Kusukela ekupheleni kwempi yaseNajaf, izinto seziphenduke inqwaba yokuqubuka kodlame okusha nezimemezelo ezingqubuzanayo yizo zonke izinhlangothi zempi yase-Iraq. Kufihlwe kulokhu kudideka isu elisha ngokuphelele lezepolitiki laseMelika elithembisa ukudala uthuthuva emadolobheni ase-Iraq, ngenkathi kushintsha kakhulu ukulingana kwamandla. Uma i-US iphumelela, izobeka inkundla yokuhlasela okukhulu kwezempi ngemva nje kokhetho lwangoNovemba, okungase kube nesihluku esingaphezu kwanoma yini esiyibonile kuze kube manje. Uma i-US yehluleka, ingase ikhiqize uhlobo lokubuyisela emuva iphrofayili ephezulu ecekela phansi amathuba okhetho lukaBush kanye/noma okuholela kolunye ushintsho olukhulu esu lezempi lase-US lezombusazwe.
Ubani Owinile eNajaf?
Impendulo emfushane ithi u-Ali al-Sistani, owaphinde wazibeka njengomholi ovelele wase-Iraq ngokuxazulula le nkinga ngaphandle kokucekelwa phansi kwe-Imam Ali Shrine noma ukubulawa kwamasosha e-Al Mahdi ayekuyo. Kodwa u-al-Sistani unenkinga yokuhlanganisa lokhu kuvelela, ngoba i-US ayikalulethi usizo lokwakha kabusha eyaluqinisekisa; futhi u-al-Sistani akakwazi ukubuyisela ukuphila okuhlelekile ngaphandle kosizo olunjalo lwangaphandle. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba isu lika-al-Sistani lincike ekuceleni amaShia ukuthi alahle izimfuno ezisheshayo njengoba kulindeleke ukuzuza ukubuswa kwezombusazwe okhethweni lukaJanuwari, udlame oluqhubekayo kwezinye izindawo luyingozi okhethweni futhi ngenxa yalokho nokwethembeka kwakhe.
Ngabe u-Muqtada al Sadr wawina noma wehlulwa eNajaf? Ngaphambi kokuthi u-al-Sistani angenele, amaSadrist abebhekene nokukhetha okunzima. Babengase balwe baze bafe: lokhu bekungaba ukunqoba okukhulu kwezombusazwe okwakuzogqugquzela ukusekelwa ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwezwe futhi kwenze amaSadrists abe ibutho eliyinhloko phakathi kokumelana ne-Iraq, nakuba kwakusho ukudela izimpilo zabo abazinikezele kakhulu nabanolwazi. izishoshovu. Noma bebengahoxa eShrine: lokhu bekuyoqeda ukuthembeka kwabo njengabaguquli, futhi kubashiye behlushwe izikhali futhi bengahlonishwa.
Kubukeka sengathi bazoba abafelโ ukholo, kodwa u-al-Sistani wahlwitha ukunqoba kwabo ngenkathi esindisa izimpilo zabo. Lokhu kwalondoloza (futhi mhlawumbe kwaze kwaqinisa) inhlangano yabo; kodwa ubukhulu babo bezepolitiki bathululwa ngaphambili ngu-al-Sistani.
Ingabe i-US .iwine noma yahlulwa e-Najaf? I-US yalahlekelwa ngezindlela ezimbili. Iphinde yahlukanisa ama-Iraqis, ukuze i-US noma abaphathi bamakhasimende bayo bangabi nokwethembeka emgwaqeni. Iphinde yalahlekelwa yithuba lokunqoba kwezempi okungahle kunqobe uBush okhethweni lwangoNovemba futhi yesabise abashokobezi baseShia ngokwanele ukuba bathule ngenkathi i-US ithuthukisa futhi isebenzisa uhlelo olusha lwezindawo zamaShia zezwe.
Kodwa i-US iphinde yanqoba izinto ezimbili ngokungenelela kuka-al-Sistani. Okokuqala, kwakhululwa ekukhetheni okubi: noma ukuhoxa ngaphandle kokukhipha i-al Sadr (okwakungaba ukunqoba okukhulu kwe-al Sadr futhi kwakuzoholela ezindaweni ezikhululekile kulo lonke elaseNingizimu ye-Iraq); noma ukubhidliza indawo engcwele nokudala ukucasuka okubanzi kwe-Islam obekungaholela ekuvukeleni umbuso ngokushesha ezweni lonke. Ngakho-ke i-US yaphila ukuze izame elinye isu, abebengeke libe nalo ithuba lokulenza ukube u-al-Sistani akazange angenele.
Okwesibili, ukukhishwa kwangaphambilini kuka-al-Sistani kunikeze isifanekiso sesu elisha elatholwa yi-US ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho. Ukwenza kwakhe ukuthula kwanikeza inqubo ehlelekile lapho amaphoyisa ase-Iraq (aqeqeshwe futhi elawulwa yi-US) athatha ukulawula okusemthethweni kwe-Najaf endala. Igunya labo liqinisekiswa ukuba semthethweni kuka-al-Sistani, ngakho-ke abazange babhekane nenselele yamaSadrist amasosha noma abanye abavukeli (nakuba amaphoyisa ngokwawo engeke ahlale ethembekile e-US, inqubo esesiyibonile kwenye indawo kakade). E-US, lokhu kwakha umbono wentuthuko efanayo kwamanye amadolobha: umfelandawonye "nabalingani" obenza amaphoyisa ase-Iraqi abe semthethweni ngenkathi esusa izidlamlilo empilweni yomphakathi yedolobha.
Isu Elisha lase-US.
Ngakho-ke isu elisha lase-US liqondiswe emadolobheni lapho amavukelambuso kanye nobuholi babefundisi bubusa khona, ikakhulukazi i-Falluja, i-Samarra, i-Tal Afar, ne-Sadr City (yize kunabanye abambalwa abangekho ezindabeni kamuva nje). Indlela yase-US iwukuxoxisana nabefundisi, inikeze usizo oluningi lokwakha kabusha ukuze kuhoxiswe ukuvukela umbuso futhi mhlawumbe nokuletha abashokobezi e-US (Bakubiza lokhu kuxoxisana nabalingani ukuze bahlukane nezidlamlilo.)
Uma bengathola isivumelwano, khona-ke i-US imashela edolobheni futhi ibophe okungenani abanye abashokobezi, isebenzisa izimpimpi ukunquma ukuthi izokhomba bani. Uma abashokobezi benqaba ukuboshwa, i-US iyabaqothula kanye nezindawo abaphephela kuzo. Uma bencibilika phakathi kwabantu, khona-ke amaphoyisa ase-Iraqi kanye Nonogada Besizwe bathatha iziteshi phakathi kwedolobha ukuze baphoqelele umthetho kahulumeni wendawo omiswe kabusha. Amasosha aseMelika angaphandle kwedolobha agcina amandla okungenelela kunoma yimuphi umzamo wokuphonsela inselelo amaphoyisa noma iNational Guard.
Ukuphoqa isivumelwano, i-US isongela ukuhlasela kwezomnotho nezempi edolobheni lilonke. Ingxenye yohlelo ukusebenzisa amandla omoya anonya angacekela phansi amabhilidi noma amabhlogo edolobha wonke ngomzamo wokuqinisekisa izakhamuzi nabaholi ukuthi izindleko zokumelana ziphezulu kakhulu. Umcabango oyisisekelo ukuthi "abalinganisayo" ekugcineni bazokhetha ukuxoxisana kunokuba babone idolobha labo libhujiswa. Njengoba isikhulu sasolwandle esisodwa e-Falluja etshela Washington Post intatheli uRajiv Chadrasekaran, umgomo โuwukuhlukanisa idolobha, ukuthola abantu abalungile bedolobha ngakolunye uhlangothi namaphekula ngakolunye.โ
Uhlelo olusha lwenzelwe ukufeza izinhloso ezimbili. Okokuqala, i-US inethemba lokunciphisa kakhulu inani lokuhlaselwa kwama-convoys ase-US kanye nezisekelo ezingaphandle kwamadolobha. Lokhu kuhlasela kuhlelwa ngaphakathi emadolobheni, izikhali ezisetshenziswayo zigcinwa lapho, futhi abashokobezi bavikelekile ekubonweni ngezazi zabo njengamalungu emiphakathi yendawo. Ngokudiliza, ukubopha, noma ukubulala ama-guerilla, uhlelo olusha lunamandla okunciphisa kakhulu ukuhlaselwa okuqondile kwamabutho ase-US.
Okwesibili, ngokufaka amaphoyisa esikhundleni sokuvukela umbuso njengomthombo womthetho nokuhleleka phakathi kwedolobha, i-US inethemba lokuthola ukulawula ukuphila komphakathi wendawo, okuhlanganisa nokusungula ubuholi bezombangazwe obusekela amaMelika, esikhundleni sobuholi obukhona babefundisi obuzonda ukuba khona kwe-US. Lokhu kuzovumela i-US ukulawula inqubo yokhetho ngoJanuwari futhi kuqinisekise isishayamthetho esithobela inqubomgomo yaseMelika.
Kunokuphuthuma okukhulu kuleli bhizinisi ngoba isu lamanje lase-US e-Iraq ligxile okhethweni oluhlelelwe uJanuwari. U-Al-Sistani ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi ngeke alinde ngaphambi kukaJanuwari ngaphambi kokhetho (usevumile ukuthi uzolinda izinyanga eziyisithupha ngaphezu komnqamulajuqu wakhe wokuqala) futhi noma yikuphi ukubambezeleka okwengeziwe kungase kumfake embhikishweni onamandla kakhulu kunalokho asewamukele kuze kube manje. Kodwa ukhetho olungafaki izindawo ezingaphansi kombuso wamavukelambuso njengamanje luzoveza omunye futhi uhulumeni ongenakho ukugunyazwa (okuhlanganisa nokuduba okungenzeka kuka-al-Sistani ngokwakhe). Futhi i-US ngeke ivumele la madolobha ukuthi abe yingxenye yokhetho ngaphandle kokuwathatha kabusha, njengoba azobe esethumela abameleli bezinguquko ukuba bafune ukuthi isiShayamthetho sicele ukuthi i-US ihoxise, okuyisicelo esizosekelwa abantu abangaphezu kuka-90%. (Izinhlolovo zakamuva ezenziwe Umbiko Womsebenzi zibika ukusekelwa okungaphansi kuka-10% wokuba khona okuqhubekayo kwase-US.)
Ngakho-ke, i-US kumele ngokushesha (zingakapheli izinyanga ezine) iphinde imise ukulawula kwayo lezi zindawo ezikhululiwe, futhi lokhu kulawula kufanele kube nokuthula ngokwanele ukuvumela ukufana kokhetho olunobulungiswa. Yingakho amamoderethi eyingxenye yesu elisha lase-US. Ukusebenza ngamasosha aseMelika akuzuzisi - kukhiqiza ukumelana okuqinile nokunqunyelwe phakathi kwabantu. (Ukuthulisa unomphela ngisho nedolobha elilodwa ngokumelene nalolu hlobo lokumelana kudinga amashumi ezinkulungwane zamasosha ase-US azulazula kuzo zonke izindawo ezingomakhelwane - okungaphezu kwamandla ezinombolo amabutho ase-US.) Amaphoyisa ase-Iraqi kanye Nonogada Kazwelonke badume kabi ngokunikezela noma ukuhlubuka kubashokobezi, kodwa i-US inethemba lokuthi bazokwazi ukugcina ukuhleleka uma ubuholi bendawo obuhlonishwayo buthulisa abashokobezi futhi buqinisekisa ukuba khona kwabo, njengoba u-al-Sistani enzile eNajaf.
Ingabe uhlelo olusha lwase-US luyasebenza?
Kube nokukhava okwanele kwamadolobha amane ukuthola umqondo walokho okwenzekayo nokuthi kungenzeka yini ukubikezelwa kwesu elisha laseMelika.
Falluja. I-US yahlangana nobuholi babefundisi e-Falluja (ukwamukelwa kokuqala okusemthethweni kobuholi babo bomphakathi), inikela ngezigidi eziningi zamaRandi imali yokwakha kabusha ukulungisa ingqalasizinda eyadilizwa cishe ngokuhlaselwa kuka-April - ngaphansi kombandela wokuthi (1) abashokobezi baxoshwa futhi baphucwa izikhali, (2) i-US yavunyelwa ukugada phakathi kwedolobha, futhi (3) abefundisi bathembisa ukwethembeka kuhulumeni omkhulu. Azikho izingxoxo okwakungakhulunywa ngazo, ngoba abefundisi bayichitha yomithathu imibandela.
Ngokushesha ngemva kokuwa kwezingxoxo ezingezona izingxoxo, i-US yaqala ukuqhuma kwamabhomu cishe nsuku zonke ezindaweni ezihlukahlukene e-Falluja. Udaba olusesembozweni kube ukuthi baqhumisa ngamabhomu โizindlu eziphephileโ ezisetshenziswa amaphekula ahlobene no-Abu Musab al Zarqawi (nokuthi abekho abanye abantu ngesikhathi sokuhlasela), kodwa izibhedlela zibika nsuku zonke ukuthi iningi labashonile izakhamuzi. Kucacela wonke umuntu ngaphandle komphakathi waseMelika ukuthi ukuhlaselwa kwenzelwe ukukholisa abantu baseFalluja ukuthi balahle ukweseka kwabo ukuhlubuka. Ukwengeza enye ingxenye yosongo ku-equation, i-US isimemezele kaningi ukuthi izophinde ihlasele idolobha maduze; futhi phakathi nesonto lesibili likaSepthemba baze bamemezela ngemibhobho ukuthi izakhamuzi zezindawo ezithile kufanele ziphume ngenxa yokuhlasela okulindile. Lokhu kwakuwubuwula; Izikhulu zamasosha aseMelika zivumile ezintathelini zaseMelika ukuthi zilinde kuze kudlule ukhetho lwangoNovemba e-US
Singalindela ukuthi ukuqhuma kwamabhomu kuzoqhubeka kuze kube nguNovemba, kulandelwa ukuhlasela okuphelele kwedolobha, okungenzeka kube nesihluku kakhulu kunokuhlasela kwangaphambilini kwe-Falluja ne-Najaf (ngaphandle uma, kunjalo, isu lishintsha futhi okwamanje) . Okwamanje, zikhona ama-overtures aqhubekayo ngezingxoxo ezintsha, kodwa ngaphandle kokuba noma yiluphi uhlangothi luguqule isimo salo.
Sadr imizwa. Abaphathi bakwa-Allawi kanye nabafundisi baseSadr City (bonke ababehambisana no-Muqtada al Sadr) baxoxisana ngesivumelwano esingaguquki esasizovimbela amasosha ase-US ekukhuphuleni ukuqapha ngaphakathi kwemijondolo yamaShia ekhoneni elisenyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Baghdad; kuyilapho amaSadrist engeke ahlasele ezisekelweni zase-US noma ama-convoys ngaphandle kwedolobha laseSadr. (Lokhu kwaba ukuvunyelwa okukhulu kwamaSadrist, njengoba isu labo lokuxosha abantu baseMelika e-Iraq lincike ekuhlaseleni njalo ezisekelweni zase-US kanye nama-convoys ukuze kuvinjwe izinsiza zase-US.) Ngaphezu kwalokho, abaphathi be-Allawi bathembise ukuqala imiklamo ehlukahlukene yokwakha kabusha ngaphakathi. Sadr City, okuphawula okokuqala ukuthi kwenziwa noma yimuphi umzamo omkhulu ukulungisa umonakalo wezinyanga eziyi-18 zempi.
Umyalo wase-US wasivala isivumelwano. Nakuba bekuzofeza enye yezinhloso zabo (ukunciphisa ukuhlaselwa kwabashokobezi ezisekelweni zase-US nama-convoys), babona (ngendlela efanele) ukuthi kwakuzophazamisa umgomo wabo wesibili ngoba kwakuzoshiya ngaphandle kokuvinjelwa ukulawulwa kwezombusazwe kweSadr City yi-Mahdi Army kanye nomfundisi wayo. abangani. (Amasosha aseMelika achaze ukwenqatshwa kwawo ngokuthi isivumelwano sizovumela ibutho le-Al Mahdi ukuthi liphinde lizihlanganise ngemuva โkokunqotshwa kabuhlunguโ eNajaf, kodwa bonke ubufakazi bukhomba ukuthi impi yaseNajaf ayizange ibenze buthaka amaSadrist eBaghdad.)
Ngosuku olungemva kwalokhu kunqatshwa, i-US yavuselela ukugada nezimpi ngaphakathi kwe-Sadr City, izama ukudala isiphithiphithi nencithakalo eyanele ukuze ibuyisele amaphakathi etafuleni lezingxoxo. Nokho, ngokushesha bathola ukuthi la maphoyisa ayebulala abantu abaningi ngaphandle kokuhlukanisa phakathi kobuholi babefundisi nabashokobezi. (E-Najaf, ukuvinjezelwa okude kwadala ulaka lwangempela kumaSadrist, ababengezona izakhamuzi zaseNajaf; izakhamuzi eziningi zazibabona njengabaxhumanisi abaletha ukuhlasela kweMelika edolobheni. Edolobheni lase-Sadr, abashokobezi bangamalungu omndeni nomakhelwane abahlonishwayo begcina ubugebengu buphansi futhi abantu baseMelika bangaphandle izinyanga, Ngakho-ke, ukuhlasela kwaseMelika kujwayele ukuhlanganisa ukwesekwa kwe-Al Mahdi, eyayibonakala ivimbela abantu baseMelika ekulawuleni futhi ngokuvamile becindezela umphakathi ngokungena ezindlini ngendluzula, besabisa izakhamuzi futhi babophe amadoda ngokungakhethi. , abesifazane, ngisho nezingane.)
Ngemuva kwamasonto amabili ezimpi nokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu, i-US yahoxa isikhashana yabuyela ezisekelweni zayo, yashiya ukulawula kweSadr City kubashokobezi kanye nobuholi babo bomfundisi. Njengamanje kubonakala sengathi bakhethe umkhankaso wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu njengalowo oseFalluja; nakuba kuze kube manje ukuqhuma kwamabhomu kuye kwenzeka ngezikhathi ezithile kunokungaguquguquki. Iqiniso lokuthi izintatheli zaseMelika zingafinyelela eSadr City futhi zibike lesi sibhicongo kungaba yisithiyo esisodwa.
ISamarra. Ngokushesha ngemva kokuphela kwempi yaseNajaf, amasosha aseMelika avala ibhuloho eliyisihluthulelo eSamarra, ngaleyo ndlela aqala ukuvinjelwa kwezomnotho okwanqamula ngempumelelo konke ukuhweba okuvamile. Lokhu kwaholela ebunzimeni obusheshayo ezungeze idolobha futhi kwaba nomthelela obekulindelwe: iqembu labefundisi laxoxisana ngesivumelwano lapho ibhuloho lavulwa kabusha ukuze kunikezwe isiqinisekiso sokuthi amasosha ase-US angangena edolobheni ngaphandle kokuhlaselwa. Lena kwaba impumelelo yokuqala yalelisu elisha, futhi ithimba lamasosha ase-US langena edolobheni ngaphandle kokuphazanyiswa ngo-September 2. Ehholo ledolobha bama ukuze bamemezele futhi bethule uhulumeni omusha wedolobha oxhaswe yi-US.
Ngosuku olulandelayo, abashokobezi basilahla lesi sivumelwano futhi ingxenye yobuholi babefundisi bendawo obambisene nabashokobezi bamemezela ukubunjwa kukahulumeni omusha wamavukelambuso olandelwa, futhi ohlangene ngokusemthethweni, nohulumeni waseFalluja. (Lokhu kuwusongo olusha e-US, ngoba ukuxhumana phakathi kwezindawo ezikhululiwe bekungekho futhi kungaba ithuluzi elikhulu ngokumelene nomsebenzi.)
Njengoba kunohulumeni ababili abancintisanayo, isimo asizinzile. Amasosha aseMelika abeqaphe ihholo ledolobha (ngokusobala awawethembi amaphoyisa ase-Iraqi ukuthi azokwenza lo msebenzi nabashokobezi abasasebenza), futhi baxoshwe okungenani kanye,. Nokho, kuze kube manje, akukaze kube nemibiko yempi enkulu eqalwe yizinhlangothi zombili. Ukuxazululwa kwalokhu kungaboni ngasolinye kunganquma kahle amaqhinga asetshenziswa yizinhlangothi zombili kwamanye amadolobha.
I-Tal Afar. I-US ikhethe leli dolobha njengendawo yokubhekana nabashokobezi, naphezu kokungajwayelekile kwalo. Izakhamizi ikakhulukazi zingamaTurkmen futhi iningi lawo ngamaShia, futhi isemngceleni neSyria, okuyenza ibe isizinda sohwebo nokushushumbiswa kwezimpahla namavukelambuso. Ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwe-US ekuqaleni kukaSepthemba, bekuyindawo "engahambeki" yamasosha aseMelika isikhathi esingangenyanga kuphela, ngakho-ke imvelo nokusekelwa kokuvukela kunzima ukukubona. Okubaluleke kakhulu, nakuba kusobala ukuthi amaShia Turkmen amaningi asekela abashokobezi, ibutho lase-US liyaphikelela (futhi abanye ababukele abazimele bayavuma) ukuthi (abaningi, uma kungebona bonke) amavukela-mbuso angamaSunni Arabs. Uma lokhu kuyiqiniso, kungakha umfelandawonye ongakaze ubonwe phakathi kwezinhlanga ngaphakathi kwe-Iraq, lowo obikezela ukuvukela umbuso okunobuhlakani nobunye ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Kube nezingxoxo ezimfushane nobuholi baseTurkmen edolobheni, kodwa akukho zivumelwano ezisemthethweni ezanikezwa. I-US yabe isiqala umkhankaso omkhulu wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu ngendlela enonya kakhulu kunanoma iyiphi enye indawo (ngaphandle kweNajaf lapho kuvinjezelwa khona). Nakuba ngisho nezikhulu zezempilo zomphakathi nezibhedlela zikugxekile lokhu kuqhuma kwamabhomu futhi zabika amakhulu abantu abalimala, amasosha aseMelika athi bonke abashonile nabalimele babengamavukela-mbuso, kuhlanganise nenani elikhulu labesifazane nezingane. (Enye intatheli yacaphuna impimpi etshela amasosha aseMelika ukuthi wonke umuntu emphakathini othile ungumvukeli, ngakho lokhu kungase kube isembozo sobuchwepheshe sezimangalo zabo ezingenangqondo.) Ukuqhuma kwamabhomu ngengubo yokulala, kuhlangene nesixwayiso saseMelika sokuba kuphume abantu, kwaholela kubantu abangaphezu kuka-50,000 ngokuyinhloko. Ababaleki baseTurkmen ababalekela idolobha labangu-350,000 (amanye ama-akhawunti angaqinisekisiwe abike ababaleki abamangalisayo abangama-250,000).
Ngemuva kokuqhuma kwamabhomu, i-US yathumela amasosha angaba ngu-2,000 edolobheni, yabhekana nokuphikiswa okunamandla futhi yalwa impi izinsuku ezinhlanu ngaphambi kokuba abashokobezi bancibilike. Amasosha ase-US kanye nabalingani bawo base-Iraq bahamba ngaphandle kwezihibe ezungeze idolobha izinsuku ezimbalwa, ngenkathi imibhikisho yangaphandle iphikisana nokuhlasela.
Umbhikisho obalulekile uvele kuhulumeni waseTurkey, owagxeka i-US, ethi cishe bonke abashonile kwakungabantu baseTurkmen abangenacala; nokuthi akukho kuhlasela kwamasosha aseMelika okwake kwaqalwa amaTurkmen okuyiwona ayeyizisulu zodlame oluningi. UMongameli Gul waseTurkey wesabise ngokuthi uzohoxa โkuMfelandawonye Wokuvumaโ uma ibutho elihlaselayo lingasuki eTal Afar futhi libuyisele ababaleki emakhaya abo.
Mhlawumbe lo mbhikisho ube nomthelela othile, ngoba amasosha ase-US ahoxile futhi kwenziwa izimemezelo zokumema ababaleki ukuthi babuye. Kodwa lokhu kungase futhi kumelele isu elihleliwe, njengoba leli dolobha elisanda kuthula lafakwa ngaphansi kokulawula kwamaphoyisa ase-Iraq kanye Nonogada Kazwelonke.
Kube khona imibiko ethembekile ukuthi lo mkhankaso umele uhlobo olusha lokuhlanzwa kohlanga, lapho amasosha ase-US asusa khona i-Tal Afar ukuze kube lula ukuhlaliswa kabusha kanye nokubuswa kwedolobha ngamaKurds. Le mibiko ithi amaphoyisa ase-US ashiye ephethe "ayi-pesh merga," amasosha angamaKurd azinikele ekubuseni kwamaKurd endaweni esenyakatho-ntshonalanga yezwe. I-Tal Afar, njengedolobha elisemngceleni elihlezi emizileni emikhulu yezentengiselwano, ingaba usizo olukhulu uma ingaba yingxenye yesifunda esizimele samaKurd ngaphakathi kwezwe noma i-republic ezimele yamaKurd.
Kungaphambi kwesikhathi ukuphetha ngokuthi umkhankaso we-Tal Afar umele ukusetshenziswa okuphumelele kakhulu kwesu elisha laseMelika, ngaphandle kokulinda ukusabela kokugcina kwedlanzana lamaTurkmen edolobheni. Impela ulwazi lwabo ngokuhlaselwa kwaqeda noma yiluphi uzwelo ababengase babe nalo ngabantu baseMelika, futhi ngaleyondlela kwabeka isisekelo sokuvukela okuzimisele nakakhulu ngokushesha nje lapho bethola ukulingana; kodwa futhi kungenzeka ukuthi bashaywe ekuhambiseni, umphumela obonakala uwumgomo omkhulu waseMelika.
Siyini I-Prognosis?
Umkhankaso ose-Tal Afar uzobonakala uyingane yephosta yesu elisha, kodwa i-Tal Afar ayiwona amaShia noma amaSunni; ngisho noma abantu baseTurkmen bevumela umbuso omusha, ukugunyazwa kwabo ngeke kubonise ukuthi umphumela ofanayo ungalindelwa kwezinye izindawo.
Okuthembisa kakhulu isu laseMelika iSamara, idolobha elijwayelekile lamaSunni elinokuvukela umbuso okuqinile. Ukuzimisela kokuqala kwabanye abefundisi ukuxoxisana lapho becindezelwa unswinyo lwezomnotho kuphakamisa ukuthi i-US ingase ibone futhi isebenzisane nobuholi bendawo obuthobelayo kwamanye amadolobha alawulwa amavukela-mbuso. Umphumela, vele, awunqunyiwe, futhi uma ukuphikisa kuphumelela ukuhlukanisa noma ukuqeda ubuholi obusha obuqokiwe kanye/noma ukwenza ukuqhubeka nokuba khona kwe-US kungamukeleki, khona-ke leli su lase-US lizongena ohlwini olude lwemizamo ehlulekile yokudambisa ukumelana. Okwamanje, nokho, lokhu kumelela ithuba elingcono kakhulu lokuthi uMsebenzi uphinde uveze igunya lawo ndawana thize.
I-Falluja ne-Sadr City zombili zijwayelekile kakhulu kune-Samarra futhi azithembisi kangako abantu baseMelika. Umzamo wokuqala wokuhlonza nokusebenzisana nabanye abaholi bendawo wehlulekile, okuholele abantu baseMelika emaqhingeni obushokobezi ngokumelene nenani labantu bendawo. Lokhu akuzange kusebenze esikhathini esidlule kunoma iyiphi indawo, futhi alukho uphawu lwalokhu kusebenza kwakamuva. Kubonakala sengathi i-US izolinda kuze kube ngemva kokhetho lwaseMelika ukuze iqalise isigaba sesibili esinolaka nesicekela phansi kakhulu, okuhloswe ngaso ukwesabisa abantu ukuthi bathumele.
Mhlawumbe impumelelo enkulu yesu elisha kuze kube manje ingeyinhle. Isiphithiphithi kanye nembubhiso edalwe ukuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu nokuhlasela kwe-Tal Afar kwadala ukusabela okunamandla okuvela eTurkey, ukucasuka okukhulu e-Iraq naseMpumalanga Ephakathi; futhi akukho mbhikisho nhlobo eYurophu nase-United States. Ukuhlasela okungatheni, kodwa okunonya, eSadr City naseFalluja akubangeli neze izikhalazo noma izimemezelo zobumbano. Lokhu kuhluke kakhulu empini ka-April e-Falluja, eyadala ukugxekwa emhlabeni wonke, kanye nokuvinjezelwa kweNajaf, okwakusongela ukuhlanganisa umphakathi wamaShia wamazwe ngamazwe.
Lokho okungenzeka ukuthi i-US ikuzuzile, ngakho-ke, ukunganaki komhlaba ekukhuliseni udlame olubhekiswe kubantu base-Iraq. Lokhu, ngaphezu kokuphumelela noma ukwehluleka kwale mikhankaso ngayinye, kungase kubeke isisekelo sezenzo ezimbi umbutho wezempi wase-US obonakala uzilungiselela isikhathi nje ngemva kokhetho lwaseMelika ngoNovemba. Umhlaba ulazi ngokugcwele ikhono le-US Air Force lokulinganisa ngokuphelele ngisho nedolobha elikhulu kakhulu, lisebenzisa amabhomu angamaphawundi ayi-2,000 alethwe ngamanani amakhulu ngezindiza ezithwala abantu. Ukwenyuka okulinganiselwe kokucekela phansi kokuhlasela kwezindiza zase-US ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezedlule kubonakala kukudambisile ukucasuka kwasekhaya nekwamanye amazwe, isimo esivumela ukwanda okwengeziwe kanye nobukhulu abalimala abaningi.
Izenzo zabantu base-Iraqi - kokubili abashokobezi kanye nezakhamuzi - zingase zilibambezele leli qhinga ngaphambi kokuba lifinyelele eqophelweni lokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu kanye nokucekelwa phansi kwempahla. Kepha noma ukumelana okunonya kakhulu kwe-Iraq kungenzeka kunganeli ukuvimba ukuhlasela okuzayo kukaNovemba. Ama-Iraqi adinga futhi afanelwe ukwesekwa ngumphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe; okungcono kakhulu (futhi okungacekeleki phansi) ukuvimbela lokhu kuhlasela okuzayo kungaba usongo lokubhikisha okungalawuleki emhlabeni wonke uma i-US izama ukubeka ezingeni le-Falluja noma i-Sadr City.
UMichael Schwartz, uProfesa weSociology eNyuvesi Yombuso yaseNew York eStony Brook ubhale kabanzi ngemibhikisho edumile kanye nokuvukela umbuso, kanye namabhizinisi aseMelika kanye namandla kahulumeni. Umsebenzi wakhe uyaqhubeka Iraq uvele ku-Z Net naku-TomDispatch, naku-Z Magazine. Izincwadi zakhe zihlanganisa I-Radical Politics kanye Nesakhiwo Senhlalo, Isakhiwo Samandla Sebhizinisi LaseMelika (noBeth Mintz), kanye Inqubomgomo Yomphakathi kanye ne-Conservative Agenda (ihlelwe, noClarence Lo). Angafinyelelwa ku [i-imeyili ivikelwe].
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