UMongameli Trump manje unempi yakhe. Ukuhlasela kwamaphekula okubili e-Iran okuhambile Abantu abangama-12 bafile amashothi ayo okuvula.
I-ISIS yathatha udumo ngokuhlaselwa, okufezile umgomo wayo wokudubula impi yamahlelo. Hhayi nje kwaqondana, lokhu kuhlasela kuphinde kwaqhubekisela phambili izinhloso zikaTrump zokwandisa ubutha baseMelika e-Iran.
UTrump wazuza njengefa izimpi e-Afghanistan, Iraq naseSyria, kanye nokuthula okubandayo ne-Iran okusekelwe esivumelwaneni samazwe ngamazwe sokukhawulela uhlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran. UTrump ulandela i- Isivumelwano ngenkathi sifuna izindlela zokuguqula ukuthula okubandayo kube impi eshisayo. Indlela yakhe: bophezela i-United States ukuthi ithathe uhlangothi emzabalazweni wezepolitiki osunesikhathi eside uphakathi kwe AmaSunni namaShia amasiko Islam.
Isizathu samaSunni sifakwe ebhange yiSaudi Arabia, izwe elicebe kakhulu esifundeni, elisanda kuthenga $ 110 billion inani lezikhali zase-US futhi lehlisela abesifazane ekubeni yisakhamuzi esisezingeni lesibili. AmaShiite aholwa yi-Iran emelene neMelika, enesibalo esikhulu sabantu bakulesi sifunda, Abesifazane abangu-17 ephalamende, kanye nomongameli ophakathi okhethwe ngokwentando yeningi, u-Hassan Rouhani.
Ukuvakasha kukaTrump eSaudi Arabia ngenyanga edlule bekungelona ihlaya mayelana ne- i-orb ekhanyayo. Kwakuwumkhandlu wempi, lapho uTrump ahlanganisa iMelika namaSunni futhi wamemezela impi kumaShiite. Futhi yisiphi isithakazelo esibalulekile sase-US esitholakala ngokuthatha uhlangothi empini yombango engokwenkolo eqhutshwa izinkulungwane zamakhilomitha ukusuka endaweni yaseMelika? Impendulo ihlala ingacacile futhi akuxoxwa ngayo eWashington.
NgoMeyi 22 wakhe amazwi abhaliwe eSaudi Arabia, uTrump ucaphune ubuphekula: โSekungamashumi eminyaka, i-Iran ibhebhezela imililo yezingxabano zamahlelo kanye nobushokobezi. Uhulumeni okhuluma ngokusobala ngokubulawa kwabantu abaningi, ufunga ngokubhujiswa kuka-Israyeli, ukufa kweMelika, kanye nencithakalo yabaholi nezizwe eziningi kuleli gumbi.โ
Kodwa wonke amaphekula ahlasele eManchester, eParis, eNew York naseWashington ayengama-Sunni. Akekho kubo owayexhumene ne-Iran. Ukuhlasela kwe-Iran kwabaseMelika nabaseNtshonalanga kwenzeka kakhulu ngeminyaka yawo-1980 kanye nama-90s. Kusukela ngo-2000, ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-95 abantu ababulawa amaphekula emhlabeni wonke baye babangelwa amasosha aphethwe yiSaudi Arabia. Inqubomgomo kaTrump isekelwe phezu kwesisekelo esingamanga.
I-ISIS Ithola Iphasi
Umkhuzi oyinhloko ongenalwazi futhi ophikisanayo uye waqondanisa i-United States nombuso ongokwasezulwini waseSaudi kanye nebutho layo lamazwe ngamazwe lamasosha angamaSunni ahamba ngezinyawo, aziwa nge-ISIS. Amasosha e-ISIS angamaWahhabists, azinikele esiko eliyisisekelo laseSaudi, elizonda ubuShiism, intando yeningi namalungelo abesifazane ngokuphambene nezifiso zika-Allah. I-ISIS iyabazonda abahlubuki base-Iran ngaphezu kokudelela abangakholwayo baseNtshonalanga.
Njengoba i-ISIS ilahlekelwe umhlaba e-Iraq naseSyria ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, yathembisa (ngevidiyo) ukushaya e-Iran okokuqala ngqa. Manje i-ISIS yenze kahle ezinsongweni zayo-futhi amasosha, uTrump athanda ukuwachaza ngokuthi "amaphekula amaSulumane amakhulu," athola ukudlula eWhite House.
Ngemuva kokuthi i-ISIS ithole udumo ngokubulala izingane ekhonsathini yomculo we-pop, uTrump wabhala kuTwitter ukucasuka kwakhe. Ngemuva kokuthi i-ISIS ihlasele izivakashi zase-Iranian kanye namaphalamende, uTrump ubhale kuTwitter mayelana uhambo lwakhe lokuya eCincinnati. I-White House kamuva yakhipha isitatimende esingazange khuluma nge-ISIS noma โubuphekula obunamandla obuSulumane,โ kodwa yathi โizifundazwe ezixhasa ubuphekula engcupheni yokuba yisisulu sobubi obubukhuthazayo,โ nokuyinto enhle kakhulu eyashiwo u-Osama bin Laden ngemva kokuhlasela kwangomhla ka-9/11.
Umongameli kungenzeka ukuthi ulahlekelwe ngokuziphatha, kepha umyalezo wakhe wezepolitiki awuguquki: ungagxeki abalingani baseSaudi abayisa impi e-Iran, okungenani hhayi ngamagama.
Impi Iyabhebhetheka
Ukudlondlobala kukaTrump kuthembisa impi eyengeziwe esifundeni esivele sijeziswe yizingxabano. Umkhankaso weSaudi Arabia wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu ngokumelene namadlelandawonye e-Iran eYemen, oqhutshwa ngezikhali ezihlinzekwe yi-US, udale inhlekelele yosizo lwabantu. Kungokufanayo nakuBashar al-Assad impi enonya kubantu bakhe kanye namavukelambuso e-ISIS axhaswe yi-Saudi.
Enganakile amaqiniso ayinkimbinkimbi akulesi sifunda, uTrump uthanda amalangabi empi nge-Twitter.
Izolo, uTrump uthathe isikweletu ngesinqumo seSaudi Arabia namanye amazwe asePersian Gulf sokunqamula ubudlelwano bezokuxhumana kanye nokuhamba ngendiza neQatar, i-emirate encane ecebile kuphela. 200,000 abantu. I-Qatar ukuphela kwezwe eliseGulf eligcina ubudlelwano ne-Iran. Umgomo uku phoqa iQatar ukulahla i-Iran, kungcono ukuhlanganisa amazwe amaSunni ukuze ingxabano ezayo.
Mayelana nokuhlukaniswa kweQatar, uTrump umemezele kahle:
Hhayi impela. Emahoreni ambalwa kamuva, i-ISIS yahlasela eTehran.
Ama-Flashpoints okufanele uwabuke
Ingxabano yamaSunni namaShiite isivele ibhebhetheka ezindaweni lapho i-United States ingase ingenelwe empini yombango yezenkolo. Ababili bayagqama.
I-Airbase ye-Al-Udeid eQatar: Isizinda sezempi esikhulu kunazo zonke sase-US esifundeni manje sesingathwe uhulumeni ozimele lapho i-United States, ilandela ukuhola kweSaudi, manje isisempini. UMnyango Wezwe, ngaphansi kobuholi obubi bukaRex Tillerson, ubonakale unjalo emangele ngalokhu kuthuthukiswa.
Umbutho wamasosha aseMelika uthi izindiza zawo ezingena futhi eziphuma kuCombined Air Operations Command zizoba โengathintekiโ ngomqondo wenhlekelele egcwele indawo. Iqiniso liwukuthi i-United States izwa kunesidingo sokukhipha izitatimende eziqinisekisayo ngoba ukuzinza sekuvule indawo yokungaqiniseki ngaphansi kwenqubomgomo kaTrump evusa inkanuko.
Ngabe uTrump ubengazi ukuthi izenzo zakhe zizonyusa izinga lokusabisa elibhekene namasosha ase-US? Noma wayehlose ukubeka amabutho ase-US empini? Akekho owaziyo ngoba sinolwazi oluncane ngokuthi uTrump wenze kanjani isinqumo sakhe. Womabili amathuba ayaphazamisa.
I-El Tanf eSiriya: Leli dolobha, elise- Umngcele waseSyria-Iraq, iyikhaya lesizinda saseMelika. NgoLwesibili, amasosha aseMelika abike ukuthi bahlaselwe abalingani yombuso waseSyria, okuhlanganisa namasosha ase-Iranian, okwesibili emasontweni amathathu ngemva kokuba bezishaya indiva izixwayiso zokusuka endaweni yase-US.
Abaphathi baseMelika abaphansi bafuna ukuvimbela amasosha ase-Iranian ekusebenziseni umgwaqo oya e-El Tanf njengolayini wokuphakela ovela kubalingani bawo abangamaShiite e-Iraq. Lokho kuzoqinisa isikhundla sabo njengoba becindezela impi ye-ISIS enyakatho yeSyria.
Ngamanye amazwi, i-United States manje ukwandisa ukuhlasela phambili amabutho ase-Iranian alwa ne-ISIS. Ukulwa ne-Iran, izenzo zikaTrump zinciphisa ingcindezi ku-ISIS.
Lokhu kusha. Ngaphambi kokuthi uTrump angene esikhundleni, umfelandawonye oholwa yi-US wawugxile ku-ISIS (eyaziwa nangokuthi esifundeni ngokuthi ISIL noma i-Daesh) futhi akazange aqale ukulwa namasosha ase-Iranian nawo alwa ne-ISIS. Lokho manje kuyashintsha, ngenxa yethonya Lomeluleki Wezokuphepha Kuzwelonke HR McMaster kanye noNobhala Wezokuvikela UJames Mattis, bobabili abangama-hawkish e-Iran.
UBarbara Slavin, intatheli ye-Middle East yephephandaba i-Al-Monitor, usho lokho okusobala esifundeni.
Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi kwenzekani nje, ukuhlasela kweTehran kwaba umphumela wokuqonda kwe-US-Saudi okwasungulwa ngenyanga edlule. Ngenkathi iCongress iphikisana, uTrump ubhebhethekisa impi yezenkolo futhi ubuphekula buphula omunye umngcele.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela