Kulaylka caalamiga ah oo keliya ma dhicin
cause two of recorded history’s most intense Atlantic hurricanes—Katrina
iyo Rita-sannadkii 2005. Waxba "sababay" hal arin ma jirto
kali, iyo masiibo cimileed waqtigeena gabi ahaanba waa dabiici,
marka la eego "cagaha" weyn ee bini'aadmigu ku leeyahay meeraha.
New Orleans will recover, we are told. A proportion of its people
hubaal wuu soo noqon doonaa. Runta adag, si kastaba ha ahaatee, waa in waqti marka
dhulka hoostiisa magaalada ayaa sii quusaya, gacanka Mexicona si tartiib ah ayuu u socdaa
kor u kaca, marka ay duufaanadu ku sii kordhayaan biyaha diiran, hami leh
Qorsheyso in aad dib ugu dhisto New Orleans goobta ay hada joogto adiga oo ku kacaya kharash aad u badan
waxaa laga yaabaa in magaalada ay is dilaan.
Inta kale ee Gacanka Mexico ayaa sidoo kale soo kabsan doonta, si ay u diyaar garoobaan
qiyaasta xigta ee xaqiiqada deegaanka cusub. Galveston ayaa leh
hore ayaa loo sameeyay: 1900kii, dabayl Qaybta 4aad ayaa qasabtay duufaan
across the same island, killing 6,000 to 12,000 people who had not
looga digay. Duufaanadu maaha kuwo cusub, dabcan. Shakiga caalamiga ah
kululaynta ayaa ina xasuusin doonta xaqiiqadan cad. Maxaa cusub ayaa ah
inta jeer ee duufaanada daran, iyo sidoo kale daciifnimada dabiiciga ah
difaaca, sida jasiiradaha xannibaadaha, ee ku teedsan xeebaha.
New Orleans waa khasaaraha tirada badan ee wakhtigayagii ugu horeeyay ee cimilo
change in the United States, killing more than 1,000 people and
abuurista qaxootiga deegaanka ee boqolaal kun. Anaga
waa in wax laga barto masiibadaan. Ma noqon doonto tan ugu dambeysa.
Why, in a centuries-old city, has a hurricane caused such death
iyo fowdo sanadkan? New Orleans iyo inta kale ee Gacanka dhexe
xeebaha Mexico waxay la kulmeen duufaano badan, qaarkood aad bay u badan yihiin
daran, oo ay ku jiraan Betsy 1965 iyo Camille ee 1969. Sababuhu waa
many, and global warming is only part of New Orleans’ urban
meydka meydka.
Si kastaba ha ahaatee kulaylka caalamiga ahi waa arrin muhiim ah. Sida barafku u dhalaalayo
adduunka, heerarka badda ayaa si tartiib tartiib ah kor ugu kacaya. Biyaha kulul ayaa sidoo kale balaadha
oo boos badan qabsada. Intaa waxaa dheer, duufaanadu waa matoorada kulaylka.
Waxay ku nool yihiin oo u dhintaan sida uu qabo kulaylka biyaha kaas oo ka sarreeya
way dhaqaaqaan. Hal sabab oo muhiim ah oo Katrina ay si degdeg ah ugu qarxisay
Duufaantii labaad ee ugu xooga badnayd taariikhda Maraykanka waxay ahayd heerkulka
Gacanka Mexico, 88 ilaa 90 darajo Fahrenheit.
Heerkulka biyuhu waa ku kala duwan yihiin sababo aan ka ahayn kulaylka caalamiga ah. Atlantic
Duufaanadu waxay kordhiyaan 20 ilaa 30 sano oo wareeg ah, ka dib isbeddelada
heerkulka biyaha. Waxaan hadda ku jirnaa marxaladda firfircoon ee noocan oo kale ah
a cycle, compounded by generally rising air temperatures. Thus,
tirada iyo xoogga duufaannada ee Florida iyo Khaliijka
Gobollada xeebuhu waxay ahaayeen kuwo aad u sarreeya dhowrkii sano ee la soo dhaafay.
Marka lagu daro wareegyada dhaqdhaqaaqa duufaanka iyo kulaylka,
Marshes xeebaha ee Delta Mississippi ee mar la awoodi karo
New Orleans iyo meelaha deriska la ah ilaalinta qaar ayaa hoos u dhacay
muddo tobanaan sano ah, sababta oo ah biyaha iyo saliidda ayaa laga soo saaray
dhulka, laakiin sidoo kale sababtoo ah warshadaha saliida ayaa ku dhajiyay aagga
leh kanaalada gaadiidka. Dhul-gariir kasta oo duufaan ah waa uu sii kordhiyaa
horusocodka badweynta.
Saamaynta isku dhafan ee kor u kaca heerka badda iyo hoos u dhaca dhulka ee weheliya
Xeebta Louisiana waxay ahayd digniino badan oo la soo dhaafay
dhowr sano. Daraasado badan oo saynis ah ayaa caddeeyey in heerka badda
waxaa laga yaabaa inay kor u kacdo inta u dhaxaysa 8 iyo 20 inji inta lagu jiro qarniga 21aad. Ku darida
heerka badda ayaa kor u kaca hoos u dhaca, dadka deggan xeebaha ee aaggan
waxay filan kartaa korodhka saafiga ah ee heerka badda ee 15 ilaa 44 inji inta lagu jiro xiga
100 sano.
Haddii dabiicadda ahayd sheeko-yaqaane, waxa is-biirsaday ee cimilada
wars couldn’t get any sharper. A large proportion of U.S. oil-refining
Awoodda ayaa laga dhisay gudaha iyo inta u dhaxaysa New Orleans iyo Houston,
meelaha ay sida aadka ah u saameeyeen Katrina iyo Rita. Deegaankan waxaa ku nool saliid
iyo — marka la eego dabeecadda soo ifbaxda ee kor u kaca badaha iyo hoos u dhaca
dhul — waxaa laga yaabaa inuu ku dhinto. Halkaa marka ay marayso, dawladda ayaa la maamulaa
danaha saliidda la xidhiidha oo aan awoodin in ay arkaan mustaqbalka tamarta.
Bush iyo "saldhiggiisa" waxay u taagan yihiin inay ka helaan saliid qaali ah,
xataa sida dadka kale intooda badan lumin. Muddada dheer, xagga cirifka fog
taariikhda (dhulkaas oo Bush aanu dan ka lahayn "sababtoo ah
Anigu markaas waan dhiman doonaa”) isaga—iyo annagu—waxaan ku jiri doonnaa gudaha
boos la mid ah sida dadka iibsaday stock ee blacksmitheries 125
sanado ka hor, markii uu soo baxay da'dii shidaalka fosil. Saliidda sida isha
tamarta ayaa noqotay mid deegaan ahaan duugowday. Waxay khatar ku tahay annaga
amniga qaranka macnaha ugu muhiimsan.
Marka laga soo tago arrimaha amniga qaranka, iyadoo la gubayo shidaal iyo kuwo kale
Shidaalka fosil waxaan kor u qaadaynaa heerka kaarboon laba ogsaydh ee jawiga
heerar aan la arkin tan iyo waagii dinosaurs-yada. Sannadba sanadka ka dambeeya,
dardargelinta jawaab celinta jawiga (sida gaaska
Kaarboonka iyo methane ee ka dhalaalinaya permafrost ee kululaynta degdega ah
Arctic) waxay noqon doontaa mid ka cad maanta. Intaa waxaa dheer, jawiga
waxay qaadataa ilaa 50 sano si ay u muujiso gubashada fosil iyo shidaalka wakhti kasta
muddo. Haddaba, heerkulku maanta waxa uu ka tarjumayaa isticmaalka,
roughly, 1960. Since then, world fossil-fuel consumption has increased
qiyaastii 500 boqolkiiba.
Sidaa darteed, haddii aan u maleyno in cimiladu ay hadda xun tahay, sug 50 sano. Sida
jawigu wuu kululaadaa, duufaanadu guud ahaan waxay noqdaan kuwo qaraxyo badan. Ka kulul
hawadu waxay haysaa uumiga biyaha badan waxayna u ogolaataa horumarinta duufaanka.
Tani waxay run u ahayd duufaannada iyo sidoo kale duufaannada. Ilaa 110
mayl koonfur-galbeed ee Omaha, tusaale ahaan, duufaantii ugu weyneyd ee la diiwaan geliyo
(laba mayl u jirta) ayaa magaalada Hallam ka masaxday khariidada intii lagu jiray bishii Maajo
2004. Isla deegaanka ayaa sidoo kale hadda leh xuquuqda faanista ee ugu weyn
roobdhagaxyaalaha la duubay, inta u dhaxaysa cabbirka kubbadda jilicsan iyo kantaloupe.
Duufaannada iyo kulaylka caalamiga ah
The relationship (or lack
thereof) between hurricane intensity and warming atmospheric temperatures
way adag tahay xaqiiqda ah in heerkulka biyaha (sida heerkulka hawada)
mararka qaarkood way kala duwan yihiin, muddo dhowr iyo toban sano ah, oo ay la socdaan
long-term trend “signal” provoked by greenhouse-gas levels.
Tusaale ahaan, heerkulka biyaha ee Badweynta Atlaantigga, kaas oo soo saara
ku dhawaad dhammaan duufaannada saamaynta ku leh Maraykanka,
have been rising steadily since the 1970s, paralleling a general
kor u kaca heerkulka hawada ee caalamiga ah.
Soo noqnoqda iyo xoogga duufaannada (iyo sidoo kale tirada garaaca
Xeebaha Mareykanka iyo waxyeelada weyn) ayaa sidoo kale kor u kacday
during the same period. Any study that takes the record back to
1970-yadii waxay muujinayaan xidhiidh aad u adag oo ka dhexeeya kulaylka badda,
xoogga duufaanka, iyo heerkulka hawada. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, intii lagu jiray 1950-yadii
iyo 1960-meeyadii, heerkulka hawadu guud ahaan wuu ka qabowsanaa marka loo eego xilligii
1970-meeyadii, laakiin heerkulka biyaha iyo xoogga duufaanta ayaa sare u kacay-
mar labaad, celcelis ahaan. Sannadkii 2005tii kala duwanaanshiyahani waxa uu sii shiday dood tijaabo ah
u dhexeeya khubarada duufaannada qaarkood ee ku saabsan haddii, iyo heerkee,
xoogga duufaanta iyo inta jeer ee waxay la xiriirtay kulaylka guud
isbeddel. Dooddan ayaa inta badan ku soo daadatay fagaarayaasha dadweynaha sida Florida
iyo deegaanada ku xeeran waxaa 2004tii ku dhuftay afar duufaan oo waaweyn
iyo sidii xilliyadii duufaanta 2005 ay u dejiyeen diiwaanka tirada la magacaabay
duufaanada Juulay.
Daraasad ayaa lagu daabacay Nature Ogosto 4, 2005, ayaa tilmaamay in
the “dissipation of power” of Atlantic hurricanes had
more than doubled in the previous 30 years, with a dramatic spike
tan iyo 1995, kulaylka caalamiga ah iyo kala duwanaanshiyaha heerkulka badda
wada shaqayn. Daraasada, oo uu sameeyay Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Saynisyahanka cimilada Kerry Emanuel, ayaa ahaa qofkii ugu horreeyay ee tilmaamaya tirakoob
relationship between rising sea-surface temperatures and storm intensity.
Isbeddelku waxa uu ka tarjumayaa cimri dhererka dabaylaha iyo xoojinta weyn,
Labadaas Emanuel waxay la xiriiraan kororka heerkulka sare ee badda.
“The large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented and
waxay u badan tahay inay ka tarjumayso saamaynta kulaylka caalamiga ah. Natiijooyinkaydu waxay soo jeedinayaan
that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone
awoodda wax dumisa iyo-iyaga oo tixgelinaya kororka
dadka xeebaha — koror la taaban karo oo ku saabsan duufaanta
khasaarihii qarnigii 21-aad,” Emanuel ayaa qoray.
Intii lagu jiray xagaagii 2004, Florida iyo meelaha ku dhow ayaa la garaacay
afar duufaan oo waaweyn (Charley, Frances, Ivan, iyo Jeanne) gudaha
lix toddobaad, iyadoo mala-awaalku kor u kacayo ee ku saabsan suurtagalnimada duufaannada
xiriirka kulaylka caalamiga ah. Mid kasta oo ka mid ah duufaannadan ayaa la qiimeeyay
tobanka ugu sarreeya duufaannada noocan oo kale ah si ay ugu dhuftaan Maraykanka marka la eego
khasaaraha caymiska, ilaa ay dhaafeen Katrina iyo Rita.
kale
daraasaddu waxay gaadhay gunaanad la mid ah. Marka la gaaro 2080-aadkii badaha kululaa waa ay dhici karaan
sababto in celcelis ahaan duufaantu ay xoojiso qiyaas nus tallaabo oo dheeri ah
ee miisaanka Saffir-Simpson, sida lagu sheegay daraasad lagu sameeyay
kombuyuutarrada sare ee Waaxda Ganacsiga Dareeraha Juquraafiga
Shaybaadhka firfircoonida ee Princeton, New Jersey. Daraasad la mid ah ayaa filaysa
roobkaas oo ilaa 60 mayl u jira xudunta duufaanta
ku dhawaad 20 boqolkiiba ka miisaan Daraasadani waa mid muhiim ah sababtoo ah
waxay isticmaashay nus darsin masalo kombuyuutar ah oo cimilo caalami ah la hindisay
by separate groups at institutions around the world.
Moodooyinka Thomas R. Knutson iyo Robert E. Tuleya waxay muujinayaan in,
iyada oo loo malaynayo in heerkulka dusha sare ee badda uu kordho 0.8 ilaa 2.4 darajo
Celsius, duufaanadu waxay noqon karaan 14 boqolkiiba aad u daran (ku salaysan
cadaadiska dhexe), oo leh 6 boqolkiiba korodhka dabaysha ugu badan
xawaaraha iyo 18 boqolkiiba kor u kaca ee celceliska heerarka roobabka gudaha
100 kiiloomitir oo xarumo duufaan ah.
Dabayaaqadii Agoosto 2005, Hurricane Katrina waxay tijaabisay xaaladda degdegga ah
qaabaynta diyaarinta ee New Orleans iyo inta kale ee Bartamaha
Xeebta Gacanka oo leh 150 mayl-saacaddii dabayl, duufaan kor u kacday sida
30 cagood, iyo akhriska cadaadiska barometric-ka labaad ee ugu hooseeya gudaha Maraykanka
taariikhda.
Markay ahayd Agoosto 30, laba maalmood ka dib Katrina waxay timid xeebta Gulfport,
Mississippi, Wakaaladda Maareynta Degdegga ah ee Federaalka (FEMA) waxay ahayd
calling its landfall the most significant natural disaster in the
taariikhda Maraykanka-80 boqolkiiba New Orleans waxay ahayd
biyaha hoostooda iyo magaaladu ma lahayn awood, biyo la cabbo, iyo maya
meel lagu aaso meydadka aan la tirin. Xeebta Gacanka, gudaha iyo dhowba
Biloxi, Gulfport, iyo Mobile, duufaan 30-foot ah oo kor u kac ah ayaa wada noqotay
magaalooyinka xeebta ku teedsan oo isku jira leben jabsan iyo shid. Fetid,
kulaylka qoyan ayaa waxa u beddelay khatar caafimaad oo uraysa.
The storm surge wiped away the town of Waveland, Mississippi, 50
miles waqooyi-bari ee New Orleans. Qaybaha waaweyn ee Biloxi, Gulfport,
iyo magaalooyin iyo magaalooyin kale oo xeebaha ah ayaa soo gaaray burbur ku yimid aakhiro
miisaan. Shan milyan oo qof ayaa awoodda ka luntay, qaar badan oo ka mid ah waxay ahaayeen dhowr
toddobaadyo. "Xaalado kiiskii ugu xumaa" ayaa ka dhinac maray xaqiiqada.
Waxay Noqonaysaa Apocalyptic
Tim Wagner, Nebraska State
Guddoomiyaha Caymiska, wareysiga ku saabsan Omaha World-Herald
three days after Katrina hit, said that global warming is causing
weather- related disasters to be more severe and more frequent.
"Waa cabsi," ayuu yidhi. "Waxay noqonaysaa apocalyptic."
Sabtida, Sebtembar 3, oo ah maalintii lixaad kadib dhulkii duufaanta.
Wakaaladda wararka ee Associated Press ayaa sheegtay: “Gallinka dambe ee duhurnimada, jeebabka kaliya
niman qalaad ayaa ku haray waddooyinka agagaarka xarunta shirarka,
iyo shaqaalaha caafimaadka ee New Orleans ayaa bilaabay in ay qaadaan meydadka. Hal mar firfircoon
Magaalada oo ay ku nool yihiin 480,000 oo qof, oo ay la wareegeen maalmo ka hor daadad, dhac,
kufsi iyo gubasho, hadda waxay ahayd xabaal madhan oo madhan." The New York
Times ayaa soo wariyay: “Todoba maalmood ka dib markii ay burburtay duufaantii Katrina
Xeebta Gacanka, New Orleans oo loo yaqaanno firfircoonida Ameerika
caasimadda jazz iyo xafladaha Mardi Gras ayaa meesha ka baxay. In ay
meeshu waxay ahayd magaalo qayb ahaan la quusiyay oo guryo cidlo ah oo burbursan ay ka jireen
meheradaha, maydadka saqafyada ama sabbaynaya waddooyinka cidlada ah,
rafaad taas oo ku dhawaad 500,000 oo degganaasheeda ku nool badi galisay
qurbo joog ah oo ka kooban qiyaasta kitaabiga ah…. Saraakiisha ayaa ka digay a
Mustaqbal aan macquul ahayn oo ah magaalo burbursan oo aan lahayn cunto, biyo, koronto
ama waxyaabaha kale ee loo baahan yahay, kaliya daacuunka, tiifowga ama kaneecada
sida duumada ama fayraska Niilka Galbeed."
Marna
ka hor ayaa magaalo weyn oo ku taal Maraykanka laga saaray
dadka. Laba toddobaad ayaa u dhexeeyay duufaanta iyo dadaal wadajir ah
in la ururiyo maydadka ku daadanaya biyaha daadku si tartiib tartiib ah u sii yaraanaya.
Magaalada waxa ay ku qallajisay wax ka yar hal bil, kaliya waxa la arkay wax cusub
daadad ka yimid burush ay la socoto Hurricane Rita, markii xarunteedu timid
ashore almost 300 miles southwest. The levees had become so fragile
in yar oo ka badan roob adag (ma aha wax aan caadi ahayn New Orleans, xitaa
Duufaan la'aanteed) waxay ku dabaalan kartaa xaafado badan.
Sannado ka hor, saynisyahannada aagga ayaa mooday xaalad la mid ah
in an exercise they called “Hurricane Pam.” They had known
in New Orleans ay daadad ku yeelan doonto khasaare nafeed oo aad u weyn, laakiin
dabciga foosha xun ee xaqiiqada ayaa ka baxsaday xataa iyaga.
Laba toddobaad iyo badh ka dib markii Katrina ay garaacday, Madaxweyne George W. Bush
wuxuu istaagay Quarter-ka Faransiiska wuxuuna u sheegay daawadayaasha telefishinka qaranka
in xukuumaddiisa oo si weyn loogu dhaliilay
jawaabta daahsan ee duufaanta, waxay "samayn doontaa waxa ay qaadato"
in dib loo dhiso New Orleans iyo inta kale ee xeebaha Gacanka ee burburay.
Estimates of the cost at the time ranged up to $200 billion.
Maalintii xigtay, in Science, daraasad kale oo la xidhiidha kor u kaca biyaha
temperatures directly to the number, duration, and intensity of
duufaano. Cilmi-baarayaasha, oo uu hoggaaminayo Peter J. Webster oo Georgia ah
Machadka Teknolojiyadda, wuxuu ogaaday in tirada duufaannada ee ku jira
Labada qaybood ee ugu awoodda badan, 4 iyo 5, ayaa kor u kacay celcelis ahaan
18 sannadkii adduunka oo dhan laga soo bilaabo 1990-kii, laga soo bilaabo 11 sannadihii 1970-yadii. Waxaa jiray
ma kordhin tirada duufaannada, cilmi-baarayaashu waxay yiraahdeen, kaliya
xooggooda. Kor u kaca xoogga ayaa ku soo beegmay koror
ee ku dhawaad 1 darajo Fahrenheit ee dusha sare ee badaha kulaala ee ku wareegsan
aduunka.
Mareykanka ayaa dib uga dhacay inta badan caalamka intiisa kale
Annaga oo ogaanayna in habka tamartayadu ay tahay in ay isbeddelaan inta lagu jiro qarnigan.
Even today, most families in Denmark have a share in a wind turbine.
Midowga Yurub wuxuu canshuuraa injiin kasta oo shidaal ka weyn laba
litir oo aad u culus. Dabaysha iyo tamarta qoraxda waa ganacsi halis ah
Yurub. Maraykanku ma diidi doonaa inuu aqoonsado deegaanka
xaqiiqooyinka dhabta ah? Haddii aan samayno, waxaan ku dayan doonaa dadka Easter Island,
kuwaas oo dhistay dhaqan sare oo ku salaysan dhaqaalaha xaabada iyo (sida lagu tilmaamay
oo uu qoray Jared Diamond buugiisii dhawaa Collapse) wada cunay
jasiiradda geed kasta oo u dambeeya. Jiilasha danbe ayaanu ku leenahay si ka wanaagsan
intaas ka badan.
Bruce
E. Johansen, oo ah borofisar ku takhasusay isgaarsiinta ee Jaamacadda Nebraska
Omaha, waa qoraaga Kulaylka Caalamiga ah ee
Qarnigii 21aad (Praeger, 2006).