Sezvo mauto eBurmese anoparadza zvine hutsinye kumukira kwakakurumbira kwevagari vayo vachida democracy mubvunzo uri mupfungwa dzakawanda ndewekuti - saka nyika ichaitei nezvazvo?
Kubva pane maitiro anoonekwa kusvika zvino mhinduro iri nyore- hapana zvachose.
Hapana, kureva kuti, kunze kwekutsoropodzwa uye kukumbirwa kweumwari 'kwenhaurirano ine runyararo' uye kumisikidzwa kumaforamu epasi rose kutsigira vanhu vekuBurma.
Hapana chimwe chinopfuura kutumira mumiriri weUN akaremara kunotaurirana nevakuru vakuru veBurmese. Kutaurirana chii? Mariro evanyajambwa vavo vasina mhaka akatemerwa pasi setsuro mumigwagwa yeRangoon?
Hazvirevi kuti hapana chingaitwe zvachose - kutanga, ko kudzinga hutongi hwemauto husiri pamutemo kubva pachigaro cheUN chairi kuramba ichitora nekuchitsiva nehurumende yakasarudzwa-muhutapwa? Nei Burma ichifanira kuramba iri nhengo yeASEAN kana nekuda kweiyo nyaya, nekusarudzika, zvakare yeAsia-Europe Musangano kana ASEM?
Zvakadini nezvirango zvepasi rose kumakambani ekunze ari kuita bhizinesi muBurma- kusanganisira gumi nemaviri uye mazhinji emakambani ekuMadokero kunze kweaya anobva kuAsia? Sei makambani makuru emafuta akaita seChevron yekuUS, Malaysian Petronas, Daewoo International Corp yekuSouth Korea kana French Total achifanira kuramba achibatanidzwa muBurma pasina kutarisana nezvirango zvekutsigira kwavo humwe hudzvanyiriri hunotyisa pasi rose?
Mhinduro dzeiyi mibvunzo yekutanga ndedzekutanga zvakare- iBurma yakawanda zviwanikwa uye mikana yekudyara iyo inonyanya kukosha. Iipi hurumende inopa dambarefu kune vagari veBurmese vakasungwa vari kurwisa hutongi hwechifascist hwakavhurirwa mabhizinesi ekunze uye kuvharira vanhu vayo.
Zvichitevera kudeurwa kweropa muBurma Mutungamiri mutsva weFrance Nicholas ‘Napoleon’ Sarkozy semuenzaniso akadana makambani eFrance kuti amise mabasa awo ese muBurma. Kuvhara pazvitsitsinho zvake Gurukota rezvekune dzimwe nyika Bernard Kouchner akajekesa zvisinei kuti hofori yemafuta yeFrance Total, kambani huru yeEurope inoshanda muBurma, haizobudiriri nekutya kuti 'vachatsiviwa nemaChinese'.
Gordon Brown, Mutungamiriri weBritain akataurawo 'kutsamwiswa' nehunhu hwehurumende yeBurma hunosemesa asi ainetsekana nezvemakambani eUK achidyara mari muBurma. Pakati pa1988 na2004 makambani anobva kumatunhu eBritish akaisa mari inodarika £1.2bn muBurma, zvichiita kuti Britain ive yechipiri mukurusa mari munyika ino inonzi yakasarudzika. Zuva rinoita sekunge harina kungonyura paHumambo hweBritish chete asi-pakubuda-rakadzamisawo hana dzevezvematongerwo enyika.
Hurumende yeJapan, chimwe chiyeuchidzo chehunyengeri hwepasi rose, yakadonhedza misodzi yegarwe pakuuraiwa kweropa rinotonhora kwaKenji Nagai, mutori wenhau wekuJapan akapfurwa nemurwi weBurma mushure mekunge adonha pasi achitora mifananidzo mhomho yevaratidziri yaitiza. Kuwedzera hushingi hwose pakuraira kwayo Tokyo yakakumbira 'tsananguro' uye yakawana mhinduro 'oops….very sorry' kubva kuBurmese Foreign Minister uyo anofanira kunge akagunun'una kuti 'zvaive nyore - Moroni San'.
Pamubvunzo wekubvisa rubatsiro kune hutongi hwemhondi hweBurma hongu maJapan akanyatsojekesa chinzvimbo chavo- 'yakanyanya kukurumidza' kuita zvakadaro. Vangangove vakamirira zvine ruremekedzo kuti hurumende iuraye vanhu vese vekuJapan vasati vaita chero chinhu - kufa kweBurmese hakuna mhedzisiro.
Matauriro akanyanya kufungidzira akabuda kubva kuMutungamiriri weUnited States, VaGeorge Bush, avo vachizivisa huwandu hwezvirango kuvatungamiriri vemauto eBurma vakati, "Ndinokurudzira mauto nemapurisa eBurma kuti vasashandise chisimba kune vamwe vavo".
Imbomira zvishoma, ndizvo zvinodzidziswa mauto nemapurisa eBurma kupfura vamwe vagari vemo- saka Bush aiedza kutaura nezvei? Senguva dzose iye chete neMuiti wake- waanoti anotora mirairo kwaari zvakananga- anoziva.
Bush angadai akataura mazwi akasarudzwa ari nani asi hapana kana rimwe rawo raizove rakatendeseka richibva kumurume ane rekodhi yehondo uye kuuraya vanhu vakawanda muIraq neAfghanistan. Ihwo hutongi hweBush hutongi hwehutongi hwehutongi hwehutongi hwepasi rose hwekodzero dzevanhu hwakaitorera kodzero yekutaura kunyangwe chinhu chakaderera seBurmese junta nezve chero chinhu. Mamiriro ezvinhu anosiririsa zvechokwadi.
Zvakadini neBurma's shamwari dzekare dzakaita seThailand, Singapore kana Malaysia idzo dzakashamisika neimwe nhengo yeASEAN yakaratidza 'kupokana' nekushandiswa kwechisimba chinouraya kurwisa vanhu vasina mhosva? Chirevo chavo chakagamuchirwa pasina kupokana asi chinouya makore makumi maviri anonoka kuti ave nerevo chaiyo.
Vatongi vemauto eBurma vakatodzikama mutemo weASEAN we "kuvaka kunovaka" kune izvo zvaive zvakakosha kuti vatsigire hutongi hwavo kumba uye kuhwina nzira yekudzokera mukuzivikanwa kunze kwenyika. Mukutanga kwemakumi mapfumbamwe mauto eBurma aive pasi uye kunze yaive ASEAN yakavapa rubatsiro uye ushamwari vachitsiura avo vaidaidza demokrasi muBurma sekusaziva 'tsika dzeAsia'.
Zvese izvi zvinosiya China neIndia, vavakidzani vaviri hofori yeBurma, avo kwenguva yakareba vakadurura junta yeBurma nekudyara, rubatsiro uye kutengeswa kwezvombo uye avo nyika zvino inotarisira kushandisa 'pesvedzero' yavo pamusoro pevakuru.
Kutsigira kweChina hutongi hweBurmese hazvishamise zvachose kune nyika ine rekodhi yayo yakashata yekudzvinyirira mafambiro edemokrasi kumba nekupfura vanopikisa veruzhinji. Ini handifunge kuti maChinese ari kushushikana chaizvo nezveBurmese democracy inokonzeresa chimwe chiitiko chakaita seTiananmen munyika yavo- kwete nekukurumidza kana uye kwete sekureba sekunge Chinas 'mutengi boom ichichengeta huwandu hwayo hwehpnotised.
Muchokwadi maChinese, pragmatic sezvavari uye vanoziva kuchengetedza mari yavo yakawanda muBurma, vanogona zvakare kuve pakati pevekutanga kushingaira kupidigura junta yeBurmese kana vachinzwa kuti mafambiro ekuratidzira kwedemocracy ave kuda kukunda. Mamiriro avo emangwana paBurma achaona senge yo-yo zvichienderana nekuti ndeipi katsi, nhema kana chena, iri kubata mbeva.
Panyika dzose pasi rose nzvimbo inonyadzisa zvikuru inoitwa neIndia, yaimbova nyika yevaMahatma Gandhi asi yava kutungamirirwa nevezvematongerwo enyika vane hunhu hunoita kuti mutengesi wemafuta enyoka ashungurudzike. India inoda kutaura pamukana wega wega kuti ndiyo 'democracy yakakura kwazvo pasi rose' asi zvainoudza hapana munhu, asi munhu wese anogona kuona, ndeyekuti manzwisisiro ayo edemocracy ndeye 'yakaderera mhando'.
Nei hurumende yeIndia ingangotumira Gurukota rayo rePetroleum Murali Deora kusaina chibvumirano chekuongorora gasi nemauto emauto mukupera kwaGunyana sezvayaironga kuuraya vanhu vayo zvisina tsarukano. Mumakore achangopfuura India, pakati pezvimwe zvibvumirano zvinotapira, yanga ichibatsira mauto eBurmese nemaoko uye kudzidziswa- sekunge mabara avo akange asiri kurova vanhu vavo nemazvo.
Zvakanga zvisiri nguva dzose zvakadai. Iyo "yakanaka" chikamu cheIndia yekune dzimwe nyika mutemo wekuita kuBurma misi kubva apo Mutungamiriri weIndia Nehru nemumwe wake wekuBurma U Nu vaive shamwari dzepedyo uye vakasarudza marongero akavakirwa pakuvimba nekushandira pamwe. Mushure mekudzingwa kweU Nu mukupidigura kwemauto muna 1962, hurumende dzeIndia dzakatevedzana dzakapikisa udzvanyiriri pamusimboti.
Pakukwirira kwebato rinotsigira demokrasi muna 1988 sevhisi yeAll India Radio yeBurmese semuenzaniso yakatodaidza General Newin nevarume vake 'imbwa' (zvichinyomba imbwa hongu). Nekuuya kwehurumende yeP.V.Narasimha Rao muna 1992 kunyangwe iri India yanga ichikwenya muswe nguva yese iyi.
Iyo "pragmatic" chikamu cheIndia yekune dzimwe nyika mutemo wakananga kuBurma kubva kutanga kwemakumi mapfumbamwe chaireva kukanda misimboti kunze nepahwindo uye kuita chero chinhu chinodiwa kusimudzira zvido zveIndia nehupfumi. Chimwe chikonzero chekugadzika kusvika kune vemauto junta kwaive kudiwa kwaifungidzirwa kurwisa 'simba reChinese' pamusoro penyika.
Mumakore ese aya, zvisinei, pane humbowo hudiki hunoratidza kuti zvido zvenguva refu zveIndia zvakasangana zviri nani ne "amoral pragmatism" pane "muddledismism" yaivepo munguva yakapfuura. Muchokwadi, izvo zvinobuda pakunyatsoongorora yazvino mutemo weIndia ndezvekuti, kune yayo yese realpolitik gloss, mubatsiri chete ihurumende yeBurmese pachayo.
Tora ngano yeIndia ichipokana neChina iyo, sekureva kwevaongorori vedziviriro veIndia mumakumi maviri emakore apfuura vakawana kukosha kwakasimba muBurma, kumisikidza mauto akananga India uye aine simba rakawanda kuhurumende nekufunga kwayo. Vanoti kumira kwehutongi hwejekerere muIndia mushure memhirizhonga yeBurma ya1988 yakapa mukana wekuti nyika dzakaita seChina nePakistan dziswedere pedyo nevakuru vemauto eBurma.
VeIndia nevamwe vanoongorora zvedziviriro, nekuona kwavo kupenya kwenyika semutambo we geo-political chess, vanokanganwa kuti danho rehurumende yeIndia panguva iyoyo kutsigira bato rinotsigira democracy rakanga risiri “kukanganisa” kwakazvarwa nekusaziva, asi chiratidzo chepamutemo. yerutsigiro rwechokwadi rwevanhu veBurma pakati pevagari veIndia.
Ngano yechipiri inokurudzira gurukota rezvekunze reIndia kuti rinyengetedze vakuru veBurmase ndeyekuti nekuita izvi India inogona kuwana rutsigiro rweBurma mukumisa kutengeswa kwezvombo nezvinodhaka izvo zvinokonzeresa hupanduki muIndia yekuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva. Iyi nharo inotora kuti hurumende yeBurmese inoda uye inokwanisa kudzora zviitiko zvevarwi veIndia uye vanotengesa zvinodhaka zveBurmese pamuganhu. Panyaya yekutengeswa kwezvinodhaka kubva kuBurma pane chikonzero chekunetseka-mapoka ari pedyo nehurumende anobatsirwa zvakananga kubva mukutengeserana.
Kuburikidza nehurongwa hwayo hwazvino hurumende yeIndia haina kana chimwe chezvinangwa zvayo muBurma uye panzvimbo pacho yakabvisa bato reBurma re-pro-democracy nemamiriyoni evatsigiri pasi rose. Nepo zvikamu zvevagari veIndia vasingakendengi kana kusaziva nezvehurongwa hwehurumende yavo kuBurma, kunyarara kwavo hakurevi kubvumidzwa.
India haisi yedemocracy nekuda kwerunako rwevayo vezvematongerwo enyika, vatungamiriri uye "vaongorori vekudzivirira" asi zvisinei navo uye nekuda kwekuvenga kwakasimba kwehudzvanyiriri hwemhando ipi neipi pakati pevanhu veIndia. Yasvika nguva yekuti hurumende yeIndia iremekedze manzwiro evavhoti uye yakamira kushandisa zvisirizvo izwi rekuti "zvido zvenyika" kutsigira vadzvanyiriri vemauto eBurma.
Kana vari vanhu veBurmese ivo pachavo izvo kushaya simba kwenyika nemaune mukubata nevatongi vavo vane hutsinye ndezvekuti pakupedzisira vachazowana hutongi hwegutsaruzhinji muBurma nesimba ravo pachavo.
Vanhu vepasi rose vachavatsigira nechero nzira yavanogona asi kutarisira kuti hurumende dzepasi rose dzibatsire kubvisa hutongi hwemauto eBurmese hazvina musoro sekukumbira hurumende kuti isinde yega. Hapana imwe sarudzo kunze kwekuramba kurwa kuenderere mberi.
Satya Sagar munyori, mutori wenhau uye mugadziri wevhidhiyo anogara muNew Delhi. Anogona kusvikwa pa [email inodzivirirwa]
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