Will the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a substantial cut in interest rates avert a recession in the Estados Unidos and banish the spectre of a worldwide crash? Many experts think it will. At worst, they think the growth rate may slow down. Other observers in the capitalist camp are very worried. In France, Jacques Attali foresees a crash on Wall Street, home of the New York stock exchange and ultimate guarantor of the loan pyramid (1), and Michel Rocard is convinced that a world crisis is imminent and that the system is about to explode (2).
Mayroong maraming mga palatandaan ng alarma. May panibagong interes sa mga reserbang ginto at pagmamadali sa pagbili — ang presyo ng ginto ay tumaas ng 32% noong 2007. Ang lahat ng mga pangunahing institusyong pang-ekonomiya, kabilang ang International Monetary Fund at ang Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, ay hinuhulaan ang mas mababang paglago sa buong mundo.
Nagsimula ang lahat nang pumutok ang internet bubble noong 2001. Upang iligtas ang mga mamumuhunan, nagpasya ang US Federal Reserve chairman noon na si Alan Greenspan na i-promote ang market ng ari-arian sa pamamagitan ng pagpapakilala ng isang patakaran ng napakababang mga rate ng interes, at pagbabawas ng mga singil sa pananalapi. Nagbigay ito ng insentibo sa mga tagapamagitan sa pananalapi at mga nagbebenta ng ari-arian upang hikayatin ang mas maraming tao na mamuhunan sa mga brick at mortar. Kaya ang sistema ng mga subprimes, high-risk variable-rate mortgage loan para sa mga pamilyang mababa ang kita o sa mga may mahinang credit. Ngunit noong 2005, itinaas ng Federal Reserve ang mga batayang rate - ang mga kabawasan lamang nito. Nawala nito ang buong sistema at tumama ang mga epekto sa internasyonal na sistema ng pagbabangko noong Agosto 2007.
With three million US families facing insolvency and debts totalling $200bn, some major credit institutions ran out of funds. To cover themselves against this contingency, they had sold some questionable debts on to other banks. The banks put the debts into speculative investment funds, and the funds passed them on to banks all over the world. So the crisis spread and rapidly engulfed the entire banking system.
Major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch in the US, Northern Rock in Bretanya, Swiss Re and UBS in Switzerland and Société Générale in Pransiya, incurred huge losses and suspect there are more to come. To limit the damage, many had to accept funds from sovereign sources controlled by southern powers or oil-rich regimes.
The real extent of the damage is not yet clear. The central banks in the US, Europe, the UK, Switzerland at Hapon have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy since August 2007, but confidence was not restored. The crisis spread from the financial sector to the rest of the economy. Several factors — a rapid drop in house prices in the US, ang UK, Ireland at Espanya, the fall in the dollar, the credit squeeze — point to a decline in growth. Add to this the increase in the price of oil, raw materials and food products. All the ingredients for a crisis that will last for some time, the greatest crisis since the structure of the world economy has been based on globalisation.
The outcome depends on whether the Asian economies can take over from the US as the driving force. Another sign, perhaps, that the West is in decline and that the centre of the world economy is about to shift from the US sa Tsina. The crisis may mark the end of an era.
Isinalin ni Barbara Wilson
(1) L’Express, Paris, 13 Disyembre 2007.
(2) Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris, 13 Disyembre 2007.
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