UMilan Rai ungumhleli we Ukuthula Izindaba, futhi uyingxenye yeqembu elimelene nempi iJustice Not Vengeance. Ubuye abe ngumbhali we Ipolitiki kaChomsky futhi 7/7: Amabhomu aseLondon, amaSulumane kanye neMpi yase-Iraq phakathi kweminye imisebenzi. Ukhulume no-Alex Doherty we-NLP mayelana nokuhoxa kwe-US e-Iraq.
Enkulumeni yakhe yangoDisemba ngesikhathi sokuhoxiswa kwamasosha ase-US asele e-Iraq u-Barack Obama wathi "i-Iraq akusiyo indawo ephelele. Inezinselelo eziningi ezizayo. Kodwa sishiya i-Iraq ezimele, ezinzile futhi ezithembayo. uhulumeni omele okhethwe abantu bawo. Sakha ubambiswano olusha phakathi kwezizwe zethu futhi asiphethi impi yokugcina kodwa ngemashi yokugcina ebheke ekhaya. Lena impumelelo emangalisayo,"
Ithini impendulo yakho kulezi zimangalo?
U-Barack Obama uhlonza izici ezine ezibalulekile angahlulela ngazo umthelela wokuhlasela okuholwa yi-US ngo-2003 kanye nomsebenzi owalandela.
Amapharamitha amabili okuqala ayizinqumo ezinelukuluku, njengoba akungabazeki ukuthi i-Iraq ngaphambi kokuhlasela yayiyikho kokubili 'izimele' futhi 'izinzile' (noma ngabe lelo hlobo lokuzinza lalingathandeki). Eqinisweni, kukhona ukuqashelwa okujwayelekile kokuthi i-Iraq manje ayinamandla futhi ayizinzile kunalokho eyayiyikho ngaphambi komhla ziyi-19 kuNdasa wezi-2003.
Ubukhosi benziwe buthaka ngenxa yokugxambukela okukhulu kwezombusazwe, ezempi nakwezomnotho kohulumeni baseNtshonalanga ngesikhathi sokuphatha, kanye nokuqhubeka nokuba buthaka kwesikhundla se-Iraq maqondana nomakhelwane bayo.
Uzinzo lwenziwe buthaka ngokuhlehliswa kokulawula okuqinile okwabekwa umbuso kaSaddam Hussein, okuholele ekuwohlokeni okukhulu kokuhleleka komphakathi, phakathi kwezinye izinto. Njengoba ngihambe emigwaqweni yase-Baghdad ngo-2am, ngokuvikeleka okuphelele, phakathi nokuvakasha ngaphambi kuka-2003, ngiyazi kahle ukulahlekelwa okumangalisayo kokuvikeleka komuntu siqu okuye kwabhekana nama-Iraqi. I-International Committee ye-Red Cross yabika ngo-Agasti 2009 ukuthi cishe abantu abangu-500 (iningi labo izakhamuzi) babesabulawa nyanga zonke, futhi abangu-2,000 balimala nyanga zonke ekuqhumeni okukhulu nokuhlasela okungakhethi. Uwile ku-Ajenda? Kudingeka Usizo Olwengeziwe Nongcono Ukuze I-Iraq Ibuyiselwe, umbiko nge-Iraq owashicilelwa ngoJulayi 2010 yizinhlangano ezizimele ezinkulu ezisebenza e-Iraq, wabala 'ukungavikeleki' kuqala phakathi kwezinselelo ezinkulu ezibhekene nama-Iraqi namuhla. Muva nje kuqubuke ukuhlasela kwamahlelo. Kwabulawa abahambi abangamaShia abangama-44 ngaseNasiriyah kwathi abantu abangu-23 bashona ezigamekweni ezine zokuhlasela kwamabhomu ezindaweni ezimbili zamaShia eBaghdad, konke okwenzeka ngosuku olulodwa lokuqhuma kwamabhomu mhlaka-5 Januwari 2012. Lokhu kulandela ukuhlasela kwangomhla zinga-22 kuZibandlela wezi-2011 ezindaweni zamaShia eBaghdad kwashona abantu abangu-72. Lokhu kumane kuyizihlaselo ezimbi kakhulu ezihlaselweni zakamuva (idelakufa elilodwa labulala abantu abayisikhombisa ngomhlaka-26 Disemba, eMnyangweni Wezangaphakathi e-Baghdad).
Ukuphendukela 'ekuzethembeni', i-Iraq ngaphambi kuka-2003 yayingazithembi ngokwezomnotho. Lokhu kwaba ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokulimala komnotho okungamaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-232 okwenzeka ezweni ngo-1991 Gulf War (ukulinganisa kwe-Arab Monetary Fund), kanye nokuklinywa komnotho wase-Iraq ngezijeziso kusukela ngo-1990 kuya ku-2003. Izwe kusukela ngo-2003 aliveli ekuhlaselweni nasekuhlaselweni okuholwa yi-US, kodwa kusukela ekususweni kwe-virgo ebekwe ikakhulukazi yi-US neBrithani, okuholele ekukhuphukeni kancane komnotho wase-Iraq.
Ipharamitha yokugcina ka-Obama yenqubekela phambili mhlawumbe iyona enesibindi kakhulu. Uphawula ukuthi i-Iraq manje isijabulela 'uhulumeni okhethwe abantu bakhe'. Yiqiniso, kodwa uMongameli wase-US uyehluleka ukuveza ukuthi lokhu kuqhubekela phambili kwentando yeningi kwafezwa lapho ebhekene nokuphikiswa okungapheli - nguHulumeni wase-US.
Uma sibuyela esikhathini sangaphambi kokuhlasela, kuyamangaza ukuthi abekho abaholi bempi base-US noma baseBrithani abathembisa ukuthi i-Iraq izojabulela uhulumeni okhethwe ngentando yeningi ngemva kwempi.
Inkulumo eWashington yayimayelana nokuthola umholi omusha onegunya. 'E-CIA, eMnyangweni Wezifundazwe naphakathi kwamasosha agqoke umfaniswano, ochwepheshe bazama ukuthola iNdoda Egibele Ihhashi Elimhlophe, isikhulu esihlonishwayo esingagibela, silawule futhi sihlanganise izizwe ezihlukene zase-Iraq namaqembu ezenkolo', kubika iNewsweek ngo-25 Mashi 2002. Phakathi kokuvuza okuningi okufanayo ezinhlangothini zombili ze-Atlantic, i-Times yabika ngomhla ka-12 February 2003: 'IMelika inethemba lokuthi ukuhlasela kwayo okukhulu kuzodala “ukuvukela esigodlweni”.' Impi yaqalwa ngesinqumo sikaMongameli wase-US uGeorge Bush mhla ziyi-17 kuNdasa wezi-2003. UBush akazange acele ukuthi kube nokhetho olukhululekile e-Iraq; wamane wathi: 'USaddam Hussein namadodana akhe kumele bahambe e-Iraq engakapheli amahora angu-48.' Isenzo sokuqala sempi kwaba isiteleka semicibisholo endlini okukholakala ukuthi iqukethe umashiqela, ekuqondeni ukuthi uma ebulawa, impi yayingeke idingeke (nakuba amasosha aholwa yi-US asazodinga ukungena ukuze aqinisekise ukukhishwa kwezikhali kwe-WMD) .
Kwacaca ngokusobala ngaphambi kwempi ukuthi i-US ne-UK bebengafuni 'ushintsho lombuso', kodwa 'ushintsho lobuholi' e-Iraq. Umbuso, uhlelo lwezempi-lepolitiki-intelligence-bureaucratic-judicial olwakhiwe nguSaddam Hussein lwaluzosala, kodwa izibalo ezimbalwa phezulu kwesakhiwo zazizoshintshwa. Lokhu kwafanekiswa ngumbuzo kaNdunankulu waseBrithani esithangamini sangoNovemba 2002. Ehlangana nezifundiswa zase-Iraq eziphakeme zaseBrithani, into yokuqala eyashiwo nguTony Blair kwaba ukuthi: 'Senzenjani ngemva kokuketula umbuso?' I-Sunday Times (11 January 2004) yabika: 'Babekhungathekile.'
Kwakucacile ngaphambi kwempi ukuthi i-US ne-UK babefuna ukuketula umbuso, hhayi ukuguqulwa kombuso. Lapho sebeyithathile i-Iraq, babonisa izinhloso zabo. Uhulumeni wokuqala owabekwa e-Iraq kwakuwububusi base-US. Inqubomgomo ye-Coalition Provisional Authority 'yayingu-de-Ba'athification' ngokusemthethweni (ukususwa kwamalungu e-Saddam's Ba'ath Party empilweni yomphakathi) kodwa empeleni i-CPA yabuyisela iziphathimandla eziningi zenkathi ye-Saddam. Ezinkonzweni kukhishwe izikhulu eziphezulu, kwakhushulwa amasekela azo okuholele ekutheni kube nemibhikisho esabalele. Isibonelo, amakhulu odokotela abafakwe ilebhu babhikisha emigwaqweni yase-Baghdad ekuqaleni kukaMeyi 2003 ngemuva kokuthi i-CPA iqoke njengoNgqongqoshe Wezempilo uDkt Ali Shenan al-Janabi, owake waba yisikhulu sesithathu eMnyangweni Wezempilo wase-Saddam. Mhla zingama-21 kuMandulo wezi-2003, ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngemuva kwe-De-Ba'athification Order yenhloko edumile ye-CPA u-Paul Bremer, i-Sunday Times yabika ukuthi: 'Amasosha aseMelika aqale umkhankaso womshoshaphansi wokuqasha ababengamaphoyisa eMukhabarat, amaphoyisa omshoshaphansi ka-Saddam Hussein. yibo ababenecala lokufa nokuhlukunyezwa kwamashumi ezinkulungwane zabantu base-Iraq abangenacala.' I-athikhili ka-Mark Franchetti yayihlanganisa nengxoxo noColonel Mohammed Abdullah, umakadebona we-Mukhabarat oneminyaka eyishumi, owabuthwa ngoMeyi, ngenyanga efanayo no-Paul Bremer esusa i-Iraq ngokusemthethweni. Isikhulu saseNtshonalanga saphawula kuyi-Washington Post ngomhlaka-24 Agasti 2003: 'Kukhona ukuziphendukela kwemvelo okusobala ekucabangeni kwaseMelika. Kuqala amaphoyisa abunjwe kabusha, bese kuba amasosha. Kunengqondo ukuthi kuzothathwa izikhulu zezobunhloli kuhulumeni.'
Eminyakeni embalwa yokuqala yokusebenza, ohulumeni base-Iraq bavele bakhethwa yi-US. 'Undunankulu wesikhashana' abamkhetha kwakungu-Iyad Allawi, omunye wabaqaphi be-Ba'ath Party ka-Saddam kanye nabasebenzi be-Mukhabarat ngeminyaka yawo-1960 nasekuqaleni kwawo-1970, futhi kamuva waba yimpahla ye-CIA. U-Allawi, owayengase abe Indoda engenele ukhetho lweHhashi Elimhlophe ngo-2003, usaqhubeka nokubamba iqhaza elikhulu kwezombusazwe zase-Iraq, ngokwesekwa yi-US, nakuba esolwa ngokubulala abasolwa abayisithupha ababesolwa ngokuba ngamavukela-mbuso esiteshini samaphoyisa eBaghdad ngo-2004 (bheka iSunday Morning Herald , 17 July 2004), kanye nerekhodi lakhe elaziwayo lokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu ngokumelene nomphakathi ngaphakathi kwe-Iraq phakathi nenkathi ye-1994-1996 ngeqembu eliphikisayo alihola, i-Iraqi National Accord.
Ibuyela ekuguqukeni 'kukahulumeni omele' e-Iraq ngemuva kokuhlasela kuka-2003, i-US iphinde yazinika ilungelo lokukhetha ukuthi yimaphi ama-Iraqi okufanele akhe umhlangano owakha umthethosisekelo wangemva kweSaddam. Lokhu kuphikiswana, phakathi kwabanye, umfundisi ophakeme wama-Shia Muslim e-Iraq, u-Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, ocele ukuba kube nokhetho lukazwelonke ukuze kuqokwe ngokuqondile amalungu omhlangano wokhetho.
Lapho abahlali ekugcineni bephoqeleka ukuthi bavume 'ukhetho' ngoNovemba 2003, basungula uhlelo oluyinkimbinkimbi lokhetho olungaqondile lapho amaqembu ahlolwe yi-US abantu bendawo akhetha izithunywa zomhlangano womthetho wesikhashana, owawuzokhetha emalungwini awo um-Iraqi wesikhashana. uhulumeni. U-Anton La Guardia, Intatheli Yezindaba Zokusebenzelana ne-Daily Telegraph, waphawula: 'Inqubo “yekhokhasi” yokukhetha isishayamthetho sesikhashana izobe ikude nentando yeningi.' (26 Novemba 2003)
Kwakuwumkhankaso omkhulu wokubhikisha ongenalo udlame, oholwa yiziphathimandla zenkolo zamaShia, owaphoqa abahlali ukuthi bavume ukhetho lukazwelonke oluqondile. NgoJanuwari 2004, amaShia angu-100,000 abhikisha eBaghdad kwathi abangu-30,000 bahlangana eBasra, idolobha lesibili lase-Iraq. Bamemeza: 'Yebo, yebo okhethweni; Cha, cha emsebenzini.' Ukhetho lwagcina lufike zingama-30 kuMasingana wezi-2005 (lwenhlangano ebambe iqhaza) kwase kuba mhla ziyi-15 kuZibandlela wezi-2005 (olwephalamende lokuqala elikhethiwe). Imikhawulo yalo 'hulumeni omele' yayibekwe, nokho, uMthetho Wokuphatha Wesikhashana, owabekwa yi-US ngoMashi 2004, i-US eyayifuna ukuthi i-US ingahoxiswa uhulumeni omusha okhethiwe, ngokuqokwa (ngempumelelo yi-US. ) inqwaba yezikhulu ezibalulekile ngoJuni 2004 ezineminyaka emihlanu (lezi zihlanganisa umeluleki wezokuphepha kuzwelonke kanye nesikhulu sezobunhloli kazwelonke), kanye nezinye izibopho eziningi eziyisibopho (okuhlanganisa nohlelo lwe-IMF lokukhulula izikweletu olusayinwe 'undunankulu wesikhashana wase-US. ' Iyad Allawi ngoNovemba 2004).
Ngempela 'uhulumeni omele' e-Iraq ubonwe abenzi benqubomgomo base-US njengosongo hhayi umgomo. Kwakunjalo ngo-1991 kanye nango-2003, njengoba ngabhala ku-War Plan Iraq (Verso, 2002) kanye neRegime Unchanged (Pluto, 2003). I-US izame konke ukushintsha ubuholi obungafiseleki, kuyilapho igcina okuningi ngangokunokwenzeka kombuso wobushiqela 'ozinzile' ngangokunokwenzeka. Ukumelana nama-Iraqis ajwayelekile okuphoqe i-US (ne-UK) ukuthi yamukele izinga lentando yeningi esilibona namuhla ezweni.
Ukuze u-Barack Obama manje acule intando yeningi e-Iraq njengesizathu sempi, njengoba ngike ngaphawula ngaphambili, isinyathelo esinobuhlakani ngempela.
Ngezindlela eziningi, i-Iraq inqobe i-United States. Umuntu angase athathe ukwehluleka kwe-US ukuphoqa uhulumeni wase-Iraqi ukuthi uphasise uMthetho Kawoyela olimaza kakhulu (ukuguguleka okukhulu kobukhosi) njengophawu lwemikhawulo yamandla ase-US e-Iraq.
Lawa amaqiniso angeke avunyelwe engxoxweni enesizotha emibuthanweni ehloniphekile.
Kwaphawuleka ukuthi ngenkathi u-Obama echaza ukulahlekelwa kwe-US empini yase-Iraq akazange abhekisele kwabalimala base-Iraq - lokhu kusitshelani ngesiko lezepolitiki lase-US?
Phakathi nezimpi zase-Indochina ngawo-1960, 'isibalo somzimba' sesitha esifile samenyezelwa obala njengenkomba yokunqoba yenqubekelaphambili. Ukufa kwezakhamuzi (ezigidini zazo) kwadlula kungaziwa. Ikakhulukazi ngenxa yemibhikisho emikhulu eVietnam, isiko lase-US selishintshile futhi iPentagon ayisaqhoshi ngokuthi bangaki abantu ebabulele.
Inkulumo ethi 'isibalo somzimba' manje isisetshenziswa abagxeki bempi efana ne-Iraq Body Count, okubala kwayo ngokucophelela ngokufa kwezakhamuzi ezinodlame okubikwe ukuthi kube yingxenye eyamukelwayo yenkulumompikiswano evamile ngempi.
Ngeshwa, eminyakeni embalwa edlule, kube nokungqubuzana okukhulu phakathi kwabasekeli be-Iraq Body Count (IBC) nabasekeli besilinganiso esisekelwe kuhlolo sokufa kwabantu base-Iraq esashicilelwa kujenali yezokwelapha ehamba phambili emhlabeni, i-Lancet. Njengoba ngibonile ngo-2005, lezi zilinganiso ezimbili zazikala izigaba ezihlukene zokufa ngezikhathi ezihlukene. I-IBC irekhoda ukufa okuhlobene nempi kwezakhamuzi (cishe wonke umphumela wodlame) okubikwe yimithombo emibili ehloniphekile yolimi lwesiNgisi. Ucwaningo lwe-Lancet lulinganisele ukufa okunodlame futhi 'okungenalo udlame' okubangelwa impi, yabashokobezi namasosha kanye nezakhamuzi. Izimbangela ezingaqondile zazihlanganisa ukwanda kwezingozi, ubugebengu kanye nezifo ngenxa yempi nomsebenzi.
Lapho lo mehluko ucatshangelwa, kwakungekho ukuphikisana phakathi kwamaqoqo amabili ezilinganiso. I-Iraq Body Count ihlinzeka ngenani elibalulekile eliphelele lokufa okubangelwa ukuhlasela kanye nomsebenzi. Izilinganiso ze-Lancet zinikeza inkomba eqinile yezinga lakho konke ukufa okubangelwa ukuhlasela kanye nomsebenzi. (Igama elithi 'robust' lasetshenziswa umeluleki omkhulu wesayensi woMnyango Wezokuvikela, uSir Roy Anderson, kumemo yangomhla ziyi-13 kuMfumfu wezi-2006. U-Anderson uphinde wachaza indlela yocwaningo lwe-Lancet 'njengeseduze “nomkhuba ongcono kakhulu” kule ndawo'.)
Uma sibuyela embuzweni wesiko lezepolitiki laseMelika, akumangazi ukuthi uMongameli wase-US uyanqikaza ukuvuma ukuthi i-US ibangele ngamabomu ukufa kwabantu abaningi phakathi kwezakhamizi zase-Iraq ngempi nangokuhlala. Kungamangaza nakakhulu uma engase avume ukuthi inqubomgomo yamabomu yase-US yaholela ekufeni kwabantu ngezinga elifanayo ngokusebenzisa unswinyo oluphelele lwezomnotho (1990 kuya ku-2003).
Ngenkathi amasosha ezempi ehoxisiwe abeluleki base-US basalokhu benza inxusa elikhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni e-Baghdad - ingabe i-Iraq ilahle ngempela ukulawula kwe-US noma ingabe i-US izokwazi ukulawula i-Iraq ngezindlela ezingaqondile?
Ngiqinisekile ukuthi i-US ihlose ukugcina izinga elibalulekile lokulawula i-Iraq - ngezinhloli zayo, ngokusebenzisa amakhasimende ayo (njenge-Allawi), ngezikhali zayo zomnotho (i-IMF, usizo nokunye), kanye nobukhona bayo obuseduze obusongelayo. Ukuba khona kwamasosha aseMelika eKuwait kukhuliswe ngaphezu kwe-3,500 kanti iPentagon ibheke ukwandisa ubudlelwano bezempi nezinye izifundazwe zaseGulf. I-US futhi ineqembu le-USS Bataan Amphibious Ready elinamandla angu-3,200 elisuka eSomalia, kanye nenqwaba yamasosha asolwandle e-Gulf 'asekela' umkhankaso e-Afghanistan, kodwa alungele ukungenelela e-Iraq uma eyalwa ukuba yenze njalo.
Udaba olubalulekile ngekusasa le-Iraq ubudlelwano phakathi kukahulumeni obuswa amaShia kanye namasosha amaSunni abuthwe yi-US. (AmaSulumane amaShia, acindezelwe ngesihluku ngaphansi kukaSaddam Hussein, akha abantu abangaphezu kuka-60% wabantu, ngakho-ke noma yimuphi uhulumeni wase-Iraq uzoba 'ubuswa amaShia'.) Ukuvukela umbuso e-Iraq okwalwa ne-US ikakhulukazi kwakuyiqembu lamaSunni, okubangelwa unya lwase-US ezinyangeni zokuqala zomsebenzi. Izwe laseMelika lasusa udweshu ngo-2006 lapho libuthela amavukelambuso amaningi, aziwa ngokuthi 'Ukuvuka kwamaSunni', emfelandawonye omelene ne-al-Qa'eda. I-New York Times yabika ngo-13 December 2011:
'Amanye amalungu e-Awakening ayengamavukela-mbuso kanye namalungu e-Baath Party ka-Saddam Hussein abalwa ophikweni lobuzwe lwamaSunni ekuqaleni kwempi, indaba ekhathaza kakhulu uhulumeni obuswa amaShiite kaNdunankulu uNuri Kamal al-Maliki. Ngaphandle kwesivimbeli esihlinzekwe ngabaseMelika, ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-Awakening kanye nohulumeni omkhulu, obuhlala buthinta inhliziyo, bukhula buba nzima, futhi uhulumeni manje ufuna i-Awakening ihlakazwe ngo-Dec. 31, umnqamulajuqu wokuphuma kwebutho lase-US.'
Lokhu kubonakala kungenakwenzeka.
I-US yayinikeze isibopho semikhandlu ye-Awakening kuhulumeni wase-Iraq, obemanqikanqika ukuqhubeka nokubakhokhela, futhi eminyakeni embalwa edlule obophe idlanzana labashokobezi be-Awakening ngamacala abawenza ngesikhathi sokuvukela umbuso.
Ukwehlukana kweShia-Sunni sekufinyelele kwikhabhinethi. Ngomhla ziyi-19 kuZibandlela wezi-2011, uhulumeni (wakwaShia) Nouri al-Maliki wakhipha incwadi egunyaza ukuboshwa kukaSekela Mongameli (wamaSunni) uTariq al-Hashimi, ngamacala obushokobezi. UHashimi wabalekela eKurdish enyakatho yezwe, ekwazi ukuzimela. Ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari 2012, uMaliki waveza ukuthi usemise bonke ongqongqoshe abayisishiyagalombili kumfelandawonye we-al-Iraqiya osekelwa amaSunni Muslim. I-Al-Iraqiya iholwa akekho omunye ngaphandle kuka-Iyad Allawi. U-Allawi uyiSulumane lamaShia, kodwa amaqembu akhe ezombusazwe abelokhu egcwele amaSunni. I-Iraqiya bloc, njengoba ngibhala, iduba iphalamende lase-Iraqi, futhi icabanga ukuphuma kumfelandawonye obusayo.
I-Awakening Councils icabange ukujoyina iqembu lika-Allawi okhethweni lwasephalamende lukaJanuwari 2010, kodwa izingxoxo zabhuntsha.
I-US manje izama ukuthonya imicimbi ngokuhwebelana phakathi kwamabutho ezepolitiki ahlukahlukene, konke okuzoba kubi kakhulu uma izingxabano zamanje zingena ezimpini zombango. Ukuthi lokhu kuzophumelela, akekho ongasho.
Iningi lenkulumompikiswano yamanje yemithombo yezindaba mayelana nezifiso ze-Iran zenuzi zisikhumbuza ngokumangazayo ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq. Ingabe ukholelwa ukuthi ukuhlaselwa kohlobo oluthile e-Iran kungenzeka? Uma kunjalo ukholwa ukuthi imiphumela yokuhlasela okunjalo ingaba yini?
Inhloso enkulu yempi yakamuva yakwa-Israeli kanye ne-US sabre-rattling, njengasezikhathini eziningi ezedlule, ibe kabili. Okokuqala, ukwanda kokwesaba impi kuyindlela yokusonta izingalo ukusiza ukuvikela ukubambisana kwamanye ama-blocs ezomnotho ekuqiniseni unswinyo e-Iran. Okwesibili, izinsongo ngokwazo zihloselwe ukuvusa uTehran ekukhulumeni noma ezenzweni zokuziphindiselela. Kuzo zombili lezi zimo, ukwesaba impi kube yimpumelelo.
I-European Union kulindeleke ukuthi ivumelane nokuvinjelwa kokungenisa uwoyela wase-Iran emhlanganweni ozoba seBrussels ngomhlaka-30 Januwari. I-EU ithenga cishe imiphongolo engu-500,000 ngosuku (bpd) yezigidi ezingu-2.6 ze-bpd zikawoyela othunyelwa ngaphandle wase-Iran. IJapan (engenisa u-10% kawoyela ongahluziwe e-Iran) isimemezele ukuthi izimisele ukwehlisa kakhulu ukuthengwa kwayo kuleli. Zombili lezi zinyathelo ziphinde ziyizimpendulo zesinqumo sikaMongameli waseMelika uBarack Obama, ekupheleni kukaDisemba, sokwengeza isigatshana kuMthethosivivinywa Wokugunyazwa Kwezokuvikela wangowezi-2012, ovimbela noma iyiphi inkampani esebenza e-US ukuthi isebenzelane ne-Iranian Central Bank. Uma kubhekwa ukuhlangana kwe-Iranian Central Bank kanye nezimboni zikawoyela negesi zikahulumeni wase-Iranian, lokhu 'kuzokwenza kucishe kungenzeki ngabacwengi abaningi ukuthenga okungahluziwe e-Iran, engumkhiqizi wesine omkhulu emhlabeni', kubika i-Reuters ngomhlaka-1 Januwari. I-Japan ifuna ukukhululwa kulezi unswinyo olusha lwe-US oluhlangene, futhi izimisele ukunciphisa ukuhwebelana kwayo ne-Iran ukuze ithole lokhu kuhoxiswa. I-EU ingase ifune okufanayo. Umphumela uzoba nzima. Ukuhlaziywa kukaJavier Blas, Umhleli Wezimpahla ku-Financial Times, ngomhlaka-19 Disemba, kwaphetha ngokuthi i-Iran izokuthola kunzima ukuvikela amakhasimende amasha ngowoyela wayo, futhi kunzima ngokufanayo ukukhulisa ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamanye amazwe kumakhasimende ayo akhona. I-Turkey, iNingizimu Afrika, i-China kanye ne-India wonke anamandla okwandisa ukuthenga kwawo e-Iran, kodwa wonke angakuxwaya ukukhulisa ukuthembela kwawo emthonjeni owodwa. I-Iran ingumhlinzeki wesibili omkhulu wamafutha e-India (ilandela i-Saudi Arabia), kodwa i-India ibilokhu inciphisa ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe ngenxa yomthelela wezinhlawulo zezezimali zase-US ezinkokhelweni zabahluzi baseNdiya. I-China ingathenga uwoyela we-Iranian owengeziwe, kodwa kungenzeka ikwenze lokho kuphela 'ngesaphulelo esishubile' njengendlela yokwakha inqolobane yayo yamasu e-petroleum.
Konke lokhu kusho ukuthi umnotho wase-Iran osuvele unezinkinga usuzodlula esikhathini esinzima kakhulu, njengoba ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela emazweni angaphandle kunikeza imali engaphezulu kuka-60% kahulumeni. Lokhu kuzokhuphula ukungezwani kwasekhaya, mhlawumbe kuholele ekucindezelweni okwengeziwe kukahulumeni, futhi kwandise nesilingo sokushaya umbono esiteji samazwe ngamazwe. Ukuziphatha kwe-Iran kungenzeka kube okungalindelekile - kunzima futhi ukubikezela umthelela walezi zimo okhethweni lwasephalamende kulo nyaka kanye nokhetho lukamongameli ngonyaka ozayo.
Ukubuyela emuva ezijezisweni ezintsha zezezimali zika-Obama: uma zonke izikhungo zezezimali nabahwebi abasebenza e-US bephoqeleka ukuthi banqamule konke ukuthengiselana kwezezimali ne-Iranian Central Bank, umnotho wase-Iran uzokhubazeka. U-Obama ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi uzosebenzisa amandla akhe amasha ngendlela eguquguqukayo, kodwa unswinyo cishe kuyisenzo sezomnotho sokulwa ne-Iran.
Uhulumeni wase-Irani usanda kwenza owakhe u-sabre-rattling, ephendula zonke lezi zingcindezi, okwenze kwaba lula ukuthi abezindaba baseNtshonalanga baveze izwe njengamandla angenangqondo futhi ayingozi. Ukuhlasela kwenxusa laseBrithani ngababhikishi base-Iran ngoNovemba kumele ngabe kwagunyazwa ingxenye yombutho wezokuvikela noma uhulumeni.
Phakathi kokwethulwa kwemicibisholo kanye nezinsongo zokuthuthwa kwemikhumbi eGulf, nokho, kube khona, nokho, umzamo kaTehran wokuqalisa kabusha izingxoxo ngohlelo lwayo lwenuzi. Emlandweni odlule, lolu hlelo luzonqatshwa yiWashington neLondon.
Ngabe kuzoba nesiteleka saseMelika noma sakwa-Israel e-Iran ngo-2012? Ngingathanda ukuhambisana ne-Financial Times, ecabanga ukuthi akunakwenzeka ngo-2012, kodwa ukuthi u-2013 uzoba unyaka oyingozi kakhulu. Ngaphandle kwanoma yini enye, akunakwenzeka ukubona uMongameli Obama eqala impi ngesikhathi somkhankaso wokhetho kabusha.
Sengikushilo lokho, i-US kanye ne-Israel (ngemvume yase-US) sebevele benza impi ngokumelene ne-Iran. Igciwane lekhompyutha le-Stuxnet elingeniswe ezikhungweni zenuzi zase-Iran, ukubulawa kososayensi benuzi base-Iran, ukuqhuma kwamabhomu ngaphakathi kwe-Iran, konke kuyingxenye yohlelo lwezempi olugxilile. I-US yaziwa nangokuthi ixhasa ngezimali amaqembu amaphekula ahlukene kanye nama-fundamentalist ngaphakathi kwezwe. U-Seymour Hersh udalule imisebenzi ecashile yase-US ngokumelene ne-Iran esihlokweni saseNew Yorker ngomhla ka-7 July 2008. Iqembu elilodwa i-US elisekela i-Jundallah, eyaziwa nangokuthi i-Iranian People's Resistance Movement, ezichaza ngokwawo njengamabutho aphikisayo alwela amalungelo amaSunni I-Iran. I-Jundallah ('amasosha kaNkulunkulu'), echazwa 'njengeNhlangano Yamaphekula Yangaphandle' nguMnyango Wezwe LaseMelika, empeleni iyiqembu lamaphekula ohlobo lwe-al-Qa'eda. Phezu kwakho konke lokhu, vele, i-US nayo ilwa impi yezomnotho e-Iran. Uma bekuwukufuna i-embargo kawoyela, lokho kungaba isenzo esicacile sempi ngokumelene neTehran. Ngokuletha isivimbelo sikawoyela ngokwengxenye ngokungaqondile, ngokusebenzisa unswinyo lwezezimali, i-US ingafinyelela umphumela ofanayo ngaphandle kwemiphumela yezombangazwe nezomthetho.
Uma kukhona ukuhlasela kwe-US e-Iran, akunangqondo ukuzama ukukhipha izinsiza zenuzi. Lokho kuzobuyisela emuva uhlelo, kube kuholela ezindlekweni ezinkulu zezombusazwe, ezomnotho kanye nezokuphepha. Akuwenzi futhi umqondo ukuzama ukunqoba izwe, njengoba i-Iran inamandla kwezempi futhi ihlangene kakhulu kwezombusazwe ukuthi inganqotshwa njengoba i-Iraq yanqotshwa. Inketho enengqondo kakhudlwana, eshiwo nguNoam Chomsky, ukuthambisa izwe lonke (okungaqukethe lutho oluzuzisa imibuso emikhulu) kanye nokushaqa isifundazwe sama-Arab esisentshonalanga, esinothe ngowoyela, mhlawumbe sisinamathisele e-Iraq engumakhelwane. Ukusebenza kwalolu khetho kuncike kakhulu ekuthembekeni kukahulumeni wase-Iraq, okumele kube nokungabaza ngekusasa elibonakalayo.
Kuyaqondakala ukuthi yonke le misebenzi yezempi, yebo, ithwala izindleko ezinkulu kubantu abavamile. U-Paul Rogers wenze ukuhlola ngokucophelela umthelela wesiteleka 'esinomkhawulo' se-Oxford Research Group ngo-2010.
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Nikela