Izihloko zezindaba zakamuva kumaphephandaba ase-US mayelana nokukhula komnotho okuzayo okumenyezelwe uguquko lwegesi ye-shale zingakuholela ekucabangeni ukuthi sibhukuda kuwoyela ngempela. Imibiko eminingi ngonyaka odlule, ikakhulukazi i-International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook (WEO) ngoNovemba 2012, ibikezela ukuthi i-US izodlula iSaudi Arabia njengomkhiqizi omkhulu kawoyela emhlabeni ngo-2017, njengoba iReuters ikubeka, "konke kodwa ukuzimela ngokwemibandela yenetha" ekukhiqizeni amandla. Ngokusho kwe-IEA, ukwanda okucatshangwayo kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela kusuka ku-84 mbpd (imiphongolo eyizigidi ngosuku) ngo-2011 kuya ku-97 mbpd ngo-2035 kuzovela "kuphelele oketshezini lwegesi yemvelo kanye nemithombo engajwayelekile" - ikakhulukazi uwoyela we-shale negesi - ngenkathi ukukhishwa kukawoyela okuvamile. izoqala ukuwa kusukela ngo-2013.
Lezi zinsiza zingambiwa kuphela ngezindleko zokungcoliswa kwemvelo okukhulu: ukukhishwa kwazo kuhilela ukuqhekeka kwe-hydraulic ("fracking"; umjovo ocindezelwe wengxube yamanzi, isihlabathi kanye nezinto zokuhlanza ukuze kudaleke imifantu emisha edwaleni ukuze kukhishwe igesi), kusetshenziswa indlela yokubhola evundlile (1). Kodwa ukuxhashazwa kwabo e-US kulethe ukudalwa kwamakhulu ezinkulungwane zemisebenzi futhi kunikeza inzuzo yamandla ashibhile nachila. I-Exxon Mobil's 2013 Energy Outlook ithi ukuguquguquka kwegesi ye-shale kuzokwenza i-US ibe isikhiqizi esiphuma kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025. Kodwa ingabe inguquko ye-shale iphelele nje? Ukuntenga okuqhubekayo komnotho womhlaba kufanele kunikeze ikhefu lokucabanga. Umnotho waseSpain owake wachuma - okungowesine ngobukhulu e-Eurozone ngo-2008 - manje usebunzimeni obukhulu njengoba ibhuloho lempahla okuthiwa lalingenakuvinjwa liqhume kungazelelwe ngawo lowo nyaka, nezintengo zezindlu zehla ngengxenye yesithathu. Kodwa abenzi benqubomgomo bafunde okumbalwa
izifundo zengozi yango-2008, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi izophinda amaphutha afanayo emkhakheni we-petroleum.
Uphenyo lwe-New York Times lwaqala ukuthola ukuqhekeka okukhulu endabeni ethi "shale boom" ngoJuni 2011, bathola ukuthi izazi zezwe, abameli bezimboni kanye nabahlaziyi bezimakethe babuza "ngasese" ukuthi ngabe izinkampani zenza ngamabomu, futhi ngokungemthetho, zeqisa umkhiqizo wemithombo yazo. nobukhulu bezinqolobane zaboโ (2). Ngokwaleli phepha, โigesi ingase ingabi lula futhi ingabizi kakhulu ukuyikhipha emigodini engaphansi komhlaba njengoba izinkampani zisho, ngokwamakhulu ama-imeyili embonini nemibhalo yangaphakathi kanye nokuhlaziywa kokwaziswa okuvela ezinkulungwaneni zemithombo.โ
Ekuqaleni kuka-2012, abeluleki bamandla ababili base-US, bebhala ephephabhukwini lemboni yezamandla yaseBrithani iPetroleum Review, bahlaba umkhosi. Baphawule โisisekelo esiqinile sokungabaza okuphusile mayelana nokuthembeka nokuqina kwezinqolobane zegesi ye-shale yase-USโ โeye yakhuliswa kakhuluโ ngaphansi kwemithetho emisha yeKhomishana Yezokuphepha Nokushintshisana (SEC) eyethulwe ngo-2009 (3). Imithetho emisha ivumela izinkampani zegesi ukuthi zifune osayizi ababekiwe ngaphandle kwanoma yikuphi ukucwaninga okuzimele okuvela eceleni.
I-Dodgy economics ye-fracking
Ukulinganisa ngokweqile kosayizi abagciniwe kusetshenziswa abaphathi bemboni kawoyela ukuze kufihlwe umnotho we-fracking. Ngaphandle kwemiphumela eyingozi emvelweni, inkinga ingeyezinga lokukhiqiza, eliqala phezulu kodwa lehle ngokushesha. Emvelweni, owayengusosayensi omkhulu kuhulumeni wase-UK uSir David King, ebhala ngokubambisana nososayensi besikole sakhe i-Oxford Smith School of Enterprise & the Environment, waphawula ukuthi ukukhiqizwa emithonjeni kwehla cishe ngo-60-90% ngonyaka wokuqala (4) .
Ukwehla okusheshayo okunjalo kwenze igesi ye-shale ingenanzuzo ngokusobala. Njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwehla, abaqhubi bayaphoqeleka ukuthi bambe imithombo emisha ukuze kugcinwe amazinga okukhiqiza kanye nesikweletu sesevisi. Ukukhiqizwa kwamarokhethi ekuqaleni, kuhlanganiswe nokuwohloka komnotho, kwenze amanani egesi yemvelo ase-US asuka cishe ku-$7-8 nge-cubic feet eyisigidi ngo-2008 ehle aya ngaphansi kuka-$3 ngesigidi sama-cubic feet ngo-2012.
Ochwepheshe bezezimali abakaze bathathwe. "Umnotho wokuqhekeka uyingozi," kubhala intatheli yezezimali yaseMelika uWolf Richter kwethi Business Insider (5). โUkumba kucekela phansi imali ngendlela emangalisayo, kanti abambayo basala nenqwaba yezikweletu lapho nje ukwehla kwezinga sekuqala ukubangela umonakalo. Ukuze kunqandwe amazinga okwehla ekuqoqweni izitatimende zemali engenayo, izinkampani kwadingeka zibhoboze kakhulu, kube nemithombo emisha eyenza ukuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwemithombo emidala. Maye, uhlelo lushaye udonga, okuyiqiniso.โ
U-Arthur Berman, isazi sokuma kwe-petroleum esasebenza ne-Amoco (ngaphambi kokuhlanganiswa kwayo ne-BP) uthi โamazinga okwehla [okuhlangenwe nakho] kwamadamu e-shale โฆ โโaphezulu ngendlela emangalisayoโ (6). Ecaphuna isiza se-Eagle Ford shale eTexas (โumama wawo wonke ama-shale oil playsโ), uveza ukuthi โizinga lokwehla konyaka lingaphezu kwama-42%. Ukuze nje bagcine ukukhiqiza kuphansi, kuzodingeka bambe โimithombo ecishe ibe ngu-1,000 ku-Eagle Ford shale, njalo ngonyakaโฆ Ngihlanganisa zonke lezi zinto futhi iqala ukusondela emalini edingekayo ukutakula imboni yamabhange. Izophumaphi leyo mali?โ
โKonke kubomvuโ
Ngonyaka odlule kwabona ezinye zezinkampani ezinkulu zamandla zihlupheka ngenxa ye-bubble economics ye-shale gas boom. U-CEO we-ExxonMobil, u-Rex Tillerson, ukhale ngokuthi amanani aphansi ngenxa yokugcwala kwegesi yemvelo yase-US, nakuba enciphisa izindleko zamandla kubathengi, abengamanani acindezelayo futhi ngenxa yalokho ngokuvamile ayenganele ukukhokhela izindleko zokukhiqiza okuholela ekwehleni kwenzuzo enkulu. Nakuba, emihlanganweni yabanikazi bamasheya naseminyakeni yaminyaka yonke, inkampani yayigcizelele ngokusemthethweni ukuthi yayingalahlekelwa yimali ngegesi, uTillerson wakhuluma ngokungananazi emhlanganweni woMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Namazwe Angaphandle: โSonke silahlekelwa amahembe ethu namuhla. Asenzi mali. Konke kubomvuโ (7).
I-British BG Group yaphoqeleka ukuthi "ithathe i-$ 1.3bn yokubhala phansi kwempahla yayo yegesi yemvelo yase-US" ngenxa yokugcwala kwegesi, "okuholela ekwehleni okukhulu kwenzuzo yekota neyesikhashana" (8). NgoNovemba 2012, ngemuva kokuba iRoyal Dutch Shell ibone ukuthi imali etholwayo yehla ngekota yesithathu ilandelana โngamaphesenti angama-24 onyakeniโ, uDow Jones wabika โngemiphumela engemihle emalini abayitholayoโ, egcizelela โukuthi kuphazamiseke kangakanani ukuchuma kwe-shale eminyakeni embalwa edlule. ube kulo mkhakha.โ
Ngisho neChesapeake Energy - ekhokhiswa njengengqalabutho ye-shale yaseMelika - yazithola isenkingeni, okuyiphoqe ukuthi ithengise impahla ukuze ihlangabezane nezibopho zayo. "Imangala ngaphansi kwesikweletu esikhulu," kubika iThe Washington Post, uChesapeake uthe "izothengisa u-$ 6.9bn wezinkundla zegesi namapayipi - esinye isinyathelo sokunciphisa inkampani isikhulu sayo esiphezulu esiyenze umholi ekuguqukeni kwegesi ye-shale yezwe" (9 ).
Kuvunyelwe kanjani lokhu ukuba kwenzeke? Umhlaziyi uJohn Dizard uveze kuyi-Financial Times (6 Meyi 2012) ukuthi abakhiqizi begesi ye-shale basebenzise โimali ephindwe kabili, kathathu, kane ngisho nakahlanu ukuxhasa umhlaba wabo, ukumba kanye nezinhlelo zokuqedela.โ Ukuze kugcinwe lokhu โkwezimali ezishodayoโ, imali eningi kakhulu โyabolekwa, ngemibandela enzima futhi enenkani. I-Wall Street bekufanele inikeze amasheke angokoqobo kubantu begesi ye-shale; esikhundleni salokho, bavele banikeza amasheke e-cashier ngoziro abaningi ekugcineni. " Kepha ngokusho kukaDizard, ibhamuza lizoqhubeka nokukhula ngenxa yokuthembela okwandayo kwe-US emandleni aphehlwa ngegesi. โNgenxa yokwehla kwezinga lemithombo yegesi ye-shale, uma kuqhathaniswa nejwayelekile, ukumba kuzomele kuqhubeke. Amanani kuzodingeka ashintshele phezulu, kakhulu, ukuze angagcini nje ngokukhokhela izikweletu ezedlule kodwa nezindleko ezingokoqobo zokukhiqiza.โ
Isimo esibi kakhulu
Noma kunjalo, akushiwo ukuthi izinkampani zikawoyela eziningana ezinkulu zingazithola zibhekene nokucindezeleka kwezezimali ngesikhathi esisodwa. Uma lokho kwenzeka, ngokukaBerman, โungase ube nokuqothuka okukhulu okumbalwa noma uthathwe bese wonke umuntu ehlehla, yonke imali iyahwamuka, yonke imali iyaphela. Leso yisimo esibi kakhulu. โ
Ngamanye amazwi, isisekelo "samafutha aphezulu" - iphuzu lapho izingqinamba ze-geological kanye nezici zomnotho zizohlangana khona ukwenza izinto ezimnyama zibe nzima kakhulu futhi zibize ukukhiqiza - zikude kakhulu nokubukelwa phansi yi-shale gas boom. Izifundo zesayensi ezimbalwa ezizimele ezikhishwe ngonyaka odlule - ezinganakwa kakhulu abezindaba - ziqinisekisa lesi siphetho.
Ocwaningweni lweNqubomgomo Yamandla, uSir David King kanye nethimba lakhe le-Oxford baphethe ngokuthi imboni kawoyela idlule imali egciniwe yomhlaba cishe ngengxenye yesithathu, futhi izilinganiso kufanele zehliswe zisuka emiphongolweni eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1,150-1,350 ziye emiphongolweni eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-850-900. "Nakuba kunenqwaba yemithombo kaphethiloli yezinto ezimbiwa phansi esele emhlabathini, umthamo kawoyela ongasetshenziselwa ukuhweba ngamanani umnotho womhlaba usujwayele ukunqunyelwa futhi uzokwehla maduze" (10).
I-King and co, ephepheni labo leMvelo, bathole ukuthi naphezu kokwenyuka okubikwayo kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela negesi okungajwayelekile nge-fracking, ukuncipha kwamasimu akhona emhlabeni kusasebenza ku-4.5-6.7% ngonyaka. Bayichithile ngokuphelele imibono yokuthi ukukhuphuka kwegesi ye-shale kuzogwema inkinga yamandla. Futhi umhlaziyi wengozi yezezimali wase-US u-Gail Tverberg uthole ukuthi kusukela ngo-2005 "ukunikezwa kukawoyela [okujwayelekile] emhlabeni akunyukanga", ukuthi lokhu "kwakuyimbangela eyinhloko yokuwohloka komnotho ngo-2008-2009" kanye "nomthelela olindelekile wokunciphisa [okujwayelekile] ukutholakala kukawoyela" kuyosho ukuthi โinkinga yezezimali ingase ibe yimbi ekugcineniโ (11). Akugcinanga lapho: umbiko omusha ovela ku-New Economics Foundation uxwayise ngokuthi ukufika โkwamafutha aphakeme kakhulu kwezomnothoโ - lapho izindleko zokuhlinzekwa "zidlula inani lentengo ezomnotho lingakhokha ngaphandle kokuphazamisa kakhulu umsebenzi wezomnotho" - kuzokwenzeka cishe ngo-2014/15 ( 12).
Ukulandela umkhakha ophumelele kakhulu ohlasela i-PR, izintatheli nabenzi benqubomgomo bazishaye indiva lezi zifundo. Kodwa umphumela ulula: Esikhundleni sokuletha igagasi elisha lempumelelo ehlala njalo, umphumela wokugcina wokugcwala kwegesi kungenzeka ube ibhamuza le-shale elingasimame, elibhebhezela ukululama kwesikhashana okufihla ukuntengantenga kwesakhiwo okujulile. Lapho ibhamuza liqhuma ngaphansi kwesisindo sezibopho zalo zezikweletu, kuzoba nokuwa kokunikezwayo kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani, kube nemiphumela emibi kakhulu yezomnotho.
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