Utyelelo lwakutsha nje lwe-International Monetary Fund (IMF) uChristine Lagarde ePitoli (phakathi kweendawo zokumisa eGhana nase-Angola) luyamangalisa. Ngokuchaseneyo nebango le-IMF lengxelo yeendaba-“uMadame Lagarde uza kubamba iintlanganiso nabasemagunyeni, kunye neentlanganiso ezibanzi necandelo labucala, uluntu, izifundiswa, iinkokeli zabasetyhini, kunye namajelo eendaba”—kukho ulwazi olupheleleyo olungenanto. apha, kungekho ziganeko zoluntu zicwangcisiweyo.
Ingxoxo kawonke-wonke evulekileyo, engafihlisiyo malunga nembali ezisolayo ye-IMF kunye ne-ajenda yangoku ifuneka kakhulu, kwimeko apho abambalwa bezopolitiko abanyanisekileyo kunye namagosa bezabalaza kade ukubuyisela umva oko kubizwa ngokuba "kukubanjwa kombuso" kunye nokubuyisela imali ebiweyo kumhlawuli werhafu. Ukuphelisa ishumi leminyaka lokuphangwa ngowayesakuba nguMongameli uJacob Zuma kunye nobukhosi bakwaGupta (abazalwana abathathu abasuka kwamanye amazwe kunye namakhulu abantu abaxhonyiweyo) asingomsebenzi omncinci.
Yiyo loo nto mhlawumbi ngokungonwabi ukuba uLagarde adibane nenye yeenkokeli eziphambili emva kukaZuma/Gupta, uMphathiswa wezeMali uTito Mboweni, owathi kabini (ngo-2013 nango-2016) wathumela kuTwitter malunga netyala likaLagarde lobuqhophololo eFransi. Wafunyaniswa enetyala "lokungakhathali" ngokupha i-430 yezigidi zeedola kwi-tycoon-umseki we-Adidas uBernard Tapie-owanikela kwi-Conservative Party yakhe xa wayengumphathiswa wezemali (ngo-2017 wanyanzelwa ukuba abuyisele urhulumente waseFransi).
Imbuyekezo yorhwaphilizo ikwimo yasePitoli ngenene. Kwiinyanga ezimbini ezidlulileyo, uMboweni ungene endaweni kaNhlanhla Nene, owalahla phantsi elihlazo ngenxa yokuxoka ngeentlanganiso zakhe zakwaGupta ezisekhusini. Kodwa ngaba uMboweni ngokwakhe ulungiselela isivumelwano esiyimfihlo sebheyile, njengoko kwenzekileyo ngoDisemba ka-1993 xa i-IMF yanika i-850 yezigidi zeerandi mboleko-i-“Faustian Pact” (ngokutsho kowayesakuba nguMphathiswa wezobuNtlola uRonnie Kasrils) ezalise izithembiso ze-Washington Consensus—kumongameli ophumayo uFW. de Klerk, ukuze “abethelele ukuzithemba kwezemali kwihlabathi” kurhulumente kaMandela ozayo?
Emva kwezi- arhente ezi-5 ezinamandla kakhulu (nangona zirhanelwa) zigxeka uMzantsi Afrika “ngendledlana” kwiinyanga ezili-3 ezidlulileyo, uMongameli Cyril Ramaphosa uzame ngamandla ukubuyisela intembeko yabo. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko i-arhente enkulu yamandla kurhulumente u-Eskom ngoku izama ukulahla enye i-18 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwityala likaNondyebo kazwelonke, ingaba uRamaphosa ufuna ukurhoxiswa kwemali kumaZiko eBretton Woods?
Inene, eyona nto iphambili kukuba, ityala lika-Eskom langaphandle kwakhona lidala umonakalo, njengoko kwenzekileyo ngoJanuwari “kwileta engekaphunyezwa yokusilela ukuhlawula ityala evela kwiBhanki yeHlabathi” “enokuthi ibangele ukuba u-Eskom abuyelwe kwintaba yamatyala ka-Eskom,” njengoko watshoyo uCarol Paton. Usuku loShishino? (Indibano engxamisekileyo kaRamaphosa namagosa eBhanki eDavos kusuku olulandelayo kubonakala ngathi ithobile okwethutyana.)
Utyelelo lukaLagarde olungacacanga luyaphikisana nohambo lukaMongameli weBhanki yeHlabathi uJim Yong Kim ngaphambili, phakathi komlilo weGlobal Citizen ngokuchasene nentlupheko kulutsha olumalunga nama-90,000 kwibala lemidlalo laseSoweto: “Ndiyakuxelela, awunakuthemba nabani na ongaphaya kwamashumi amathathu eminyaka ubudala. ukumisela ikamva lakho!”
UKim ukwadibene noRamaphosa ukuze baxoxe, wathumela kuTwitter, ucwangciso lwedolophu kunye nogutyulo lwelindle (akukho kuzo eziya kufuna iimali-mboleko zeBhanki zase-US). Uphinde wahlohla kwiSikolo soLawulo seYunivesithi yaseWits malunga notyalo-mali loluntu, ngaxa lithile egxeka omnye owayesakuba linxele, umququzeleli wakhe, uSekela-Tshansela uAdam Habib, ngokuba “ngumfundi waseTrotsky.”
Ingaba iimali-mboleko eziya eMzantsi Afrika ezivela kwi-IMF nakwiWorld Bank ziyafuneka ngokwenene? Kwelinye icala, iinkokeli zabo zilapha emva kwengqungquthela yaseRhawutini kaJulayi, iBrazil-Russia-India-China-SA, nethe yaphinda yaphakamisa ithemba nge-ajenda yohlengahlengiso lolawulo lwezimali lwe-BRICS lwamazwe ngamazwe.
Umzekelo, ngaphandle koqhankqalazo olunomsindo lwamatshantliziyo obulungisa kokusingqongileyo kwi-ofisi yeZiko loMmandla we-Afrika, iBhanki eNtsha yoPhuhliso ye-BRICS (NDB) yakhawuleza yabhengeza iimali-mboleko kwii-arhente ezintathu zasekuhlaleni. Enye yezi, i-180 yezigidi zeedola zika-Eskom, “yayiyekile” ukusukela ngo-2016 ngenxa yeengcinga zesibini zika-CEO uBrian Molefe: wayechasa unxulumano lwemali-mboleko yamashishini abucala ahlaziyekayo kumbane ka-Eskom (endaweni yoko, uMolefe wayefuna ukuthatha ityala lenyukliya elithe chatha, nto leyo uMboweni—owayengumlawuli we-NDB ngelo xesha—wayivuma esidlangalaleni ngowama-2015, ngoxa wayeseRussia kwingqungquthela yaloo nyaka yeBRICS).
Amanye amakhredithi aye kuSiyabonga Gama wakwaTransnet (owagxothwa ngenxa yorhwaphilizo olunxulumene noGupta kwiiveki ezimbalwa kamva) nge-$200 yezigidi zeerandi ukuze kwandiswe izibuko lepetrochemical complex yaseThekwini—iprojekthi esele imisiwe ngenxa yobuqhetseba bokuthengwa kwempahla neenkonzo ngokungekho sikweni obubandakanya ifemu edume kakubi yase-Italiya (enganxulumananga ne- Guptas)—kunye neBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseMazantsi e-Afrika ngokuboleka i-300 yezigidi zeerandi koomasipala (kucingelwa ukuba kukho nabaphi na abanekhredithi abaseleyo, abakwaziyo ukuhlawula imilinganiselo yenzala ephezulu ngokwaneleyo ukuthethelela ukubolekwa kwemali-mboleko yemali-mboleko yeziseko ezingundoqo zasekuhlaleni).
Ucacisile umqhankqalazi we-Earthlife Africa uMakoma Lekalakala, owaphumelela iBhaso le-Goldman Environmental Prize lowama-2018 njengetshantliziyo elikhokelayo e-Afrika kulo nyaka, “Bobabini u-Eskom no-Transnet baphantsi koqwalaselo lobuqhophololo kunye nolawulo olugwenxa. Akukho lunyanzelo lwenziwayo kwimali-mboleko yakwaTransnet. Ukuba le yindlela esebenza ngayo ibhanki [yeBRICS], kufuneka sizimisele ukonakaliswa okukhawulezileyo kwemekobume ukuze sifumane inzuzo.”
Kodwa iBretton Woods Institutions ayikho ngcono, kwaye kwisithuba esingangonyaka odlulileyo, uRamaphosa uye wagxeka kabukhali umkhethe weWashington: “Masingangeni kwi-IMF kuba xa sithe sakwenza oko sikwindlela ehlayo, siya kube sincama ukuzimela kwethu. malunga nokulawula ilizwe lethu kunye nokuncama ulongamo lwethu.” Ubalule umngcipheko "wokucuthwa kwenkcitho yentlalontle" malunga nomyalelo we-IMF oqikelelwayo ku-Eskom "ukuba aphelise izabelo zombane zasimahla kwabangathathi ntweni nabangathathi ntweni."
URamaphosa usoloko ekhanyela ukuba iBretton Woods Institutions izawuhlangula uMzantsi Afrika: “IMF, hayi, asijongi i-IMF. IBhanki eNtsha yoPhuhliso inoncedo esinokulufumana kuthi. Kwaye siyayiphonononga loo nto ngokunjalo. Kwaye sifuna ukuyenza ngendlela engadingi siqinisekiso sizimeleyo. ” Ngokwenyani, uRamaphosa mhlawumbi ebengathethi ngeBRICS NDB, ebolekisa ngemali engqamene neprojekthi, kodwa endaweni yoko i-100 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi iContingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), enika uMzantsi Afrika ngetyala le-3 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ukuba utsale kwangoko, xa kuthe kwakho. ibhalansi-ye-intlawulo-mali ezingxamisekileyo.
Kwelinye icala, i-BRICS ijongeka ingahambelani kakhulu namhlanje kunangoJulayi, kuba inkokeli entsha yaseBrazil, uJair Bolsonaro, unokuphuma kwibloc kwaye, ubuncinci, uya kubethelela ngokuqinileyo ulawulo lwakhe kuDonald Trump. Nangona kukho iSinophobia esoloko ichazwa, iBolsonaro isandula ukuvuma ngokukrokra ukuqhubeka nokujikeleza kwe-BRICS yokubamba ingqungquthela yabaphathi bamazwe (nangona oku kunokwenzeka kuphela eBrasilia ngoNovemba ozayo). Kuya kubakho isiphithiphithi se-geopolitical sikaTrump, ezoqoqosho kwaye ngakumbi indalo eqala nge-1 kaJanuwari xa esiba ngumongameli, njengokuhamba phezu kweAmazon.
Kodwa xa kuthelekiswa noNovemba, bambalwa abantu abangaphakathi endithethe nabo kutyelelo ekuqaleni kwale nyanga (kubandakanya owayesakuba nguMphathiswa Wezangaphandle uCelso Amorim) boyika ukuba iBolsonaro iya kuyinciphisa ibloc iye kwi-RICS ngokusebenzisa “i-Braxit,” ngendlela asanda kwenza ngayo kwi-UN Framework Convention. Ingqungquthela yoTshintsho lweMozulu. (Umanduleli wakhe uMichel Temer wayevumile ukuyibamba eBrazil ngasekupheleni konyaka olandelayo, kodwa iChile ngoku iza kuthatha indawo.)
Umahluko osoloko uxelwa phakathi kwee-ajenda zeBRICS neWashington, njengoko zichazwe ngumbhali kaZuma uGayton Mckenzie, umzekelo, kuyo nayiphi na imeko ubukhulu becala yayiyintsomi. Ukusukela ngo-2014, uLagarde uwonwabele amandla okuxhasa ngemali ababoleki-mali be-BRICS abangxamele ngakumbi (hayi nje i-SA, kodwa ne-Brazil ne-Russia zinengxaki ye-junk status), kuba amaNqaku eSivumelwano se-CRA achaza ukuba ukuba iPitoli (okanye nawuphi na omnye umboleki ufuna) kwi-7 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ezilandelayo kwinkxaso-mali ye-BRICS phakathi koluhlu lwesabelo se-CRA ezibhiliyoni ezili-10, kufuneka kuqala ifumane inkqubo yohlengahlengiso lwe-IMF.
Ukuba iPitoli idinga inkxaso-mali ukuze kuhlawulwe amatyala amaninzi angaphandle ngo-2019, ngaba olu luntu lonakeleyo lungakwazi ukumelana ne-IMF, xa kujongwa ngolu suku lwe-Business Day esele luyibiza ngokuba “lumanyano lwemali olukhohlakeleyo luka-2018”? Inkxaso-mali ethotyiweyo yeziseko ezingundoqo ishiye nkqu neoliberal eqinisekisiweyo, uSodolophu waseRhawutini uHerman Mashaba, ekhala ngokuthotywa kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali lukaNondyebo lwama-65 epesenti kwinkqubo yezindlu yesixeko.
Kwinqanaba lehlabathi, amaziko ezezimali e-BRICS akafikeleli kwiimfuno ezinkulu zebheyile eziyimfuneko ukuba ukudodobala kwezemali okufana no-1998 no-2008 kuphinde kuvele kwiiveki ezizayo, umzekelo ngenxa “yengozi enzima” elindelwe yiBritane evela kwiManyano yaseYurophu nge-29 kaMatshi. kwanezi veki zisandul’ ukuxengaxenga kwezoqoqosho, imali yaseMzantsi Afrika ibiyeyona iguquguqukayo kwihlabathi (kweyona ntengiso engama-31). IRandi iqhubekile nokugruzuka ngenxa yokuba uMphathiswa wezeMali uMalusi Gigaba ngoFebruwari ka-2018 wanyenyisa ulawulo lotshintshiselwano ngexabiso le-$43 yeebhiliyoni zenkxaso-mali yotyalo-mali yasekuhlaleni enokuthi ihambe eMzantsi Afrika ngoku. (Oko kubeka emxholweni isoyikiso sokuphuma kwi-7 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwi-Citibank's World Government Bond Index xa iMoody ekugqibeleni iwisa izembe kumlinganiselo wokhuseleko lwasekhaya.)
Nangona kunjalo, ngelixa siqhubeka sihlawula kufutshane ne-9 yepesenti yezinga lenzala yemali enzima kwi-10 yeminyaka yeebhondi zombuso (nangaphezulu kuneVenezuela), kuya kubakho abathengi abazimiseleyo-de kube ihlabathi elizayo lezemali linyibilikise amazinga aphezulu kakhulu. Kwaye nangona i-BRICS ibhuqa malunga nohlaziyo lwe-IMF ukuze kuncitshiswe umthwalo weemeko zomboleki, khange kubekho lutshintsho kwifilosofi yezoqoqosho phantsi kweLagarde. Okubi nakakhulu, i-Afrika ilahlekelwe amandla amakhulu okuvota kuhlengahlengiso lokugqibela lwe-quota, kwi-2015, kuquka iNigeria ngama-41 ekhulwini kunye noMzantsi Afrika ngeepesenti ze-21. Amazwe aphambili athe anyusa izabelo zawo ze-IMF yiChina (35 pesenti), iBrazil (23%), iIndiya (11 pesenti) kunye neRussia (8%).
Elinye iqhinga: ukulahlwa kweebhanki ezinobuqhophololo
Uhlaziyo lwe-IMF olushiya uninzi lwabantu base-Afrika lunelizwi eliphantsi luthathwa njengobuthathaka, uRamaphosa ngokwakhe wabonakala evuma kwintetho yakhe kwiZizwe eziManyeneyo ngoSeptemba, ekhalaza ukuba i-IMF kunye namanye amaziko ahlukeneyo “kusafuneka abunjwe ngokutsha kwaye aphuculwe ukuze abe nako ngakumbi. ihlangabezane ngempumelelo nemiceli mngeni yehlabathi langoku kwaye isebenze ngcono izilangazelelo zamahlwempu nabajongelwe phantsi.”
Ngenxa yokuba umdla wabo awubonelelwa nokuba yi-Washington's okanye i-NDB yokuboleka i-parastatal elite ezonakeleyo, "abahluphekileyo nabahlelelekileyo" bafuna esinye isicwangciso. Kanye njengokuba nangemihla yeJubilee 2000 yombutho wokuchasa amatyala, owawukhokelwe eMzantsi Afrika kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini eyadlulayo yimbongi engasekhoyo uDennis Brutus kunye noBhishophu omkhulu wamaTshetshi uNjongonkulu Ndungane, sithetha ngetyala, kwaye ngenene siphicotha, ityala loMzantsi Afrika langaphandle. Kubandakanywa ababoleki bamashishini aphantsi kunye nababucala (abo urhulumente aqinisekisa ukuba imali enzima iyafumaneka ukuze ihlawulwe), ityala langaphandle limi kwi-171 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ukusuka phakathi enyakeni (ukusuka kwi-25 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngowe-1994). Elo nani, iBhanki enguVimba yoMzantsi Afrika ebhengeze kwiveki ephelileyo, lehle malunga neepesenti ezisi-8 ukusuka kuMatshi ka-2018 kwi-183 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, kodwa kuphela ngenxa “yentsalela yokuthengiswa kweebhondi zikarhulumente zerandi kunye neziphumo zoqingqo-maxabiso.”
Abona matyala aphambili angaphandle kusenguEskom noTransnet. Banekhontrakthi, kule minyaka isibhozo idlulileyo, awona mali mboleko makhulu amathathu eMzantsi Afrika:
- ngo-2010, i-3.75 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ezivela kwiBhanki yeHlabathi, ingakumbi kwiziko lombane elibaswa ngamalahle eMedupi (isivumelwano apho usihlalo wakwa-Eskom uValli Moosa wagxekwa ngumkhuseli woluntu “ngokungafanelekanga” ukungqubana kwemidla ukusukela oko wahlala kwiKomiti yezeMali ye-ANC, ngexesha lorhwaphilizo olubi lwe-Hitachi yeqela elilawulayo);
- ngo-2013, i-5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola evela kwiBhanki yoPhuhliso yase-China, ingakumbi i-Transnet yokuthenga amagalelo eziseko ezingundoqo asuka kumazwe angaphandle, ingakumbi kulwandiso olunobuqhophololo lwe-petrochemical eThekwini kunye nomzila kaloliwe wamalahle wokuthumela ngaphandle ukuya e-Richards Bay (amakhulu ezigidi zeerandi ayeyalelwe ngokungekho mthethweni nge-China South. Uloliwe oya kubukumkani bakwaGupta, kunye nemali-mboleko "yemali yempumelelo" evela kwimali-mboleko yaseTshayina); kwaye
- ngowama-2016, i-5 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi kwakhona evela kwiBhanki yoPhuhliso yase-China, ingakumbi eyenye ijenereyitha enkulu ka-Eskom, iKusile, eyayilungiselelwe nguMolefe yaze yahlaziywa kwingqungquthela ye-BRICS eSandton ngoJulayi ophelileyo.
Akukho nanye kwezi mali-mboleko enokuthetheleleka, ngakumbi kwimihlaba yendalo esingqongileyo—kuba zonke zinyusa ngokukhawuleza ityala lemozulu thina bemi boMzantsi Afrika esilityala izizukulwana ezizayo kunye, ngokungxamisekileyo, amaxhoba aseAfrika ala maxesha embalela nezikhukula ezimandundu. Ngaphezu koko, ngorhwaphilizo lokuthengwa kwempahla karhulumente oluxabisa kuluhlu lwe-35-40 yeepesenti kwinkontileka nganye, ngokutsho kwegosa elikhokelayo likaNondyebo ngo-2016, kukho imeko eqinile yokuphicothwa kwetyala elipheleleyo, ilandelwa yimfuno yokuba iBhanki yehlabathi, iBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseChina. , IBhanki ye-BRICS kunye nabanye ababolekisi nabo bathatha uxanduva.
Ngapha koko, i-Hitachi isebenzisana nephiko lotyalo-mali le-ANC ye-Chancellor House ikhokelele urhulumente wase-US ukuba ahlawulise inkampani yaseJapan malunga nezigidi ezingama-20 zeedola ngo-2015-ngokwaphulwa koMthetho wokuRhwaphiliza kwaNgaphandle kwa-Eskom-kwaye kungoko xa uMphathiswa wezaMashishini kaRhulumente uPravin Gordhan (onoxanduva lokuboleka imali. I-3.75 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngo-2010) kwiveki ephelileyo igxeke ukungasebenzi kakuhle kuka-Hitachi ngokucinywa komthwalo kwamva nje, oko kukodwa kufanele ukuba kubhengeze ukwala amatyala eBhanki yeHlabathi.
UJim Kim bekungafanelanga ukuba aphendule le mboleko inkulu-kwaye mhlawumbi imbi kakhulu kwimbali yeziko lakhe. Ipotfoliyo yeBhanki ikwabandakanya esona sabelo sikhulu kwisicwangciso-qhinga esidume kakubi se-CPS-Net1 “sokuqukwa kwezimali” ukuqweqwedisa izigidi zabemi boMzantsi Afrika abahluphekayo, kunye ne-150 yezigidi zeerandi zetyala+isabelo se-equity eLonmin okwathi kwade kwangaphambi kwendyikityha yokufa yaseMarikana ka-2012 (kungekudala emva koko. UKim waba ngumongameli) iBhanki yayibhiyoza njengelona tyala lilungileyo loxanduva loshishino eluntwini.
Yongeza kuyo yonke le nto isoyikiso esitsha seFaustian Pact 2.0 evela kwiLagarde ecela umngeni ngokuziphatha. Isidingo sombutho omtsha weJubilee sicacile. Onke amalinge akhoyo okulwa urhwaphilizo kufuneka aphunyezwe ngoko nangoko, kodwa ulindelo lwethu oluhlala luphantsi luthetha ukuba “iRamaphoria” yokwenyani—ekuthi ukuba inzulu ibandakanye ukuchaswa kwabaququzeleli bobuqhophololo bakwaGupta kunye ne-ANC, abafana neWorld Bank, China Development Bank kunye IBhanki ye-BRICS-yintelekelelo nje. Endaweni yoko, eyona meme echaza imeko yethu yangoku yolawulo, ngokwenene, yiRamazupta.
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UPatrick Bond yinjingalwazi yezoqoqosho kwezopolitiko kwiSikolo soLawulo saseWits.