"Ana buƙatar dala tiriliyan 200 don dakatar da dumamar yanayi" (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
A tashe, za a yi wasan wuta a cikin makwanni biyu a cikin katafaren ginin da aka fi sani da Dubai. Shugabannin duniya, masana kimiyyar yanayi, masu kula da muhalli, da masu samar da man fetur za su yi karo da juna kan hasashen sauyin yanayi da tasirin dumamar yanayi, ko ya kamata a kira shi dumama duniya? Tuni, akwai alamun tashin hankali, kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin wani kanun labarai na BBC na baya-bayan nan: “Rarraba Zurfafa Gaban Tattaunawar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya Mai Muhimmanci” d/d Oktoba 31, 2023.
Taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kan sauyin yanayi na 2023 ko taron bangarorin UNFCCC, wanda aka fi sani da COP28, zai kasance taron sauyin yanayi na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya karo na 28, wanda zai gudana daga ranar 30 ga Nuwamba har zuwa 12 ga Disamba.th Expo City, Dubai.
Tambayar ta taso, shin sakamakon COP28 zai taimaka wajen ceto duniyar? Amma, a daya bangaren, shin duniyar tana bukatar taimako da gaske, ko kuwa wayewar dan Adam ne ke cikin matsala? Bayan haka, duniyar ta kasance mafi muni, Permian-Triassic Extinction shekaru miliyan 250 da suka wuce, kuma ta tsira. Homo sapiens ba zai yi hakan ba saboda an share kashi 95% na rayuwar ruwa kuma kusan dukkanin kashin baya sun mutu. Amma kuma, shekaru miliyan 250 kenan da suka wuce.
Ya kamata a lura cewa shekaru 30 na COPs sun sami ɗan ci gaba kaɗan ga rage ƙa'ida ko kawar da iskar gas. Gwamnatoci ba su taba daukar shi da muhimmanci ba. A halin yanzu, a cikin tsarin lokaci guda, CO2 ya karu da kashi 60% ba tare da raguwar shekara ba sai a cikin 2020 lokacin da iskar gas ya ragu da kashi 4.6% yayin kullewar COVID na duniya kawai don komawa zuwa sabon matakin rikodin a 2021.
Gas na Greenhouse ya kasance a kan hanya maras ƙarfi, sama da nesa, tsawon shekarun masana'antu, tarko zafin duniya, haɓaka yanayin zafi na duniya, karkatar da rafukan jet, da tarwatsa yanayin yanayin cikin hauka. Duk wannan yana ci gaba da tursasa masana kimiyya don fitar da amsoshi game da barazanar da ake gani na bacewar ɗan adam, duniyar 6.th, amma watakila zai zama bacewa ne kawai ko kuma babu ƙarewa. Babu wanda ya san tabbas yadda al'amura irin waɗannan ke faruwa. Amma mutane za su iya rayuwa ba tare da yanayin halittu masu amfani da rai ba, kamar dazuzzuka, dazuzzuka, Babban Barrier Reef, da koguna masu fa'ida, kuma: bisa ga yarjejeniyar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya don Yaƙi Hamada, 75% na ƙasar Spain ana fama da yanayin da zai iya haifar da hamada?
Manyan ministocin muhalli sama da 28 da tawagogin kasa 70 sun yi taro a Abu Dhabi a cikin shekarar da ta fi zafi da aka taba samu a duniya baki daya. Dole ne wakilai su yi mamakin ko man fetur na iya isar da ƙarancin carbon duniya. Tambayar ta amsa kanta. Shugaban COP100 mai zuwa, Sultan Al Jaber, wanda ya yi kaurin suna a matsayin mai sasantawa, shi ne shugaban Adnoc, kamfanin mai na UAE.
A cewar BBC News, Greta "Yaya Dare Ka" Thunberg yana cikin wani yanayi na kaduwa, yana tambayar dukkanin tsarin COP, wanda ke da fahimta. Ya bambanta da Greta, Mista Al Jaber ya yi iƙirarin cewa sauyin yanayi imbroglio za a iya warware shi ne kawai tare da taimakon masana'antar mai tare da sanya ido don iyakance yanayin zafi zuwa 1.5 ° C. Wannan ita ce manufar da aka bayyana a bainar jama'a na Ƙungiyar gwamnatoci kan sauyin yanayi (IPCC). Me yasa rundunar COP28 zata ce wani abu kuma? Amma duk da haka, yana da ban sha'awa cewa Al Jaber ya ce za a iya magance matsalar ta hanyar taimakon masana'antar mai.
Har yanzu mafi ban sha'awa, Al Jaber ya yarda cewa dole ne a rage fitar da hayaki da kashi 43 cikin 2030 nan da shekarar 600,000 saboda abin da kimiyya ta ce dole ne a yi. Duk da haka, Adnoc yana da shirin kara yawan man da ake hakowa da ganga 150 a kowace rana a daidai wannan lokaci. Katafaren mai da iskar gas zai kashe dala biliyan XNUMX don fadada hakowa. Ko da ƙarin ruɗani tukuna, Al Jaber ya yi iƙirarin: "Tattalin arzikin duniya yana buƙatar ƙarin samarwa yayin da hayaƙi ke faɗuwa." Me ya ɓace a nan?
A cewar 'yan kwanan nan hira tare da Kevin Anderson, Cibiyar Binciken Canjin Yanayi na Tyndall, game da COP28: “Kamfanin mai a yanzu ya yi nasarar lalata tsarin COP… abin da muka samu shine tsarin COP wanda kamfanonin mai suka mamaye gaba daya. ”
Abin da ya kara dagula al'amura, kungiyar Tarayyar Turai (EU) ta daura wani matsayi, tare da wasu kasashe da dama, suna masu ikirarin cewa "ba za a yi sulhu a kan rage yawan man da ake hakowa ba," a adawa kai tsaye ga Al Jaber, musamman kamar yadda Adnoc ke shirin kara yawan man fetur. Ganga 600,000 a kowace rana.
Wani kashin da ke kara tada kayar baya shi ne yarjejeniyar bayar da kudade da kasashen da suka ci gaba suka yi wa kasashe matalauta da ba su ci gaba ba, don taimakawa wajen biyan barnar da sauyin yanayi ke yi, wanda ya kai dalar Amurka biliyan 100 a kowace shekara da kasashen da suka ci gaba ke bin su, amma duk da haka akwai manyan alamomin tambaya game da hakikanin kudaden da aka biya da kuma muhimmancin da za a biya. cika alkawari. Wannan ya kamata ya zama babban nasara a COP na ƙarshe amma tattaunawa game da yadda za a aiwatar da shi ya riga ya rushe a tattaunawar farko a Abu Dhabi.
Tuni dai aka fara samun layukan yaki.
Ma'auni don Nasara a COP28
Bisa ga Cibiyar Harkokin Duniya (WRI), COP28 zai sami na farko-har abada Kasuwancin Duniya rahoton, wanda za a gabatar da shi a yayin shari'ar, yana ba da cikakken bayani game da ci gaban da aka samu tun daga yarjejeniyar Paris mai mahimmanci na 2015. Wannan rahoton, wanda aka riga aka buga a watan Satumba, bisa ga WRI, "hakika katin rahoto ne mai lalacewa." Ya kamata ya zama tsarin abin da za a yi, ko ba za a yi ba, ga al'ummomi masu ci gaba.
A cewar WRI: "A COP28, dole ne kasashe su gabatar da shirin mayar da martani cikin gaggawa kan hada-hadar hannayen jari na duniya wanda ke canza kowane babban tsari a duniya cikin sauri da zurfin da ba a taba ganin irinsa ba, tare da inganta rayuwar mutane da kuma ciyar da yanayin adalci."
Nasarar COP28 ta ta'allaka ne kan ko taron ya samu ci gaba a muhimman fannoni hudu:
- Amsa ga hannun jarin Duniya na farko
- Canza tsarin duniya wanda ya haɗa da makamashi, abinci, amfani da ƙasa, da birane.
- Gina juriya don yanke tasirin sauyin yanayi.
- Isar da kuɗin sauyin yanayi ga mafi yawan ƙasashe masu rauni.
Kuma mafi mahimmancin mahimmanci, ana sa ran cewa muhimmin aikin mai zai ɗauki mataki a COP28. Tuni, kasashe da dama sun mai da "kashe albarkatun mai" a matsayin babban makasudin yin shawarwari. Wannan na iya zama ma'aunin nuni.
Haka kuma, bisa ga bayanan da Hukumar Kula da Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA) ta bayar, don kaiwa net zero nan da shekara ta 2050, koren makamashin da ya yi daidai da shi dole ne a hade tare da rage hayakin da ke da alaka da makamashi da gigaton 15 nan da shekarar 2030. Yin la'akari da kamawa da adana carbon (CCS) wani bangare ne na Mix, zai kama 1 kawai na gigatons 15 a ƙarshen wannan shekaru goma. Saboda haka, kuma wannan shine mabuɗin: "A bayyane yake, ba dole ba ne a yi amfani da fasahar kama carbon da adanawa a matsayin uzuri don faɗaɗa samar da mai ko rage sauye-sauye zuwa hanyoyin makamashi masu sabuntawa kamar iska da hasken rana." (IEA)
Ana zargin ingancin kama carbon da dogon tarihin gazawa. "CCS" wata babbar fasaha ce da ta gaza," a cewar Bruce Robertson, wani manazarci kudi na makamashi wanda ya yi nazarin manyan ayyuka a duniya. "Kamfanoni suna kashe biliyoyin daloli akan waɗannan tsire-tsire kuma ba sa aiki daidai da awoyinsu." (Bloomberg, Oktoba 23, 2023)
Masana'antar Burbushin Mai da ake tsammanin 'Alƙawari' a COP28
A cewar Cibiyar Albarkatun Duniya: “Yana da muhimmanci kada wannan taron na Majalisar Ɗinkin Duniya ya kasance dandalin alkawurran da masana’antun man fetur da iskar gas suka yi, waɗanda suka kasa tinkarar ainihin batun da ake ciki. A COP28, ana sa ran Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa za ta ba da sanarwar kudurin a kalla manyan kamfanonin mai da iskar gas 20 na rage kwararar methane da isar da hayakin sifiri nan da shekarar 2050 - amma don ayyukansu kawai, ba don man da suke sayarwa ba. Ta hanyar rashin magance abubuwan da ake kira "Scope 3" na fitar da man da aka samar daga mai da iskar gas da suke hakowa sannan kuma a sayar da su, masana'antar mai da iskar gas suna yin watsi da hayakin da ke haifar da shi. har zuwa 95% na gudunmawar da yake bayarwa ga matsalar yanayi."
Yana da wuri don yanke shawara, amma mutum zai iya ɗauka, tsammani, da kuma ɗauka cewa COP28 ba zai isar da abin da ake buƙata da gaske ba don magance ɗumamar yanayi. Tsammanin "alƙawuran da aka sa ran burbushin mai," kamar yadda aka bayyana a sama, kuma ba wani ƙarin rangwame daga masana'antar burbushin mai, mai yiwuwa COPs na gaba ya kamata a iyakance don magance matakan daidaitawa don haɓaka matakan teku da sauri, kamar yadda za a gina gaske babba, mai ƙarfi, amintaccen shingen teku da sauran matakan tsira.
A zahiri, hakan ya riga ya faru: Sama da ƙasa bakin tekun Amurka, birane daban-daban kamar New York, Charleston, Norfolk, Houston da kuma San Francisco Suna kallon wannan matsalar: Dogayen katangar siminti na iya kare gidaje da kadarori a fasahance daga tashin teku saboda sauyin yanayi, amma shawarwarin na da matukar fa'ida har wasu mazauna yankin suna kin su… misali, a Texas mai arzikin mai. aikin $29bn Shirye-shiryen don Galveston, Texas. (Madogararsa: Mazauna bakin teku Suna Tsoron 'Hideous' Seawalls Za su Toshe Ra'ayin Ruwa, The Guardian, Janairu 2023)
Don haka, gaskiyar canjin yanayi / zafi na duniya ya riga ya bayyana kasancewarsa ta hanyar lalata ra'ayoyin ruwa a inda mutane masu arziki ke zaune. Kawai mamakin lokacin da kamfanonin gine-ginen teku za su yi IPOs akan Wall Street?
A matsayin gabatarwa ga COP28, ya kamata a lura cewa COPs da suka gabata sun jaddada mahimmancin cimma iyaka ga dumamar yanayi na 1.5 ° C kafin masana'antu. A cewar MIT, a nan ne matsayin IPCC: "Don hana tabarbarewa da kuma yuwuwar tasirin canjin yanayi, matsakaicin zafin duniya bai kamata ya wuce na zamanin masana'antu da fiye da digiri 1.5 Celsius (digiri 2.7 Fahrenheit). (Madogararsa: Bayyana: 1.5C Climate Benchmark, MIT Labarai, Agusta 27, 2023)
Don cimma wannan, dole ne a cika alamomin mahimmin nan da 2030 da 2050 dangane da rage hayaki da ƙoƙarce-ƙoƙarce. A cewar IPCC: Iskar iskar gas a duniya dole ne ya kai kololuwa nan da shekarar 2025 kuma a rage shi da kashi 43 nan da shekarar 2030 don cimma abin da bai wuce 1.5°C kafin masana'antu ba.
Menene farashin? Da fatan za a zauna… bisa ga haka, “Bloomberg NEF, ƙungiyar binciken makamashi ta Bloomberg, ƙiyas a cikin wani sabon rahoto a wannan makon zai iya kashe dala tiriliyan 196 a cikin saka hannun jari don kawar da hayaƙin carbon a duniya nan da 2050, kamar yadda ƙasashe da yawa suka yi alkawarin yin, don guje wa dumamar yanayi da ke lalata al'umma." (Source: Ana Bukatar Dala Tiriliyan 200 Don Dakatar da Dumuwar Duniya. Wannan ciniki ne, Bloomberg, Yuli 5, 2023)
Kuma, a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci: "BNEF ya ba da shawarar zuba jari na kore na shekara-shekara zai buƙaci kusan ninki uku zuwa dala tiriliyan 6.9 nan da shekara ta 2030 idan har muna da wani begen buga sifiri nan da shekarar 2050. Wannan zai hada da gwamnatoci, ‘yan kasuwa, da masu amfani da wutar lantarki da za su musanya mafi yawan motocin da ke amfani da iskar gas a duniya zuwa masu amfani da wutar lantarki, gina tashoshin caji na wadannan motocin, da kuma maye gurbin burbushin halittu. makamashi mai ƙarfi tare da iska, hasken rana, da sauran abubuwan sabuntawa, tare da sabbin grid don haɗa su duka,” Ibid.
Duk da haka, a cikin adawa kai tsaye ga nazarin BNEF, bisa ga sabon rahoton Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, da yawa daga cikin $ 6.9B za a kashe su kuma ba za a yi watsi da su ba, da zaton cewa ya faru da gaske, wanda ke da shakka, amma ba tare da la'akari ba, ga burbushin man fetur na 2030: "Shirye-shiryen (na kamfanonin mai) zai kai ga samar da 460% karin kwal, 83% karin iskar gas, da 29% karin mai a cikin 2030 fiye da yadda za a iya konewa idan ana so a kiyaye tashin zafin duniya zuwa 1.5C na duniya. Tsare-tsaren kuma za su samar da ƙarin kaso 69% fiye da wanda ya dace da maƙasudin 2C mai haɗari." (Madogararsa: 'Hauka: Petrostates Suna Tsara Babban Fadada Man Fetur, In ji Rahoton Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, The Guardian, Nov.8, 2023)
A halin yanzu, hatsarori na ɗumamar ɗumamar wuce gona da iri ba sa jira a ga COPs na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya don yanke shawarar abin da ya fi dacewa ga yanayin rayuwar ɗan adam. Tsarin yanayi na duniya yana kan hanya mai sauri, yana canzawa a gaban idanunmu. Shekaru biyu da suka gabata ne NPR (Rediyon Jama'a ta kasa) ta bayyana cewa: “Ta hanyar iyakance dumamar duniya zuwa digiri 1.5, ko 2.7 Fahrenheit, nan da shekara ta 2100, begen shi ne a kawar da mummunan rugujewar yanayi wanda zai iya ta'azzara yunwa, rikici, da fari a duniya” d/d Nuwamba 8, 2021. Da gaske???
Yaya sauri abubuwa ke canzawa!
Alas, ba abin mamaki ba ne ga mutane "a cikin sani" cewa dumamar yanayi an saita zuwa busa duk alamomi, hanyar gaba da jadawalin, a gaskiya, a cikin shekaru biyu: Dr. James Hansen's latest takarda (Cibiyar Duniya, Jami'ar Columbia): Yadda Muka San Cewa ɗumamar Duniya tana Haɗawa kuma Manufar Yarjejeniyar Paris ta mutu, Nuwamba 10, 2023, ya shiga daki-daki game da hujjoji na gaskiya kuma ya faɗi a sarari: “A cikin ƙasa da shekaru goma, dole ne mu yi tsammanin 0.4 × 0.25 × 4°C = 0.4°C ƙarin dumama. Idan aka yi la’akari da dumamar yanayi na 0.95C a shekarar 2010, dumamar yanayi ta 2030 zai kasance kusan 0.95°C + 2×0.18°C + 0.4°C = 1.71°C. Za a kai ga dumamar yanayi na 2°C a ƙarshen 2030s."
(Shekaru talatin da biyar da suka wuce, Dr. James Hansen, darektan Cibiyar Nazarin Sararin Samaniya ta NASA ya yi gargadin: Dumamar Duniya Ta Fara, Kwararre ya fadawa majalisar dattawa, New York Times, Yuni 24, 1988).
A halin da ake ciki, shekaru biyu da suka gabata ne labarai na yau da kullun suka yi gargaɗi game da riƙe "iyakar zafin duniya zuwa 1.5 ° C kafin masana'antu ta 2100." Ba abin mamaki ba ne mutane suka yi natsuwa game da illar da ke tattare da dumamar yanayi. Da alama ba za a yi rayuwa ba. Amma, oops, yana kusa da kusurwa. Dangane da hujja, tsarin yanayi yana aiki kamar bijimin daji akan steroids. Kuma wannan shine abin da ke faruwa a labaran talabijin a ƙarshen zamani, a kowace nahiya. Yana da duniya, manya-manyan ambaliya, m fari, m gobara, m hadari.
Zai yi muni. Ga dalilin da ya sa: "Masu bincike sun gano cewa rashin daidaituwar makamashin duniya ya ninka sau biyu a cikin shekaru 14 daga 2005 zuwa 2019." (Madogararsa: Hadin gwiwar NASA, Nazarin NOAA Ya Gano Rashin Ma'aunin Makamashi na Duniya ya ninka, NASA, Yuni 15, 2021) A cewar masana kimiyyar yanayi: Wannan ci gaba ne mai ban mamaki, wanda ke nuna matsala mai tsanani a cikin layi. Yana bayyana rikicin albedo. A wannan adadin, manta da 1.5 ° C ta 2100; Fatan mu da addu'a mu isa can. (Duba ra'ayi mai kyau: SEA: Sanyaya Duniya Ta Hanyar Nuna Hasken Rana).
“Iyakar matakin digiri 1.5 ya mutu fiye da farcen kofa,” Hansen, yanzu darekta a Cibiyar Duniya a Jami’ar Columbia, ya ce a wata kira da manema labarai suka yi a ranar Alhamis. A cikin watanni da yawa masu zuwa, za mu yi kyau sama da 1.5C (Celsius) akan matsakaicin watanni 12. ... A cikin sauran shekaru goman nan, matsakaita zai kasance aƙalla 1.5." (Shahararren Masanin Kimiyyar Yanayi Yana da Sabon, Hasashen Hasashen, The Washington Post, Nuwamba 2, 2023)
COP28 dole ne ya cire abin al'ajabi.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
Bada Tallafi