IPhilippines izobukeka izuze ukunqoba okukhulu ngokumelene neChina esinqumweni senkantolo yamazwe ngamazwe sakamuva eHague, esichithe izimangalo zaseShayina ezingxenyeni zaseNingizimu China Sea ezifunwa yiPhilippines namanye amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia.
Ekukhuzeni okukhulu kwesicelo seShayina kumaphesenti angama-90 oLwandle LwaseNingizimu ne-China, iNkantolo Ehlala Phambili Yokulamula yesigcawu yasichitha isiqiniseko sikaBeijing sokuthi ukwakheka komhlaba kanye namanzi endaweni ngokomlando kwehle ngaphansi kombuso waseShayina kuphela.
Kuthiwa isahlulelo saseHague asizuzisi iPhilippines kuphela, kodwa wonke amanye amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia afuna ezinye izingxenye zeSouth China Sea. Abanye baphinde baphikise ngokuthi lokhu kumisa izibonelo ezibalulekile zokuxazulula izingxabano zasolwandle phakathi kwamazwe kuzo zonke izingxenye zomhlaba.
Kodwa isinqumo saseHague asikona ukunqoba okungahleliwe kwePhilippines. Futhi okungenani esikhathini esifushane, ngeke ivule umnyango wokuthula esifundeni.
Akuyona Ingxabano Yendawo Elula
I-South China Sea irowu akuyona ingxabano elula yendawo. Eqinisweni, umuntu angasho ukuthi isukela ikakhulukazi embangweni oshubile wezwe phakathi kwe-United States ne-China, ne-Philippines nezinye izifundazwe eziwumonakalo wokubambisa.
Umuntu akakwazi ukuqonda ukuthi kungani iChina yenze ngendlela eyenze ngayo ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngokushaqeka okukhulu ubuholi baseShayina abakuthola ngo-1996, lapho - ngemva kweminyaka engama-24 yokuncibilika kanye nobudlelwano bobungani ne-United States - iphathwa ngendlela ekhombisa amandla. yamaqembu amabili empi yabathwali bezindiza abathunyelwe abaphathi bakaClinton ukuze bayixwayise ukuthi ihlehle ngesikhathi se-Taiwan Strait Crisis. Enye yezinkampani ezithwala impahla, i-USS Nimitz, yahamba ngomkhumbi ngendlela ecasulayo edabula iTaiwan Strait. Lona bekuwumbukiso omkhulu kunayo yonke wamasosha ase-US esifundeni kusukela ngeMpi yaseVietnam.
Ukwesaba kweChina kwajula lapho abaphathi bakaGeorge W. Bush, ngisho nangaphambi kokuhlasela kwangomhla ka-9/11, bephuma ne-National Security Strategy Directive echaza kabusha i-China isuka โkuzakwethu wesuโ kuya โkumbangi wamasu.โ
Imithelela eminingi esebenzayo evela kulokho kuchazwa kabusha kwamiswa kulandela uSepthemba 11, njengoba uBush ezama kanzima ukufaka ukubambisana kwamaShayina empini yobushokobezi. Kodwa-ke abantu abaningi ePentagon, uMnyango Wezwe, kanye ne-White House bacabanga ukuthi impi yobushokobezi kanye nezigigaba zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi zokuphatha kukaBush kwakuyisiphazamiso kulokho okufanele kube yisu langempela lenqubomgomo yase-US - okwakuzogxila eChina. njengembangi enkulu yamasu.
Ekugcineni bathole isifiso sabo lapho abaphathi baka-Obama bethula i-โPivot to Asia,โ noma iPacific Pivot - evame ukubonakala njengohlelo olumbozwe kancane lokuqukatha iChina - njengesu elihle lase-US esifundeni.
Lapho IShayina Yahamba Kahle
Isici esibalulekile ekuphenduleni kweBeijing kulokho eyayikuthatha โnjengokuzungeza kwaseMelikaโ kwakuwukuphatha iSouth China Sea njengengxenye yomngcele wayo ovikelayo. Lapho i-China yenza iphutha khona kwaba seminyathelweni yayo ehlangene yokuqalisa lo mbono.
I-Beijing yayazi ukuthi yabelana ngala manzi nezinye izifundazwe okungenani eziyisithupha, okuhlanganisa ne-Taiwan, ngaphandle kwemigqa yokuklama okuvunyelwene ngayo. Bekwazi kahle ukuthi amazwe ase-ASEAN kade ecindezela izingxoxo zamazwe amaningi ukuze achaze le mingcele. Futhi kwakungekona ukungazi ngeqiniso lokuthi imithetho enemininingwane yokuklanywa kwamanzi ezindawo, izindawo zezomnotho ezikhethekile, kanye nokuzulazula kwase kufakwe emthethweni wamazwe ngamazwe yiNgqungquthela Yango-1982 Yomthetho Wolwandle, iBeijing eyase yamukelwe.
Kodwa naphezu kokwazi konke lokhu, iBeijing yaqala ukuhamba ngokunye, yaqala yasika futhi yaqinisa iMischief Reef, engaphakathi kwe-Exclusive Economic Zone yasePhilippines, maphakathi nawo-200, ngesizathu sokwakha izindawo zokukhosela zabadobi baseChina. Lokho kwalandelwa isimangalo esiphelele ngo-1990 esagomela ngokuhlangene โubukhosi obungenakuphikiswaโ beChina phezu kwazo zonke iziqhingi nokwakheka komhlaba oLwandle LwaseSouth China kanye โnamanzi aseduze/amanzi afanele.โ
Okuhambisana nombhalo kaBeijing ku-UN kwakuyigama elibi โNine-Dash Lineโ imephu. Ayikho incazelo esemthethweni yolayini we-Nine-Dash eyanikezwa ngaleso sikhathi noma kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, nakuba kuye kwaba khona izinkomba ezingekho emthethweni eziqhingini nasemanzini oLwandle LwaseNtshonalanga yePhilippine njengezindawo zamaShayina okhokho, noma ukufakwa kwawo kumamephu amadala e-Nationalist Chinese engasekho. umbuso owaqala ngasekupheleni kwawo-1940.
Kunezizathu eziningi zokuthi kungani iChina iziphathe ngendlela eyenze ngayo, kodwa okubalulekile yisinqumo samasu sokwenza le ndawo ibe yingxenye yomngcele wokuzivikela waseBeijing ngokumelene nendawo ezungezile yaseWashington. Ukufeza lo mgomo, nokho, i-China yaphendukela ekuziphatheni okukhulu kwamandla evame ukukugxeka lapho kuvezwa amazwe aseNtshonalanga, iphatha omakhelwane bayo njengento engelutho ngaphandle komonakalo oyisibambiso wokuncintisana kwayo kwezwe neWashington.
I-China ibingenza okuhlukile - ngokwesibonelo ngokusebenzisana ne-ASEAN ukwenza isivumelwano sezizwe ngezizwe ukuze kuvalwe indawo embangweni wamandla amakhulu, kanye nokuqalwa kwezingxoxo ngekhodi yokuziphatha ezobusa ukuziphatha kwamaqembu anezicelo esifundeni. Eqinisweni, lokho kwakuyinto i-China kanye namazwe ase-ASEAN ayevumelene ngayo ukuxoxisana ngo-2002.
Esikhundleni salokho, iBeijing yakhetha indlela yaseMelika yokungakhethi hlangothi, ipheka amalungelo angekho ngokusekelwe emibhalweni engabazeka kakhulu.
Ukungqubuzana Okubulalayo
Uhulumeni wasePhilippines wayeqinisile ukuletha leli cala eNkantolo Ephakeme Yokulamula eHague ngo-January 2013, njengoba amathuluzi omthetho afanele emhlabeni wonke ayekhona ukuze axazulule leli cala ngokuvumelana neSivumelwano Sango-1982 Somthetho Wasolwandle nezinye izibonelo ezingokomthetho. .
Kwabaningi ababehileleke kakhulu odabeni - kuhlanganise nami, njengelungu leNgqungquthela yasePhilippine ngaleso sikhathi - kwakusobala ukuthi umthetho wawunamandla kakhulu ohlangothini lwasePhilippines. Saqaphela ukuthi nakuba kwakungeke kwenzeke ukuthi iChina isheshe inikeze isinqumo senkantolo yaseHague enegunya layo elingazange liqashelwe, sabona ukuthola ukuqashelwa ngokomthetho kwamazwe ngamazwe kwamalungelo ethu kanye negunya lokuziphatha elihambisana nalokho njengempahla ebalulekile emzabalazweni kuzoqhubeka iminyaka eminingi.
Kodwa-ke uhulumeni wasePhilippine wasuka ejantshini, wazivumela ukuthi udliwe isivumelwano sezempi ne-United States lokho kuzokwenza futhi i-Philippines indawo enkulu yokwethulwa kokusetshenziswa kwamandla e-US ezweni lase-East Asia - ukuba yingxenye yesu elihle elimenyezelwe abaphathi baka-Obama njengokuthi "Pivot to Asia."
Kusafanele ngithole ukuthi kwenzekani ezingqondweni zalowo owayenguMongameli wase-Philippine u-Benigno Aquino III kanye noNobhala Wezangaphandle u-Albert del Rosario ukuze baphendule ngesikhathi esisodwa ithrekhi yezomthetho enokuthula eHague kanye nethrekhi yezempi evusa inkanuko ehloselwe ukuqukatha umlingisi esimfunayo. ukukholisa ukuhlonipha umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe. Mhlawumbe bacabanga ukuthi lezi zindlela ezimbili ziyahambisana. Uma kwakunjalo, kusho ukuthi kwakuwukwahlulela ngokungafanele okubizayo.
IPhilippines ne-United States basayine I-Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) ngesikhathi uMongameli Obama evakashele eManila ngo-April 2014. Lesi sivumelwano sesikhathi esingaziwa savumela i-US ukuthi ingagcini nje ngokushintshanisa amasosha ePhilippines ngezinjongo zokuqeqesha, kodwa futhi nokuthumela amasosha. , izikhali, nezinto ezisetshenziswayo ezisekelweni ezingaguquki ezingaba ngezikaPhilippine kodwa lapho ukulawulwa okugcwele kuzoba khona. ezandleni ze-United States.
Inani eliyinhloko le-Philippines e-United States bekuhlale kuwukuba kwayo indawo ekahle yokukhipha amandla ezweni lase-Asia, futhi iWashington yaphinde yathola leli thuba - ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-20 ngemva kokuba i-Clark Air Base kanye ne-Subic Naval Base baphoqwa ukuphuma kulesi sifunda inhlanganisela yokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo nokukhuphuka kobuzwe. Njengoba ukuqukatha i-China kuyisu elihle elisha lase-Washington, i-Philippines yaba enye yezindlela ezintathu zesu lase-US, ezinye izizinda zase-US e-Japan kanye nesizinda samasosha ahambayo esaziwa ngokuthi i-Seventh Fleet.
Abaphathi be-Aquino bathengise i-EDCA emphakathini wase-Philippine njengendlela yokwenza i-United States ivikele izindawo esizifunayo e-South China Sea kanye ne-Exclusive Economic Zone yethu. I-EDCA ayizange, empeleni, inikeze lokhu, futhi inkulumo-ze yokuphatha yashiya leli qiniso ngamabomu nangenkohliso. Ngokuqondene neWashington, ayikwazanga ukunikeza iziqhingi zaseSpratly kanye nokwakheka komhlaba okwafunwa ukuvikela kwePhilippines njengoba kwenza eziQhingini zaseSenkaku ezifunwa yiJapan.
Eqinisweni, impendulo kaWashington ephindaphindiwe embuzweni wokuthi iyabuqaphela yini ubukhosi basePhilippines phezu kweziqhingi iwukuthi โayiphazamisi ezindabeni zobukhosi.โ Kungase kuphawulwe lapha ukuthi ukuthula kuka-Obama kwabakwaSpratlys ngesikhathi evakashele eManila ngo-Ephreli 2014 kwaqhathanisa nokuzibophezela kwakhe okucacile ekuvikeleni amaSenkaku ngesikhathi eseJapane ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngaphambili.
Ngakho-ke iPhilippines yazuzani? Nokho, usizo lwezempi, ikakhulukazi olwalusesimweni seMpi Yezwe II lwafaka kabusha abasiki basogwini base-US. Ngokumangazayo, abaphathi be-Aquino bakhethe ukwenqaba ngisho nokucela irenti yezisekelo ezizosetshenziswa yi-US, kanti emashumini amabili eminyaka edlule sakhipha amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-180 ngonyaka ukuze iWashington isebenzise i-Subic Naval Base, i-Clark Air Force Base, nokunye ukufakwa okuningi. Ngisho noma umuntu ecabanga ukuthi isivumelwano sezempi neWashington sasidingeka - umcabango engangingavumelani nawo kakhulu - i-EDCA yayiyisivumelwano esibi.
Kodwa kwakukhona inkinga enkulu nge-EDCA. Ngaphambi kwesivumelwano, idlanzana lethu lalixwayise u-Aquino ukuthi ngeke nje sithole isiqinisekiso sokuvikela impahla yethu yaseNingizimu China Sea eWashington, kodwa siyobe sikude kakhulu nesinqumo sendaba yendawo uma sisayina i-EDCA. .
Ngani? Ngoba amandla okuncintisana kwamandla amakhulu phakathi kweChina ne-US izowubekela eceleni umbuzo wendawo. Ngaphambi kwe-EDCA, sasibancane kodwa sasibalulekile. Nge-EDCA, nokho, saziguqula saba ngabasekeli beqembu elilodwa emzabalazweni wamandla amakhulu. IVietnam neMalaysia babenokungaboni ngaso linye neChina - ngisho nokuhilizisana okuqondile endabeni yaseVietnam - kodwa iChina yababona njengomakhelwane, mhlawumbe abahluphayo, kodwa omakhelwane nokho.
Ngokungena ku-EDCA, siphumelele esigabeni esihlukile: leso sobambisene nembangi yamasu yase-China.
Njengoba ichezukile emzileni wezomthetho-wezokusebenzelana - okuwukuphela kwawo osebenzayo - ngokungena kumfelandawonye wezempi nombuso ozimisele ukuqukatha iChina, amandla okuziphatha kanye nokuthembeka kwezokuxhumana okufanele ngabe iPhilippines ikuthole ekunqobeni kwayo okungokomthetho eHague sekubekwe engcupheni. I-Beijing izohlambalaza ukunqoba kweManila ngokusemthethweni ngokubiza iPhilippines njenge-gofer yaseWashington ngesu layo elihle lokuzungeza iChina.
Sivelaphi Lapha?
Abaphathi abasha bakaMongameli uRodrigo Duterte bebesangulukile ngokufanelekile ekuphenduleni kwabo esinqumweni saseHague, basamukela kodwa bengaliphakamiseli phansi ifulegi.
Uhulumeni omusha unelungelo lokubheka, njengoba uthole ifa eliyinkinga kubaphathi bangaphambilini: isikhalazo esiyimpumelelo somthetho esiphazanyiswa umfelandawonye wezempi ovusa inkanuko. Kufanele isondele kanjani eChina odabeni lwaseNingizimu China Sea?
Angikholelwa ekungagwemeni kwamathrendi. Inhlanganisela yokuvuleleka ekuhloleni kabusha izindawo zethu, ukuzama isu elihlukile, kanye nenhlanhla kungase kuguqule izinto, nakuba umuntu kufanele avume ukuthi ngeke kube lula.
Ake sithi iBeijing ikhathazeke ngokwanele ngesithunzi sayo samazwe ngamazwe ukuze ibone ubungozi bokungaguquki, ikakhulukazi njengoba ifuna ukuhlonishwa njengombuso onamandla ongazimisele ukudicilela phansi isimo esikhona emhlabeni. Futhi masiphinde sikubeke ukuthi i-China ingathanda ikusasa lokuthula nomakhelwane bayo esikhundleni sokungezwani okungapheli okungase kuqubuke ezingxabanweni ezisobala.
Uma lawo maqiniso evuma, nazi izinyathelo ezingase zibe khona eziya ekuxazululeni le nkinga.
Okokuqala, njengoba kuyingxenye yezempi okuyiyona ehamba phambili ekuziphatheni kweChina, iPhilippines neChina bangavumelana ukuthi kube nezingxoxo zamazwe amabili zokuthi kungadambisa kanjani ukungezwani phakathi kwamazwe. Inhloso yalezi zingxoxo ngeke kube ukuxazulula udaba lwezindawo kodwa ukuxoxisana ngokudilizwa kwezempi. Esinye isiphakamiso esingaba khona kungaba ukumiswa kwemisebenzi yaseShayina yokwakha isisekelo ukuze kunqandwe ukuqaliswa kwe-EDCA. Nakuba izingxoxo bekungeke kugxile embangweni wasolwandle, okunye ukukhuluma ngakho ngeke kugwemeke, yingakho kungaba okungalungile ngeChina futhi kungamukeleki ePhilippines ukuthi ingabhekiseli kuyo njengombandela wangaphambili wezingxoxo.
Okwesibili, mhlawumbe kanye kanye nezingxoxo zamazwe amabili e-Philippine-China, i-ASEAN ne-China bangaqala izingxoxo zamazwe ngamazwe ezihlehliswe isikhathi eside mayelana nekhodi yokuziphatha ukuze kubuse ukuziphatha kwasolwandle kwazo zonke izinhlangothi ezinezicelo eziya eSouth China Sea ezavumelana ukuba nazo ngo-2002.
Okwesithathu, uma lezi zinyathelo ezimbili zokwakha ukuzethemba zithola impumelelo ethile, i-ASEAN ne-China zingadlulela ezingxoxweni ukuze kufinyelelwe ekususweni okukhulu kwezikhali kanye nokususwa kwezikhali zenuzi eSouth China Sea, ngenhloso yokuqhamuka nesivumelwano sezizwe ngezizwe esizoba yisibopho kuzo zonke izinhlangothi. , okuhlanganisa abantu besithathu njenge-United States.
Isivumelwano esinjalo, vele, singadinga ukulahlwa kwe-EDCA ngasohlangothini lwe-Philippines kanye nokuhlakazwa kwezakhiwo zamasosha oLwandle oluseNingizimu ne-China engxenyeni ye-China. Lesi sivumelwano sizohambisana nezivumelwano ezimbili zangaphambilini ze-ASEAN - isivumelwano sokwenza i-ASEAN ibe Indawo Yokuthula, Inkululeko, Nokungathathi hlangothi (ZOPFAN) kanye ne-Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Agreement (SEANWFZ). Kungase futhi kube ngumanduleli wesivumelwano sokuphepha esihlangene saseMpumalanga Asia esingangena esikhundleni sebhalansi eyingozi neguquguqukayo yepolitiki yamandla evele ikhuthaze umjaho wezikhali ongalawuleki.
Ekugcineni, i-ASEAN ne-China zingaqala inqubo yokuxazulula izimangalo zazo eziqhudelanayo Ezindaweni Zomnotho Ezikhethekile namashalofu ezwekazi futhi zidingide ukuthuthukiswa okuhlanganyelwe kwezindawo zokudoba nezinye izinsiza. Uma kucatshangelwa ukuzwela kwezombusazwe, lokhu kungase kube izinhlelo ezingokoqobo esikhundleni sezivumelwano noma izivumelwano ezigcwele ngokugcwele, futhi ngeke kwenze i-China ifune ukusiyeka ngokusemthethweni isimangalo sayo se-Nine-Dash-Line - okungenani hhayi esikhathini esifushane.
I-diplomacy kaManila kumele igxile esinqumweni saseHague esiqinisekisa amalungelo ayo oLwandle LwasePhilippine, kodwa lokhu kumele kuhlanganiswe nokuziqhelelanisa nesu lokuqukatha amasosha aseWashington, ukubambisana okusondelene kakhulu nomakhelwane base-ASEAN, nokuzimisela nokubekezela ukuhamba ibanga elide ekusebenzelaneni. neBeijing.
Ama-Filipinos namaShayina, ngemva kwakho konke, bobabili abantu base-Asiya - abantu abahlukaniswe ubukoloniyali, i-imperialism, iMpi Yomshoshaphansi, kanye nezinhlelo eziqhubekayo ze-hegemonic zamandla angaphandle kwesifunda. Sekuyisikhathi sokuthi izinhlangothi zombili zizibophezele ukuvala lokho kwehlukana, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi leyo nqubo ingaba nzima kangakanani ekuqaleni. Isikhathi sokuphephezelisa ifulegi nezisombululo ezingamanga sesiphelile. Sekuyisikhathi sokuthembisana umshado.
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