Manaʻo ʻia ʻoiai ua hāʻawi ʻia iā Brian Riedl, he hoa kiʻekiʻe ma ka Manhattan Institute, nui ka hakahaka e ʻōlelo i nā mea hoʻopunipuni loa, inā ʻaʻole wahaheʻe loa. ʻO ka mea nui o ka ʻāpana a Riedl ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻomau i ka Social Security a me Medicare me ka ʻole o ka hoʻonui ʻauhau ma ka papa waena.
ʻO ka hapa nui o ka ʻāpana ka laina maʻamau e pili ana i ka heluna kanaka ʻelemakule e kau nei i kahi ukana hiki ʻole a mākou e heluhelu nei ma NYT a ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe no nā makahiki he nui. No ka laʻana, loaʻa iā Riedl kahi punahele kahiko:
ʻO ka ratio o nā limahana e kākoʻo ana i kēlā me kēia mea hoʻomaha 5:1 hoʻi i ka makahiki 1960, e hāʻule i ka hala 2:1 ma ka makahiki e hiki mai ana.
ʻO kēia, ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻoiaʻiʻo nui. ʻO ka ʻāpana hoʻopunipuni ʻo ka hapa nui o ka emi ʻana o ka ratio o nā limahana i nā mea hoʻomaha i hana ʻia i ka wā ma mua. ʻO ka ratio Ua emi iho ka nui o na limahana i uhiia i ka poe i loaa i ka 3.2:1 ma ka makahiki 1975. Ua lele a puni keia pae a hiki i ka hoomaka ana o na keiki boomers e hoomaha i ka pau ana o na makahiki mua o ke kenekulia.
ʻO ka ratio o nā limahana i ka poʻe hoʻomaha i kēia manawa i ka 2.8 i ka 1. Ua manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule i ka 2.4 i ka 1 i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana. Ua makaʻu anei ʻoe?
Ua haʻi mai ʻo Riedl iā mākou, "ʻo ka poʻe e noho ana a hiki i ka makahiki 90, kahi hui e ulu wikiwiki ana, e hoʻopau i ka hapakolu o ko lākou ola makua e hōʻiliʻili i nā pono Social Security a me Medicare." ʻElua mau pilikia me kēia ʻōlelo.
ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ka poʻe e noho ana i 90 e lilo i poʻe limahana ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe. Nui ka poʻe i hoʻopaneʻe i ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i nā pōmaikaʻi Social Security a hiki i ko lākou makahiki 70, a kokoke paha. Eia kekahi, inā hoʻomau lākou i ka hana a loaʻa iā lākou ka ʻinikua olakino i hāʻawi ʻia e ka limahana, ʻaʻole ʻo Medicare ka uku mua a hiki i ka wā e hoʻomaha ai. Inā hoʻomaka ka "ola makua" i ka makahiki 18, a laila ke nānā nei mākou i ka poʻe e ola ana a hiki i ka makahiki 90 e hōʻiliʻili ana i nā pōmaikaʻi no kahi hapaha o ko lākou ola makua (20 mau makahiki mai 72 mau makahiki).
Akā ʻo ka mea nui loa, ʻaʻole i piʻi ka manaʻolana o ke ola no kēlā me kēia kanaka. E like me ka mea hou hoike mai ka Congressional Research Service i kākau ʻia, ʻaneʻane ʻaʻohe piʻi o ka manaʻolana o ke ola ma ka makahiki 65 no nā limahana ma ka hapa haʻahaʻa o ka hāʻawi kālā. ʻO ka moʻolelo o ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka manaʻolana o ke ola he mea nui, he moʻolelo o nā limahana ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi e noho lōʻihi ana.
Loaʻa ma waho o ka hoʻopunipuni
Ua haʻi pū ʻo Riedl iā mākou "e loaʻa i nā kāne hoʻomaha maʻamau i kēia lā nā pōmaikaʻi Medicare ʻekolu manawa ka nui o kā lākou mau haʻawina ola i ka ʻōnaehana." He ʻoiaʻiʻo kēia, akā haʻalele i ʻelua mau mea nui.
ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ke kumu i kiʻekiʻe loa ai ka waiwai o nā pōmaikaʻi Medicare ʻo ia kā mākou uku pālua no kā mākou mālama olakino, kēlā me kēia kanaka, e like me nā poʻe ma nā ʻāina waiwai ʻē aʻe. ʻAʻole kēia ma muli o ka mālama maikaʻi ʻana. ʻAʻole ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka poʻe ma ʻAmelika e ka hapa nui o nā ana hopena.
ʻO kā mākou mau kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe ka hopena o ka ʻoiaʻiʻo e uku pālua mākou i nā mea āpau. Uku mākou i nā hui lāʻau lapaʻau ʻelua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā lāʻau lapaʻau. Uku mākou i nā mea hana lāʻau lapaʻau ʻelua ʻoi aku ka nui no nā mea lapaʻau. Uku pālua mākou i kā mākou mau kauka ma mua o nā kauka ma ʻEulopa a me Kanada. A, hoʻolei mākou i nā haneli haneli i kēlā me kēia makahiki i nā hui ʻinikua no ka mea he mau lobbyists ikaika lākou e hiki ke loaʻa iā lākou i kēia mau hāʻawi. ʻO kā mākou mau pōmaikaʻi Medicare ʻaʻole ia he moʻolelo o ka poʻe ʻelemakule e noho ana i ke ola kiʻekiʻe, he moʻolelo lākou o nā pūʻulu hoihoi ikaika e ʻoki ana i ka ʻōnaehana olakino.
Akā ʻo kēia wale nō nā hoʻopunipuni maʻamau a mākou i manaʻo ai mai nā lā i lilo ai ka piliona pilikino pilikino ʻo Peter Peterson. alakaʻi i ka hoʻopiʻi kū'ē i ka Social Security a me Medicare. Akā ʻo ka pilikia ʻē aʻe me ka ʻōlelo a Reidl Medicare e hele i ka ʻaoʻao wahaheʻe.
ʻAʻole like me Social Security, ʻaʻole i hoʻolālā ʻia ʻo Medicare ma ke ʻano he ʻōnaehana kahi e manaʻo ʻia ai kahi ʻauhau i hoʻolaʻa ʻia e uku piha i ka papahana. He ʻekolu ʻāpana ʻo Traditional Medicare: ʻO ka Māhele A ka ʻāpana inikua halemai o ka papahana, i manaʻo ʻia e uku ʻia mai ka ʻauhau Medicare i hoʻolaʻa ʻia. Mālama ka Māhele B i nā uku o nā kauka. Hoʻolālā wale ʻia kēia e hāʻawi kālā ʻia e nā uku i uku ʻia e nā mea i loaʻa. ʻO ka Māhele D no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka lāʻau lapaʻau, kahi i hoʻolālā ʻia e loaʻa kālā ʻāpana wale ʻia e nā uku uku. (Aia kekahi ʻāpana C, Medicare Advantage, i manaʻo ʻia he ala e hoʻolele kālā i nā hui ʻinikua.)
No ka mea ʻaʻole i hoʻolālā ʻia ka hapa nui o ka papahana Medicare e uhi ʻia e nā uku pololei i ka papahana, ʻaʻole kūpono ke hoʻokomo i kēia mau ʻāpana o ka papahana i nā hoʻopiʻi e pili ana i ka hemahema o Medicare. Ke haʻi mai ʻo Riedl iā mākou e manaʻo ʻia ʻo Medicare e holo i kahi $ 48 trillion pōkole i nā makahiki he ʻekolu e hiki mai ana, ʻo ka hapa nui o kēia pōkole i kuhi ʻia ma muli o kahi hapa o ka papahana ʻaʻole i uhi ʻia e nā ʻauhau kikoʻī Medicare e ka hoʻolālā.
Hoʻohālikelike ia i ka haʻi ʻana iā mākou e holo ana ka Defence Department i kahi $ 890 biliona deficit i kēia makahiki (3.4 pakeneka o GDP), no ka mea ʻo ia ka nui o kāna hoʻolilo ʻana ma mua o kāna mau ʻauhau i koho ʻia. Manaʻo wau ʻaʻole e ʻae ka NYT i ka ʻāpana e hoʻopiʻi nei i ka hapa nui o ka 'Oihana Defence ma kāna ʻaoʻao manaʻo no ka mea ʻaʻohe kumu. No ke aha i ʻae ʻia ai kēia hoʻopiʻi e pili ana i ka deficit Medicare?
Aia kekahi moʻolelo hoihoi loa e pili ana i ka hemahema i manaʻo ʻia no ka papahana Medicare Part A: ua hāʻule nui ia i nā makahiki i hala iho nei. I ka makahiki 2000, ʻo ia i kauʻiae kū ana ʻo Medicare i kahi pōkole o 0.4 pākēneka o GDP (ma kahi o $90 biliona o ka makahiki) i kēia manawa, e piʻi ana i ka 1.0 pakeneka o GDP ma 2040 (Table III.C1). ʻO ka hōʻike hope loa o nā kahu E hoike mai he pōkole o 0.04 pakeneka o GDP i kēia makahiki, e piʻi ana i 0.42 pakeneka i 2040 a laila hāʻule i ke koena o ke kenekulia.
ʻO kēia hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ke kālā o ka papahana ma muli o ka lohi o ka ulu ʻana o ke kumukūʻai olakino. ʻAʻole pono e ʻōlelo, inā loaʻa iā mākou nā kumukūʻai mālama olakino e like me nā kumukūʻai ma nā ʻāina e like me Kelemania a me Kanada, e hōʻike ana ka papahana i kahi koena nui. He kuleana ko ke Affordable Care Act i ka pale ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o ke kumukūʻai olakino i kēia manawa. Ke hoʻāʻo nei ʻo Pelekikena Biden e hele hou aku me kāna mau manaʻo e kaupalena i nā kumukūʻai lāʻau inā ʻaʻole kū ʻo Republican "deficit hawks" i kona ala.
Pono mākou e ʻauhau i ka papa waena?
ʻElua mau mea e hana ai ma ka ʻāpana a Reidl. ʻO ka mea mua, aia kahi pilikia e pono koke ʻo Social Security i nā loaʻa kālā hou aʻe ma mua o ka mea i manaʻo ʻia e hele mai mai kāna ʻauhau uku i koho ʻia. Hiki ke hele mai kēia, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa, mai ka hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻana i nā ʻauhau ma luna o ka poʻe ʻoi aku ka loaʻa kālā. ʻAʻole ʻohi ʻia ka ʻauhau ma ka loaʻa kālā ma luna o $160k.
I ka wā i hoʻonoho ʻia ai kēia ʻoki ʻia i ka makahiki 1982, he 10 pakeneka wale nō o ka loaʻa kālā i ʻoi aku ma luna o ka pāpale. Ma muli o ka hoʻonui hou ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i nā makahiki he ʻehā i hala iho nei, kokoke i ka 18 pakeneka o ka loaʻa kālā ma luna o kēia ʻoki. ʻO ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka hapa nui o ka uku o ka poʻe loaʻa kālā i ka ʻauhau e kōkua i ka pani ʻana i ka hemahema i manaʻo ʻia.
Hiki iā mākou ke huli i nā ʻauhau ʻē aʻe, e like me nā ʻauhau ma ka loaʻa ʻole o ka uku uku a i ʻole nā ʻauhau ʻauhau ʻoihana kiʻekiʻe. E neʻe ana kēia mai ka hana o ka loaʻa kālā ʻana i nā pōmaikaʻi mai ka ʻauhau Social Security i hoʻolaʻa ʻia, akā ʻaʻole maopopo ka nui o nā poʻe e pilikia ana i kēia neʻe.
He mea kūpono hoʻi e hoʻomaopopo i nā makahiki i hala aku nei ua hoʻokiʻekiʻe mākou i ka helu ʻauhau Social Security. ʻO ka ʻauhau Social Security ua hoʻonuiʻia i loko o nā makahiki ʻelima ma hope o kona hoʻomaka ʻana, mai ka 2.0 pakeneka i ka makahiki 1937 a i ka 12.4 pakeneka i ka makahiki 1990. ʻAʻole i hoʻonui iki ʻia ma mua o 30 mau makahiki.
ʻO wau nei kaulana i nehinei, ua hiki i ka politika ke hoʻonui nui i ka ʻauhau no ka mea, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa ma nā makahiki kanakolukumamālima mua o ka noho ʻana o ka papahana, ke piʻi nei ka uku maoli i ka wikiwiki maikaʻi. ʻO ka ʻauhau ʻana i kahi ʻāpana o ka uku uku i loaʻa i nā limahana i kēlā me kēia makahiki he mea maʻalahi ia ma mua o ka noi ʻana i nā limahana e hāʻawi i kahi ʻāpana o nā uku uku i paʻa a i ʻole ke emi ʻana ma ke ʻano maoli.
Me he mea la ua hoi hou ka uku maoli ma ke ala pii. E hoʻomaka ana i ka waena o nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala, e piʻi ana ka uku maoli ma kahi kokoke i 1.0 pakeneka i kēlā me kēia makahiki no ka limahana maʻamau. Hoʻopau pōkole ka piʻi ʻana o ka maʻi maʻi i kēia ulu ʻana, akā ʻike ʻia ke piʻi hou nei ka uku maoli, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka poʻe ma ka ʻāpana lalo o ke alapii uku. Inā hoʻomau kēia ʻano, hiki ke hoʻonui iki i nā ʻauhau Social Security inā pono ia.
ʻO ka pilikia ʻē aʻe, ʻaʻole pono mākou i nā ʻauhau ʻē aʻe, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa mai kahi ʻano macroeconomic. He nui nā mea hoʻokele waiwai, ʻo ia hoʻi ke Kakauolelo Waihona mua ʻo Larry Summers, ua hakakā ʻO ka pilikia nui loa e kū nei i kahi hui ʻelemakule ʻo ia ka "stagnation secular." He moʻolelo kēia kahi i lawa ʻole ai ke koi e hoʻomau i ka holo ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai i kona hiki ke mālama i ka poʻe hana. He 180 degere kēia me ka moʻolelo ʻaʻole loaʻa iā mākou nā kumuwaiwai e pono ai ke kākoʻo i ka ulu ʻana o ka poʻe ʻelemakule. Inā pololei ka ʻike ʻana o Summers, ʻaʻohe kumu e hoʻonui ʻia ai ka ʻauhau ma muli o ka pilikia o ka hoʻokele waiwai no ka liʻiliʻi o ka noi, ʻaʻole nui.
I ka pōkole, aia ka lobby makaʻu i kāna mau hana kahiko, ka poʻe koʻikoʻi maoli (e kū'ē i ka "poʻe koʻikoʻi loa") e hakakā nei no nā makahiki he mau makahiki. ʻO ka Social Security a me Medicare he mau moʻolelo kūleʻa nui e hilinaʻi ʻia e nā ʻumi miliona o ka poʻe. ʻAʻole pono mākou e ʻae i nā moʻolelo hoʻoweliweli hoʻopunipuni i kumu no ka hōʻemi ʻana a/a i ʻole ka hoʻolaha ʻana i kēia mau papahana.
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