Abahlaziyi nababhali bamakholomu bayavumelana. Ukubulawa kukaPierre Gemayel kumele ukuthi kwakuwumsebenzi wezandla zaseSyria ngoba amaPhalangist akhe angamaKrestu kade engabambisene no-Israel futhi ngenxa yokuthi, njengongqongqoshe wezimboni, wayengomunye wabahamba phambili eqenjini likahulumeni waseLebanon elimelene neSyria. UMongameli Bush naye ucabanga kanjalo. Icala, ngokusobala, lixazululiwe.
Ngokungafani nozakwethu, angazi ukuthi ngubani owabulala uGemayel. Mhlawumbe iSyria yayingemuva kokudubula. Mhlawumbe, ohlelweni lwezepolitiki lwaseLebanon oludume kabi olugcwele uzungu noluhlukumezayo, othile onenzondo noGemayel - ngisho nangaphakathi kweqembu lakhe - wasusa ingxabano. Noma mhlawumbe, u-Israyeli waphinda wagoba imisipha yengalo yakhe ende eLebanon.
Nokho, kubonakala sengathi ithuba lokugcina alikwazi ukujatshulelwa
umphakathi ohloniphekile. Ngakho-ke ake nginikeze imicabango embalwa engenanhlonipho.
Njengoba noma ubani obuka uchungechunge lobugebengu be-TV azi, uma kungenabufakazi obanele ophenyweni lokubulala umuntu agwetshelwe icala, abaseshi bahlola izisusa zezinhlangothi ezimele ukuhlomula kulobo bugebengu. Abaseshi abangcono baphinde babheke ukuthi ngabe umsolwa ophambili - umuntu oqala ukubona ukuthi unecala - empeleni akaphenduki inkohliso ngenye yezinhlangano. Umbulali kungenzeka kube ngumuntu ohlomula ngokucace kakhulu ebugebengwini, noma umbulali kungaba ngumuntu ohlomula ngokunikwa umsolwa oyinhloko icala lokubulala.
Njengoba iningi losopolitiki bethu kanye nabahlaziyi bemithombo yezindaba baye baphetha, izinsolo ziwela ngokuzenzakalelayo eSyria ngoba ama-Christian Phalangists angenye yezitha ezinkulu zaseSyria eLebanon. Ngokwengxenye ngenxa yalokhu, baye baphikisana nemizamo yakamuva yomlingani omkhulu weSyria eLebanon, iqembu lamaShiite i-Hizbullah, yokuthola ingxenye enkulu yamandla ezombusazwe.
Bakhona futhi - futhi lokhu kubonakala kuvumelana nezibukeli eziningi - ingxenye
yeningi kuhulumeni osekela iMelika weFuad Siniora ukuthi
isekela inkantolo yeZizwe Ezihlangene ukuze igwebe ababulali bakaRafik Hariri, i
Usopolitiki omelene neSyria nomholi womphakathi wamaSulumane amaSunni, owaqhunyiswa yibhomu emotweni esikhathini esingaphezu konyaka nesigamu edlule.
Phela ongqongqoshe bamaShiite abayisithupha baphuma ekhabhinethi yaseSiniora bebabili
emasontweni edlule, futhi manje ngokubulawa kukaGemayel, uhulumeni usezowa, futhi nayo inkantolo wonke umuntu alindele ukuthi ifake iSyria ekubulaweni kukaHariri. Uma iSyria โingaqhululaโ abanye ongqongqoshe bekhabhinethi ababili bese uhulumeni elahlekelwa ikhoramu yawo, iSyria izobe ingasekho - noma kanjalo iqhuba umqondo wababukeli baseNtshonalanga.
Kodwa ingabe lobu โbufakaziโ benza iSyria ibe umsolwa oyinhloko noma i-fallguy?
Ngabe izithakazelo ezibanzi zaseSyria zizothinteka kanjani ngokubulawa, futhi kuthiwani ngezintshisekelo zika-Israyeli ekufeni kukaGemayel - noma kunalokho, izintshisekelo zayo
I-Hizbullah noma iSyria isolwa ngokufa kukaGemayel?
Eqinisweni, u-Israyeli uzozuza ngezindlela eziningi kulokhu kungezwani
ukucasulwa ukubulawa, njengoba imibuthano edumile nethukuthele eBeirut ngokumelene neSyria neHizbullah ifakazela.
Okokuqala, futhi ngokusobala, i-Hizbullah - njengepolitiki eyinhloko yaseSyria kanye
umngane wezempi eLebanon - uphoqeleke ngokuzumayo ngemuva
unyawo. I-Hizbullah ibilokhu igibele phezulu ngemuva kokunqoba kwayo ehlobo lokumelana nokuhlasela kwe-Israel e-Lebanon kanye nokuhlasela.
ibutho elazama ukuthumba eningizimu yezwe.
Ukuthandwa nokwethembeka kukaHizbullah kwakhuphuka kakhulu kangangokuthi abaholi
womphakathi wamaShiite ubukade unethemba lokuthola imali ngaleyo mpumelelo
ekhaya ngokufuna amandla engeziwe. Lesi ngesinye sezizathu ezenze ongqongqoshe bamaShiite abayisithupha baphuma ekhabhinethi yaseSiniora.
Naphezu kwendlela amaqembu amaShiite abeyiyo kwezombusazwe
okwethulwa eNtshonalanga, kunezizathu eziningi zokuthi izimfuno zabo zifanelekile. Uhlelo lokumeleleka kwezombusazwe eLebanon lwaqiniswa emashumini eminyaka edlule umbuso wangaphambili wamakoloni, iFrance, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi amandla ayabiwa phakathi kwemiphakathi yamaKrestu namaSunni Muslim. AmaSulumane angamaShiite, ihlelo lezenkolo elikhulu kunawo wonke ezweni, abelokhu egcinwe emingceleni yalolu hlelo kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, aphucwa amalungelo.
Ngokunqoba kwabo kwezempi kwakamuva, lesi kwaba yisikhathi u-Hizbullah ayenethemba ngaso
ukwenza intuthuko nokuphoqelela ukuvumelana kwezepolitiki kumaSunni namaKristu, izivumelwano ezingaqondile ezazizozuzisa iSyria. Ngokufa kukaGemayel, amathuba alokho manje abukeka emancane ngempela. I-Hizbullah, kanye ne-Syria, yilabo abahluliwe; U-Israel, ofuna i-Hizbullah ibe buthaka, nguye owinile.
Okwesibili, ukubulawa kwabantu kuphushe iLebanon onqenqemeni lwenye
impi yezikhali. Ngohlelo lwezepolitiki olungakwazi ukuqukatha amahlelo
ukungezwani, futhi njengoba amaqembu ahlukene engafuni ukuyekethisa ngemva kwezigameko zokubulawa kwamuva nje, kunengozi yangempela yokuthi ukulwa kuzobuyela emigwaqweni yaseLebanon.
Lokhu ngokuqinisekile ngeke kuzuze iLebanoni nanoma yikuphi kwayo
imiphakathi yezenkolo, abazohudulelwa komunye umjikelezo we
ukuchitheka kwegazi. Amaqembu angaphansi komhlaba e-Hizbullah athatha impi yakwa-Israel ngokungangabazeki kuyodingeka aphume lapho ayecashe khona futhi azokhokha inani elikhulu ngokumelene namanye amasosha ahlome kahle.
Izinzuzo zeSyria zixubene kakhulu. Inzuzo engaba khona ukuthi a
impi yombango echitha igazi ingase yenyuse ingcindezi ku-United States ukuthi ikhulume neSyria, futhi ngokunokwenzeka ukuyimema ukuthi ibambe iqhaza eliphambili futhi
ukuzinzisa iLebanon, njengoba kwenza phakathi nempi yombango yokugcina.
Kepha, uma kubhekwa ukukhuphuka okuqhubekayo koklebe eWashington, kungase kube nomphumela ophambene, kukhuthaze i-US ukuthi ihlukanise iSyria ngokuqhubekayo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, impi yombango ingase ibe izinsongo ezinkulu ezithakazelweni zaseSyria -
futhi unikeze izinzuzo ezibalulekile ku-Israyeli. Uma amandla ka-Hizbullah ekhona
enciphe kakhulu empini yombango, u-Israyeli angase abe sesimweni esingcono kakhulu sokuhlasela iLebanon futhi. Cishe wonke umuntu kwa-Israyeli kuvunyelwene ngokuthi ibutho lakwa-Israel liyalunywa ukuxazulula amaphuzu ne-Hizbullah komunye umzuliswano wokulwa.
Ngale ndlela ingase ithole impi elandelayo eyifunayo ngemibandela engcono kakhulu; noma
I-Israel ingase ikwazi ukulwa nempi ye-proxy ngokumelene ne-Hizbullah ngokusiza abaphikisi beqembu lamaShiite.
Ngokuqinisekile enye yezinhloso eziyinhloko zomkhankaso wamabhomu wakwa-Israyeli phezu kwe
ehlobo, lapho ingxenye enkulu yengqalasizinda yaseLebanon icekelwa phansi, kwabonakala ivusa impi yombango enjalo. Ngaleso sikhathi kwabikwa kabanzi ukuthi ojenene bakwa-Israel babenethemba lokuthi lo monakalo wawuzovusa imiphakathi yamaKrestu, amaSunni namaDruze ukuthi ivukele iHizbullah.
Okwesithathu, iSyria isivele ingumsolwa oqavile ekubulaweni kukaHariri nase
ukubulawa kwabanye osopolitiki baseLebanon nezintatheli, bonke
ibonwe njenge-anti-Syria, ezinyangeni ezingu-21 ezedlule.
I-US yaxhaphaza ukufa kukaHariri, kanye nemibhikisho esabalele lokho
kwalandela, ukuxosha iSiriya eLebanoni. Ukususwa kweSyria endaweni yesigameko nakho kwahlahla indlela, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ngamabomu noma cha, ukuhlasela kuka-Israel kuleli hlobo, obekungaba yingozi kakhulu esifundeni ukube iSyria ibiseLebanon.
Naphezu kokusongela okuzayo kwenkantolo ye-UN ekufeni kukaHariri, kusukela
Umbono weSyria izinsolo sezikhulile ngokuhamba kwesikhathi futhi
besabisa ngokufakazela kuphela lokho wonke umuntu waseNtshonalanga asekukholelwa kakade.
Ngokuphuma kongqongqoshe bamaShiite kuhulumeni waseLebanon, uphenyo belubukeka lungenamsebenzi kunoma yikuphi.
Ukubulawa kukaGemayel, nokho, kuvuselele intshisekelo kuye
umbuzo wokuthi ubani owabulala uHariri futhi uletha iSiriya ngokuqinile emuva
ukukhanya. Akukho kulokhu okuzuzisa iSiriya, kodwa ngokungangabazeki u-Israyeli uzokwazi
ukuthatha injabulo enkulu ekuphathekeni kabi kweDamaseku.
Okwesine, uhulumeni wakwa-Israel ubengaphansi kwengcindezi yamazwe ngamazwe neyasekhaya ukuthi axoxisane neSyria futhi axoxisane ngokubuyiselwa kweGolan Heights, indawo yaseSyria ebilokhu iyithatha kusukela ngo-1967.
Ngalokhu kuzoxazululwa umbuzo onzima wamapulazi aseShebaa,
esaphethwe yi-Israel kodwa i-Hizbullah ne-Syria abathi njengamaLebhanon
indawo okwakufanele ibuyiswe ekuhoxeni kuka-Israyeli eLebanon ngo-2000. Isimo seShebaa Farms kube ngesinye sezindawo ezivelele zokungqubuzana phakathi kwe-Israel ne-Hizbullah.
UMengameli u-Assad waseSyria ubelokhu eveza obala ukuthi usekulungele
xoxa ngokubuya kuka-Israyeli e-Golan Heights ngemibandela engcono kwa-Israyeli kunanini ngaphambili.
Ngokwemibiko kwabezindaba yakwa-Israel, u-Assad uzilungiselele
susa impi i-Golan futhi uyiguqule ibe ipaki kazwelonke engavulekele ama-Israel. Cishe wayengeke futhi aphikelele ekubuyeleni okunembile emngceleni ka-1967, ohlanganisa ugu olusenyakatho yoLwandle LwaseGalile. Ngokwesiko abaholi bakwa-Israyeli baphikisana nalo mbono, futhi bavusa ukwesaba okudumile ngokuhlanganisa umbono kayise ka-Assad, uHafez, ecwilisa izinyawo zakhe echibini.
Kodwa uma izingxoxo eGolan zifunwa kakhulu ngabasha
U-Assad, u-Israel akabonisi intshisekelo yokuhlola inketho. Undunankulu wakwa-Israel, u-Ehud Olmert, usekunqabele kaningi ukuthi angakhulumi neDamaseku. Lokho kungenxa yezizathu ezimbalwa:
* U-Israyeli, njengoba kungase kulindelwe efomini elidlule, akakho esimweni salokho
ukwenza izivumelwano zendawo;
* ayifuni ukuqeda isimo se-pariah yaseSyria kanye nokuhlukaniswa
ukwenza isivumelwano sokuthula nayo;
* futhi inovalo lokuthi isivumelwano esinjalo singaphakamisa ukuthi izingxoxo namaPalestine zingenzeka futhi.
Ukuthula neSyria, emehlweni akwa-Israyeli, kungaholela ngokungenakuvinjelwa ekucindezelweni
yenza ukuthula namaPalestine. Lokho ngokuqinisekile akuyona ingxenye yohlelo luka-Israyeli.
Ukufa kukaGemayeli, kanye neSyria esolwa ngakho, kuphoqa iDamaseku ukuthi ibuye
esibayeni se-โAxis of Evilโ, futhi sigwema noma yikuphi usongo lwezingxoxo
iGolan.
Okwesihlanu, ingcindezi ibilokhu ikhula ku-US Administration ukuthi iqale
ukukhuluma neSyria, uma nje ukuzama ukuyifaka "empini yokwesaba" yaseWashington. I-US ingakwazi ukwenza ngosizo lwasendaweni ekulawuleni ukusebenza kwayo e-Iraq. Akukacaci ukuthi uBush usekulungele yini ukwenza ijika elinjalo, kodwa kusengenzeka.
Abalingani ababalulekile abanjengoTony Blair waseBrithani bafuna ngamandla
ukusebenzelana neSyria, kokubili ukuze kuqhutshekwe nokuhlukanisa i-Iran - okungase kuhloswe ngakho isiteleka sase-US noma sakwa-Israel ngokumelene nezifiso zayo ezicatshangwayo zezikhali zenuzi - kanye nokuvula indlela eya ezingxoxweni namaPalestine.
Ukufa kukaGemayel, kanye necala leSyria ngakho, kuqinisa icala le
ama-neoconservatives e-Washington - Abalingani bakwa-Israyeli ku-Administration
- inkanyezi yakhe yase iqale ukuncipha. Manje sebengaphikisana ngokuqiniseka ukuthi iSyria ayiguquki futhi ayiguquki. Umphumela onjalo usiza ukugwema ingozi, ngokombono we-Israel, yokuthi amajuba e-White House angase anqobe impikiswano yokujwayelana neSiriya.
Kuzo zonke lezi zizathu, kufanele siqaphele ukucabanga ukuthi iSyria iyona
iqembu ngemuva kokushona kukaGemayel - noma ukuphela komlingisi wesifunda ozigaxayo
ILebanoni.
UJonathan Cook uyintatheli nombhali ozinze eNazareth, kwa-Israel. Okwakhe
Incwadi ethi Blood and Religion: The Unmasking of the Jewish and Democratic State ishicilelwe ngabakwaPluto Press. Iwebhusayithi yakhe ithi www.jkcook.net
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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