“Namuhla, uma siye e-Iraq, njengoba umongameli angathanda ukuthi senze, uyazi ukuthi uqala kuphi. Awazi ukuthi uzophelelaphi.” - George F. Kennan, Ngo-September 26, i-2002
“Ngiyakubuza, mnumzane, lenzani ibutho laseMelika ngaphakathi kwe-Iraq?… Indaba kaSaddam isiqedwe cishe iminyaka emithathu.” - UMongameli Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wase-Iran kuMike Wallace ngemizuzu engamashumi ayisithupha, Agasti 13, 2006
Edolobheni elicekeleke phansi i-Fallujah, izakhiwo zalo eziphaphathekile zaphonswa izikhali zasolwandle ekuhlaselweni okukhulu okubili kwale mpi ende (ukuhlasela okuhoxisiwe kukaMashi 2004 kanye nomkhankaso we-al-Fajr (The Dawn) ogcwele igazi, wokunqoba ngoNovemba olandelayo) , ngemva kolayini bezikhwama zesanti ezinkulu nezindonga zikakhonkolo zika-T nocingo oluhlabayo olwaluzungeza ibutho elincane laseMelika elibhekene nezinkinga lapho, ngahlala ngezingubo zami zempi kanye nesigqoko sikaKevlar futhi ngacabanga ngoGeorge F. Kennan. Hhayi ikhehla elikhulu le-American diplomacy, uBaba weContainment oneminyaka engamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye nesishiyagalombili owathi, elalele izigubhu zempi esekhaya lasebekhulile eWashington ekwindla ka-2002, wakhuluma amazwi ayisiprofetho angenhla. Bengicabanga ngoKennan wangaphambilini, usopolitiki osemusha okhaliphile futhi onesifiso sokuvelela okwathi ngasekupheleni kwawo-1920 nawo-1930 wabuka uhlelo oluwohlokayo lwaseYurophu oluvela eTallinn naseBerlin nasePrague futhi ngafunda izimpawu zengxabano yomhlaba ezayo.
Ngoba lapho esikhungweni sokusebenza se-Civil-Military Operations Centre (esaziwa ngokuthi i-C-Moc) edolobheni lase-Fallujah, lapho ama-Marines ambalwa kanye nedlanzana labantu ababehlala ebhilidini elibhidliziwe ngaphandle kwamanzi noma ukudla okusha, ngahlangana nabancane. Ukuphindukuzalwa kukaKennan kumuntu wesikhulu soMnyango Wezwe: insizwa ekhanyayo, enolaka eyachitha izinsuku zayo zamahora angamashumi amabili igubha imigwaqo eyonakele igqoke isigqoko sokuzivikela kanye nesigqoko kanye nabaphelezeli bayo baseMarine ababemanqikanqika, behlangana nezikhulu zasendaweni zase-Iraqi, futhi bebhala tart. amakhebuli abuyela e-Baghdad noma e-Washington etshela abaphathi bakhe iqiniso lalokho okwakwenzeka phansi, nakuba babemanqikanqika ukukuzwa. Lo mmeli osemncane wayehlakaniphile futhi ehlakaniphile futhi engakhathali, futhi ngenkathi ngimbuka encokola futhi ephikisana no-sheikh bendawo kanye nezombusazwe kanye nochwepheshe - ababehlangana, njengoba babephoqelekile, endaweni yaseMelika - ngacabanga ngo-Kennan osemncane ongenamandla. weminyaka yezimpi, nokuthi, uma umzamo waseMelika e-Iraq ungenziwa “usebenze,” izinsizwa ezingenavalo nezibona kude njengalena, umlandeli wakhe ongokomoya, zingakwenza kwenzeke.
Lokhu kwakungu-Okthoba 2005, ngosuku olwandulela inhlolovo yezwe lonke mayelana nomthethosisekelo ohlongozwayo wase-Iraq, futhi ngangize e-Fallujah, inhliziyo yesifundazwe esihlubukayo sase-Anbar, ukuze ngibone ukuthi amaSunni angakwazi yini ukuqoqa amandla ezombusazwe ukuze awuvotele phansi. Esimisweni ekuqaleni okwakugcizelelwa amaKurds, inhlinzeko eyayifanekisela inqubo yezombusazwe eyaklanywa eMelika eyayihloselwe ukuhlanganisa izwe kodwa eyasiza ukulihlukanisa ngokungenakugwenywa, umthethosisekelo ohlongozwayo ungase unqatshwe uma, emazweni amathathu ase-Iraq. izifundazwe eziyishumi nesishiyagalombili, ngaphezu kwababili kwabathathu base-Iraqi abeza okhethweni bavotele inombolo. Okhethweni lokuqala lwangemva kukaSaddam ngoMasingana owandulele, isiphithiphithi esisakazwa kuthelevishini “sokunyakazisa iminwe ensomi” okungenzeka ukuthi kwaba yisona esidume kakhulu “sezinguquko” eziningi ezithenjisiwe zale mpi ende, amaSunni aduba ukuvota. Kulokhu, ngemva kwemizamo kaHerculean yokuncenga nokuxoxisana nenxusa laseMelika, iningi lamaSunni bekulindeleke ukuba livote. Okungabadonsela, nokho - noma kunjalo kwakuwubuhlakani obujwayelekile - kwakuyithuba lokungaqinisekisi umthethosisekelo kodwa lokuwuqeda, kanye nenqubo yezepolitiki kanye nawo.
Ngakho-ke njengoba ngangihlezi phakathi kwamabili ngobusuku obandulela ukuvota, ngibhala encwadini yami yokubhalela endaweni ekhanyiswe kalufifi ye-C-Moc njengoba usopolitiki osemusha engichazela ubunkimbinkimbi bepolitiki yedolobha elihlaselwe, ngajabula ukumbona ngokuphazima kweso. ncika phambili futhi, ngokubheka ngokushesha nhlangothi zombili, unginikeze ukuzethemba. “Uyazi kusasa uzomangala,” esho ekhulumela phansi. “Wonke umuntu uzomangala. Abantu lapha abagcini ngokuvota. Abantu lapha - abantu abaningi lapha - bazovota yebo. ”
Ngamangala. Ukuthi amaSunni azophumela obala azokweseka umthethosisekelo kungaba uguquko olumangalisayo futhi, ngomzamo waseMelika e-Iraq, omuhle kakhulu; ngoba kungasho ukuthi naphezu kodlame olwandayo phansi, ikakhulukazi lapha e-Anbar, i-Iraq empeleni yayibheke ekuvumelaneni okungekuhle kwezombusazwe. Kungasho ukuthi ngaphansi kwezwe eligcwele igazi lokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu nokubulawa kwabantu kanye namabhomu aseceleni komgwaqo umqondo ovamile ngezombangazwe nokuyekethisa wawuqala ukuvela. Bekungasho ukuthi lokho osekubonakale kuyinqubo yezepolitiki enganakwanga futhi eyaba yimbi nakakhulu ukuhlukana okukhulayo phakathi kwama-Iraqi empeleni kwase kuyindlela yokubahlanganisa. Kungasho ukuthi kungase kube khona ithemba.
Ngawathatha amazwi alo sokhulumela osemncane njengohlaka olubalulekile lwangaphakathi oluvela kubantu baseMelika abawazi kangcono le ndawo kunanoma yimuphi omunye, futhi ngawagcina engqondweni ngemva kwamahora ambalwa ngisuka endaweni yokuvota ngiya endaweni yokuvota kulelo dolobha eliyimfucumfucu, ngilalele ngesikhathi abakwa-Fallujan bengitshela ngentukuthelo yabo kubantu baseMelika kanye “nama-Irani” (njengoba babebabiza kanjalo osopolitiki abangamaShiite abaphambili) kanye nenzondo yabo ngomthethosisekelo ababekholelwa ukuthi wawuhloselwe ukuhlukanisa futhi ngaleyo ndlela ucekele phansi i-Iraq. Ngazindla ngamazwi kasopolitiki ngalobo busuku, lapho ngibona ukuthi osukwini olude lwezingxoxo ngangingakaze ngihlangane noyedwa wase-Iraqi owayezovuma ukuvotela umthethosisekelo. Futhi ngacabanga amazwi akhe futhi ngemva kwezinsuku ezimbalwa lapho kuqinisekiswa ukuthi esifundazweni sase-Anbar - lapho umMelika onolwazi kakhulu, onolwazi, futhi ongakhathali wayengithululele isifuba ngalokho ayekukholelwa ngokusobala, ukuthi ngevoti elibucayi kumthethosisekelo abantu abaningi bazovota yebo” - ukuthi e-Anbar abangamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye nesikhombisa kwabayikhulu base-Iraqi abavotile bavotele ukuthi cha. Ngakho konke ukuxhumana kwakhe nokuzibophezela kwakhe, ngawo wonke amandla akhe nobuhlakani bakhe, odabeni oluyisisekelo nolubucayi lwezepolitiki emhlabeni ubenephutha ngokuphelele.
1.
“Uyazi ukuthi uqala kuphi. Awazi ukuthi uzophelelaphi.”
UGeorge F. Kennan oneminyaka engamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye nesishiyagalombili ubudala, ehlezi ekhaya lasebekhulile eWashington njengoba impi iqala, wayazi kusukela eminyakeni engamashumi ayisishiyagalombili yesipiliyoni sokugxila kuqala enkingeni yalokho esikwaziyo nesingakwazi. . Uyazi, noma uchitha izinsuku zakho ezingapheli, ezikhungathekisayo ukhuluma nama-Iraqis, ubanxenxa, uphikisana nabo, ukuthi ezweni elihlaselwe impi enonya neyinkimbinkimbi labo basebenzi base-Iraqis bathathwa eqenjini elincane nelikhethekile labantu: ama-Iraqis bazimisele ukubeka izimpilo zabo engozini ngokuhlangana futhi bakhulume nabaseMelika. Okusho ukuthi, imvamisa, ama-Iraqi athembele kubantu baseMelika hhayi kuphela ukuze baziphilise kodwa ukuze baphile.
Uyazi ukuthi ulwazi oludwetshwa yilaba bantu base-Iraqi lulinganiselwe ngendlela efanayo, nokuthi lokho abakudluliselayo kukhethiwe ngokwako, ngokwezinga elikhulu noma elincane, ukuze kujabulise umxhumanisi wabo. Kodwa noma wazi ukuthi ulwazi lwakho oluningi luvela ocezwini oluncane, oluchemile ngokwemvelo lwepolitiki yase-Iraqi kanye nempilo yase-Iraq, amakhulukhulu ezingxoxo ngalezo zinsuku ezinzima zamahora angamashumi amabili ekugcineni ziholela ekubeni ucabange, kumele zikuholele ekucabangeni ukuthi uyeza. ukuqonda ukuthi kwenzakalani kule ndawo exakile, enodlame. Ufika ukholwe ukuthi uyazi. Futhi kaningi, ngisho nangezinto ezinkulu kakhulu, awazi.
Njengoba lolu lwazi oluyigugu oluntengayo luhamba “lukhuphuka iketango” lusuka kulabo abasendaweni egcwele igobolondo, eliyingozi luluqoqela kulabo abasemahhovisi aseWashington ekugcineni benza izinqumo ezisekelwe kulo, inkinga yalokho esikwazi ngempela iyakhula, ithola ubunzima obukhulu. . Abenzi benqubomgomo, bebheka okwesibili, okwesithathu, okwesine ezweni elimnyama, kufanele bafunde isiguli, ukungabaza okuthobekile. Noma-ke, lapho bebhekene neqiniso elingaqondakali abangalithandi, bayafulathela, bashaye indiva indawo enesithunzi, enyakazayo futhi baphoqelele amehlo abo ngenkani ekukhanyeni kwemibono yabo. Abakwazi ukuthola ukucaca, bayakuphoqa. Ngokwesibonelo, cabanga, lawa mazwi kaDonald H. Rumsfeld, ekhuluma ngempi yase-Iraq ngoNovemba 9, ezinsukwini ezimbili ngemva kokhetho kanye nosuku ngemva kokuba uMongameli Bush emxoshile:
“Kusobala ukuthi izimpi ezinkulu beziyimpumelelo enkulu. Kuyacaca ukuthi esigabeni sesibili salokhu bekungahambi kahle noma akusheshi ngokwanele.”
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