Chiwopsezo cha Cold War yatsopano chakula kwambiri posachedwapa, osati chifukwa chakuukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine komanso chifukwa US idavomereza China ngati mdani wamphamvu kwambiri yemwe akuyenera kukhala. Uwu ndiye mtundu wa zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe munthu amakumana nazo pakati pa akatswiri odziwika bwino. Komabe, katswiri wa maphunziro a chikhalidwe cha anthu wa ku Lebanon Gilbert Achcar akunena kuti kutanthauzira kumeneku kwa maubwenzi apakati pa dziko lamasiku ano ndikuyimira molakwika za chisinthiko cha ndale zapadziko lonse kuyambira kumapeto kwa nthawi yotchedwa Cold War, yomwe inayamba mu 1947-1991, ndipo yakhazikika pa chiwonongeko. maganizo osokoneza pa nkhani ya โCold Warโ yatsopano. Zowonadi, m'mafunso otsatirawa, Achcar akutsutsa kuti Nkhondo Yatsopano Yozizira yakhala ikuchitika kuyambira kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990 ndipo tsopano tili pa siteji yomwe ingakhale yotentha.
Gilbert Achcar ndi pulofesa wa maphunziro a chitukuko ndi mgwirizano wa mayiko ku School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. Iye ndi mlembi wa mabuku ambiri, kuphatikizapo Anthu Akufuna: Kufufuza Mozama Kwambiri Kuukira kwa Aarabu; The Clash of Barbarisms: The Making of the New World Disorder; Mphamvu Zowopsa: Middle East ndi US Foreign Policy (yolembedwa ndi Noam Chomsky), ndi Marxism, Orientalism, Cosmopolitanism. Buku lake laposachedwa, lomwe langotulutsidwa kumene, ndi The New Cold War: United States, Russia ndi China kuchokera ku Kosovo kupita ku Ukraine. (Mabuku a Haymarket 2023).
CJ Polychroniou: Kuukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine ndi mgwirizano wake ndi China zapangitsa olemba ndemanga ambiri kuti alankhule za kuyamba kwa Nkhondo Yozizira Yatsopano. Komabe, m'buku lanu lomwe latulutsidwa kumene New Cold War: United States, Russia, ndi China kuchokera ku Kosovo kupita ku Ukraine, mumatsutsa kuti kugawanika kwatsopano kwa geopolitical East-West, ndipo motero kutuluka kwa New Cold War, kungayambike kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990, makamaka ku nkhondo ya Kosovo. Tiyeni tiyambe ndi kumvetsetsa kwanu kwa mawu oti "nkhondo yozizira" chifukwa ndikuwona ambiri akutsutsa kutanthauzira kwanu kuyanjana kwa mayiko padziko lonse lapansi dziko la Russia lisanawukire Ukraine.
Gilbert Achcar: Pali chisokonezo chachikulu pa nkhani ya nkhondo yozizira yatsopano. Kugwiritsa ntchito mawuwa sikunayambe kuchuluka tsopano, koma kuyambira 2014 zokhudzana ndi ubale wa US ndi Russia komanso kuyambira Trump kwa omwe ali ndi China. Malingaliro osiyanasiyana adakhalabe omwewo, pakati pa omwe amakhulupirira kuti tili pachiwopsezo, omwe amakhulupirira kuti zangoyamba ndi kuwukira kwa Ukraine, ndi omwe akuchenjezabe kuti zitha kuchitika. ! Choyenera mu zonsezi, komabe, ndikuti lingaliro la "nkhondo yozizira" silinagwirizane ndi kutsutsa kwamalingaliro ndi mwadongosolo komwe kunalipo pakati pa ma blocs otsogozedwa ndi Soviet ndi US. Magwero a mawu akuti "nkhondo yozizira" komanso lingaliro la Nkhondo Yozizira Yatsopano zonse zikufotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane m'buku langa.
Kwenikweni, "nkhondo yozizira" ndizochitika zomwe dziko limakhalabe lokonzekera nkhondo popanda (komabe) kuchita "nkhondo yotentha." Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mpikisano wa zida ndi umene unapangitsa kuti Cold War ikhale yoteroyo, ndipo ndafotokozera kuyambira kumapeto kwa 1990s momwe United States idasankhira kusunga ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito zankhondo potengera zomwe zidachitika pankhondo yolimbana ndi Russia. ndi China. Chigamulochi chinali chokhudzana ndi malingaliro ena odzutsa maganizo a Washington, zomwe zinandipangitsa kuzindikira chiyambi cha zomwe ndinazitcha New Cold War mu 1999. Zomwe zinachitika kuyambira pamenepo zikhoza kutsimikizira kuti matendawa ndi otani, ndipo ndizoseketsa kuti lerolino, pamene dziko liri. kufupi ndi nkhondo yapadziko lonse yotentha kwambiri monga momwe yakhalira chiyambire 1945, ena akali ozengereza kunena zokopa!
CJP: Kodi mdani weniweni wa Washington ndi ndani panthawi yomwe muli chiyambi cha Nkhondo Yozizira Yatsopano, ndipo chifukwa chiyani nkhondo ya ku Kosovo yasintha kwambiri padziko lapansi pambuyo pa Cold War?
GA: Panali ndemanga zambiri pambuyo pa kutha kwa USSR ponena za kufunika kwa Washington kuti apange mdani watsopano wapadziko lonse. Ena ankakhulupirira kuti "uchigawenga" wathetsa vutoli, koma "uchigawenga" suli mtundu wa "mpikisano wa anzawo" omwe Washington akufunikira kuti ateteze kukhulupirika kwa ogwirizana nawo a Cold War, omwe Zbigniew Brzezinski adatcha "abwenzi" ake otchuka. Pokhazikitsa khalidwe lake lenileni poganiza kuti onse a Russia ndi China anali adani omwe angakhale adani, United States yayambitsanso mikangano ndi Russia-ndipo idapanga zatsopano ndi China, itatha kugwirizana nayo motsutsana ndi USSR pazaka 15 zapitazi za Cold War.
Nkhondo ya ku Kosovo inali yotsimikizika chifukwa idasokoneza malingaliro aliwonse omwe Moscow ndi Beijing akanakhala nawo ponena za "dongosolo la dziko latsopano" lolonjezedwa ndi George Bush Sr. mu 1990, pamene anali kukonzekera nkhondo yoyamba yotsogoleredwa ndi US ku Iraq yomwe inachitikira m'dzina la malamulo apadziko lonse lapansi ndikuvomerezedwa ndi chigamulo cha UN Security Council chomwe Moscow idavomereza komanso pomwe Beijing idakana. Bush Srโmโnkhani yotchuka yokambidwa, modabwitsa kwambiri, pa September 11, 1990โanalonjeza kuti, kuyambira pamenepo, dziko lidzakhala โlosiyana kotheratu ndi limene takhala tikulidziลตa: dziko lokhala ndi ulamuliro. malamulo amaloลตa mโmalo ulamuliro wa nkhalango.โ Moscow ndi Beijing akuyembekeza kuti bungwe la UN kuyambira pano lidzagwira ntchito yomwe idapangidwira poyambirira, motero kuwapatsa ufulu woletsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu pa ubale wapadziko lonse. Momwemonso, oyang'anira a Bill Clinton adatsimikizira Moscow kuti kukulitsa NATO ku Poland, Hungary ndi Czech Republic sikunali kolimbana ndi Russia. Ndipo komabe, chaka chomwecho 1999 pamene kukulitsidwa kumeneku kunasindikizidwa ndi chaka chomwe NATO inayambitsa nkhondo yake yoyamba, nkhondo ya Kosovo, kulepheretsa UNSC ndikuphwanya malamulo apadziko lonse.
CJP: Putin adasankhidwa kukhala purezidenti waku Russia patangotha โโโโmiyezi ingapo nkhondo ya Kosovo itatha ndipo nthawi yomweyo adayamba kutsatira ndondomeko zapakhomo ndi zakunja zomwe zidapangidwa kuti zipangitse Russia kukhala yolimba komanso, kukhalanso wosewera wamkulu pazochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi. Kuchokera pamalingaliro anu, chinali chisankho cha Putin cholanda Ukraine chifukwa chongokulitsa ubale wa NATO komanso ubale wake womwe ukukula ndi Ukraine kapena, monga akatswiri ena ambiri amatsutsa, mwinanso gawo limodzi la mapulani okonzanso ufumu wa Russia ndi kubwereranso. ku 19th m'zaka za ma imperialist?
GA: Pali choonadi m'mafotokozedwe onse awiri, m'malingaliro anga. Kukula kwakum'mawa kwa NATO m'zaka za m'ma 1990, komanso "mankhwala odabwitsa" a neoliberal omwe Washington adalimbikitsa ku Russia pambuyo pa Soviet komanso kulimbikitsa kwake kwa machitidwe odana ndi demokalase a Boris Yeltsin, zidayambitsa kukwera kwa Putin pampando. Anayenera kumeza mapiritsi owawa kwambiri a gawo lachiwiri la kukulitsa kwa NATO, losindikizidwa mu 2004, lomwe linawonjezera ku Alliance mayiko atatu omwe kale anali Soviet Republic of the Baltics, pamodzi ndi mayiko ena a East Europe. Kenako anafotokozanso za mayiko ena awiri omwe kale anali Soviet Republic omwe NATO, Ukraine ndi Georgia, inalinso ndi malire ndi Russia.
Pamene, mu 2008, George W. Bush adakankhira kuti mayiko awiriwa alowe ku NATO ndipo adalandira kuchokera ku Alliance lonjezo loti awaphatikize ngakhale kuti French ndi Germany zinali zokayikitsa, Putin adachitapo kanthu, poyamba ndikulowa ku Georgia mu 2008, kenako ndikuwonjezera Crimea ndi kulowera kum'mawa kwa Ukraine mu 2014, pambuyo pa chipwirikiti cha ku Ukraine cha chaka chomwechi komanso Kyiv atachoka ku Russia. Kusokoneza uku kudapangitsa kuti maiko onse awiri asagwirizane ndi NATO, kuopera kuti Mgwirizanowu ungapezeke pankhondo ndi Russia.
Pachifukwa chimenecho, kulowerera ku Eastern Ukraine kukanakhala kokwanira. Kulandidwa kwa Crimea kunathandizanso cholinga china, kulimbikitsa kutchuka kwapakhomo kwa a Putin, zitatsika pansi pambuyo pobweranso monga purezidenti mu 2012 motsutsana ndi ziwonetsero zambiri. Putin adasewera zautundu waku Russia komanso kukonzanso zidziwitso zaulamuliro wake ndipo wakhala akukula kuyambira pomwe amakambitsirana za malingaliro aku Russia. Kukula kwa NATO ku Ukraine kunali kosatheka kuyambira 2014. Kuukira kwa Ukraine pa February 24, 2022, sikungathe kufotokozedwa ndi NATO factor. Kunali kuyesa kolakwika komanso kolakwika kwambiri kwa Putin kuti agonjetse Ukraine, mwina ndi cholinga chophatikiza ndi Russia. Zinathandiziranso kutengeka kwaulamuliro wake ku neo-fascism: ulamuliro wankhanza wadziko lozikidwa pa demokalase yabodza.
CJP: Masiku ano, Russia ndi China zili pafupi kwambiri kuposa kale ndipo akuyesera kusintha dongosolo ladziko. Kodi pali kusiyana kotani ndi kufanana pakati pa Cold War Yatsopano ndi Old Cold War?
GA: Gawo lina la yankho la funso lanu lili mufunso lokha: kuyambira 1961, China idalowa muubwenzi wotsutsana kwambiri ndi USSR, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti igwire ntchito ndi United States motsutsana ndi mdani wake "wachikominisi", kuyambira m'ma 1970, mpaka dongosolo la Soviet linayamba kutha.
Kachiwiri, ku Russia ndi China, ndi yachiwiri yomwe ili ndi mphamvu zazikulu masiku ano: Russia imakhalabe ndi mphamvu zankhondo zapamwamba-ngakhale inataya "kudalirika" kwakukulu ndi kulephera kwake komweku ku Ukraine-koma GDP yake inali yochepa kuposa South. Korea mu 2021!
Kusiyana kwachitatu n'chakuti, pamene Nkhondo Yozizira inali yodziwika ndi kutsutsa kwadongosolo pakati pa magulu awiri, Nkhondo Yozizira Yatsopano sinali. Putin ali ndi anthu ambiri omwe ali kumanja kwakutali, kuphatikiza a Donald Trump, kuposa omwe ali kumanzere omwe amakhala mu nthawi yopumira akukhulupirira kuti Putin ndi kubadwanso kwatsopano kwa Stalin. China, kumbali ina, imanyansidwa ndi ufulu wolimba ngati dziko la "chikominisi". Mgwirizano pakati pa Moscow ndi Beijing sichifukwa cha machitidwe ogwirizana. Lingaliro loti tikuwona mkangano pakati pa demokalase ndi ulamuliro waulamuliro ndikungoyesa kubwezeretsanso kunamizira kwa Cold War yaku Washington kuti ikuphatikiza Dziko Laulere. Mfundo yoti wina ngati wolamulira wakumanja waku India, Narendra Modi, ndi nyenyezi yokhazikika ku Joe Biden's. Msonkhano wa Demokalase, komanso kuti Jair Bolsonaro wakumanja waku Brazil adatenga nawo gawo m'mawu am'mbuyomu omwe adachitika mu Disembala 2021, ndizomveka bwino.
Kufanana kwakukulu ndizomwe zimapanga "nkhondo yozizira" poyambirira: kumangidwa kwankhondo kosalekeza kumbali zonse ziwiri za mpanda komanso chizolowezi chomachulukirachulukira chakuwona ubale wapadziko lonse lapansi ngati masewera a zero, pomwe omenyera atatuwa ali. kupikisana ndi chikoka chapadziko lonse lapansi.
CJP: Kodi Cold War Yatsopanoyi ingakhale yotentha?
GA: Chabwino, mwatsoka inde, ndipo izo zikugwirizana ndi kusiyana kwina pakati pa New Cold War ndi yakale. Panali zodziwikiratu za USSR panthawi ya Cold War. Mabungwe ndi osamala mwachilengedwe, ndipo maulamuliro a Soviet analinso chimodzimodzi. Zinali zodzitchinjiriza nthawi zambiri, kuphatikiza pomwe zidatuluka m'malo ake a 1945 kwa nthawi yoyamba ndikuukira Afghanistan kumapeto kwa 1979. Asia Soviet Republics pambuyo pa "Islamic Revolution" ya Iran.
Zinthu zasintha ndi Putin. Ulamuliro wadziko, wodziyimira pawokha pazandale komanso wokonda zachuma, umakonda kwambiri zochitika zankhondo kuposa ulamuliro waudindo. Zotsatira zake ndikuti Putin adayambitsa kale nkhondo zambiri kuposa zomwe USSR idachita pambuyo pa 1945 mpaka kutha kwake: Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, komwe munthu ayenera kuwonjezera kulowererapo kwa gulu lankhondo la Wagner ku Libya, Sudan, Mali ndi Central African. Republic. Kukhalapo kwa gulu la "Wagner" kumafotokoza kwambiri za chikhalidwe cha ulamuliro wa Russia, kumene malire pakati pa zofuna za anthu ndi zachinsinsi ndizovuta kwambiri.
China, kumbali ina, ikuchitabe mogwirizana ndi malingaliro osamala a maulamuliro ake olamulira. Sichinayambitse nkhondo iliyonse kuchokera m'gawo lake. Imawona zomwe akuchita ku Taiwan komanso kuyenda kwake kwapamadzi panyanja zozungulira madera ake ngati chitetezo kunkhondo za US zomwe zazungulira China komanso kuputa kwa US kosatha.
Ponena za United States, idayambitsa maulendo ankhondo achifumu padziko lonse lapansi pambuyo pa 1945, kuphatikiza nkhondo ziwiri zazikulu ku Korea ndi Vietnam komanso kulowererapo pang'ono. Kenako idakhazikitsa kutha kwa Cold War ndikuukira kwakukulu ku Iraq mu 1991, kutsatiridwa ndi nkhondo ku Balkan ndi Afghanistan, komanso kulandidwa kwa Iraq mu 2003-2011. Amagwiritsa ntchito movutikira komanso mosaloledwa "nkhondo zakutali,โ makamaka pogwiritsa ntchito ma drones. Ndipo zikuchulukirachulukira ku China: Russia italanda dziko la Ukraine, idathamangitsa kugundana kwawo ndi Beijing m'malo moyesa kuyesera. kuzichotsa ku Moscow.
Kuwonjezera pa zonsezi kuti Putin wakhala akuwopseza kugwiritsa ntchito zida za nyukiliya, ndipo mumazindikira momwe zinthu zadziko lapansi zakhalira zoopsa. Mpikisano wapadziko lonse wa zida zankhondo wafika pachimake chatsopanodi. Posachedwapa bungwe la Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) linaona zimenezi ndalama zankhondo zapadziko lonse lapansi chakula mu 2022 kufika pamtengo wokwera $2240 biliyoni. Iwo anawonjezera kuti: โMโchaka cha 345, ndalama zimene mayiko a ku Central ndi Western Europe ankagwiritsa ntchito pankhondo zinakwana madola 2022 biliyoni. Ananenanso kuti "ndalama zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo zaku US zidafika $1989 biliyoni mu 877, zomwe zinali 2022 peresenti ya ndalama zonse zomwe zidagwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo padziko lonse lapansi komanso kuwirikiza katatu kuposa zomwe China idawononga." Tangoganizani zomwe zingachitike polimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, miliri, komanso njala ndi kachigawo kakang'ono ka ndalama izi.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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