Kule minyaka embalwa edlule, abezindaba base-US, osolwazi, kanye nabaxolisi babo bobabili osopolitiki abakhululekile nabanodlame e-US baye bagxumela kuzo zonke izinkomba zalokhu noma leyo nkomba yezomnotho yanyanga zonke ekhombisa ukuthuthuka. I-hype eyalandela ngokuvamile imemezele ukuthi 'ukuthola kabusha kwase kuyaqhubeka ngokuqinile'. Lokho kube 'i-mantra' yabezindaba manje iminyaka emine edlule. Isikhathi ngasinye, izindaba ezinhle zesikhashana zazihlehliswa, nokho, okuveza umnotho wase-US wawungekho esimeni sokusimama komnotho, kodwa esikhundleni salokho 'ugxuma phansi', ukhula ngezinga elivame ukuba yingxenye yezinzuzo zokuwohloka komnotho esikhathini esidlule.
Kuleli hlobo 2013 kube okufanayo. Nakulokhu kusaqhubeka ukushaya kwesigubhu, abezindaba, osolwazi kanye nosopolitiki bebambe ongezansi ukuze bathole ubufakazi obuncane bokuthuthukiswa komnotho, okubuye kwaphonswa ukumela umbono wokuthi ukusimama komnotho okusimeme sekuqalile. Lo mbono wakamuva wokuthi futhi 'ukuthola kabusha kuyaqhubeka' kusekelwe ukuchazwa kabusha okukhulu kwe-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) yi-Bureau of Economic Analysis, i-ejensi kahulumeni wase-US enesibopho sokukhipha idatha ye-GDP, kulo Julayi odlule 2013. ' i-stroke of the pen', i-GDP ka-2012 yenyuka ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-559, kanti izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP lika-2012 licishe libe ingxenye yesithathu.
Kodwa ukubhekisisa umnotho wase-US onyakeni odlule, ngoJulayi 2012 kuya kuJulayi 2013, kuveza ukuthambekela kwesikhathi eside komnotho wase-US untengantenga, ongakhuli—nokuthi naphezu kwezibuyekezo zakamuva zakamuva ze-GDP ephepheni okwenziwa nguMnyango kahulumeni wase-US. ye-Economic Analysis, BEA.
I-US Economy 2012-2013
Uma kubhekwa i-GDP yonyaka wekhalenda wezi-2012, umnotho wase-US ukhule ngesilinganiso esingu-2.2% kuphela–okungukuthi cishe uhhafu ukuya kokuthathu kokuthathu kwalokho okubhekwa njengokukhula okuvamile ezinyangeni ezingama-39 ngemuva kokuphela ngokusemthethweni kokuwohloka komnotho ngoJuni 2009, uma kuqhathaniswa ukuwohloka komnotho oku-10 kwangaphambilini e-US kusukela ngo-1947. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngisho nangemva kokubuyekezwa kwe-GDP kule nyanga edlule, umnotho wase-US ukhule ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili zokugcina-phakathi kukaJulayi 2012 noJuni 2013-ngesilinganiso sonyaka esisebuthakathaka esingu-1.4%.
Ngemuva kwezinga lokukhula elingu-3.1% ngekota yesithathu ngonyaka odlule, wezi-2012, umnotho ucishe wama ngokuphelele ngekota yesine eyalandela, uMfumfu-Zibandlela, lapho ukhule kancane ngo-2012%. Lokhu kulandelwe ngekota yokuqala ka-0.4 yinani le-GDP yonyaka elingu-2013% kanye no-1.1 wakamuva kakhulu.nd ngekota, Ephreli-Juni 2013, ngo-1.7%. Lesi silinganiso sakamuva, sokuqala se-GDP, cishe sizobuyekezwa ngokwehle sibe ngaphansi kuka-1.7% ezinguqulweni ezilandelayo ze-GDP yesibili neyesithathu ezizayo.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi izinga elibuthakathaka kakhulu, elinciphayo, elingu-1.4% ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezilandelanayo belizoba ngaphansi kakhulu uma kunentuthuko ekhethekile, yesikhathi esisodwa engazange ikhulise i-GDP okwesikhashana kumakota amabili okugcina ka-2012.
Ngokwesibonelo, ku-3rd ikota ka-2012 i-GDP inyuke ngo-3.1%. Kodwa ukukhula kwanqunywa kakhulu ukwanda okukhulu kwezindleko zikahulumeni, ikakhulukazi izindleko zokuvikela. Osopolitiki ngokuvamile bagxila ekusebenziseni imali ngaphambi kokhetho lukazwelonke kanti nango-2012 kwaba okufanayo. Ukunyuka kwezindleko zombuso ngesikhathi esisodwa ngokusobala kwaba ukuphambuka endleleni yokusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni yesikhathi eside kusukela ngo-2010, obekwehla kusukela ngo-2011 njalo ngekota. Okufanayo kuphathelene nokusetshenziswa kwemali kukahulumeni wesifunda nowasekhaya.
The 3rd ukwanda kwezindleko zokuvikela zekota ka-2012 kubuyele enkambweni yayo yesikhathi eside ku-4th Ikota ka-2012. Umnotho kanye ne-GDP kwabe sekwehla ngokushesha kwafinyelela ezingeni elincane lika-0.4% we-GDP, ngemva kokubuyekezwa okungaphezulu kusuka ekwehleni kwangempela -0.1%. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi -0.1% noma u-0.4%, uma kulinganiswa no-3.1% wekota eyandulele, umphumela waba cishe u-1.7%–okube ukukhula okumaphakathi konyaka kule minyaka emibili nengxenye edlule.
The 4th ingxenye yesine ibizoba ngaphansi nakakhulu ukube bekungengenxa yokwanda kwezindleko zebhizinisi ezinsizakalweni zokulindela ukwenyuswa kwentela okungenzeka kube khona ngezingxoxo 'zokwehla kwezimali' ezihlelelwe ukuphothulwa ngoJanuwari 1, 2013. Kodwa lokho kunyuka kwezindleko zemishini yebhizinisi ngasekupheleni kuka-2012 nakho kwafakazela. okwesikhashana futhi, ukucaba kanye nokwehla ngekota yokuqala ka-2013.
Esinye isenzakalo esisodwa-ke senzeke ngo-1st ikota ka-2013: ukukhuphuka kokunwetshwa kwempahla yebhizinisi, okubalele u-1.5% ophelele wesamba esingu-2.5% we-1st I-GDP yekota ka-2013 (kusukela manje isibuyekezwe yehlela ku-1.8% futhi yaphinde yafinyelela ku-1.1%). Leso senzakalo esiyingqayizivele sesikhathi esisodwa sokuqoqwa kwempahla kamuva sanyamalala ku-2nd ikota 2013.
The 2nd Ikota 2013
Kwikota yakamuva, ngo-Ephreli-Juni 2013, umnotho wase-US ukhule ngokushesha ngo-1.7%. Lokho kukhula kugxilwe kakhulu emkhakheni wokutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi lomnotho, okuthuthukiswe kakhulu izinguquko zencazelo ye-GDP yi-BEA egxile kakhulu ekushintsheni kokutshalwa kwezimali. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukhuphuke ngo-4.6% kwikota yesibili. Ukuthi yimalini leyo bekuyitshalomali yangempela, nokuthi yimalini ngenxa yokuchazwa kabusha kukahulumeni kokutshalwa kwezimali, kusazobonakala. Kepha ngokubuyekezwa kwe-GDP kwengeza ama- $ 559 billion ku-2012 US GDP, kungenzeka ukuthi i-2nd idatha yekota ka-2013 ye-GDP ka-1.7% yokukhula kwaba ngokuphawulekayo ngenxa yokuchazwa kabusha kwe-GDP ye-BEA.
Ukusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi nakho kube nomthelela ekukhuleni kwekota yesibili yakamuva kakhulu okungu-1.7% okusengaphansi kokukhula kokuvamile. Umnikelo wayo ugqugquzelwe kakhulu ukusetshenziswa kwezimoto kanye nokwakhiwa kwezindlu zokuhlala. Kodwa ngeke kubonakale ukusetshenziswa kwezindlu noma okuzenzakalelayo kuzoqhubeka ngezinga lokukhula langaphambilini ukuya ku-2013. Nasi isizathu:
Izindlu zokuhlala 'zashayisa udonga' maphakathi noJuni 2013, ukuphendula izimemezelo zenqubomgomo ye-Federal Reserve kanye namazinga emali ebolekiwe akhuphuka ngaphezu kuka-1% esikhathini esingamaviki. Kusukela maphakathi noJuni, izicelo zezindlu ezibolekiwe zehle amasonto ayisikhombisa elandelana futhi umsebenzi wokubuyisela imali ekhaya wehle ngo-57% waba phansi ngeminyaka emibili. Kungenzeka ukuthi umnikelo wezindlu zokuhlala ku-GDP ngemuva kwalokhu uzokwehla kakhulu, unciphise ukukhula ngo-2013. Ngaleso sikhathi, umsebenzi wokwakha ezentengiselwano nohulumeni uqhubeke nokuntenga kwawo kweminyaka emi-5 nokwehla.
Mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwemali kwezimoto, yini ukukhula okuqinile ekusetshenzisweni kwemali ezimotweni kubonakala muva nje ngoJulayi ukuthi kuhlehle kakhulu. Ukuthengiswa kwamaloli kuphela okukhulayo, okugqugquzelwa ukwanda kwezindlu kwangaphambilini, njengoba kuphawuliwe, kungase kuphele njengoba izinga lenzalo cishe lizonyuka ngokuqhubekayo ngo-2013. Ngakho-ke ukuthengiswa kwamaloli kungalindeleka ukuthi kwehle nakho.
Isici esibalulekile nesibalulekile esinqunyiwe sokusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi iholo kanye nokukhula kwemali engenayo, futhi lokho kuyaqhubeka nokwehla isikhathi eside, njengoba kwenzekile eminyakeni emine edlule kuwo wonke amakhaya acebe kakhulu. Ngonyaka wezi-2012 isabelo samaholo sesamba semali engenayo yezwe sehle safinyelela ezingeni eliphansi lama-43.5%, sehle sisuka ku-50% ngo-2000. Kuze kube manje ngo-2013 ukwehla kuqhubekile.
Isici esibaluleke kakhulu sokukhula kwamaholo—kanye nokusetshenziswa kwabathengi—ukuqashwa. Kodwa lapha isithombe asisihle neze, naphezu kwazo zonke izidumo mayelana nokwakhiwa kwamathuba emisebenzi kulo nyaka e-US. Ezinyangeni eziyisikhombisa zokuqala zika-2013, uMasingana kuya kuJulayi, kudaleke amathuba emisebenzi angaba ngu-900,000. Lokho cishe inani elifanayo labasanda kungena embuthweni wabasebenzi base-US, okwenzeka ku-150,000 ngenyanga. Ngakho-ke umnotho awubatholi nje abasha abangenayo. Nokho, isithombe sangempela sibi kakhulu mayelana nokukhula kwamaholo okuqhutshwa umsebenzi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali kwabathengi. Cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zalokho kukhula kwemisebenzi engu-900,000 kumele izisebenzi zesikhashana, ezihola uhhafu futhi ezingatholi nzuzo. Umnotho wase-US udala iholo eliphansi, isevisi, itoho kanye nemisebenzi yesikhashana. Imisebenzi yesikhathi esigcwele, ehola kakhulu kanye nezinzuzo, yehle kusukela ngoJanuwari ngaphezu kwezi-250,000. Lokhu kuchaza ingxenye enkulu yokwehla kwamaholo kanye nesabelo semali engenayo emakhaya esigaba sabasebenzi naphezu kokukhula okuncane kwamaholo. Ngokwezinga ukusetshenziswa kwemali komthengi okwenzeke ngalo, lokho kusetshenziswa kubonakala ikakhulukazi kubangelwa isikweletu nesikweletu.
Lokho kushiya ibhizinisi Ukutshalwa kwezimali njengento enkulu esithombeni sekota yesi-2 ka-2013 yase-US kanye nezinga lokukhula kwalo elivele libuthakathaka ngo-1.7%. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kuphawuliwe ngaphambilini, akucaci ukuthi kungakanani kwalolo tshalomali olungokoqobo nokuthi ungakanani umphumela 'wokuchazwa kabusha kwencazelo kanye nobukhulu bomsebenzi wokutshalwa kwezimali' ngenxa yezinguquko zikahulumeni ezincazelweni ze-GDP kule nyanga edlule.
Ezinye izingxenye ezimbili ezinkulu zomnotho wase-US, ngaphandle kokusetshenziswa kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kukahulumeni nalokho okubizwa ngokuthi 'insalela yokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe' (impahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle susa ukungenisa kwamanye amazwe). Lapha isithombe sezindleko zikahulumeni asisihle neze. Ukusetshenziswa kwemali okuhlanganisiwe kukahulumeni kanye nohulumeni wasekhaya kuqhubekile nokwehla ngekota yakamuva, njengasemikhakheni eyandulele. Ukuncishiswa okungeziwe okulindelekile kokushodayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ngo-2013 kanye nokunye ukwehla kwezinga lesikweletu, uma kwenzeka, kuzongeza kuphela ekudonseni kwalo mkhakha emnothweni wase-US kanye nezimangalo zokuphikisa ukusimama komnotho wase-US osendleleni.
Isimo Sensalela yango-2013
Izici ezinomthelela ekukhuleni komnotho wase-US kuze kube manje ngo-2013 ikakhulukazi ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi ekuthengisweni kwezindlu zokuhlala kanye nezimoto, kanye nezibuyekezo ezishiwo ngenhla zokutshalwa kwezimali kwe-GDP kwikota yesibili.
Kokubili ukuthengiswa kwezindlu nezimoto manje kubhekene nezivunguvungu ezinkulu ezikhuphukayo nezinga lenzalo, kukhombisa izimpawu zokuqala zokwehla, futhi ngenxa yalokho kuyangabazeka njengezici ezinkulu ezinomthelela ekuqhubekiseni ukukhula komnotho wase-US esikhathini esisele sonyaka—ikakhulukazi uma izinga lenzalo likhuphuka futhi. Uma kwenzeka i-US Federal Reserve iqala ukwehlisa umthamo wayo wemali eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-85 zamaRandi ngenyanga, njengoba iningi labahlaziyi bezimakethe libikezela ukuthi kuzokwenzeka maduze, amanani enzalo ase-US azokhuphuka kakhulu.
Lokho ngeke nje kubambezele ukusetshenziswa kwemali yabathengi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali ngokuqhubekayo, kodwa kuzokhuphula inani ledola laseMelika uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye izinhlobo zemali, bese kwehlisa ukuthunyelwa kwe-US kwamanye amazwe kanye negalelo lakamuva elivele libuthakathaka kuGDP yase-US nasezinyangeni ezizayo.
Amazinga akhuphukayo nawo azodambisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwebhizinisi, ngesikhathi lapho amabhizinisi ekhombisa intshisekelo encane ekwandiseni uhlu lwezimpahla ezikhona kusukela ekunciphiseni kwamanje.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi isiphakamiso nje se-Federal Reserve yokunciphisa umjovo wemali wamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-85 ngenyanga ngoNhlangulana wezi-2013 odlulile kwavusa ukwehla okukhulu kwezimakethe zezimali. Ibhondi yase-US yeminyaka eyi-10 yoMgcinimafa ngokwemibandela yangempela ikhuphuke ngo-1.3% endabeni yamasonto ambalwa. Leso zinga lebhentshimakhi sinomthelela omkhulu hhayi kuphela emalini ebolekiwe yezindlu kodwa ukuthengiswa kwezimoto kanye namanye amanani anomthelela omubi ekusetshenzisweni nasekutshalweni kwezimali. Uma ngabe i-Fed empeleni iqala 'ukuqopha' ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-85 ezinyangeni ezizayo, njengoba kungenzeka kakhulu, lokho kuzoholela ekuphenduleni okwengeziwe kwezimakethe zezimali, okungenzeka kube kubi kakhulu, futhi kulokhu mhlawumbe kwanele ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa, ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nomnotho. namanje.
Ukwengeza kukho konke lokhu, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kukahulumeni kuyaqhubeka nokuba namandla futhi kungase kube kubi kakhulu ngolunye umjikelezo wokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwezindleko ngasekupheleni kwalo nyaka. Amathuba anamandla okuba enye impi ngenxa yokushoda kwemali, isabelomali sika-Obama okufanele sikhokhelwe umhla lu-1 kuMfumfu, ukuxhasa uhulumeni wobumbano ngezimali, kanye nokunwetshwa kwezikweletu futhi, kuzoba neminye imiphumela engemihle ngokwengqondo emnothweni wase-US ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Ngakho-ke, umnotho wase-US, ezinyangeni ezizayo, ungase ubhekane nenkinga embaxambili ye-Fed 'tapering, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo, ukuncishiswa kwemali eshodayo, kanye nokulwa kabusha kwezikweletu nomthelela ongemuhle ngokwengqondo ofana nalowo owabonakala ngo-2011 ngesikhathi somcimbi ofanayo. .
Okokugcina, 'izigigaba zomsila' ezingaziwa emnothweni womhlaba nazo azinakuzitshwa. Ithemba elivame ukuzwakala lokuthi umnotho wase-US maduze uzodonsela umhlaba wonke endleleni yokukhula okusimeme kuwukufisa. Umnotho we-Euro usuwonke uyaqhubeka 'nokugxumela phansi', ngokukhula okuncane noma ungabikho nhlobo enyakatho 'yomgogodla' kanye nokucindezeleka okuqhubekayo endaweni yawo. I-China ibonakala iphokophele ekufikeni okunzima, njengoba izinga layo lokukhula lesikhathi eside liqhubeka nokuhamba kancane futhi namandla akhula ngenxa yebhamuza lebhamuza lezindlu nezakhiwo ezinobukhulu obukhulu. Eminye iminotho ye-BRIC (i-Brazil, i-Russia, njll.) iyaqhubeka izabalaza ngesilinganiso sokukhula esimaphakathi esingu-1% futhi 'igxuma phansi'. Futhi okwamenyezelwa njengomkhakha omusha wokukhula emnothweni womhlaba ezinyangeni ezimbalwa nje, izinga lokukhula kweJapan seliphinde lehla kakhulu kwikota yakamuva.
Ngamafuphi, i isikhathi eside Umkhuba ukhombisa ukuthi umnotho wase-US 'uqhuma phansi', cishe ukhula ungekho ngaphezu kuka-1% -1.5% ngonyaka—akukabi nakancane izinga lokujabula noma lokuthi ukukhula komnotho okusimeme sekufike ekugcineni. Ngokuphambene ne-hype eqhubekayo mayelana 'ne-snap back' eqinile ezokwenzeka engxenyeni yesibili ka-2013, luncane uphawu lokuthi lokhu kuzokwenzeka. Izinto ezibe nomthelela walelo zinga elintekenteke elicishe libe ngu-1% lokukhula kwesikhathi eside ngokwazo likhombisa izimpawu zokwehla: ukusetshenziswa kwezindlu, ukuthengiswa kwezimoto zezimoto, amaholo nemali engenayo yomndeni, kanye nezindleko zikahulumeni. Futhi ezinye izivunguvungu ezinkulu ngokwemigomo yezezimali nezezimali e-US, kanye nasemnothweni obanzi womhlaba wonke, ziyavela ngasemkhathini.
Noma kunjalo, 'umshini wokuphotha' wokuvuselela umnotho wase-US uyaqhubeka nokuthuthuka—njengoba bekunjalo eminyakeni emine edlule—umemezela ukuthi lesi sikhathi sizokwehluka futhi 'ukukhanya ekugcineni komhubhe' kungokoqobo hhayi nje intimela eyehlayo. ithrekhi.
UJack Rasmus ungumbhali wencwadi ethi, “Umnotho Ka-Obama: Ukubuyiselwa Kwabambalwa”, eshicilelwe ngabakwaPluto Press, eLondon, ngo-April 2012. Ungumsakazi wohlelo lwe-inthanethi lwamasonto onke oluvela eNew York, 'Alternative Visions', ohlelweni. I-Progressive Radio Network, prn.fm. Iwebhusayithi yakhe www.kyklosproductions.com futhi ubhala ku-jackrasmus.com. Isibambo sakhe se-twitter sithi drjackrasmus.
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