyo. Kodwa loo nkqubo ithatha ixesha. Ixesha elide eZimbabwe, URobert Mugabe eneneni yabanjwa ngokuchanekileyo kuba iinkundla bezizimele. Kwamthatha ixesha elide ukuba aphelise loo mandla. Ke uTrump akakho kwimeko yokuphelisa ngokupheleleyo iinkundla. Uza kushenxisa ugxininiso lomgaqo-nkqubo weNkundla ePhakamileyo, ekhathaza abantu abaninzi: Iza kuba nembono engqongqo ngakumbi. Kodwa ngokusisiseko akazukuzisusa iinkundla apho abantu banokufumana izigwebo ezizimeleyo ngokufanelekileyo.
Ngokumalunga nokutshintsha umthetho wonyulo, kwakhona oko kuya kuba nzima. AmaRiphabhlikhi ayakuthanda ukwenza oku. Bayayithanda i-gerrymander, ngokunjalo neeDemokhrasi, nangona [amaRiphabhlikhi] ebonakala ngathi anesandla esiphezulu ngoku. Bakwathanda nokuthintela ukufikelela kwabavoti, umzekelo, ukunciphisa inani labantu abaza kuvota ngokuchasene nabo. Kodwa ekupheleni kosuku, ngaba iiRiphabhlikhi kwiCongress ziya kuhamba kunye noTrump ejongela phantsi inkqubo yedemokhrasi? Loo nto ibonakala ingenakwenzeka kubo. Makhe sibe no "King Trump." Oku akukho mdla, ndicinga ukuba, kwiRiphabhlikhi kwiCongress.
Bueno de Mesquita: Ukuba ndiyakwazi ukubuyela kwimpendulo yokuqala ka-Alastair [ngasentla]. Sikhetha ukucinga ngeefom zolawulo njengento eqhubekayo, hayi i-dichotomy. Sixoxa ngamandla kwi “The Dictator’s Handbook” ukuba zonke iinkokeli zezopolitiko, ukuba azinyanzelwanga, zingakhetha ukuba ngoozwilakhe – bonke, uBarack Obama, uDonald Trump, uGeorge Washington, u-Abraham Lincoln. Ngoko izithintelo zifana nqwa no-Alastair oye wachaza: la maziko anzulu anzima kakhulu kwaye acotha ukutshabalalisa.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela