Deepak Tripathi, mtolankhani wakale wa BBC Afghanistan, wachita chidwi kwambiri ndi United States, maubale amphamvu komanso South ndi West Asia kwa zaka zopitilira 30. Buku lake laposachedwa Kugonjetsa Cholowa cha Bush ku Iraq ndi Afghanistan yangosindikizidwa ndi Potomac Books, Inc., Washington, DC.
Patangotha โโchaka chimodzi kuchokera pamene Barack Obama adalowa m'malo mwa George W Bush monga purezidenti, zida zankhondo zaku United States komanso asitikali aku Afghanistan akuyesanso kuwongolera zigawenga. Ngakhale "kuwonjezeka" komwe General Stanley McChrystal adapempha ndipo Purezidenti Obama adavomereza patatha milungu ingapo akulingalira, zigawenga mbali zonse za malire a Afghanistan-Pakistan akupitiliza kunyoza mphamvu zaku America. Zochita zankhondo zapamwamba zolimbana ndi a Taliban ku Helmand, komanso posachedwa ku Kandahar, zikuwonetsa kuthekera ndi zolephera za mphamvu yayikulu. Izi sizatsopano. Asilikali ankhondo aku Soviet adakumananso ndi zomwezi panthawi yomwe adalanda Afghanistan m'ma 1980s. Mofanana ndi a Soviet, Achimereka akupeza kuti n'zotheka kugonjetsa madera ena, koma malinga ngati asilikali awo akugwira madera amenewo. Pamene akupita ku ntchito zina, zigawengazo zimabwerera.
Pali kufanana pakati pa maopaleshoni aposachedwapa a ku America omwe avomerezedwa ndi Purezidenti Obama ndi kuchuluka kwa magulu ankhondo a Soviet ku Afghanistan Mikhail Gorbachev atakhala mtsogoleri wa USSR mu 1985. Kumayambiriro kwa nthawiyi, Gorbachev adaganiza zobweretsa asilikali ake kunyumba pambuyo pa nkhondo yowononga ndalama ku Afghanistan. . Koma adalamulanso kulimbikitsanso kukula kofanana ndi opareshoni yaku America pano. Mwachiwonekere, kunali kupatsa gulu lankhondo la Soviet mwayi womaliza kuti apambane nkhondo ya Afghanistan, koma zenizeni chifukwa asanakonzekere kuchoka, Soviet Union inafunika kulimbikitsa. Asilikali omwe akuchotsedwa amayenera kuchotsera zida zina. Zida zolemera zomwe ziyenera kunyamulidwa sizingagwire ntchito nthawi imodzi. Asilikali akutuluka amanyamula zida zopepuka kuti adziteteze, osati zida zakupha zowopsa. Nthawi yomweyo, kuchuluka kwa mafoni ochulukira kumapangidwira kuchenjeza mdani za zovuta zomwe zikubwera.
Purezidenti Obama adalengeza kale kuti asitikali aku America ayamba kuchoka ku Afghanistan pakati pa 2011. Ulendo wanga waposachedwa ku South Asia udalimbikitsa izi. Obama ndi wanzeru mokwanira kuti adziwe mbiri yakale ndi maphunziro ake. Wakhumudwitsa ambiri omwe amamuthandizira omwe amayembekezera zambiri kuchokera kwa iye. Koma palibe kukayikira kwakukulu kuti angafune kuchoka ku Afghanistan. Kusankhidwanso mu 2012 kudzadalira pamlingo waukulu, pamodzi ndi chuma. Kuwonongeka kwa ntchito zankhondo kumayiko ena komanso kugwa kwachuma kunyumba komwe maboma adasiya kuyenera kukhala kodziwika m'malingaliro a Obama. Zomwe Obama akwaniritse sizotsimikizika. Koma pali zinthu zimene tingaphunzire kuchokera mโmbuyomo.
Utsogoleri wa George W Bush unakhazikitsidwa mu manifesto yomwe timadziwa kuti Project for the New American Century. Ntchitoyi idabadwa chifukwa cha utsogoleri wa Clinton pazaka khumi za Cold War m'ma 1990s. Mgwirizano wa neoconservatives ndi Christian Right unapatsa George W Bush thandizo lalikulu. Koposa zonse, utsogoleri wa Bush udzakumbukiridwa chifukwa cha ntchito zankhondo zakunja zaku America zomwe zili ngati nkhondo zitatu: nkhondo ya Afghanistan, nkhondo ya Iraq, ndi nkhondo yachitatu, yopanda malire komanso yosatha - 'nkhondo yapadziko lonse lapansi yowopsa'.
Zomwe zidachitika pa 9/11 zidabweretsa vuto lachitetezo chomwe sichinachitikepo. Mafunso ofunikira kwambiri ku Washington panthawiyo amayenera kukhala: Koyambira pati komanso poyimitsa? Kodi kukula ndi gawo la mayankho aku America akuyenera kukhala chiyani? Komabe, kulingalira koteroko kunalibe monga momwe nkhani ya 'nkhondo yayitali' kapena 'nkhondo yachibadwidwe' ikuwonetsera, ndithudi mu nthawi yoyamba ya Purezidenti Bush.
Mbiri ya maulamuliro akulu kumenya nkhondo zazitali kapena zapanthawi yolimbana ndi zigawenga sizabwino. United States idaphunzira izi ku Vietnam. Soviet Union idachita izi ku Afghanistan. Nkhondo yaitali ikugwirizana ndi zigawenga zomwe zakhazikika kwambiri m'madera ndi chikhalidwe cha zisudzo. Amapeza chithandizo chochuluka m'bwalo lankhondo. Kukana chowonadi chimenechi kaลตirikaลตiri kumapha. Purezidenti waku United States ali ndi zovuta zambiri zothana nazo. Koma kulemera kwakukulu kwa zochitika zazaka khumi zapitazi kumabweretsa kuganiza kuti utsogoleri wa Bush unali wokhudza nkhondo. Ntchito zakunja zomwe adayambitsa patangotha โโmiyezi ingapo atakhazikitsidwa zidaposa china chilichonse pautsogoleri wake. Choncho ndi koyenera kuunika cholowa cha pulezidenti wa Bush ponena za 'nkhondo yolimbana ndi uchigawenga'.
Cholinga cha nkhondo ya Afghanistan mu October 2001 chinali kusintha kwa boma. Pakhala mkangano wautali wokhudza cholinga chenicheni cha kuukira kwa Iraq mu Marichi 2003: zida zowononga anthu ambiri kapena kusintha kwa boma. Nthawi ndi zochitika zikuwoneka kuti zathetsa mkanganowo. Ananena kuti Saddam Hussein ali ndi zida za mankhwala ndi zachilengedwe zomwe zimatha kutsegulidwa mkati mwa mphindi 45. Zida zoterezi sizinapezeke. Zambiri zokhudzana ndi malingaliro ndi zokambirana pakati pa Washington ndi London, komanso likulu lililonse, zadziwika. Tikudziwa zambiri za kulumikizana kwachinsinsi pakati pa Purezidenti Bush ndi Prime Minister waku Britain a Tony Blair pokonzekera kuwukira kwa Iraq - kulumikizana komwe anthu ena ofunikira omwe amayenera kudziwitsidwa samadziwa. Ndipo taphunzira kuchokera kwa Tony Blair kuti ngakhale atadziwa kuti palibe zida zowononga anthu ambiri, akadagwiritsa ntchito mfundo zina kuti achotse Saddam Hussein.
Zambiri zanenedwa za zolakwika zomwe zikuchitika ku Afghanistan komanso, makamaka, Iraq. Cholakwa chachikulu cha chiweruzo chinali chakuti maiko awiri osiyana kwambiri anapatsidwa chisamaliro chofanana cha mphamvu zankhondo. Pochita izi, olowererawo adawoneka kuti achita kubwezera kuposa momwe adakonzera. Kupanda kutero, nchifukwa chiyani Afghanistan - dziko lolephera kwathunthu - lidzagonjetsedwa ndi mphamvu zamlengalenga zowononga ndikusiyidwa popanda kuyesa kwakukulu kumanganso kwa nthawi yayitali. Ndipo wolowererapo wamkulu adasamukira ku Iraq kuti akagwetse boma lokonzedwa bwino, wolamulira wankhanza atagonjetsedwa. Pochitira Afghanistan ndi Iraq mofananamo, olowererawo anachita zosiyana ndi zomwe zinkafunika m'dziko lililonse.
Kuwona al Qaeda ndi magulu osiyanasiyana okonda dziko la Aarabu ngati 'mdani' m'modzi mu 'nkhondo yolimbana ndi zigawenga' kunali kusawerengeka koyipa. Kutsimikiza pansi pa utsogoleri wa Bush kuti athetse kusakonda dziko la Muslim dziko la Muslim kunakwera mtengo kuchokera ku West. Koma mayiko a m'derali analipira, ndipo akupitiriza kulipira, mtengo wokulirapo. Ziwawa zauchigawenga za Al Qaeda zayankhidwa ndi mantha amphamvu zankhondo zaku America. Zolinga zosiyanasiyana za maulamuliro am'madera zidasakanikirana ndi zolinga zaku America mu 'nkhondo yolimbana ndi zoopsa'. Chikokacho chinali chachikulu m'dera lonselo, kubweretsa mkwiyo, mkwiyo ndi kupanduka kotheratu pakati pa anthu ambiri.
M'dziko lopanda maziko a dziko, kapena kumene zowonongeka zowonongeka, padzakhala zotsatira zina. Chofunika kwambiri cha ntchito ya boma ndikukhazikitsa bata. Imachita zimenezi mwa kukakamiza, kupereka msonkho ndi kugawa. M'dziko monga Afghanistan, kudzikonda, banja, fuko, fuko ndi fuko zimakhala zofunikira kwambiri. M'malo olephera kapena ofooka, mabungwe ena - mkulu wa m'mudzi, mfumu ya fuko kapena mtsogoleri wankhondo - m'malo mwa boma. Amalamula otsatira ambiri, chifukwa amapangitsa kuti zinthu zichitike.
Ku Iraq, zisankho ziwiri zoyambirira za woyang'anira waku America a Paul Bremer pambuyo pakuwukira kwa 2003 zidayambitsa mikangano yambiri. Mwa Order Number 1 ya Meyi 16, Bremer adathetsa Chipani cha Ba'ath. M'nkhani ya Le Monde diplomatique, wophunzira waku Britain Toby Dodge adafotokoza za kuchuluka kwa anthu aku Iraq patangotha โโโโmwezi umodzi kuchokera pomwe asitikali aku US adatsogozedwa ndi zoopsa za Hobbesian. Dodge akuti pakati pa 20000 ndi 120000 akuluakulu komanso akuluakulu apakati ku Iraq anachotsedwa ntchito m'boma lokha. Akadakhala mphamvu yomwe ingathe kubwezeretsa mtendere pakati pa chipwirikiti ndi ziwawa. Dodge adalemba kuti mautumiki 17 mwa 23 a Baghdad adawonongeka, adalandidwa zinthu zonse zonyamulika monga makompyuta, mipando ndi zoyikamo - zonse mkati mwa milungu itatu. Panalibe asitikali aku America okwanira kuti aletse.
Bremer's Order Number 2 idachotsa mabungwe ofunikira kwambiri aboma ndi omwe ali pansi pake monga maunduna aboma, asitikali aku Iraq ndi mabungwe ankhondo, Nyumba Yamalamulo, makhothi ndi mabungwe azadzidzidzi. Kukonzekera ndi njira zina zotengera ntchito za mabungwewa kunali kofunika m'dziko la anthu 30 miliyoni. Malamulo awiri a Bremer adasiya malo omwe adadzazidwa mwachangu ndi osewera atsopano achiwawa.
Ndikufuna kufotokoza mwachidule za mkangano wina - nkhondo ya Afghan - kuyambira 1970s. Zimagwiranso ntchito ku Iraq. Afghanistan ikufanana kwambiri ndi mikangano ina ku Palestine, Yemen ndi kwina. Mikangano iyi imatha kuwoneka m'magawo anayi osiyana koma opitilira muyeso, nthawi zambiri panthawi imodzi. Umu ndi momwe.
Gawo 1: mikangano yamkati. Ku Afghanistan, mikangano yamkati ndi mbiri yakale. Kuti zikhale zosavuta, tiyeni tiyambire ku 'zaka khumi za ufulu wadziko ndi zamakono' mu 1960s. Mkanganowu udakula pambuyo pa kugwetsedwa kwa ufumuwo mu 1973 - komanso pambuyo pa kulanda kwa 1978 kwa asitikali achichepere omwe amayang'ana ku Soviet, omwe amawopa kuti Purezidenti Daud akutengera dzikolo kufupi kwambiri ndi United States.
Gawo 2: kuchuluka kwamphamvu kwamphamvu. Kulowererapo kwakunja kumawonjezera chipwirikiti, ndikusokoneza kukhazikika kwamphamvu kwanuko. Izi, zimakopa mphamvu zambiri zakunja, mpaka zitayamba kulamula kukula ndi zochitika. Koma kusavomerezeka kwawo pakati pa osewera am'deralo, komanso kukana kogwira mtima kwa magulu am'deralo, kumalepheretsa kupanga ndi kugwira ntchito kwa mabungwe.
Gawo 3: Kuwonongeka kwa boma. Ku Afghanistan, kufa kwa boma kunali kochedwa, kutenga zaka zoposa makumi awiri. Ku Iraq, nayenso, poganizira zotsatira za chilango ndi kudzipatula, tikukamba za zaka zoposa khumi. Pambuyo pa kugonjetsedwa kwa Saddam Hussein, kugunda komaliza kunabwera mofulumira.
Gawo 4: kusayanjanitsika kwakunja ndi kuwuka kwa zinthu monyanyira. Ndimakumbukira zaka khumi za 1990s komanso kuwuka kwa a Taliban ku Afghanistan. Dziko la Soviet linali litagonjetsedwa ndipo linali litagawanika. Kwa United States, yotopa komanso yotanganidwa ndi kufulumira kuwongolera kuwonongeka kwa Soviet Union, makamaka zida zake zanyukiliya, Afghanistan sinali yofunika kwambiri.
Pali phunziro lofunika kuliphunzira. Nkhondo yotalika imayambitsa kutopa ndi kusayanjanitsika pakati pa olowa kunja. Chikhalidwe chachiwawa chimakhwima. Zoyembekeza kumbali zonse zimasinthidwa ndipo chiwawa chimakhala njira yamoyo. Osewera omwe amasiyidwa amakhala ndi chizolowezi chokakamiza. Ndipo nzika zimabwera kudzayembekezera njira zothetsera chiwawa. Kuti mphamvu zochepa zolowererapo zimvetse phunziro ili ndi zomvetsa chisoni.
Pakalipano tili ndi kusakanikirana kwa dongosolo la McChrystal la kupha asilikali ndi kumenyana ndi zigawenga ndi chikhumbo cha Purezidenti Obama kuti ayambe kutsitsa magulu ankhondo pakati pa 2011. Cholinga chake chikuyendetsedwa ndi chisankho cha pulezidenti wa 2012 ku America. Ndipo zimatengera kulembedwa ntchito, kuphunzitsidwa komanso kutsimikizika kotsimikizika kwa gulu lankhondo lamphamvu la 300000 la Afghanistan.
Komabe, mbiri imasonyeza kuti kukhulupirika kwa asilikali a Afghanistan n'kovuta kukwaniritsa. Zowona zamafuko pakati pa akuluakulu a Pastun ndi asitikali apamwamba - komanso kusakhulupirira a Pashtuns pakati pa omwe si a Pastun - sizingalakwe. Zingafune kuti m'badwo usinthe chikhalidwe cha magulu ankhondo ndi dziko ngakhale United States ndi ogwirizana nawo anali ndi chifuniro. Popanda chifuniro chimenecho, ndili ndi mantha. Ali -
1. Purezidenti Obama akangoyamba kutsitsa magulu ankhondo pakati pa 2011, kusintha mphamvu, kapena chiyembekezo chayandikira, kusintha kwakukulu kwa kukhulupirika kudzachitika m'gulu lankhondo la Afghanistan. Izi zachitika kale ndipo zikhoza kuchitikanso.
2. Boma la Karzai silingathe kukhala ndi moyo ngati asilikali agawanika mogwirizana ndi mafuko ndi mafuko. Asitikali ankhondo aku Afghanistan ndi apolisi alibe mgwirizano kale.
3. Afghanistan ili ndi zida zambiri. Mfuti zomwe zidatsanulidwa m'dzikolo, ndi cholinga chabwino kwambiri chokonzekeretsa asilikali, zikanagwera m'manja olakwika. Ndipo sindikunenanso za kuchuluka kwa zochitika za ISI yaku Pakistan ndi osewera ena amchigawo.
Zonsezi ndi zosakaniza za chikhalidwe cha chilengedwe kachiwiri.
Yankho ndi ntchito ya nthawi yayitali yachigawo, yotsogoleredwa koma osalamulidwa ndi United States, kuphatikizapo Iran, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, China ndi India; ndi ndondomeko yadala yochotsa asilikali, ngakhale zovuta komanso zowawa. Mkati, mtundu wa demokalase yamafuko, kunja kwa Kabul ndi mizinda ina yayikulu, ndizomwe tingayembekezere.
Koma ubale womwe ulipo pakati pa America ndi China, Iran ndi Russia sugwirizana ndi chiyembekezo chotere. Mikangano yakula ndi Pakistan ndi Turkey. Ndipo ndikudziwa kuti pali kusatsimikizika, kapena kusakhala ndi chisangalalo chenicheni, pazotsatira za kayendetsedwe ka Obama kwina kulikonse mderali. Izi zimapangitsa kuti mgwirizano ukhale wovuta kwambiri. Njira yamakono ku Afghanistan ikugogomezera kwambiri njira zankhondo. Ndipo sizikuyamikira mokwanira momwe kukhalapo kwa asirikali aku Afghan kuli kosayenera, kovutitsa, komanso kwachilendo. Malingaliro amapitilira a Taliban.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama