Umthombo: Jacobin
Ushintsho olunjalo lubonisa ukuthi zingakanani izinguquko kwezombusazwe zaseVenezuela esikhathini esidlule. Selokhu kwaba nemizamo yokuketula umbuso ngo-April 2002, ohulumeni bezwe abangakwesobunxele bebelokhu bephikisana namaqembu aphikisayo abumbene, ahlose ukufeza izinguquko zombuso nganoma iyiphi indlela engenzeka. Kodwa manje, ukuhlukaniswa okunjalo okwedlulele kubonakala kuncipha.
Owake waba yimeya yaseCaracas futhi owayengenele ukhetho lukamongameli, uFermín akayedwa phakathi kosopolitiki abashisekayo ekuphikisaneni nokugcizelela kwabaphathi bakaTrump ekudubeni ukhetho lweSishayamthetho Sikazwelonke sangoDisemba 6, emzamweni wokumisa umongameli uNicolás Maduro.
Inkulumo kaFermín yobuzwe yavezwa engxoxweni ngenyanga edlule, njengoba egxeka ilungelo laseVenezuela, ukuphathwa kukaTrump, kanye nabanye ohulumeni abalandele ukuhola kwabo: “Amandla amakhulu baye bahlangana nezicukuthwane zezwe ezimelene neVenezuela, abangenayo ngempela iVenezuela ezinhliziyweni zabo, ezithiya ukufika kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela enophethiloli odingeka kakhulu . . . Izijeziso ziwukudelela ubukhosi bezwe.” Ukuqaliswa kweWashington unswinyo lwamazwe ngamazwe - oluphikiswa abaphikisana nabaphikisayo - kube nomthelela omkhulu kulokhu kuzamazama kwepolitiki yaseVenezuela.
Ngisho naseminyakeni yamuva nje, abaphikisi bebebumbene. Okhethweni lwangowezi-2015 lwesiGungu Sikazwelonke, lazuza ubumbano oluhlanganisa konke, lisekela ithikithi elilodwa elimelene nohulumeni elaphuma linqoba. Kwathi ngoJanuwari 2019, bonke abaphikisi bahambisana nokuzibiza kukaJuan Guaidó njengomongameli. Kodwa manje abashisekeli, iningi labo elibona ukuba semthethweni kwenqubo yezombangazwe yesizwe, babhekene nengwadla yosopolitiki abasohlangothini lweKunene abafuna ukuba bangene okhethweni lweSishayamthetho Sikazwelonke oluhlelelwe umhla ziyisi-6 kuZibandlela.
Ukuhlangana phakathi kwesikhungo nesobunxele akuwona kuphela umphumela wezinqubomgomo zase-Washington kanye nokuhlupheka okungachazeki abakubangele kubantu baseVenezuela. Kuphinde kube umkhiqizo wesu likamongameli u-Nicolás Maduro lobuhlakani lokwamukela ezinye zezidingo zabaphathi ngenkathi ephishekela indlela eqinile yokulwa nabaphikisayo. UCarlos Ron, iphini likangqongqoshe eNyakatho Melika, wangitshela, “UMaduro kufanele ahlonishwe ngokufeza lokho okwakubonakala kungenakwenzeka: ukususa ingxenye enkulu yabaphikisi ukusuka ekuvukeleni ukuya ekuthuleni.”
Kodwa leli qhinga libuye libe nobubi balo. Ukuvunyelwa kwebhizinisi, okuhambisana neqhinga likaMaduro lokubuyisana, kugxekwe iqembu elingakwesokunxele le-Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV). Ngaphezu kwalokho, Iqembu LamaKhomanisi kanye namanye amaqembu namaqembu amaningana angaphansi komfelandawonye wePolo Patriótico ahlukane noMaduro futhi akhe isileti esiyimbangi okhethweni oluzayo.
Futhi naphezu kokuma kwabo kwakamuva, kusobala ukuthi ama-centrists akude nabalingani abazinzile beMaduro. Abanye bamane bacela isikhathi sabo - balinde isikhathi esifanele sokuzama ukumkhipha ngenkani ngokhetho lokuhlehlisa.
Ukuqinisa Izijeziso
Njengoba abaphathi bakaTrump benyusa unswinyo kanye nezinsongo zezempi, abantu baseVenezuela baya benqaba. Inkampani yemibono yomphakathi Ama-Hinterlaces yakhipha inhlolovo ngoNovemba 2017 ekhombisa ukuthi amaphesenti angama-72 abantu baseVenezuela abaphikisana nezigwegwe, kanti omunye August 2020 okubonisa ukuthi lesi sibalo senyuke safinyelela kumaphesenti angama-81. Ngokwalokhu kuhlola kwakamuva, amaphesenti angu-80 abantu baseVenezuela athi “indima ye-United States iye yaba yimbi.”
Ukuhlangana phakathi kwesikhungo nesobunxele akuwona kuphela umphumela wezinqubomgomo zase-Washington kanye nokuhlupheka okungachazeki abakubangele kubantu baseVenezuela.
Ukuqinisa kukaTrump unswinyo eminyakeni yobudala ye-COVID-19 kuyisibonelo sokuqala salokho uNaomi Klein akubiza ngokuthi “Shock Doctrine”: izimo zenhlekelele nokuhlupheka zinikeza abanamandla amathuba ahlukile okubeka izinguquko ezinkulu.
Maphakathi ne-coronavirus, abaphathi bakaTrump bayalele izinkampani ezine zenkonzo kawoyela ukuthi zivale ukusebenza eVenezuela. Iphinde ihoxise “izimvume” ezifanayo ezifanayo ezazinikezwe i-Repsol yase-Spain, i-Eni yase-Italy, ne-India's Reliance Industries ukuze ihlanganyele ezinhlelweni zokushintshana ezihilela uwoyela, inqobo nje uma kungekho mali ehilelekile. Ukuqedwa kwalezi zivumelwano zokuhwebelana kuzophuca i-Venezuela uphethiloli kadizili osetshenziselwa ukuthutha ukudla nokukhiqiza ugesi.
Izijeziso ezibhekiswe kubantu baseVenezuela ngabanye nazo sezithathe inguquko ephazamisayo ezinyangeni ezisanda kwedlula. Ngaphambili, ababehloswe kwakungosopolitiki baseVenezuela, izikhulu zeziphathimandla, nabanye ababehlangene nohulumeni ababesolwa ngokwenza izenzo ezingekho emthethweni, njengenkohlakalo, ingcindezelo, nokushushumbisa izidakamizwa. Kepha manje, ngo-2020, ngisho nabaholi bezepolitiki basezindaweni ezihlukene zokuphatha kukaTrump, ngenxa yentshiseko yabo enganele ngeGuaidó.
NgoJanuwari, uMnyango Wezezimali wajezisa amalungu ayisikhombisa aphikisayo amaqembu amakhulu ezepolitiki aphikisayo - i-Acción Democrática (AD), i-COPEI, i-Primero Justicia kanye noVoluntad Popular - ababeqale ukungabaza ukwesekwa kwezinhlangano zabo ngokungenamibandela ku-Guaidó kanye nokuphikisana nokubamba iqhaza okhethweni. . Abaphathi bakaTrump balithathela phezulu izwi labaholi be-pro-Guaidó lokuthi abaphikisi babenza inkohlakalo ehlanganisa nohlelo lukahulumeni lokusabalalisa ukudla. Eqinisweni, unswinyo lwalugqugquzelwa ezombusazwe, njengoba kwembulwa nguJames B. Story, inxusa laseMelika eVenezuela, lapho waxwayiswa "labo ababukela phansi intando yeningi yaseVenezuela bazojeziswa."
NgoSepthemba, uSteven Mnuchin kanye noMnyango Wezezimali bakwenza kwacaca ukuthi unswinyo lumayelana nepolitiki. Abaholi bamaqembu amahlanu ahlukene okuhlanganisa no-AD Bernabé Gutiérrez, umholi weqembu ohlonishwa kakhulu, bafakwe ohlwini lwezijeziso. Ngokwenza lokho, uMgcinimafa wasola laba “izibalo ezibalulekile” lokwenza uhlelo “lokubeka amaqembu aphikisayo ezandleni zosopolitiki abahlangene nombuso kaNicolás Maduro.”
Ekusebenzisaneni nezinyathelo zokujezisa, abaphathi bakaTrump bathatha uhlangothi odabeni lwangaphakathi lweqembu lamaqhinga. Impela, ingxabano emaqenjini ahlukene aphikisayo, ikakhulukazi i-AD kanye ne-Primera Justicia, mayelana nokubamba iqhaza okhethweni nokungavoti iqale eminyakeni eminingi edlule. UGutiérrez wakungabaza ukwenqaba kweqembu lakhe ukungenela ukhetho okhethweni LwePhalamende Likazwelonke lwango-2005, lapho uClaudio Fermín exoshwa ku-AD ngenxa yokumela ukuhlanganyela.
Bangakanani Ama-Marginal?
Amaqembu ezinhlangothi zombili zombango ahlukene phakathi njengoba kuyiwa okhethweni lukaDisemba. Odabeni lwe-AD, i-COPEI, i-Primero Justicia, ne-Voluntad Popular, i-PSUV-ebuswa yi-Supreme Tribunal of Justice iye yabona ukuba semthethweni kwamaqembu abambe iqhaza emqhudelwaneni wokhetho, hhayi lawo angafuni ukulalela.
Ekusebenzisaneni nezinyathelo zokujezisa, abaphathi bakaTrump bathatha uhlangothi odabeni lwangaphakathi lweqembu lamaqhinga.
Ukuphatha kukaTrump kubize labo abangazithinti “osopolitiki abancane.” Uma ukhetho lukamongameli lwango-2018 luyinkomba, ukungayi kuzobe kungaphezudlwana nje kwamaphesenti angama-50. Ngokwemvelo, lokho akusho ukuthi bonke labo abangakuyeki ngaleyo ndlela basekela uGuaidó nabasekeli bakhe.
Kuningi okusengcupheni yempi ephakathi kwalabo abangafuni ukuhoxa nabangafuni ukuya. Ukuvela kweqeqebana lamaqembu angashiyi kwesokunxele aqaphela ngokucacile noma buthule ukuba semthethweni kwesistimu yezombangazwe yaseVenezuela kungavula indlela yenkathi entsha kwezombusazwe yezwe engenazo izimpi zasendulo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuyinkomba ecacile yokuqothuka kwemizamo yokuguqula umbuso kaTrump. Futhi ibeka amanga esimangalweni sabo bobabili abaholi beDemocratic and Republican ukuthi uMaduro akayena umashiqela.
UFermín uthi amaphekula eqembu eliphikisayo anezinjongo ezahlukene nabaholi bawo. “Izinkulungwane izishoshovu zinqatshelwe ithuba lokungenela umkhandlu wedolobha noma ubumeya. I-Abstentionism isithene isizukulwane sezishoshovu kusukela ngo-2005.”
UGutíerrez uthi ngoJanuwari, unobhala-jikelele wezinga lombuso we-AD babambe imihlangano yezikhundla ezingeni lendawo futhi “wonke umuntu bazwakalise ukweseka ukubamba iqhaza okhethweni.” Nokho, ngemuva kwalokho, unobhala-jikelele kazwelonke u-Henry Ramos Allup wabeka intando yakhe eqenjini evuna ukungayi.
UFermín noGutiérrez bangase babe nethemba ngokwedlulele mayelana nokubikezela kwabo inani labantu abazongenela ukhetho ngo-December 6. Izimo zezomnotho ezinzima zesizwe, ngokungafani nesimo saso sangaphambili njengesizwe esikhethekile, esikhiqiza uwoyela, sithonya abantu abaningi baseVenezuela ekungabazeni ukuba semthethweni kwesimiso esikhona. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukubusa kwamaqembu aphikisayo avuna ukungayi engqungqutheleni akukwazi ukulinganiswa ngokweqile.
Hhayi kuphela u-AD kodwa futhi no-Henrique Capriles oqokelwe isikhundla sokuba ngumongameli izikhathi ezimbili u-Henrique Capriles we-Primero Justicia ubevuleleke ekubambeni iqhaza okhethweni ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, kodwa wabe esejikela enkanjini yabavimbeli. Ngokungangabazeki, ingcindezi evela phesheya, okuhlanganisa nokwesaba unswinyo lwaseMelika, yenza lukhulu ukuchaza ukucutshungulwa kwabo kabusha.
Ngempela, ukulungiselelwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kuwushintsho olubalulekile. Iningi lohulumeni baseMelika naseYurophu basezandleni zamaqembu aphikisayo kanye namaqembu aphikisayo futhi badlale indima yesishoshovu evuna ushintsho lombuso waseVenezuela. Abaholi baseVenezuela banethemba lokwesekwa yiYurophu, ikakhulukazi uhulumeni waseSpain olinganiselayo, owake wathumela izimpawu ezixubile. Kodwa okwadumaza kakhulu abaphakathi, ngoSepthemba, i-European Union yasichitha isimemo sikaMaduro sokuthi ihlinzeke ngabaqapheli bokhetho ngoDisemba.
I-Gambit kaMaduro
Uhulumeni waseMaduro kanye nezikhulu ziye zasekelana ngezindlela ezibambekayo. NgoJanuwari, izikhulu zacela futhi bathola ukuqashelwa okusemthethweni kwe-Supreme Tribunal of Justice yeSishayamthetho Sikazwelonke ababesilawula, ngokuphambene nendikimba efanayo elawulwa abalandeli bakaGuaidó. Khona-ke, inkantolo efanayo yabona amaqembu aphethwe abantu maphakathi ayehlukene nalawo aphethwe abaholi bendabuko abaphikisayo. Ngokulandelayo, ama-centrists akunqabele ngokusobala noma kabufihli uhlamvu Lwelungelo kuhulumeni wase-Maduro njengobushiqela bobuphekula be-narco.
Iningi lohulumeni baseMelika naseYurophu basezandleni zamaqembu aphikisayo kanye namaqembu aphikisayo futhi badlale indima yesishoshovu evuna ushintsho lombuso waseVenezuela.
Ngempela, ukuzimisela kwama-centrists ukudelela ingcindezi yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nezasekhaya kubikezelwa ekugomeni okuthathu: okokuqala, uhulumeni waseMaduro akusona isimo se-narco-state, okwesibili, akuwona umbuso wobushiqela, kanti okwesithathu, uye wathola ibhizinisi elisanda kwamukelwa- izinqubomgomo ezinobungane.
Uma ubufakazi obubambekayo bebungaphikisa noma isiphi salezi zitatimende, isu elilandelwa ongqongqoshe bekungeke lisebenze.
Izinguquko zebhizinisi likaMaduro zamukelwe ngabakhulu - kodwa zaletha ukugxekwa kwabathile Kwesokunxele, okuhlanganisa nabasekeli abaseduze. Isibonelo sakamuva sokuvulwa kukahulumeni kwezinkampani ezizimele “Umthetho Wokuvimba Ukuvimba” osanda kuphasiswa, ozovumela abaphathi ukuthi benze izivumelwano eziyimfihlo nezinkampani ezizimele mayelana nezinhlelo ezintsha zezakhiwo — okungenzeka ukuthi ziqukethe “imitjhwana ukuvikela ukutshalwa kwezimali ukuze kwakhiwe ukuzethemba nokuzinza.”
Iqembu lamaKhomanisi lagxeka leli lungiselelo njengokuhlehliswa kwezinqubomgomo zika-Hugo Chávez ezivuna ukuzimela kwezwe kanye nomzamo wokwenza kube semthethweni “inqubomgomo lokuthobela izithakazelo zemali.”
UFermín wasamukela kakhulu lesi siphakamiso futhi wancoma uMaduro ngokungaphuci inkampani eyodwa, athi ifana ne “ukuzigxeka” mayelana nezinqubomgomo zomanduleli wakhe.
Isisho sesibili - esichitha i-narco-state thesis - siyaphika ukuthi kukhona ukushushumbiswa kwezidakamizwa "i-Cartel de los Soles," iWashington ebithi isetshenziswa izinhloko zezwe zaseVenezuela selokhu kwakhethwa u-Chávez ngo-1998 futhi manje. eholwa nguMaduro. Ngokuqondana nje, uMnyango Wezobulungiswa wase-US walinda kuze kube yilolu suku lukaMashi ukuze wethule icala enkantolo yenhlangano eManhattan ngalolo suku lapho abaphathi bakaTrump bafaka imali eyizigidi eziyi-15 kuMaduro.
UFulton Armstrong, onokuhlangenwe nakho kwamashumi eminyaka esebenzela ezobunhloli baseMelika, uthe, “Akekho umhlaziyi ozimisele Ngiyazi ukuthi ngaphandle kukahulumeni kukhona iCartel de los Soles.”
Isimangalo sesithathu - leso sombuso wobushiqela - sisekude ngokulinganayo kodwa sikungabaza ukuqina kukaMaduro ngokumelene nabaphikisi. Isinqumo sokwamukela amaqembu aholwa ngabantu abakhulu esikhundleni sabaholi bamaqembu aphikisayo ngokwendabuko, sibukeka sinzima. Abavikeli bakaMaduro bangase baphendule ngokuthi labo baholi baye bazilahla kude kangaka ngaphandle komthetho ngokusekela ngenkuthalo ukungenelela kwamanye amazwe kanye nezenzo eziningi ezinobudlova, zokuguqula umbuso kangangokuthi, okungenani okwesikhashana, balahlekelwa amalungelo abo entando yeningi. Kodwa le mpikiswano ayikwazi ukusetshenziswa emaqenjini angakwesokunxele afana no-Patria Para Todos (PPT) kanye ne-Tupamaro - okwathi, ngemva kokushiya umfelandawonye ophethe we-Polo Patriótico (kanye neQembu LamaKhomanisi), balahlekelwa ukuqashelwa kwabo okusemthethweni, okwadluliselwa ekuhlukaniseni. izinhlangano. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umphathi-dolobha we-PSUV waseCaracas wenza izinsolo ezingamanga mayelana nokuziphatha kukanobhala-jikelele we-PPT uJosé Albornoz.
Abagxeki bakahulumeni bakhomba ukungahambi kahle nokwephulwa kwezimiso zentando yeningi, njengokuqaphela kweNkantolo Ephakeme Yobulungisa amaqembu athile ezombusazwe hhayi amanye. Kepha abagxeki abaningi abavamile ukwethula ubufakazi obubambekayo bokuthi amavoti angabalwanga ngendlela efanele, okubalulekile ekuchazeni uhulumeni njengondlovukayiphikiswa. Ukukhwabanisa okhethweni kuvame ukuhambisana nokungahambi kahle, njengoba kwenzeka okhethweni lukamongameli lwangaphambilini luka-2013 no-2018. Ukubiza uMaduro ngokuthi "umgunyathi," njengoba abaphikisi benza ngokuphindaphindiwe, kusekelwe ekucabangeni ukuthi ukukhwabanisa okhethweni kwenziwa kuzo zombili ukhetho.
U-Luis Vicente León, umcwaningi ohlonishwa kakhulu futhi ongumsekeli weqembu eliphikisayo, wagomela ngokuthi ingqikithi yentando yeningi izwe elihlinzeka “izimo ezifanayo kubo bonke abalingisi, lapho umlamuli kufanele angachemi . . . futhi izinsiza zomphakathi azisetshenziselwa noma ngubani.” U-León uqinisile ukusho ukuthi lo mthetho wegolide uyaphulwa - nakuba ngokwezinga elithile bekulokhu kunjalo, kusukela ekuqaleni kwentando yeningi yaseVenezuela.
UCarlos Ron uveza ukuthi, okungenani ngendlela eyodwa, inkundla itshekile ivuna abaphikisayo. “Umvoti wazi kahle kamhlophe ukuthi ngokukhetha kabusha i-PSUV, unswinyo luhlala lukhona. Umzuzu nje iqembu eliphikisayo libuyela emandleni azosuswa.” Leso sici sisodwa kungenzeka sinyakazise amavoti amaningi ngoDisemba.
USteve Ellner, uprofesa osewathatha umhlalaphansi e-Universidad de Oriente yaseVenezuela, ungumhleli ophethe we Imibono yaseLatin America kanye nomhleli wencwadi ezayo I-Latin American Extractivism: Ukuncika, I-Resource Nationalism, kanye Nokumelana Nombono Obanzi.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela