IAmagi za zionetsero zodziwika bwino zomwe zimakumbukira za kusintha kwa 2011 zakhala zikufala m'maiko olankhula Chiarabu kwa miyezi ingapo. Zipolowe zidayamba ku Sudan pa 19 Disembala komanso ku Algeria ndi maulendo a Lachisanu 22 February. Iwo adatsitsimutsa kukumbukira ziwonetsero zazikulu, zamtendere kumayambiriro kwa Arab Spring zomwe zidagwedeza Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya ndi Syria.
Othirira ndemanga akhala osamala nthawi ino, akufunsa mafunso m'malo mopereka ndemanga mwachindunji, pokumbukira kukhumudwa kowawa komwe kunatsatira chisangalalo chawo choyambirira pa Arab Spring. Kuponderezedwa kwa zipolowe za 2011 ku Bahrain, zomwe zinaphwanyidwa patangopita milungu ingapo mothandizidwa ndi mafumu ena a mafuta a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), zikadakhala zosiyana, chifukwa cha makhalidwe apadera a kalabu ya mayiko. Koma patatha zaka ziwiri derali lidalowa gawo lotsutsana ndi kusintha, ndikusintha kwatsopano komwe kumapita kwina.
Bashar al-Assad adayambitsa zigawenga zatsopano ku Syria mchaka cha 2013 mothandizidwa ndi Iran ndi ogwirizana nawo. Kenako kunadza kukhazikitsidwa kochirikizidwa ndi ankhondo kwa ulamuliro wopondereza ku Egypt, ndi kubwerera ku mphamvu kwa mamembala a boma lothamangitsidwa la Tunisia; ku Cairo ndi Tunis, magulu ankhondo ogwirizana ndi gulu la Muslim Brotherhood adalanda zomwe zidayambitsa kusintha. Polimbikitsidwa ndi zomwe zachitika mu 2013, otsalira a maulamuliro akale ku Libya ndi Yemen adapanga mgwirizano wopezera mwayi ndi magulu omwe adalumphira pagulu lachisinthiko ndikugawana chidani chawo ndi Muslim Brotherhood. Kuyesetsa kwawo kulanda ulamuliro mokakamiza kunathera pa nkhondo yapachiweniweni. Chidwi chidakhala chodekha mu 'Arab Winter' pomwe gulu lachigawenga la ISIS lidayamba kukhazikika.
Ngakhale avatar yaposachedwa kwambiri ya Al-Qaida pomaliza pake idaphwanyidwa ku Iraq ndi Syria (magulu omwe akugwira ntchito molingana ndi chilolezocho amakhalabe okangalika ku Libya, chilumba cha Sinai komanso kunja kwa dziko lolankhula Chiarabu), magulu ena otsutsa adakali pampando. Banja la Assad likupitiliza kulandanso madera ambiri a Syria mothandizidwa ndi Russia ndi Iran. Ku Egypt, boma lachipongwe la Purezidenti Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, mosasamala za momwe zigawenga zingakhudzire zigawenga ku Sudan ndi Algeria, zavomereza kusintha kwa malamulo komwe kumamulola kuti akhalebe pampando mpaka 2030. (1).
Njira yosinthira nthawi yayitali
Ku Libya, wosilira a Sissi General Khalifa Haftar - mothandizidwa ndi Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia ndi France, posachedwapa omwe aphatikizidwa ndi US - kuyambira Epulo akhala akutsata zigawenga kumadzulo kuti alande dziko lonse. Haftar akufuna kuchotsa Boma la National Accord, lomwe limadziwika ndi UN, Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar ndi Turkey, ndipo likusokoneza mgwirizano wa UN kuti pakhale njira yatsopano, yophatikizapo ndale. Ku Yemen, nkhondo yapachiลตeniลตeni idakalipobe, zotsatira zake zimakhala zovuta kwambiri chifukwa cha kulowererapo kwa mgwirizano wotsogoleredwa ndi Saudi. Pali chiyembekezo chochepa cha mtendere wokhalitsa posachedwapa, kapena kugwirizananso kwa mayiko.
Zipandukozi zili ndi kulimbikitsana kofanana pamlingo wokulirapo komanso chiwonetsero chosangalatsa cha ziwonetsero, pamwambo wa zigawenga zazikulu zomwe zimayika 'malingaliro mumphamvu'.
Poganizira za kusinthaku, zipolowe ku Sudan ndi Algeria zikuwoneka ngati zocheperako ngati ma Arab Spring atsopano kusiyana ndi zipolowe zomwe zikuchitika mosiyanasiyana, zotsutsana. Iwo akhoza kukula ndi kufalikira, kapena kuimitsidwa mwankhanza; mulimonse momwe zingakhalire, zotsatira zake zidzakhudza kwambiri tsogolo la dera. Iwo atsimikizirabe kuti 2011 inali gawo loyamba chabe la ndondomeko yosinthira kwa nthawi yayitali. Mawu akuti Arab Spring akadali omveka, malinga ngati amveka ngati kusintha kwakanthawi kochepa, kwamtendere, monga momwe ambiri amayembekezera, koma ngati koyamba kwa demokalase. mndandanda za 'nyengo' zomwe zikhoza kupitirira kwa zaka, kapena zaka makumi angapo.
Vuto mu dziko la Aarabu silikusintha machitidwe a ndale kuti agwirizane ndi anthu ndi chuma chomwe chafika pa msinkhu, monga a Latin America kapena East Asia, kumene kusintha kwa ndale kumathetsa ndondomeko ya chikhalidwe cha anthu; mโmalo mwake, ikuchotsa machitidwe andale amene alepheretsa chitukuko cha anthu ndi zachuma kuyambira mโma 1980. Chizindikiro chachikulu ndi kusowa kwa ntchito kwa achinyamata, komwe derali lakhala likugwira ntchito padziko lonse lapansi (2).
Chuma chimafooka
Zochitika za 2011 zikanangopangitsa kuti pakhale nthawi yatsopano komanso yokhazikika yokhazikika ngati pakanakhalanso kusintha kwakukulu pazochitika zachuma; zinali zosatheka pamene machitidwe a boma omwe amayambitsa kusayenda bwino kwachuma anali adakalipo. Pakalibe kusintha kotereku, zionetserozo zidayenera kupitilirabe ngakhale kukula, popeza kusakhazikika komwe kudachitika ndi Arab Spring kungangowonjezera kufooka kwachuma. Ngakhale kutsutsa kusinthaku, mayiko angapo olankhula Chiarabu awona ziwonetsero zatsopano kuyambira 2011.
Tunisia nthawi zambiri imawonetsedwa ngati nkhani yopambana ya Arab Spring chifukwa idakwanitsa kulimbikira kupindula kwa demokalase. Ngakhale olemba ndemanga nthawi zambiri amalephera kuvomereza, amakonda kuyang'ana kwambiri kusiyana kwa 'chikhalidwe' (chifukwa cha kulimbikira kwa dziko la Tunisia kwa zaka 300 zapitazi), "kupatulapo ku Tunisia" kumagwirizana kwambiri ndi udindo wa UGTT (Tunisia). General Labor Union), gulu lokhalo la ogwira ntchito mdziko la Aarabu lomwe lili lodziyimira pawokha komanso lotsogola (3). Koma Tunisia yapitirizabe kugwedezeka ndi zionetsero, zam'deralo ndi zadziko, kuphatikizapo zomwe zili pakati pa mzinda wa Kasserine mu January 2016, ndi ziwonetsero zazikulu za January 2018. Maiko omwe awona magulu akuluakulu a chikhalidwe cha anthu kuyambira 2011 akuphatikizapo Morocco, makamaka ku Rif. dera kuyambira October 2016; Jordan, makamaka masika 2018; ndi Iraq, pakapita nthawi kuyambira 2015. Dziko la Sudan lakhala likuwonjezeka kangapo kuyambira 2011, kuphatikizapo mmodzi mu 2013, ataponderezedwa mwankhanza.
Zionetsero m'dziko lililonse zakhala zikuyang'ana kwambiri pa ulova komanso / kapena mtengo wamoyo. Mavutowa nthawi zambiri amaipiraipira chifukwa cha nkhanza za bungwe la International Monetary Fund, zomwe zasonyeza chikhulupiriro chosagwedezeka mโchikhulupiriro chawo chatsopanocho. Chikhulupiriro chake chimatsutsana ndi maphunziro a zochitika, kutsimikizira zoneneza zomwe zimalimbikitsidwa kwambiri ndi chikhumbo chofuna kuteteza zofuna za chuma kusiyana ndi pragmatic rationalism yomwe yalakwika. IMF yatsimikiza kuti kugonjetsedwa kwa dziko la Aarabu ndi chifukwa cholephera kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala ake ndi changu chokwanira, ngakhale kuti mankhwalawa ndi osayenerana ndi zochitika zachigawo.
Kukakamira kwa IMF pa kuchotsedwa kwa boma komanso gawo lalikulu lazachuma pazachitukuko (zomwe sizinawonetsedwepo kuti zikugwira ntchito) zathandizira kwambiri kugwa kwachuma m'derali. Kuyambira mchaka cha 2011 IMF yawonjezera kukakamiza maboma kuti atsatire mapulogalamu ake ochepetsa ndalama. Zotsatira zakhala zikuwonekera mwamsanga: pambali pa zochitika zomwe zatchulidwa kale, pakhala zionetsero ku Iran, komwe zifukwa zomwezo zachititsa kuti zikhale zofanana kuyambira December 2017, ngakhale kuti pali kusiyana pakati pa ndale za Iran ndi za oyandikana nawo achiarabu. Januware watha, ziwonetsero zotsutsana ndi njira zotsogozedwa ndi IMF zidagwedeza Iran, Sudan ndi Tunisia nthawi imodzi.
Sizinangochitika mwangozi kuti boma lokhalo lomwe lingathe kukakamiza malamulo onse a IMF lakhala likulamulira Sissi. Mwa 'mankhwala owopsa' omwe adagwiritsidwa ntchito kuyambira Novembala 2016, Aigupto mpaka pano adakumana ndi gawo lodabwitsali. Mosiyana ndi anthu ena a mโderali, iwo sanauke. Kutopa kwawo kumabwera chifukwa cha kuponderezedwa kwa boma, komanso kusiya ntchito chifukwa zaka zitatu za chipwirikiti (2011-13) zidangoyambitsa kukhazikitsidwa kwa boma lomwe limawapangitsa kuphonya nthawi ya Mubarak. (4). Kusiya ntchito uku kukukulirakulira chifukwa chosowa njira ina yodalirika.
Komabe Igupto sanavutike pachabe. Mayiko oyandikana nawo aphunzira kuchokera ku zochitika zake: adachenjezedwa zachinyengo zomwe Aigupto anali nazo pamene asilikali awo adachotsa Hosni Mubarak mu February 2011 ndikugonjetsa wosankhidwa wake wosankhidwa Mohamed Morsi, membala wa Muslim Brotherhood, mu July 2013. zikuwonekeratu kuti mphamvu zandale zikakhazikitsidwa pa usilikali, pulezidenti ndi gulu lake ndi nsonga chabe; gawo lomwe lili pansi pa madzi limapangidwa makamaka ndi chitetezo chankhondo - chomwe chimatchedwa 'deep state'.
Kugwiritsa ntchito boma ndi chuma
Zandale za mโmaiko olankhula Chiarabu nโzolamulidwa ndi magulu a anthu amene amadyera masuku pamutu boma ndi chuma chake. Iwo ali amitundu iwiri: mabanja omwe akulamulira pansi pa dongosolo la monarchic, kapena lomwe limadziwika kuti Republican koma limalola kugwidwa kwa boma, ndi chitetezo cha asilikali ndi akuluakulu omwe mamembala awo amapindula ndi chuma cha boma pansi pa dongosolo la neopatrimonial. Zotsatira zosiyana za zigawenga za 2011 zinatsimikiziridwa ndi kusiyana kwa mitundu iyi.
Mu 2011, mu Neopatrimonial Tunisia ndi Egypt, zida za boma zinafulumira kuchotsa gulu lolamulira, lomwe linali lochititsa manyazi. Mโmaboma a makolo olamulirawo mosazengereza anagwiritsira ntchito alonda awo a mfumu kuthetsa zipolowe ndi kukhetsa mwazi kochuluka. Libya ndi Syria zidalowa m'nkhondo zapachiweniweni, pomwe ku Bahrain kulowererapo kwa GCC kudalepheretsa gulu lodziwika kuti lisamamenye zida. Yemen idagwera m'gulu lapakati: kupanduka kwa 2011 kudathera m'makonzedwe ovuta kugawana mphamvu pamapeto pake zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale nkhondo.
Sitingadziwe motsimikiza kuti Russia idamva bwanji mu 1917 pomwe mfumuyi idagwetsedwa, kapena France mu 1871 m'masiku ovuta, anthawi yayitali a Paris Commune. Koma ziyenera kuti zidamveka ngati Khartoum mu Epulo 2019 David Pilling
Sudan ndi Algeria, monga Egypt, ali ndi maulamuliro okhala ndi msana wachitetezo chankhondo. Monga momwe zinalili ku Igupto, asilikali mโkupita kwa nthaลตi anayesa kusangalatsa anthu mwa kupereka nsembe pulezidenti. Asitikali aku Algeria adakakamiza Abdelaziz Bouteflika kuti atule pansi udindo wake pa Epulo 2, ndipo gulu lankhondo la Sudan lidachotsedwa ndikusunga Omar al-Bashir pa 11 Epulo.
Zigawenga izi zinali zosasintha, monga zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa ndi asitikali aku Egypt mu February 2011, pomwe adalengeza 'kusiya' kwa Mubarak: gulu lankhondo linapereka nsembe nsonga ya madzi oundana kuti asunge gawo lomwe lili pansi pake. Monga ku Egypt, asitikali ankhondo aku Algeria ndi Sudan adapereka nsembe abwenzi awo apamtima omwe adachotsedwa paudindo komanso anthu ndi mabungwe omwe adasiya kuchita nkhanza komanso kugwiritsa ntchito molakwika maboma oipidwa. Koma m'mayiko onsewa, mayendedwe otchuka, kuphunzira kuchokera ku Aigupto (komanso kuchokera ku zochitika zakale ku Sudan), sizinagwere mumsampha. Iwo amalimbikira kufuna kutha kwa ulamuliro wankhondo wa mphamvu zandale, ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa boma losakhala wamba ndi lademokalase.
'Imagination in power'
Zipanduko zatsopanozi zili ndi kulimbikitsana kofanana pamlingo waukulu komanso mawu osangalatsa otsutsa, mwamwambo wa zigawenga zazikulu zomwe zimayika 'malingaliro mu mphamvu'. (5). Amagawananso chidziwitso kuti akulimbana ndi ulamuliro wopangidwa mozungulira usilikali; kulamulira kwapamwamba kwa omaliza sikungayembekezere kuwachotsa ku boma. Ku Algeria ndi ku Sudan, utsogoleri wapamwamba umadziwonetsa ngati wotsogola wakusintha kwachisinthiko komwe anthu amalakalaka, monga gulu la Gamal Abdel Nasser's Free Officers ku Egypt mu 1952, kapena Gulu Lankhondo Lankhondo ku Portugal mu 1974 (milandu yonse ya maofesala achichepere. kupandukira ulamuliro wawo); koma izi sizinapusitse ambiri.
Kupanduka kwa chaka chino kumasiyana m'njira imodzi yofunika: chikhalidwe cha utsogoleri wawo. Iyi ndi nkhani yofunika kwambiri: kulephera kwa zigawenga zambiri za 2011, ndi kupambana pang'ono kwa yekhayo amene phindu la demokalase lasungidwa, ali ndi kufotokozera komweku. Arab Spring ankatchedwa post-modern chifukwa ankawoneka kuti alibe atsogoleri. Koma palibe gulu lotchuka lomwe lingakhale pansi pa mikhalidwe yoteroyo; ngakhale iwo amene amangobwera mwangozi ayenera kukhala ndi atsogoleri kuti apitirize.
Ku Tunisia, mabungwe a bungwe la UGTT adathandizira kwambiri kukulitsa zipolowe m'dziko lonse ndikugonjetsa wolamulira wankhanza mu January 2011. Ku Egypt, gulu la ndale zotsutsa zandale zinayambitsa zigawengazo ndipo zinakhala utsogoleri mpaka Mubarak atachoka. Ku Bahrain, mamembala otsutsa ndale ndi mabungwe a zamalonda anali patsogolo. Ku Yemen, magulu ena aboma adapanga mgwirizano ndi otsutsa ndale kuti agwiritse ntchito mwayiwu, zomwe zidawononga achinyamata oukira boma omwe anali omwe adayambitsa.
Ku Libya, kusokonekera kwachangu kwa zipolowezo kukhala mikangano yankhondo kudapangitsa utsogoleri wa anthu otsutsa akale komanso atsopano, kuphatikiza omwe kale anali othandizira boma. Syria inali ndi nthawi yayitali kwambiri ya utsogoleri wopingasa (osati chinthu chofanana ndi kusowa kwa utsogoleri) ndi mapangidwe a 'makomiti ogwirizanitsa' olankhulana kudzera pa TV, mpaka Syrian National Council, yomwe inakhazikitsidwa ku Istanbul motsogoleredwa ndi Turkey ndi Qatar, yomwe inapatsidwa. palokha udindo wa mtsogoleri.
Turkey ndi Qatar adatha kubweretsa zipolowe zonse za 2011, kupatula Bahrain, pansi pa ulamuliro wawo kudzera mu thandizo la Muslim Brotherhood lomwe, ngakhale silinayambe kuyambitsa zigawenga, linafulumira kulowa nawo ndi kuwalanda. Ubale ndi ogwirizana nawo anali atakhazikika kale ku Egypt ndi Yemen. Adathamangitsidwa mobisa ku Libya, Tunisia ndi Syria, koma m'maiko amenewo anali ndi maukonde ambiri omwe amasangalala ndi zinthu komanso media (kudzera mu Al Jazeera) thandizo la Qatar, monganso nthambi zamalamulo kapena zamalamulo za Ubale m'maiko ena. .
Ubwino wa Muslim Brotherhood
Chifukwa cha kufooka kwakukulu kwa mabungwe otsutsa a kumanzere ndi omasuka (mwandale) m'mayiko olankhula Chiarabu, omwe sanalandire thandizo la boma lachilendo komanso kutopa ndi kuponderezedwa, mphamvu ya chigawo cha Muslim Brotherhood ndi magulu okhudzana nawo inafika pachimake mu 2011- 12. Ku Tunisia ndi Egypt adachita nawo zisankho zomwe zidakonzedwa pambuyo pakusintha kwakanthawi, kutenga mphamvu m'maiko onse awiri. Ulamuliro wachifumu waku Morocco udayesetsa kuletsa kukula kwa ziwonetsero zomwe zidayamba pa 22 February 2011 posankha nthambi ya Moroccan ya Ubale kukhala boma.
Chodabwitsa chokha chinali kugonjetsedwa kwa Muslim Brotherhood pa chisankho cha phungu wa July 2012 ku Libya, komwe kunatayika ku National Forces Alliance, mgwirizano womasuka wamagulu andale ndi mabungwe omwe siaboma omwe adatenga pafupifupi 50% ya mavoti onse (otsatira 61.6%), pafupifupi. kasanu kuposa Abale. Kugonjetsedwa kumeneku kunatsatira gawo loyamba la chisankho cha pulezidenti wa ku Egypt mu May, pomwe chiwerengero cha mavoti omwe adapambana omwe amaimira zipani za ufulu ndi zotsalira adapambana chiwerengero cha otsogolera oimira Ubale ndi ulamuliro wakale, ndipo anali oposa kuwirikiza kawiri. kuchuluka kwa mavoti omwe apambana ndi Morsi. Unali umboni winanso kuti, mosiyana ndi nzeru wamba zouziridwa ndi zakum'mawa - m'lingaliro la Edward Said (6) - Anthu olankhula Chiarabu sakopeka ndi chikhalidwe cha 'chisilamu chandale'.
Kuposa nkhani ya chikhalidwe, iyi ndi ndale ndi bungwe. Maulamuliro a demokalase, kuyambira aufulu (adziko ndi Asilamu) mpaka kumanzere, omwe amafotokoza zokhumba zambiri zamagulu odziwika, atsimikizira kuti sangathe kudzipanga okha kukhala migwirizano; ndipo sanathenso kudziwonetsera okha ngati njira zina m'misasa iwiri yotsutsa - ochirikiza maboma akale ndi otsutsana nawo achisilamu okhazikika. Tsoka ilo, m'dziko lililonse lomwe lidakhudzidwa ndi Arab Spring, magulu otsutsa omasuka komanso akumanzere adalakwitsa kugwirizana ndi msasa wina wotsutsana ndi wina, nthawi zina kusinthana mbali monga momwe chiwopsezo chachikulu chimasinthira, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti maguluwa asatengeke.
Mokulira, zipolowe zomwe zikuchitika ku Sudan ndi Algeria zili zotetezeka kuti zisatengedwe ndi achisilamu okhazikika. Izi zimalimbitsa mphamvu zawo zotsutsana ndi machitidwe a asilikali: Ubale unali wothandizana ndi asilikali ku Egypt kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2011. Ku Algeria, zomwe zinachitikira 'zaka khumi zakuda' - nkhondo yamagazi pakati pa chitetezo cha asilikali ndi chitetezo. Otsatira maziko a Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) ndi mphukira zake pambuyo pa kulanda kwa Januware 1992 - apangitsa anthu kukayikira zonse ziwiri. Nthambi ya ku Algeria ya Muslim Brotherhood inagwirizana ndi asilikali, inathandiza Bouteflika ndipo inakhala nawo mu boma kwa zaka zambiri. Atsogoleri ambiri a zionetsero zomwe zidayamba mu February uno angatsutse zoyesayesa zilizonse za okhulupirira kuti atenge utsogoleri wa gululi mwamphamvu kapena mwamphamvu kuposa momwe amakana zomwe akuluakulu ankhondo anena kuti aziyimira zokhumba zawo.
Ku Sudan, kutsutsa kodziwika kwa misasa yonse iwiri yotsutsana ndizovuta kwambiri chifukwa adagawana mphamvu kuyambira pomwe Omar al-Bashir adalanda boma mu 1989. Monga mutu wa utsogoleri wankhanza wankhondo wogwirizana ndi Muslim Brotherhood (ubale sunayende bwino nthawi zonse), Bashir anali ngati chisakanizo cha Morsi ndi Sissi. (7). Chofunikira kwambiri pa zipolowe za ku Sudan, zandale zandale kuposa zomwe zili mdziko lolankhula Chiarabu kuyambira 2011, ndikutsutsa kwake kwaulamuliro wa asitikali kapena ogwirizana nawo okhazikika, komanso chikhumbo chake chofuna kukhala wamba, wandale, wademokalase komanso wandale. ngakhale boma lachikazi.
Utsogoleri wa ndale
Izi zikugwirizana ndi chinthu china chomwe chimathandizira kuti gulu la Sudanese likhale lopambana: utsogoleri wake wapadera wandale. Gulu la ku Algeria ndi lochepa chifukwa cha kuchuluka komanso kukhazikika kwa bungwe lake, momwe magulu a ophunzira aku yunivesite amalumikizana kudzera pawailesi yakanema ndi magulu otsutsa andale omasuka komanso otsalira, komanso gulu la antchito ndi akatswiri, popanda gulu lomwe lingathe kudzinenera utsogoleri. Mosiyana ndi izi, palibe amene amatsutsa udindo womwe gulu la Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change (FDFC) limachita ku Sudan.
Mumgwirizanowu, womwe udapangidwa mozungulira chilengezo chomwe chidakhazikitsidwa pa Januware 1, Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA) ndi chapakati. SPA ndi bungwe la ambulera lomwe linapangidwa mobisa mu Okutobala 2016 ndi madotolo, atolankhani ndi maloya, omwe adalumikizidwa ndi aphunzitsi, mainjiniya, azamankhwala, akatswiri ojambula komanso posachedwa, ogwira ntchito kufakitale ndi ogwira ntchito ku njanji. FDFC imaphatikizanso zipani zotsutsa ndale kuyambira chipani cha National Umma, motsogozedwa ndi Sadiq al-Mahdi (wowolowa manja komanso wamkulu wa gulu la Sufi yemwe adakhalapo nduna yayikulu kawiri, mzaka za m'ma 1960 ndi 80s) kupita ku chipani cha Chikomyunizimu cha Sudanese, chipani chachikulu kwambiri cha chikomyunizimu chomwe chikugwirabe ntchito kudziko la Aarabu (ngakhale chidafookeratu kuyambira m'ma 1960) ndi magulu ankhondo amchigawo omwe amatsutsana ndi ulamuliro wa Bashir. Pali magulu awiri omenyera ufulu wa akazi, No to Oppression Against Women Initiative ndi Civilian and Political Feminist Groups, omwe chikoka chawo chikuwonekera bwino mu pulogalamu ya FDFC, yomwe ikuphatikiza kusungitsa mipando ya 40% ya amayi mumsonkhano wamalamulo womwe mgwirizano umafuna. (8).
M'dziko lililonse lomwe lidakhudzidwa ndi Arab Spring, magulu otsutsa omasuka komanso otsalira adalakwitsa kugwirizana ndi msasa umodzi wotsutsana ndi wina.
Ku Sudan, Financial Times Mtolankhani David Pilling amagwiritsa ntchito mafananidwe amtundu womwe nthawi zambiri umapezeka m'mawu akumanzere: "Ngakhale kuwukiraku kudachitika chifukwa chaukadaulo wazaka za zana la 21, ndi mphamvu yoyitanitsa ma foni a m'manja ndi ma hashtag, pali kusintha kosinthika kwa kayendetsedwe kake komwe kwachitika. zonse zadziko ndi syndicalist tinge. Sitingadziwe motsimikiza kuti Russia idamva bwanji mu 1917 pomwe mfumuyi idagwetsedwa, kapena France mu 1871 m'masiku ovuta, anthawi yayitali a Paris Commune. Koma ziyenera kuti zidamveka ngati Khartoum mu Epulo 2019' (9).
A FDFC akulimbana ndi akuluakulu a usilikali pa nkhani ya yemwe ayenera kulamulira dziko la Sudan panthawi ya kusintha, komanso kuti likhale litali bwanji. Mgwirizanowu ukupempha kuti pakhazikitsidwe bungwe lodziyimira pawokha, lomwe lingalamulire komanso asitikali azikhala ochepa, pomwe asitikali akulimbikira kuti akuyenera kupitiliza kulamulira. Zitha kuwoneka ngati zododometsa kuti mgwirizanowu ukufuna kuti nthawi yosinthira chisankho chisanachitike zaka zitatu, pomwe asitikali akufuna kuti ikhale yaifupi momwe angathere. Koma a FDFC aphunzira kuchokera ku zisankho zamalamulo, zamalamulo komanso zapurezidenti ku Tunisia ndi Egypt, zomwe zidachitika patangopita nthawi yochepa, kulimbikitsa kusamvana komwe kunagwira ntchito motsutsana ndi omwe akupita patsogolo. Iwo akufuna nthawi yomanga mabungwe atsopano kuti athandizire boma la anthu wamba, lademokalase, ladziko lomwe lidzakhala lopita patsogolo pankhani za chikhalidwe cha anthu ndi za amayi - monga momwe zafotokozedwera m'ndondomeko yawo yakusintha kwanthawi yayitali. Amafunikanso nthawi kuti apange gulu la ndale lomwe likupita patsogolo komanso gulu la ndale loyenera kuthandizira utsogoleri wawo wotchuka.
Izi zikufotokozera chifukwa chake kuwukira kwa dziko la Sudan kuli kodetsa nkhawa kwambiri kumadera akuderali kuposa ku Algeria. Mkangano wa GCC - Saudi Arabia ndi UAE komanso Qatar - onse adapereka chithandizo kwa Bashir asanachotsedwe. Saudi Arabia ndi UAE zathandizira gulu lankhondo la Sudan, lomwe tsopano likutsogoleredwa ndi akuluakulu omwe adamenyana nawo ku Yemen. Iwo akufuna kuthyola FDFC popambana ma "moderates" awo, makamaka chipani cha National Umma Party, pomwe akulimbikitsa asitikali kuti ayambe kuchita zachinyengo zachipembedzo (akunena kuti mgwirizanowu akufuna kuchotsa sharia pamalamulo a Sudan) mothandizidwa ndi gulu lankhondo. Salafist, makasitomala aku Saudi Arabia, ndi Muslim Brothers, omwe onse amatsutsa zomwe FDFC imanena kuti ndi utsogoleri.
Kodi zonsezi zidzabweretsa kusintha kwakukulu, monga mu 1917 ku Russia, kapena kupha magazi ngati kutha kwa Paris Commune, kugwiritsa ntchito kufananitsa kwa David Pilling? Lipenga la oukira boma aku Sudan ndiwo chikoka chawo chachikulu pagulu lankhondo ndi ma fayilo ndi akuluakulu akuluakulu, omwe ena adagwiritsa ntchito mfuti zawo kuteteza ochita ziwonetsero. Ichi ndi chifukwa chake akuluakulu a boma anakana kugwiritsa ntchito asilikali polimbana ndi gululi pamene Bashir anawalimbikitsa kutero. Monga ku Russia ndi Paris, ichi ndiye chinthu chofunikira kwambiri chomwe chidzawonetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa dziko la Sudan.
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