Umthombo: I-Counterpunch
Amaxabiso abathengi ngo-2021 anyuke ngepesenti ezisi-7 kulo nyaka uphelileyo, nto leyo eyenza oku kube kokonyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso omthengi kwisithuba seenyanga ezili-12 ukususela ngo-1982. Kutheni enyuka amaxabiso, ingakumbi amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi? Ngaba isiqendu sangoku sokunyuka kwamaxabiso sinxulumene nobhubhane? Ngaba umgaqo wolawulo-mali ondlongondlongo ngoyena nobangela wokunyuka kwamaxabiso? Yaye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kulichaphazela njani ihlabathi, ingakumbi abo bahluphekayo? Ngaba inokulawulwa?
U-Alastair Smith, ingcali yamazwe ngamazwe kwimiba yophuhliso oluzinzileyo lwehlabathi, ufuna ukunika iimpendulo kule mibuzo kolu dliwano-ndlebe lukhethekileyo lwaba Thunti. USmith ungumfundi ophezulu kwiYunivesithi yaseWarwick eNgilani kunye nophando olunxulumene neGlobal Drugs Policy Observatory kwiYunivesithi yaseSwansea, eWales.
I-CJ Polychroniou: Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunyuke ukuya kumanqanaba amangalisayo ngo-2021, kunye ne-US ifumana enye yokonyuka okukhulu, kwaye kubonakala ngathi iya kuqhubeka nokunyuka ngo-2022. Kutheni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwenzeka ngoku, kwaye kuchaphazeleka kangakanani ngubhubhane?
Alastair Smith: Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubonakala kuqhutywe ngokuvuleleka kwezorhwebo kunye nokukhula kwentsilelo yorhwebo kumashumi eminyaka akutshanje; ngokunyuka okuthe ngqo ukusuka kwi-2020, nangona ukucutheka okulinganiselweyo kokungeniswa ngaphandle ngexesha lobhubhani we-COVID. Abaqhubi abaphambili bale ntsilelo babandakanya ukwanda kwezibonelelo zoshishino kunye nezixhobo, ngokukodwa i-petroleum, iimveliso kunye neentsimbi. Oyena nobangela wokukhula kweendleko ibe kukunyuka kweendleko zothutho lwamazwe ngamazwe nezothutho lwasekhaya: iBaltic Dry Index (umlinganiselo weendleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa) iye yanyuka kakhulu, ngelixa amaxabiso aphezulu epetroli kunye nokunqongophala kwabaqhubi belori kweminye imimandla kunyusa amaxabiso eenqanawa. iinkonzo zothutho ezindleleni. Ke ngoko, ilifa lobhubhani - okwangoku londiswe lugonyo olucothayo kumazwe angenabo ubunzima bokugonyeka - lunayo kwaye lukhona. kuqikelelwe ukuba iza kuqhubeka iqhuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuya kutsho ngo-2022.
Amaxabiso okutya ehlabathi anyuke kakhulu kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Yintoni eqhuba ukonyuka kwamaxabiso okutya ewonke ngokukodwa?
Kubalulekile ukukhetha iseti yethu yedatha ukuze ihlalutywe ngokunzulu kwaye andikholelwa ukuba okwangoku sinokulingana okufanelekileyo.
Ingxelo ebalaseleyo evela kwi-UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) kunye nooRhulumente, kwaye ke ngoko amajelo eendaba kunye nokuqonda okubanzi koluntu, kukuba amaxabiso asezantsi anyuke kakhulu mva nje. Izihloko eziphambili zibalaselisa ukuba โamaxabiso okutya ehlabathi anyuke 'kakhulu' ngo-2021,โ kwisiseko sokuba i-FAO โIsalathiso samaxabiso oKutya, elandelela iinguqu zenyanga kumaxabiso ezizwe ngezizwe, i-avareji yamanqaku ayi-125.7 โ ukwanda kwepesenti ezingama-28.1 ngaphezulu kowama-2020. "
Nangona kunjalo, i-FAO ikwagcina isalathiso samaxabiso esahlukileyo, apho amaxabiso "aqhelekileyo" aguqulwa abe ngamaxabiso "okwenene". Esi salathiso sibonisa ixabiso elinxulumeneyo lokutya ekuhambeni kwexesha, kunye nomxholo woxinzelelo olubanzi lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngokwahlukileyo kwisalathiso samaxabiso aqhelekileyo, umlinganiselo wamaxabiso wokwenyani ubonisa ukuba amaxabiso okutya kumazwe ngamazwe ehlile phakathi kweminyaka yoo-1960 kunye nokujika kwewaka leminyaka, kodwa aqalisa ukunyuka kwakhona ukusuka kunyaka ka-2000. . Oku kuthetha ukuba kwi imiqathango yokwenyani, ukutya akukhange kuvele kubize kakhulu kulo nyaka uphelileyo okanye kunjalo, kodwa oko ukutya akufikeleleki kancinci ngo-2022 kunokuba ibinjalo kwimbali yanamhlanje.
[Umvuzo osiSiseko weHlabathi] uya kuxhasa ngenene kwaye uxhase uhlenga-hlengiso lwezoqoqosho kwaye unikeze indlela yexesha elide yokuthomalalisa ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso okuqhutywa ziindleko zangaphandle.
Ukujolisa kwiimpembelelo zokunyuka kwamaxabiso okwenene kumazwe ngamazwe, kufuneka sijonge kuxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwicandelo lokutya kodwa nakwiindleko ezibanzi zobomi. Siyazi ukuba ngaphandle kwalo lonke uphuhliso lwethu lwezentlalo nobugcisa, imveliso yokutya isengamaxhoba emozulu engalindelekanga nengalindelekanga. Oku kwenziwa mandundu sisiqendu samva nje seLa Niรฑa esiqhuba imozulu yokomisa kumazwe amaninzi athumela ukutya kwamanye amazwe. Kukwakho noxinzelelo oluzinzileyo kusetyenziso lomhlaba oludalwe yimfuno ye-biofuels - isiphumo esingathanga ngqo semeko kaxakeka yemozulu. Olunye umothuko wangaphambi kwe-COVID yayikukuqhambuka kweFiva yeHagu yaseAfrika, edale ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo zeprotheyini. Okunye okubalulekileyo, uxinzelelo lwamva nje luye lwanyuka iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa kwamanye amazwe - into eye yanyusa iindleko zazo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kulichaphazela njani ihlabathi kunye nabahluphekileyo ngakumbi?
Siyazi ukuba abantu abahluphekayo kunye namakhaya adla ngokuchitha umlinganiselo omkhulu womvuzo wabo ekutyeni kunamakhaya atyebileyo ngokwezimali. Oku kubonisa inyani ecacileyo yokuba ukutya sesona sidlo sityiwayo ngokuqondakalayo sibekwe phambili nakwabo bangathathi ntweni. Nangona kunjalo, kumxholo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokubanzi, kwiindleko zokutya kunye nezinye izinto eziyimfuneko, uninzi lwamahlwempu kumazwe anje nge-US kuye kufuneke ukuba akhethe phakathi kwenqanaba elisisiseko lezondlo kunye nezinye izinto eziyimfuneko, ezinje ngokufudumeza (umxholo ngokuxhomekeka ). Ngenxa yesi sizathu, siye sabona ukuthembela okukhulu ekuboneleleni kokutya okungxamisekileyo kumazwe, afana ne-US kunye ne-UK
Kwezinye iindawo, sinokuvuma ukuba ukungondleki kuye kwanda ukususela ngo-2014 njengoko oku oluqhutywa lungquzulwano, ukuxengaxenga kwemozulu, ukudodobala koqoqosho kunye nokuhla ekuthengeni igunya kwabahluphekileyo. Indlala ekhoyo ngoku eMadagascar yenze uqikelelo lokuba iya kuba ngumzekelo wokuqala owaziwayo kwihlabathi jikelele woku unxunguphalo oluqhutywa yimozulu. Olunye uhlalutyo luye lwakugxeka oku. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yezinga eliphantsi lomthamo wezoqoqosho kweli lizwe, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngokukodwa kwiimarike zerayisi, kunciphisa kuphela ukhetho lokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwasekhaya ngokungenisa ngaphandle.
Ngaba bukho nabuphi na ubungqina obubonisa ukuba inkcitho karhulumente inefuthe ekwenyukeni kwamaxabiso?
Impembelelo yenkcitho karhulumente kwixabiso lentengo iya kuxhomekeka kakhulu kwiimeko. Kuya kufuneka sithathele ingqalelo ubukhulu kunye neenkcukacha zenkcitho enjalo, inqanaba lokuvuleleka kulo naluphi na uqoqosho oluthile, kunye nezinye izinto eziguquguqukayo zoqoqosho. Iindleko zikarhulumente ziya kuba negalelo ekwenyukeni kwexabiso lentengo xa ezinye iimpembelelo zidala amandla anjalo. Kwezinye iimeko, apho inkcitho iphantsi koxinzelelo ngenxa yeemeko ezibanzi, ukonyuka okulinganiswe kakuhle kwinkcitho karhulumente kungasetyenziselwa ukudala imeko enqweneleka ngakumbi. Ubhubhani we-COVID ube ngumzekelo ocace gca woku, apho noorhulumente ababambelele kakhulu kwezopolitiko baye basebenzisa iimali zoluntu ukuxhasa uqoqosho ngothintelo oluyimfuneko ekusindiseni ubomi bomntu obuxabisekileyo buphazamisekile. Njengokuba kwakunjalo ngezi zinto, usathana usezinkcukacha.
Yeyiphi imigaqo-nkqubo ethile enokusetyenziswa ukuqulatha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso? Ngaba ikho indawo yolawulo lwamaxabiso olucwangcisiweyo kuqoqosho lwanamhlanje?
Kwakhona, ukuqulatha ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kunzima, kwaye imilinganiselo efanelekileyo iya kuxhomekeka kakhulu kwiimeko. Izinga lenzala lusetyenziswa ngokubanzi kulawulo lwamaxabiso olucwangcisiweyo olunxulumene ngokusondeleyo nokucinezela isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto kwaye kulindeleke ngokubanzi ukuba ezi ziza kuqala ukunyuka kungekudala.
Ngokubanzi, ibe nomdla e-UK Sinorhulumente weTory ozibophelele ngembono yokunciphisa inkxaso yengeniso kwabahluphekileyo. Iyandixaka into yokuba urhulumente ololo hlobo unoxanduva lokubhalisa elona nyathelo likhulu likawonke-wonke lokuboleka kunye nokuchitha kumashumi eminyaka. Ngelishwa, inyathelo elikhawulezileyo emva kokuba ubhubhane uye wenziwa ukunciphisa inkxaso yengeniso kunye nokongeza ezinye iimeko zokufaneleka okuqhubekayo - ezidala imiqobo eyongezelelekileyo yokwaneliseka kuninzi lwabona bahluphekayo.
Impendulo esengqiqweni ngakumbi kwabo babonakala bexhalabele "ukunyuka" bekuya kuba kukuqaphela ukuba kunokwenzeka ukuseta ulawulo lwexabiso lobuchule ukuze uluntu luhlawule abemi balo - ngamathuba e-Universal Basic Income (UBI). Oku kuya kuququzelela imarike yezemisebenzi ebhetyebhetye ngakumbi kwaye ivumele abantu ukuba batyale imali kuphuhliso lobuqu kumathuba amatsha navelayo. Ukuba bhetyebhetye kuya kuxhasa ngenene kwaye kuxhase uhlenga-hlengiso loqoqosho kwaye kubonelele ngenkqubo yexesha elide yokudodobala kokukhula kwamaxabiso okuqhutywa ziindleko zangaphandle. Utyalo-mali olunjalo aluyi kufuna ukuba luxhaswe ngetyala elongezelelekileyo: into esiyidingayo kubhubhani ka-2022 li-100 lepesenti eligudileyo, irhafu eqhubekayo, ayiluxanduva lolawulo lwamabhanti erhafu ahleliweyo. (Phantsi kwerhafu eqhubekayo yokwenene, izinga lepesenti liyanyuka njengoko ingeniso inyuka, mhlawumbi iphakame ukuya kuma-60 okanye ama-80 epesenti yerhafu yengeniso engaphezulu, yithi, i-1 yezigidi zeedola.) ulawulo kwixabiso lobumi belungu ngalinye loluntu lwethu. Kuphela olu hlobo lombono womgangatho wexesha elizayo onokuzisa inguqu kuqoqosho lwesizwe nolwehlabathi ukuya kozinza ngakumbi, imeko yoqoqosho oluzinzileyo oluyimfuneko kuzinzo lophuhliso lwabantu kulo mhlaba.
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