UVladimir Putin, u-Recep Tayyip Erdogan kanye no-Hassan Rouhani bazoba nengqungquthela ngoLwesithathu eSochi ukudingida iSyria. I-Russia, iTurkey kanye ne-Iran bangabadlali abathathu abanamandla ezingxoxweni zase-Astana - lapho ukunqanyulwa kwengxabano okuningi, okunzima ukukusebenzisa njengoba kunjalo, okungenani kuvela, kancane kodwa ngokuqinisekile, kufinyelele ekuhlosweni kokugcina - ukuxazulula ipolitiki.
I-Syria ezinzile ibalulekile kuzo zonke izinhlangothi ezithintekayo ekuhlanganisweni kwe-Eurasia. Njenge-Asia Times kubika, i-China ikwenze kwacaca ukuthi i-Syria ezolile izogcina isiyisizinda seNew Silk Roads, eyaziwa ngokuthi i-Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - yakhela kwi-bonanza yangaphambilini yebhizinisi yamabutho abahwebi abancane abahamba phakathi kwe-Yiwu ne-Levant.
Kude nezinkinga zempi nokuthula ezingalawuleki, kukhanyisela nakakhulu ukubona ukuthi iTurkey, i-Iran neRussia zidlala kanjani izinguqulo zazo ezidlulanayo zokuhlanganiswa kwezomnotho kwe-Eurasia kanye/noma ibhizinisi elihlobene ne-BRI.
Okuningi kuhlobene namandla/ukuxhumana kwezokuthutha phakathi kwamanethiwekhi ezitimela - futhi, nasendleleni ezansi komgwaqo, ujantshi wesitimela esinesivinini esikhulu - kanye nalokho engikuchazile, kusukela ekuqaleni kwawo-2000, njengoba I-Pipelineistan.
Ipayipi lepayipi i-Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC), isivumelwano esenziwa mathupha e-Baku ngongasekho uDkt Zbigniew โGrand Chessboardโ Brzezinski, kwaba ukuketulwa umbuso okukhulu kwamandla/kwezombangazwe okwenziwa ngabaphathi bakaClinton, bendlala intambo yensimbi phakathi kwe-Azerbaijan, Georgia kanye Turkey.
Manje sekuza ujantshi wesitimela i-Baku-Tblisi-Kars (BTK) - ovulwe ngenjabulo enkulu ngu-Erdogan kanye noMongameli wase-Azerbaijani u-Ilham Aliyev kanye noNdunankulu waseGeorgia uGiorgi Kvirikashvili, kodwa futhi noNdunankulu waseKazakh u-Bakhytzhan Sagintayev kanye noNdunankulu wase-Uzbek u-Abdulla Aripov. Phela, lokhu kumayelana nokuhlanganiswa kweCaucasus ne-Asia Ephakathi.
U-Erdogan wahamba ngempela eminye Top: I-BTK "iwuchungechunge olubalulekile ku-New Silk Road, oluhlose ukuxhuma i-Asia, i-Afrika, ne-Europe." Umhubhe omusha wezokuthutha umiswe njengesikhungo esibalulekile sase-Eurasia esingahlanganisi iCaucasus ne-Asia Emaphakathi kuphela kodwa futhi, ku-Big Picture, i-EU ne-Western China.
I-BTK iseyisiqalo nje, kucatshangelwa isu lesikhathi eside lesitimela esinesivinini esikhulu esakhiwe ngamaShayina sisuka e-Xinjiang sinqamule e-Asia Emaphakathi size sifike e-Iran, eTurkey, futhi vele, indawo yamaphupho: i-EU. U-Erdogan angabona ngokucacile ukuthi iTurkey ibekwe kanjani ngendlela yokwenza inzuzo ngayo.
Yiqiniso, i-BTK akuyona i-panacea. Ezinye izindawo zokuxhumanisa phakathi kwe-Iran neTurkey zizovela, kanti ezinye izixhumi ezibalulekile ze-BRI zizokhula ngesivinini eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, njengeBhuloho Lomhlaba lase-Eurasian ngaphesheya kweTrans-Siberian evuselelwe kabusha kanye nenguqulo eneqhwa yoMgwaqo Kasilika waseMaritime: eNyakatho. Umzila Wasolwandle ngaphesheya kwe-Arctic.
Okuthakazelisa kakhulu ecaleni le-BTK ukuxhumana kwePipelineistan ne Ipayipi Legesi LaseTrans-Anatolian (TANAP), iletha igesi yemvelo evela ensimini enkulu yegesi yase-Azeri i-Shah Deniz-2 iya eTurkey futhi ekugcineni i-EU.
Umhlaziyi waseTurkey uCemil Ertem uyagcizelela, โnjenge-TANAP, i-BTK Railway ayihlanganisi amazwe amathathu kuphela, kodwa futhi ingenye yezindlela eziyinhloko zohwebo nezokuthutha e-Asia naseYurophu, futhi ikakhulukazi amachweba aseKazakhstan naseTurkmenistan. Ixhuma i-Asia Emaphakathi neTurkey ngephrojekthi ye-Marmaray e-Istanbul kanye nangesifunda saseCaspian. Kanye ne-Southern Gas Corridor, ewumgogodla we-TANAP, izophinde ixhume amachweba aseNingizimu China Sea ukuya eYurophu ngeTurkey. "
Akumangalisi ukuthi i-BTK iye yahlangatshezwa nokwamukelwa okujabulisayo kulo lonke elaseTurkey - noma, uma singathi, lokho obekwaziwa nge-Asia Minor. Ikubeka ngokucacile, ngokusobala, ukuzulazula kwe-Ankara eMpumalanga (njengasekuhwebeni okwandayo neChina) kanye nesinyathelo esisha sokusebenzisana okuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu phakathi kwe-Ankara neMoscow; "ama-stans" ase-Asia Ephakathi, ngemuva kwakho konke, awela emkhakheni wethonya lomlando waseRussia.
Ngeza kukho ukuthengiswa (okulindile) kwe-Russian kohlelo lokuvikela imicibisholo ye-S-400 e-Ankara, kanye nentshisekelo yaseRussia neyamaShayina yokuba neTurkey njengelungu eligcwele le-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Ukusuka ku-IPI kuye ku-IP bese kuba II
Manje qhathanisa ukuketula umbuso kwe-BTK neyodwa yemidlalo yaseshashalazini ye-Pipelineistan elenga eweni; IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India), phambilini ibibizwa ngokuthi โi ipayipi lokuthula".
I-IPI ekuqaleni bekumele ixhumanise iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Iran nenyakatho ye-India ngaphesheya kwe-Balochistan, ngechweba lasePakistan laseGwadar (manje eyisizinda esiyinhloko se-China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC). Abaphathi bakaBush no-Obama benza konke ukuvimbela i-IPI ukuthi ingaphinde yakhiwe, esikhundleni salokho babheja imbangi ye-TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) - empeleni eyayizonqamula indawo yempi empumalanga ye-Herat, Afghanistan.
I-TAPI ingase yakhiwe ekugcineni - ngisho noma amaTaliban enqatshelwa ukusikwa kwawo (lokho kwakuyingxabano eminyakeni engu-20 edlule nokuphatha kukaClinton: amalungelo ezokuthutha). Muva nje, iRussia inyuse umdlalo wayo, i-Gazprom iyenga i-India ukuthi ibe nguzakwethu ekwakhiweni kwe-TAPI.
Kodwa kwabe sekufika isimemezelo sakamuva sikaNgqongqoshe Wezamandla waseRussia u-Aleksandr Novak: IMoscow kanye neTehran bazosayina isivumelwano sokusebenzisana sokwakha ipayipi legesi elingu-1,200km elisuka e-Iran liya eNdiya; yibize II. Futhi i-Gazprom, ngokufana, izotshala imali ezizindeni zegesi zase-Iranian ezingakahlolwa eduze komzila.
Ngaphandle kweqiniso lokuwina okukhulu kwe-Gazprom - ukwandisa ukufinyelela kwayo eSouth Asia - i-clincher ukuthi iphrojekthi ngeke kube i-IPI yangempela (empeleni i-IP), lapho i-Iran isivele yakha indawo efinyelela emngceleni futhi yanikeza usizo ku-Islamabad. ukwakha indawo yayo; umnyakazo ozobe ukhungethwe unswinyo lwaseMelika. Iphrojekthi ye-Gazprom izoba ipayipi elihamba ngaphansi kwamanzi elisuka e-Persian Gulf liya oLwandlekazini i-Indian.
Ngokombono weNew Delhi, lokhu kuwukuwina kokugcina. I-TAPI isalokhu iyisiphakamiso esibi, futhi i-India idinga wonke uphethiloli engawuthola, ngokushesha. Kucatshangwa ukuthi ukuphathwa okusha kukaTrump "Indo-Pacific" kuphethe inkulumo-ze, iNew Delhi inethemba lokuthi ngeke ishaywe unswinyo ngoba yenza ibhizinisi ne-Iran neRussia.
Futhi-ke kwakukhona enye intuthuko ebalulekile evela ekuvakasheni kwakamuva kukaPutin eTehran: umqondo - ngqo ngaphandle kwe-BRI - wokwakha isixhumanisi sesitimela phakathi kweSt. Petersburg (eBaltic) kanye nechweba laseChabahar eduze nePersian Gulf. I-Chabahar yenzeka ibe isizinda esibalulekile sempendulo yaseNdiya ku-BRI: a isixhumanisi sohwebo lwasolwandle ukuya e-Afghanistan nase-Asia Emaphakathi idlula iPakistan, futhi ixhumeke Emhubheni Wezokuthutha OseNyakatho naseNingizimu (i-INSTC), lapho i-Iran, i-India ne-Russia engamalungu abalulekile eceleni kweCaucasus kanye nezizwe zase-Asia Ephakathi.
Awudingi i-weatherman ukuze ubone ukuthi umoya uvunguza ngayiphi indlela e-Eurasia; ukuhlanganiswa, yonke indlela.
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