Kugunda kwa ndege ku Israeli kumpoto kwa Syria koyambirira kwa mwezi uno kuyenera kumveka malinga ndi zomwe zidachitika kuyambira pomwe zidachitika chilimwe chatha ku Lebanon yoyandikana nayo. Ngakhale kuti mphekesera zambiri zanenedwa za zomwe zinachitika, gulu lina lolosera zam'tsogolo, Stratfor, linanenabe kuti: 'Chinthu chofunika kwambiri chinachitika.'
Kuchokera kutayikira mpaka pano, zikuwoneka kuti ndege zopitilira theka la Israeli zidaphwanya mlengalenga waku Syria kuti zigwetse zida pamalo omwe ali pafupi ndi malire ndi Turkey. Tikudziwanso kuchokera ku US media kuti 'chinachake' chinachitika mogwirizana ndi White House. Koma kodi cholinga ndi tanthauzo la chiwembucho chinali chiyani?
Ndikoyenera kukumbukira kuti, pambuyo pa nkhondo ya mwezi umodzi ya Israeli yolimbana ndi Lebanon chaka chapitacho, katswiri wina wotchuka wa ku America, Meyrav Wurmser, mkazi wa mlangizi wa Pulezidenti Dick Cheney yemwe adangochoka kumene ku Middle East, anafotokoza kuti nkhondoyo idapitirira chifukwa. White House idachedwa kukhazikitsa kuyimitsa moto. Aneocons, adati, akufuna kupatsa Israeli nthawi ndi malo kuti awonjezere kuwukira ku Damasiko.
Lingaliro linali losavuta: kuukira kwa Iran kusanachitike, Hizbullah ku Lebanon idayenera kuwonongedwa ndipo Syria idayenera kuphedwa. Dongosololi linali loti adzipatula Tehran pazigawo zina ziwiri zankhanzazi asanalowe kukapha.
Koma poyang'anizana ndi kuphulika kwa rocket kosalekeza kuchokera ku Hizbullah chilimwe chatha, mphamvu za Israeli pagulu ndi zankhondo zidasokonekera poyambira. M'malo mwake Israeli ndi US adakakamizika kukhazikika pachigamulo cha Security Council m'malo mopambana nkhondo motsimikizika.
Zomwe zidachitika posachedwa pakuwukira komwe zidalephera kunali kuchepa kwamphamvu kwa neocon. Dongosolo la gulu la 'chiwonongeko chachilengedwe' ku Middle East - kulimbikitsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni komanso kugawa mayiko akuluakulu omwe akuwopseza Israeli - anali pachiwopsezo chotsekeredwa.
M'malo mwake a 'pragmatists' mu Bush Administration, motsogozedwa ndi Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ndi Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, adafuna kusintha. Kusamvanaku kudafika pachimake kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2006 pomwe woyendetsa mafuta a James Baker ndi gulu lake la Iraq Study Group adayamba kukakamiza kuti achoke ku Iraq pang'onopang'ono - mwina kokha pambuyo poti wolamulira wankhanza, wodalirikayo, atakhazikitsidwanso ku Baghdad. Zinkawoneka ngati tsiku la neocons padzuwa ladutsa.
Utsogoleri wa Israyeli unamvetsetsa kuopsa kwa nthawiyo. Mu Januwale 2007 msonkhano wa Herzliya, chikondwerero chapachaka chopanga njira, udayitanitsa osachepera 40 Washington-opanga malingaliro kuti agwirizane ndi gulu lanthawi zonse la ndale za Israeli, akazembe, atolankhani ndi ophunzira. Kwa sabata imodzi nthumwi za Israeli ndi America zidalankhula limodzi: Iran ndi omwe akuganiziridwa kuti adayimirira, Hizbullah, adafunitsitsa kuwononga fuko la Israeli. Kupanga kwa Tehran pulogalamu ya nyukiliya - kaya kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa anthu wamba, monga Iran akutsutsa, kapena kugwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo, monga momwe US ndi Israeli akunenera - ziyenera kuyimitsidwa zivute zitani.
Pomwe White House idakhala chete mwakachetechete nthawi yonse yachilimwe ndi chilimwe pazomwe ikukonzekera, mphekesera zoti Israeli akuganizira zomenyera yekha ku Iran zidakulirakulira pofika tsiku. Akuluakulu akale a Mossad anachenjeza za nkhondo yachitatu yapadziko lonse yomwe ingalephereke, anzeru zankhondo zaku Israeli adalangiza kuti Iran idatsala miyezi ingapo kuti isabwererenso kupanga zida zanyukiliya, kutulutsa kodziwika bwino pamawailesi achifundo kunawonetsa kuphulitsa bomba ku Gibraltar, ndipo Israeli adayamba kukwera. kukakamiza Ayuda masauzande angapo ku Tehran kuti athawe m'nyumba zawo ndikubwera ku Israeli.
Ngakhale akatswiri aku Western adanena kuti kuukira kwa Iran sikukukayikiridwa, oyandikana nawo a Israeli adayang'ana mwamantha theka loyambirira la chaka pomwe malingaliro osamveka bwino a nkhondo yachigawo adawonekera kwambiri. Makamaka Syria, ataona kamvuluvulu wankhanza zomwe zidachitika ku Lebanon chilimwe chathachi, adawopa kuti ndiye potsatira kampeni ya US-Israel yothetsa maukonde a Tehran amgwirizano wachigawo. Idazindikira, mwina molondola, kuti US kapena Israeli sangayerekeze kuukira Iran popanda kuwononga Hizbullah ndi Damasiko.
Kwa nthawi yayitali Syria idasiyidwa mosakayikira za ku Washington. Idalephera kuthetsa udindo wake mu nthawi ya 9/11, ngakhale idathandizira CIA ndi luntha pa al-Qaeda ndikuyesa mwachinsinsi kukhazikitsa mtendere ndi Israeli chifukwa cha zilonda za Golan Heights. Icho chinakanidwa pa mbali iliyonse.
Chotero pamene mitambo yankhondo inakulirakulira m’ngululu, Suriya analabadira monga momwe akanayembekezera. Inapita kumsika wa zida zankhondo ku Moscow ndikugula zida zankhondo zolimbana ndi ndege komanso zida zankhondo zamtundu wa Hizbullah chilimwe chatha zinali zogwira mtima poletsa kuukira kwa Israeli kumwera kwa Lebanon.
Monga wolemba mbiri wotchuka wankhondo waku Israeli a Martin van Creveld adavomereza monyinyirika koyambirira kwa chaka chino, mfundo za US zidakakamiza Damasiko kukhalabe m'malo osagwirizana ndi Iran: 'Purezidenti wa Syria Bashar al-Assad akupeza kuti amadalira mnzake waku Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, kuposa momwe angachitire. monga.'
Israeli, osasowa mwayi woyimitsira mwadala khalidwe la mdani, wotchedwa asilikali a Syria akumanga umboni wa chilakolako cha Damasiko. Zikuoneka kuti poopa kuti Syria ikhoza kuyambitsa nkhondo polakwitsa zizindikiro zochokera ku Israeli monga umboni wa zolinga zaukali, nduna yaikulu ya Israeli, Ehud Olmert, adalimbikitsa Syria kuti ipewe 'kulakwitsa'. Anthu aku Israeli adakhala nthawi yachilimwe akukonzekera kubwereza koopsa kwa nkhondo yachilimwe yatha kumalire akumpoto.
Inali panthawiyi - ndi mikangano yotentha kwambiri - pamene Israeli adayambitsa nkhondo yake, kutumiza ndege zingapo zankhondo ku Syria pa ntchito yamphezi kuti igunde pafupi ndi Dayr a-Zawr. Pamene Syria mwiniwakeyo adalengeza za chiwembuchi, akazembe ankhondo aku Israeli adawonetsedwa pa TV toast mchaka chatsopano chachiyuda koma adakana kuyankhapo.
Zambiri zakhala zoonda kwambiri kuyambira nthawi imeneyo: Israel idakhazikitsa lamulo loletsa nkhani zomwe zakhala zikukakamizidwa ndi oyang'anira ankhondo mdzikolo. M'malo mwake zasiyidwa kwa atolankhani aku Western kuti azilingalira zomwe zidachitika.
Mfundo imodzi yomwe palibe akatswiri ndi akatswiri omwe adawonapo kuti, poukira Syria, Israeli adachita chipongwe chotsutsana ndi mnansi wake wakumpoto wamtundu womwe adanenedwa kuti ndi "mlandu waukulu wapadziko lonse" ndi bwalo lamilandu lankhondo ku Nuremberg.
Komanso, palibe amene anasonyeza zoonekeratu muyezo wapawiri ntchito pa kuukira kwa Israeli pa Syria poyerekeza ndi kuphwanya kwakukulu kwambiri kwa ulamuliro wa Israeli ndi Hizbullah chaka chapitacho, pamene gulu lankhondo la Shia linagwira asilikali awiri a Israeli pamalire ndi kupha ena atatu. Mchitidwe wa Hizbullah unavomerezedwa ndi anthu ambiri ngati kulungamitsa kuphulitsidwa ndi kuwonongedwa kwa dziko lonse la Lebanon, ngakhale kuti anthu ochepa omvera adadandaula ngati yankho la Israeli linali 'lopanda malire'. Kodi othirira ndemanga awa tsopano angavomereze kubwezera kofananako ndi Syria?
Funsoli mosakayikira linkawoneka ngati losafunika chifukwa zinali zoonekeratu kuchokera kumayiko akumadzulo kuti palibe aliyense - kuphatikizapo utsogoleri wa Israeli - amakhulupirira kuti Syria inali yokhoza kuyankha nkhondo ku Israeli. Kuopa kwa Olmert pa 'kuwerengetsa molakwika' kwa ku Suriya kunasintha pamene Israeli anachita masamu ku Damasiko.
Ndiye kodi Israyeli anayembekezera kupindula chiyani ndi kugunda kwake kwa ndege?
Nkhani zomwe zikutuluka m'ma TV aku America omwe ali ndi vuto locheperako zikuwonetsa zochitika ziwiri. Choyamba ndi chakuti Israeli analunjika katundu wa Iran omwe amadutsa ku Syria popita ku Hizbullah; yachiwiri yomwe Israeli idagunda pafakitale yatsopano yanyukiliya yaku Syria komwe zida zochokera ku North Korea zidatsitsidwa, mwina ngati gawo la mgwirizano wa zida zanyukiliya za Damasiko ndi Tehran.
(Kuyerekeza kuti Israeli akuyesa chitetezo cha ndege ku Syria pokonzekera kuukira Iran akunyalanyaza mfundo yakuti gulu lankhondo la Israeli lingasankhe njira yowulukira kudzera mumlengalenga wa Jordanian.)
Kodi zochitika ziwirizi ndi zodalirika bwanji?
Zonena za nyukiliya zotsutsana ndi Damasiko zidatsitsidwa mwachangu ndi akatswiri amderali kotero kuti Washington posakhalitsa idachepetsa mlanduwo ponena kuti Syria imangobisa zinthuzo m'malo mwa North Korea. Koma ndi chifukwa chiyani Syria, yomwe idasakidwa kale ndi Israeli ndi US, ipereka chifukwa chokonzekera choterechi kuti chisawachitire nkhanza? Chifukwa chiyani, momwemonso, North Korea ingasokoneze mgwirizano wake wopeza zida ndi US? Ndipo bwanji, ngati Syria ikuchita mobisa zanyukiliya, idachenjeza dziko lapansi powulula kumenyedwa kwa ndege ku Israeli?
Kulungamitsidwa kwina kwachiwembuku kudakhazikitsidwa pachowonadi chodalirika: Damasiko, Hizbullah ndi Iran mosakayikira amagawana zida zankhondo. Koma mgwirizano wawo uyenera kuwonedwa ngati mtundu wa mgwirizano wodzitchinjiriza womwe ukufunikira kwa anthu omwe ali pachiwopsezo m'dera lolamulidwa ndi Sunni komwe US ikufuna kuwongolera mafuta a Gulf ndikuthandizira maboma opondereza okhawo omwe amagwirizana pazolinga zake. Onse atatu akudziwa bwino lomwe kuti ndi ntchito ya Israeli kuwopseza ndi kulanga maulamuliro aliwonse omwe akulephera kutsatira.
Mosiyana ndi kuganiza kupangidwa ku West, kudana fuko la Israeli ndi Ayuda, komabe nthawi zambiri zolankhula za Ahmadinejad zimatanthauziridwa molakwika, si injini ya mgwirizano wa mayiko awa.
Komabe, tanthauzo la ndale pazifukwa za kuwukira kwa ndege ku Israeli ndikuti onse amangirira pamodzi mikangano yosiyanasiyana yomwe ikufunika ndi neocons ndi Israeli popereka mlandu wawo woukira Iran Bush asanachoke paudindo koyambirira kwa 2009. Zikuonetsa kuti Shia 'axis of evil', yolumikizidwa ndi Iran, yomwe ikukonzekera chiwembu chowononga Israeli. Ndipo nkhani iliyonse imapereka chifukwa chowukira Syria ngati chiwombankhanga chomenyera nkhondo Tehran - yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ndi Washington kapena Tel Aviv - kupulumutsa Israeli.
Kuti nkhanizi zikuwoneka kuti zidabzalidwa m'manyuzipepala aku America ndi akatswiri a neocon of spin monga John Bolton akuchenjeza mokwanira - monganso kuvomereza kuti umboni wokha wa nkhanza za ku Syria ndi 'luntha' la Israeli, maziko ake omwe sangathe kufunsidwa ngati Israeli. sikuvomereza mwalamulo kuukira.
Sitiyenera kunena kuti tilinso mu holo yamagalasi, monga momwe tinalili panthawi yomwe America idaukira Iraq ku Iraq ndipo takhala tikugwira ntchito motsatira.
Bush "nkhondo yolimbana ndi zigawenga" poyambilira idalungamitsidwa ndi maulalo osavuta komanso opangidwa pakati pa Iraq ndi al-Qaeda, komanso, ma WMD awo omwe, pambuyo pake zidapezeka, adawonongedwa zaka zopitilira khumi m'mbuyomo. Koma kuyambira nthawi zonse Tehran wakhala chandamale chachikulu pazakudya zosatheka izi.
Panali zolemba zabodza zotsimikizira kuti Iraq idatenga uranium wolemera kuchokera ku Niger kuti apange zida zanyukiliya komanso kuti ikugawana nzeru zake ndi Iran. Ndipo pamene Iraq idagwa, okhulupirira a neocon ngati Michael Ledeen sanachedwe kufalitsa mphekesera kuti zida zanyukiliya zomwe zidasoweka zitha kuwerengedwabe: Othandizira aku Iran adangowazembetsa kuchokera ku Iraq panthawi yachisokonezo chakuukira kwa US.
Kuyambira pamenepo ma media athu atsimikizira kuti alibe chidwi ndi nkhani zopanda pake ngati izi. Ngati kukhudzidwa kwa Iran poyambitsa zigawenga za Shia ku Iraq kuti zigonjetse dziko la US ndizotheka, zomwezo sizinganenedwenso ndi zomwe White House imanena kuti Tehran ndi yomwe ikuyambitsa zigawenga zotsogozedwa ndi Sunni ku Iraq ndi Afghanistan. Miyezi ingapo yapitayo atolankhani adatulutsa "maumboni" oti dziko la Iran likuchita chiwembu mwachinsinsi ndi gulu lankhondo la al-Qaeda ndi gulu lankhondo la Sunni la Iraq kuti lichotse olanda a US.
Ndiye kodi kutsutsana kosalekeza kotsutsana ndi Tehran kumagwira ntchito yanji?
Zotsutsa zaposachedwa ziyenera kuwonedwa ngati chitsanzo cha Israeli ndi ma neocons 'akudzipangira okha zenizeni', monga mlangizi wina wa Bush adawonera modziwika bwino za neocon filosofi yamphamvu. Pamene Hizbullah, Syria ndi Iran akuopsezedwa ndi Israeli, m'pamenenso amakakamizika kusonkhana pamodzi ndikuchita njira zodzitetezera - monga kunyamula zida - zomwe zingathe kuwonetsedwa ngati chiwopsezo cha 'kupha' kwa Israeli ndi dongosolo ladziko lonse.
Van Creveld nthawi ina adawona kuti Tehran idzakhala 'yopenga' kuti isapange zida za nyukiliya potengera njira yodziwika bwino ya machenjerero a Israeli ndi US kuti agwetse boma. Momwemonso Syria silingakwanitse kusokoneza mgwirizano wake ndi Iran kapena kukhudzidwa kwake ndi Hizbullah. M'zochitika zamakono, maulumikizi awa ndi mphamvu yokhayo yomwe ili nayo kuti athetse kuukira kapena kukakamiza US ndi Israeli kuti akambirane.
Koma iwonso ndi umboni wofunikira ndi Israeli ndi neocons kuti atsutse Syria ndi Iran m'bwalo lamilandu la Washington. Kuwukira kwa Syria ndi gawo la mkangano wanzeru, womwe udapangidwa kuti ugonjetse kapena kulambalala okayikira mu Bush Administration, potsimikizira kulakwa kwa Syria ndikuwapangitsa kuti ayankhe.
Condoleezza Rice, adawonekera kumapeto kwa sabata, akufuna kuitana Syria kuti adzakhale nawo pamsonkhano wamtendere wachigawo womwe wayitanidwa ndi Purezidenti Bush mu Novembala. Sipangakhale kukayikira kuti kuchitapo kanthu kotereku kumatsutsidwa kwambiri ndi Israeli ndi neocons. Ikusinthanso njira yawo yophatikizira Damasiko mu 'Shia arc of extremism' ndikutsegulira njira yakuukira komwe akufuna: Iran.
Syria, pakadali pano, ikumenyananso, monga momwe zakhalira kwa nthawi ndithu, ndi njira yokhayo yomwe ilipo: zokhumudwitsa. Kwa zaka ziwiri Bashar al-Assad wakhala akupereka mgwirizano wamtendere wowolowa manja ku Israeli pa Golan Heights womwe Tel Aviv yakana kuuganizira. Sabata ino, Syria idachitanso zina zamtendere ndikupereka gawo lina la Israeli, Mafamu a Shebaa. Pansi pa ndondomekoyi, Mafamu - omwe bungwe la United Nations tsopano likuvomereza kuti ndi a Lebanon, koma omwe Israeli akunenabe kuti ndi a Syria ndipo sangathe kubwezeredwa mpaka patakhala mgwirizano pa Golan Heights - adzasamutsidwa ku UN mpaka mkangano wokhudza ulamuliro wake. zitha kuthetsedwa.
Zikadakhala kuti zina mwa zoyesayesa za Damasiko zikanatsatiridwa, chigawocho chikanayembekezera nyengo ya bata ndi chitetezo. Ichi ndi chifukwa chokwanira chomwe Israeli ndi neocons amatsutsidwa kwambiri. M'malo mwake ayenera kukhazikitsa chowonadi chatsopano - momwe mphamvu za 'chiwonongeko chachilengedwe' okondedwa a neocons afalikira m'derali. Kwa ife tonse, mawu osavuta amakwanira. Zomwe zikugulitsidwa ndi tsoka.
Jonathan Cook ndi mtolankhani komanso wolemba yemwe amakhala ku Nazareti, Israel. Iye ndi mlembi wa 'Magazi ndi Chipembedzo: The Unmasking of the Jewish and Democratic State' (Pluto Press). Buku lake lomwe likubwera ndi 'Israel and the Clash of Civilizations: Iraq, Iran and the Plan to Remake the Middle East'. Webusaiti yake ndi www.jkcook.net
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