Kule nyanga sive iimbono ezimangalisayo ezivela kwabaphezulu bebhiyozela ukuwa kwexabiso ledola.
Umnxibelelanisi wezoqoqosho weNew York Times uDaniel Altman: 'Ukwehla kwedola kunokuqhubeka ngendlela enocwangco nangendlela entle. Uqoqosho lunokubona oko, phantsi kweemeko, kuya kuba yinto engcono kunazo zonke zehlabathi: i-dollar ephantsi inceda ukuxhasa ukuthunyelwa kwe-American ngaphandle, ngelixa imali yangaphandle iqhubeka ingena kweli lizwe.'
Iphephancwadi i<em>The Economist: ‘Uqoqosho lwehlabathi lunokungenelwa kakuhle ngokuhla ngokuthe ngcembe kumqolo oluhlaza. Kuya kunceda ukunciphisa ukungalingani kwe-akhawunti yangoku kwaye, ngokutshintshela imveliso kwicandelo elithengiswayo laseMelika, kuya kunciphisa uqoqosho lwase-United States njengoko ukuqhuma kweqamu lezindlu.'
IBhanki yeHlabathi: 'Kusenokwenzeka ukuba kuya kuhlala kuthambile? nangona kungathatha iminyaka eliqela ngaphaya kwexesha lethu eliphakathi (2006-08) phambi kokuba intsilelo ye-akhawunti yase-US ifikelele kumanqanaba azinzileyo'.
Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, kwingxelo ye-ZNet - 'Ixesha le-Capitalism yase-US?' – Ndavula ngokucebisa ukuba 'ithemba lombuso wezoqoqosho wase-US ukukhubeka, ukukhubeka, kwaye mhlawumbi nokuwohloka kwamkelekile ngokwenene.' Akukho sizathu sokulungelelanisa uxilongo, nangona iindlela zokulawula ingxaki zaseWashington zigcine ubukhosi bayo bube buwohloka ngokukhawuleza njengoko unqwenela.
Khumbula imiba emithathu esembindini yeenkxalabo zethu malunga neentshukumo ezisisiseko zongxowankulu behlabathi. Okokuqala, ingxaki 'yokunyuka ngokugqithisileyo' (utyalo-mali olugqithileyo ngokunxulumene nemfuno yemveliso) - ingqinwe ngeminyaka yoo-1960-90 ngokuhla kwenyuka kukukhula kwe-GDP yomntu ngamnye kunye nokuhla kweereyithi zengeniso yenkampani (inzala) - yasuswa kwaye yancitshiswa. , kodwa ngeendleko zoxinzelelo oluqatha lwezoqoqosho kwiinyanga nakwiminyaka ezayo.
Second, the temporary dampening of overaccumulation through increased credit and financial market activity – especially aimed at real estate until this year, but at other speculative markets as well – goes far beyond the ability of capitalist production to meet the paper values in the foreseeable future.
Okwesithathu, utshintsho lwezelizwe kwimveliso nakwimali luqhubela phambili ukuvelisa ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwezoqoqosho kunye nokungavisisani kwezopolitiko kwingingqi, igalelo kukungalingani kwexabiso lemali kunye neemarike kunye noxinzelelo olusuka kwiimarike zongxowankulu ukuba bangene kwiindawo ezingengongxowankulu kuluntu nakwindalo, bekhangela ingeniso ebuyiselweyo. .
Ndichithe iveki ephelileyo kwiintaba ezisemazantsi eMalawi, ndifundisa ikhosi ecaleni kwembongi uDennis Brutus, kwaye ndisebenza kwezi ntshukumo kunye neqela elibalaseleyo lamashumi amabini amatsha ntliziyo asebenza ngokhuseleko lokutya, i-HIV/AIDS, amanzi, uphuhliso lwedolophu kunye imizabalazo yendawo yokulwa norhwaphilizo.
Elinye lawona mazwe ahlwempuzekileyo kwihlabathi, iMalawi iphantsi kobhontsi boorhulumente baseNtshona abanikela ngemali – abahlawula kakhulu kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lukarhulumente kwaye bahlawule intsilelo enkulu yorhwebo – kunye neBretton Woods Institutions, ede yapha umphathiswa wezemali walapha ekhaya umvuzo wokongeza.
Kubantu abaqhelekileyo akukho luphuculo lucacileyo, sixelelwa, nangona kuncitshisiwe amanqanaba amatyala angaphandle, amaxabiso aphezulu kwezinye izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kunye namaxabiso asezantsi emveliso evela eAsia, kunye nethemba lokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweuranium emva kokuba indlu yemigodi yase-Australia, iPaladin, iqalile. iprojekthi abathi inokunyusa i-GDP nge-5%.
Xa i-NGO groundWork kunye ne-Centre for Civil Society inikezela ngeeMbasa zaseMazantsi e-Afrika 'iiMbasa zesidumbu' - umsitho wonyaka wokuqhula wamashishini amakhulu - eThekwini kwinyanga ephelileyo, uPaladin wathabatha ibhaso 'Khetha iPokotho yoLuntu', ngenxa yokutyunjwa kwe Amaqela aseMalawi abahlali bezoBulungisa, iZiko lamaLungelo oLuntu kunye noBuyiselo, iSiseko seeNkonzo zeNkxaso yoLuntu, iKaronga Development Trust kunye ne-Uraha Foundation Malawi.
Ngokutsho kwezincomo (www.groundwork.org.za): 'Kwimeko egqithisileyo yokubawa, uPaladin uphembelela urhulumente waseMalawi ukuba athabathe iholide yerhafu yeminyaka eli-16. Ngenkxaso yezopolitiko yelizwe, uPaladin akathandabuzi kwiitempile ezitshatyalalisiwe zabantu basekhaya. Sele beqalile ukwakhiwa komgodi nokuba benganikwa phepha-mvume.'
Kolu hlobo lokuphangwa kweLizwe leSithathu i-capital ethe yaguqukela kuko ngokunyukayo, uhlobo 'lokuqokelela ngokuhluthwa' (njengoko unjingalwazi weYunivesithi yeSixeko saseNew York uDavid Harvey ekubeka) okudlulela ngaphaya kobudlelwane bemarike obuqhelekileyo.
Incediswa yinkqubo yezemali eyandayo kunye nokudityaniswa kwehlabathi, ezo nkqubo zokufuduswa kwentlekele ziye zanyuka ngesantya kule minyaka ingamashumi amathathu idlulileyo. Iindlela kule minyaka mihlanu idlulileyo zibonisa impumelelo - kodwa kunye nemida - yolawulo lwentlekele, ngakumbi e-US, eYurophu naseJapan:
o an uptick in corporate profits, but accompanied by very sluggish corporate investments in new plant and equipment;
o a recovery in trade, foreign investment flows and stock market values after early 2000 downturns, but largely thanks to an overheating China and to merger and acquisition mania, not new productivity breakthroughs or markets;
o rising US and Japanese fiscal deficits, without which growth would have been anaemic;
o an unprecedented US trade deficit (especially due to increased Chinese imports);
o an upturn since 2002 in the prices of raw materials (especially energy and minerals/metals) but in a manner reminiscent of speculative bubbles;
o ‘real’ (after-inflation) interest rates below 1% since 2001, in spite of 17 small rate increases by the US Federal Reserve since 2004;
o a fast-rising household debt/asset ratio in the US;
o an 18% fall in the value of the dollar from its early 2002 high until now; and
o the ongoing role of emerging Asian economies, especially China, as the engines of world growth, accounting for half of the increase in global GDP since 2000.
One of the most unpredictable but formidable problems for the US is the real estate bubble, which peaked in 2005. By the third quarter of 2006, the adverse impact of housing on US growth was negative 1.1 percentage points, a huge swing from even the year before when it was 0.5 points, and from a still larger positive share during the early 2000s.
Zithini iingcali ngezoqoqosho zesiqhelo ngayo yonke le nto? Iingcaciso zabo kunye nezizathu zeyona ngxaki icacileyo, urhwebo lwase-US kunye nentsilelo yohlahlo lwabiwo-mali, kubilisa kwizinto ezine:
o the low US national savings rate, below 14% during the early 2000s;
o the positive implications of the ‘new economy’ for US investments, which have been stable at just lower than 20% of GDP during the 1990s-2000s, roughly equal to Europe and Latin America but lower than Japan’s 25% and other East Asian countries’ 33%;
o the argument that a ‘global savings glut’ – roughly 2% higher than 1990s levels – permits relatively low interest rates in the US in addition to capital inflows; and
o a ‘Sino-American codependency’ situation due to risk avoidance by Chinese and other Asian investors in the wake of the 1997-98 crisis.
Ukanti ngokukaBarry Eichengreen weBrookings Institute, 'ezi seti zine zezinto ezixhasa ukungalingani kwehlabathi kunye nentsilelo yase-US ayizukuhlala ngonaphakade. Kuya kufuneka kubekho uhlengahlengiso, umbuzo ungowokuba iya kufika kungekudala okanye iza kufika ngocwangco okanye ngocwangco.’
I-Eichengreen ayinayo into yokulungelelanisa ukuba iimarike zezimali zehlabathi kunye namaziko alawulwa yi-US - ngakumbi i-World Bank kunye ne-International Monetary Fund - zinyanzelise kwabanye, kwenye indawo.
Umzekelo, uMzantsi Afrika, iTurkey kunye neKholombiya zafumana ukuwohloka kwemali ngokuchasene ne-euro ye-25-33% kulo nyaka kuphela, kwaye kule minyaka ilishumi elinambini idlulileyo, amanye amazwe anengeniso ephakathi - iMexico, uninzi lweMpuma Yurophu, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, UMzantsi Korea, iRussia, iBrazil, iArgentina - uqoqosho lwazo luthe lwadodobala ngababoneleli bezimali behlabathi, ngokubanzi ukuze kuxhamle i-US neYurophu. (IJapan ibisoloko ikwimeko yokuma kule minyaka ilishumi elinesihlanu idlulileyo.)
Ngaphandle kwe-US, kubekho 'ixesha elide lokukhula okumileyo okanye okungalunganga', iyavuma iBhanki yeHlabathi kwincwadi yayo yamva nje, i-Global Economic Prospects 2007: 'Iminyaka engama-25 edlulileyo ibe nezithintelo ezininzi ezithwaxa ukukhula kumazwe asakhasayo? [kunye] nezizathu ezithile zala maxesha okukhula koxinzelelo olususela kwingxaki yamatyala eLatin America ngeminyaka yoo-1980, kuMbindi Mpuma nakuMntla Afrika (kwaye, ukusa kwinqanaba elingaphantsi, amandla eAfrika), kunye nokuvela kweYurophu noMbindi weAsia ukusuka kwinguquko yayo ukuya. uqoqosho olusekwe kwimarike.'
Kodwa mva nje, ibango leBhanki, inkqubela phambili irekhodwa:
o more sustainable debt levels (at least for developing countries on average),
o more diversified economies with less reliance on volatile commodities,
o a much greater role for services (which tend to be less volatile),
o much improved production management with lower inventories (which tended to be a major factor in past business cycles), and
o better macroeconomic management, particularly monetary policy.
Amabango anjalo-athandabuzekayo kwiimeko ezininzi, kwaye engazi nto ngokuhla-enze amadoda afana no-Altman kunye nabahleli be-Economist ukuba babe neentloni kakhulu. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, i-imperial elites ebona kude kakhulu banenkxalabo malunga nokutshintsha kwamandla enkqubo emva kohlengahlengiso oluqhubekayo lwezemali kunye norhwebo.
Ngokutsho kukaMenzie Chinn, kwiphephandaba elaligunyaziswe kunyaka ophelileyo kwiBhunga lezoBudlelwane baNgaphandle, ‘Isilumkiso ngokuphathelele indlela yangoku yaseMerika sinikelwa kukulahlekelwa kweBritani kulawulo lomkhosi nezobupolitika ngenkulungwane yamashumi amabini; olo phuhliso lulandele utshintsho ukusuka kumbolekisi ukuya kwisimo somntu onamatyala. Ngokufanayo, ukuhla kwexesha elide kwixabiso ledola kunye nokwanda kwamatyala kuya kuphelisa ubukhosi baseMelika kwiinkalo zezopolitiko nezokhuseleko.'
UChinn uqhube wathi: 'Ezi zinto zihamba phambili zibeka esichengeni indima yedola njengemali yehlabathi eququzelela urhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye nezezimali, into efunyenwe yiUnited States ngokungenakulinganiswa ukutyhubela iminyaka. Idola ebuthathaka ikwanciphisa amandla aseMelika kumaziko emali aphesheya afana neBhanki yehlabathi kunye ne-IMF. Okokugqibela, ukuncipha kwemali yase-US kuthetha ukuba ixabiso ledola ngalinye lomkhosi kunye noncedo lophuhliso lunempembelelo encinci kanye ngexesha apho isizwe sijongene nemicelimngeni emikhulu. Ezo zoyikiso sizibetha ngoyaba ngengozi yethu.'
Kwabo bachasene ne-impiriyalizim, ezo zoyikiso zingenziwa kuphela ukuba ukuchasana kwezizwe ngezizwe kwi-neoliberalism egxile e-US kuqina ngokukhawuleza nangokuqinisekileyo, ngokuhambelana noloyiso oluzayo lwePentagon e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan, ulwandiso olugqithisileyo lwentshukumo ye-neoconservative yase-US, ilahleko ye-Latin American rightwing. amandla esizwe, uMbutho wezoRhwebo weHlabathi ujike ungabinamsebenzi, kunye nobunzima obunzulu bezemali be-IMF bushiyeke bungomnye wabaququzeleli abaphambili boqoqosho lwehlabathi (emva kokuhlawulwa kwangoko kweemali-mboleko ngababolekisi abakhulu abaliqela).
Nangona kunjalo, iWorld Bank's Global Economic Prospects ichonga izinto ezintathu eziya kuhla ukudityaniswa kwehlabathi – 'ukukhula kokungalingani, uxinzelelo kwiimarike zabasebenzi kunye nezoyikiso kwizivumelwano zehlabathi' – ezingaphelelanga nje 'ekubonakala kumanyano lwamazwe ngamazwe' kodwa 'okunokwenzeka ibe bukhali ngakumbi. Ukuba la mandla akathintelwa, anokucothisa okanye ade aphelise ukudityaniswa kwehlabathi.'
I-Bhanki iqaphela ukuba izoyikiso 'zomonakalo wendalo esingqongileyo, udushe lwentlalo, okanye ukunyuka okutsha kweemvakalelo zokhuselo zinokuba yingozi', ngokuyinxenye ngenxa yokuba 'ukubuyela kwizakhono zabasebenzi kuya kuqhubeka kunyuka ngokukhawuleza kunoko kubasebenzi abangaqeqeshelwanga, ukwandisa imivuzo yendalo yanamhlanje. utyekelo olubonakalayo kumazwe amaninzi, ukuba akunjalo.
Ukuba kunjalo, u-2007 ngunyaka obalulekileyo wokoyikisa indibaniselwano yee-neoliberals kunye ne-neoconservatives kumaziko ehlabathi kunye noninzi lwamazwe e-G8 kazwelonke. Uqhanqalazo olugqwesileyo lwabantu base-Australia kwiqela le-G20 labaphathiswa bezemali kwinyanga ephelileyo lungaphinda luphindeke kwisithuba esingangonyaka eKapa, xa uTrevor Manuel waseMzantsi Afrika elungiselela eli qela.
Okwangoku, abaphembeleli baseYurophu baya kugungqisa i-G8 eJamani ngoJulayi. I-IMF kunye neBhanki yehlabathi babuya kwi-2006 yabo yaseSingapore ekhuselekileyo ukuya eWashington kwiintlanganiso zonyaka ngoSeptemba kwaye ngokungathandabuzekiyo yavuselela uqhanqalazo.
Imiboniso echasene nemfazwe kuMbindi Mpuma kunye neZionism iya kuqina. Kuya kubakho imilo eqhubekayo yamalungelo abantu abavela kwamanye amazwe kunye nolutsha, imisebenzi kunye nobulungisa bezoqoqosho, ukufikelela kumayeza kunye nezinye iinkonzo zoluntu ezifana nemfundo, amanzi kunye namandla. Amadabi achasene nobuhlanga nocalucalulo ngokwesini aya kuqhubeka. Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuzo zonke izikrini zerada zendalo esingqongileyo, kunye nomonde okunciphayo wezicwangciso eziliqili zomgunyathi ezifana norhwebo lwekhabhoni kunye nokunciphisa.
Njengoko uBrutus waxelela abantu baseMalawi, 'I-World Social Forum eNairobi kule nyanga izayo isinika ithuba lokuhlanganisa umsebenzi onzima wobulungisa, kwaye njengoko sithatha ithuba lokusebenzisana nezizwe ngezizwe ukoyisa umanyano lwamazwe ngamazwe, kufuneka sihlaziye intlangano yethu ekhaya, sidibanise. yonke le miba kangangoko sinako.'