Umthombo: Venezuelanalysis
Inguqulo efushanisiwe yalesi sihloko ithunyelwe ngu I-Progressive.
Kubukeka sengathi izolo u-Elliot Abrams umemezele ukuthi abaphathi bakaTrump "basebenza kanzima" ukukhipha uMengameli uNicolas Maduro esikhundleni. Manje u-Abrams (okwamanje osesikhundleni esiphezulu eMkhandlwini Wezobudlelwano Nezangaphandle), kanye nabaphathi bakwa-Biden, unxusa abaphikisayo baseVenezuela ukuthi babambe iqhaza okhethweni lombuso nolwendawo oluhlelelwe uNovemba 21. Ukushintsha kweWashington, nokho, kusekude. ekulahleni ilungelo lokungenelela ezindabeni zangaphakathi zaseVenezuela.
Akumangazi ukuthi iWashington inqobe iqembu eliphikisayo eliholwa owazibiza ngomongameli uJuan Guaidó kanye noLeopoldo López ukuthi balahle inqubomgomo yabo yeminyaka emithathu yokuduba ukhetho, abathi ayinabo nhlobo ukuba semthethweni. Ukubamba iqhaza okhethweni kuyiphilisi elinzima kubo bobabili osopolitiki ukuthi baligwinye ngoba lichitha inkohliso eyakhuliswa iWashington yokuthi uGuaidó ungumongameli ofanelekile nokhona nokuthi usenezinsuku noma amasonto ambalwa ehlala esigodlweni sikamongameli.
Ngendlela yokulawula umonakalo, u-López umemezele ukuthi uyakuphikisa ukuhlanganyela emiqhudelwaneni yangoNovemba kodwa isikhundla nefayela leqembu lakhe nelikaGuaidó's Voluntad Popular lalimcindezela ukuba amukele ulayini omusha. ULópez, omele isikhundla esibi kakhulu ngisho naseqenjini lakhe, ubengowase-US “indoda yethu eCaracas” kwaze kwaba yilapho uGuaidó ezimemezela ngo-2019. Izibonelo zakamuva zokuthi u-López abeqisayo amazwi akhe athi inhlangano enkulu yezamabhizinisi iFedecámaras “ukubhejwa izwe” ngokumema isekela likamongameli waseVenezuela u-Delcy Rodríguez njengesivakashi esihlonishwayo emhlanganweni wawo waminyaka yonke kanye nokuhlasela kwakhe i-European Union ngokugunyaza uMaduro ngokuvuma ukuthumela izingqapheli zokhetho ngoNovemba.
Ukwenqatshwa kokuba semthethweni kukaMaduro kuqale ekuqaleni kuka-2015 lapho uMongameli u-Obama ememezela ukuthi iVenezuela “iwusongo olukhulu kwezokuphepha kwezwe laseMelika.” Lesi sitatimende asithusanga nje inqwaba yezinkampani ezinkulu zaseMelika ezavala izitolo zahamba, kodwa sabeka inkundla yezinhlawulo ezinzima zokuphatha kukaTrump kanye nezingxoxo zezishoshovu ezenzelwe ukwesabisa izinhlangano emhlabeni wonke ukuthi zihlukanise ubudlelwano neVenezuela. UFrancisco Rodríguez, usomnotho waseVenezuela owake waba ne-Bank of America kanye nomeluleki ohamba phambili wamaqembu aphikisayo, uveze ukuthi ukube bekungengenxa yokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ngezijeziso esifundeni esikhiqiza kakhulu i-Orinoco River ngabe kathathu kuye kahlanu okukhulu kulo nyaka.
Okhethweni lwangoNovemba, iVoluntad Popular izongenela ukhetho ngethikithi leDemocratic Roundtable Unity (MUD) alliance ehlanganisa amaqembu amakhulu aphikisayo. Ngokungafani ne-MUD, inqwaba yamaqembu aphikisayo amancane aphikisayo afuna ukhetho agxeke unswinyo futhi aqaphela ukufaneleka kukaMaduro. Ukuhlukana kwamaqembu aphikisayo kukhulisa amathuba okuthi i-United Socialist Party (PSUV) kaMaduro kanye nabalingani bayo bathole ubuningi okhethweni. Inkampani yokuvota i-Hinterlaces ibeka ukuduma kwe-PSUV 34% uma kuqhathaniswa no-13% weVoluntad Popular kanye nabanye abaphikisi behlangene. Ngokuphambene, i-pollster ephikisayo uLuis Vicente León uthi i-PSUV iku-20 kuya ku-25%. Naphezu kokuhola kwe-PSUV, okwenzeka eNicaragua ngo-1990, lapho abantu baseNicaragua bevotela amaSandinista esikhundleni ngenxa yokwesaba ukuqhubeka kodlame olugqugquzelwa yi-US kanye nezijeziso zezomnotho, kungase kubangele imiphumela kaNovemba ukuze kuzuze abaphikisayo.
Inqubomgomo kaBiden: Lungakanani Ushintsho?
UMaduro utshele iBloomberg ukuthi ngaphandle kwesithembiso sikaBiden sokulungisa kabusha inqubomgomo kaTrump yezangaphandle, akukho okushintshile mayelana neVenezuela. UMaduro ukhale “akukaze kube khona noyedwa uphawu oluqondile, akekho” nakuba aqhubeka eqaphela ukuthi okungenani izikhulu zoMnyango Wezwe “zivumelana nengxoxo yezombangazwe phakathi kwabantu baseVenezuela.” U-Abrams uphinde waveza ukuthi amaRepublican namaDemocrats asekhasini elilodwa uma kukhulunywa ngeVenezuela. Ngaphansi kweBiden, unswinyo luhlala lunjalo futhi izikhulu zikahulumeni zikhombisile ukuthi sezingenile ungajahi ukubukeza kubo.
Noma kunjalo, inqubomgomo kaBiden iyasuka esu likaTrump lokugqugquzela ukuketulwa kwamasosha kanye nokusabisa ngokungenelela kwamasosha ngenkulumo yakhe ethi "zonke izinketho zisetafuleni". Ngaphezu kwalokho, umongameli wase-United States akasafaki izithombe namakhosikazi kaLópez noGuaidó. I I-Panam Post baphawule ukuthi abaphathi be-Biden, bemagange ukuthola impumelelo kwezombusazwe futhi bengabaza amandla aphikisayo e-Venezuelan kwezombusazwe, baye babukela phansi ukubaluleka kweVenezuela futhi "babhekisa iso labo eNicaragua" lapho amathemba okushintsha umbuso ekhanya kakhulu. Cishe ukulahlwa kwemishini yokuguqula umbuso.
Ushintsho lwangempela ngo-2021 lube sekwenziweni kwe-a inqubomgomo encane yokugqugquzela uMaduro ukuthi abhekelele izithakazelo zezomnotho nezepolitiki zase-US, ngokungafani nokushintshwa kombuso. Ngempela, ezinsukwini ngemuva kokhetho lwase-US lwango-2020 Abrams uncome u-Biden ukuthi angasasebenzisi unswinyo njengesu lokushintsha umbuso ngokumelene neVenezuela nokuthi esikhundleni salokho azisebenzise njengethuluzi lokunciphisa izivumelwano. Indlela yokuhweba ngamahhashi ihlanganisa ukunikeza ukushintsha noma ukuphakamisa unswinyo esinikeziwe ukuze uthole imvume evela ku-Maduro.
Engxoxweni abe nayo neBloomberg, uMaduro uveze ukuthi uyazi ukuthi udlalwa kanjani lo mdlalo: “Abanikazi bamabhondi…yazi ukuthi kungenzeka ukutshala imali eVenezuela, futhi uwine, inqobo nje uma konke lokhu kushushiswa kanye nalezi zijeziso zingekho. Umkhakha kawoyela uyazi…singathuthukela kakhulu.”
Ngokulandelayo, intatheli yaseBloomberg u-Erik Schatzker uzwakalise isu loMnyango Wezwe ngokubuza ukuthi “Uma izingxoxo ziqala, uma kwenzeka, uzobheka isivumelwano sokuthi konke noma-lutho noma uzovuma inqubo kancane kancane?” bese kuthi “Uzimisele ukuya kude kangakanani nalokhu kuvulwa kabusha [kwezomnotho]?”
Indlela yaseWashington yokuqinisa ibeka amanga embonweni wokuthi inqubomgomo yaseVenezuela yake yaba ngentando yeningi ngempela. Ukufaka ingcindezi yokuthola izimvume ezivuna izintshisekelo zebhizinisi lase-US akufani neze nokukhuthazwa kwentando yeningi. UCarlos Ron, iPhini likaNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle WaseVenezuela eNyakatho Melika, ungitshele ukuthi naphezu kokumiswa kukaWashington "akukaze kube nokukhathazeka kwangempela ngentando yeningi yaseVenezuela futhi uzame ukubukela phansi nokuchitha zonke izinqubo zokhetho kusukela uMongameli Chavez."
Ngasohlangothini lwezepolitiki, izimvume ziye zavuna iVoluntad Popular ngokuhambisana nokuthandwa yiWashington. Kulolu hlelo, amaqembu aphikisayo abekwe eceleni. Ngonyaka odlule iWashington yajezisa abaholi bayo abane ngokwephula inqubomgomo yaseMelika ngaleso sikhathi eyayiphikisana nokungenela ukhetho lwengqungquthela.
Ekhathazeke ngokuthi iWashington isuse unswinyo, uMaduro udedele uFreddy Guevara kaVoluntad Popular ngoJulayi, osolwa ngokudala udlame ejele. Akumangalisi ukuthi kwakunjalo Guaidó owaqamba ithimba lamaqembu aphikisayo ezingxoxo eziqhutshwa nohulumeni waseVenezuela eMexico, wafaka noGuevara njengelungu eliqavile.
Izivumelwano zikaMaduro zezombangazwe ngaphambi kokhetho lwangoNovemba zihlanganisa ukwandisa ukumeleleka kwamaqembu aphikisayo kuKhomishana Yokhetho Kazwelonke enamalungu ayi-5 ukusuka kwelilodwa kuya kwamabili (bobabili bakhethwe abaphikisayo) kanye nokukhulula iziboshwa zezombusazwe. Imizamo kaMaduro yokuhwebelana yayiklanyelwe ukukhuthaza iVoluntad Popular kanye nabalingani bayo ukuthi bayeke ukungayi okhethweni bese benza ukuthi iWashington isuse unswinyo.
Okhulumela i-White House Ned Price umemezele ukuthi iWashington "izodambisa unswinyo" uma kukhona "inqubekelaphambili ebalulekile" ezingxoxweni phakathi kukaMaduro nabaphikisayo. Ngokufanayo, Abrams ibhekisela “ekunciphiseni unswinyo noma isivumelwano sokusebenzisa impahla ethile eqandisiwe kwezempilo nezinjongo ezihlobene,” kuye ngemvume uMaduro azimisele ukuyinikeza.
Njengasohlangothini lwendlela yokuphatha yokuhweba ngamahhashi ukuze bathole izimvume zezomnotho, isu labo elincane kwezombusazwe elivuna abaholi abangakwesokudla lenza kube nzima ukusho ukuthi intando yeningi isiphetho. Ngalo mqondo indlela kaTrump yokusho konke noma lutho kungenzeka ukuthi yayinokwethenjwa okwengeziwe. Ngemuva kwakho konke, umuntu angabuza ukuthi iliphi iphuzu lapho uBiden ezobheka khona intando yeningi kaMaduro yaseVenezuela, okuwudaba olungenasisekelo olubheka amaphutha amaningi entando yeningi yaseMelika.
Ukhetho lukaNovemba: Akekho Owinile Ongabikezelwa
Amazwi kanambambili aseWashington ahlanganisa abantu abalungile nababi angaqinisekisa noma ubani ukuthi ukukhetha ngoNovemba kuphakathi kukaMaduro noGuaidó. Ngemva kokuthatha ingubo yaseWashington "yendoda yethu eCaracas," uGuaidó uthathwa njengomkhulumeli omkhulu wamaqembu aphikisayo, kanti uVoluntad Popular uthathwa njengeqembu elikhulu kunawo wonke eliphikisayo. Lesi simo siphikisana nokululaza okuphelele kuka-Guaidó e-Venezuela kanye neqiniso lokuthi i-Voluntad Popular iyiqembu elincane emaphethelweni aphikisayo aphikisayo. Impela, ilungelo likaWashington ngoGuaidó neqembu lakhe kulimaze abaphikisayo uma kubhekwa iqiniso lokuthi amanye amaqembu amelene nohulumeni nabaholi banokwethenjwa okukhulu eVenezuela.
Uhide lwemizamo engalungile yokuguqula umbuso kanye namahlazo enkohlakalo kuphazamise ukuthandwa kukaGuaidó, okuthi ngokusho kukaHinterlaces kungaphansi kwe-17%.
Iningi lamahlazo abandakanya izimpahla zangaphandle zombuso waseVenezuela ezinikezwe iGuaidó ngohulumeni abangamazi uMaduro. Icala lakamuva elinjalo inkampani ye-petrochemical i-Monómeros esebenze e-Colombia isikhathi esingaphezu kwesigamu sekhulu kodwa ngaphansi kwe-Guaidó isidlule ku-General Managers abahlanu futhi manje ifaka isicelo sokuqothuka. Abaholi abaphezulu beqembu elihlangene ne-Voluntad Popular i-Primero Justicia bayasola Guaidó abaqokwe wokushayela inkampani phansi ngenxa yokungabi namakhono, ukwenza ipolitiki, kanye namadili amnyama. Impendulo kaVoluntad Popular ithi uPrimero Justicia ufanelwe yingxenye yecala ngoba abaqokwe yizinhlangothi zombili babenezikhundla zobuholi enkampanini. Omunye owazwelana noMaduro ubize lezi zinsolo ngokuthi “ukuwa ngamasela.”
Ngokusho komhlaziyi wezepolitiki waseVenezuela Ociel López, ukuze uqonde ukungqubuzana kweMonómeros kuyadingeka ukubheka isithombe esikhulu. Ngokusho kwakhe, umbango ukhombisa umbango oqhubekayo phakathi kwamaqembu amabili okuthiwa adlelana kanye nokugcizelela kukaPrimero Justicia ukuthi ukhetho lwangoNovemba lubekwe eqhulwini kunokuba luchithwe kusenesikhathi njengokukhwabanisa, njengoba kwenza abaholi Abadumile abangamaVoluntad. ULópez wengeza ngokuthi ukwenza iVoluntad Popular ingathathi hlangothi “kwenza kube lula kwabaphikisayo ukuthi bangene emgqeni wokhetho” futhi baphumelele okhethweni.
Umbango phakathi kwamaqembu amabili okuthiwa adlelana okhethweni lwangomhla zingama-21 kuLwezi yiwona nje oyingqophamlando. Kusukela mhla ziyisi-6 kuMandulo bebengu-70,244 3,082 abantu abaningi abebemelene nohulumeni ezikhundleni ezingu-XNUMX XNUMX. Ngenkathi amaqembu amane amakhulu ehlangene ku-MUD, amanye amaqembu awasola ngemizamo yawo eyiphutha yokushintsha umbuso ngaphansi kokuqondisa kukaWashington. Endaweni enkulu yeCaracas, imincintiswano eminingana yokuba ngumbusi, imeya kanye nomkhandlu kamasipala iqhudelana nabangenele ukhetho lwe-MUD neNeighbourhood Force esanda kusungulwa. Ithi inokusekelwa okuqinile komphakathi, iNeighbourhood Force ibeka amaphutha i-MUD ngokwenqaba ama-primaries njengendlela yokukhetha abangenele ukhetho oluhlangene.
Umcwaningi wemibono yamaqembu aphikisayo uLuis Vicente León ubikezela izinga lokungayi 50 kuya ku-60% naphezu kokunakwa ezweni lonke nakwamanye amazwe le miqhudelwano ekutholile. NgokukaLeón, inkinga yamaqembu aphikisayo iwukuhlukana kwawo ngokwedlulele kanye neqiniso lokuthi kwezinye izimo aphethe “abantu abangenele ukhetho, abafika enkundleni ngenxa yesivumelwano sezombangazwe.”
Izijeziso zase-US zidale umonakalo emnothweni waseVenezuela nakubantu. Kungenzeka kanjani ukuthi kube ngenye indlela lapho i-Venezuela ineminyaka eyikhulu incike ngokuphelele ekuthengisweni kukawoyela manje osekuvinjwe unswinyo olubhekiswe kunoma iyiphi inkampani noma kuphi emhlabeni enesibindi sokuthenga umkhiqizo.
Ngasohlangothini lwezepolitiki inqubomgomo yase-US maqondana neVenezuela nayo ibe nomthelela omubi kakhulu ngokuthi ibhebhethekisa ubandlululo ngokusebenzisa indawo emaphakathi yamaqembu aphikisayo kanye nabagxeki bakaMaduro kwesokunxele - umongameli angakubekezeleli kangako. Ama-moderates ahambisana kakhulu nokukhathazeka kwabantu baseVenezuela kuneVoluntad Popular ngoba baphikisa unswinyo futhi bakhetha ukugxila ezixazululweni zezinkinga zomnotho ezibambekayo, kunokushintshwa kombuso. ULeón uveze ngo-Agasti lokho 76.4% abantu baseVenezuela bayayenqaba unswinyo futhi banomuzwa wokuthi abanalo umthelela wezepolitiki.
Ingqinamba enkulu yamaqembu aphikisayo wukukhipha ivoti ngoNovemba. Ngomqondo othile i-Voluntad Popular iyazidubula onyaweni ngokugcizelela (entweni ethile ephuma encwadini yokudlala kaTrump) ukuthi ukhetho luzoqiniswa, ngaleyo ndlela ludumaze abavoti babo. Kodwa ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lokuziyeka elibikezelwe ngo-50% ngoNovemba likhombisa ukwenqatshwa okusabalele kweqembu lonke lezepolitiki phakathi kwabavoti. Empeleni, ingxenye yezwe igxeka uhulumeni ngezinkinga zezomnotho ezicindezelayo kodwa futhi nabaphikisayo ngokulandela i-ajenda yokuguqula umbuso waseWashington.
Eminyakeni engu-3 edlule, amaqembu amakhulu aphikisayo, asekelwa abezindaba abavamile, athatha isikweletu ngezinga eliphezulu lokuziba okhethweni lwaseVenezuela, ethi labo abangavoti bazwelana nesizathu sabo. Manje njengoba wona la maqembu esekhethe ukubamba iqhaza okhethweni, izinga elilindelekile lokungayi okhethweni elingu-50% ngoNovemba 21 liyinkomba ecacile yokwesekwa kwawo okuthandwayo okulinganiselwe ngokweqile. Ngempela, ukwehluleka kwe-MUD ukuthola inani elikhulu phakathi kwabavoti abafanelekile kuzobonisa ubuwula bokuqhubeka kweWashington nokuqaphela uJuan Guaidó njengomongameli ofanelekile waseVenezuela.
USteve Ellner unguprofesa osewathatha umhlalaphansi we-Universidad de Oriente yaseVenezuela futhi njengamanje unguMhleli Ophethe Wenhlangano. Imibono yaseLatin America. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ehleliwe ithi I-Latin American Extractivism: Ukuncika, I-Resource Nationalism, kanye Nokumelana Nombono Obanzi (Rowman and Littlefield, 2021).
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela