Ixinene kwiingxaki zoqoqosho kunye nangaphakathi, iPakistan ilungele ukwenziwa ngokwesiqhelo kunye norhwebo kunye neIndiya-kodwa urhulumente wamaHindu kaNarendra Modi wobuzwe uyasilela ukulithatha eli thuba.
Xa uNarendra Modi ebuyela kulawulo isihlandlo sesibini eIndiya ngokuphumelela okukhulu ngo-2019, urhulumente wakhe wenza ngokukhawuleza. Kwiinyanga nje emva konyulo, urhulumente waseModi lichithiwe inqaku lama-370 yoMgaqo-siseko waseIndiya. Ngokwenza oko, yahlutha iwonga elikhethekileyo lomgaqo-siseko elinikwe iJammu kunye neKashmir, ilizwe laseIndiya kuphela elinamaSilamsi amaninzi, kwaye yehlisa iwonga lalo ukusuka kurhulumente nendibano yalo yonyulo ukuya kumhlaba womanyano olawulwa ngurhulumente omkhulu eDelhi. Le ntshukumo iphazamise imeko eyothusayo ebekade i-Indiya kunye nePakistan bezibambelele kuyo eKashmir amashumi eminyaka: I-Indiya ifuna ukuba iPakistan irhoxe emantla nasentshona yeKashmir, ephantsi kolawulo lwePakistan, kwaye iPakistan ifuna ukuba kuvotelwe ukuba ngubani olawulayo. ummandla wonke, kunye namaqela omabini abambelele ngokuthe nkqi kumgca woLawulo. Icatshukiswe sisenzo sikarhulumente weModi, iPakistan yaphindezela ngokurhoxisa amakhonkco orhwebo neIndiya.
Kude kube mva nje, isikhundla sePakistan sis-ร -vis India sigxininise isisombululo kumcimbi weKashmir njengenyathelo langaphambili lokuhamba kuyo nayiphi na eminye imicimbi. Ngoku, iPakistan ikwingxaki enkulu yezoqoqosho, akukho themba lokuthomalaliswa kwelizwe laseIndiya, kunye nesihlandlo sesithathu njengenkulumbuso yaseModi emva konyulo oluzayo lwaseIndiya, iPakistan inokunyanzelwa ukuba ifune ukuqalisa kwakhona ubudlelwane borhwebo ngelixa ibeka iKashmir. umva.
Ukusukela oko uModi waba yinkulumbuso yaseIndiya ngo-2014, bekusoloko kukho ulindelo ePakistan-lonyuswa ngexesha lonyulo ngalinye laseIndiya-ukuba urhulumente weModi ahlanganise i-rhetoric echasene nePakistan ukuze iqinise isiseko sayo. Ngo-Epreli ka-2019, kwindibano yephulo eRajasthan ngaphambi konyulo jikelele lokugqibela, uModi wabhengeza ukulungela kwakhe ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya zaseIndiya ngokuchasene nePakistan. "Ngaba siyigcinile ibhombu yethu yenyukliya kuDiwali?" wabuza eso sihlwele. IPakistan yakhawuleza yawagxeka la mazwi "njengelishwa kakhulu kwaye ayinaxanduva" kwaye isithethi seofisi yezangaphandle sibize ukusetyenziswa kukaModi "kwentetho yempumelelo yethutyana yezopolitiko nezonyulo, ngokungahoywa ngokupheleleyo kweziphumo zayo kuzinzo lobuchule eMzantsi Asia," ngokufanelekileyo. โIyazisola yaye ichasene nemigaqo yokuziphatha ngenyukliya.โ
UModi wasebenzisa i-hyperbole efanayo ngelixa wayethetha malunga nomsebenzi wokuwela umda we-commando ngo-2016 kunye nohlaselo lomoya kwindawo yasePakistan ekuqaleni kuka-2019 apho iNew Delhi yabanga ukuba iyenze ukuziphindezela ngohlaselo lomkhosi waseIndiya eJammu naseKashmir. Ingxoxo ejikeleze olu tyando, athe uModi wayibiza ngokuba "luqhanqalazo," yayinokubaluleka kwezopolitiko eIndiya kunokubaluleka kokwenyani emkhosini phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan. Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku baye baba zizifundo bhanyabhanya zeBollywood, zibenza babe yinxalenye yentetho ethandwayo ethandwa nguModi.
Kule nyanga nje, i-Guardian ixele ukuba amagosa ezobuntlola avela kumazwe omabini atyhola ukuba iIndiya inomgaqo-nkqubo wokujolisa abanqolobi kumazwe angaphandle, nabantu abangama-20 babulawa ePakistan ukusukela ngo-2020. ukuba "nawuphi na umnqolobi uza kuzama ukuphazamisa i-India evela ePakistan, siya kunika muh tod jawaabโ (โimpendulo ebetha imihlathiโ). Wongeze wathi, "Ukuba kuyimfuneko, Pakistan mein ghus ke maarengeโ (โUkuba kuyimfuneko, siya kungena ePakistan size sibabulaleโ). Ukuza kwelinye ixesha lolonyulo, uSingh wayephinda amazwi kaModi angobugrogrisi obuvela โkuqhankqalazo lotyandoโ ngo-2019. EPakistan, le ngxelo yanyusa uloyiko ngokuziphatha kwamaIndiya, isenza buthathaka ngakumbi amathuba okuba kubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo phakathi kweIndiya nePakistanโ into enokuquka ukuthotywa komkhosi eKashmir, ukuphela kwenkxaso yokuwela imida yomkhosi wamazwe omabini kunye notshintshiselwano olukhulu phakathi kwamaIndiya namaPakistani ngolawulo lwee-visa eziphumlileyo kunye nokwanda korhwebo kunye nentsebenziswano.
Iziyalo ezichasene nePakistan zemigaqo-nkqubo yengingqi yeModi, ngokombono wePakistan, yinxalenye yezopolitiko zasekhaya ezichasene namaSilamsi ezichaze iBharatiya Janata Party (BJP) elawulayo phantsi kweModi. Abalandeli besizwe abangamaHindu babeke amaSilamsi amaIndiya njengeengxowa zabo zokubetha ekhaya, kwaye iPakistan, uninzi lwayo lwamaSilamsi kunye nembali ehambelana neIndiya, idlala indima efanayo kwinqanaba lengingqi. A kutsha nje umbiko yi-India Hate Lab, iqela lophando elisekelwe eWashington, DC, libonise iziganeko ze-668 ezirekhodiweyo zentetho yentiyo ejoliswe kumaSulumane eIndiya ngo-2023. Kwezi ziganeko, i-255 yafika kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kunye ne-413 kwisiqingatha sesibini-iphawula Ipesenti ezingama-62 zonyuka kulwakhiwo lonyulo jikelele, uninzi lwazo zonke ezi ziganeko zenzeka kumazwe aseIndiya anoorhulumente beBJP abalawulayo. Umbono obalaseleyo ePakistan kukuba lo mkhwa, kunye nokudumba okuhambelanayo kweemvakalelo ezichasene nePakistan, kuya kukhula ngakumbi njengoko unyulo lwaseIndiya luqhubeka ngo-Epreli nangoMeyi, kwaye nokuba-okanye ukuba uqikelelo olukhoyo luchanekile, xa-uModi ephumelela ikota yesithathu ilandelelana.
Ngolu lindelo, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo basePakistan bacinga ukuba i-Indiya eqhubekayo phantsi kwe-Modi ayiyi kuvuma ukubandakanya i-Pakistan vis-ร -vis Kashmir, kwaye iya kwandisa inkxaso yayo kumaqela omkhosi asebenza ngokuchasene nelizwe lasePakistan, kuquka ne-Tehrik-i- Impahla yaseTaliban yasePakistan kunye neBaloch ehlukanisayo. Phantse iminyaka emihlanu emva kokuba iNqaku le-370 yatshitshiswa, kunye neNkundla ePhakamileyo yaseIndiya ukususela ekubeni yachitha yonke imingeni esemthethweni ekuqinisekiseni isenzo, ingcamango yeKashmir njengendawo elawulwa yiDelhi ngaphandle kokhuseleko olukhethekileyo lwangaphambili kunye nokuzimela okulinganiselweyo. zimiliselwe nzulu kwaye zibekwe eIndiya. IPakistan ayinakulindela ngokwenyani ukuba ilizwe laseIndiya lisijike esi sikhundla. Kuya kuba nzima kakhulu, ukuba akunakwenzeka, nakurhulumente ongeyiyo i-BJP ukuba ahlehlise olu tshintsho ngenxa yokoyika ukuhlaselwa ngabantu, nangenxa yesigwebo senkundla esichaza ukuba iKashmir ayinalo ulongamo lwangaphakathi oluyahlula kwamanye amazwe kunye nemimandla. .
Ijelo le-Track II yezozakuzaku phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan, ebandakanya iintlanganiso ezingezizo ezisemthethweni phakathi kwamagosa adla umhlala-phantsi kunye nezifundiswa zala mazwe mabini, kwaye kumashumi eminyaka angaphambili yagqalwa njengomthombo wethemba loxolo, ayikwazanga ukuvelisa nayiphi na intsingiselo. iziphumo kwiminyaka Modi. Ayiphelelanga nje ekusileleni ukuhambisa inaliti kwimiba yeKashmir kunye nobunqolobi, kodwa ayizange ikwenze oko ekuvuleni amajelo asemthethweni eengxoxo kunye nokusebenzisa idiplomacy ukusombulula iingxabano.
Xa ilizwe laseIndiya livaleleke kwindawo yalo eKashmir, iPakistan ifuna imeko entsha ebonisa imodeli yaseSino-Indian yobudlelwane bamazwe amabini. Ngokubanzi, oku kuya kuthetha ukuvula urhwebo ngaphandle kokunyanzelisa ukusonjululwa kwangaphambili kweengxabano zomhlaba ezingekabikho. Kangangamashumi eminyaka, kwaye ngaphandle kokungquzulana kwiindawo ekungavisisaniswanga kuzo kwiminyaka yakutshanje, iIndiya neTshayina zikwazile ukwenza ngokuthe chu kwaye zandise urhwebo lwamazwe amabini, oluxabiso lalo langoku limi malunga ne-136 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka. Uqikelelo lweBhanki yeHlabathi ka-2018 lubonise ukuba urhwebo lwaseIndiya-Pakistan lungakhula luye kwi-37 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngonyaka ukuba iimeko ezifanelekileyo ziyenzeka. IPakistan, esele ikwicala lokuwa koqoqosho ngokupheleleyo kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, ayinakukuhoya ukubaluleka okubalulekileyo kwikamva layo lokurhweba neIndiya, kwaye i-Islamabad ibizama ukufumana indlela yokufezekisa isithembiso sayo.
Xa ubhubhane wahlasela, iPakistan yaphinda yaqala ukungenisa amayeza avela eIndiya, kwiinyanga ezisithoba emva kokuba ilumise lonke urhwebo nalo mmelwane. Njengoko imeko yezoqoqosho iye isiba maxongo, iye yaphakamisa izithintelo ezingakumbi ukuze ifumaneke ngexabiso eliphantsi lempahla yaseIndiya. Ngo-Matshi, Umphathiswa Wezangaphandle wasePakistan, u-Ishaq Dar, uthembise "ngokujonga nzulu kwimicimbi yorhwebo neIndiya." Igxininisa ukuba ayisiyiyo iPakistan kuphela enokuzuzwa: IIndiya inokufumana iimarike ezinkulu ePakistan, kunye nezixhobo zokuqhubela phambili ukukhula kwayo. Ukuba kukho nantoni na, ngoqoqosho lwayo oluphezulu, iIndiya iya kukhusela uninzi lwemali eqikelelwa kwiibhiliyoni ezingama-37 zeerandi kurhwebo lwamazwe amabini-kunye nawo onke amandla ezopolitiko nozakuzo aya kuza nawo.
Nokuba kumkhosi wasePakistani, ubuqhetseba obuncinci bobudlelwane neIndiya obunokunceda ukutshintsha imeko yezoqoqosho yelizwe, ukuba nje iza ngaphandle kokuthomalalisa eKashmir, ayiyonto inzima. Nakuphi na ukonyuswa okulandelayo kurhwebo lwamazwe amabini, olunokubandakanya imvume yomkhosi wasePakistani kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba ngokusetyenziswa kwayo. amashishini amakhulu, yayinokunceda umkhosi ukuba uchache umva wamva nje wasekhaya ekubandakanyekeni nasekulawuleni ipolitiki yasePakistan. Ukongeza, ukuba urhwebo lunokuqinisa uxolo kumda, oku kunokuvumela umkhosi wasePakistan ukuba ugxininise ngakumbi ekujonganeni nokuvuselelwa komkhosi wenkolo kunye nobuzwe obusanda kubamba iinxalenye zelizwe. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa kwaye Balochistan amaphondo.
KwiPakistan, ke, kukho iingenelo eziqinisekileyo zokwamkela isakhelo se "Sino-Indian", kodwa umbuzo ophambili kukuba ingaba iIndiya, ekhokelwa nguModi kunye neBJP, iya kuvuma ukusebenzisana nePakistan ukuphuhlisa isakhelo esinjalo. Njengomvisiswano, iPakistan kufuneka ibuze ukuba yintoni enokuyenza ukukholisa iIndiya ukuba ilandele le modeli yobudlelwane bamazwe amabini.
Imbono enethemba kukuba sele kukho isiseko sokusebenzela. Ngaphezu kweminyaka emithathu, ukusukela ngoFebruwari 2021, iIndiya kunye nePakistan ziye zabona a ukupheliswa komlilo ecaleni kweNdlela yoLawuloโukwenza oku kube lolona nqumamo luhlala ixesha elide kwimbali yawo omabini la mazwe kwaye lubonisa ukuba uxolelwaniso lwezivumelwano lunokwenzeka njani na kungekuphela nje ukufezekiswa kodwa nokulondoloza. Oku kupheliswa komlilo kwaqalwa ngurhulumente weModi kwicala laseIndiya, kwaye kukho isizathu sokuthemba ukuba iya kuhlala ukuba ulawulo olutsha olukhokelwa yiModi lubuyela emandleni. Ngelo xesha, iPakistan inokuthemba ukuba urhulumente omtsha weModi unokuqiniseka ukuba aqalise ubudlelwane borhwebo.
Yintoni enokwenziwa yiPakistan ukunyusa amathuba oku kukuphelisa nayiphi na inkxaso ekhoyo kumaqela alwayo afuna ukuzimela kweKashmir elawulwa yiIndiya. Kangangeminyaka emininzi, iNew Delhi ibisoloko ityhola iPakistan ngokuxhasa ubunqolobi, kwaye into yokuba amaqela amaninzi asePakistan afuna ukuzimela eKashmir iyaliqinisa eli bango. Ngo-2022, iPakistan yabonisa i-Indiya ukuba yayinzulu ngalo mbandela xa yagweba uHafiz Saeed, umseki weqela le-Lashkar-e-Taiba, iminyaka engama-31 entolongweni ngezityholo zokuxhasa ubugrogrisi. Ukwahlukana okukhulu nala maqela kunokubonisa ukulungela kwePakistan ukuzibandakanya neIndiya.
IPakistan kufuneka ijonge ukuba i-Indiya isanda kuyitshintsha njani ingqwalasela yayo kubudlelwane bengingqi isuka kuMbutho wase-Asiya otyhafileyo weNtsebenziswano yoMmandla (SAARC) kunye neBay yase-Bengal entsha yeNtsebenziswano yoBugcisa kunye noQoqosho (BIMSTEC) entsha. I-BIMSTEC, ekomkhulu eDhaka, iquka onke amazwe e-SAARC ngaphandle kwePakistan, Afghanistan, kunye neMaldives, kwaye iquka iMyanmar neThailand. Ukushiya ngasemva icala elingasentshona le-Subcontinent, kunye neengxabano zase-India-Pakistan ezihlala zixokozela i-SAARC, i-BIMSTEC ifakwe njengenye indlela ye-SAARC kunye nendlela yokunciphisa impembelelo yase-China kulo mmandla. Amazwe e-BIMSTEC axhasa ukurhoxa kukaModi kwingqungquthela ye-SAARC ecwangciselwe ukuphela kuka-2016 e-Islamabad, eyabonwa yi-India njengoloyiso lozakuzaku ePakistan.
I-BIMSTEC inemida yayo, kodwa uphuhliso lwayo lufanele ingqwalasela yePakistan, ngakumbi kwinto eyithethayo ngekamva le-SAARC. Kuzo zonke iingxaki zayo, i-SAARC ibonelela ngendawo enokubakho yePakistan yokuzibandakanya neIndiya ekusukeleni ukuqheleka kunye norhwebo. Oonozakuzaku basePakistan banokwenza kakuhle ukubona ukuba ubutyebi bayo bunokuvuselelwa njani.
Apho izinto zihamba khona ziya kucaca kuphela emva konyulo lwaseIndiya. Urhulumente owomeleleyo we-BJP usenokungasiva isidingo sokuhlala kwitafile yothethathethwano nePakistan, ngenxa yezizathu ezibandakanya ipolitiki echasene nePakistan kunye nezopolitiko ezichasene namaSilamsi-okanye, ngethemba, uModi oqinisekiswe ngokupheleleyo ngokungabanjwa kwakhe ekhaya unokuziva ngathi unamandla. igumbi lokutyhala amaqhina aphuculweyo. Akukho kufihlwa, nangona kunjalo, ukuba le meko yamva inokwenzeka ekude kakhulu, njengoko kusenzeka ngokubanzi ubudlelwane beSino-Indian phakathi kweIndiya nePakistan. Kukho umahluko obalulekileyo phakathi kobudlelwane be-Indiya nePakistan kunye nobudlelwane bayo ne-China: i-Indiya kunye ne-China azinayo i-engile ye-communal kungquzulwano lwemimandla yazo. Nokuba iPakistan ifuna ukumka ekuthembekeni kwayo kubadlali abangengabo urhulumente eKashmir ukufezekisa uphuculo olunentsingiselo kubudlelwane bamazwe amabini, iIndiya ekhokelwa yiModi, kunye nentiyo ehlakulelwe kwiziko ngokuchasene namaSilamsi kunye nePakistan, ayinakwenzeka ukuba ithathe naliphi na inyathelo elinokuthi lithathelwe ingqalelo. sijongela phantsi ukuma kwayo kwezopolitiko ekhaya.
Ukuba i-India yaseModi iyaqhubeka nokulandela iminqweno yayo yobuzwe yamaHindu, ngokuchasa ngokungqongqo amaSilamsi kunye nokucinezelwa kwamalungelo asisiseko oluntu lwamaSilamsi aseIndiya, kuya kuba nzima ngokulinganayo kurhulumente wasePakistan ukuba athethelele ngokunyanisekileyo urhwebo oluphuculweyo kunye nobudlelwane, nangona kunjalo. ukuphelelwa kwayo kwezoqoqosho.
Eli nqaku liyinxalenye โModi's India ukusuka kwimida,โ uthotho olukhethekileyo ngu I-Himal yaseMzantsi Ukubonisa iimbono zengingqi yaseMzantsi Melika malunga neshumi leminyaka likaNarendra Modi esemandleni kunye nokubuya okunokwenzeka njengenkulumbuso kunyulo lwaseIndiya luka-2024. Inqaku lisasazwa ngokubambisana ne I-Globetrotter.
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