Izigigaba zombuso kanye nezebhizinisi zabaphathi bakaBush kule minyaka eyishumi edlule ziye zafakazela ukuthi umhlaba ubungaba ngcono kakhulu ngaphandle US ukuphazamiseka. I-China, njengamandla amasha akhulayo, kufanele ixwaye ukuthi ingaphindaphindi amaphethini amadala okubusa aseNtshonalanga.
Ngaphandle kokucwebezela obekuzungeza womabili ama-Olympics Beijing kanye neNgqungquthela Kazwelonke ye-Democratic ngo Denver,imiyalezo eza kuyo Asia kusukela kulezi zenzakalo ezimbili zazihluke kakhulu.
Kusukela Beijing umlayezo wawuwukuthi, ukuwubeka emazwini ochwepheshe oyedwa, China ibe namakhulu eminyaka amabi ambalwa kodwa isibuyile. Kusuka Denver, izwi laliwukuthi I-united states ibisesimweni esibi seminyaka eyishumi esingaba sibi kakhulu uma amaRiphabhulikhi egcina i-White House.
Kubantu abakule ngxenye yomhlaba, ukuncipha kwamandla e-US kubonakala kakhulu kwezinye izindawo: eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNingizimu-ntshonalanga ye-Asia, lapho iWashington igcwele izimpi ezingapheli e-Iraq nase-Afghanistan; e-Latin America, lapho ukuvukela umbuso we-neoliberalism kanye nokugxambukela kwe-US kugcwele amandla; futhi, muva nje, e-Asia Ephakathi, lapho iWashington kanye neNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) befundiswe isifundo esibuhlungu ekwandiseni ngokweqile eGeorgia.
Ukuguguleka kwe WashingtonIsimo sika 's asibonakali kangako Asia. Ngemuva kwakho konke, i I-united states iyaqhubeka nokugcina izizinda nezinsiza zamasosha ezingaphezu kuka-300 eNtshonalanga Pacific. Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, isungule ukuba khona kwamasosha unomphela eNingizimu yePhilippines ukuze ivale isikhala sayo sokunikela ngezisekelo zayo ezimbili ezinkulu zempi. Luzon Island ngo-1992. Futhi ku Indonesia, i-Pentagon isibuyisele ubudlelwano bayo obuseduze nebutho lezempi lase-Indonesia ngemva kweminyaka embalwa yokungaqiniseki, isebenzisa ithuba elinikezwe imisebenzi yokusiza ngesikhathi se-tsunami ka-2004.
Ukuguguleka kwe US Amandla e-East Asia
Noma kunjalo, isifunda - kanye neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ikakhulukazi - cishe izimele kakhulu I-united states namuhla kunanoma yisiphi esinye isikhathi kule minyaka engu-60 edlule. I-Economics yisizathu. Emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule, intuthuko eminingi iye yacekela phansi US Isikhundla.
Okokuqala nje, umkhankaso wayo wokudala indawo yokuhweba mahhala e-Trans-Pacific eyaziwa ngokuthi i-Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) yehlulekile. I-APEC yayihloselwe ukuba ibe isandiso esisentshonalanga se-North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), futhi zombili zazihloselwe ukusebenza njenge-geo-economic counterweight ku-European Union. Japan, China, kanye ne-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), besaba US ukubusa komnotho egameni lohwebo olukhululekile, kushabalalise iphupho likaMengameli uBill Clinton lokunqamula iPacific eNgqungqutheleni ye-APEC Osaka ngo-1995. Izingqungquthela ze-APEC ziyaqhubeka nokubanjwa, kodwa lezi zikhunjulwa kakhulu njengezikhathi lapho izinhloko zemibuso zifaka imvunulo yezwe elisingathayo kunezikhathi zokuthatha izinqumo ezibucayi kwezomnotho.
Okwesibili, US imizamo yokuphoqelela i-akhawunti yemali kanye nokukhululwa kwezezimali emnothweni wase-Asia Pacific njengengxenye eyinhloko yoguquko lwesakhiwo oluqhubekayo ibhuntshile. Ukukhululwa kwe-akhawunti yemali kwaholela enkingeni yezezimali yase-Asia ka-1997-1998. Esikhundleni sokusiza ukusimamisa umnotho osenkingeni, Washington wasebenzisa leli thuba lenhlekelele ukuzama ukuguqula ngokuphelele umnotho wesifunda ngokuhambisana nemigqa ye-neoliberal. Njengenye ye ClintonAbaphathi bezomnotho bakubona lokhu, "Iningi lala mazwe lidlula emhubheni omnyama nojulile...Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi kuzoba khona okuhluke kakhulu. Asia lapho amafemu aseMelika ezuze ukungena ezimakethe okujule kakhulu, ukufinyelela okukhulu kakhulu."
Umphumela wabonakala uhlukile. Malaysia izilawuli zemali ezibekiwe. I-International Monetary Fund (IMF) yachithwa, uhulumeni waseThailand wamemezela inhloso yakhe yokungaphinde abuyele ejensi ngemuva kokukhokha imali ebolekiwe ngo-2003 futhi uhulumeni wase-Indonesia wanquma ukwenza into efanayo ngo-2008. Nakuba iWashington ne-IMF ekwazi ukubulala JapanIsiphakamiso se-Asian Monetary Fund (AMF) ngesikhathi sobunzima, ohulumeni base-East Asia bakha indlela yezimali "ASEAN Plus Three" engafaki I-united states futhi kungenzeka ibe umanduleli we-ejensi yezimali yesifunda egcwele umoya. Uguquko lwe-Neoliberal lumile Japan kanye namazwe amaningi aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, okungenzeka kuphela INingizimu Korea ukuqhubeka nokuhamba ngendlela yemakethe yamahhala efunwa yi I-united states.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ohulumeni base-Asia bazakhele izimali ezinkulu zokuhwebelana kwamanye amazwe ukuze bazivikele ezinkingeni eziqagelwe ezizayo ezivuswa umnyakazo wezimali zomhlaba wonke oholwa US izimali. Futhi i I-united states selincike kulezi zindawo ezigciniwe zase-Asia ukuze uthole imali yokusekela izindleko zayo ezinkulu zempi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali kwabasezingeni eliphakathi okwasebenza isikhathi eside njengomgoqo wokwenziwa wokulwa nokuwohloka komnotho. Ngokudalulwa kwezikhungo zezimali zaseMelika, ukuqala kokuwohloka komnotho, kanye nokwehla kwedola, US umnotho usuphenduke isithunjwa sezinqumo zala mazwe zokuqhubeka nokuboleka iWashington neWall Street.
Ekuthuthukisweni kwesithathu okungalungile kwe I-united states, lesi sifunda sesithembele kakhulu esitimeleni sezomnotho saseShayina esishisayo. Ngokombiko weNhlangano Yezizwe, China kube "injini enkulu yokukhula kweminotho eminingi esifundeni. Ukuthengwa kwezwe kwanda ngesivinini ngaphezu kokuthunyelwa kwayo ngaphandle, ingxenye enkulu ivela kwamanye amazwe. Asia." Eqinisweni, lesi sidingo saseShayina sakhipha umnotho wase-Asia Pacific ekuwohlokeni komnotho okubangelwe yinkinga yezimali yase-Asia. China akagcinanga ngokudlula i I-united states ukuba JapanUzakwethu oyinhloko wokuhweba kodwa isidingo samaShayina sisize ukugcina umnotho wesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni ekuweni komnotho.
Ukuqaphela ukubaluleka kwayo kwezomnotho, China ithuthe ukuze ihlanganise isikhundla sayo njenge E-East Asiaisikhungo esisha sezomnotho nge-smart economic diplomacy. Ngo-2002, yaqinisekisa ohulumeni base-ASEAN ukuthi bakhe i-ASEAN-China Free Trade Area ehlelelwe ukuthi iqale ukusebenza ngo-2010. Japan izamile ukubamba ngokunikeza amazwe ase-ASEAN "izivumelwano zokubambisana kwezomnotho." Khonamanjalo, izingxoxo ngendawo yokuhweba yamahhala yase-US-Thailand ziphonswe ukuphikiswa okudumile WashingtonUkulwela ngokuqinile lokho okubizwa ngamalungelo empahla yobuhlakani bezinkampani zayo. Sekukonke, umzuzi omkhulu wezinhlekelele zombuso kanye nezinkampani zokuphatha kukaBush kule minyaka eyishumi edlule kube. China, esiye sazigcina ekungeneni kwezempi futhi sazinikela nganhliziyonye ekuthuthukisweni komnotho.
Izinselelo Ezibangelwa ChinaI-Ascent
Ukuphakama China ibeka izinselelo eziningi ezibalulekile kubalingisi ababalulekile abahlukene E-East Asia.
Ukuze Japan, inselele eyinhloko ukusuka ekubeni yi-springboard US ukuqagela kwamandla esifundeni ukuya ebudlelwaneni obuvuthiwe ne China. Ukwemukelwa okuqinisekile komthwalo wemfanelo ohlangothini lwabantu baseJapane nabaholi babo ngonya olwenziwa amasosha aseJapane phakathi neMpi Yezwe II, okuhlanganisa neNanjing Massacre edume kabi, kuyisinyathelo esibalulekile kulokhu kusondela ebudlelwaneni obuvuthiwe phakathi Asia's ehola amandla kwezomnotho.
Ukuze Southeast Asia, inselele iwukuthi ungakugwema kanjani ukuba ingxenye yomnotho waseShayina. Isidingo samaShayina, njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, sasiphakamisa amandla amakhulu Southeast Asiaumnotho kusukela ekujuleni kwezinkinga zezimali zase-Asia. Nokho, ChinaUkuthuthukisa ubudlelwano bokuhwebelana nokutshalwa kwezimali ne-ASEAN kuhlanganisa nezinto ezingajabulisi, ngokwesibonelo ulwazi lwabakhiqizi baseThailand bemifino nezithelo ngaphansi kwelungiselelo lohwebo lwamahhala "lokuvuna ngaphambi kwesikhathi" China ekuqaleni kwale minyaka eyishumi. Ngaphansi kwesivumelwano, Thailand kulindeleke ukuthi kuthekelise izithelo zasezindaweni ezishisayo China ngenkathi kuqedwa intela yokuthengwa kwezithelo zasebusika ezivela kwamanye amazwe China. Okulindelekile kokuhlomula ngokuhlanganyela kwahwamuka ngemva kwezinyanga ezimbalwa, nokho, njengokungeniswa okukhulu okuvela ngaphandle China waqothula abakhiqizi baseThailand bezithelo nemifino eminingi efana nogalikhi no-anyanisi obomvu.
Kodwa ukwesaba kwabaningi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kudlulela ngale kwezivumelwano zohwebo eziphambene ne China. Ngomhlaba namandla ayivelakancane China, Beijing ukhuthaze amabhizinisi aseShayina ukuthi afune izivumelwano zokumba izimbiwa phansi futhi atshale izitshalo emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ukuze zithunyelwe emazweni angaphandle kuphela. China imakethe. Isibonelo, ekuhlanganyeleni ne- Philippines, i-Chinese Fuhua Group ihlela ukutshala imali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.83 eminyakeni emihlanu kuya kweyisikhombisa ukuze kuthuthukiswe amahektha ayizigidi ezingu-1 ukuze kutshalwe izinhlobo ezikhiqiza kakhulu zommbila, irayisi namabele. Uhulumeni wasePhilippine okwamanje uhlonza "izindawo ezingasebenzi" ezingafakwa kulawa masimu aseShayina. Lokhu ezweni lapho abalimi abayisikhombisa kwabayishumi bengenamhlaba.
Abanye basheshe bafona ChinaIzinqubomgomo zezomnotho zamazwe ngamazwe "imperialistic." Nokho, ubudlelwano bokuxhaphaza phakathi China kanye namanye amazwe asathuthuka awakasitholi isakhiwo sombuso futhi antula isici samandla nokuphoqelela okuhambisana nokubekelwa amandla ezomnotho aseYurophu nawaseMelika emiphakathini ebuthaka.
Noma kunjalo, ohulumeni baseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia badinga ukulinganisa imizwa yabo ezenzakalelayo yobumbano lwaseNingizimu-Ningizimu kanye neqiniso elipholile. Amazwe athanda China, Brazil, Futhi India ziholwa ngabaqwayizi bentuthuko abafuna ukuthola indawo yabo ohlelweni olusha lonxiwankulu emhlabeni wonke oluphawulwa ukuxegiswa kokuqina kwezomnotho kwezikhungo ezindala zonxiwankulu, okungukuthi, Japan, lo I-united states, kanye ne-European Union. Ukuphishekela izithakazelo zezomnotho kazwelonke, hhayi ukubambisana kwesifunda ukuze kuthuthukiswe, kuwukukhathazeka okuyinhloko kwalaba abakhethekile. Inhloso ye China, India, Futhi Brazil ekukhuthazeni izivumelwano zohwebo nokutshalwa kwezimali namazwe amancane noma ukuwashela ukuze ajoyine ukwakheka komnotho wesifunda ukuthuthukisa ezawo izinhloso zesifunda nezomhlaba.
Kodwa-ke, lokhu akusho ukuthi isivumelwano sokuhwebelana kanye nokwakhiwa komnotho wesifunda okuxhumanisayo China futhi i-ASEAN kufanele igwenywe ngazo zonke izindleko. Kunalokho, ohulumeni base-ASEAN kumele bangene ezingxoxweni China amehlo evulekile futhi axoxisane ngokuhlanganyela, hhayi njengohulumeni abayi-10 abahlukene. Kumelwe bakwenze kucace e-China ukuthi abasifisi isivumelwano sohwebo esisekelwe ekuhwebeni kwamahhalaโnjengamalungiselelo i-US, EU, ne-Japan abacindezelayo - kodwa okuyilapho izinzuzo zensalela zaleli lungiselelo zitholwa khona. bona, hhayi iShayina. Nakuba ubudlelwano beShayina neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia bungaxhashazi, ukuxoxisana kobudlelwano bezomnotho phakathi kweBeijing nomakhelwane bayo kungase kuphinde kufane namaphethini esakhiwo esidala aphawula ubudlelwano phakathi kweNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ne-Europe, i-United States, ne-Japan - ngaphandle uma ukucatshangelwa kokulingana kuphambili futhi kumaphakathi. .
Ubudlelwano be-US-China
Ubudlelwano besifunda obubucayi kakhulu, nokho, buphakathi kwe I-united states futhi China selokhu I-united states ingamandla anamandla kakhulu eMpumalanga Asia futhi China elandelayo enamandla kakhulu.
Encwadini yakhe ekhuthazayo u-Adam Smith in Beijing, isazi sezomnotho esidumile u-Giovanni Arrighi we UJohns Hopkins University ubhala ukuthi kunezinye izinqubomgomo ezintathu ezihlukile I-united states angamukela abheke phezulu China.
Eyokuqala inguqulo ebuyekeziwe yesu lokunqanda leMpi Yamakhaza. Kuleli qhinga, China kubonakala njengokusongela kwamasu noma, njengoba abaphathi bakaBush bekubeka ngokuzwakalayo, "umqhudelani wamasu." Impendulo yase-US izoba "ukuyekisa iChina" ezifisweni zayo zezempi ngokuthuthukisa ubukhona bezempi baseMelika eNtshonalanga Pacific, iqinise izivumelwano zamazwe amabili nabasebenzisana ne-US abasekela lesi sifunda senqaba yasePacific, kanye nokwakha ukubambisana kwezokuvikela neNdiya, Amanye amandla amakhulu ase-Asia. Le mpendulo ayiqondi kahle ubunjalo benselelo yaseShayina, engokomnotho kunokuba ibe yamasu, futhi engaba yinhlekelele emhlabeni wonke.
Ngokwesu lesibili, i-United States ikhetha ukungabhekani neChina ngokuqondile njengoba ibhekene neSoviet Union endala kodwa ukufaka ukulingana kwamandla ezombusazwe ukuze yenze buthaka iChina ngokungaqondile. U-Arrighi ucaphuna uJames Pinkerton, umlingiswa wale ndlela: Esikhundleni sokubhekana ngqo namandla ase-Asia akhulayo, I-united states kufanele bazidlalele komunye nomunye. Njengoba isisho sesiLatini esithi tertium gaudens - owesithathu ojabulisayo - usikhumbuza, kunokuba singene phakathi nayo yonke impi, ngezinye izikhathi kungcono "ukubamba amajazi alabo abakwenzayo." Okwe US intshisekelo kazwelonke, "i-Asia engcono ingaba yileyo lapho China, India, Japan, futhi mhlawumbe nenye 'ingwe' noma ababili babanga amandla kuyilapho sijabulela ukunethezeka okujabulisayo kokuma eceleni kwenkampani yangaphandle." Leli su, nalo, lingaba nemiphumela emibi kakhulu endaweni.
Isu lesithathu, u-Arrighi alihlonza nabeluleki bangaphambili bezokuphepha kuzwelonke u-Henry Kissinger kanye no-Zbigniew Brzezinski, alibuki i-China njengamandla okubuyekeza kodwa njengelinye elifuna ukujoyina isimo somhlaba wonke. Impendulo efanelekile ye Washington ukwamukela China njengengxenye yeqembu elicokeme lohlelo lombuso womhlaba wonke futhi basebenze nalo ekuphishekeleni uzinzo lwamazwe ngamazwe, ngendlela efanayo eBrithani, i-hegemon yekhulu le-19, yabambisana futhi yenza indlela ye- I-united states, i-hegemon yekhulu lama-20.
U-Arrighi uthanda leli su lesithathu. Nami ngiyakwenza, nakuba ngingenamdlandla njengoba sisabambelele, sigcina isimo somhlaba wonke. Leli su, nokho, mancane amathuba okuthi lamukelwe kulawa amathathu. I-Imperial neMelika akufani nombuso eBrithani. The I-united states ngokwengqondo iyintando yeningi yezithunywa zevangeli enwebekayo ezokuthola kunzima ukwamukela isimo sikaNo. Ngaphandle kwezithakazelo ezinamandla zebhizinisi kanye namasu - ezifisa indawo yokuhlala neChina - abaholi baseMelika banomfutho wobumesiya wokwenza umhlaba kabusha uhambisane nentando yeningi ye-Lockean ekhululekile noma ye-neoliberal.
Civil Umphakathi, China, Futhi neMelika
Le mpikiswano iholela engxoxweni yokuthi umphakathi, e-Asia nasemhlabeni jikelele, kufanele usabele kanjani ekugugulekeni komhlaba. US hegemony kanye nokukhuphuka kwe China. Emhlabeni omuhle kunayo yonke engenzeka, i-United States ne-China bangaba abasekeli bomkhankaso wokudala uhlelo olusha lomhlaba olwakhelwe phezu kokuthula, ubulungisa, kanye nobukhosi obudumile. Ngeshwa, siphila emhlabeni ongalungile.
Umsebenzi womphakathi uwukucindezela China, njengoba iqinisa ukusebenzelana kwayo nezwe, ukumelana nesilingo sokulandela indlela yombuso ebhubhisayo eshiswe yiYurophu kanye I-united states. Izinhlangano zomphakathi nazo kumele ziphushe China kude nendlela yentuthuko egxile kuphethiloli, egxile ekusetshenzisweni eyasungulwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga futhi ibheke kuleyo ekwazi ukusimamisa imvelo futhi ezwelayo ezindabeni zokulingana. Lokhu ngeke kube lula. Noma kunjalo, zikhona izimpawu zethemba. Isibonelo nje, abaholi baseShayina njengamanje bacabanga kabusha indlela yentuthuko yezwe. Impendulo ivela ku- Arrighi:
Uma ukuqondiswa kabusha kuphumelela ekuvuseleleni nasekuhlanganiseni Chinaamasiko okuzithuthukisa okusekelwe ezimakethe, ukuqongelela ngaphandle kokuphucwa umhlaba, ukuhlanganisa izinsiza zabantu kunokuba okungezona ezabantu, kanye nohulumeni ngokubamba iqhaza kwabantu abaningi ekubumbeni izinqubomgomo, ngakho-ke amathuba China bayoba sesimweni sokufaka isandla ngokuqinile ekuqhamukeni komphakathi wempucuko ohlonipha ngempela umehluko. Kodwa, uma ukulungiswa kabusha kwehluleka, China ingase iphenduke isizinda esisha sesiphithiphithi sezenhlalo nezepolitiki esizosiza imizamo yaseNyakatho yokuvuselela ukubusa komhlaba wonke okuwohlokayo.
Uma kubhekwa ukukhathazeka kobuholi baseShayina ngokuba semthethweni ngaphakathi nangaphandle, ukwehluleka kwabasekeli bokuqondiswa kabusha akusona isiphetho esivele sikhona. Kungakho ingcindezi evela ezinhlanganweni zomphakathi zamazwe ngamazwe yokuguqula isu lezomnotho, izinqubomgomo ezisekela imvelo, ukwandiswa kwamalungelo entando yeningi, kanye nobudlelwano obulinganayo namazwe asathuthuka kufanele igcinwe.
Ukubheka I-New American Isolationism
Ukuphonsela i-Washington's innately hegemonic thrust kuzoba nzima kakhulu - kodwa kungenzeki.
Mhlawumbe isu elingcono kakhulu lenhlangano yomphakathi kuleli phuzu alikona kakhulu ukuthembela ekunxuseni emibonweni yaseMelika kodwa ukukhomba ngokuqhubekayo izindleko eziphakeme kakhulu zokungenelela, mayelana namasosha abulewe, imali esetshenzisiwe, izingxabano zasekhaya, nokulahlekelwa ukwethembeka. Ingxenye yalelisu kumele kube ingcindezi ukususwa US izisekelo zamasosha ezivela e-Asia nasePacific kanye nokuncishiswa kwezivumelwano zamazwe amabili phakathi kwe I-united states kanye nenani lamazwe ase-Asia. Ngaphandle kokuba yizinsika ze WashingtonUkugcinwa kwe China, lezi zikhungo ziyizici eziyinhloko ezivimbela China kanye namanye amazwe aseMpumalanga Asia kusukela ekuthuthukiseni ubudlelwano obuvuthiwe.
Ngokubanzi, inhloso yokuhlanganisa umphakathi kokubili ku Asia futhi emhlabeni jikelele kufanele kube ukukhuthaza i-American isolationism entsha. U-Barack Obama uncamela kakhulu kuno-John McCain, kodwa umhlaba awudingi ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kwaseMelika okusha kwezinhlobonhlobo zamandla akhululekile nathambile. Akufanele sibekezelele umgomo wokuhoxisa amasosha kuwo Iraq ukubathumela kuphela Afghanistan egameni lokuvikela amalungelo abantu. Asifuni esikhundleni sokungqubuzana kwezempi, ukuhlukaniswa okunolaka kwezombusazwe Iran eholwa iDemocratic elite engagxeki, njengoba enjalo u-Obama, we Israel. Asifuni ukuthatheka nge-Middle East ukuthi kuthathelwe indawo yinkanuko yokudicilela phansi u-Hugo Chavez nokubuyisela US ithonya ku i-Latin America. Futhi kufanele sikhathazeke lapho uBill Clinton ethi, njengoba enza ngesikhathi somhlangano weDemocratic Party, ukuthi enye yezinhloso zika-Obama kuzoba "ukubuyisela ubuholi baseMelika emhlabeni." Asia akabudingi noma akabufuni ubuholi baseMelika.
Okudingwa yi-Asia, njengawo wonke umhlaba, iholide kumesiya I-united states. Amashumi ambalwa eminyaka omuntu ohoxile, ozicabangela yena yedwa, ozihlukanisa yedwa neMelika, ukunaka izinkinga zayo zasekhaya kanye nokuvinjelwa izindleko eziphakeme zokuphishekela i-hegemony emhlabeni jikelele, kungaba kuhle esifundeni futhi kube kuhle kuwo wonke umuntu.
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