Emthunzini weenguqu zaseTunisia kunye neYiputa, ukuhlanganiswa kwentlalo kunye nophuhliso lwezopolitiko eJordani luye lwabangela ukuba kugxininiswe kakhulu kuBukumkani. Ngezantsi yimibuzo emihlanu eqhelekileyo endiyifumene kubahlobo kunye neentatheli kunye neempendulo zam.
(1) Ngaba siza kubona eJordan uhlobo lwezidubedube esilubonayo eTunisia okanye eYiputa?
Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, kwenzeka ntoni kwi Jordan ayithelekisi nokwenzeka kwezinye iindawo zelizwe lama-Arabhu ingekuko ngokwesidanga (oko kukuthi, inani labantu phandle ezitalatweni) okanye ngokwendalo (oko kukuthi, iindidi zeemfuno ezenziwayo). IJordani yabelana ngezinto ezininzi zesakhiwo kunye nezenzo zolawulo ezikhuthaze ukuhlanganisa abantu abaninzi eJiphethe naseTunisia. Ezi ikakhulu ziinkqubo zolawulo ezingoozwilakhe ezibonelela kancinci kwindlela yokuphendula kunye nenkululeko yoluntu kunye nesicwangciso-qhinga sophuhliso loqoqosho lweneoliberal eye yakhulula umndilili wokujongana nokujongana neemfuno zakhe ezisisiseko. Nangona kunjalo, ngelixa imiboniso in Egypt kwaye Thunishiya zigxile kutshintsho lolawulo, uqhanqalazoJordan kwezi veki zine zidlulileyo kubizwe iinguqu kurhulumente (ochongwe ngurhulumente) kwakunye nohlaziyo olunzulu (ngokuchaseneyo nezokuthambisa) oluza kujongana neengxaki zopolitiko nezoqoqosho ezijongene noluntu lwaseJordani. Ngaba kunokwenzeka ukuba ukuhlanganisana eJordani kunokukhula, ngokumalunga nobukhulu kunye neemfuno, kwinto eyenzekileyo eTunisia naseYiputa? Ngokuqinisekileyo inokwenzeka kodwa ayinakwenzeka ukuba ithintele ezinye izinto ezinokuvela. Nangona kunjalo, kufanele kuqatshelwe ukuba izilogeni zikawonke-wonke ezijikeleze uqhanqalazo kunye namabango athile aphakanyiswe ngeeleta ezahlukeneyo zoluntu ziyatshintsha ukusuka kwikhwelo lokuwa kukarhulumente ukuya kuhlaziyo oluthile lwezopolitiko noqoqosho. Kwakhona, ezi mfuno zohlaziyo akukho ndawo zisondela kwiimfuno zokutshintsha ulawulo.
(2) Kutheni le nto iJordan ingafumani ntshukumo efanayo ngokumalunga nobukhulu kunye neemfuno?
Inqanaba le-polarization phakathi kolawulo kunye nabemi ngokubanzi eJordani alikafiki kumdlalo we-zero-sum owafikelela e-Egypt naseTunisia. Oku kusisiphumo sezinto ezininzi ezintsonkothileyo zembali. Uvavanyo lokuqala lwezi zinto lunokuthathela ingqalelo oku kulandelayo:
Okokuqala, ubume bokuba semthethweni koBukhosi eJordan bahlukile kunolawulo โlweriphablikiโ lwaseYiputa naseTunisia. Iyafana ne-Morocco's Alaouite dynasty (bona Intloko kaGretchen eMorocco), ubukhosi bukaHashemite bubanga ukuvela ngoMprofeti uMohammad kunye nendima ehamba phambili "kwi-Arab Revolt" ngokumelene noBukhosi base-Ottoman. Ngapha koko, ilizwe laseJordanian lakhiwa (zombini izinto eziphathekayo kunye ne-discursively) malunga nolongamo lweHashemite. Amafa anjalo, nangona kunjalo umntu unokuwavavanya, anike amaHashemites zombini iziqinisekiso zobuSilamsi kunye ne-Arabhu yobuzwe ezenza nzima iingxoxo malunga nokuba semthethweni kukaKumkani Abdullah II kunye noBukhosi baseHashemite.
Okwesibini, kubekho ukwahlukana okusebenzayo kwezaci phakathi koBukhosi (oko kukuthi, ulawulo) kunye norhulumente (okt, iKhabhinethi echongwe ngobukhosi). Ngamanye amazwi, intetho yezopolitiko eJordani imele iipolitiki zangoku (nokuba ngurhulumente, inkcaso esemthethweni, okanye nawaphi na amaziko karhulumente) eBukumkanini njengokwahlukileyo kwindima yoBukhosi. Oku ngokuyinxenye kungumsebenzi wokuba semthethweni koBukhosi kuxoxwe ngasentla. Ikwangumsebenzi wokuba umthetho nobundlobongela zinyanzelise olu kwahlukana. Okubaluleke ngokufanayo kukuba, uBukhosi buzimise ngeendlela ezininzi njengenkokeli yohlaziyo eBukumkanini, bubanga ukuceba ikhondo lohlaziyo nokulawula iingozi zabo. Ngaphandle kohlobo oluthile lwenguqu eluntwini, oku kwahlulwa kunye nobundlobongela obusemthethweni obuxhasa oko kube nefuthe lokwenyani kubume bamabango ezopolitiko aqhubela phambili.
Okwesithathu, ukuguquguquka kohlaziyo lwezopolitiko olulawulwa ngurhulumente osezantsi lunike iindawo ezininzi ezilawulwayo zonxunguphalo lukawonke-wonke (umzekelo, imiboniso eququzelelweyo, iiforam ezintsha zeendaba, unyulo lwasepalamente) ngelixa kugcinwa ukugxininiswa kwamagunya kwipolitiki nakuqoqosho. Esi sicwangciso ngamanye amaxesha siye sasabela kwiimfuno zoluntu (umz., i ukugxothwa kweKhabhinethi kaSamir al-Rifa'i) ngelixa kwabanye sele ebakhuphile ngaphambili (umzekelo, ukubiza uzwelonke imvumelwano ngomthetho omtsha wonyulo). Ke, ngokungafaniyo neTunisia neJiphutha, "umdlalo wohlaziyo" usadlala ngokwawo eJordani kunye nomboniso omncinci weJadaliyya Co-Editor. Hesham Sallam ichazwa โnjengemvukelo echasene nezopolitiko zaseYiphutha, eziquka iqela elilawulayo kunye namaqela aphikisayo asesikweni angasebenziyo nathe yazingqonga ngawo amashumi eminyaka.โ (Jonga iingxelo zeJordanian UmSilamsi, umntu wasekhohlo, yaye ophakathi amaqela ngezikhundla zawo kuhlaziyo eBukumkanini.)
Okwesine, kukho ilifa lezentlalo nezopolitiko kubudlelwane phakathi kwamaqela eJordan. Kangangamashumi eminyaka, uBukhosi budlale indima yomlamli phakathi kwezizwe ezikhuphisanayo eJordan. Oku kuye kwabangela intaphane yezizwe ezingaphaya kweJordan ukuba zigcine ukunyaniseka kwazo kuKumkani namandla akhe โokugcina uxoloโ phakathi kwezizwe namaqela akhuphisanayo apho. Ngaphaya koko, icebo lembali yoBukhosi bokwakha isiseko sentlalo ngokunika amalungelo abantu baseJordani abasuka kwiBhanki eseMpuma ngaphezu kwabo banemvelaphi yasePalestine iye yaluqinisa ulawulo. Ngenxa yokuba abantu baseJordani bemvelaphi yasePalestina bamele uninzi lwabemi, iiBhanki zaseMpuma ziya kuphulukana nawo nawaphi na amalungelo abanawo ngoku kwenye inkqubo yolawulo. Ekugqibeleni, ngembali yokucinezela kunye nokudibanisa amanani / iintshukumo zenkcaso zelizwe kunye nezokushiya, i-Palestinian-origin Muslim Brotherhood (MB) kunye nephiko layo lezopolitiko - i-Islamic Action Front (IAF) - iye yavela njengeyona nto ihamba phambili. iqela eliphikisayo kwiqonga lezopolitiko laseJordani. Ngoko ke, enye indlela ekhoyo yolawulo (oko kukuthi, urhulumente olawulwa yi-IAF) ngoku ibangela iingxaki ezibalulekileyo kumaqela alahlekelwa kakhulu kulwabiwo ngokutsha lwamagunya. (singasathethi ke ngamacandelo ahlukeneyo abantu baseJordani abadiniweyo yi-IAF). Oku mhlawumbi kubonakala kakhulu kwi iingxelo zamva nje yimbumba yamaqela agxininisekileyo ukuba โkuxa kuthe kwavela amaqela amabini anamandla angenela unyuloโ apho kuya kuba yinto efanelekileyo ukuwisa uhlobo lohlaziyo oluya kuvumela ukuba iNkulumbuso (PM) kunye neKhabhinethi banyulwe yiPalamente โ ngokuchaseneyo. kwisenzo esikhoyo se-PM yonyulwe ngokwasebukhosini iKhabhinethi yayo ikhethwe ngaphandle kwePalamente. La malungelo adityanisiweyo adale imiqobo eyoyikekayo ekuyilweni kohlanganiso lwenkitha olunesiseko esibanzi oluyimfuneko mhlawumbi kwinguqu okanye uhlaziyo lokwenene. Enyanisweni, baye badala iiyantlukwano zento u-Eva Bellin (kwimeko eyahlukileyo kodwa ehlobeneyo) ayibiza ngokuthi "idemokhrasi engalindelekanga" (oko kukuthi, ukuxhasa idemokhrasi kuphela kunikwe iziqinisekiso ezithile zokuba yintoni enokuthandwa lukusasazwa kwamandla kwidemokhrasi).
Okokugqibela, urhulumente unomyalelo odityanisiweyo wawo onke amasebe omkhosi, iinkonzo zobuntlola kunye neearhente zamapolisa. Ulawulo lwaseJordani luziqhelanise ngokufanelekileyo noluhlu lwengingqi lobhukuqo-mbuso lwemikhosi olwathi lwenzeka phakathi kweminyaka yoo-1940 noo-1960 ukuhlanganisa ulawulo lwayo kunye โnobungqina bobhukuqo-mbusoโ ngokwalo. Njengoko Hesham Sallamkwaye UPawulos Amar baxoxile, iintanda phakathi kwamaziko ahlukeneyo anyanzeliswayo karhulumente - kunye naleyo phakathi komkhosi kunye nolawulo - yintshukumo engundoqo eyakha izibalo zobuchule zawo omabini amaqela aphikisayo asesikweni kunye nalawo matsha ntliziyo anomdla kwipolitiki enengxabano. Akukho mathandabuzo amancinci okuba onke amaziko amanyeneyo elizwe laseJordanian aya kuhlanganisana ngokufanelekileyo ukukhusela uBukhosi.
(3) Kuthekani โngempembelelo yedominoโ abahlalutyi abaninzi namaziko eendaba athetha ngawo?
Iziganeko zamva nje kummandla (ngokukodwa eTunisia naseYiputa, kodwa naseAlgeria, eJordan, naseYemen) zinyanzelise ukutshintshwa kwentetho kawonkewonke yezopolitiko kunye nezicwangciso zolawulo kunye namaqela aphikisayo ngokufanayo kuwo onke amazwe ase-Arab. Nokuba okwenzekileyo eTunisia naseYiputa (zombini iinkqubo eziqhubekayo) kuya kwenzeka nakwamanye amazwe kuxhomekeke kwilifa lembali elikhethekileyo kwilizwe ngalinye, kunye neemeko zombini zesakhiwo kunye neemeko ezingalindelekanga. Kufuneka silugxeke uluvo lwesiphumo sedomino esixhomekeke kumendo. Kunokuba nemveliso ngakumbi ukuqwalasela โumphumo wokubonisa.โ Uphuhliso lwaseTunisia naseYiputa lwenza ukuba kube nokwenzeka ukucinga ezinye iindlela zolawulo olukhoyo lwama-Arabhu ngeendlela eziya phambili ngakumbi kunokuba kwakunjalo ngaphambili. Njengoko UMaya Mikdashi, UNoura Erekat kunye noSherene Seikaly olu phuhliso luvule iimbono zexesha elizayo ekudala zathinjwa ngaba rhulumente. Oku kwenzeke ngeendlela ezimbini. Kwelinye icala, siye sabona ukuwa kwento kaBassam Haddad ichazwe โnjengexesha โelingunaphakadeโ aba rhulumente/iinkokeli zixakeke zizozela okanye zingenasazela sabantu โbazoโโphezu kwayo nje, okanye mhlawumbi ngenxa yenkcaso yabo ekudala beyichasa.โ Kwelinye icala, iikomiti zasekuhlaleni, umanyano lwamaKristu namaSilamsi, kunye nemigudu eyahlukeneyo yokwakha umfelandawonye baye bacela umngeni ukhetho lobuxoki phakathi kolawulo-melo kunye nesiphithiphithi (ukhetho oluhlala luthetha ngoorhulumente bama-Arabhu kunye nabaxhasi babo). Le nto intsha inokubakho inokukhokelela kulawulo oluseleyo, inkcaso yabo esesikweni, kunye naloo macandelo oluntu angakhethwanga nokuba atshintshe izibalo zawo zobuchule. Kwelinye icala, oko kunokutolika kwiinzuzo ezibambekayo kumacandelo athile ezopolitiko noqoqosho. Kwelinye icala, kunokubangela ukuba oorhulumente abakhoyo bafumane iindlela ezintsha โzokuphucula ubugunyathiโ (oko kukuthi, umdlalo wohlaziyo). Esinye sezi ziphumo sixhomekeke ekuzihloleni kolawulo lukarhulumente nakwizinga likawonke-wonke lohlengahlengiso kunye nobume bohlanganiso. Lilonke, iziganeko zakutsha nje zibangele inguqu kuko kokubini okulindelwe ngabantu abahlukeneyo kunye nokubalwa korhulumente ohlukeneyo. Ingaba olu tshintsho luya kuguqulelwa kuyo nayiphi na into ehlelekileyo ngokwemigaqo yolawulo kunye neemodeli zophuhliso loqoqosho kusaza kubonakala.
(4) Ngaba ukunqongophala kwamanani amakhulu kunye neemfuno ezingqongqo ngakumbi ezifana nezo zaseTunisia naseYiphutha kuthetha ukuba abemi baseJordan banelisekile yinkqubo ekhoyo yezobupolitika?
Kubalulekile ukucazulula imiba apha. Okokuqala, unombuzo wendlela abantu abavakalelwa ngayo ngoKumkani. Okwesibini, unomba weemfuno zenkqubo yezopolitiko emele ngokwenene, enoxanduva, kunye nesekwe kumalungelo. Ekugqibeleni, unomcimbi wento abantu abazimisele ukuyenza ukudala inkqubo enjalo.
Obunye ubunzima ekujongeni imbono yoluntu ngeKumkani kukuba iintlobo ngeentlobo zentetho yezopolitiko, ingakumbi ezo ziphathelele uBukhosi, zisaqhubeka ukuba zizenzo zolwaphulo-mthetho. Ngaloo ndlela, akunakwenzeka ngokoqobo ukuthetha ngokukhululekileyo ngoKumkani. Iimvakalelo malunga noKumkani kunye noBukhosi mhlawumbi zintsonkothe โโngakumbi kune-dichotomy phakathi kokunyaniseka okungagungqiyo kunye nokubiza ukunikezelwa kwayo kokupheliswa. Nangona kunjalo, akunakwenzeka ukuba baqonde oku kuntsonkotha ukungabikho iimeko eziyimfuneko ukukhusela amalungelo abantu ukuba baveze ngokukhululekileyo ukuma kwabo kulo mbandela.
Nangona kunjalo, kukho intaphane yamabango athile ohlaziyo athe achazwa kwiiforam ezahlukeneyo, amajelo eendaba, kunye neengxelo ezibandakanya ezo zomthetho wonyulo olumele ummeli, ipalamente exhotyisiweyo, inkululeko yokwenyani yokuthetha, umbutho, kunye neendibano, kunye nohlengahlengiso kumthetho wonyulo. iikhowudi ezahlukeneyo zomthetho kunye neenkqubo, ngakumbi ezo zinxulunyaniswa "nolwaphulo-mthetho oluchasene norhulumente." Ingcamango yokuba abantu abanamdla kwinkululeko yoluntu, ukumelwa ngokufanelekileyo, kunye nokuphendula kukarhulumente akukho ngqiqweni. Kusenokubakho abathile abaphezulu kwezopolitiko, ngaphakathi kurhulumente, urhulumente, okanye inkcaso esesikweni eyenze ukhetho lobuchule malunga nohlaziyo oluza kwenzeka. Kodwa loo nto yahlukile kunokuthi uninzi lwabemi alunqweneli kwaye alunqweneli iinguqu zenyani zezopolitiko ezikhusela inkululeko yabo yoluntu, lubonelele ngomelo olwaneleyo, kwaye lunike iindlela zokubamba amagosa aphendule.
Umahluko phakathi kwabaqhankqalazi eTahrir Square kunye ne-avareji yaseJordani ayikho kwiminqweno yabo yotshintsho olunentsingiselo yokwenyani. Kumafa aphilisa uluntu ngalunye (ezinye zazo zikhankanywe kumbuzo wesi-3), izibalo ezicwangcisiweyo ngaphakathi kwezi meko, kunye neemeko ezingalindelekanga (njengokubulala uKhalid Said eYiputa okanye ukuzibulala kuka-Mohamed Bouazzi eTunisia) ukufezekisa iimfuno zoluntu. Inyaniso yokuba abantu baseJordani abakhethi uguquko, bebiza ngokuphandle ukupheliswa koBukhosi, okanye baphume ngamanani amakhulu kakhulu ayifani nokungafuni utshintsho oluyinyani nolunentsingiselo. Endaweni yoko, yimbonakaliso yenyaniso yokuba izinto ezininzi zinika ulwazi malunga nezenzo ezenziwa ngabantu kwiphulo labo lenkululeko, kubandakanywa ukwahlukana kwezikhundla phakathi kweepali ezichaseneyo zokuthobela uBukhosi kunye nokucela ukupheliswa kwabo.
(5) Iimvumelwano ezenziwe kwiiveki ezimbalwa zokugqibela zibonisa ngakumbi imeko ekhoyo. Luya kujongeka njani utshintsho lokwenyani?
Kwiiveki ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, ulawulo lwaseJordan luye yandisa inkxaso-mali yeempahla ezisisiseko, inyuse imivuzo/umhlalaphantsi abasebenzi bangoku/abadla umhlala-phantsi basekuhlaleni nabasemkhosini, ixinekile iNkulumbuso kunye neKhabhinethi yakhe, otyunjweyo iNkulumbuso entsha, kunye wathembisa ukuzingisa kwinkqubo โeqhubekayoโ kunye nohlaziyo lwezopolitiko noqoqosho. Akukho nalinye kula manyathelo libonelela ngayo nantoni na ngokwahlukileyo ngokwemigaqo yenkululeko yoluntu, ukumelwa, okanye uxanduva lokuphendula. Oku kuthetha nto malunga isicwangciso sophuhliso loqoqosho esiqhutywa e-Jordan, endiya kujongana nayo kwinqaku elizayo elizinikezelwe ngokukodwa kwisihloko.
Ubuncinci besiseko malunga nohlaziyo lwenyani lwezopolitiko, ngokweemfuno ezenziwe ngamaqela ahlukeneyo eJordani, ziya kubandakanya:
Umthetho woNyulo omelweyo: Zintathu iingxaki ezinkulu kuMthetho woNyulo okhoyo olawula unyulo lweNdlu eNgaphantsi yePalamente. Okokuqala, izithili zonyulo okwangoku azilingani kwaye zabela izihlalo ezininzi kwiindawo ezithile ezixhasa ulawulo lwemveli kunesiseko esiqhelekileyo sokwabiwa kwezihlalo. Oku kuhlawulela ngokufanelekileyo ukunqongophala kwedemografi kurhulumente (okt, isiseko sakhe sentlalo sonyulo sincinci kakhulu kunabo bavoti abanokuthi bavote ngokuxhasa abagqatswa abaphikisayo). Okwesibini, ngelixa izihlalo zidla ngokunikwa ngokwesiseko sabemi abahlala kwisithili kunye nezithilana zaso, abavoti bakhululekile ukubhalisa nakwesiphi na isithili abasikhethayo nakwesiphi na isithilana esilapho. Oku kuvumela iimbumba zezopolitiko nezentlalo ezikhuselwe ngurhulumente (nokuba zizizwe okanye amaqela aphikisayo anyulwe ngokudibeneyo) ukuba ahlanganise abavoti kuzo zonke izithili nezithilana ukuze kukhethwe abagqatswa abavumelana norhulumente. Okokugqibela, iNkqubo yeVoti eNye eNgadluliswayo (ekuthi iJordan lelinye lamazwe amathathu kuphela ekufuneka iphunyezwe) ithetha ukuba abavoti bafake ivoti enye bexhasa isihlalo esinye ngaphandle kokuvota kwisithilana nakwisithili esinikwe izihlalo ezininzi. Oku akubakhuthazi abantu ukuba bavotele amaqela okanye imigaqo-nkqubo xa kujongwa ukuba basebenzisa ivoti yabo ekuphela kwayo kunxibelelwano lobuqu lohlobo oluthile (oko kukuthi, isalamane okanye ilungu lesizwe sabo). Naluphi na utshintsho olunokuba luncedo kumelo lwePalamente luya kufuna ukuba le miba mithathu yoMthetho woNyulo ihlonyelwe ngokuhambelana nesithili esilinganayo nesingenamkhethe, ukuvota kwizithili nakwiziphalukana kubalelwe ngeenjongo zokwabelwa izihlalo, kunye nebloko. okanye inkqubo yokuvota yoluhlu lweqela.
IPalamente eXhotyisiweyo: Okwangoku, igunya lolawulo ligcwele kwisakhiwo sePalamente. Umthetho uqale waziswe ngeNkulumbuso echongwe ngokwasebukhosini (okhetha iKhabhinethi yakhe), kufuneka kwakhona uvunywe yiNdlu ePhezulu echongwe ngurhulumente, kwaye uxhomekeke ekuvunyweni ngokupheleleyo okanye ukukhatywa yiKumkani. Ngelixa amaqela aphikisayo ambalwa abe nobuganga bokubiza esidlangalaleni ukuba kunyulwe iNdlu ePhakamileyo okanye kususwe igunya likaKumkani lokugatya umthetho, inani elikhulayo lamaqela libiza ilungelo leqela elinenani elikhulu lezihlalo kwiNdlu esezantsi ukukhetha. iNkulumbuso nokuba unyulo lweKhabhinethi luthatyathwe kwiNdlu ePhantsi. Olo tshintsho, ukongeza kwezo zomthetho wonyulo, luya kuqalisa inkqubo yokuguqula indima yePalamente isuke kuleyo yokuqinisekisa imithetho ibe ngomnye wemigaqo-nkqubo yowiso-mthetho.
Iinkululeko zoLuntu eziBhankisiweyo: Umthetho waseJordanian uyaqhubeka yenza ulwaphulo-mthetho intetho yezopolitiko oko kubaluleke kakhulu kwimo ekhoyo. Oku kuquka โukuhlambalazaโ amalungu entsapho yasebukhosini, intloko yelizwe langaphandle, okanye amagosa karhulumente, โnokungcolisaโ ipalamente okanye amalungu ayo, amaziko asemthethweni, iinkundla, abalawuli bakarhulumente nomkhosi. Oku akuthethi nto ngokubhala okanye intetho โebangela ungquzulwanoโ phakathi โkwamalungu ahlukeneyo esizwe.โ Le mithetho ixhomekeke ekutolikweni kwabatshutshisi kunye nabagwebi, inciphisa ngokufanelekileyo intetho yezopolitiko. Ngapha koko, umthetho waseJordani ilawula kakhulu imibutho yoluntu (zombini ii-NGOs kunye namaqela ezopolitiko), kubandakanywa nokwala ukuvumela ukufakwa kwazo ngaphandle kwesizathu, kunye nokufuna ukwamkelwa kwamagosa karhulumente kwiintlanganiso. Naliphi na inyathelo elibi elisingise kwinkululeko yokuthetha nokuzibandakanya liya kulungisa ezi ndlela zolawulo ezingenanto yakwenza nokugcina ucwangco loluntu nayo yonke into enokwenza nokuthintela ukuphikiswa.
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