Vazhinji vedu tine chokwadi chekuti sarudzo dzeIraq svondo rino hadzisi kuzochinja zvakanyanya - US ichaenderera mberi nekuyedza kudzikamisa Iraq uye kuramba kucharamba kuchipikisa. Chiyero chemhirizhonga chicharamba chiri pamusoro, pamwe chete nehuwandu hwekushaya mabasa; kutsigirwa kwekuvapo kweAmerica kucharamba kwakaderera, pamwe chete nehuwandu hwekuvakazve.

 

Asi kana sarudzo isiri chiitiko chakakosha, zvakadaro chiratidzo chakakosha chemhando dzese dzezvinhu nezve mamiriro muIraq. Saka avo vedu vari kuedza nekusingaperi kufunga kuti chii chiri kuitika vane mukana wakanaka wekuongorora zvirwere zvichienderana nezvinoitika zuva iroro uye shure.

 

Heano mashoma ezviratidzo zvakakosha izvo isu tese tinofanira kunge takatarisa.

 
Voter Turnout

 

Vese vezvenhau vari kutaura nezve kuvhota, asi kuti tigadzirise ruzha kubva muchinhu, ngatiite runyoro rwematanho akakosha.

 

·         Tarisa kuvhota kwese pamusoro kana pasi pe50%. Nekuda kwekuramba kweSunni nekutyisidzirwa kwevakuru vekuvhota, nzvimbo dzekuvhotera uye kunyange vavhoti, US inotarisira kuti hafu yevavhoti vane mamirioni gumi nemana vachabuda. Zvakawanda kukundwa kukuru, zvakanyanya kukunda kukuru kweUS

 

·         VaShia vachabuda muhuwandu here? Wese munhu anoziva kuti vashoma veSunni uye vangangove vese vaKurds vachavhota. Kadhi remusango iShia, uye US iri kubhengi pavanenge 70% vanobuda munzvimbo dzeShia seSadr City, Basra uye kunyange Najaf. Vatori venhau vazhinji vakazvimirira vari kuti, zvisinei, huwandu hwevaShia hwakaraswa kana kutsigira zvakataurwa naMoqtada al Sadr zvekuti hapana sarudzo dzine musoro kusvika US yabva. Saka kana turnout muSouth (semuenzaniso, Najaf, Basra) iri 50% kana pazasi, idzi inhau dzakaipa kwazvo kuUS.

 

·         Pane vhoti yeSunni here? VaSunni ndivo vanotsigira zvose zvekumukira uye kubhomba. Turnout ichave yakaderera mumaguta eSunni, kunyanya maguta ane hondo dzirikuenderera mberi, seMosul, Ramadi, uye Samarra (uye anenge asiripo muFalluja). Asi zvakaderera sei? IUS inoti vazhinji veSunni vanoda kuvhota, asi vanotyisidzirwa nekutyisidzira kwemhirizhonga (ona pazasi). Vanopikisa vanoti maSunni anotsigira kurova uku. Saka chero chinhu chinodarika makumi maviri neshanu muzana vanobuda mumakiyi hotspots ndiko kuhwina kweUS

 

·         Ko Baghdad. Iyad Allawi akati anotarisira "kusvika makumi manomwe muzana" kubuda muBaghdad, asi uku kunenge kuri kumwe kuwedzeredza kwakaitwa neMutungamiriri wenguva yeIraq. Baghdad kazhinji iSunni uye ndiyo imwe yenzvimbo dzakanzi neGurukota rezvemukati menyika dzine njodzi kuita sarudzo. Asi iguta rimwe chete reSunni uko US iri kuyedza kukunda kuramba uku, uye vazhinji veSunni ikoko ndevenyika uye nekudaro vakazvipira kushoma. Saka kana kuvhota munzvimbo dzeSunni dzeBaghdad (zvinenge zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zveguta) kuri pamusoro pe70%, US ichave nekukunda kukuru. Kune rumwe rutivi, kana iri pasi pe50%, ichava kukundwa kweU

 

mhirizhonga

 

Pachave nemhirizhonga yakawanda pazuva resarudzo, asi hazvizoite kuti ive yakasiyana kubva kune chero rimwe zuva munhoroondo yeIraqi ichangopfuura. Kunyange kana iine chisimba chakanyanya kudarika nguva dzose, ichange ichiri zvakanaka mukati mezvinotarisirwa, zvichipiwa kutsunga kwechikamu chikuru chekupikisa kuvhiringidza sarudzo. Nekudaro, kune akati wandei mapatani ekutarisa ayo anogona kuve akakosha zvakanyanya.

 

·         Vavhoti vakanangana here? Kusvika pari zvino, mhirizhonga ine chekuita nekupikisa kwesarudzo yakanangana nemapurisa nevakuru vehurumende chete (chinhu icho vezvenhau veUS vatadza kuburitsa). Nzvimbo shoma dzekuvhotera dzakarwiswa dzange dzisina vanhu. Vepepanhau reUnited States vanga vachishambadza kutyisidzira kune vavhoti kwakabudiswa nezvimwe zvinhu zvekupikisa, vachivimbisa kuuraya chero munhu anoedza kuvhota. Kutyisidzirwa uku hakutsigirwe nezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda zvekupikisa (semuenzaniso, Sangano reVadzidzi veMuslim, boka rehutungamiriri hwemafundisi), vanotsigira kurwisa Bato chete nevabatsiri varo (vakuru vehurumende, mapurisa nemauto, uye vanhu vanoshanda. kumauto agere). Kana kutyisidzirwa kwevanhuwo zvavo vanoedza kuvhota kukaitwa pazuva resarudzo, zvicharatidza simba rakakura kune bapiro remagandanga rekupokana uye zvichave zvipingamupinyi kune AMS nevabatsiri vayo vanotsigira kukunda vanhuwo zvavo.

 

·         MaShia anonangwa here? Kusvika pari zvino chirongwa chekurwisa sarudzo chatekeshera munzvimbo dzeSunni. Pakave nekurwiswa kushoma kwevatungamiriri vevafundisi veShia vakakurudzira vateveri vavo kuti vavhote, asi vanomiririra chikamu chidiki chemhirizhonga yekurwisa sarudzo uye kurwiswa uku kwakashorwa nezvimwe zvinhu zvekupikisa (zvakare, AMS ndiyo kiyi. boka rinoshora zviito zvakadaro). Kana paine mhirizhonga yakakura munzvimbo dzeShia pazuva resarudzo, izvi zvicharatidza kusimba kwemasekete mukupikisa vanoona maShia semuvengi wavo, zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu hwevanopikisa vanorwisa Basa chete nevatsigiri varo.

 

Migumisiro

 

Isu tatoziva kuti sarudzo hadzisi kuzobvisa US kubva pakuraira kwayo kwehurumende yeIraq. Zvakadaro, sarudzo ichave mucherechedzo wakakosha wekusimba kwemaitiro akasiyana ezvematongerwo enyika. Nyatsoteerera kune izvi zvabuda

 

·         Ko Ali al Sistani vanovimbika vachatonga paramende nyowani? Slate yakasanganiswa naAyatollah Ali al-Sistani, iyo Unified Iraqi Coalition, zvechokwadi ichawana mavhoti akawanda, asi vachakwanisa here kuraira ruzhinji rweparamende itsva? Kana zvakadaro, uku ndiko kukunda kukuru kwaSistani uye zvinogona kureva kuti paramende ichakwanisa kutaura nezwi rakabatana rinogona (kana richida) kuramba (zvichida rhetorically) mutemo weUS (ona pazasi). Ichokwadi kuti pamusoro peiyi slate (senge ese makuru maslates, anodzorwa neaya akashanda nebasa uye akatsigira zviito zveUS sekuparadzwa kweNajaf Old City uye Falluja yese; zvisinei pfungwa yesarudzo ichave. bvumira Sistani nevamwe vake kuti vasundire paramende kune imwe nhanho inoenderana neyakaomesesa yavo (ine mwero) maitiro akakosha kuBasa.

 

·         Ko Allawi achave akasimba zvakakwana kuchengetedza chinzvimbo chehutungamiriri. Chirevo chaAllawi, The Iraqi List, hachizombosviki kusimba reSistani's slate, asi iye (neUS) ari kutarisira kuratidzwa kwakanaka kunomuratidza semutungamiri anoshanda. Kana akasarira kumashure, kunenge kuri kurambwa kwehurumende yenguva pfupi, uye kudzosera kumashure kuUS, uye zvinogona kureva kupera kwebasa rake semumiriri anooneka wemauto e-pro-Occupation.

 

·         VaKurds vachakunda here Kirkuk. Kirkuk ndeimwe yenzvimbo shoma uko hondo yemasekete inogoneka. Yagara iine nharaunda dzakasimba dzeKurdish, Turkman, uye Sunni Arab, asi izvi zvakatonyanya kupesana apo Saddam akapinda mukuchenesa maKurds uye akatamisa mazana ezviuru zveSunni maArabu muguta. Iye zvino maKurds ari kuyedza kudzinga maSunni kunze, wedzera Kirkuk, ive guta guru reKurdish, uye kutora mafuta ari pasi payo. Kana sarudzo dzikaunza ruzhinji rweKurd muparamende yepurovhinzi, unogona kutarisira kuti vaKurds vawedzere kuita zvehasha mumushandirapamwe wavo, uye izvi zvinogona kuguma nehondo yechokwadi yemadzinza seinowanzofanotaurwa nevatungamiriri veUS.

 
Zviito Zvekutanga zveParamende Itsva

 

Kunyange vasati vatanga kunyora bumbiro idzva, dare reparamende richange richizeya nyaya mbiri dzinogona kuita kuti America inonetsa kugadzikana.

 

·         Ko paramende itsva ichasarudza mutungamiriri weAmerica. IUS iri kufamba kuseri kwezviratidziro kuti paramende nyowani isarudze Iyad Allawi kuti aenderere mberi seMutungamiriri, ichishandisa kutonga kwayo zviwanikwa sekaroti netsvimbo. Nekudaro, kana Allawi akakanganisa musarudzo, vanozofanira kumusiya vosarudza mumwe munhu ane modicum yekuvimbika. Kana maShia vakawana hutongi hwavo hwavanotarisira, zvakadaro, vanogona kusarudza mumwe munhu akazvimirira kubva kuUS uye kugadzira dambudziko guru rekutonga magariro eBasa, kunyanya kana mutungamiri mutsva akasarudza kugara achitsoropodza zviito zveUS.

 

·         Ko paramende itsva inoda kuti US bvisa mauto ayo? Ali al Sistani's Unified Iraqi Coalition ine seyayo yekutanga puratifomu iyo US yakaisa hurongwa hwekubvisa. Mazhinji emamwe maslate anewo zvido zvakafanana, saka hazvigoneke kuti paramende itsva igove neruzhinji rwakasarudzwa padanho rekubuda kweUS. Vashoma veSadrist muparamende vanozoda kuti iyi ive yekutanga kurongeka kwebhizinesi uye saka tinogona kuona kukakavara nekukurumidza mukati meparamende, uye kunyadzisa kukuru kweUS kana vakasarudza kuenderera mberi nechikumbiro chakadaro. Chinokosha kumugumisiro chichava ichi: kana paramende ichida nguva yakatarwa, US ichabatwa mumatambudziko makuru (sezvo Bush akavimbisa kukudza chikumbiro chakadaro). Asi kana paramende ichida kuti ibviswe kana mauto eIraq "akagadzirira kubata chengetedzo," iyo US inenge yanzvenga bullet. (Muchiitiko chekupedzisira, tarisa mhinduro huru kubva kumaSadrists (ona pazasi).

 

Mushure meSarudzo

 

Mugadziriro yesarudzo iyi muine zvivimbiso zvakawanda — zviri pachena kana nemanomano — izvo zvinogona kuzadzikiswa kana sarudzo dzapera. Saka chengetedza maziso ako kune izvi zvinogona kuitika:

 

·         Mhirizhonga ichaderera here? The Occupation and the Interim Iraqi Government yanga ichitaura kuti kurwa kuchangobva kuitika kuri kunyanya kana kungoedza kukanganisa sarudzo (vanowanzo ratidza semhepo yekupedzisira yebato riri kufa). Kureva kuti tinofanira kutarisira kuti mhirizhonga ichapera kana sarudzo dzapera. Nguva pfupi yadarika vanga vachivharidzira mabheti avo pane izvi, asi nyika icharamba ichitonga kuvimbika kweOccupation uye hutongi hwevatengi vayo nehuwandu hwemhirizhonga mwedzi unouya.

 

·         Will the US kurega kuita zvinhu zvinogumbura. MuWashington neBaghdad pave nekuburitswa kwegwaro rekuti kana sarudzo dzapera, US ichatora chimiro chemauto chine hukasha, vamwe vachiratidza kuti sarudzo dzichashandiswa mukuderedza mauto. Chiratidzo chakakosha chekutsvaga ndechekuti US inoregedza madhiraivha ayo makuru munzvimbo inochengeterwa vapanduki, ichishandisa mhomho yemauto nesimba remhepo kuputsa nharaunda kana maguta ese, kana kuti panzvimbo pacho kubuda mumabhesi nekurwa chete.

 

·         Ko iyo UN ichawedzera kushanda mukati Iraki. Kana sarudzo dzapera, UN inogona kuzivisa kuti mamiriro akazadzikiswa kuti iite zvakanyanya muIraq. Hurukuro hutsva uhu hunogona kutosanganisira basa reGermany neFrance, zvichipa US rudzi rwekodzero dzepasirese dzavakatadza kuwana kusvika zvino. Kunyangwe ichi chingave chirefu-pfuti, chiri chokwadi chimwe chinhu icho Bush Administration ichatsvaga.

 

·         Ko vaSadrists vachatora chinzvimbo chakajeka chinopokana nehurumende? Moqtada al Sadr nemauto ake eMahdi Mauto atora chinzvimbo chisina kujeka uye chisinganzwisisike kusarudzo, sezviri pachena vakamirira kuona mhedzisiro vasati vafunga kuti vobatana sei nehutungamiriri hutsva hunobuda. Imwe pfungwa ine musoro yavanofanira kutora ndeyekuti hurumende itsva iyi haisi pamutemo sezvakaita yekare, zvikuru kana paramende itsva ikatadza kushevedzera kuti paitwe hurongwa hwekubvisa hurumende. Kana maSadrist vakaita danho rekupokana kuhurumende itsva, zvingangoreva kuti nzvimbo dzeShia dzingave nzvimbo yekurwa kukuru - uye pamwe kuvandudzwa kwehondo yehugandanga. Asi kunyangwe vakaita hunyanzvi husina kusimba, kushora kwaSadrist kuhurumende itsva kunogona kuumba hunyambiri hwakajeka munharaunda yeShia pakati pemauto eSadrist neaya eAl Sistani, kana kusundira Sistani mune imwe nhanho inopokana neBasa kupfuura iye. yave nayo kusvika zvino.

 

 

Ndizvo chete vanhu. Izvi zvinofanirwa kupa chibodzwa chekutonga mhedzisiro, kunyangwe tichifanira kuchera zvakadzama muEthernet kuti tiwane humbowo hwakakodzera.

 

 

Michael Schwartz, Purofesa weSociology paState University yeNew York kuStony Brook akanyora zvakanyanya pamusoro pekuratidzira kwakakurumbira uye kupandukira, uye nezvebhizimusi reAmerica uye masimba ehurumende. Basa rake riripo Iraki yakaonekwa paZNet neTomDispatch, uye muZ Magazine. Mabhuku ake anosanganisira Radical Politics uye Social Structure, Iwo Simba Mamiriro eAmerican Bhizinesi (naBeth Mintz), uye Social Policy uye Conservative Agenda (yakarongedzwa, naClarence Lo). Anogona kusvikwa pa mschwartz25@aol.com.

 

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