I kēia mau lā, ua loaʻa iaʻu kekahi mau nūpepa, nā mea hoʻonaʻauao a me nā mea hoʻoikaika holomua e nīnau mai iaʻu i koʻu manaʻo i kekahi o nā nīnau waiwai nui o kēia lā. Eia kekahi o kaʻu mau pane: e pili ana i ka ʻoki ʻauhau ʻo Trump a me ka ulu ʻana o ka US, nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa hoʻopaʻapaʻa i kēia manawa, ka uku, ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka like ʻole o ka loaʻa kālā ma ka US, he aha ka helu maoli o ka hoʻonui kālā i kēia lā, a inā he noi no ka loaʻa kālā hōʻoiaʻiʻo o ke ao holoʻokoʻa, Iubile aie, Modern Money Theory, ʻo ke kuʻikahi hou ʻōmaʻomaʻo nā mea e hoʻonā ai i nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai o kēia lā.
Nīnau 1: ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika ma lalo o Trump ma muli o kāna kulekele ʻoki ʻauhau a he aha ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā ʻAmelika uku haʻahaʻa i kēia lā?
Kauka Rasmus: ʻO ka ulu ʻana o ka US GDP kiʻekiʻe loa ma 2017-18 he mea liʻiliʻi loa ia me ka ʻoki ʻauhau Trump. ʻO ka ʻauhau ʻauhau Trump i hala i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2018 ua ʻoi aku ma mua o $ 4.5 trillion ma luna o nā makahiki he ʻumi, e kuhikuhi ana i nā ʻohana waiwai, nā ʻoihana, nā mea hoʻopukapuka a me nā hui, i hoʻokomo ʻia i mua i ka makahiki 2018. nā mea loaʻa, e hoʻomaka ana e paʻi i kēia makahiki a e wikiwiki ana ma hope o 1.5. ʻO nā manaʻo e pili ana i ka ulu ʻana o 2022% GDP no kekahi mau makahiki ʻē aʻe, me ka ʻole o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana, e hoʻopuka hou i ka $ 3 trillion. ʻO ka hopena i manaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ka $ 1.5 trillion i hōʻike ʻia e ka nūpepa. Akā ʻo ka $ 1.5 trillion ʻoki ʻia no ka ʻoihana a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka ʻaʻole i komo i loko o ka hoʻopukapuka maoli a hoʻokumu i ka Trump 4.5-2017 GDP ulu ulu.
ʻO ka hoʻokomo maoli ʻana i nā hale a me nā mea hana i hōʻemi mau ʻia ma mua o 2018 i ka wā i hoʻokō ʻia ai ka ʻauhau ʻauhau ʻo Trump: ana ʻia i loko o ka pākēneka i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka hapaha mua, ʻaʻole maikaʻi ke kūkulu hale noho i kēlā me kēia hapaha o 2018. o 2018. A ua hāʻule ka hoʻolimalima lako mai 8.5% i ka hapaha mua i 3.4% e ʻOkakopa 2018.
No laila inā ʻaʻole i komo ka ʻauhau ʻauhau ʻo Trump i ka hoʻopukapuka maoli, e hana ana i ka hana maoli a me ka GDP maoli ma hea i hele ai? Ua komo i loko o nā kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai, nā uku hoʻokaʻawale, a me ka hana M&A. Manaʻo kekahi mau keʻena noiʻi o nā panakō US i nā kūʻai hou a me nā ʻāpana no ka Fortune 500 ʻoihana nui loa ma US e hōʻea i kahi moʻolelo $1.3 trillion ma 2018. Hoʻohui i nā hui 2000 a i ʻole 5000 nui loa a kokoke i $2 trillion. He mau haneli miliona no ka M&A. ʻO kēia hoʻololi ʻana o ka ʻauhau ʻauhau ʻo Trump i nā mākeke kālā ke kumu nui o ka hoʻokele ʻana i nā mākeke waiwai (ʻoiai ma hope o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana) a me nā mākeke waiwai kālā ʻē aʻe.
Ua hōʻike nui ke aupuni i ka loaʻa kālā no ka awelika a me nā limahana uku haʻahaʻa ma US. Hōʻike nā hōʻike kumu kūʻokoʻa i ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hapalua o nā limahana US i loaʻa ʻole ka loaʻa ʻana o ka uku uku ma 2018. Ua hōʻike ka luna i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka uku uku o 3% ua skewed i ka 10% kiʻekiʻe o ka poʻe hana, e kauo ana i ka uku 'average'. Eia kekahi, ʻo ka ʻikepili no ka hana manawa piha wale nō, e waiho ana i nā ʻumi miliona o ka uku o nā limahana manawa-manawa. A ʻaʻole lawa ka helu ʻana i nā ʻauhau kūloko a me ka ukupanee no ka ʻaiʻē e hōʻemi hou ana i ka uku lawe home. A laila ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia ka inflation, e ʻike ʻia ka uku maoli. No laila, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā limahana maʻamau, me ka hapa nui o ka ʻike i ka emi ʻana o ka uku maoli. ʻO ka nui o ka hoʻonuiʻana i ka US ma lalo o ka manaʻoʻole no nāʻohana o kaʻohana limahana ma waena,ʻoiai ke piʻi nei ka piʻiʻana no nā hoʻolimalima, ka lāʻau lapaʻau, ka hoʻonaʻauao, a me nā mea nui'ē aʻe i ka waihona kālā o ka home. No laila, ʻo ka wā e hiki mai ana, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka loaʻa kālā maoli no ka hapa nui o nā limahana US. Inā maikaʻi ka hana ʻana o nā limahana i kēia lā, e like me ka hōʻike ʻana o Trump a me ka ʻoihana a me nā mea paʻi koʻikoʻi, no ke aha he 7 miliona o lākou i hōʻole ʻole i kā lākou hōʻaiʻē kaʻa? Ua like paha ka nui no nā hōʻaiʻē hoʻonaʻauao, ʻaʻole i hōʻike nui ʻia nā hemahema. A no ke aha i ʻaiʻē ai ke kāleka hōʻaiʻē, nā hōʻaiʻē kaʻa, a me ka hōʻaiʻē hoʻonaʻauao i kēia manawa ma mua o $1 trillion pākahi? A ʻo ka nui o ka hōʻaiʻē ʻohana e kokoke ana i $14 trillion?
Nīnau 2: Me ka poʻe malihini i kākau ʻole ʻia ma 10-12 miliona, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻoe i ka ʻōlelo a Trump e komo ana nā malihini i ka hoʻokele waiwai o US?
Kauka Rasmus: ʻAʻole maoli ka poʻe malihini e komo i ka US. Ua paʻa ka helu 10-12 miliona no kekahi mau makahiki. A no nā malihini no kekahi mau ʻāina, e like me Mexico, ke emi nui nei nā helu. He ʻoiaʻiʻo ke hele mai nei ka nui o nā malihini mai nā ʻāina ʻAmelika waena e like me Honduras, Salvador a me Guatemala. Akā, ma muli o ka pōʻino o ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka haki ʻana o ka nohona ma ia mau ʻāina, ʻo ia ka mea ma muli o ke kākoʻo ʻana o ʻAmelika i nā elite kolohe o kēlā mau ʻāina e paipai nei i ka hana ʻino ma ko lākou mau ʻāina a ʻaʻohe hana e pili ana i nā pilikia hoʻokele waiwai. Inā he pilikia me ka neʻe ʻana i ka US, he pilikia ia o nā limahana ʻenehana hoʻonaʻauao kiʻekiʻe i lawe ʻia ma nā visa H1-B a me L-1, a me nā poʻe ʻAsia waiwai e hiki ke kūʻai iā lākou iho i kahi noho 'kāleka'ōmaʻomaʻo ma ka hoʻohiki ʻana e hoʻolilo. $50,000 ke hele mai. Ke lawe nei kēia mau pūʻulu i nā hana maikaʻi loa, nā ʻenehana uku kiʻekiʻe a me nā hana ʻoihana ʻē aʻe, a mai ka makahiki 1990. Akā ke ʻae nei ʻo Trump me nā ʻoihana ʻenehana US e hoʻomau i ka lawe ʻana mai iā lākou, e lawe i nā hana a nā limahana US e loaʻa ai. ʻO ke kulekele hoʻokele a Trump a me ka hana draconian e kūʻē i nā malihini mai Latin America a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe e pili ana i kāna mau koho koho hou ʻana ma 2020. Ma ka hana ʻana i nā 'ʻenemi' i loko a i waho o ka US, hoʻohuli ʻo ia i kāna kumu politika mai nā pilikia maoli o ʻAmelika. ʻO ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana i ka haole i waena o mākou he kumu hoʻopaʻapaʻa fascist mau. A ke hele nei ʻo Trump i kēlā ala, e like me ka mea i ʻike ʻia i kāna hopu ʻana i ka mana Kumukānāwai hou e ka haʻi ʻana i nā pilikia ʻōiwi e kūkulu i kāna Wall a me ke kāhea ʻana i ka palekana aupuni phony e hōʻoia i kāna mau kaua kālepa.
Nīnau 3: Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻoe i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka ʻokoʻa ma waena o ka waiwai a me ka ʻilihune i ka wā o Trump hiki ke hoʻonui i ka makemake o ʻAmelika i ka socialism?
Kauka Rasmus: ʻAʻole hoʻonui wale ka loaʻa kālā a me ka waiwai i ka US akā e hana ana pēlā ma ka wikiwiki wikiwiki. ʻO ke kulekele neoliberal US ma lalo o Obama e kākoʻo i ka loaʻa kālā ma o ka Federal Reserve kālā cheap a me ka hoʻonui ʻana a me ka hoʻonui ʻana i kona mua, ʻo George W. Bush, nā ʻauhau ʻauhau no nā ʻoihana a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Ua hāʻawi ʻo ia ma mua o $ 5 trillion i nā ʻoki ʻauhau i nā ʻoihana a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka, ʻoi aku ma mua o Bush. Ua hoʻolōʻihi ʻia ke kulekele Trump i ka ʻoki ʻauhau a ua hoʻōki ʻo ia i ka Fed mai ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka uku ukupanee. No laila, loaʻa iā mākou ke kākoʻo ma nā steroids i kēia manawa e nā kulekele kālā a me ke kālā. ʻO ka hopena pololei ka ulu ʻana o nā kumukūʻai a me nā mākeke paʻa hui, hānai ʻia e $1 trillion mau kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai makahiki a me nā uku hoʻokaʻawale i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2011 (i kēia manawa he $1.3 trillion ma 2018). ʻOiai ka loaʻa ʻana o ka uku uku no ka 90% o nā ʻAmelika e noho paʻa, piʻi ʻole, a emi paha, ʻo ka hopena pololei ka wikiwiki o ka loaʻa ʻole o ka loaʻa kālā a me nā hakahaka waiwai. Akā, ma muli o ka neʻe ʻana i ka loaʻa kālā e nā poʻe kapena ʻAmelika (a me ka hoʻonui honua) i kūkulu ʻia mai ka makahiki 1980.
E hoʻonui anei kēia i ka hoihoi i ka socialism? Ua loaʻa. ʻO ka hapa nui, ʻoi aku ma mua o 60%, o ka poʻe i piha i ka makahiki 34 a ʻoi aku ka nui o ka poʻe hana, ua hōʻike i nā koho balota hou e makemake lākou i ka socialism ma mua o ka kapitalisme. No laila, ʻaʻole ia ma ka pōʻino, ua hoʻomaka ʻo Trump a me ka ʻoihana paʻi ʻoihana US i kahi hana ʻino e hoʻouka hou i ka manaʻo o ka socialism. E hoʻomau ʻia kēia hoʻololi ʻana i ka manaʻo o ka lehulehu i ka hoʻomau ʻana o nā kulekele Trump i ka ulu ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā, ka waiwai a me ka manawa kūpono ma ʻAmelika.
Nīnau 4: Ke ʻōlelo nei kekahi poʻe hoʻohewa o ka helu hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika e pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana, hiki ke kiʻekiʻe ka piʻi ʻana i ka 9.6% a i ʻole ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o 5%. He aha kou manaʻo no kēia?
Kauka Rasmus: Keʻae nei au i ka nui o ka CPI. ʻAʻole wau i manaʻo he 9.6%, akā ʻaʻole ʻo 2.1% (core) a i ʻole 2.4% (headline). Ua hoʻohewa lōʻihi ke kumu Shadow Stats i nā stats US, me ka hoʻonui. Eia kekahi, ka ʻikepili hana a me ka uku, ʻo ia mau mea aʻu i hoʻohewa nei i kēia makahiki i hala. ʻOi aku ka CPI ma mua o ka mea i hōʻike ʻia no nā kumu he nui. ʻO ka mea mua, e like me ka Shadow Stats memo, hana lākou i nā manaʻo kuhi hewa e pili ana i ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka maikaʻi o ka huahana e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka helu maoli. ʻO ka lua, hoʻohana lākou i ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo 'chain price indexing' e hoʻomaʻamaʻa, a hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka helu i ka manawa. ʻO ke kolu, ʻo nā paona no ka hīnaʻi waiwai i ka CPI ua pau. He ʻoiaʻiʻo kēia no ka loaʻa kālā waena a ma lalo o nā ʻohana. Pono nā paona like ʻole a me ka wehewehe ʻana o ka hīnaʻi no nā pae o ka loaʻa kālā, akā ʻaʻole. ʻO ka loaʻa kālā waena a ma lalo o nā ʻohana ke ʻike nei i ka piʻi nui ʻana ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ka lāʻau lapaʻau a me ke kumukūʻai olakino, ke piʻi ʻana o ka ʻauhau kūloko a me nā pono hana, piʻi ka uku paneʻe ma nā moraki, a me ka piʻi ʻana o nā hoʻolimalima. ʻAʻole i hōʻike ʻia nā kumukūʻai hoʻolimalima ma muli o ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻia ʻana e ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo 'imputed rents'; ʻo ia hoʻi, nā manaʻo e pili ana i ka poʻe nona ka home e uku iā lākou iho i ka hoʻolimalima (ʻae, ʻaʻole kūpono ia akā ʻoiaʻiʻo i ke ʻano hana), ʻaʻole i loli nui no nā makahiki akā, i ka wā i hoʻohui ʻia i nā hoʻolimalima pololei, hopena i ka awelika haʻahaʻa. Aia kekahi pilikia e pili ana i ka ʻohi ʻia ʻana o ka ʻikepili ma nā kumukūʻai.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ke kamaʻilio nei mākou ma ʻaneʻi e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai no nā waiwai a me nā lawelawe. ʻAʻole nā kumukūʻai no nā waiwai kālā i hoʻonui nui ʻia mai ka makahiki 2009, i ka ulu ʻana o nā pua. Manaʻo wau ʻo CPI maoli ma kahi o 3.5% a 4%, ʻaʻole ka 2.1%. ʻO ia ka mea ʻo ka US GDP maoli ʻaʻole 3% i 2018 akā ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o 1% i nā huaʻōlelo maoli. (ʻO ka helu kumukūʻai no ka hoʻoponopono maoli GDP ʻo ia ka GDP deflator index, ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ka CPI (a i ʻole ka PCE, ka mea i hoʻohana ai ka Fed).
E nānā i ka hapaha mua o 2019 GDP e kokoke ana i ka 1% i ka hōʻike kūhelu ma hope o kēia pūnāwai. ʻO ia ke ʻano o ka ʻoki ʻauhau ʻo Trump ma mua o $ 4 trillion i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, i hoʻouka mua ʻia ma 2018, ua liʻiliʻi loa ka hopena i ka GDP maoli. ʻO ka hapa nui o ia mea ua hele i nā kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai, nā uku hoʻokaʻawale a me ke kālā M&A. Buybacks pus dividends no ka Fortune 500 e like me $1.3 trillion no 2018, he mooolelo. Ke emi nei ka waiwai maoli i ka makahiki 2018, i ka wā i hoʻomaka ai ka ʻoki ʻauhau. Hana ʻia nā hale noho i kēlā me kēia hapaha. Ua lohi ka hana kalepa, akā ua hoʻololi maikaʻi ʻia i ka hapa lua o ka makahiki. A ua emi iho ka waiwai waiwai mai 8.5% i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o 2018 a i 3% -4% ma ka hopena. He moʻolelo moʻolelo maoli ʻo ia ke kuleana o nā ʻauhau ʻauhau ʻo Trump no ka 3% a me ka ulu ʻana ma 2018. ʻO ka hapa nui ma muli o ka hoʻolimalima aupuni, ʻoi aku ka pale, a me ka ʻai ʻana i alakaʻi ʻia e ka ʻaiʻē home no ka 80% lalo, ʻoiai ke piʻi maikaʻi nei ka uku no ka luna. ʻO 10% ka mea i alakaʻi i ka hoʻohana. Ua ʻoki ʻo Trump i ka mālama ʻana i ka uku i ka makahiki 2018 i manaʻo ai nā ʻohana maʻamau i ka ʻoki ʻana i ka ʻauhau e waiho ana i nā kālā hou aʻe i kā lākou ʻeke. ʻAʻole naʻe. A i kēia manawa, i ka makahiki 2019, e hoʻomaka ka hapa nui o nā ʻohana i ka nahu o nā ʻauhau hou aʻe. ʻO ka $ 4 a i ka $ 4.5 trillion ʻoki ʻauhau ʻo Trump e hele ana i ka poʻe waiwai loa, ʻoihana, a me nā ʻoihana, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka US multinationals. E hoʻopau ʻia kēlā e $ 1.5 trillion i nā piʻi ʻauhau no ka poʻe loaʻa ka uku, e hoʻomaka maoli ana e paʻi ma kahi o 2022. Hoʻohui ʻia nā manaʻo phony e pili ana i 3% me ka nui o ka ulu ʻana o GDP no nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, me ka ʻole o ka hoʻoiho. ʻO ia ke ʻano e loaʻa ai iā Trump kāna $1.5 trillion huina pau mai ka ʻoki ʻauhau. He moʻolelo moʻolelo nui ʻaʻole i hōʻike ʻia e ka paʻi. He naʻaupō paha nā mea hoʻolaha a i ʻole ke kulekele e hōʻike i ka $ 1.5 trillion.
I nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, ʻaʻole pololei nā helu kumukūʻai, akā ʻo GDP, nā uku a me nā ʻikepili hana pū kekahi. ʻO ka mea wale nō e paʻa i ka hale o nā kāleka he aie. No nā hale i kēia manawa e kokoke ana i $ 14 trillion. No ke aupuni aupuni i kēia manawa he $22 trillion (a e hele ana i $34 trillion e 2028). No nā moku'āina a me nā aupuni kūloko, ʻoi aku ka miliona. A no ka ʻoihana pilikino ʻoi aku ma mua o $ 20 trillion. A nui pilikia me leveraged aie aie, junk rate hui aie, hapalua o ka hoʻokomo 'ana helu (ie BBB) 'o ia hoʻi 'junk', a me ka mea i ike i ka mea i loko o derivatives a me ka palena aie e nā mea hoʻopukapuka kālā.
Nīnau 5: ʻO ka poʻe kākoʻo holomua o ka waihona kālā aupuni, a me ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo ka manaʻo monetary monetary hou, manaʻo lāua ʻelua e hiki i ka Federal Reserve ke hana i ke kālā no ka pono waiwai o nā kamaʻāina, ʻaʻole no nā panakō wale nō. He aha kou manaʻo no kēia? A e pili ana i ka manaʻo o ka loaʻa kālā kumu, he aha ka mea i kapa ʻia ʻo ka Iubile aie o ke kala kala ʻana i nā ʻaiʻē o nā ʻohana, a me kahi kuʻikahi hou?
Kauka Rasmus: ʻAʻole hānai ka Fed i nā panakō no ka pale ʻana i ka emi ʻana; ke hānai nei ka Fed i nā mākeke kālā no ka pale ʻana i ke kolu o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa nui mai Feb. 2018 e hiki mai ana. ʻO ke kālā haʻahaʻa ma ke ʻoi aku ka mālama ʻana i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa (a i ʻole ma kēia hihia e pale iā lākou mai ka piʻi ʻana aʻe). Akā ʻaʻole komo ke kālā i loko o ka hoʻopukapuka maoli. Hele ia i nā mākeke waiwai (a i ʻole e kahe ana i waho o nā mākeke e kū mai ana), a i ʻole i ka hana M&A, a i ʻole i nā kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai a me nā uku hoʻokaʻawale i nā trillions i kēlā me kēia makahiki (i kēia makahiki $ 1.3 trillion, ma hope o 6 mau makahiki o ka awelika o ka trillion o ka makahiki).
ʻAe, hiki i ka Fed ke hāʻawi i ka hōʻaiʻē i nā ʻohana a me nā panakō ʻole, akā ʻaʻole ia ke kumu i hana ʻia ai. Ua hana ʻia, e like me nā panakō waena a pau, e kōkua i nā panakō me ka hōʻaiʻē haʻahaʻa a e hoʻopaʻa iā lākou i ka wā e inu nui ai lākou a hana i kahi pilikia. Ma ka postscript i kaʻu puke 2017, 'Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes', hāʻawi wau i ka ʻōlelo no ke kānāwai (a me kahi hoʻololi kumukānāwai) e hoʻololi maoli i ka misionari o ka Fed e lawelawe i nā kaiāulu āpau ʻaʻole wale nā panakō a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka. Akā ua hoʻokumu ʻia ka Fed i ka makahiki 1913 e hāʻawi wale i nā panakō, a mai ka makahiki 2018, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā waiwai ma mua o nā waihona kālepa e like me Chase, Wells, Citi, etc.
No ka manao ana i ka Iubile aie, he lapuwale. I ka wā e loaʻa ai kahi ʻōnaehana kapitalista ʻaʻole e ʻae ka poʻe kapitalista i ke kala ʻana i ka ʻaiʻē ma kahi ʻano nui. Pono ʻoe e hoʻololi i ka ʻōnaehana ma mua o ka ʻae ʻana.
Pehea e pili ana i ka loaʻa kālā kumu? ʻAʻole hiki ke ʻae ʻia kekahi mea like. Ua manaʻo ʻo McKinsey Consultants e hoʻopau ka ʻenehana Artificial Intelligence, a i ʻole AI, i ka 30% o nā ʻoihana a pau ma US ma 2030. Ua ʻoi aku ma mua o 50 miliona o ka poʻe limahana US he hapa manawa, temp, gig a i ʻole ka mea i kapa ʻia 'contingent' a i ʻole ka poʻe hana precariat. Ke hana nei lākou i ʻelua a ʻekolu mau hana hapa manawa no ka hoʻokō ʻana a ʻaʻole hiki. E hoʻokele ʻo AI i kēlā huina i ʻoi aku ma mua o ka hapalua o ka poʻe hana. ʻAʻole hiki i ka ʻōnaehana ke hoʻokele i ka nui o nā limahana haʻahaʻa a emi ʻole ka uku. E hāʻule ka hoʻohana ʻana, ʻoiai ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā ʻaiʻē ʻē aʻe o ka home no ke kālā ʻai. Eia nō naʻe, ʻo ka hapa nui o ka poʻe e manaʻo nei i ka loaʻa kālā maʻamau i kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka pōmaikaʻi a he mea maʻalahi ia no ka poʻe kapitalista. E pili ana i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka uku a me ka hana ʻana i nā hana maoli e ola ai nā ʻohana. Pono mākou e noʻonoʻo ma mua o UBI wale nō. Akā ke lawe nei i ka manaʻo i ka pilikia o ka loaʻa ʻole o ka uku uku no nā ʻumi miliona o ʻAmelika, ʻo ka hapa nui o nā limahana ʻōpio a me nā mea kahiko i koi ʻia e hana i kā lākou mau kanahiku a hiki i ka hāʻule ʻana.
Hoʻolilo kālā i ka lāʻau lapaʻau no nā mea a pau? Hiki ke noʻonoʻo pehea e hiki ai i ka Fed, ma ke ʻano he epicenter o kahi ʻōnaehana panakō lehulehu (ma kahi o kaʻu noi) hiki ke hāʻawi kālā no ka ʻoihana no ka lāʻau lapaʻau no nā mea a pau, ma kahi papa hou o nā keʻena lapaʻau a me nā keʻena kauka aupuni ma ka ʻāina. Akā ʻo ke kālā maoli no Medicare no nā mea āpau e hele mai mai ka ʻauhau ʻana i nā mākeke kālā. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka poʻe koho pāloka. ʻO Ditto no nā hoʻolālā Green New Deal.
ʻO ka poʻe holomua i makemake ʻia i ka waihona kālā lehulehu a i ʻole nā ʻoluʻolu kālā ʻē aʻe (ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo Modern Monetary Theory Advocates) e manaʻo nui i ka hiki ke loaʻa i nā hopena kālā i ka pilikia hoʻokele waiwai i kēia manawa e oʻo lōʻihi ana, ʻoiai ke hoʻomau nei ka lohi o ka hoʻopukapuka maoli, hāʻule nā huahana, nā kumu kūʻai i ka stagnation a me ka deflation. (ka uku, ka uku paneʻe, nā waiwai a me nā lawelawe), lohi ka ulu ʻana o ka honua, a huli ka poʻe kapikala i nā mākeke waiwai kālā no ka loaʻa ʻana o kā lākou waiwai ma mua o ka hana ʻana i nā mea a me nā lawelawe hou e pono ai a hāʻawi i ka loaʻa kālā no ka ʻai. ʻO ia ka 'pilikia lohi' o ka kapitalisme i kēia lā.
Ke kākoʻo nei au i kahi panakō aupuni, akā ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana liʻiliʻi wale nō o ka hopena nui e pono ai ke komo i nā kulekele kālā, nā kulekele ʻoihana, a me nā kulekele waho (kālepa, pākēneka, kahe kālā). ʻO ke kālā a me ka waihona kālā he ʻāpana wale nō o ka papahana hou e pono ai. Akā he mea ʻole ka papahana me ka ʻole o ka hui politika. ʻO ka nele o ia mea ke kumu nui o ka manawa a mākou e noho nei. Ma hea e huli ai nā kānaka e komo i ka ʻike ʻana i nā manaʻo hou? Aole ka aoao Demokarata. ʻAʻole kekahi o ka Trumpublicans (ʻaʻohe Republican Party i koe, ʻo ia ʻo Trump i kēia manawa). Aʻo nā uniona, i ko lākou uluʻana i ka nāwaliwali, huli lākou i nā Dems e hoʻopakele i kā lākou hoki. No laila poina i kahi pāʻina hana ma muli o nā uniona. ʻO ia ka nostalgia o nā makahiki 1930. ʻAʻole e hele hou mai.
ʻO ke kumumanaʻo MMT kahi manaʻo kaulike ʻē aʻe e hoʻoholo ai e hiki ke hana ʻia ke kālā me ka palena ʻole, e hoʻohana wale ia no nā papahana holomua. ʻAʻole wau manaʻoʻiʻo i kēlā. ʻO ke kālā manuahi a ka Fed no nā mea panakō a me nā mea hoʻopukapuka mai ka makahiki 1980, a ʻoi aku hoʻi mai ka makahiki 2000, a me ka wikiwiki ʻana ma hope o 2009, ke alakaʻi nei i nā hemahema a me nā aie. ʻO ka $22 trillion e lilo i $ 34 trillion ma lalo o ʻumi makahiki. A ʻo ka ukupanee ma ia mea he $900 biliona i ka makahiki, no ka CBO. ʻO ia hoʻi, pono e haʻalele ka poʻe kapitalista i kā lākou ʻauhau ʻauhau, e hoʻemi i kā lākou kālā hoʻolimalima kaua, a i ʻole ... hoʻouka kaua nui i ka mālama ola, ka lāʻau lapaʻau, ka hoʻonaʻauao, a pēlā aku. ʻAʻole kala ʻia ka Trumpublicans no ia mea; a ke wahaheʻe nei nā Dems e pili ana i ka hana ʻole.
I kēia manawa, hoʻomau ʻo Sanders i ka hana kālai'āina ʻo Don Quixote tilting ma ka pāʻina Dem, e hoʻāʻo nei e hoʻoponopono iā ia, e hoʻomau mau ana iā ia a e hana mau loa. ʻO nā Warrens, Bookers, a me nā mea holomua ersatz e 'kamaʻilio i ke kamaʻilio', nā ʻeke kālā a me nā alakaʻi ʻo Dem e paipai iā lākou e hana pēlā i mea e hoʻopau ai a hoʻopau i ka ʻōlelo holomua a Sanders, akā i ka hopena e loaʻa i ka poʻe holomua ka mea e hiki mai ana. No ka koho ʻana i ka pelekikena 2020, e haʻalele nā alakaʻi o ka Party i kā lākou mau noi a me nā papahana a lawe iā lākou i ka laina. Mai poina iā Obama i ka makahiki 2008, e like me ka holomua ʻana, akā i ka manawa i noho ai i ke keʻena, hoʻihoʻi hou i ka poʻe panakō i kāna hoʻokele. Akā ʻo Biden ka mea holo mua. No laila, ʻaʻole paha e koho ka pāʻina iā Warren, Booker, a i ʻole kekahi o nā ersatz progressive wannabes a me Sanders clones.
I ka pōkole, ʻoiai ua kākau paha wau e pili ana i nā waihona kālā waena a me nā mākeke kālā ma mua o ka hapa nui o ka 'ma ka hema' (ʻo ka puke hou e hiki mai ana ma Malaki ʻo 'Alexander Hamilton and the Origins of the Fed'), ʻaʻole wau he mea kākoʻo o ka mea mua. ka hilinaʻi ʻana i ke kulekele kālā a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka ʻōnaehana panakō ma ke ʻano he hopena. A ʻaʻohe mea nui me ka ʻole e hoʻoholo mua i ka 'nīnau hui'.
ʻO Jack Rasmus ka mea kākau o 'Central Bankers at the End of Their Ropes: Monetary Policy and the Coming Depression, Clarity Press, August 2017 a me ka mea e hiki mai ana, 'The Scourge of Neoliberalism: Economic Policy from Reagan to Trump', Clarity, 2019. He blogs ma jackrasmus.com a hoʻokipa i ka hōʻike lekiō i kēlā me kēia pule, Alternative Visions, ma ka Progressive Radio Network. ʻO @drjackrasmus kāna twitter.
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