Kufanele simelane nesilingo sokutolika ngokweqile ukhetho lukaTrump njenge-American Eightenth Brumaire noma 1933. Abathuthukisi abacabanga ukuthi bavukele kwelinye izwe kufanele behlise umoya, babambe umoya oqinile, futhi bacabange ngemiphumela yokhetho yangempela evela emazweni asathuthuka. .
Idatha, kunjalo, ayiphelele. Amavoti okuphuma ahamba phambili, njengo-Pew no-Edison, awanawo amaphutha ekutholeni imibono yawo futhi izwi lokugcina mayelana nabavoti kanye nokwakheka kwawo kufanele kulinde imibiko Yocwaningo Lwamanje Lwabantu onyakeni noma emibili ezayo. Noma kunjalo, ukubuyiselwa kweleveli yesifunda kugunyaza ukubonwa okuthile okufanele.
1. Inani labavoti ekuqaleni kwabikwa ukuthi liphansi kakhulu kuno-2012, kodwa ukubuyisela emuva kwesikhathi kubonisa amaphesenti afanayo abavoti (uhlelo lokusebenza. 58%) nakuba kunesabelo esincane seqembu elikhulu. Amaqembu amancane, aholwa amaLibertarians, andise ivoti lawo lisuka ku-2 laya kumaphesenti amahlanu engqikithi.
2. Ngaphandle kwase-Iowa nase-Ohio, akuzange kube khona ukudilika komhlaba kukaTrump ezifundazweni ezibalulekile. Wenza inhlolovo ecishe ifane no-Romney, enza amavoti amancane ezindaweni ezingaphansi kwedolobha ngamavoti amakhulu ezindaweni zasemakhaya ukuze athole umphumela ofanayo. Isilinganiso sakhe sokunqoba esihlangene eWisconsin, eMichigan nasePennsylvania kuhlangene saba yinsingo encane, cishe amavoti ayi-107,000.
3. Isimangaliso esikhulu sokhetho kwakungelona ushintsho olukhulu lwesigaba sabasebenzi abamhlophe kuTrump kodwa kunalokho impumelelo yakhe ekugcineni ukwethembeka kwabavoti bakaRomney, futhi ngempela wathuthuka kancane ekusebenzeni kwalaba bamuva phakathi kwabashumayeli ababukwa njengowokugcina ukhetho lwabo. yima. Ngakho-ke i-populism yezomnotho kanye ne-nativism kuhlanganiswe ngamandla, kodwa akuzange kususe, i-ajenda yendabuko yokulondolozwa kwezenhlalo.
4. Isici esiyinhloko ekuthwaleni amaRiphabhulikhi kwakuyisivumelwano sikaTrump sokungathembeki nabasekeli bezenkolo ngemva kokunqotshwa kuka-Cruz. Ubanike isandla esikhululekile ukuthi babhale inkundla yeqembu eMhlanganweni futhi wabe esehlangana nelinye lamaqhawe abo adumile, uPence wase-Indiana, umKatolika ngegama osonta esontweni elikhulu labavangeli. Impela, okwakusengcupheni yabagwedli abalungile, kwakuwukulawula Inkantolo Ephakeme kanye nethuba lokugcina lokuhlehlisa u-Roe vs Wade. Lokhu kungase kuchaze ukuthi kungani u-Clinton, ongafani no-Obama azivumele ukuthi ahlonzwe ngokuhushula izisu isikhathi eside, engenzanga kahle ngamaphuzu angu-8 phakathi kwamaKhatholika aseLatina/o.
5. Ukuhlubuka kwabavoti baka-Obama abamhlophe besigaba sabasebenzi baka-Obama kuTrump kwaba yisinqumo esibalulekile ikakhulukazi ogwini lwechibi lwezifunda zezimboni eMichigan, Ohio nasePennsylvania - eMonroe, e-Ashtabula, eLorain, womabili ama-Eries, njalo njalo - ahlangabezana nentsha. igagasi lendiza yomsebenzi eliya eMexico nase-US South. Lesi sifunda siyisizinda esibonakala kakhulu sokuvukela ukuhwebelana kwembulunga yonke.
Kwezinye izindawo ezicindezelekile - izifunda zamalahle eziseningizimu-mpumalanga ye-Ohio, ibhande langaphambili le-anthracite empumalanga yePennsylvania, i-Kanawha Valley yaseWest Virginia, i-piedmont textile namadolobhana efenisha aseCarolinas, e-Appalachia ngokuvamile - ukulungiswa kabusha kwe-pro-Republican blue-collar ezombangazwe zikamongameli (kodwa hhayi njalo kupolitiki yasekhaya noma yesifunda) yayisivele iyisimo esikhona. Imithombo yezindaba ijwayele ukuhlanganisa lezi zigaba ezindala nezintsha 'zamaDemocrats alahlekile'; ngaleyo ndlela ikhulisa impumelelo kaTrump.
6. Angikwazanga ukuthola idatha ethembekile mayelana nokuphuma kwabamhlophe abangewona amakolishi ezifundazweni ezibalulekile noma kuzwelonke. Ngokokulandisa okuvelele uTrump ngasikhathi sinye wahlanganisa abangavoti kanye namaDemocrat aguqukile, kodwa okuguquguqukayo kuzimele futhi izisindo zabo azicaci ezifundazweni ezifana neWisconsin noma iVirginia (uClinton ayibambe kancane) lapho ezinye izici ezifana nokuphuma kwabantu abamnyama kanye nosayizi wegebe lobulili. cishe zazibaluleke kakhulu.
7. Iqeqebana elibalulekile labesifazane abamhlophe baseRiphabhulikhi abafundile ekolishi babonakala behlangene noTrump ngesonto lokugcina lomkhankaso ngemuva kokuntengantenga okhethweni lwangaphambilini. Lokhu kubalulwe ngabahlaziyi abambalwa, kuhlanganise noClinton uqobo lwakhe, ukungenelela kuka-Comey okumangazayo futhi kwavuselela ukungabaza ngokwethembeka kwakhe. Ukungavunyelwa kokuziphatha kukaTrump okudlwengulayo, ngaphezu kwalokho, kwaphikisana nokunengeka kukaBill Clinton, u-Anthony Weiner kanye no-Alan Grayson* (umhlukumezi unkosikazi owayephikisana noRubio weDemocratic Alliance eFlorida). Ngenxa yalokho, uClinton wazuza imali encane kuphela, ngezinye izikhathi engazuzi nhlobo, ezindaweni ezibalulekile ezibomvu zaseMilwaukee, ePhiladelphia, nasePittsburgh.
8. Ingxenye yesihlanu yabavoti bakaTrump - okusho ukuthi, cishe abavoti abayizigidi eziyi-12 - babike isimo sengqondo esingesihle kuye. Akumangalisi ukuthi ama-polls akuthola kungalungile. โAsikho isibonelo,โ kubhala i-Washington Post, โkomuntu ozongenela ukhetho esikhundleni sobumongameli abavoti abambalwa abambona emuhle, noma ababheke ngabomvu ukuphatha kwakhe, kunomuntu ohluliwe.โ
Abaningi balaba abaphethe ikhala kungenzeka ukuthi kwakungabavangeli ababevotela inkundla, hhayi indoda, kodwa abanye babefuna ushintsho eWashington nganoma iyiphi intengo, ngisho noma kwakusho ukubeka ibhomu elizibulalayo eHhovisi Le-Oval.
9. Ngisho ne-Cato Institute ibonakala ikholelwa ukuthi ukhetho kufanele luhunyushwe njengokulahlekelwa kukaClinton, hhayi ukunqoba kukaTrump. Uhlulekile ukusondela ekusebenzeni kuka-Obama ngo-2012 ezifundeni ezibalulekile zaseMidwestern naseFlorida. Naphezu kwemizamo yakhe enzima yomzuzu wokugcina, umongameli akakwazanga ukudlulisela ukuthandwa kwakhe (manje okungaphezu kukaReagan ngo-1988) kumbangi wakhe omdala. Okuningi ngo-Sanders.
Yize lokhu okutholakele kuyimpikiswano futhi mhlawumbe kungahunyushwa ngokungeyikho nguDavid Atkins ku-American Prospect, amavoti aphumayo e-Edison/New York Times akhombisa ukuthi uTrump ohlobene noRomney uzuze ukuthuthukiswa okuncane nje kwabaMhlophe, mhlawumbe iphesenti elilodwa nje kuphela, kodwa โwamuhle ngamaphuzu ayi-7. phakathi kwabaNsundu, amaphuzu angu-8 phakathi kwamaLatinos namaphuzu angu-11 phakathi kwabase-Asia baseMelika.โ
10. Ukuthi kwakunjalo noma cha, inani eliphansi labavotile labamnyama eMilwaukee, eDetroit nasePhiladelphia lilodwa lingachaza iningi lokuhlulwa kukaClinton eMidwest. Eningizimu Florida umzamo omkhulu wenze ngcono ivoti leDemocratic Alliance kodwa lokho kwaxazululwa ukuncishiswa kwabavoti (iningi labavoti Abamnyama) ezindaweni zaseTallahassee, Gainesville naseTampa.
11. Akukhona konke lokhu okwanciphisa inani labamnyama, uma sikhuluma kahle, kwaba ukuduba uClinton. Ukucindezelwa kwabavoti ngokungangabazeki kudlale indima ebalulekile uma ingakalinganiswa. โEzinye izifundazwe,โ kubika okunye ukuhlola, โzivale izindawo zokuvota ngezinga elikhulu. E-Arizona, cishe zonke izifunda zanciphisa izindawo zokuvota. E-Louisiana, amaphesenti angama-61 ezifunda anciphisa izindawo zokuvota. ELouisiana, amaphesenti angama-61 ezifunda anciphisa izindawo zokuvota. Kusampula yethu elinganiselwe yezifunda zase-Alabama, amaphesenti angama-67 avale izindawo zokuvota. E-Texas, amaphesenti angama-53 ezifunda zesampula yethu elinganiselwe anciphise izindawo zokuvota.โ Kuphinde kube nobufakazi bokuthi izidingo zikamazisi womvoti obandlululayo - igugu kumqhele we-counter-revolution ka-Scott Walker - zinciphise kakhulu ivoti ezindaweni zabantu abahola kancane e-Milwaukee.
12. Enye incazelo yokungenzi kahle kukaClinton e-Wisconsin nase-Michigan kwaba ukuhlukaniswa kwabavoti be-millennial Sanders: kuzo zombili izifundazwe inani likaJill Stein lalilikhulu kunomkhawulo wokuhlulwa kukaClinton. Ivoti eliluhlaza lalibalulekile ePennsylvania naseFlorida (49,000 kanye nama-64,000 ngokulandelana). Kodwa uGary Johnson, owazuza amavoti angu-4,151,000 kuzwelonke naphezu kokungazi kwakhe ngepolitiki yomhlaba, mhlawumbe ulimaze uTrump kakhulu kunoClinton.
13. Kusukela ekuvukeleni kuka-Howard Dean kwango-2004, amaDemocrat athuthukayo alwela ukukhuphuka ngokumelene nabaholi beqembu ukuze bathole isu eligcwele lezifundazwe ezingama-50 elitshala imali ekwakhiweni kwesisekelo kwezinye izifunda ezibomvu zekhongolose. Ukwehluleka okungaguquki kwe-DNC, ukwenza isibonelo, ukuzibophezela okukhulu ku-Texas Democrats - izwe manje eseyiningi elincane - sekuyisikhathi eside kuyihlazo elisobala.
Umkhankaso kaClinton, ogcwele izimali kodwa ngokusobala ufushane ngobuchopho, wahlanganisa isu elibi. Wehlulekile ngokwesibonelo ukuvakashela eWisconsin ngemuva kweNgqungquthela naphezu kwezixwayiso zokuthi abalandeli bakaScott Walker abaxoshiwe babebhaliswe ngokugcwele ngemuva kukaTrump.
Ngokunjalo usishaye indiva iseluleko sikaNobhala wezoLimo u-Tom Vilsack sokuthi asungule 'umkhandlu wasemakhaya' onjengaye owamsebenzela kahle u-Obama emikhankasweni yakhe yamabanga aphansi eMidwestern kanye nomongameli. Ngo-2012, ukwazile ukwengeza amaphesenti angama-46 amavoti edolobha elincane eningini lakhe elisemadolobheni aseMichigan kanye namaphesenti angama-41 eWisconsin. Imiphumela yakhe ye-desultory ibe ngamaphesenti angama-38 namaphesenti angama-34, ngokulandelana.
14. Okuxakayo ukuthi uTrump kungenzeka ukuthi wasizakala ngenxa yokwesekwa kwakhe okungekuhle kwabakwa-Kochs kanye nabanye abanikela kakhulu, abashintshe izinto ezibalulekile ukuze batshale imali ekusindiseni izikhulu zeCongress of Republican. Esimeni lapho incwadi ka-Comey eya kuCongress yayilingana nenani lama-dollar ayizigidi ezingu-500 zezikhangiso eziphikisana no-Clinton kuyilapho ama-Republican amathikithi aphansi athola umzila wezezimali ongalindelekile.
15. Ukugcizelela kwami โโuhlamvu olungenzeka futhi oluntekenteke lomfelandawonye kaTrump, kufanele luhambisane nesixwayiso mayelana nobuthi bepolitiki yakhe. Njengoba ngike ngaphikisana kwelinye inothi, uTrump akayena uhlu lwezincwadi olukhululekile kanye nosomathuba kunalokho okuvame ukuvezwa. Umkhankaso wakhe ucindezele ngokuhlelekile zonke izinkinobho ezihlotshaniswa ne-white-nationalist alt-right ubaba wayo okungu-Pat Buchanan futhi ozoba u-Goebbels ngu-Stephen Bannon.
U-Trump, uMongameli Obama uyasiduduza, 'akayona imibono.' Kulungile, kodwa iBuchanan-Bannon inamabhakede emibono futhi ibizwa ngokuthi i-fascism. (Kulabo abacabanga ukuthi lokhu kuyihaba nokuthi i-fascism is passรฉ, sicela uye endaweni ka-Buchanan bese upheqela ohlwini lwamakholomu akhe athandwa kakhulu. Omunye usola iPoland ngokuqala kweMpi Yezwe Yesibili kanti omunye ngokuyisisekelo uthi abaNsundu kufanele bakhokhe izinxephezelo. kwabamhlophe.)
16. UDavid Axelrod uthi kuthathe isonto kuphela ukuthi amaRiphabhulikhi 'athumbe' ngokugcwele uTrump futhi uRobert Kuttner uyavuma. Mhlawumbe.
Impela uTrump uzozama ukuhlonipha ukuzibophezela kwakhe kumaKristu futhi awanikeze Inkantolo Ephakeme - umgomo uMitch McConnell angase awulungiselele 'ngenketho yenuzi' eSigele. Ngokunjalo uPeabody, u-Arch kanye nezinye izinkampani zamalahle zizothola izimvume ezintsha zokucekela phansi umhlaba, abokufika bazonikelwa amabhubesi, kanti iPennsylvania izobusiswa ngomthetho onelungelo lokusebenza. Futhi, kunjalo, ukuncishiswa kwentela.
Kepha kwezokuphepha kwezenhlalo, ezokwelashwa, ukusetshenziswa kwemali eshodayo kwingqalasizinda, amanani entengo, ezobuchwepheshe, nokunye, cishe akunakwenzeka ukucabanga umshado ophelele phakathi kukaTrump namaRiphabhlikhi esikhungo ongazenzi izintandane abasekeli bakhe besigaba sabasebenzi. Abamabhange bezindlu zisabusa umhlaba wonke.
17. Ngakho-ke ngeke kube nzima ukucabanga ngesimo esizayo lapho i-alt-right ekugcineni ihlukana noma ixoshwa ekuphathweni futhi ihambe ngokushesha ukuze ihlanganise amandla ezombusazwe wesithathu endaweni enwetshiwe eyinqobile ngenxa ye-degoguery kaTrump. Noma, okunye okungenzeka, ukuthi ukuhweba okungenasisekelo kukaTrump kanye nezinqubomgomo zasekhaya ezingqubuzanayo zifaka izwe ekucindezelekeni okusha futhi iSilicon Valley igcine isukumela phezulu ukuze isindise iDemocratic Party emaphakathi kwesokunxele.
Kepha noma ngabe kuyini umbono, kufanele kubhekwe inguquko yangempela kwezepolitiki yaseMelika, umkhankaso wakwaSanders. Ukuhamba phansi noma okuvinjiwe kwabafundi abaphothule iziqu, ikakhulukazi abavela esigabeni sabasebenzi kanye nezizinda zokufika, kuyiqiniso elivelayo lezenhlalo, hhayi ubuhlungu be-Rustbelt. Ngikusho lokhu ngesikhathi ngiqaphela umfutho onikezwe ubuzwe bomnotho ngokulahlekelwa kwemisebenzi yezimboni eyizigidi ezinhlanu kule minyaka eyishumi edlule, engaphezu kwengxenye yayo eNingizimu.
Kepha i-Trumpism, noma iyavela, ayikwazi ukuhlanganisa usizi lwezomnotho lweminyaka eyinkulungwane naleyo yabasebenzi abamhlophe asebekhulile, ngenkathi uSanders ekhombisa ukuthi ukunganeliseki kwenhliziyo kungalethwa ngaphansi kwesambulela 'sokusebenzelana kwentando yeningi' esibusa amathemba Esivumelwano Esisha soMthethosivivinywa Wamalungelo Wezomnotho. Njengoba ukusungulwa kweDemokhrasi kunesiphithiphithi sesikhashana, ithuba langempela lezinguquko zezombusazwe ('ukulungiswa kabusha okubalulekile' kulwazi lwamagama akudala) ngelikaSanders noWarren. Kufanele sisheshe.
*Inguqulo yangaphambilini yalokhu okuthunyelwe ayizange ibone omele iFlorida osolwa ngokuhlukunyezwa kwasekhaya.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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