Kufuneka uzitswebe. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, iLanga liye lagxeka iingcali zokusingqongileyo njenge "loonies" kunye "neendevu ze-eco". Kwiveki ephelileyo ipapashe โubungqina befoto bokuba utshintsho lwemozulu luyinyani.โ(1). Kwiphepha elinokuthi livele ngqo kwincwadana yeGreenpeace, yabeka โimithethoโ elishumi ukuze abafundi bayo bayilandele โ โSebenzisa izithuthi zikawonke-wonke xa kunokwenzeka; sebenzisa izibane ezonga umbane; cima izixhobo zombane eludongeni; Sukusebenzisa isixhobo sokomisaโฆโ(2).
Kwiiveki ezimbini ezidlulileyo, i-Economist nayo yarhoxa. Ngaphambili ibisithi โuMnu Bush ebenyanisile ukwala isivumelwano saseKyoto esibiza imali eninzi kakhuluโ(3). Yapapasha ngokudibeneyo amaphepha e-Copenhagen Consensus, abeka utshintsho lwemozulu ezantsi kuluhlu lwezinto eziphambili zehlabathi (4). Ngoku, kumbandela okhethekileyo onikelwe ekoyikiseni abafundi bayo, igxininisa ukuba "isilayi semveliso yehlabathi ekuya kufuneka sisetyenziselwe ukulawula izinto ezikhutshwayo mhlawumbi ... ngaphantsi kwe-1%."(5) Ifuna ikhabhoni. iirhafu kunye nenkqubo yamabhongo yenkcitho karhulumente.
Phantse kuyo yonke indawo, ukukhanyela ukutshintsha kwemozulu ngoku kujongeka kububudenge kwaye kungamkelekanga njengokuphika kweHolocaust. Kodwa andikabhiyozeli. Ingozi ayikukuba siya kuyeka ukuthetha ngotshintsho lwemozulu, okanye siqonde ukuba luzisa isoyikiso esikhoyo eluntwini. Ingozi yeyokuba siya kuthetha nathi kuBukumkani Buza.
Ukuba i-biosphere yonakalisiwe, ayizukwenziwa ngabo bangakwaziyo ukuyichaza loo nto, njengoko ngoku bengabo bambalwa abanciphayo. Iza kutshatyalaliswa ngabantu abalungileyo, abaneenjongo ezintle, abantu bezizwe ngezizwe abamkela ityala lokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo, kodwa abangayi kutshintsha nge-iota enye indlela abaphila ngayo. Ndiyabazi abantu abathi bakhathalele kakhulu ukufudumala kwehlabathi, kodwa ngubani oza kusela iDada leNdawo yangasese ngokukhawuleza kunokuba balahle i-agas yabo, izifudumezi zepatio kunye neeTV zeplasma, zonke ziyinkcitho ekhwankqisayo.
Incwadana enemifanekiso yakutshanje epapashwe yi-Co-operative Bank izidla ngokuba โinqaba yelangaโ yaseManchester โiya kuvelisa umbane owaneleyo nyaka ngamnye ukwenza iikomityi zeti ezizizigidi ezisi-9.โ Kwiphepha elingaphambili, ibongoza abathengi bayo โukuba baphile iphupha kwaye bathenge ikhaya leholide eligqibeleleyo โฆ โ(6)
Ngelixa ubume bemeko yendawo buhlala buphawulwa njengenkxalabo yodidi oluphakathi, kwaye ngelixa oku bekusoloko kungalunganga, ngoku kukho unxibelelwano olungenakuphikiswa lwezopolitiko zodidi kunye nokuziphatha okuphezulu komthengi. Abantu bazivumela ukuba bakholelwe ukuba ifuthe labo kwiplanethi lisezantsi kunelo lokungahlanjwanga okukhulu kuba bathenga e-Waitrose kune-Asda, bathenge i-tomme de savoie endaweni yezilayi zetshizi ezicutshungulweyo kwaye bathathe i-eco-safaris eSerengeti endaweni yeeholide zephakheji. Torremolinos. Ngokwenyani, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunxulunyaniswa ngokusondeleyo nengeniso: okukhona utyeba, kokukhona kunokwenzeka ukuba usonakalise iplanethi, nokuba zininzi iinkuni ezikhutshiweyo kunye nezitya eziphoswe ngesandla ekhitshini lakho.
Akuncedi ukuba abezopolitiko, amashishini kunye nabakhankaseli benguqu yemozulu bafune ukusikhusela kwinyani ekhohlakeleyo yokuba kufuneka kutshintshe kangakanani. Kwiveki ephelileyo i-Friends of the Earth yapapasha ingxelo eyayiyigunyazise kwiZiko leTyndall loPhando loTshintsho lweMozulu, elibeka imeko yokunciphisa i-90% yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ngo-2050 (7). Oku kwabangela ukumangaliswa kumajelo eendaba. Kodwa ezinye izibalo, zisebenzisa imithombo efanayo, zibonisa ukuba kwanale njongo yebhongo kumashumi amabini eminyaka emva kwexesha(8). Ibanzima kakhulu, kodwa ndicela nindinyamezele, kuba ikamva lethu lixhomekeke kula manani.
IZiko laseTyndall lithi ukuze kuthintelwe ukuba umhlaba ufudumale ngamaqondo angaphezu kwamabini ngaphezu komlinganiselo wangaphambi koshishino, i<em>carbon dioxide ekwiatmosfera kufuneka izinziswe ibe ziinxalenye ezingama-450 kwisigidi okanye ngaphantsi (ngoku zimi kuma-380). Kodwa oku, njengoko imithombo yayo ibonisa, akwanelanga ngokucacileyo(9).
Isizathu kukuba i-carbon dioxide (CO2) ayikuphela kwegesi ye-greenhouse. Ezinye - ezifana ne-methane, i-nitrous oxide kunye ne-hydrofluorocarbons - zongeza iimpembelelo zayo malunga ne-15%. Xa udibanisa i-CO2 kunye nezinye iigesi ze-greenhouse kunye, ufumana umfanekiso owaziwa ngokuba "yi-CO2 elinganayo". Kodwa iziko laseTyndall lisebenzisa โi-CO2โ kunye โne-CO2 elinganayoโ ngokutshintshanayo, nto leyo ekhokelela kwimishmash yenzululwazi ehlazisayo.
"Ukugxininiswa kweengxenye ze-450 kwisigidi ngasinye se-CO2 esilinganayo okanye esisezantsi", ithi, inika "ingqiqo-ukuya-phezulu amathuba okuba ungadluli kwi-2 degrees C" (10). Oku kuyinyaniso, kodwa ingxelo ayibizi umda weengxenye ze-450 ze "CO2 elinganayo". Ibiza umda weengxenye ze-450 ze-CO2, oku kuthetha ukuba ubuncinane iinxalenye ze-500 ze-CO2 ezilinganayo. Kweli nqanaba, kukho ithuba elisezantsi ukuya-kakhulu lokugcina iqondo lokushisa ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-2 degrees (11,12). Ngoko kutheni emhlabeni eli ziko lenzululwazi lihlonelwayo liye lawabhuqa amanani?
Unokufumana impendulo kwiphepha le-16 lengxelo. โNjengabo bonke ubudlelwane bomxhasi nomcebisi, iimeko zomda zamiselwa ukuze kwenziwe uhlalutyo. โฆ Abahlobo boMhlaba, ngentsebenziswano nemanyano yee-NGOs kunye nokwanda kwenkxaso yamaqela ahlukeneyo kumalungu ePalamente, bebephembelela ngamandla ukwaziswa 'kwebhili yokutshintsha kwemozulu' โฆ [Umthetho oyilwayo] usekwe ngokusisiseko kunxulumano lwe-2 ยฐC eneendawo ezingama-450 kwisigidi seCO2."
Ngamanye amazwi, Abahlobo boMhlaba sele sele beyibekile injongo ngaphambi kokuba ibuze abaphandi bayo ukuba bafumanise ukuba yintoni ekujoliswe kuyo. Ndiyakrokrela ukuba ikhethe inombolo engeyiyo kuba ikholelwa ukuba i-90% yokusika ngo-2030 ayinakwamkeleka kwezopolitiko.
Oku kufana nokwala kuka-Sir David King, isazinzulu esiyintloko, ukubiza ekujoliswe kuko okungaphantsi kwama-550 eenxalenye kwisigidi se-CO2 kwi-atmosfera, ngezizathu zokuba โayizukwenzeka ngokwezopolitikoโ(13). Umyalezo ubonakala ngathi inzululwazi inokuya esihogweni - siya kubaxelela abantu into esicinga ukuba banokuyithwala.
Ngoko sonke siyazikhohlisa kwaye siyakhohlisana malunga notshintsho olumele lwenzeke. Iiklasi eziphakathi zicinga ukuba ziluhlaza ngenxa yokuba zithenga iipajama ze-cotton ze-organic kunye neesepha ezenziwe ngezandla ezinamaqhekeza amagqabi kuzo - nangona zisatshisa i-conservatories yazo kwaye zigcina amakhaya abo eholide e-Croatia. Abantu ebekufanele ukuba bajongane nabo ngenyaniso enzima bayawuyeka umngeni. Kwaye abezopolitiko abasayi kuxhuma de abanye bethu benze njalo.
NgeCawa i-Liberal Democrats ibhengeze ukuba zenza utshintsho lwemozulu ibe yeyona nto iphambili kwezopolitiko, kwaye ngoLwesibini bavotele ukususa irhafu ebantwini ukuya kungcoliseko. Ukubona kuqala kubonakala kunesibindi, kodwa emva koko ufumanisa ukuba abakhange bayichukumise ingxaki. Ngelixa iirisithi zerhafu zizonke e-United Kingdom zifikelela kwi-350 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka (14), bajonge ukutshintsha nje i-8 yeebhiliyoni zeedola - okanye i-2.3%.
Ke umbuzo ngoku ojongene nawo wonke umntu - abezopolitiko, amaqela ephulo, izazinzulu, abafundi be-Guardian kunye ne-Economist kunye neLanga - ngulo: ingakanani inyaniso onokuyithatha? Ngaba ngokwenene ufuna ukuyeka isiphithiphithi semozulu, okanye ufuna ukuziva ngcono ngawe?
Incwadi kaGeorge Monbiot Ubushushu: indlela yokuyeka ukutshisa iplanethi ngoku ipapashwe nguPenguin. Uye wasungula iwebhusayithi entsha - i-turnuptheheat.org - ebhentsisa amalinge eenkampani zobuxoki malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
www.monbiot.com
Iingxelo:
1. UMartin Phillips, ngomhla we-14 kuSeptemba 2006. Ukukhukuliseka esihogweni. Ilanga.
2. Harry MacAdam, 13th Septemba 2006. Iintsuku ezisixhenxe kunye nohlaza. Ilanga.
3. Akukho mbhali, ngomhla we-16 kuFebruwari 2002. Ukuqhumisa umsi โ isicwangciso sikaGeorge Bush sokufudumala kwehlabathi. Ingcali yezoQoqosho.
4. Akukho mbhali, 1st May 2004. Amanqanaba omahluko - Uqoqosho lokutshintsha kwemozulu. Ingcali yezoQoqosho.
5. Akukho mbhali, nge-9 kaSeptemba 2006. Ubushushu buvuliwe. Ingcali yezoQoqosho.
6. IBhanki yeNtsebenziswano, kaJulayi 2006. Ukuphila Iphupha. Incwadana ithunyelwe kubathengi.
7. U-Alice Bows et al, ngoJulayi 2006. Ukuhlala kwibhajethi yekhabhoni. INgxelo yaBahlobo boMhlaba kunye neBhanki yeNtsebenziswano. Ipapashwe ngoSeptemba 2006. http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/living_carbon_budget.pdf
8. Ezi zichazwe kwiGeorge Monbiot, 2006. Ubushushu: indlela yokumisa ukutsha kweplanethi. IPenguin, eLondon.
9. Malte Meinshausen, 2006. Kuthetha ukuthini ukujoliswa kwe-2C kwirhasi yegreenhouse
ugxininiso? Ukunqanda uTshintsho lweMozulu oluyiNgozi โ Isahluko sama-28. http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/internat/pdf/avoid-dangercc.pdf
10. UAlice Bows et al, ibid, p14.
11. IBill Hare kunye neMalte Meinshausen, 2004. Kungakanani ukufudumala esizibophelele kubo kwaye kungakanani esinokuthintelwa? Ingxelo ye-PIK 93, Umfanekiso 7, iphepha 24. IZiko lasePotsdam loPhando lweMpembelelo yeMozulu. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/publications/pik_reports/reports/pr.93/pr93.pdf
12. UPaul Baer noTom Athanasiou, 2005. Ukunyaniseka malunga noTshintsho lweMozulu oluyiNgozi.
http://www.ecoequity.org/ceo/ceo_8_2.htm
13. David King, 21st September 2005. Intetho kwi-Decarbonising kwinkomfa yase-UK, iChurch House, eWestminster.
14. I-Ofisi yeNkcazo-manani kaZwelonke, ngokwe-comm ? inani le-FY 2005/6.