Kuningi okuzozuzwa ngokubuka le nhlekelele yamanje njengokuqhuma komhlaba okudalwe ekushintsheni okujulile kwe-tectonic esimweni se-spatio-temporal sokuthuthukiswa konxiwankulu. Amapuleti e-tectonic manje asheshisa ukunyakaza kwawo futhi amathuba okuba nezinkinga ezivame kakhulu nezinodlame kakhulu zalolu hlobo ebezisenzeka kusukela ngo-1980 noma ngaphezulu cishe azokwanda. Indlela, isimo, indawo kanye nesikhathi salokhu kuphazamiseka okungaphezulu cishe akunakwenzeka ukubikezela, kodwa ukuthi kuzokwenzeka ngokuvama okukhulu nokujula cishe kuqinisekile. Ngakho-ke izehlakalo zika-2008 kufanele zibe ngaphansi kwephethini ejulile. Njengoba lezi zingcindezi zingaphakathi ku-capitalist dynamic (okungavimbeli isigameko esibonakala siphazamisa ngaphandle njengobhadane oluyinhlekelele esenzekayo), khona-ke iyiphi impikiswano engcono engaba khona, njengoba uMarx ake akubeka, โukuba ubunxiwankulu buphele futhi indlela yokukhiqiza ehlukile futhi enengqondo. โ
Ngiqala ngalesi siphetho njengoba ngisakuthola kubalulekile ukugcizelela uma ngingalingisanga, njengoba bengilokhu ngifuna ukwenza njalo emibhalweni yami eminyakeni edlule, ukuthi ukwehluleka ukuqonda ukuguquguquka kwezindawo zonxiwankulu noma ukuphatha isimo sendawo njenge ngomqondo othile nje okuncikene noma okwedlulele, ukulahlekelwa kokubili yisakhiwo sendlela yokuqonda ukuthuthuka konxiwankulu okungalingani kwezindawo kanye nokuphuthelwa amathuba okwakha ezinye izindlela eziqinile. Kepha lokhu kudala ubunzima obukhulu bokuhlaziya njengoba sihlala sibhekene nokuzama ukuhlakaza imigomo yendawo yonke mayelana neqhaza lokukhiqizwa kwezikhala, izindawo kanye nezindawo eziguquguqukayo zonxiwankulu, olwandle oluvame ukuguquguquka. Ngakho-ke, singakuhlanganisa kanjani ukuqonda kwezwe emibonweni yethu yokuguquguquka kokuziphendukela kwemvelo? Ake sibheke ngokucophelela izinguquko ze-tectonic.
NgoNovemba 2008, ngemva nje kokukhethwa kukaMongameli omusha, iNational Intelligence Council of the I-united states ikhiphe izilinganiso zayo ze-Delphic ngokuthi umhlaba uzoba njani ngo-2025. Mhlawumbe ngokokuqala ngqa, indikimba esemthethweni I-united states wabikezela ukuthi ngo-2025 i-United States, nakuba isenamandla uma ingeyena umdlali oyedwa onamandla kunabo bonke ezindabeni zomhlaba, ngeke isakwazi ukubusa. Umhlaba ubuzoba ne-multi-polar futhi ungagxili kakhulu futhi amandla abadlali abangewona abombuso azokwanda. Umbiko wakuvuma lokho US i-hegemony yayilokhu incipha futhi iphuma isikhathi eside kodwa ukuthi ukubusa kwayo kwezomnotho, ezombusazwe kanye nezempi manje kwase kuyancipha ngokuhlelekile. Ngaphezu kwakho konke (futhi kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi umbiko walungiswa ngaphambi kokufakwa kwe- US kanye nezimiso zezimali zaseBrithani), โushintsho olungakaze lubonwe engcebweni namandla ezomnotho cishe lusuka eNtshonalanga luye eMpumalanga oluqhubekayo manje luzoqhubeka.โ
Lolu โguquko olungakaze lubonwe ngaphambiliโ lubuyisele emuva ukuchithwa kwengcebo okwase kunesikhathi eside isuka eMpumalanga, eNingizimu-mpumalanga naseNingizimu ye-Asia iye eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika ebiyenzeka kusukela ngekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalombili (imfucuza ngisho no-Adam Smith ayeyibonile ngokuzisola Umcebo Wezizwe kodwa okwakhula ngesivinini ngokungaphezi phakathi nekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalolunye). Ukudlondlobala kweJapan ngeminyaka yawo-1960 kwalandelwa yiSouth Korea, Taiwan, Singapore kanye neHong Kong ngeminyaka yawo-1970 kanye nokukhula ngokushesha kweShayina ngemuva kuka-1980 kamuva okuhambisana nokuthuthuka kwezimboni e-Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Thailand kanye neMalaysia ngeminyaka yawo-1990. yashintsha isizinda somfutho wentuthuko yonxiwankulu, nakuba ingenzanga kahle kangako (inkinga yezimali yaseMpumalanga naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ka-1997-8 yabona ingcebo igeleza kafushane kodwa yabuyela ngamandla ibheke kuWall Street kanye namabhange ase-Europe naseJapane). Ukuqina kwezomnotho kubonakala kusondela kwamanye amandla e-East Asia futhi uma izinxushunxushu, njengoba sake saphikisana ngaphambili, ziyizikhathi zokuhlela kabusha okukhulu ekuthuthukisweni konxiwankulu, khona-ke iqiniso lokuthi i-United States kufanele ishodelwe ngezimali indlela yayo yokuphuma kwezezimali. ubunzima ngezinga elikhulu kangaka nokuthi okushodayo kuvalwe yilawo mazwe anemali enqwabelene elondoloziwe - iJapan, iChina, iSouth Korea, iTaiwan kanye nezifunda zaseGulf - kuphakamisa ukuthi lesi kungaba yisikhathi sokuthi lolu shintsho luhlanganiswe.
Izinguquko zalolu hlobo zenzekile phambilini emlandweni omude wobunxiwankulu. Ku-akhawunti ephelele kaGiovanni Arrighi ku Ikhulu Lamashumi Amabili Elide, sibona i-hegemony isuka ezifundeni zedolobha laseGenoa neVenice ngekhulu leshumi nesithupha kuya e-Amsterdam Namazwe Aphansi ekhulwini leshumi nesikhombisa ngaphambi kokugxila eBrithani kusukela ngasekupheleni kwekhulu leshumi nesishiyagalombili kwaze kwaba yilapho i-United States igcina ithathe izintambo ngemva kuka-1945. izici zalezi zinguquko ezigcizelelwa ngu-Arrighi futhi ezifanele ekuhlaziyeni kwethu. Ushintsho ngalunye, amanothi ka-Arrighi, lwenzeka ngemva kwesigaba esinamandla sokwenza imali (ucaphuna ngokugunyazwa isimiselo sikaBraudel sokuthi ukufakwa kwezimali kumemezela ukwindla kokunye ukucushwa kwe-hegemonic). Kodwa ukuguquguquka ngakunye kuphinde kufake noshintsho olukhulu lwesikali, ukusuka ezifundazweni zamadolobha amancane ekuqaleni ukuya emnothweni wezwekazi lonke. I-united states engxenyeni yokugcina yekhulu lamashumi amabili. Lokhu kuguqulwa kwesikali kunengqondo uma kubhekwa umthetho wonxiwankulu wokuqongelela okungapheli kanye nokukhula okuyinhlanganisela okungenani okungamaphesenti amathathu kuze kube phakade. Kodwa ama-hegemonic shifts, u-Arrighi uthi, akunqunywa kusengaphambili. Zincike ekuveleni kwamanye amandla akwaziyo kwezomnotho nakwezombangazwe nakwezempi azimisele ukuthatha indima ye-global hegemon (nezindleko zayo kanye nezinzuzo zayo). Ukungabaza kwe-United States ukuthatha leyo ndima ngaphambi kweMpi Yezwe II kwakusho ukuhlangana kwezingxabano ezihlukene zomhlaba ezingakwazi ukumisa ukukhukhuleka empini (iBrithani yayingasenawo amandla okufakazela indima yayo yangaphambili ye-hegemonic). Okuningi futhi kuncike ekutheni i-hegemon edlule iziphatha kanjani njengoba ibhekene nokuncipha kwendima yayo yangaphambili. Kungadlulela ngokuthula noma ngobudlova emlandweni. Kusukela kulo mbono iqiniso lokuthi i-United States isaphethe amandla ezempi amangalisayo (ikakhulukazi ukusuka kumafidi angama-30,000 ukuya phezulu) esimweni samandla ayo ezomnotho nezezimali anciphayo kanye negunya elintengantengayo lamasiko nokuziphatha, kudala izimo ezikhathazayo zanoma yiluphi ushintsho oluzayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, akusobala ukuthi umuntu ongenele ukhetho olukhulu lokususa i-United States, i-China, unamandla noma uzimisele ukugomela indima ethile ye-hegemonic, ngoba nakuba inani labantu bakhona likhulu ngokwanele ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zokushintsha isikali, hhayi umnotho noma igunya layo lezombangazwe (noma ngisho nentando yalo yezombangazwe) likhomba kunoma yikuphi ukungena kalula endimeni ye-hegemon yomhlaba wonke. Uma kubhekwa ukwehlukana kobuzwe okukhona, umqondo wokuthi inhlangano ethile ye-East Asian Powers ingase yenze lo msebenzi nayo ibonakala ingenakwenzeka njengoba kwenza i-European Union ehlukene futhi ehlakazekayo noma lokho okubizwa ngokuthi amandla e-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India futhi China) ukuhlala endleleni evamile isikhathi eside. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, isibikezelo sokuthi sibheke kwenye i-interregnum yezintshisekelo eziningi ze-polar nezingxabano kanye nokuntengantenga komhlaba okungaba khona kubonakala kungenangqondo.
Ukushintsha kweTectonic
Kodwa i-tectonic iyashintsha I-united states ukubusa kanye nokubusa osekunesikhathi kuqhubeka kuqhubeka kuya ngokucaca kakhulu. Inkolelo-mbono yakho kokubili ukwenza imali ngokweqile kanye โnesikweletu njengesibikezelo esiyinhloko sokuwohloka kwemibuso emikhulu yomhlabaโ ithole izwi elidumile emibhalweni kaKevin Phillips. Imizamo eqhubekayo manje yokwakha kabusha ukubusa kwe-U.S. ngezinguquko ekwakhiweni kwenhlangano yezwe kanye neyomhlaba jikelele yezezimali zezwe ibonakala ingasebenzi ngenkathi okushiyelwa kubekwe ingxenye enkulu yomhlaba ekufuneni ukubumba kabusha lokho. Izakhiwo cishe ziqinisekile ukuthi zizovusa ukuphikiswa okuqinile uma kungenjalo izingxabano zezomnotho ezisobala.
Kodwa izinguquko ze-tectonic zalolu hlobo aziveli njengokungathi ngomlingo. Nakuba i-geography yomlando we-hegemony eguqukayo njengoba u-Arrighi eyichaza inephethini ecacile futhi nakuba kucacile emlandweni womlando ukuthi izikhathi zokwenza imali zandulela amashifu anjalo, i-Arrighi ayinikezi noma yikuphi ukuhlaziywa okujulile kwezinqubo ezikhiqiza amashifu anjalo indawo yokuqala. Ukuqiniseka, ucaphuna "ukuqoqwa okungapheli" ngakho-ke isifo sokukhula (umthetho wokukhula okuhlanganisiwe ongamaphesenti amathathu) njengokubalulekile ekuchazeni amashifu. Lokhu kusho ukuthi i-hegemony isuka kokuncane (isb. Venice) kuya kokukhudlwana (isib I-united states) izinhlangano zezepolitiki ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Futhi kunengqondo ukuthi i-hegemony kufanele ilele kulelo bhizinisi lezombusazwe lapho ingxenye enkulu yensalela ikhiqizwa khona (noma lapho okuningi okusalayo kugeleza ngendlela yentela noma i-imperialist extractions). Njengoba isamba semali esiphuma emhlabeni wonke simi ku-$45-trillion kusukela ngo-2005, isabelo sase-U.S. sika-$15-trillion kwenze, njengokungathi, umnikazi wamasheya ovelele nolawulayo ku-capitalism yomhlaba wonke akwazi ukusho (njengoba evame ukwenza endimeni yawo njenge umnikazi wamasheya omkhulu ezikhungweni zamazwe ngamazwe njengeBhange Lomhlaba kanye ne-IMF) izinqubomgomo zomhlaba jikelele. Umbiko we-NCIS ngokwengxenye usekelwe ekubikezelweni kwawo ekulahlekeni kokubusa kodwa ukugcinwa kwesimo esiqinile ekwabeni kwesabelo esiwayo somkhiqizo womhlaba jikelele US isihlobo somhlaba wonke jikelele kanye China ngokuqondene.
Kepha njengoba u-Arrighi esho, ipolitiki yoshintsho olunjalo ayiqinisekile nakancane. I-United States yafaka isicelo sokubusa umhlaba wonke ngaphansi kuka-Woodrow Wilson phakathi nangemva nje kweMpi Yezwe I yavinjelwa ukukhetha kwezombusazwe kwasekhaya e-United States ngokuzihlukanisa (okungakho ukuwa kweNhlangano Yezizwe) futhi kwaba kuphela ngemva kweMpi Yezwe II (okwakuyiyo. inani labantu base-US lalimelene nokungena kwaze kwaba yilapho kwenzeka iPearl Harbour) lapho i-US yamukela indima yayo njenge-hegemon yomhlaba wonke ngokusebenzisa inqubomgomo yezangaphandle ye-bi-partisan esekelwe Izivumelwano ze-Bretton Woods mayelana nokuthi uhlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe lwangemva kweMpi lwaluzohlelwa kanjani (ebusweni Impi Yomshoshaphansi kanye nokubhebhetheka kosongo konxiwankulu bobukhomanisi bamazwe ngamazwe). Ukuthi I-united states kwase kuyisikhathi eside ikhula ibe yisimo lapho isimiso esingadlala indima ye-hegemon yomhlaba wonke sibonakala kusukela ezinsukwini zakuqala. Yayinezimfundiso ezifanele, njengokuthi โManifest Destinyโ (ukunwetshwa kwezwekazi okubanzi okwagcina kukapakele ePacific naseCaribbean ngaphambi kokuya emhlabeni wonke ngaphandle kokuthathwa kwendawo) noma iMonroe Doctrine eyaxwayisa Amandla AseYurophu ukuthi ashiye amazwe aseMelika eyedwa (imfundiso empeleni yayiyiwo. eyakhiwe nguNobhala Wezangaphandle waseBrithani u-Canning ngeminyaka yawo-1820 kodwa yamukelwa yi-U.S. njengeyayo cishe ngokushesha). I I-united states wayenamandla adingekayo ukuze aziphendulele ngesabelo esikhulayo somkhiqizo womhlaba futhi wayezinikele ngokuphelele ohlotsheni oluthile lwalokho okungabizwa kangcono ngokuthi "imakethe ekhoneni" noma "ubuxhakaxhaka" obusekelwa umbono wokuzicabangela komuntu ngamunye. Ngakho kukhona umuzwa wokuthi US kwaku, kuwo wonke umlando wayo, izilungiselela ukuthatha indima ye-hegemon yomhlaba wonke. Okumangazayo nje ukuthi kwathatha isikhathi eside ukwenza lokho nokuthi kwaba eyesibili kuneMpi Yezwe Yokuqala eyaholela ekugcineni ukuba ibambe iqhaza ishiya iminyaka yezimpi phakathi kweminyaka yempi ehlukahlukene kanye nesiphithiphithi esiqhudelanayo izifiso zombuso uhlobo olusaba ukuthi umbiko we-NCIS uzoba yisimo ngo-2025.
Uguquko lwe-tectonic oluqhubekayo manje luthonywa kakhulu, nokho, ukungalingani kwezindawo ngokwezomnotho namathuba ezepolitiki okusabela kule nkinga yamanje. Ake ngibonise ukuthi lokhu kungalingani kusebenza kanjani manje ngendlela yesibonelo esibambekayo. Njengoba ukudangala okwaqala ngo-2007 kuya kushuba, impikiswano yenziwa abaningi ngokuthi isixazululo esigcwele saseKeynesian sasidingeka ukuze kukhishwe ubunxiwankulu bomhlaba wonke obishini olwalukuyo. Ukuze kufezeke lokhu kwahlongozwa amaphakheji ahlukahlukene okukhuthaza kanye nezindlela zokuqinisa amabhange futhi kwabanye. iziqu ezithathwe emazweni ahlukene ngezindlela ezahlukene ngethemba lokuthi lezi zizoxazulula ubunzima. Izinhlobonhlobo zezixazululo ezinikezwayo zahlukahluka kakhulu kuye ngezimo zezomnotho kanye nezindlela ezikhona zombono wezepolitiki (umgodi, isibonelo, Germany ngokumelene eBrithani futhi France ku-European Union). Cabangela, nokho, amathuba ahlukene ezepolitiki kwezomnotho ku I-united states futhi China kanye nemiphumela engaba khona yakho kokubili i-hegemony eshintshayo kanye nendlela inkinga engase ixazululwe ngayo.
In the I-united states, noma yimuphi umzamo wokuthola isisombululo esanele saseKeynesian uye wabhujiswa ekuqaleni ngezithiyo eziningi zezomnotho nezombangazwe cishe okungenakwenzeka ukuzinqoba. Isixazululo se-Keynesian singadinga uxhaso lwezimali olukhulu futhi olude uma luzophumelela. Kuye kwaphikiswa kahle ukuthi umzamo kaRoosevelt wokubuyela esabelweni sezimali esilinganisiwe ngo-1937-8 wafaka i-United States emuva ekucindezelekeni, ngakho-ke, yiMpi Yezwe II eyasindisa lesi simo hhayi indlela kaRoosevelt enamahloni kakhulu yokushoda kwezimali Idili Entsha. Ngakho-ke noma ngabe izinguquko zesikhungo kanye nokuphushela inqubomgomo yokulingana kwabeka izisekelo zokululama ngemuva kweMpi Yezwe II, i-New Deal ngokwayo yehlulekile ukuxazulula inkinga I-united states.
Inkinga ye-United States ngo-2008-9 ukuthi iqala esikhundleni sokuhlala ezikweletini emhlabeni wonke (ibiboleka ngenani elingaphezu kwezigidigidi ezimbili zamaRandi ngosuku eminyakeni eyishumi edlule noma ngaphezulu) futhi lokhu kubeka umkhawulo wezomnotho kusayizi wesikweletu esengeziwe esingase sibe khona manje. (Lokhu kwakungeyona inkinga enkulu kuRoosevelt owaqala ngesabelomali esilinganiselwe). Kuphinde kube nomkhawulo wezombangazwe njengoba ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwanoma yikuphi ukushoda okwengeziwe kuncike ekuzimiseleni kwamanye amandla (ikakhulukazi avela eMpumalanga Asia kanye Gulf States) ukuboleka. Kuzo zombili lezi zibalo, isikhuthazo somnotho esitholakalayo I-united states cishe ngeke libe likhulu ngokwanele noma liqine ngokwanele ukuba likwazi ukwenza umsebenzi wokulungisa kabusha umnotho. Le nkinga ibhebhethekiswa ukungabaza kwemibono ohlangothini lwawo womabili amaqembu ezepolitiki ukwamukela isamba esikhulu semali eshodayo ezodingeka, okuxakayo ngokwengxenye ngoba abaphathi bangaphambilini beRiphabhulikhi basebenze ngomgomo kaDick Cheney wokuthi โuReagan wasifundisa ukuthi ukushoda akukwenzi. okubalulekile.โ Njengo-Paul Krugman, ummeli womphakathi oholayo wesixazululo se-Keynesian, omunye uphikisene, ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-800 avotela ngokunqikaza yiCongress ngo-2009, nakuba ingcono kunalutho, ayisondele ngokwanele. Kungase kuthathe okuthile ku-oda ku-$2-trillion ukwenza umsebenzi futhi lokho kuyisikweletu eseqile uma kuqhathaniswa nalapho US kushoda manje. Okuwukuphela kwenketho yezomnotho engenzeka, kungaba ukufaka esikhundleni se-Keynesianism ebuthakathaka yezindleko zezempi ngokweqile nge-Keynesianism enamandla kakhulu yezinhlelo zenhlalo. Ukusika i US isabelomali sokuvikela ngesigamu (sisilethe sihambisane naleyo ye Europe maqondana nenani le-GDP) kungasiza ngokobuchwepheshe kodwa kungaba, vele, ukuzibulala kwezepolitiki, uma kubhekwa isimo seqembu leRepublican Party kanye namaDemocrat amaningi, kunoma ngubani okuhlongozayo.
Umgoqo wesibili ungowezepolitiki kuphela. Ukuze kusebenze, isikhuthazo kufanele siphathwe ngendlela ezoqinisekisa ukuthi sizosetshenziswa ezimpahleni nasezinkonzweni futhi ngaleyo ndlela umnotho uthuthuke futhi. Lokhu kusho ukuthi noma yikuphi ukukhululeka kumele kuqondiswe kwabazoyichitha, okusho ukuthi abaphansi, ngoba ngisho abaphakathi uma beyichitha basuke bejwayele ukuyichitha ekubhideleni ama-asethi (ukuthenga izindlu ezidliwe. , ngokwesibonelo), esikhundleni sokwandisa ukuthenga kwabo kwezimpahla namasevisi. Kunoma ikuphi, uma izikhathi zizimbi abantu abaningi bazovame ukusebenzisa noma iyiphi imali eyengeziwe abayitholayo ukuze bayeke isikweletu noma bonge (njengoba kwenzeka kakhulu ngesaphulelo sika-$600 esaklanywa uBush Administration ekuqaleni kwehlobo lika-2008).
Okubonakala kuwubuhlakani futhi kunengqondo ngokombono wekhaya kukhombisa kabi emnothweni wonkana (ngendlela efanayo namabhange athathe ngayo imali yomphakathi ayiqongelele noma ayisebenzisele ukuthenga impahla kunokuboleka). Ubutha obukhona e-United States "bokusabalalisa ingcebo nxazonke" kanye nokuphatha noma yiluphi uhlobo losizo ngaphandle kokuncishiswa kwentela kubantu ngabanye, luvela emfundisweni eqinile ye-neoliberal ideological (egxile kodwa engagcini nje kwi-Republican Party) ukuthi "Imindeni iyazi kangcono." Lezi zimfundiso zamukelwe kabanzi njengevangeli ngumphakathi waseMelika wonkana ngemva kweminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amathathu yokufundiswa kwezombusazwe kwe-neoliberal. Thina, njengoba ngike ngaphikisa kwenye indawo, โsonke ama-neoliberal manjeโ ingxenye enkulu singazi. Kukhona ukwamukelwa buthule, isibonelo, ukuthi "ukucindezela amaholo" - ingxenye eyinhloko yenkinga yamanje - isimo "esivamile" sezindaba I-united states. Omunye wemilenze emithathu yesixazululo se-Keynesian, ukunikwa amandla okukhulu kwabasebenzi, ukukhuphuka kwamaholo kanye nokwabiwa kabusha ukuya ezigabeni eziphansi akunakwenzeka ngokwezombangazwe e-United States ngalesi sikhathi. Yona kanye icala lokuthi olunye uhlelo olunjalo lufana ne "socialism" luthumela ukuthuthumela kokwesaba ngenhlangano yezombangazwe. Abasebenzi abanamandla ngokwanele (emva kweminyaka engamashumi amathathu behlukunyezwa amandla ezombusazwe) futhi akukho nhlangano ebanzi yezenhlalakahle ekhona ezophoqa ukwabiwa kabusha kwezigaba zabasebenzi.
Enye indlela yokufeza imigomo ye-Keynesian, ukuhlinzeka ngezimpahla ezihlangene. Lokhu ngokwesiko bekubandakanya ukutshalwa kwezimali kuzo zombili izingqalasizinda ezibonakalayo nezenhlalo (izinhlelo ze-WPA zama-1930s zandulelayo). Ngakho-ke umzamo wokufaka ezinhlelweni zephakeji yokuvuselela ukuze kwakhiwe kabusha futhi kwandiswe ingqalasizinda yezokuthutha nezokuxhumana, amandla kanye neminye imisebenzi yomphakathi kanye nokwenyuka kwezindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo, imfundo, izinsiza zikamasipala, nokunye okunjalo. Lezi zimpahla ezihlangene zinamandla okukhiqiza iziphindaphinda zokuqashwa kanye nesidingo esisebenzayo sezimpahla namasevisi ezengeziwe. Kodwa kucatshangwa ukuthi lezi zimpahla ezihlangene, esikhathini esithile, zizoba ngaphansi kwesigaba "sezindleko zezwe ezikhiqizayo" (okungukuthi zikhuthaze ukukhula okwengeziwe) kunokuba zibe uchungechunge "lwezindlovu ezimhlophe" zomphakathi, njengoba uKeynes asho kudala. , kwakungelutho ngaphandle kokwenza abantu basebenze bemba imisele baphinde bayigcwalise. Ngamanye amazwi, isu lokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda kufanele liqondiswe ekuvuseleleni ukukhula okungamaphesenti amathathu ngokusebenzisa, isibonelo, ukuklama kabusha okuhlelekile kwengqalasizinda yethu yasemadolobheni kanye nezindlela zokuphila. Lokhu ngeke kusebenze ngaphandle kokuhlela kwezwe okuyinkimbinkimbi kanye nesisekelo esikhona esikhiqizayo esingasebenzisa ukulungiselelwa kwengqalasizinda entsha. Nalapha, futhi, umlando omude wangaphambili wokuyeka ukusebenza kwezimboni e-United States kanye nokuphikisana okukhulu kwemibono yokuhlela umbuso (izakhi ezafakwa ku-New Deal ka-Roosevelt futhi eyaqhubeka ngeminyaka yawo-1960 kodwa yashiywa lapho kubhekene nokuhlaselwa kwe-neoliberal phezu. lokho kusetshenziswa okuthile kwamandla ombuso ngeminyaka yawo-1980) kanye nokuthandwa okusobala kokuncishiswa kwentela kunoguquko lwengqalasizinda kwenza ukuphishekela isixazululo esigcwele saseKeynesian konke kungenzeki e-United States.
In China, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kokubili izimo zezomnotho nezombusazwe zikhona lapho isisombululo esigcwele saseKeynesian singenzeka ngempela futhi lapho kunezibonakaliso eziningi zokuthi le ndlela cishe izolandelwa. Okokuqala, China inenqwaba yemali enqwabelene yemali yangaphandle futhi kulula ukukweleta ngezimali ngaleso sisekelo kunokuba kunjalo ngokweqa kwesikweletu esikhulu esivele sikhona njengoba kwenzeka e I-united states. Kubalulekile futhi ukuqaphela ukuthi kusukela maphakathi nawo-1990 "impahla enobuthi" (imalimboleko engasebenzi) yamabhange aseShayina (ezinye izilinganiso ziwabeka phezulu ngamaphesenti angama-40 azo zonke izikweletu ngo-2000) ziye zasulwa emabhange' izincwadi ngokufakwa ngezikhathi ezithile kwemali enqwabelene evela ezindaweni zokushintshisana zangaphandle. AmaShayina abe nokulingana isikhathi eside kohlelo lwe-TARP ku I-united states futhi ngokusobala bayazi ukuthi kwenziwa kanjani (ngisho noma imisebenzi eminingi ingcoliswe inkohlakalo). AmaShayina anomnotho wokuzibandakanya ohlelweni olukhulu lokushoda kwezimali futhi anesakhiwo sezimali sikahulumeni esimaphakathi ukuze alawule lolo hlelo ngempumelelo uma ekhathalela ukulusebenzisa. Amabhange, obekade engaphansi kukahulumeni isikhathi eside, kungenzeka ukuthi amabhizinisi azimele ngokwegama lakhe ukuze anelise izidingo ze-WTO kanye nokuheha imali kanye nobuchule bangaphandle, kodwa asengagoba kalula ekuthandeni kombuso omaphakathi kanti I-united states ngisho nokuncane okungaqondakali kokuqondisa kombuso ingasaphathwa eyokuthi kube ngaphansi kombuso kudala isiphithiphithi sepolitiki.
Kanjalo futhi awukho nhlobo umgoqo wokucabanga ekwabiweni kabusha kwezomnotho ezingxenyeni ezidinga kakhulu zomphakathi nakuba kungase kube nezithakazelo ezithile zamalungu eqembu elicebile kanye nesigaba sonxiwankulu abasafufusa okufanele sinqotshwe. Icala lokuthi lokhu kuzofana ne "socialism" noma okubi nakakhulu "ubukhomanisi" kungamane kubingelelwe ngokuzijabulisa China. Kodwa eShayina ukuvela kwenqwaba yokuntuleka kwemisebenzi (embikweni wokugcina kwakucatshangwa ukuthi abantu abangaba izigidi ezingu-20 abangasebenzi ngenxa yokwehla kwejubane) kanye nezimpawu zokubhebhetheka kwezinxushunxushu zomphakathi ezidlangile futhi ezikhula ngokushesha zizocindezela iQembu LamaKhomanisi ekwabiweni kabusha okukhulu. kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ngokwengqondo bakhathazekile ukwenza kanjalo noma cha. Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2009, lokhu kwabonakala kuqondiswe okokuqala ekuvuseleleni izindawo zasemakhaya ezisalelayo lapho abasebenzi abaningi bokufika abangasebenzi ababuyele kuzo bekhungathekile ngenxa yokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi ezindaweni zokukhiqiza. Kulezi zifunda lapho ingqalasizinda yezenhlalo neyomzimba iphelelwa isikhathi, ukwesekwa okuqinile kukahulumeni kuzokhuphula imali engenayo, kwandise isidingo esisebenzayo futhi kuqale ngenqubo ende yokuhlanganisa. China's imakethe yangaphakathi.
Okwesibili, kunesibikezelo esinamandla sokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda okusasilela. China (kanti ukwehliswa kwentela akunaso isikhalazo sezepolitiki). Nakuba ezinye zalezi zingase zibe "izindlovu ezimhlophe" mancane kakhulu amathuba okuba wenziwe umsebenzi wokuhlanganisa indawo kazwelonke yaseShayina ukuze kubhekwane nenkinga yokungalingani kwentuthuko yezindawo phakathi kwezifunda ezisogwini eziphakeme. ukuthuthukiswa kanye nezifundazwe zangaphakathi ezimpofu. Ukuba khona kwesizinda sezimboni kanye nesezimboni esinezinkathazo esidinga ukulungiswa kwendawo, kwenza kube lula ukuthi umzamo waseShayina uwele esigabeni sezindleko zombuso ezikhiqizayo. KumaShayina, ingxenye enkulu yensalela ingaqoqwa ekukhiqizeni okwengeziwe kwendawo, kuze kuvumele iqiniso lokuthi ukuqagela ezimakethe zezakhiwo zasemadolobheni emadolobheni afana Shanghai, njengaku I-united states, iyingxenye yenkinga ngakho ayikwazi ukuba yingxenye yesixazululo. Izindleko zengqalasizinda, inqobo nje uma zizinkulu ngokwanele, zizohamba ibanga elide ekuqedeni umsebenzi osele futhi ngaleyo ndlela kuncishiswe amathuba okuba nezinxushunxushu emphakathini, kuphinde kukhuphule imakethe yangaphakathi.
Lawa mathuba ahluke ngokuphelele okuphishekela isisombululo esigcwele saseKeynesian njengoba emelelwa umehluko phakathi kwe I-united states futhi China zibe nemithelela ejulile yamazwe ngamazwe. Uma China isebenzisa izabelo zayo eziningi zezimali ukukhulisa imakethe yayo yangaphakathi, njengoba cishe ibophekile ukwenza ngenxa yezizathu zezepolitiki, ngakho-ke izoba nensalela encane yokuboleka I-united states. Ukuthengwa okuncishisiwe kwe-U.S. Treasury Bills kuzogcina kuphoqe izilinganiso zenzalo eziphezulu kanye nomthelela US isidingo sangaphakathi kabi futhi, ngaphandle uma silawulwa ngokucophelela, singase siqalise into eyodwa wonke umuntu ayesabayo kodwa esivinjiwe kuze kube manje: ukugijima ngedola. Ukuhamba kancane kancane ekuthembeleni US izimakethe kanye nokushintshwa kwemakethe yangaphakathi China njengomthombo wesidingo esisebenzayo semboni yaseShayina izoshintsha izilinganiso zamandla kakhulu (futhi, ngendlela, ibe nengcindezi kubo bobabili amaShayina kanye I-united states). Imali yaseShayina izokhuphuka ngokumelene nedola (umnyakazo owenziwe yi- US Sekuyisikhathi eside iziphathimandla zifuna kodwa zesaba ngokuyimfihlo) ngaleyo ndlela kuphoqa amaShayina ukuthi athembele nakakhulu emakethe yawo yangaphakathi ukuze athole inani eliphelele. I-dynamism ezophumela ngaphakathi China (ngokuphambene nezimo zokuwohloka komnotho ezizoba khona esikhathini eside I-united states) izodonsela abahlinzeki abaningi bezinto zokusetshenziswa emhlabeni wonke emgudwini wokuhweba waseShayina futhi inciphise ukubaluleka okuhlobene kwe I-united states ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe. Umphumela ophelele uzoba ukusheshisa ukukhukhuleka komcebo usuka eNtshonalanga uye eMpumalanga emnothweni womhlaba wonke futhi kuguqule ngokushesha ukulingana kwamandla omnotho we-hegemonic. Ukunyakaza kwe-tectonic ekulinganisweni kwamandla onxiwankulu emhlabeni wonke kuzoqina ngazo zonke izinhlobo zemiphumela yezepolitiki nezomnotho engalindelekile emhlabeni lapho I-united states ngeke isaba sesimweni sokubusa njengoba inamandla abalulekile. Okuxakayo kakhulu, ukuthi, izithiyo zezombangazwe nemibono e-United States kunoma yiluphi uhlelo olugcwele lwe-Keynesian cishe zizosheshisa ukulahlekelwa ukubusa kwe-US ezindabeni zomhlaba wonke njengoba nje abaphezulu bomhlaba (kuhlanganisa nalabo baseShayina) ngifisa ukulondoloza lokho kubusa isikhathi eside ngangokunokwenzeka.
Ukuthi i-Keynesianism yeqiniso e-China (kanye nezinye izifundazwe ezisesimweni esifanayo) izokwanela ukunxephezela ukwehluleka okungenakugwenywa kwe-Keynesianism engabazayo eNtshonalanga kuwumbuzo ovulekile, kodwa ukungalingani okuhambisana nokufiphala kwe-U.S. isandulela sokuqhekeka komnotho womhlaba ube yizinhlaka zezifunda ezingase zincintisane ngendlela eqinile njengokubambisana embuzweni odabukisayo wokuthi ubani ozothwala umthwalo wokudangala okuhlala isikhathi eside. Lowo akuwona umcabango oduduzayo kodwa ukucabanga ngalelo themba kungase kuvele kuvuse ingxenye enkulu yaseNtshonalanga ekuphuthumeni komsebenzi ophambi kwawo futhi kwenze abaholi bezombangazwe bayeke ukushumayela izithiyo mayelana nokubuyisela ukwethenjwa nokuzethemba futhi benze lokho okufanele kwenziwe. kwenziwa ukuhlenga ubunxiwankulu konxiwankulu kanye nemibono yabo ye-neoliberal engamanga. Futhi uma lokho kusho isocialism, ukwenza ubuzwe, ukuqondiswa kwezwe okuqinile, ukusebenzisana kwamazwe ngamazwe okubophayo, kanye nokusha nokubandakanya kakhulu (ngingathi โintando yeningiโ) ukwakhiwa kwezimali kwamazwe ngamazwe, makube njalo. โข
UDavid Harvey unguProfesa Ovelele emkhakheni we CUNY Graduate Centre in I-New York. Ungumbhali we Umlando omfushane we-Neoliberalism futhi igcina i Ukufunda ibhulogi ye-Marx's Capital
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