UNdunankulu wakwa-Israel uBenjamin Netanyahu uthole ukunqoba okumangazayo, okudlula kude okhethweni lwangaphambi kokhetho kanye nelokuphuma. Imiphumela kuma-Israyeli, amaPalestina, kanye nomhlaba wonke ingaba mibi kakhulu.
Lo mphumela omangazayo ngokungangabazeki uqhamuke ngenxa yenhlanganisela ethile yabavoti bemane beyiphutha kanye namaqhinga kaNetanyahu ngomzuzu wokugcina, okuhlanganisa nokucwasa okusobala kanye nokunxusa abavoti ukuthi bavimbele ukuthi kube nohulumeni oholwa yiNyunyana yeZionist emaphakathi kwesokunxele. . Kodwa kungani kubaluleke kakhulu kunemiphumela.
Yize izingxoxo zamadlelandawonye zingadonsa izinsuku, zingaphothulwa ngokushesha, njengoba kubonakala kusobala ukuthi ubumbano oluzayo luzoba njani. I-Likud izobusa, cishe nezihlalo eziningi ze-Knesset njengoba iwine okhethweni olwedlule, kanye neqembu eliqinile lika-Israel Beiteinu lika-Avigdor Lieberman. Ukuze aqinise isivumelwano, uNetanyahu uzodinga iqembu likaMoshe Kahlon eliphakathi kwesokudla iKulanu, okuzoba yiqembu elilinganiselayo kuhulumeni omusha.
UKahlon angase abambe uNetanyahu okwesikhashana, kodwa cishe uqinisekile ukuthi ekugcineni uzovuma ukujoyina. U-Naftali Bennett kanye nephathi yakhe ye-Jewish Home sebevele baxhumene noNetanyahu. U-Bennett nguyena ohluliwe kakhulu kulo mjaho, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuthi uNetanyahu udlulele phambili kwesokudla, ethatha izindawo eziningi zezombusazwe zikaBennett (okuhloswe ngakho). Ngeza emaqenjini amabili e-ultra-orthodox (i-Shas ne-United Torah Judaism) kanye neqembu lika-Lieberman, elilahlekelwe kakhulu ngenxa yegagasi elikhulu lamahlazo abahlasele ezinyangeni ezedlule, futhi uNetanyahu ubukeka enezihlalo ezingu-66 noma ezingu-67. Iningi lakhe lizobe lihlanganiswe ngokuphelele ilungelo kanye nendawo-kwesokudla.
Naphezu kwalokho amaphutha ngemva kwenye kulo mkhankaso, uNetanyahu uthole ukunqoba okumangalisayo okungekho muntu owakubona kuza. Ekugcineni, iqhinga lakhe lokulwa ohlangothini lwakhe lwesokudla nokukholelwa ukuthi u-Israyeli wayengeke avotele i-central- left to power laphumelela. Ushise iqembu likaBennett njengabavoti abaphiko lwesokudla, impela wethuka lapho ecabanga ngo-Isaac Herzog weLabour Party eHhovisi likaNdunankulu, wavotela uLikud esikhundleni seKhaya lamaJuda.
Ngakho-ke, njengoba sekukhona umfelandawonye ophiko lwesokudla, ingabe uNetanyahu ngeke kusadingeka afakazele i-bona fides yakhe elungile, eqinile? Abanye bangase bathembe kanjalo, kodwa kubonakala kungenakwenzeka.
Ukhetho ngokuqinisekile lwafakazela kuBibi, unomphela, ukuthi abazophikisana naye esikhathini esizayo bazovela kwabafanele, hhayi kwabaphikisayo njengamanje. Umfelandawonye wakhe ngeke nje usekele impi yakhe kodwa uzomfuqa ukuthi awusekele. Lokho ngeke kuhlale kahle eWashington noma eBrussels.
Iran
UNetanyahu cishe uzoyeka ukudonsa ama-flashier stunts ukuze azame ukuqeda isivumelwano senuzi ne-Iran, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi aqhubeke nemizamo yakhe. Uzokhuthaza amaRepublicans ekhongolose ekude, ngezitatimende kwabezindaba kanye nezinkulumo kwa-Israel, hhayi eCapitol Hill. Nakuba kungase kuphuze kakhulu ukuhlanganisa amaDemocrats ngokwanele ukuba anqobe i-veto kaMongameli Obama yomthethosivivinywa omusha wezijeziso, impi yangempela ka-Obama izobe ithengisa isivumelwano emphakathini waseMelika.
Yilapho amaDemocrat amaningi e-hawkish azovela khona. U-Netanyahu ngokuqinisekile uzogcina inkulumo yakhe ephikisana nesivumelwano, futhi ngeke ayeke okwesikhashana. Ngeke libe khona izwi elibalulekile kwa-Israel elizwakalisa ukukhathazeka ngokuqhubeka nokuqhekeka ne-White House. Ukuphikiswa kungenzeka kuthule kakhulu kunalokhu obekukhona kuze kube manje.
Akukho kulokhu okumelela uguquko lwangempela ezimeni zangaphambi kokhetho, kunjalo. Okuwukuphela kombuzo osabele kaNetanyahu ukuthi ngabe ukwehla okukhulu okhethweni alwenzile kukhombisa ukukhathazeka kwangempela komphakathi mayelana nokusingatha kwakhe ingxabano ngenkulumo yakhe phambi kweCongress. Kungenzeka kakhulu, ngakho-ke uNetanyahu uzokhetha amaqhinga amancane kakhulu.
AmaPalestine
Uma izinto bezibukeka zingenathemba ngaphambili nganoma yiluphi uhlobo lwezingxoxo, zimbi kakhulu manje. UNetanyahu uqinisekile ukuthi uzoqhamuka nohlobo oluthile lwenkulumo ekabili ukuze "achaze" ukuthi ubengaqondile ukuphika isixazululo semibuso emibili, njengoba wenza ngokucacile ngesikhathi somkhankaso. Kodwa ngeke akubuyisele emuva kakhulu, njengoba ngisho namaqembu akumfelandawonye okungenzeka ukuthi amasha afuna ukubona izingxoxo ziqala kabusha (Kulanu, futhi kancane, u-Israel Beiteinu kanye ngokunokwenzeka noShas) awakusekeli ukubusa kwemibuso emibili. isisombululo esingabonwa yinoma ngubani ngaphandle kwabo njengesinye.
Lokho kuzoletha ubunzima obuthile kosopolitiki base-US. Kungenzeka ukuthi u-Obama akhethe uhlobo oluthile lwengcindezi, kungaba ngendlela yokwethula uhlaka lwaseMelika lwesixazululo semibuso emibili noma, ngokunokwenzeka, ngesinqumo soMkhandlu Wezokuphepha esiphusha ukuthi kuqedwe umsebenzi. Izosabela kanjani iCongress?
AmaRiphabhulikhi azothola ithuba lokusekela ngokugcwele uNetanyahu ngokumelene no-Obama. Kodwa ukwenza kanjalo kusho futhi ukumjoyina ekuphikisaneni nesixazululo semibuso emibili. KumaDemocrats, kuzoba cishe akunakwenzeka ukwenza lokho, noma ngabe yiziphi izingcindezi zasekhaya ezilethwa phezu kwawo. Umphakathi wamaJuda ojwayelekile uyaqhubeka nokusekela isixazululo semibuso emibili. Uma izikhungo zayo ezihamba phambili zizama ukulandela uNetanyahu endleleni yakhe, ukuhlukana emphakathini wamaJuda kuzokhula, futhi amaJuda amaningi ajwayelekile azobe ephakamisa amazwi awo ephikisana nezinqubomgomo zakwa-Israel.
Esimweni esinjalo, abaphikisi bakwa-Israyeli bangase bahlangane. Ukunqoba kuka-Likud okumangalisayo nokumangazayo kusibekela iqiniso lokuthi iqembu lesibili, lesithathu, nelesine ngobukhulu ku-Knesset elandelayo lizoba ngamaqembu aphikisayo. Kodwa iqembu lesithathu, i-Joint List, lihlanganiswe ngokuphelele namaqembu angekho iqembu elivamile lakwa-Israel - ngaphandle kweMeretz engakwesokunxele, okubukeka sengathi izoba nezihlalo ezine kuphela - izohlangana. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi Uhlu Oluhlangene lwakhiwe amaqembu amathathu amancane ama-Arab kanye neqembu elilodwa lamaKhomanisi lamaJuda nama-Arab.
Ngakho-ke, nakuba abaphikisayo belawula izihlalo ezingaba ngu-53, baphuma kulolu khetho bebuthaka kunalokho ngenxa yendlela amaqembu ama-Arab abukwa ngayo kwa-Israel. Lokho kuzofiphaza amandla aphikisayo avele abuthakathaka ngaphakathi kwe-Knesset, okwenza kube nzima ngisho nokunciphisa ukwakhiwa kwezindawo zokuhlala, ingasaphathwa eyokuthola isivumelwano namaPalestine futhi kuphele umsebenzi.
Okuwukuphela kwethemba, elincanyana kakhulu, ukuthi i-United States ne-Europe ekugcineni bacikekile nge-Netanyahu kanye nokwenqaba okuqinile kwelungelo lakwa-Israel ukuthula kangangokuthi ekugcineni bazoba nengcindezi enkulu. Nakuba kubonakala sengathi i-United States ne-European Union zizokwenza okuthile, mancane kakhulu amathuba okuthi zizokwenza noma yikuphi eduze ngokwanele ukuze uhulumeni wakwa-Israel ezwe ingcindezi noma abantu bakwa-Israel bakhule bekhathazeke ngokwanele ukuthi bathathe isinyathelo.
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